Transportation networks are critical to the function of modern society but they are vulnerable to extreme events such as earthquakes. Damaged bridges can cost millions of dollars to repair and congestion and detours due to bridge closures leads to indirect costs that are even greater than the cost of repair of damaged bridges. A resilient network however should be able to limit the damage caused by earthquakes and recover in a timely fashion. Resilience of networks has been studying in length from a conceptual standpoint but as quantitative measure, the field has been lacking. This study sets forth to quantify resilience based on a set of performance measures and mapping them to the four properties of resilience: robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness and rapidity. The thesis ties in concepts from risk analysis that helps determine expected damage levels and connects those concepts to a resilience framework to better understand how a network responds and recovers after an earthquake. Also explored are methods to decrease repair time in order to limit the indirect costs due to network downtime as well as an overview of pre-event methods of improving resilience with a novel method of selecting bridges for retrofit while minimizing direct and indirect losses.

Outokumpu Stainless AB är en global tillverkare av rostfria stål. I Outokumpus stålverk i Avesta har varmbandverket problem med risker för personskador vid hantering av defekta plåtstycken efter steckelvalsning. Denna hantering av defekta plåtar görs i dagsläget manuellt av operatörer i varmbandverket. Lyft med travers av defekta plåtar har fått höga riskpoäng i Outokumpus riskutvärdering vilket innebär risk för olycksfall föreligger och momentet bör ses över.Outokumpu som uppdragsgivare vill därför undersöka möjligheten att ta fram ett konceptuellt förslag för att minska risken för personskador i hanteringen av defekt plåt som ska forslas bort från produktionslinan. Konceptet ska även kunna minska cykeltiden för hanteringen samt kunna anpassas till befintlig konstruktion.Det här arbetet tar fram en kravspecifikation tillsammans med uppdragsgivare samt ett urval av koncept som utvärderas utifrån kravspecifikation och andra kriterier för att jämföra koncepten. Efter utvärderingen har det koncept som fått bäst utvärderingspoäng jobbats vidare med för att dimensionera och analysera.Resultatet av den konceptuella framtagning genererade ett koncept som med ett balkverk lyfter den defekta plåten rakt ovanför utrullbanan med hjälp av fyra hydraulcylindrar. I upplyft läge ligger plåten på balkverket och skjuts av utrullbanan direkt på ett bolster med en linjal som styrs av två hydraulcylindrar. Konceptet uppfyller kraven från kravspecifikationen och minskar risken i Outokumpus riskutvärdering. / Outokumpus Stainless AB is a global manufacturer of stainless steel. In Outokumpus steelwork in Avesta, the heat rolling unit has problems with the risk of personal injury when handling defective pieces of sheet metal after steckel rolling. This handling of defective sheets is currently manually executed by operators, where high-lift risks with defective plates have been given high risk points in Outokumpu's risk assessment.Outokumpu as a client wants to investigate the possibility of developing a conceptual proposal to reduce the risk of personal injury in handling defective sheet to be disposed of from the production line. The concept should also reduce the cycle time of the handling and be adapted to existing construction.This report presents a requirement specification and a selection of concepts evaluated based on requirements specification and soft criterias. After the evaluation, the concept with the best evaluation points has been worked on to set dimensions and analyze the concept.The result of the conceptual development became a concept that, with a beamwork, lifts the defective plate directly above the rolling path using four hydraulic cylinders. In the raised position, the plate is on the beamwork and is pushed off the rolling roller directly onto a bolster with a ruler driven by two hydraulic cylinders. The concept meets the requirements of the requirement specification and reduces the risk in Outokumpu's risk assessment.Keywords: Risk

Dagens samhälle är starkt beroende av ett flertal kritiska infrastrukturer varav elproduktion, telekommunikationssystem och transportsystem är några. Dessa kritiska infrastrukturer är mycket hopflätade och internt beroende av varandra. De är alla mer eller mindre sårbara och riskerar att förlora delar eller hela deras funktionalitet. Samhället har som mål att skydda all sin kritiska infrastruktur på bästa sätt mot möjliga hot och försöker minimera risken för negativa händelser. Det som ständigt bör eftersträvas är bättre metoder för att kvantifiera och i förlängningen hantera dessa risker. I ett samhälle som är stark beroende av elektroniska system kan det finnas antagonister som har till avsikt att med hjälp av elektromagnetiska störning slå ut eller begränsa funktioner i infrastrukturen. Detta gör exempelvis autonoma fordon sårbara om inga säkerhetsåtgärder vidtas. Det innebär att risknivåer och acceptabla risker i samband med autonoma fordon behöver identifieras och fastställas. Syftet med detta examensarbete är att beskriva vad ett autonomt fordon är, identifiera vilka risker det finns samt hur stor påverkan dessa risker har på autonoma fordon vid en IEMI-attack. Examensarbetet omfattar en bakgrundsstudie som behandlar hur autonoma fordon fungerar, samt vilka tänkbara risker avsiktlig elektromagnetiska störningar kan visa för autonoma fordon. Resultatet från examensarbetet visar att de komponenter som misstänks vara utsatt för elektromagnetisk störning bör genomgå en riskanalys. Detta för att validera risken samt den elektromagnetiska störningens konsekvenser. / Today's society is heavily dependent on a number of critical infrastructures, of which electricity generation, telecommunications systems and transport systems are few. These critical infrastructures are highly interlinked and interdependent. They are all more or less vulnerable and risk losing parts or their entire functionality. The society's goal is to safeguard all critical infrastructure in the best possible way against possible threats and try to minimize the risk of fallout. What is constantly being sought is better methods of quantifying and managing these risks in the long run. The risks are linked to verified risk levels that deal with an acceptance limit. In a society that is highly dependent on electronic systems, there may also be antagonists who intend to disable or limit functions in the infrastructure by means of electromagnetic interference. This makes for example autonomous vehicles vulnerable if no safety measures are taken. This means that risk levels and acceptable risks associated with autonomous vehicles need to be identified and established. The purpose of this study is to describe what an autonomous vehicle is, identify what risks there are and how much impact these risks have on autonomous vehicles. The following thesis work includes a background study that deals with the functioning of autonomous vehicles, and what possible risks involve intentional electromagnetic interference for autonomous vehicles? The result of the study indicates that all components suspected of being exposed to electromagnetic interference should undergo a risk analysis. This to validate the risk and its consequence.

With the foreseeable increase in traffic frequency to and from orbit, the safe operation of current and future space vehicles at designated spaceports has become a serious concern. Due to their high explosive energy potential, operating those launch vehicles presents a real risk to: (1) the spaceport infrastructure and personnel, (2) the communities surrounding the spaceport and (3) the flying aircrafts whose routes could be relatively close to spaceport launch and reentry routes. Several computer models aimed at modeling the effects of the different hazards generated by the breakup of such vehicles (e.g., fragmentation of debris, release of toxic gases, propagation of blast waves, etc.) have been developed, and are used to assist in Go-No Go launch decisions. They can simulate a total failure scenario of the vehicle and, estimate a number of casualties to be expected as a result of such failure. However, as all of these models - which can be very elaborate and complex - consider only one specific explosion hazard in their simulations, the decision of whether or not a launch should occur is currently based on the evaluation of several estimates of an expected number of casualties. As such, current practices ignore the complex, nonlinear interactions between the different hazards as well as the interdependencies between the estimates. In this study, we developed a new framework which makes use of information fusion theory, hazards' dispersion modeling and, geographical statistical analysis and visualization capabilities of geographical information systems to assess the risk generated by the operation of space launch vehicles. A new risk metric, which effectively addresses the lack of a common risk metric with current methods, is also proposed. A case study, based on a proposed spaceport in the state of Oklahoma showed that the estimates we generate through our framework consistently outperform estimates provided by any individual hazard, or by the independent combination of those hazards. Furthermore, the study revealed that using anything else than fusion could provide seriously misleading results, with potentially catastrophic consequences.

Yes / Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) approaches systematically evaluate the likelihood, impacts, and risk of adverse events. QRA using fault tree analysis (FTA) is based on the assumptions that failure events have crisp probabilities and they are statistically independent. The crisp probabilities of the events are often absent, which leads to data uncertainty. However, the independence assumption leads to model uncertainty. Experts’ knowledge can be utilized to obtain unknown failure data; however, this process itself is subject to different issues such as imprecision, incompleteness, and lack of consensus. For this reason, to minimize the overall uncertainty in QRA, in addition to addressing the uncertainties in the knowledge, it is equally important to combine the opinions of multiple experts and update prior beliefs based on new evidence. In this article, a novel methodology is proposed for QRA by combining fuzzy set theory and evidence theory with Bayesian networks to describe the uncertainties, aggregate experts’ opinions, and update prior probabilities when new evidences become available. Additionally, sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most critical events in the FTA. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been demonstrated via application to a practical system. / The research of Sohag Kabir was partly funded by the DEIS project (Grant Agreement 732242).

No description available.

Effective estimation, planning, and control of the functions, operations, and resources of a project are among the most challenging tasks faced by the management of today's engineering and construction organisations. The increase in size and complexity of modern projects demand a sound organisational structure and a rational approach. The main objectives of the present study are two-fold. Firstly to report and critically review theoretical and practical developments of different aspects of the management of engineering and construction projects. Secondly to further develop conceptual, practical techniques and processes; also to provide Guidelines to make more effective use. of resources and systems. To achieve these objectives the present research was carried out in close collaboration with various indurtrial organisations. The current literature on project management is critically examined from the point of View of project cost estimation, planning and control. Various existing and recommended procedures, approaches and techniques are reviewed with particular emphasis on using probabilistic techniques. As the problems of scale are increasing, progressively more industries are adopting systems and project management approaches. Problems, deficiencies and gaps in the existing systems are identified. An analysis of a questionnaire survey on Systems-Caps is carried out and the results of the analysis are reported. . S-curves (or progress curves) are widely used in the plauaing and control of cost, time and resources. A mathematical model for the S-curve is adopted for this purpose. Expenditure data on a number of ii recent projects is analysed and fitted to two S-curve models suggested by Keller-Singh and the Department of Health and Social Security (D. H. S. S. ). A comparative study of the models is carried out. A set of standard parameters for the models is obtained and the predicting accuracy of these models for forecasting expenditure for future similar projects investigated. Quantification aspects of risk involved with the completion time of a project are studied. 'A number of stochastic distributions arc fitted for this purpose to the programed and actual durations for the different activities of a housing project. The maximum likelihood method is used for the estimation of parameters of the fitted distributions. Due to the increasing use of indices in the construction industry, building cost and tender price indices, their application, limitations and methods of formation are discussed. Box-Jenkins models are employed to study past behaviour and to forecast future trends for labour, materials and building cost indices. Finally, general conclusions derived from the present regearch are sunmarised and areas requiring further research are proposed.

The annual incidence of microbiological food borne disease in the United States ranges between 6.5 million to 33 million cases with as high as 9,000 deaths. There is a developing consensus that the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) concept is the most effective and rational means of assuring food safety from harvest to consumption. The first step in the application of the HACCP concept involves conducting a hazard analysis. It is essential that this procedure is performed correctly, because the subsequent plan and procedures developed to control the identified hazards are based on this critical first step. Recently the National Advisory Committee on Microbiological Criteria for Foods (NACMCF) and Codex Alimentarius have published information on HACCP principles and application, but have not provided a comprehensive method for conducting a hazard analysis. Guidance on hazard analysis issues such as the determination of significant hazards for inclusion in a HACCP plan, the probability of occurrence (risk), and hazard severity is lacking. Practical guidance for conducting a hazard analysis and applying Principle #1 was developed. A decision tree approach is proposed that provides a logical framework for deciding what hazards are to be included in the HACCP plan and thus controlled in the food process. Additionally, guidance on what considerations and information are required at each level of the decision tree is provided. These decision trees and accompanying information provide a practical and uniform basis for applying Principle #1 and determining which hazards should be addressed in a HACCP plan. The use of risk assessment as a part of risk analysis is also gaining increasing popularity as a means to prioritize food safety issues and policy. Some have proposed the incorporation of risk assessment within the HACCP concept. The relationship of risk analysis to hazard analysis and justification for keeping the two procedures separate is discussed. The methods used in risk assessment and HACCP are at times Similar, but should not be considered the same. Risk assessment and HACCP are two separate functions with two separate scopes, and the incorporation of risk assessment into hazard analysis at this time is counterproductive and should be discouraged. / Ph. D.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第24889号 / 工博第5169号 / 新制||工||1987(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 米田 稔, 教授 西村 文武, 教授 松井 康人 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is a significant health problem for cattle producers in terms of economic cost and animal welfare. In the United States (US), it is one of the leading causes of sickness and death in beef calves prior to weaning. Although much research has been conducted to develop vaccines for prevention and antibiotics for treatment, the morbidity and mortality of BRD in beef calves prior to weaning has not improved over the years. The identification of risk factors associated with BRD is an area of focus which might ultimately allow producers to minimize morbidity and mortality from BRD. Little research has been performed to understand factors contributing to the risk of BRD in beef calves prior to weaning. BRD affects the beef cattle industry through losses due to mortality, prevention cost, treatment cost, or morbidity effect on productivity. Currently, the economic losses due to BRD for beef calves prior to weaning is not available. Price paid for feeder cattle is a major factor influencing the income of producers. The effect of BRD is a complicated problem since the parameters associated with the cost of BRD in beef cow-calf production are variable and interrelated. To better understand the economic effect of BRD in beef calves prior to weaning, concepts of uncertainty, variability, stochasticity, nonlinearity, and feedback might be involved during the process of assessing risk. The objectives of this dissertation are the following: 1) to test if calf sex, birth weight, and age of dam are associated with BRD of beef calves prior to weaning in different age periods; 2) to identify factors affecting the national market price of beef feeder cattle in the US and how the prices change over time; 3) to investigate the prevention and treatment cost of BRD in beef calves prior to weaning; 4) to estimate the economic cost of BRD in US beef calves prior to weaning; and 5) to understand the effect of BRD occurrence or absence on the national net income of the US beef cow-calf industry.