Cette thèse s’articule autour de trois essais. Le premier chapitre analyse l'impact des 27 ans de guerre civile en Angola sur les dépenses par équivalent adulte, le capital humain et la fécondité. La prédiction des effets de la guerre se fait à l’aide d’un modèle néoclassique de ménage unitaire dans la tradition de Rosenzweig. A partir de l’approche d’estimation par variable instrumentale, cette thèse montre que la guerre civile a un impact négatif et désastreux à court terme sur la santé des enfants, cet effet est persistant. La guerre civile n’a pas d’impact sur les dépenses par équivalent adulte. Elle accroit lascolarisation et décroit la fécondité à court terme. Le second chapitre de cette thèse analyse l’efficacité d’un programme social dans un environnement en conflit comme celui de l’Angola et s’interroge si cette efficacité dépend de l’intensité du conflit. Notre stratégie d’identification est basée sur la géographie politique du déploiement du programme basée sur un modèle de compétition spatiale à la Hotelling. Cette thèse montre que le Fond Social Angolais a eu un impact positif sur les dépenses par équivalent adulte et sur l’une des principales mesures anthropométriques à savoir le z-Score de la taille pour âge. L’efficacité du programme en fonction de l’intensité du conflit est analysée à l’aide de l’estimateur de variable instrumental local. La thèse montre que l’efficacité du programme augmente avec l’intensité du conflit. Le dernier chapitre de cette thèse analyse dans le cas du Cameroun, l’impact de la formation des enseignants en matière de VIH/SIDA. Les deux critères retenus pour le choix des écoles participant au programme, nous amène à choisir comme stratégie d’identification la régression discontinue. Cette thèse montre que les filles âgées de 15 à 17 ans dans les écoles traitées sont moins susceptibles d’avoir une grossesse involontaire. Pour les élèves âgés de 12 à 13 ans, la probabilité d'abstinence auto déclarée et l'utilisation du préservatif est également significativement plus élevé dans les écoles traitées / This thesis is based on three essays. The first chapter analyses the impact of 27 years of civil war in Angola on human capital, expenditures per adult equivalent and fertility. The prediction of the effects of civil war is done through a neoclassical unitary household model in the tradition of Rosenzweig. Using instrumental variable method, this thesis shows that civil war has a negative and disastrous impact in short-Term on health of children, this effect is persistent. Civil war has no impact on expenditures per adult equivalent. It increases enrollment and decreases fertility in the short term. The second chapter ofthis thesis analyzes the effectiveness of a social program in a conflict country such as Angola and explores whether this effectiveness depends on the intensity of the conflict. Our identification strategy is based on the political geography of the deployment of the program based on a model of spatial competition of Hotelling. This thesis shows that the Angola Social Fund had a positive impact on expenditures per adult equivalent and on one of the main anthropometric measurements namely the height for age z-Score. The program's effectiveness in function to the intensity of the conflict is analyzed using the local instrumental variable estimator. The thesis shows that the program's effectiveness increases with the intensity of the conflict. The last chapter of this thesis analyzes in the case of Cameroon, the impact of teacher training on HIV/AIDS. The two criteria for selecting participating schools, leads us to choose as identification strategy the regression discontinuity design. This thesis shows that 15 to 17 year old girls in teacher training schools are between 7 and 10 percentage points less likely to have started childbearing. For 12 to 13 year old girls, the likelihood of self-Reported abstinence and condom use is also significantly higher in treated schools.

L’aléa moral est une source de distorsion économique. La prédiction classique dans un cadre simple est qu’une meilleure couverture conduit à un effort moindre. Cette thèse étudie dans quelle mesure cette prédiction est ou non vérifiée empiriquement dans des cadres plus complexes. Le premier chapitre s’intéresse aux absences pour raison de santé. La politique étudiée est le jour de carence pour arrêt maladie dans la fonction publique de l’Etat en France. Cette politique de remboursement moins généreuse a notamment pour but de réduire l’absentéisme. Elle conduit à une baisse de la prévalence des absences de courte durée. Mais elle conduit aussi à une hausse de la prévalence des absences de longue durée. En conséquence, la prévalence de l’ensemble des absences pour raison de santé reste inchangée. Les deux chapitres suivants s’intéressent aux systèmes de bonus-malus d’un assureur automobile irlandais. Le deuxième chapitre s’intéresse à l’introduction d’un état très protecteur : la protection à vie du bonus. Cette protection est octroyée automatiquement et gratuitement aux assurés sous des conditions restrictives d’historique de sinistre et d’ancienneté. Comparé à la situation dans laquelle cet état protecteur n’existe pas, le taux de sinistre des assurés protégés augmente, tandis que le taux de sinistre des agents non protégés diminue, dans l’espoir d’être récompensés par la protection. L’existence de la protection est à l’origine d’un transfert intertemporel. Les assurés renoncent à de l’utilité présente en exerçant un effort supérieur, afin d’être récompensés par la protection et de profiter d’une utilité future plus élevée due à un effort moindre. Le troisième chapitre étudie la réaction juste après que l’assuré est récompensé par la protection à vie du bonus. Le taux de sinistre augmente immédiatement, mais seulement quand la protection existe depuis quelque temps. Cela suggère que l'effet d'un changement incitatif dépend de sa nature, mais aussi de son contexte. / Moral hazard is a source of economic distortion. The classical prediction in a simple framework is that a better coverage leads to a lower effort. This thesis studies the extent to which this prediction is empirically verified in more complex settings. The first chapter focuses on health-related absences. The policy under study is the one-day waiting period for sick leave in the French central civil service. This less generous reimbursement policy notably aims at reducing absenteeism. It leads to a decrease in the prevalence of short-term absences. But it also leads to an increase in the prevalence of long-term absences. As a result, the prevalence of all health-related absences stay unchanged. The two following chapters focus on bonus-malus systems used by an Irish car insurer. The second chapter focuses of the introduction on a highly protecting state: the lifetime bonus protection. This protection is granted automatically and freely to insurees under restrictive conditions on past claims and seniority. Compared to the situation in which this protecting state does not exist, the claims rate of protected insurees increases, but the claims rate of unprotected insurees decreases, in the hope of being rewarded with the protection. The existence of the protection induces an intertemporal transfer. Insurees waive present utility by exerting more effort, so as to be rewarded with the protection and to enjoy more future utility due to lower future effort. The third chapter studies the reaction just after the insuree is rewarded with the lifetime bonus protection. The claims rate increases immediately, but only when the protection exists for some time. This suggests that the effect of an incentive change depends on its nature, but also on its context.

Submitted by Renato Alexandre Scott Filho (renatoascottf@gmail.com) on 2015-02-24T23:39:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_02_22_RASF_Efeito da eleição do candidato da oposição sobre a apresentação e aprovação de projetos do prefeito na câmara.pdf: 2561359 bytes, checksum: 95f0e7dadd28a3c61c44fbfb388fccae (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-02-25T00:25:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_02_22_RASF_Efeito da eleição do candidato da oposição sobre a apresentação e aprovação de projetos do prefeito na câmara.pdf: 2561359 bytes, checksum: 95f0e7dadd28a3c61c44fbfb388fccae (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-02-25T14:51:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_02_22_RASF_Efeito da eleição do candidato da oposição sobre a apresentação e aprovação de projetos do prefeito na câmara.pdf: 2561359 bytes, checksum: 95f0e7dadd28a3c61c44fbfb388fccae (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-05 / This study aims to analyze the effect of a challenger winning the municipal elections on the presentation and approval by the city council of projects proposed by the then elected mayor, on the subsequent year. This subject relates to the advantage citizens take when they choose the alternation of power option instead of the reelection one, as well as to the relation between the new chief of the executive and the city councilmen. A bound is then established with an electoral literature that excels at the analysis of factors leading to the reelection of a politician, but that may well be deepened on the examination of the future consequences of the alternation of power. In a similar way, a contribution is made by the provision of an econometrical toolset to the theoretical analyses of executive-legislative relations in the local level. The employed methodology is based on the application of the regression discontinuity design technique (or RDD) to data collected from the Brazilian Supreme Electoral Court and from a 2005’s legislative census. Following the data examination, and with moderate significance, it is argued that when the challenger is elected mayor he tends to propose less projects in the first year of his term (as opposed to the incumbent mayor), but these projects, on the other hand, get a proportionally more favorable reception by the city council. / Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o efeito de se eleger um candidato da oposição em eleições municipais sobre a apresentação e aprovação de projetos do prefeito então eleito na câmara de vereadores, no ano subsequente. Tal questão diz respeito à vantagem, para os munícipes, de optar pela alternância de poder em detrimento da reeleição, bem como à relação entre o novo representante do executivo e os vereadores. Dialoga-se, assim, com uma literatura político-eleitoral pródiga na análise dos fatores que favorecem a reeleição, mas que pouco se debruçou sobre as consequências futuras da alternância de poder. Igualmente, contribui-se com um embasamento econométrico para as discussões fomentadas a nível teórico a respeito das relações entre os poderes no município. A metodologia empregada se baseia na técnica de regressões descontínuas ou RDD para tratamento quase-experimental dos dados coletados no TSE e no Censo Legislativo de 2005. A partir da análise dos dados, e com significância moderada, argumenta-se que quando o prefeito eleito é da oposição ele tende a apresentar menos projetos à câmara em seu primeiro ano de mandato, mas recebe acolhida proporcionalmente mais favorável por parte dos vereadores.

Submitted by Alessandro Ribeiro de Carvalho Casalecchi (alercc@gmail.com) on 2017-07-03T21:17:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Alessandro_Casalecchi.pdf: 2174297 bytes, checksum: 27298549cf220c58b7eb52f7323446d7 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2017-07-04T11:10:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Alessandro_Casalecchi.pdf: 2174297 bytes, checksum: 27298549cf220c58b7eb52f7323446d7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-05T13:46:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Alessandro_Casalecchi.pdf: 2174297 bytes, checksum: 27298549cf220c58b7eb52f7323446d7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-25 / Os dois artigos desta tese, os capítulos 2 e 3, referem-se a testes de hipótese mas têm focos diferentes. O capítulo 2, intitulado "Improvements for external validity tests in fuzzy regression discontinuity designs," apresenta condições --- hipóteses de continuidade, monotonicidade estrita e convergência pontual --- sob as quais testes de qualidade de ajuste para duas amostras podem ser usados para testes de validade externa em modelos de tratamento-controle que sofrem de "compliance" imperfeito. Modelos com "compliance" imperfeito permitem a estimação de efeitos de tratamento apenas para a subpopulação de "compliers", sendo que tais estimativas não são necessariamente válidas para outras subpopulações ("always-takers" e "never-takers"). Sob as condições do capítulo 2, o uso do teste de qualidade de ajuste no lugar do teste de diferença de médias representa um avanço para testes de validade externa, uma vez que mais hipóteses alternativas são detectáveis pelo primeiro teste. Sugerimos combinar duas estatísticas de teste de qualidade de ajuste (uma para tratados e outra para não tratados) na forma de um teste múltiplo ao invés de um teste conjunto. O capítulo 3, intitulado "Higher-order UMP tests", sugere uma estratégia para se escolher, dentro de um conjunto de estatísticas de teste disponíveis, aquela que fornece o teste mais poderoso quando as funções de poder dos testes em questão não podem ser diferenciadas através de métodos assintóticos usuais, como análise de poder local ("local power analysis"). Propomos o uso de aproximações assintóticas de ordem mais alta, como expansões de Edgeworth, para se aproximar as densidades amostrais das estatísticas disponíveis e, com isso, verificar-se quais delas possuem a propriedade da razão monotônica de verossimilhança. Tal propriedade implica, pelo Teorema de Karlin-Rubin, que o teste é uniformemente mais poderoso (UMP) --- ao menos até certa ordem de aproximação --- se a estatística for suficiente para o parâmetro relevante. Para o caso em que as estatísticas sendo comparadas não são suficientes, argumentamos que frequentemente elas podem se tornar suficientes para uma família paramétrica de interesse após reparametrizações apropriadas. Para fins de ilustração, nós aplicamos o método proposto para determinar o valor ótimo, em termos de poder, do parâmetro de suavização do estimador de densidade por kernel em bases de dados simuladas e concluímos que a ordem de aproximação usada nesta aplicação (segunda ordem) não é alta o suficiente para permitir a diferenciação das funções de poder associadas aos diferentes valores do parâmetro de suavização. / The two papers in this work, chapters 2 and 3, regard hypothesis testing but address different issues. Chapter 2, entitled "Improvements for external validity tests in fuzzy regression discontinuity designs", shows conditions --- assumptions of continuity, strict monotonicity and pointwise convergence --- under which two-sample goodness-of-fit (GOF) tests can be used to test for external validity in treatment-control models that suffer from imperfect compliance of units with respect to the assigned treatment. Imperfect compliance allows researchers to estimate only treatment effects for the subpopulation of compliers, and the validity of these estimates for other subpopulations (always-takers and never-takers) remains an open problem. Under the conditions in Chapter 2, the use of GOF tests in place of mean difference tests represents an improvement over other external validity tests in the literature, since more alternative hypotheses are detectable by the test statistic. We suggested to combine two GOF test statistics (one for the treated and one for the untreated) in a multiple test instead of a joint test. Chapter 3, entitled "Higher-order UMP tests", suggests a strategy to choose among candidate test statistics, according to a power criterion, when their power performances are not distinguishable by usual methods of asymptotic comparison like local power analysis. We propose the use of higher-order asymptotic expansions, like Edgeworth expansions, to approximate the sample densities of the candidate test statistics and verify which of them has the monotone likelihood ratio property. This property implies, by the Karlin-Rubin Theorem, that the test is uniformly most powerful (UMP) --- at least to an order of approximation --- if the statistic is sufficient for the relevant parameter. When the statistics under study are not sufficient, we argue that they can often be made sufficient for a desired parametric family after appropriate reparameterization. We applied the method to search for the power-optimal bandwidth for the kernel density estimator in simulated data sets, and concluded that the order of approximation that we used (second order) is still too low to allow us to distinguish among bandwidths.

Essay I: Employment Security Agreements, which are elements of Swedish collective agreements, offer a unique opportunity to study very early job search counselling of displaced workers. These agreements provide individual job search assistance to workers who are dismissed due to redundancy, often as early as during the period of notice. Compared to traditional labor market policies, the assistance provided is earlier and more responsive to the needs of the individual worker. In this study, I investigate the effects of the individual counseling and job search assistance provided through the Employment Security Agreement for Swedish blue-collar workers on job finding and subsequent job quality. The empirical strategy is based on the rules of eligibility in a regression discontinuity framework. I estimate the effect for workers with short tenure, who are dismissed through mass-layoffs. My results do not suggest that the program has an effect on the probability of becoming unemployed, the duration of unemployment, or income. However, the results indicate that the program has a positive effect on the duration of the next job. Essay II: The well-known positive relationship between the unemployment benefit level and unemployment duration can be separated into two potential sources; a moral hazard effect, and a liquidity effect pertaining to the increased ability to smooth consumption. The latter is a socially optimal response due to credit and insurance market failures. These two effects are difficult to separate empirically, but the social optimality of an unemployment insurance policy can be evaluated by studying the effect of a non-distortionary lump-sum severance grant on unemployment durations. In this study, I evaluate the effects on unemployment duration and subsequent job quality of a lump-sum severance grant provided to displaced workers, by means of a Swedish collective agreement. I use a regression discontinuity design, based on the strict age requirement to be eligible for the grant. I find that the lump-sum grant has a positive effect on the probability of becoming unemployed and the length of the completed unemployment duration, but no effect on subsequent job quality. My analysis also indicates that spousal income is important for the consumption smoothing abilities of displaced workers, and that the grant may have a greater effect in times of more favorable labor market conditions. Essay III: Evidence from around the world suggest that individuals who are awarded disability benefits in some cases still have residual working capacity, while disability insurance systems typically involve strong disincentives for benefit recipients to work. Some countries have introduced policies to incentivize disability insurance recipients to use their residual working capacities on the labor market. One such policy is the continuous deduction program in Sweden, introduced in 2009. In this study, I investigate whether the financial incentives provided by this program induce disability insurance recipients to increase their labor supply or education level. Retroactively determined eligibility to the program with respect to time of benefit award provides a setting resembling a natural experiment, which could be used to estimate the effects of the program using a regression discontinuity design. However, a simultaneous regime change of disability insurance eligibility causes covariate differences between treated and controls, which I adjust for using a matching strategy. My results suggest that the financial incentives provided by the program have not had any effect on labor supply or educational attainment.

[pt] Essa tese é composta por dois capítulos. O primeiro deles refere-se ao problema de aprendizado sequencial, útil em diversos campos de pesquisa e aplicações práticas. Exemplos incluem problemas de apreçamento dinâmico, desenhos de leilões e de incentivos, além de programas e tratamentos sequenciais. Neste capítulo, propomos a extensão de uma das mais populares regras de aprendizado, epsilon-greedy, para contextos de alta-dimensão, levando em consideração uma diretriz conservadora. Em particular, nossa proposta consiste em alocar parte do tempo que a regra original utiliza na adoção de ações completamente novas em uma busca focada em um conjunto restrito de ações promissoras. A regra resultante pode ser útil para aplicações práticas nas quais existem restrições suaves à adoção de ações não-usuais, mas que eventualmente, valorize surpresas positivas, ainda que a uma taxa decrescente. Como parte dos resultados, encontramos limites plausíveis, com alta probabilidade, para o remorso cumulativo para a regra epsilon-greedy conservadora em alta-dimensão. Também, mostramos a existência de um limite inferior para a cardinalidade do conjunto de ações viáveis que implica em um limite superior menor para o remorso da regra conservadora, comparativamente a sua versão não-conservadora. Adicionalmente, usuários finais possuem suficiente flexibilidade em estabelecer o nível de segurança que desejam, uma vez que tal nível não impacta as propriedades teóricas da regra de aprendizado proposta. Ilustramos nossa proposta tanto por meio de simulação, quanto por meio de um exercício utilizando base de dados de um problema real de sistemas de classificação. Por sua vez, no segundo capítulo, investigamos efeitos de tratamento determinísticos quando a regra de aloção é complexa e desconhecida, talvez por razões éticas, ou para evitar manipulação ou competição desnecessária. Mais especificamente, com foco na metodologia de regressão discontínua sharp, superamos a falta de conhecimento de pontos de corte na alocação de unidades, pela implementação de uma floresta de árvores de classificação, que também utiliza aprendizado sequencial na sua construção, para garantir que, assintoticamente, as regras de alocação desconhecidas sejam identificadas corretamente. A estrutura de árvore também é útil nos casos em que a regra de alocação desconhecida é mais complexa que as tradicionais univariadas. Motivado por exemplos da vida prática, nós mostramos nesse capítulo que, com alta probabilidade e baseado em premissas razoáveis, é possível estimar consistentemente os efeitos de tratamento sob esse cenário. Propomos ainda um algoritmo útil para usuários finais que se mostrou robusto para diferentes especificações e que revela com relativa confiança a regra de alocação anteriormente desconhecida. Ainda, exemplificamos os benefícios da metodologia proposta pela sua aplicação em parte do P900, um programa governamental Chileno de suporte para escolas, que se mostrou adequado ao cenário aqui estudado. / [en] Sequential learning problems are common in several fields of research and practical applications. Examples include dynamic pricing and assortment, design of auctions and incentives and permeate a large number of sequential treatment experiments. In this essay, we extend one of the most popular learning solutions, the epsilon-greedy heuristics, to high-dimensional contexts considering a conservative directive. We do this by allocating part of the time the original rule uses to adopt completely new actions to a more focused search in a restrictive set of promising actions. The resulting rule might be useful for practical applications that still values surprises, although at a decreasing rate, while also has restrictions on the adoption of unusual actions. With high probability, we find reasonable bounds for the cumulative regret of a conservative high-dimensional decaying epsilon-greedy rule. Also, we provide a lower bound for the cardinality of the set of viable actions that implies in an improved regret bound for the conservative version when compared to its non-conservative counterpart. Additionally, we show that end-users have sufficient flexibility when establishing how much safety they want, since it can be tuned without impacting theoretical properties. We illustrate our proposal both in a simulation exercise and using a real dataset. The second essay studies deterministic treatment effects when the assignment rule is both more complex than traditional ones and unknown to the public perhaps, among many possible causes, due to ethical reasons, to avoid data manipulation or unnecessary competition. More specifically, sticking to the well-known sharp RDD methodology, we circumvent the lack of knowledge of true cutoffs by employing a forest of classification trees which also uses sequential learning, as in the last essay, to guarantee that, asymptotically, the true unknown assignment rule is correctly identified. The tree structure also turns out to be suitable if the program s rule is more sophisticated than traditional univariate ones. Motivated by real world examples, we show in this essay that, with high probability and based on reasonable assumptions, it is possible to consistently estimate treatment effects under this setup. For practical implementation we propose an algorithm that not only sheds light on the previously unknown assignment rule but also is capable to robustly estimate treatment effects regarding different specifications imputed by end-users. Moreover, we exemplify the benefits of our methodology by employing it on part of the Chilean P900 school assistance program, which proves to be suitable for our framework.

Les politiques actives du marché du travail (PAMT) sont considérées de plus en plus comme nécessaires pour renforcer le lien entre protection sociale et création de sources de revenu plus durables dans l’objectif d’améliorer la qualité de l’emploi mais aussi, de façon plus générale, les conditions de vie. En conséquence, ces mesures jouent un rôle essentiel aujourd’hui dans les programmes de politique publique de la plupart des économies avancées et voient leur importance augmenter fortement dans les pays émergents et dans les pays en développement, où elles ne sont pas encore aussi bien établies. Il reste toutefois encore beaucoup à apprendre sur l’impact de ces mesures, en particulier sur le rôle des caractéristiques de leur mise en œuvre. Cette thèse entend contribuer à ce débat en étudiant l’efficacité des PAMT et le rôle des systèmes de mise en œuvre pour ce qui est de leur impact à la fois dans les pays développés et dans les pays émergents et en développement.Le premier chapitre examine sous un angle macroéconomique l’efficacité des PAMT à améliorer les résultats sur le marché du travail au sein des pays de l’OCDE, en particulier pour les travailleurs peu qualifiés. Il est capital de saisir de façon empirique l’effet net global des PAMT sur l’ensemble du marché du travail, car ces politiques entraînent souvent des phénomènes de substitution, de déplacement et d’autres conséquences indirectes. Les deux chapitres suivants cherchent à déterminer si les PAMT doivent être encore étendues dans les pays émergents et en développement. Pour ce faire, les effets au niveau individuel de deux types de PAMT en Amérique latine sont étudiés, en s’appuyant sur la présence de règles d’attribution intéressantes et de données de qualité au niveau individuel. Ainsi, le deuxième chapitre s’intéresse plus particulièrement aux conséquences à moyen et long terme d’un programme de workfare péruvien, l’une des mesures d’activation les moins étudiées, bien que fréquemment mise en œuvre dans la région, afin d’évaluer la durabilité de ses effets. Le troisième chapitre s’intéresse à l’introduction d’un ensemble complet de PAMT en Argentine, dans le but d’aider les bénéficiaires éligibles d’un programme de transfert de fonds sous conditions à trouver des sources de revenus plus stables. Dans les deux cas, l’accent est mis sur les effets sur la qualité de l’emploi et sur la manière dont la mise en œuvre des mesures conditionne leur impact.Ces travaux montrent que les PAMT sont utiles mais à condition qu’elles s’accompagnent d’une conception et d’une mise en œuvre appropriées. Les résultats confirment l’importance de ces facteurs pour ce qui est de l’efficacité des mesures tant dans les pays de l’OCDE que dans ceux d’Amérique latine étudiés. L’ampleur des effets dépend du type de mesure étudiée et de la catégorie de bénéficiaires visée. / Today, active labor market policies (ALMPs) are increasingly seen as a necessary tool to strengthen the link between social protection and the creation of more sustainable sources of income with a view to increasing work quality but also improving living conditions more broadly. As a result, the role of ALMPs in policy agendas remains high in most advanced economies and has increased dramatically in emerging and developing countries, where ALMPs are still less established. Despite this, there is still a lot to be learned regarding the impact of these policies, particularly with regards to the role of implementation characteristics. My dissertation aims to contribute to this debate by looking at the effectiveness of ALMPs and the role of delivery systems in shaping their impact in both, developed and emerging and developing countries.It starts by examining the effectiveness of ALMPs in OECD countries in improving labor market outcomes, especially for low-skilled individuals, from a macroeconomic perspective (Chapter 1). Capturing empirically the overall net effect of ALMPs on the wide labor market is of upmost importance, since the role of ALMPs frequently involves substitution, displacement and other indirect effects. Then, the following two chapters aim to assess whether ALMPs should be leveraged further in emerging and developing countries, by investigating the individual-level effects of two different types of ALMPs in Latin America, exploiting the availability of interesting assignment rules and good-quality individual-level data. Chapter 2 focuses on the medium- to long-term effects of a Peruvian workfare program, one of the least studied ALMPs in the region albeit commonly implemented, to assess the sustainability of these type of programs’ effects. Chapter 3 then looks at the provision of a comprehensive package of ALMPs in Argentina, implemented to support eligible beneficiaries of a conditional cash transfer program in finding more stable income opportunities. In both cases, the focus is placed on the effects on work quality and on the role of design and implementation in shaping the effects.My research suggests that ALMPs are relevant but mostly through appropriate design and implementation aspects. The results confirm the importance of these factors in ensuring effectiveness both in OECD and the Latin American countries assessed. The size of effects depends on the type of policy assessed and on the beneficiary group.

Submitted by Felipe Garcia (felipe.garcia.rs@gmail.com) on 2013-06-17T19:31:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese de Doutorado Felipe Garcia - Versão Final.pdf: 2832465 bytes, checksum: 1b420a2d381d534eb81e82c8a092fe26 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-06-17T19:45:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese de Doutorado Felipe Garcia - Versão Final.pdf: 2832465 bytes, checksum: 1b420a2d381d534eb81e82c8a092fe26 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-06-17T19:48:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese de Doutorado Felipe Garcia - Versão Final.pdf: 2832465 bytes, checksum: 1b420a2d381d534eb81e82c8a092fe26 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-06-07 / This thesis consists of three essays, one being on economic development and the two others on economic growth. The first essay is an investigation into how access to electricity by households affects time allocation of children and teenagers from rural Brazil in what regards the choice to attend school or to engage in the labor market. To establish a causal relationship between the availability of electricity and time allocation, we use the criteria of priority works from Luz Para Todos program as a source of exogenous variation in access to electricity of households located in rural Brazil. We apply Regression Discontinuity Design and Difference in Difference estimator with endogenous variables. The results from the latter methodology indicate that the presence of electricity increases the likelihood that children and adolescents are enrolled in school and are not delayed relative to the grade they should be attending at their age. Also, the probability of a child being literate and not being working increases with the presence of electricity. One of the possible channels that could explain these results is the increased participation of mothers in the labor market. However, one cannot discard the hypothesis that the observed results are justified by the increased access to electricity by the schools, making them better and more attractive to students and by the receipt of Bolsa Familia program which is conditional on school attendence by children and teenagers. The second study aims to contribute to the literature on institutions and economic growth through the investigation of how the 1959 socialist revolution in Cuba have affected the trajectory of per capita income in that country. To do so, we apply the synthetic control method to obtain the counterfactual path of income per capita in the absence of such revolution. The results show that the trajectory of the annual GDP per capita of Cuba between 1959 to 1980 was lower than it would have been if the socialist regime had not been implemented. This result is robust to different placebo tests deployed and also to the use of different series of GDP per capita. Alternative hypotheses that could explain the lower path of GDP per capita are discussed based on the existing literature and data. The discussion suggests that institutional change was indeed the cause of the observed negative effect on the Cuban economy during the period of analysis. Finally, the third article investigates the economic cost of a natural disaster in Brazil. The paper looks at the excessive rains that happened in the state of Santa Catarina in November and December 2008. This study contributes with some new evidence to the iv recent literature on natural disasters. To our knowledge, there are no studies in Brazil that empirically measure the impact that a natural disaster has entailed on an affected region. This study is structured in two parts. The first uses synthetic control to measure the impact of rainfall on the industrial production of Santa Catarina. For that, we propose a small accommodation method for treating the effects of possible flooding rains in other states. In the second part, we use the method of difference in difference to measure the impact of the rains on the GDP per capita of the cities. The results show that for a period of two years after the end of 2008, the impact of the rains caused a lower monthly industrial production of 2.0% in Santa Catarina. For municipalities, the estimated effect of the disaster on GDP per capita was around -7.0% in 2008 and -5.0% in 2009. There was not significant effect in 2010. / Esta tese é composta por três ensaios, um na linha de desenvolvimento econômico e dois na linha de crescimento. O primeiro deles trata de uma investigação sobre o papel do acesso à energia elétrica a nível domiciliar na alocação do tempo das crianças e adolescentes do Brasil rural entre frequentar a escola e participar do mercado de trabalho. Para o estabelecimento da relação causal entre energia elétrica e a alocação de tempo se utilizam os critérios de prioridade de obras do programa Luz Para Todos como fonte de variação exógena no acesso à energia elétrica dos domicílios localizados na zona rural do Brasil. Aplicam-se os métodos de Regressão Descontínua e Diferenças em Diferenças com Variáveis Instrumentais. Os resultados obtidos da segunda metodologia apontam que a presença de energia elétrica aumenta a probabilidade das crianças e adolescentes estarem matriculadas na escola, não estarem atrasadas em relação à série que deveriam estar dada sua idade, serem alfabetizadas e não estarem trabalhando. Entre os possíveis canais capazes de explicar estes resultados está a maior participação das mães no mercado de trabalho. Entretanto, não se pode descartar a hipótese de que os resultados observados sejam justificados pelo aumento do aceso à energia elétrica a nível escolar, o que pode tornar as escolas melhores e mais atrativas, ou consequência do aumento do recebimento do programa Bolsa Família que exige frequência escolar das crianças e adolescentes. Já o segundo ensaio objetiva colaborar à literatura de instituições e crescimento econômico através da investigação do impacto da mudança institucional ocorrida em Cuba após a revolução socialista de 1959 sobre a trajetória da renda per capita do país. Para tanto, aplica-se o método de controle sintético para a obtenção do contrafactual da trajetória da renda per capita na ausência da revolução. Os resultados apontam que a trajetória do PIB per capita anual de Cuba entre 1959 a 1980 foi inferior ao que teria sido caso não tivesse sido implantado o regime socialista. Este resultado é robusto aos diferentes testes de placebo implantados e ao uso de distintas séries do PIB per capita de Cuba. Hipóteses alternativas à mudança institucional, mas também capazes de explicar a trajetória inferior do PIB per capita, são discutidas com base na literatura e na descrição de dados. A discussão sugere que foi de fato a mudança institucional a causa do efeito negativo observado sobre a economia cubana durante o período de análise. Por fim, o terceiro estudo investiga o custo econômico de um desastre natural ocorrido no Brasil em 2008, a saber, o excesso de chuvas em Santa Catarina entre os meses de novembro e dezembro daquele ano. Este artigo colabora com mais uma evidência para a recente literatura de desastres naturais. No Brasil não há nenhum trabalho, sob nosso conhecimento, medindo empiricamente o impacto que um desastre natural tenha acarretado a uma região atingida. Este estudo está estruturado em duas partes. Na primeira se utiliza o controle sintético para medir o impacto das chuvas na produção industrial de Santa Catarina. Propõe-se uma pequena acomodação do método para tratar o possível transbordamento dos efeitos das chuvas nos demais estados. Já na segunda parte, utiliza-se o método de diferenças em diferenças para medir o impacto das chuvas no PIB per capita das cidades mais atingidas. Os resultados apontam que para um período de dois anos após o final de 2008, o desastre causou uma produção industrial mensal 2.0% menor do que seria caso as chuvas não tivessem ocorrido. Por municípios, o efeito estimado do desastre sobre o PIB per capita se situou ao redor de -7,0% em 2008 e -5,0% em 2009. Em 2010 não há evidências de efeito.

[pt] O objetivo deste trabalho é contribuir para o debate sobre políticas de accountability educacional através da avaliação do programa cearense Prêmio Escola Nota Dez. Para tal, partimos do referencial da teoria democrática e da administração pública sob o prisma dos fundamentos de teoria social de Coleman visando construir uma abordagem analítica capaz de considerar não apenas os objetivos e resultados da política, mas seu contexto e tipos de incentivos, em um modelo de ação que leve em conta os agentes, recursos que dispõem e ações que empreenderam ao nível micro e que se agregam para modificar a realidade ao nível macro. Sendo um de dois sistemas de incentivos do PAIC - Programa Alfabetização na Idade Certa, o prêmio busca incrementar o desempenho do sistema escolar promovendo competição entre escolas por uma premiação dada às 150 primeiras de acordo com um ranking. Para moderar possíveis danos desta competição à equidade do sistema, o programa provê também um apoio, como forma de compensação, ás 150 escolas pior posicionadas. Além disso, tenta integrar as escolas beneficiadas em relações de cooperação, na qual as premiadas devem ajudar as apoiadas a cumprir suas metas. Utilizando-se de dados da Prova Brasil e do SPAECE, realizamos um estudo de série temporal com objetivo de avaliar os impactos líquidos do prêmio em relação à outras ações no âmbito do PAIC. Embora preliminares, os resultados indicam impactos em língua portuguesa no SPAECE, mas que não se reproduzem em matemática ou na Prova Brasil. No que diz respeito à equidade, observou-se que a estabilização dos indicadores de equidade da rede coincidiu com a introdução do prêmio. Mensuramos também os impactos dos incentivos pagos às escolas por meio de análise de regressão descontinua e observamos que os ganhos das escolas premiadas se concentraram na avaliação de disputa do prêmio, enquanto que os das escolas apoiadas se concentraram na avaliação de cumprimento de metas. No que diz respeito à equidade, os ganhos das escolas premiadas no SPAECE foram alcançados com aumento do percentual de alunos em nível adequado, porém com aumento da desigualdade interna, enquanto que os ganhos das escolas apoiadas indicam melhoria da equidade e aumento do percentual de alunos no nível adequado. Enquanto os efeitos positivos para as escolas apoiadas continuam a ocorrer ao longo do ciclo do prêmio, os ganhos das escolas premiadas parecem ser conjunturais e restritos à avaliação em que ocorre a competição. Por fim, concluímos que a maior lição que nos mostra o Estado do Ceará é que não basta um programa de bonificação ou distribuição de recursos: uma visão integrada que busque coordenar as ações entre agentes em diversos níveis institucionais e entes federativos pode ser um dos fatores decisivos para o sucesso das políticas cearenses. / [en] The objective of this is to contribute to the discussion about educational accountability policies through the evaluation of the program Prêmio Escola Nota Dez in the Brazilian state of Ceará. Therefore, our references como from Democratic Theory and Public Management, in the perspective of Coleman s Social Theory. Our aim is building an analytical approach able to consider the policies objectives and results, as well as its context and types of bonus, focusing on an action model that considers the agents, the resources they have and the actions they implement in a micro perspective that turns into a macro social change. There are two rewarding systems in the program Alfabetização na Idade Certa (PAIC in portuguese), and Escola Nota Dez Award is oneof them. It aims on increasing the performance of the school system by promoting competition among schools for an award given to the first 150 ones according to ranking. In order to control possible damages coming from this competition that could affect system equity, the program also provides a support, as a way of compensation, to the 150 worst-off schools in the ranking. Therefore, it tries to integrate the benefited schools into cooperative relations, in which the awarded schools must help the supported ones to fulfill their goals. Using dta from Prova Brasil and from the Basic Education Permanent Evaluation System of Ceará State (SPAECE in portuguese), we have conducted a time series analysis focusing on the impacts of this award in relation to other actions of PAIC. Even preliminary, the results indicate impacts on portuguese outcomes in SPAECE, but they do not show up in mathematics or on Prova Brasil. It was also observed that the stabilization of equity indicators of the educational system coincided with the time when the award was established. We have also measured the impacts of the prize paid to schools through the analysis of regression discontinuity, and we have observed that the benefits for the awarded schools focused on the evaluation of the competition for the prize, while the supported schools focused on assessing the goals achievement. Concerning equity, the achiavements of the awarded schools in SPAECE were accomplished in inequality inside the schools, while the achievements of the supported schools indicate an improvement in equity and an increase in the percentage of students at the satisfactory level. The positive effects for the supported schools continue to occur throughout the period of the award, while the benefits for the awarded schools seem to be temporary and restricted to the time of the competition. Finally, we conclud that the greatest lesson that Ceará state shows us is that a program of bonuses or resources distribution is not enough - an integrated vision that focuses on coordinating action among agents at different institutional levels and federative entities may be one of decisive factors for the succes of Ceará s policies.