Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Commander, Logistics Group, Western Pacific (COMLOGWESTPAC) is concerned with the delivery of high priority material, ordnance, and passengers to U.S. Navy ships due to a very large operations area and limited Combat Logistics Force (CLF) assets. High-speed vessels (HSVs) may have the potential to improve the delivery of these materials when used to complement existing logistics shuttle ships. This thesis quantifies current levels of traditional naval logistics support and provides comparison to HSV-based alternatives in various scenarios. The CLF Scenario Analysis Tool (CLFSAT), a newly developed discrete event simulation model of naval logistics support, performs the analysis. Given a scenario depicting combatant movements and operations, CLFSAT provides insight into the comparative performance of different supporting naval logistics force structures. This analysis determines that HSVs can be effective logistics platforms in specific scenarios when distributing high priority material, ordnance, and stores. HSVs are very effective in small theaters with short transit distances, but for larger theaters, their effectiveness is inversely proportional to distance from the Forward Logistics Site. Regardless of theater size, HSVs show significant improvements in theater distribution of "low density, high priority" cargo, such as precision guided munitions (PGMs) or critical repair parts when customers are outside COD range. / Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

協同規劃、預測與補貨(Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment,CPFR)，在歐美經過一些企業的採用後已經有顯著的成效，目前國內已經有一些企業相繼採用或即將採用CPFR，期望能因此降低供應鏈作業成本及提升供應鏈作業績效，以提升企業競爭力。在CPFR流程與供應鏈協同作業環境下，一個供需雙方協同，且績效良好的的銷售預測具有關鍵的重要性，是管理決策與協同合作時的的重要依據；但是多數的企業並沒有一個結構化、系統化的預測流程及方法，而是各部門透過簡單時間序列方法、天真預測法或人為經驗法則估算需求，進行多點且不同方法之預測，這樣的銷售預測較無穩定的品質，亦較難提供管理者合理的數據解釋。本研究結合時間序列、多元回歸模型與基因演算法發展出一個CPFR流程下之三階段混合預測方法，以買賣方直接之銷售資料、銷售計畫等資訊進行以「週」為單位之個別商品銷售預測。同時本研究中，亦以國內某製造業公司與其顧客（一國際大型零售連鎖店通路商）之產品銷售資料進行方法的驗證；實驗顯示，本研究所提出之預測方法之預測結果較Jeong等人(2002)所提結合多元回歸模型與基因演算法之二階段預測系統之預測結果佳；亦較傳統使用普通最小平方法求解之一般統計回歸方法預測結果佳。 / It has been verified in pilot projects by many European and American Corporations that Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) can improve supply chain performance. Enterprises nowadays in Taiwan are implementing or going to implement CPFR, with hopes to reduce their supply chain operation cost, enhance logistic performance and increase their competition capability consequently. Under CPFR process and supply chain collaboration environment, a supply and demand both sides promised identical sales forecast with well forecasting performance for order decision making and cooperation is very important. Due to the dynamic complexities of both internal and external co-operate environment, many firms resort to qualitative, navie forecasting or other simple quantitative forecasting techniques and have many forecasts in their organization. However, these forecasting techniques lack the structure and extrapolation capability of quantitative forecasting models or without stable performance, while multi-forecasts providing different views of demand. Forecasting inaccuracies exist and typically lead to dramatic disturbances in sales order and production planning. This paper presents a hybrid forecasting model for sales forecasting requirements in CPFR. A three stage model is proposed that integrate the time series model, regression model and use genetic algorithm to determine its coefficients efficiently. Direct sales information and related planned events in both collaborated sides is used for individual product’s “week” sales forecasting. To verify this model, we experiment on two different products and produce forecasts with datum from one manufacturer in Taiwan and its international retailer. The results shows that the hybrid sales forecasting model has better forecasting performance than not only the causal-genetic forecasting model proposed by Jeong et al. (2002), but also ordinary regression model with no genetic training process.

協同規劃、預測與補貨﹙Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment; CPFR﹚是協同商務中的一個應用實務，主要強調供應鏈上買賣雙方協同合作流程的概念，以提升供應鏈上流程的處理效率。未來企業的競爭將是產品背後整體供應鏈的激烈競爭，能對於不斷變化的市場需求作出有效預測，進而快速反應的企業將脫穎而出。對於庫存與補貨的掌控能力更將是企業決勝的關鍵因素之一。 CPFR 中的補貨模型是根據銷售預測、訂單預測、存貨策略與供給面資訊來做實際訂單，以作為補貨之用。補貨模式的準確性可以使賣方針對不同的需求來有效分配未來訂單預測的需求量，並降低安全庫存；買方則可根據訂單預測來調整庫存策略與採購數量。 現今廣用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）並沒有像CPFR加入更多的協同項目與精神，因此比較VMI與CPFR的補貨流程的差異性與優劣性，進而提供企業導入CPFR的補貨流程是相當重要的。 本研究以補貨階段為主題，除了探討協同補貨模式所需具備的屬性與輸入變數外，更將建構一個整合供應鏈上、下游協同資訊與符合協同訂單預測特性之預測模型，以提升補貨準確度，進而堆砌出整個CPFR 協同補貨模式，並加以與現今企業廣為採用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）的補貨模式進行比較，證明CPFR優於VMI，進而可供欲導入CPFR 流程下協同補貨模式或一般補貨模式的相關人員之參考。 / CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment) is one of the applications of collaborative business. The stressed concept is the cooperation process of sellers and buyers on the supply chain in order to increase the handling efficiency. In the future, the industries would compete on the whole supply chains behind products—only the industry that is capable of making accurate predictions according to the constantly changing market and reacts immediately has the chance of winning. Being able to control the inventory and supply effectively would be one of the key factors leading to an industry’s success. The replenishment model of CPFR is to fill out the order according to the sales prediction, order prediction, inventory strategy, and supply information. The precision of the replenishment model could affect both suppliers and customers. The former can distribute products properly and meet the different demands from the upcoming orders so as to reduce inventory; the latter are able to revise the inventory strategy and amount of order according to the order prediction. A few research papers aimed at the replenishment model, though, most still focus on the management issues like the process framework of CPFR and the implementation benefit. Hence, establishing both an information system that coordinates customer demand with suppliers and a collaborative replenishment model that increases the accuracy of predictions is fairly important. The phase of replenishment, as the subject of this study, will approach on parameters the collaborative replenishment model needs to input and combine evolution strategies with tabu search to establish a replenishment model under the process of CPFR.

Le développement et l'application de modèles de réapprovisionnement d’articles périssables est l'une des principales préoccupations des experts en la matière, le nombre et la variété des produits périssables augmentant de façon spectaculaire. L'une des lacunes majeures dans la littérature pour la gestion des produits périssables est que les chercheurs n'ont pas accordé suffisamment d'attention à deux aspects importants dans leurs modèles: i) les conditions stochastiques ; en particulier le délai stochastique est presque négligé car rendant les défis mathématiques plus compliqués ; ii) l'élaboration de politiques innovantes de réapprovisionnement prenant en compte les critères environnementaux ; en particulier la minimisation des émissions de CO2 comme second objectif dans un contexte de modélisation multi-objectif qui est tout à fait nouvelle. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les politiques de réapprovisionnement pour les produits périssables sous conditions stochastiques sous forme de trois problématiques différentes. Dans la première, nous développons un modèle de réapprovisionnement à révision continue (r, Q) pour un détaillant qui offre un produit périssable en prenant en compte : un horizon de planification infini, un délai d’approvisionnement stochastique, un taux de demande constante et la livraison tardive (backorder). Pour modéliser le processus de détérioration, un coût de possession de stock non linéaire est défini. La prise en considération du délai stochastique et d'un coût de possession de stock non linéaire rend le modèle mathématique plus complexe. Nous avons donc adapté le modèle proposé pour une fonction de distribution uniforme afin de résoudre de façon optimale ce problème par une approche exacte. Pour le second problème, nous étudions la stratégie de mutualisation des risques de délai de livraison par la passation de commandes de réapprovisionnement fractionnées par lots entre plusieurs fournisseurs simultanément pour un détaillant vendant un produit périssable. Enfin, dans le dernier problème, nous prenons en considération les coûts de stockage et de transport, ainsi que les impacts sur l'environnement, dans une chaîne d'approvisionnement centralisée sous condition de demande incertaine et pénurie partielle (partial backordered). Pour faire face à l'incertitude de la demande, est adoptée une approche de programmation stochastique en deux étapes. Par la suite, en tenant compte de la capacité de transport de véhicules, nous développons un modèle mathématique de programmation mixte en nombres entiers. De cette façon, les meilleurs véhicules de transport et les politiques de réapprovisionnement sont déterminés par la recherche d'un équilibre entre les critères financiers et environnementaux. Un exemple numérique du monde réel est également présenté pour démontrer l'applicabilité et l'efficacité du modèle proposé. / The development and application of inventory models for deteriorating items is one of the main concerns of the experts in the domain, since the number and variety of deteriorating products are dramatically increasing. One of the major gaps in the deteriorating inventories literature is that researchers have not paid enough attention to two important features in their models: i) Considering stochastic conditions; especially stochastic lead time is almost overlooked since makes the mathematical challenges complicated, ii) designing innovative inventory policies by taking into account the environmental issues and particularly the CO2 emission as a new objective in a multi-objective framework that is quite new. In this thesis, we study replenishment policy for deteriorating products under stochastic conditions in form of three different problem areas. In the first one, we develop a continuous (r,Q) inventory model for a retailer that offers a deteriorating product by considering infinite planning horizon, stochastic lead time, constant demand rate and backordered shortages. For modeling the deterioration process, a non-linear holding cost is defined. Taking into consideration the stochastic lead time as well as a non-linear holding cost makes the mathematical model more complex. We therefore customize the proposed model for a uniform distribution function that could be tractable to solve optimally by an exact approach. In second problem, we study the strategy of pooling lead time risks by splitting replenishment orders among multiple suppliers simultaneously for a retailer that sells a deteriorating product. Finally, in the last problem, we consider inventory and transportation costs, as well as the environmental impacts in a centralized supply chain by taking into account uncertain demand and partial backordered shortages. In order to deal with demand uncertainty, a two stage stochastic programming approach is taken. Then, by considering transportation vehicles capacity, we develop a mixed integer mathematical model. In this way, the best transportation vehicles and replenishment policy are determined by finding a balance between financial and environmental criteria. A numerical example from the real world is also presented to show the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed model.

[pt] Apesar de existir na literatura modelos propostos para gestão de estoques, as premissas consideradas por tais modelos podem inviabilizar suas aplicações. Este trabalho propõe uma metodologia de programação estocástica para reposição e controle de estoques de produto único numa rede logística de duas camadas. O enfoque revisão periódica proposto pode considerar tanto atendimentos à demanda em atraso (backorders) como vendas perdidas (lost sales) sem restrição de pedidos pendentes. Além disso, a fim de alcançar um melhor nível de serviço para o cliente, é introduzida uma regra de rateio proporcional a quantidade faltante do item em estoque no centro de distribuição para atender simultaneamente a demanda de todos os varejistas, a qual é capaz de lidar com as alocações negativas da falta. A periodicidade e o nível alvo da posição dos estoques são determinados através de modelos de programação estocástica de dois estágios e de uma técnica baseada em simulação de Monte Carlo, conhecida como Sample Average Approximation, que levam em conta a natureza incerta dos níveis de demanda pelo item por meio da geração de conjuntos finitos de cenários. Os equivalentes determinísticos são apresentados como modelos de programação não-linear inteira mista e em seguida linearizados. Experimentos numéricos com a metodologia proposta para instâncias do problema geradas aleatoriamente demonstram seu potencial ao obter resultados com erros de aproximadamente 1 por cento. / [en] Although several methods for inventory management are proposed in the literature, the required assumptions can hinder their application in practice. This work proposes a methodology for stock replenishment in two-echelon logistic networks through stochastic programming, considering a single item, periodic review and uncertain demands. The proposed approach is flexible enough to consider backlogs and lost sales cases without limitations on the number of outstanding orders. Also, in order to achieve better customer service, we introduce a variable rationing rule for quantities of the item in short at the distribution center to meet simultaneously all the demands of the retailers, dealing with imbalances or negative allocations of quantities of the item in short. The optimal review periodicity and the target level for inventory position are determined through two-stage stochastic programming models and a Monte Carlo simulation based-technique, known as Sample Average Approximation, which takes into account the uncertain nature of the item demand levels through the generation of finite sets of scenarios. The deterministic equivalent models are presented as mixed-integer non-linear programming models, which are then linearized. Numerical experiments with the proposed approach for instances of the problem randomly generated shows its potential, as the errors of the obtained results are around 1 percent.

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第15315号 / 工博第3194号 / 新制||工||1481(附属図書館) / 27793 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 角 哲也, 准教授 竹門 康弘, 准教授 武藤 裕則 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

This thesis deals with the possibilities of determining perfusion parameters of vascular system, using contrast-enhanced ultrasound imaging, which is non-invasive method. Properties of ultrasonography and use of contrast agents are briefly summarized. The methods selected for perfusions analysis were Bolus-tracking¬¬, Burst-replenishment and both of them combined – Bolus&Burst. Parametric models based on these methods were created for modelling an approximation of set perfusion parameters with the use of blind deconvolution.

På en alltmer global handelsplats med allt tuffare kundkrav handskas många företag med utmaningar kopplade till flexibilitet. Kunderna vill ha korta ledtider, stora anpassningsmöjligheter och utmärkt service, naturligtvis till ett lågt pris. Ytterligare en dimension av komplexitet adderas när stora koncerner gör förvärv av mindre bolag, vilket gör att koncernen måste säkerställa att även dessa nya förvärv kan möta kundens krav i samma utsträckning.  En lösning på denna problematik återfinns i litteraturen i konceptet logistikplattform. Konceptet innebär att ett företag arbetar med en centralt framtagen resursbas som sedan servar alla delar av företaget på en mer decentraliserad nivå för att kunna möta kundens krav. Fem viktiga byggstenar i en logistikplattform är central styrning, logistiska koncept, fysisk struktur, logistiska processer och aktiviteter samt informationssystem (Abrahamsson, et al., 2003).  I denna studie beskrivs koncernen Kesko, som i Sverige framför allt är aktiv inom byggbranschen och den tekniska handeln, med varumärkena K-Bygg, K-Rauta, Onninen samt Mark & Infra. Där återfinns denna problematik, speciellt kopplat till förvärv och kapaciteten på centrallagret som servar hela koncernen. Baserat på detta har denna studie syftet att utreda hur Kesko kan använda sig av en logistikplattform för att serva de olika varumärkena samt vad användandet får för konsekvens för centrallagret i Pilängen.  Studien fokuserar framförallt på de logistiska koncepten och den fysiska strukturen inom Kesko. De logistiska koncepten har avgränsats till att handla om försörjningskoncepten lagerhållning, kontinuerlig försörjning, leverantörsstyrt lager, cross-docking samt direktleverans och den fysiska strukturen har avgränsats till att hantera lokaliseringsstrategi, lagerstrategi samt transportstrategi.  Baserat på Keskos kunders, leverantörers samt produkters karaktäristik utformas vilka krav detta ställer på en logistikplattformen. Baserat på denna karaktäristik och krav utreds en ideal bild av Keskos logistikplattform i form av försörjningskoncept och den fysiska strukturen. Sedan utreds hur Kesko i nuläget verkligen arbetar med försörjningskoncepten och den fysiska strukturen. Dessa två versioner, den ideala bilden och nuläget, jämförs sedan i en så kallad gap-analys där skillnader utreds för att upptäcka var förbättringspotential finns och vilka förändringar Kesko kan genomföra för att kunna sägas jobba mot konceptet logistikplattform.  Analysen visar att Kesko är på god väg till det som anses viktigt inom konceptet, men att framtiden ställer stora krav på centrallagret och dess kapacitet. De sex gap som identifierades mellan den ideala och nuvarande utformningen och som ansågs påverka kapaciteten på centrallagret var 1) Användandet av cross-docking, 2) E-handelslagrets lokalisering och transportupplägg, 3) Förädlingsstrukturen, 4) Varumärket K-Byggs sortiment på centrallagret, 5) Varumärket Onninens sortiment på centrallagret och 6) Användandet av extern part för säsongslagring. Utifrån dessa gap formulerades åtta stycken förändringsförslag för hur Kesko kan minimera dessa gap och i och med detta gå mot den mer ideala utformningen. Förslagen visade att centrallagret, för att kunna fungera som en resursbas för Kesko i framtiden, troligen behöver en utökning av antalet pallplatser och plockautomatsplatser, en utökning av antalet in- och utlastningsportar samt utlastningsyta. Genom dessa förändringar förväntas centrallagret bli bättre anpassat för att serva de nuvarande varumärkena inom koncernen men även vara bättre förberett för att serva framtida nyförvärv. / In a business environment which is becoming more and more globalized and with continually increasing customer requirements, companies are dealing with flexibility challenges. Customers want short lead times, a lot of customization and excellent service, everything while keeping prices low. Another dimension of complexity is added when large company groups make acquisitions of smaller companies, which means that the company group must ensure that these new acquisitions also can meet the customer's requirements to the same extent.  A solution to this problem can be found in the literature as the concept of a logistics platform. The concept describes a company working with a centralized resource base that serves all parts of the company at a decentralized level in order to meet the customer's requirements. Five building blocks of a logistics platform are central control, logistics concepts, physical structure, logistics processes and activities, and information systems (Abrahamsson, et al., 2003)  This study describes Kesko Sverige, which is a company primarily active in the construction and technical trade, with the brands K-Bygg, K-Rauta, Onninen and Mark & Infra. The problems described above are also found within Kesko, especially regarding acquisitions and the capacity of the central warehouse, which is a warehouse that serves all brands in Kesko Sverige. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate how Kesko can use a logistics platform to serve the various brands and what the use is for the central warehouse in Pilängen.  The study primarily focuses on the logistical concepts and the physical structures within Kesko. The logistics concepts have been restricted to deal with the distribution concepts warehousing, continuous replenishment, vendor managed inventory, cross-docking and direct deliveries, and the physical structure has been restricted to handle location strategy, inventory strategy and transport strategy.  Based on Kesko's customer, supplier and product characteristics, the requirements for the logistics platform are discovered. Based on these characteristics and requirements, an ideal picture of Kesko's logistics platform in the form of distribution concepts and the physical structure is investigated. It is then investigated how Kesko currently is applying the distribution concepts and the physical structure. These two versions, the ideal state and the current state, are then compared in a so-called gap analysis where differences are investigated to discover where there are areas for improvement for Kesko to be considered working towards the concept of a logistics platform.  The analysis shows that Kesko is well on its way to what is considered important in the concept, but that the future places great demand on the central warehouse and its capacity. The 6 gaps that were identified between the ideal and current state and which were considered to affect the capacity of the central warehouse were 1) The use of cross-docking, 2) The e-commerce location and transport arrangements, 3) The physical structure for value-adding services, 4) K-Bygg's assortment at the central warehouse, 5) Onninen's assortment at the central warehouse and 6) The use of external part for seasonal storage. Based on these gaps, eight proposals were formulated regarding how Kesko can minimize these gaps and hence move towards the ideal state. The proposals showed that the central warehouse, in order to work as a resource base for Kesko in the future, probably needs an increase in the number of pallets and places in the automated picking machine, as well as an increased number of loading and unloading ports and an expansion of the unloading area. By making these changes the central warehouse will be better at serving the current brands and the warehouse will also be better prepared to serve future acquisitions.

To minimize global carbon emissions, having efficient jet engines and internal combustion engines necessitates utilizing lightweight alloys such as Al, Ti, and Mg-based alloys. Because of their remarkable strength/weight ratio, these alloys have received a lot of attention. Nonetheless, they have very poor tribological behavior, particularly at elevated temperatures beyond 200 °C, when most liquid lubricants begin to fail in lubrication. Over the last two decades, there has been a lot of interest in protecting Al, and Ti-based alloys by developing multiphase solid lubricants with a hard sublayer that provide mechanical strength and maintain the part's integrity while providing lubricity. The development of novel coatings with superior lubricity, high toughness, and high-temperature tolerance remains a challenging and hot topic to research and provide new engineered solutions for. To address and provide solutions to protect light-weight, i.e., Al, and Ti alloys at high-temperature and bestow superior tribological properties to such alloys, three types of adaptive lubricious coatings have been studied in this thesis: Nb-Ag-O self-healing lubricious ternary oxide, PEO-chameleon a self-adaptive multi-phase coating, and Sb2O3-MSH-C lubricious adaptive coatings to address this challenge. The development of the Nb-Ag-O ternary resulted in a coefficient of friction as low as 0.2 at 600 °C and crack healing at 900 °C. PEO-chameleon coatings demonstrated a remarkably low COF, as low as 0.07 at 300 °C and 1.4 GPa applied pressure. Finally, the Sb2O3-MSH-C multi-phase lubricious solid lubricant revealed superlubricity, with a CoF of 0.008 at 300 °C, providing a potentially promising contender for high-temperature, high-load applications.

No description available.