Reading failure in elementary school is highly correlated with future academic and social problems. Schools commonly use Tier 2 reading interventions in Response to Intervention (RtI) frameworks to help close the gap between at-risk readers and their peers who read on grade-level. This dissertation presents the findings of a quasi-experimental research study of the effects of three Tier 2 reading interventions in an urban Title I elementary school's RtI framework. A regression discontinuity design (RDD) with two cutoff points was used to assign 320 students in grades 1-6 to two types of Tier 2 reading interventions administered by paraeducators: direct instruction (DI) and computer-assisted instruction (CAI). Students were assigned using normal curve equivalent reading composite scores on the Kaufman Test of Educational Achievement II, Brief Form (KTEA-II BFR). Students scoring below a lower cutoff were assigned to a DI reading intervention, while students scoring at or below an upper cutoff and above the lower cutoff were assigned to CAI reading interventions. January and May posttest iterations of the KTEA-II BFR served as outcome measures for all students. Results of the analysis indicated that the DI intervention was more effective than the CAI interventions at the lower cutoff (p < .01). Participation in CAI interventions was not any more or less effective than business-as-usual reading activities (p > .10). These findings suggest that that CAI programs may not be as helpful in closing the achievement gap between struggling students and their peers as DI interventions, and should be implemented with deliberation.

This thesis studies regression discontinuity designs with the use of additional covariates for estimation of the average treatment effect. We prove asymptotic normality of the covariate-adjusted estimator under sufficient regularity conditions. In the case of a high-dimensional setting with a large number of covariates depending on the number of observations, we discuss a Lasso-based selection approach as well as alternatives based on calculated correlation thresholds. We present simulation results on those alternative selection strategies.:1. Introduction 2. Preliminaries 3. Regression Discontinuity Designs 4. Setup and Notation 5. Computing the Bias 6. Asymptotic Behavior 7. Asymptotic Normality of the Estimator 8. Including Potentially Many Covariates 9. Simulations 10. Conclusion

The age-cutoff regression discontinuity design (RDD) has emerged as one of the most rigorous quasi-experimental approaches to determining program effects of prekindergarten on literacy and numeracy outcomes for children at kindergarten entry. However, few pre-K meta-analyses have focused attention on validity threats. The current random-effects meta-regression tests the moderating effects of prominent threats to validity, selection bias and sensitivity, on impact estimates generated from age-cutoff regression discontinuity studies from large-scale programs. Results from averaging dependent standardized mean difference effects suggested small positive moderating effects of total attrition and robust 3-month bandwidths on reading effects, but not on math. However, these results were not statistically significant. In contrast, results generated from robust variance estimation yielded a small statistically significant association between total attrition and math effects. These mixed results may warrant further research on prekindergarten evaluation methodology, evaluation estimation methods, and the totality of evidence used to inform policy.

Essay I (with Mattias Öhman): Fluoridation of the drinking water is a public policy whose aim is to improve dental health. Although the evidence is clear that fluoride is good for dental health, concerns have been raised regarding potential negative effects on cognitive development. We study the effects of fluoride exposure through the drinking water in early life on cognitive and non-cognitive ability, education and labor market outcomes in a large-scale setting. We use a rich Swedish register dataset for the cohorts born 1985-1992, together with drinking water fluoride data. To estimate the effect we exploit intra-municipality variation of fluoride, stemming from an exogenous variation in the bedrock. First, we investigate and confirm the long-established positive relationship between fluoride and dental health. Second, we find precisely estimated zero effects on cognitive ability, non-cognitive ability and education. We do not find any evidence that fluoride levels below 1.5 mg/l have negative effects. Third, we find evidence that fluoride improves labor market outcome later in life, which indicates that good dental health is a positive factor on the labor market. / Essay II: Motivated by the intense public debate in the United States regarding politicians’ backgrounds, I investigate the effects of electing a candidate with earlier experience from elective office to the House of Representatives. The U.S. two-party-system with single-member election districts enables me to estimate the causal effect in a RD design where the outcomes are measured at the election district level. I find some indications that candidates with earlier elective experience are more likely to be members of important congressional committees. I also find some indications that directed federal spending (pork barrel spending) is higher in those districts were the elected representative had earlier elective experience prior of being elected to the House, but the effect manifests itself some years after the election. In contrast, I find no robust or statistically significant effects for personal income per capita or unemployment rate in the home district. / Essay III: This paper uses Swedish and Finnish municipal data to investigate the effect of changes in voter turnout on the tax rate, public spending and vote-shares. A reform in Sweden in 1970, which overall lowered the cost of voting, is applied as an instrument for voter turnout in local elections. The reform increased voter turnout in Sweden. The higher voter turnout resulted in higher municipal taxes and greater per capita local public spending. There are also indications that higher turnout decreased the vote share for right-wing parties. I use an individual survey data set to conclude that it was in particular low income earners that began to vote to a greater extent after the reform. / Essay IV (with Lovisa Persson): In a theoretical model where voters and politicians have different preferences for how much to spend on basic welfare services contra reception services for asylum seekers, we conclude that established politicians that are challenged by right-wing populists will implement a policy with no spending on asylum seekers if the cost is high enough. Additionally, adjustment to right-wing populist policy is more likely when the economy is in a recession. Voters differ in their level of private consumption in such a way that lower private consumption implies higher demand for basic welfare services at the expense of reception of asylum seekers, and thus stronger disposition to support right-wing populist policies. We propose that this within-budget-distributional conflict can arise as an electorally decisive conflict dimension if parties have converged to the median voter on the size-of-government issue.

Political Finance Reform and Public Procurement:  Evidence from Lithuania. Can political donations buy influence? This paper studies whether firms trade political contributions for public procurement contracts. To answer this question, I focus on the Lithuanian political economy. Combining data on a large number of government tenders, the universe of corporate donors and firm characteristics, I examine how a ban on corporate donations affects the awarding of procurement contracts to companies that donated in the past. Consistent with political favoritism, contributing firms’ probability of winning goes down by five percentage points as compared to that of non-donor firms after the ban. Among different mechanisms, the hypothesis that corporate donors get confidential information on competing bids prevails. The empirical results are in line with predictions from a first-price sealed-bid auction model with one informed bidder. Evidence on firm bidding and victory margins suggests that contributing firms adjust their bids in order to secure contracts at a maximum revenue. I assess that tax payers save almost one percent of GDP thanks to the reform. Gender Quotas and the Quality of Politicians. We analyze the effects of the introduction of gender quotas in candidate lists on the quality of elected politicians, as measured by the average number of years of education. We consider an Italian law which introduced gender quotas in local elections in 1993, and was abolished in 1995. As not all municipalities went through elections during this period, we identify two groups of municipalities and use a difference-in-differences estimation. We find that gender quotas are associated with an increase in the quality of elected politicians, with the effect ranging from 0.12 to 0.24 years of education. This effect is due not only to the higher number of elected women, who are on average more educated than men, but also to the lower number of low-educated elected men. The positive effect on quality is confirmed when we measure the latter with alternative indicators, it persists in the long run and it is robust to controlling for political ideology and political competition. Affirmative Action and the Power of the Elderly. There is evidence that age matters in politics. In this article we study whether implementation of affirmative action policies on gender can generate additional effects on an alternative dimension of representation, namely, the age of politicians. We consider an Italian law which introduced gender quotas in candidate lists for local elections in 1993, and was abolished in 1995. As not all municipalities went through elections during this period, we can identify two groups of municipalities and use a difference-in-differences estimation to analyze the effect of gender quotas on the age of elected politicians. We find that gender quotas are associated with election of politicians that are younger by more than one year. The effect occurs mainly due to the reduction in age of elected male politicians and is consistent with the optimizing behavior of parties or of voters. Let the Voters Choose Women. Female under-representation in politics can be the result of parties' selection of candidates and/or of voters’ electoral preferences. To assess the impact of these two channels, we exploit the introduction of Italian Law 215/2013, which prescribes both gender quotas on candidate lists and double preference voting conditioned on gender. Using a regression discontinuity design, we estimate that the law increases the share of elected female politicians by 22 percentage points. The result is driven by the increase in preference votes cast for female candidates, suggesting a salient role of double preference voting in promoting female empowerment in politics.

Cette thèse évalue l'impact économique des politiques de qualité liée à l'origine en mobilisant des méthodes d'évaluation que nous adaptons à la spécificité des démarches de certification, notamment à leur dimension spatiale. Dans un premier temps, nous analysons l'effet de l'adoption d’une Appellation d’Origine Protégée (AOP) sur le prix ainsi que sur les coûts de production des producteurs de lait AOP en Franche-Comté, en exploitant la discontinuité géographique à la frontière (Geographic Regression Discontinuity). Dans un second temps, nous utilisons les méthodes d'appariement statistique pour analyser les hétérogénéités régionales en termes de prix et de coûts de production entre les régions Auvergne, Rhône-Alpes et Franche-Comté avant de nous intéresser aux effets à une échelle nationale. Enfin, nous évaluons l'effet de l'adoption d'une Indication Géographique Protégée (IGP) sur les prix payés aux producteurs de Café de Colombie à l'aide des méthodes comparatives (synthetic control methods). En moyenne, les résultats montrent un effet positif de l'adoption de l'indication géographique sur la performance économique des exploitations. Cependant, cet effet est hétérogène entre les filières et les régions d'origine des produits. / This thesis evaluates the economic impact of quality-related-to-origin policies using evaluation methods adapted to the specificity of such certifications, in particular, the spatial dimension. First, we analyze the effect of a Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) adoption on price and production costs of PDO milk producers in Franche-Comté using a Geographic Regression Discontinuity (GRD) design. Secondly, we use propensity matching methods to analyze regional heterogeneity in Auvergne, Rhône-Alpes, and Franche-Comté before focusing on the effect of the PDO adoption at a national level. Finally, we evaluate the effect of the adoption of a Protected Geographical Indication (PGI) on prices paid to Colombian coffee producers using synthetic control methods. Overall, we find that PDO and/or PGI adoption is associated with positive effects on farmers' economic performances. However, these effects are not homogeneously distributed.

Submitted by Fernanda Patriota Salles Ribeiro (fernandapsr@gmail.com) on 2015-02-22T16:17:22Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_02_22_RIBEIRO.pdf: 2900653 bytes, checksum: 3225b281df8fb5f8111a58db4d850612 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-02-23T23:03:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_02_22_RIBEIRO.pdf: 2900653 bytes, checksum: 3225b281df8fb5f8111a58db4d850612 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-02-24T13:41:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_02_22_RIBEIRO.pdf: 2900653 bytes, checksum: 3225b281df8fb5f8111a58db4d850612 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-06 / Este estudo visa avaliar o impacto das transferências de recursos incondicionais nos indicadores de saúde dos municípios brasileiros. A transferência abordada refere-se ao Fundo de Participação dos Municípios (FPM), tal recurso não possui uma destinação pré-definida pelo Governo Federal, porém pelo menos 15% do seu valor deve ser gasto em saúde pública. A base de dados utilizada teve como principais fontes o DATASUS e o SIOPS, a periodicidade é anual e a unidade de observação refere-se aos municípios. Para estimar o impacto do FPM na mortalidade, na morbidade e nas medidas preventivas, foram aplicadas duas metodologias econométricas: Painel com efeito fixo e Regressão Descontínua. A primeira abrangeu o período de 2002 a 2011 e os resultados encontrados mostram que o FPM possui um impacto negativo significante na mortalidade total e para os indivíduos de 15 a 29 anos, 30 a 59 anos e 60 anos ou mais. Em relação à morbidade, os modelos em Painel com efeito fixo mostraram um impacto negativo do FPM sobre as internações hospitalares. Para as medidas preventivas, as estimações apresentaram resultados não significantes ou então opostos ao esperado. O método da Regressão Descontínua foi também aplicado, pois o FPM apresenta características de descontinuidade, o que traz a possibilidade de uma aplicação econométrica cada vez mais utilizada e que possui uma estratégia de identificação que deve levar a resultados similares aos de um experimento aleatório. O período utilizado para tal estimação refere-se aos anos de 2002 a 2010. A partir desse método, verificou-se resultados bastante sutis em relação ao impacto do FPM sobre os indicadores de saúde: para mortalidade o FPM não apresentou impacto significativo e robusto, para morbidade novamente foi encontrado um impacto negativo e significante, e, por fim, para as medidas preventivas o resultado mais robusto refere-se às consultas do Programa Saúde da Família, em que o FPM apresentou impacto positivo e significante para alguns dos coeficientes gerados. / This study assesses the impact of unconditional resources transfers in health indicators of Brazilian municipalities. The approached transfer refers to the Participation Fund of Municipalities (Fundo de Participação dos Municípios – FPM), this feature does not have a pre-defined allocation by the Federal Government, but at least 15% of its value should be spent on public health. The database used had as main sources DATASUS and SIOPS, the periodicity is annual and the observation unit refers to the municipalities. To estimate the impact of the FPM in mortality, morbidity, and on preventive measures, we applied two econometric methodologies: Panel with fixed effects and Regression Discontinuity Design - RDD. The first covered the period 2002-2011 and the results show that the FPM has a significant negative impact on total mortality and for individuals 15-29 years, 30 to 59 years and 60 years or more. In terms of morbidity, the models in Panel with fixed effects showed a negative impact of FPM on hospitalizations. To preventive measures, the estimates didn’t show significant results or the coefficients are opposites of the expected. The RDD method was also used because FPM has discontinuity characteristics, which brings the possibility of an econometric application increasingly used and that has an identification strategy that should lead to results similar to those of a random experiment. The period used refers to the years 2002 to 2010. From this method, the estimated results were quite subtle: the FPM hadn't significant and robust impact for mortality, for morbidity was found again a negative and significant impact, and finally, for preventive measures the only robust result refers to the queries of the Family Health Program, in which the FPM had a positive and significant impact on some of the generated coefficients.

Submitted by Natalia de Souza Gonçalves (natalia.goncalves@ufpe.br) on 2016-10-05T14:44:59Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Tese Weily.pdf: 509791 bytes, checksum: 9e7541b3c1184f4080201af7941c73e9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-05T14:44:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Tese Weily.pdf: 509791 bytes, checksum: 9e7541b3c1184f4080201af7941c73e9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-26 / Capes / Este estudo é dividido em três capítulos. Usando dados diários para os estados Brasileiros e técnicas de regressão descontínua, verificamos a influência de um experimento natural, induzido pelo Horário de Verão (HV), no cotidiano das pessoas através de dois canais: (a) distúrbios do sono e (b) luminosidade. As seguintes variáveis de interesse são analisadas: 1) Internações hospitalares decorrentes de complicações relacionadas a diabetes mellitus; 2) Homicídios provocados por arma de fogo; 3) Mortes por infarto agudo do miocárdio. No primeiro capítulo, utilizando dados do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares (SIH/DATASUS), do Ministério da Saúde do Brasil, exploramos o impacto da privação do sono, provocada pelo HV, sobre as internações de indivíduos que tem Diabetes Mellitus (DM). O estudo traz fortes indícios de que a entrada do HV aumenta internações por DM em 6-8% nos estados adotantes da política, enquanto nenhuma variação ocorre nos estados não tratados. No segundo capítulo, usando dados do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade (SIM/DATASUS), analisamos o impacto dessa política sobre o número homicídios. Encontramos evidências robustas em favor de uma redução em torno de 14% no número de homicídios nos estados tratados. Este efeito se concentra principalmente em horas que antes do HV eram escuras e após a transição passaram a ser claras. Novamente, as estimativas para os estados não tratados não apresentam nenhuma significância. No terceiro capítulo, também com dados do SIM/DATASUS, analisamos o efeito do HV sobre mortes decorrentes de infarto agudo do miocárdio. Nos Estados que adotam a política, há um aumento de 7-8,5% no número dessas mortes, e nenhuma relação estatística para os estados que não adotam a política. / This thesis consists of three chapters. Using daily data for Brazilian states and regression discontinuity techniques, we assess the impact of a natural experiment, induced by Daylight Saving Time (DST), on people’s daily life through two channels: (a) sleep disturbances, and (b) ambient light. The following outcomes are studied: 1) Hospital admissions due to complications related to diabetes mellitus; 2) Homicides caused by fire arms; 3) Deaths due to myocardial infarction. In the first chapter, using data from Sistema de Informações Hospitalares (SIH/DATASUS), provided by the Brazilian Health Ministry, we assess the impact of sleep deprivation, caused by DST transition, on the number of hospital admissions related to Diabetes Mellitus (DM). The study provides credible findings that the DST entrance transition increases this type of hospital admission in 6-8% in the states that adopt DST while no significant effect is found in the states that do not adopt the policy. In the second chapter, using data from Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade (SIM/DATASUS), we analyze the impact of this policy on the number of homicides caused by fire arms. Robust evidence of a reduction in the number of homicides, of around 14%, is presented for the treated states. This effect is concentrated especially in hours that were dark before DST and turned to be illuminated after the transition. Again, estimated effects for non-treated states are not statistically different from zero. In the third chapter, which also exploited data from SIM/DATASUS, we analyze the effect of DST transition on deaths due to acute myocardial infarction. There is a 7-8.5% increase in the number of deaths due to this cause in the treated state and no statistically significant change for the untreated states.

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2017-05-16T12:41:19Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) tesefinal-versaodigital+fichacatalografica-folhaaprovacao-18062016.pdf: 1114800 bytes, checksum: b2507a8668fc2d4b3298aac9fd5d6c04 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-16T12:41:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) tesefinal-versaodigital+fichacatalografica-folhaaprovacao-18062016.pdf: 1114800 bytes, checksum: b2507a8668fc2d4b3298aac9fd5d6c04 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-16 / A tese apresenta três ensaios com o objetivo de avaliar políticas públicas e seus efeitos sobre mudanças de lei envolvendo pequenas empresas (Lei JOBS e Simples Nacional) e acidentes em rodovias federais, conectados por meio da abordagem de Desenho de Regressao Descontinua. O primeiro ensaio pretende explorar os efeitos da lei JOBS (Jumpstart Our Business Startups, JOBS), que promoveu o financiamento aos projetos ao aliviar regulamentos de valores mobiliários, sobre a arrecadação e financiadores no mercado de financiamento coletivo. Os resultados, indicam que a lei afetou os níveis de arrecadação em 75% para projetos de start’ups, em especial aos relativos a tecnologia e Design, e, de forma semelhante, em 59% os financiadores dos projetos. O segundo ensaio tem por objetivo avaliar os efeitos da política do horário de verão sobre acidentes nas rodovias federais brasileiras. Os resultados apontam que nos Estados onde a política do horário de verão foi utilizada como tratamento, os acidentes sofreram redução de 14%. O terceiro ensaio busca avaliar os efeitos da desoneração da carga tributária e geração de empregos para as pequenas empresas da indústria brasileira. Através da adoção ao programa Simples Nacional como estratégia de identificação, implementado no Brasil em 2007, aumentou a faixa de faturamento para até R$ 2.400 milhões e a adesão de empresas elegíveis. Ao trazer benefícios de redução do custo operacional industrial e proporcionar folga financeira às empresas, possibilitou a geração de empregos. Os resultados apontam que as empresas que realizaram a adoção ao programa obtiveram benefícios de redução do custo operacional industrial em 23%, o que possibilitou um aumento positivo na geração de emprego de 21.5% a 23.85% para pessoal ocupado total e ligado à produção, respectivamente. De forma semelhante, apresentou evidências de que houve consequente aumento na folha de salários de 25.18% a 26.98%, contribuindo para a manutenção do programa do Simples Nacional. / The thesis has three essays to evaluate public policies and their effects on law changes involving small businesses (JOBS Act and Simples Nacional) and accidents on federal highways connected through Regression discontinuous design approach. The first essay aims to explore the effects of the JOBS Act (Jumpstart Our Business Startups, JOBS), which promoted the funding to projects to alleviate securities regulations on the raised and financiers in the collective crowdfunding market. The results indicate that the law affected the raised levels by 75 % to start’ups projects, especially those relating to technology and design, and, similarly, in 59% funders of projects. The second essay is to evaluate the effects of DST’s policy on accidents in Brazilian federal highways. The results show that in the states where the DST policy has been used as a treatment, accidents were reduced by 14 %. The third essay aims to evaluate the effects of the National Simple Act implemented in Brazil in 2007, by reducing the tax burden, promoted benefits such as job creation and wage increases of small businesses in the Brazilian industry. The results show that companies that have undertaken to adopt the program obtained concessions that enabled positive increase in the generation of employment 21.5 % to 23.85 %. Similarly, it presented evidence that there was a consequent increase in wages of 25.18 % and 26.98 % for staff salaries, contributing to maintenance of the National Simple program.

Submitted by Geandra Rodrigues (geandrar@gmail.com) on 2018-06-14T12:49:23Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tauamagalhaesvital.pdf: 1157943 bytes, checksum: b82b68f320daf8c911fbb74c2bd54ea6 (MD5) / Rejected by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br), reason: on 2018-06-14T12:51:19Z (GMT) / Submitted by Geandra Rodrigues (geandrar@gmail.com) on 2018-06-14T12:52:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tauamagalhaesvital.pdf: 1157943 bytes, checksum: b82b68f320daf8c911fbb74c2bd54ea6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-06-27T15:07:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tauamagalhaesvital.pdf: 1157943 bytes, checksum: b82b68f320daf8c911fbb74c2bd54ea6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-27T15:07:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tauamagalhaesvital.pdf: 1157943 bytes, checksum: b82b68f320daf8c911fbb74c2bd54ea6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-20 / O objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar o impacto que as guardas municipais exercem na taxa de criminalidade, e ainda avaliar se o uso de armamentos letais ou não-letais por parte dessas guardas impacta de alguma na redução do crime. A metodologia a ser empregada consiste em dois métodos, diferenças-em-diferenças com correção espacial e o método de regressão descontínua (regression discontinuity design – RDD). O primeiro método visa avaliar o impacto das guardas municipais na taxa de crimes entre os anos de 2004 e 2012, visto que houve um grande aumento no número de municípios com guardas municipais dentro deste período. O segundo método analisa o uso de armas letais ou não-letais por parte das guardas municipais no ano de 2009 a partir da descontinuidade em torno dos municípios com cinquenta mil habitantes, valor este definido pelo Estatuto do Desarmamento, que estabelecia que apenas municípios com população superior a este valor poderiam possuir guardas municipais com armamentos letais. Os resultados encontrados apontam que a presença de guarda municipal, bem como o uso de armas de fogo pela mesma, não impacta significativamente a taxa de criminalidade / The aim of this dissertation is to evaluate the impact of municipal guards on the crime rate, and also to evaluate if the use of lethal and non-lethal weapons by these institutes cause any impact in crime. The methodology consists of two methods, spatial differences in differences and the regression discontinuity design (RDD). The first method is to evaluate the impact of municipal guards on the crime rate between 2004 and 2012, since there was a large increase in the number of municipalities that implemented municipal guards within this period. The second method analyzes the impact of the use of lethal or non-lethal weapons by municipal guards in 2009, as a result of the discontinuity around municipalities with fifty thousand inhabitants, a value defined by the Disarmament Statute, which established that only municipalities with population above this value could have municipal guards with lethal armaments. The results indicate that the presence of municipal guard, as well as the use of firearms by them, does not significantly impact the crime rate.