This is a case study of the political situation in Sweden where a present and growing far-right has generated an outcome of political fragmentation. The process between this probable cause and outcome will be investigated to find the best possible explanation for how an isolated party could generate the outcome of political fragmentation despite their denied political participation with the other parties. The process will be analyzed through mainstream parties’ political discourse about the far-right and how they give expression for their strategies to deal with their presence. This will be done through an abductive discourse-pathway analysis, wherein mainstream parties’ dynamics towards the far-right and how it has changed over time will be analyzed. The result from the analysis showed that there are three possible outcomes when dealing with the far-right: political fragmentation, political unity and political polarization. The conclusion is that political fragmentation occurs when mainstream parties are pulled in different directions regarding what strategies to use when they ought to deal with a growing far-right presence.

Essay 1 (with Mikael Elinder): We show that house prices in general did not respond to a large cut in the property tax in Sweden. Our estimates are based on rich register data covering more than 100,000 sales over a time period of two and a half years. Because the Swedish property tax is national and thus unrelated to local public goods, our setting is ideal for causal identification of the property tax on house prices. Our result that house prices did not respond to the tax cut at the time of implementation cannot be explained by early capitalization at the time of announcement. Two other stories appear to explain our results. First, it is possible that house buyers expect an offsetting increase in the supply of housing. Second, house buyers might simply not understand how the tax cut affects total future costs of owning a house. Unfortunately, it has proven difficult to disentangle the two mechanisms, and we must therefore conclude that both may be relevant. Essay 2:  I investigate government consumption smoothing (sensitivity) under a balanced budget rule in Swedish municipalities. In general, I find Swedish municipalities to be highly consumption sensitive. Municipalities consume 87.6% out of predicted current revenues in the time period leading up to the implementation of the balanced budget rule, and they consume 76.3% out of predicted current revenue in thetime period following the implementation. Fiscally weak municipalities are found to be more consumption sensitive than fiscally strong municipalities. Very weak municipalities have become more consumption sensitive compared with very strong municipalities since the implementation of the balanced budget rule. Thus, I find indicative evidence that both credit market constraints and formal budget rules such as balanced budget rules increase municipal consumption sensitivity Essay 3: Using the Swedish municipal sector as my political laboratory, I study the effect of a coalition partner on policy outcomes. I use a version of Regression-Discontinuity Design (RDD) specifically suited to proportional systems to define close elections, which can be used for identifying the effect of the Left Party as coalition partner to the Social Democrats. The Left Party is found to have a positive and medium sized effect on the municipal income tax rate. The positive effect is in line with what we expect given the policy preferences of Left Party representatives, but also given the predictions from political fragmentation theory. I find no effects on expenditures or debt, and the negative result for investments is not robust. Essay 4 (with Linuz Aggeborn): In a model where voters and politicians have different preferences for how much to spend on basic welfare services contra immigration, we conclude that established politicians that are challenged by right-wing populists will implement a policy with no spending on immigration if the cost of immigration is high enough. Additionally, adjustment to right-wing populist policy is more likely when the economy is in a recession. Voters differ in their level of private consumption in such a way that lower private consumption implies higher demand for basic welfare services at the expense of immigration, and thus stronger disposition to support right-wing populist policies. We propose that this within-budget-distributional conflict can arise as an electorally decisive conflict dimension if parties have converged to the median voter on the size-of-government issue. / <p>Felaktigt isbn: 978-91-85519-61-3</p>

Cette thèse de doctorat s’inscrit dans le domaine des finances publiques et des choix publics et s’articule autour des questions de polarisation idéologique, décentralisation et conflit. Elle est composée de trois chapitres qui peuvent être lus de façon indépendante. Dans le premier chapitre l’accent est mis sur l’importance de la polarisation idéologique entre mais aussi à l’intérieur des partis politiques sur le niveau et la composition des dépenses publiques cantonales. L’analyse est menée au niveau des parlements cantonaux suisses et repose sur l’exploitation et le traitement économétrique d’une base de données très riche.Nous avons fait deux contributions à la littérature sur l’impact de fragmentation politique sur les dépenses publiques.Premièrement, nous avons montré que la dispersion idéologique à l’intérieur des partis politiques est associée à des dépenses publiques plus élevées alors que la dispersion entre partis est associée avec moins de dépenses publiques. Cette constatation implique que le mode d’organisation et la discipline au sein des partis politiques ont de l’importance. Ce résultat est particulièrement intéressant car la littérature précédente a fait abstraction de la dispersion idéologique au sein des partis. Ensuite, nous avons montré que la dispersion idéologique est principalement pertinente pour les dépenses de fonctionnement. Le deuxième chapitre s’intéresse au conflit d’objectifs qui peut exister entre agents économiques dans le cadre d’un jeu en deux étapes avec paiements asymétriques. La littérature a montré que les défaillances de coordination sont fréquentes dans les jeux en une étape et que la communication peut aider les individus à se coordonner par l’emploi de stratégies de take turn pour réduire l’inégalité des gains à long terme. Notre contribution a été d’étudier si la communication a la même capacité dans un jeu en deux étapes où l’équilibre parfait en sous-jeux exige que les deux joueurs fassent des choix opposés aux deux étapes du jeu et acceptent des gains inégaux. Nos résultats montrent que les défaillances de coordination se produisent la moitié du temps et que 18% des paires utilisent la stratégie de take turn. La communication augmente considérablement la coordination sur l’équilibre parfait en sous-jeux car elle augmente la capacité des sujets à amorcer une stratégie de take turn et à la maintenir. Elle leur permet d’établir une stratégie de long terme qui accroît l’efficacité tout en diminuant les écarts de paiements, induits par les gains asymétriques, en échangeant leurs positions relatives d’une manière équitable. Nos résultats montrent que la communication peut résoudre les conflits de coordination, même dans des situations plus complexes que dans les jeux en une étape généralement étudiés jusqu’à présent. Le dernier chapitre s’intéresse à un type de conflit particulier : la sécession politique. Plus précisément il traite du lien entre sécession, décentralisation et identité de groupe. Nous essayons de déterminer, au moyen d’une expérience de laboratoire, si décentraliser l’offre de biens publics permet de réduire la probabilité de faire sécession. Nous mettons en exergue l’importance de l’identité au niveau local. Le protocole expérimental ne permet évidemment pas de reproduire l’ensemble des arbitrages auxquels les mouvements séparatistes font face dans le monde réel. Il permet, néanmoins, de capturer deux forces essentielles: la proximité avec le bien public qui réduit les phénomènes de passagers clandestins et rapproche le bien public des préférences du citoyens et l’importance des identités locales. Nos résultats indiquent que la décentralisation augmente les contributions aux biens locaux et diminue la probabilité de sécession aussi lorsque l’identité locale est rendue saillante. En fait, une forte identité locale augmente la probabilité de sécession seulement lorsque les membres des groupes locaux sont des coopérateurs et qu’ils contribuent aux bien publics locaux. / This PhD thesis falls within the fields of public finance and public choice. It studies the following issues: ideological polarization, decentralization and conflict. It consists of three chapters can be read independently. In the first chapter the focus is on the importance of ideological polarization between but also within political parties on the level and composition of cantonal public spending. The analysis is on Swiss cantonal parliaments and is based on the use and econometric treatment of a very rich database. We made two contributions to the literature on the impact of political fragmentation on public spending. First, we showed that ideological dispersion within political parties is associated with higher public spending while the dispersion between political parties is associated with less public spending. This finding implies that the mode of organization and discipline within political parties are both important. This result is particularly interesting given that previous literature has completely abstracted from ideological dispersion within political parties. Lastly, we showed that ideological dispersion between and within political parties is mainly relevant for current expenditures. The second chapter focuses on the conflict of objectives that may exist between economic agents in a two-stage game with asymmetric payoffs. The literature showed that coordination failures are frequent in one-stage games and that communication can help individuals coordinate with the use of take turn strategies that allow for a reduction in the payoffs’ inequality in the long run. Our contribution was to study whether communication has the same capacity in a two-stage game where the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium requires both players to make opposite choices at both stages of the game and accept unequal payoffs. Our results show that coordination failures occur half of the time and that 18% of the pairs use the take turn strategy. Communication significantly increases coordination on the subgame perfect Nash equi librium because it increases the ability of subjects to initiate a take turn strategy and to maintain it. Thus, communication allows subjects to establish a long-term strategy that increases efficiency and reduces payments differences, induced by the asymmetry in payoffs, by exchanging their relative positions in a fair way. Our results show that communication can solve coordination conflicts, even in more complex situations than in one-stage games usually studied until now. The last chapter focuses on a particular type of conflict: political secessions. Specifically, it addresses the link between secessions, decentralization and group identity. We aim at determining, by means of a laboratory experiment, if decentralizing the provision of public goods reduces the likelihood of secession. We emphasize the importance of local identity. Our experimental design, obviously, do not reproduce all the trade-offs that separatist movements face in the real world. It allows, however, capturing at least two key forces that drive these movements: the proximity to public goods that reduces the phenomena of free-riding and brings public goods closer to citizens’ preferences and the importance of local identities. Our results indicate that the Decentralization treatment increases contributions to local public goods and decreases the likelihood of secessions also when identity is made more salient. If fact, reinforcing local group identity increases the likelihood of secession only when local group members are cooperators.

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.