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In the past decades, decentralization has become increasingly important in both developing and developed countries. Based on the standard decentralization theorem, policy makers believe that local governments are closer to citizens and know more about local contexts and needs than the national governments. Consequently, they can design policies leading to a more efficient allocation of public goods. Moreover, when accompanied by empowerment of local decision-makers, decentralization is supposed to make local politicians more accountable to voters in a way that national politicians are not. Yet, the effective implementation of decentralization policies may heavily rely on local institutions. This thesis contributes to a rising literature analyzing the political economics of decentralization, that is the extent to which local political dynamics may reinforce or jeopardies decentralization reforms, ultimately affecting the citizens' well-being. I consider three countries that have devolved power to local politicians to a different extent, and tackle three obstacles that may undermine the beneficial effects of decentralization reforms: first, strong political competition at the local level; second, the need for coordinating the provision of a local public good; the interaction between political competition and coordination needs on accountability and eventually the quality of a local public good. Political competition may hinder the beneficial effects of decentralization on stability in a post-war country like Burundi. After a long-lasting and devastating civil war, in 2010 Burundi organized the first local elections, with the hope of establishing political stability through democratic means. However, together with two co-authors, I show that such political decentralization partly failed. We use a unique dataset and geographic fixed effects to show that violence was higher in municipalities characterized by fierce political competition and acute polarization between demobilized rebel groups. The former protagonists of the civil war used the elections as another stage to engage in a stiff struggle for power, and used “specialists of violence” to illicitly steer the electoral outcome.Political dynamics may undermine the coordinated management of the local sewerage networks in Brazil. I use geospatial data to proxy for the scope of coordination between neighboring municipalities: municipalities that are close “enough” are those more exposed to the spreading of water-borne diseases, which ultimately justifies cross-boundary coordination of local sanitation networks. By exploiting a Regression Discontinuity Design in close municipal elections, I show that political alignment between neighboring mayors may lead to lower access to sanitation networks of households. I argue that mayors co-managing a public good have a stronger incentive to monitor each other and ensure effective coordination when they come from different political parties, essentially because of political competition. Mayors from the same party would tend instead to be more lenient to each other, ultimately undermining the quality of the local public good co-provided.Finally, I study the effect of decentralization on the accountability of local politicians co-managing local police in Belgium. In 2005, one of the regions of Belgium introduced the direct election of mayors, while in the rest of the country mayors remained appointed by the local city councils. Together with a co-author, I exploit this reform to show that crime incidence in municipalities affected by the reform decreased faster than anywhere else in the country. We argue that the direct election of mayors increase the accountability of mayors and their incentives to fight criminality. However, we find that the effects of the reform decrease when an increasingly larger number of neighboring mayors has to coordinate the local police. The need to coordinate the local police blur accountability, mitigating the effects of the reform. To conclude, the overarching message of the thesis is that local institutions matter for the implementation of decentralization policies. Policy-makers redesigning the distribution of power between levels of government need to take into account pre-existing political and institutional dynamics that could jeopardize their policy initiatives. In particular, policy-makers could envision decentralization “at different speeds”, enabling local actors to identify objectives of development together with the right tools to pursue them, and finally decentralize accordingly. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This study explores the effects humanitarian interventions have on the human right status in a country. The theoretical standpoint is based on the notion that a perceived lack of accountability and repercussions for crimes committed will function as motivation for local actors to continue the human right violations, or even increase their efforts. Therefore, the working hypothesis of the study is notion that the human right violations will increase because of the presence of a humanitarian intervention. Through the use of the Cingranelli-Richards dataset, an internationally recognized source of quantitative data for human right indicators between 1981 and 2011, an indication on the effect of humanitarian interventions is provided. This is done through a method referred to as Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), commonly used to measure the effect of a specific treatment. The results indicate that the prevalence of physical violations, such as torture and extrajudicial killings, decrease because of the intervention. However, the freedom of freely moving in and out of the country deteriorates following an intervention. The other human rights indicators proved not to be statistically significant meaning that no relationship could be determined. All in all, contrary to the theoretical narrative the assumed lack of repercussions did not provide enough incentive for further increasing human right violations. However, the practical implementations of the results are positive. Because no confirmed relationship apart from in the case of physical rights was proven it means that humanitarian interventions avoid facing a severe argument to cancel the concept which a confirmed relationship would have meant.

This thesis identifies the effect of traditional political coalitions on the left-right spectrum in Swedish municipal politics on economic outcomes such as Municipal Revenues, Expenditures, Net-expenditures, Municipal Tax-rates, Unemployment, and the share of Municipal Employment. To do so, varying time spans of Swedish municipal data from 1994-2017 are used in a regression discontinuity design, basing its identification on quasi-random variation created by close municipal elections. The results indicate that the left-leaning Red-Green coalition has no isolated impact on economic variables when considering the entire sample, but seems to have a significant impact on some economic variables compared to others when the sample is restricted to decrease the number of mixed coalitions in the sample. These results indicate that the increase in mixed governing coalitions in recent years could have watered down the clear left-right dimension in Swedish politics found in previous research.

At what age people ought to be given the right to vote has become a salient issue in both contemporary Western politics and political science. A prevalent argument opposing lowering the voting age to 16 asserts that 16- and 17-year-olds lack the necessary political competence required of voters. However, the validity of this argument rests upon the assumption that adolescents do not attain the required competence upon enfranchisement. While the idea that political competence improves when given the vote can be traced back to 19th century political theory, empirical investigations of this claim remain scarce. In this thesis, I address this gap in the literature by applying a regression discontinuity (RD) design using eligibility to vote as the cut-off. By surveying the political theory regarding requirements for voting rights, I identify political knowledge and communicative skills as the most relevant competencies. No effect of being eligible to vote can be found on the former, while the results concerning communicative skills are inconclusive and sensitive to model specifications. These findings are consistent with previous RD-studies within this field: gaining the right to vote does not seem to have a significant effect on political knowledge. This study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the age of enfranchisement.

Essay 1 (with Mikael Elinder): We show that house prices in general did not respond to a large cut in the property tax in Sweden. Our estimates are based on rich register data covering more than 100,000 sales over a time period of two and a half years. Because the Swedish property tax is national and thus unrelated to local public goods, our setting is ideal for causal identification of the property tax on house prices. Our result that house prices did not respond to the tax cut at the time of implementation cannot be explained by early capitalization at the time of announcement. Two other stories appear to explain our results. First, it is possible that house buyers expect an offsetting increase in the supply of housing. Second, house buyers might simply not understand how the tax cut affects total future costs of owning a house. Unfortunately, it has proven difficult to disentangle the two mechanisms, and we must therefore conclude that both may be relevant. Essay 2:  I investigate government consumption smoothing (sensitivity) under a balanced budget rule in Swedish municipalities. In general, I find Swedish municipalities to be highly consumption sensitive. Municipalities consume 87.6% out of predicted current revenues in the time period leading up to the implementation of the balanced budget rule, and they consume 76.3% out of predicted current revenue in thetime period following the implementation. Fiscally weak municipalities are found to be more consumption sensitive than fiscally strong municipalities. Very weak municipalities have become more consumption sensitive compared with very strong municipalities since the implementation of the balanced budget rule. Thus, I find indicative evidence that both credit market constraints and formal budget rules such as balanced budget rules increase municipal consumption sensitivity Essay 3: Using the Swedish municipal sector as my political laboratory, I study the effect of a coalition partner on policy outcomes. I use a version of Regression-Discontinuity Design (RDD) specifically suited to proportional systems to define close elections, which can be used for identifying the effect of the Left Party as coalition partner to the Social Democrats. The Left Party is found to have a positive and medium sized effect on the municipal income tax rate. The positive effect is in line with what we expect given the policy preferences of Left Party representatives, but also given the predictions from political fragmentation theory. I find no effects on expenditures or debt, and the negative result for investments is not robust. Essay 4 (with Linuz Aggeborn): In a model where voters and politicians have different preferences for how much to spend on basic welfare services contra immigration, we conclude that established politicians that are challenged by right-wing populists will implement a policy with no spending on immigration if the cost of immigration is high enough. Additionally, adjustment to right-wing populist policy is more likely when the economy is in a recession. Voters differ in their level of private consumption in such a way that lower private consumption implies higher demand for basic welfare services at the expense of immigration, and thus stronger disposition to support right-wing populist policies. We propose that this within-budget-distributional conflict can arise as an electorally decisive conflict dimension if parties have converged to the median voter on the size-of-government issue. / <p>Felaktigt isbn: 978-91-85519-61-3</p>

Dans ma thèse, je me sers de modèles de recherche solides pour répondre à des questions importantes de politique publique. Mon premier chapitre évalue l’impact causal de l’allégeance partisane (républicain ou démocrate) des gouverneurs américains sur le marché du travail. Dans ce chapitre, je combine les élections des gouverneurs avec les données du March CPS pour les années fiscales 1977 à 2008. En utilisant un modèle de régression par discontinuité, je trouve que les gouverneurs démocrates sont associés à de plus faibles revenus individuels moyens. Je mets en évidence que cela est entrainée par un changement dans la composition de la main-d’oeuvre à la suite d’une augmentation de l’emploi des travailleurs à revenus faibles et moyens. Je trouve que les gouverneurs démocrates provoquent une augmentation de l’emploi des noirs et de leurs heures travaillées. Ces résultats conduisent à une réduction de l’écart salarial entre les travailleurs noir et blanc. Mon deuxième chapitre étudie l’impact causal des fusillades qui se produisent dans les écoles secondaires américaines sur les performances des éléves et les résultats des écoles tels que les effectifs et le nombre d’enseignants recruté, a l’aide d’une stratégie de différence-en-différence. Le chapitre est coécrit avec Dongwoo Kim. Nous constatons que les fusillades dans les écoles réduisent significativement l’effectif des élèves de 9e année, la proportion d’élèves ayant un niveau adéquat en anglais et en mathématiques. Nous examinons aussi l’effet hétérogene des tueries dans les écoles secondaires entre les crimes et les suicides. Nous trouvons que les fusillades de natures criminelles provoquent la diminution du nombre d’inscriptions et de la proportion d’élèves adéquats en anglais et mathématiques. En utilisant des données sur les élèves en Californie, nous confirmons qu’une partie de l’effet sur la performance des élèves provient des étudiants inscrits et ce n’est pas uniquement un effet de composition. Mon troisième chapitre étudie l’impact des cellulaires sur la performance scolaire des élèves. Le chapitre est coécrit avec Richard Murphy. Dans ce chapitre, nous combinons une base de données unique contenant les politiques de téléphonie mobile des écoles obtenues à partir d’une enquète auprès des écoles dans quatre villes en Angleterre avec des données administratives sur la performance scolaire des éleves. Nous étudions ainsi l’impact de l’introduction d’une interdiction de téléphonie mobile sur le rendement des éleves. Nos résultats indiquent qu’il y a une augmentation du rendement des éleves après l’instauration de l’interdiction des cellulaires à l’école, ce qui suggère que les téléphones mobiles sont sources de distraction pour l’apprentissage et l’introduction d’une interdiction à l’école limite ce problème. / In my thesis, I use compelling research designs to address important public policy issues. My first chapter estimates the causal impact of the party allegiance (Republican or Democratic) of U.S. governors on labor market outcomes. I match gubernatorial elections with March CPS data for income years 1977 to 2008. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that Democratic governors are associated with lower average individual earnings. I provide evidence that this is driven by a change in workforce composition following an expansion in employment of workers with low and medium earnings. I also find that Democratic governors cause a reduction in the racial earnings gap between black and white workers through an increase in the annual hours worked by blacks relative to whites. My second chapter analyze how shootings in high schools affect schools and students using data from shooting databases, school report cards, and the Common Core of Data. The chapter is co-written with Dongwoo Kim. We examine schools’ test scores, enrollment, and number of teachers, as well as graduation, attendance, and suspension rates at schools that experienced a shooting, employing a difference-in-differences strategy that uses other high schools in the same district as the comparison group. Our findings suggest that homicidal shootings significantly decrease the enrollment of students in Grade 9, and reduce test scores in math and English. We find no statistically significant effect for suicidal shootings on any outcome variables of interest. Using student-level data from California, we confirm that some of the effects on student performance occur as a result of students remaining enrolled and not only due to changes in student body composition. My third chapter investigates the impact of school mobile phone policy on student performance. The chapter is co-written with Richard Murphy. Combining a unique dataset on autonomous mobile phone policies from a survey of schools in four cities in England with administrative data, we investigate the impact of imposing a mobile phone ban on student performance. Our results indicate an improvement in student results after a school bans the use of mobile phones; this suggests that mobile phones distract learning and imposing a ban limits this problem.

With educational effectiveness studies, school-level aggregates of students' characteristics (e.g. achievement) are often used to assess the impact of school composition on students' outcomes – school compositional effects. Empirical findings on the magnitude and direction of school compositional effects have not been consistent. Relevant methodological studies raise the issue of under-specification at level 1 in compositional models - evident when the student-level indicator on which the aggregation is based is mis-measured. This phenomenon has been shown to bias compositional effect estimates, leading to misleading effects of the aggregated variables – phantom compositional effects. My thesis, consisted of three separate studies, presents an advanced methodological framework that can be used to investigate the effect of school composition net of measurement error bias. In Study 1, I quantify the impact of failing to account for measurement error on school compositional effects as used in value added models of educational effectiveness to explain relative school effects. Building on previous studies, multilevel structural equation models are incorporated to control for measurement error and/or sampling error. Study 1a, a large sample of English primary students in years one and four (9,059 students from 593 schools) reveals a small, significant and negative compositional effect on students' subsequent mathematics achievement that becomes more negative after controlling for measurement error. Study 1b, a large study of Cyprus primary students in year four (1694 students in 59 schools) shows a small, positive but statistically significant effect that becomes non-significant after controlling for measurement error. Further analyses with the English data (Study 2), demonstrates a negative compositional effect of school average mathematics achievement on subsequent mathematics self-concept – a Big Fish Little Pond Effect (BFLPE). Adjustments for measurement and sampling error result in more negative BFLPEs. The originality of Study 2 lies in verifying BFLPEs for students as young as five to eight/nine years old. Bridging the findings related to students' mathematics self-concept (Study 2) and the findings on students’ mathematics achievements (Study 1a), I demonstrate that the prevalence of BFLPEs with the English data partly explains the negative compositional effect of school average mathematics achievement on students' subsequent mathematics achievement. Lastly, in Study 3 I consider an alternative approach to school accountability to conventional value added models, namely the Regression Discontinuity approach. Specifically, I use the English TIMSS 1995 primary (years four and five) and secondary (years eight and nine) data to investigate the effect of one extra year of schooling on students' mathematics achievement and the variability across schools in their absolute effects. The extent to which school composition, as given by school average achievement, correlates with schools' added-year effects is addressed. Importantly the robustness of the RD estimates to measurement error bias is demonstrated. My findings have important methodological, substantive and theoretical implications for on-going debates on the school compositional effects on students' outcomes, because nearly all previous research has been based on traditional approaches to multilevel models, which are positively biased due to the failure to control for measurement error.

長久以來，性別不平等的狀況持續存在著，尤其在勞動市場方面。在所有能增進性別平等狀況的管道中，本研究檢驗台灣高中職以下的性別平等教育課程，對於學生未來職場上的性別態度之影響。我們假設，當人們覺得性別不平等狀況是不公平的（或覺得性別平等狀況是公平的），代表他/她具有正向的性別態度。利用台灣社會變遷調查2005年第五期第一次：工作與生活組之資料，以及迴歸不連續性設計（Regression Discontinuity Design）暨次序分對數模型（Ordered Logit Model），實證結果顯示女性在勞動市場中處於較不利的位置；性別平等教育對學生未來職場上的性別態度無顯著影響；女性，或受較高等教育者，或對於工作成就感到公平者，具有較顯著的正向性別態度。 / Gender inequity has always been there in the labor market. This paper examines how gender equity education in elementary and high schools affects students’ attitudes towards gender inequity issues in the future. This paper assumes that if people feel gender inequity is unfair, (or feel gender equity is fair), they have positive gender attitudes. Results derived from the data from 2005 Taiwan Social Change Survey (Round 5, Year 1): Work Orientation by using Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) as well as the Ordered Logit Model suggest that women indeed lag behind men in the labor market and that gender equity education has no significant effect on students’ gender attitudes. Females, people with higher education level, and people who feel their current achievement is fair have significantly more positive gender attitudes.

Essay 1 (with Oskar Nordström Skans): This paper provides field evidence on the causal impact of past successes on future performances. Since persistence in success or failure is likely to be linked through, potentially time-varying, ability it is intrinsically difficult to identify the causal effect of succeeding on the probability of performing well in the future. We therefore employ a regression discontinuity design on data from professional golf tournaments exploiting that almost equally skilled players are separated into successes and failures half-way into the tournaments (the “cut”). We show that players who (marginally) succeeded in making the cut substantially increased their performance in subsequent tournaments relative to players who (marginally) failed to make the cut. This success-effect is substantially larger when the subsequent (outcome) tournament involves more prize money. The results therefore suggest that past successes provide an important prerequisite when performing high-stakes tasks. Essay 2: Recent experimental evidence suggests that women in general are more discouraged than men by failures which potentially can explain why women, on average, are less likely than men to reach top-positions in firms. This paper provides the first quasi-experimental evidence from the field on this issue using data from all-female and all-male professional golf tournaments to see if this result can be replicated among competitive men and women. These top-performing men and women are active in an environment with multiple rounds of competition and the institutional set-up of the tournaments makes it possible to causally estimate the effect of the result in one tournament on the performance in the next. The results show that both male and female golfers respond negatively to a failure and that their responses are virtually identical. This finding suggests that women’s difficulties in reaching top-positions in firms are caused by external rather than internal barriers. Essay 3: Voting is a fundamental human right. Yet, individuals that are younger than 18 do typically not have this right since they are considered uninformed. However, recent evidence tentatively suggests that the political knowledge of youths is endogenous to the voting age. I test for the existence of such dynamic adjustments utilizing voting age discontinuities caused by Swedish laws. I employ a regression discontinuity strategy on Swedish register data to estimate the causal effect of early age voting right on political knowledge around age 18. The results do not support the existence of positive causal effects of early age voting right on political knowledge. Thus, we should not expect that 16-year-olds respond by acquiring more political knowledge if they are given the right to vote. This finding weakens the case for a lowering of the voting age from 18 to 16. Essay 4 (with Lena Hensvik): We postulate that firms’ production losses  from absence depend on the employees’ internal substitutability, incentivizing firms to keep absence low in positions with few substitutes. Using Swedish employer-employee data we show that absence is substantially lower in such positions even conditional on establishment and occupation fixed effects. The result reflects sorting on both entry and exit margins, with stronger separations responses when it was difficult to predict the absence of the employees beforehand. These findings highlight that internal substitution insures firms against production disruptions caused by absence and that absence costs are important aspects of firms’ hiring and separations decisions.