The performance of water lifelines during seismic events is an area of ongoing research. In this study we evaluate eight (8) different seismic events and the impact that ground shaking and ground deformations had on water pipeline systems. The overall goal of this work is to provide municipalities and utility providers with tools for mitigating the consequences of seismic hazards on water lifeline systems by analyzing the accuracy of damage estimation models. Three (3) different repair rate models are evaluated using data collected from the seismic events and compared to observed repair rate data. Results are analyzed to examine the utility of the models for forecasting damage. Results are shown. The overall goal of this work is to provide municipalities and utility providers with tools for mitigating the consequences of seismic hazards on water lifeline systems by analyzing the accuracy of damage estimation models. Results indicate that fragility functions that utilize a linear PGV-based function are the most accurate in predicting repair rates to a system based on residual plots developed for different models. Differentiating between continuous and segmented water lifeline systems is best done by using coefficients to modify the backbone PGV-based equation. Results also indicate that utilizing an additional PGD-based function could increase the predictive capabilities of water lifeline system fragility functions.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Plant Pathology / William W. Bockus / James P. Stack / Wheat blast, caused by the Triticum pathotype of Magnaporthe oryzae (MoT), is a serious disease of wheat causing yield failures and significant economic losses during epidemic years in Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia. Although outbreaks occur only sporadically, wheat blast is considered a major disease affecting wheat production in South America and may be a threat to the wheat crop in the United States. Wheat is a major crop in the U.S. and wheat exports from the U.S. are important to food security of several countries around the World. Thus, it is important to understand the potential for MoT entry and establishment into the U.S. and to test U.S. wheat cultivars for susceptibility to MoT. The hypotheses of this research project were a) importing wheat grain from Brazil does not pose a risk for MoT establishment in the U.S., and b) resistance to MoT head infection does not exist in U.S. hard red winter wheat elite cultivars. Quantitative pathway analysis models were used to estimate the risk of MoT entry and establishment, in the coterminous U.S. and in a more targeted area within southeast North Carolina, via the importation of wheat grain from Brazil. The pathway model predicted that significant risk for MoT entry and establishment exists in some areas of the U.S. However, in approximately 60% of the coterminous U.S. winter wheat production areas the risk of MoT establishment was estimated to be zero. With respect to winter wheat growing areas in the U.S., conditions for MoT establishment and wheat blast outbreak occur only in small, restricted geographic areas. A higher resolution pathway analysis based on a ground transportation corridor in North Carolina indicated that conditions for MoT establishment exist seven out of ten years. Among U.S. cultivars tested, a continuum in severity to head blast was observed; cultivars Everest and Karl 92 were highly susceptible with more than 90% disease severity, while cultivars PostRock, Jackpot, Overley, Jagalene, Jagger, and Santa Fe showed less than 3% infection.

<p><p>In the operation, planning and design of the transmission system it is of greatest concern to quantify the reliability security margin to unwanted conditions. The deterministic N-1 criterion has traditionally provided this security margin to reduce the consequences of severe conditions such as widespread blackouts. However, a deterministic criterion does not include the likelihood of different outage events. Moreover, experience from blackouts shows, e.g. in Sweden-Denmark September 2003, that the outages were not captured by the N-1 criterion. The question addressed in this thesis is how this system security margin can be quantified with probabilistic methods. A quantitative measure provides one valuable input to the decision-making process of selecting e.g. system expansions alternatives and maintenance actions in the planning and design phases. It is also beneficial for the operators in the control room to assess the associated security margin of existing and future network conditions.</p><p>This thesis presents a method that assesses each component's risk to an insufficient transfer capability in the transmission system. This shows on each component's importance to the system security margin. It provides a systematic analysis and ranking of outage events' risk of overloading critical transfer sections (CTS) in the system. The severity of each critical event is quantified in a risk index based on the likelihood of the event and the consequence of the section's transmission capacity. This enables a comparison of the risk of a frequent outage event with small CTS consequences, with a rare event with large consequences.</p><p>The developed approach has been applied for the generally known Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS). The result shows that the ranking of the components is highly dependent on the substation modelling and the studied system load level.</p><p>With the restriction of only evaluating the risks to the transfer capability in a few CTSs, the method provides a quantitative ranking of the potential risks to the system security margin at different load levels. Consequently, the developed reliability based approach provides information which could improve the deterministic criterion for transmission system planning.</p></p>

Prescriptive fire safety codes regulate the use of combustible room linings to reduce fire risk. These regulations are based on classification systems which designate materials according to their relative hazard when exposed to a standard fire scenario. However, no quantitative data sets on the fire risk of wooden lining materials exist which take into account relevant uncertainties, such as movable fuel loads in compartments. This work is a comparative risk analysis on the influence of wooden linings on the time to flashover in a compartment, considering uncertainties in the fuel load configuration. A risk model is set up for this purpose using B-RISK, a probabilistic fire design and research tool currently under development at BRANZ (Building Research Association of New Zealand) and the University of Canterbury. The risk model calculates fire spread in a compartment between fuel load items and from fuel load items to combustible linings. Multiple iterations are performed considering varying fuel load arrangements and input values sampled from distributions (Monte-Carlo simulation). The functionality and applicability of the risk model is demonstrated, comparing the model with experiments from the literature. The model assumptions are described in detail. Some of the model inputs are defined as distributions in order to account for uncertainty. Parametric studies are conducted in order to analyse the sensitivity of the results to input parameters which cannot be described as distributions. Probabilistic times to flashover are presented and discussed for an ISO 9705 compartment considering varying movable fuel loads and different lining configurations. The fuel load is typical for a hotel room occupancy. Effects of suppression measures are not considered. It is shown that flashover occurs approximately 60 seconds earlier if walls and ceiling are lined with wooden materials than if all linings are non-combustible. This value refers to the 5th percentiles of the time to flashover, i.e. in 5% of the cases flashover has occurred and in 95% of the cases flashover has not (yet) occurred. Referring to 50th percentiles (median values), the difference is approximately 180 seconds. Furthermore it is shown that with wooden wall and ceiling linings in approximately 95% of the iterations flashover occurs, whereas with non-combustible linings 86% of the iterations lead to flashover. After 900 seconds, in 90% of the iterations flashover occurs if walls and ceiling are lined with wooden materials, and in 77% of the iterations if the linings are non-combustible. Using different wooden lining materials (non-fire retardant plywood, fire retardant plywood, and MDF) has no significant effect on the probabilistic times to flashover. Varying the fuel load energy density has an influence only when all linings are non-combustible and when the fuel load energy density is relatively low (100–200 MJ/m2). This work contains recommendations regarding the further development of B-RISK, the research into the fire risk connected with wooden room linings, and suggestions regarding the further development of prescriptive fire safety codes.

Ausgehend von der Feststellung, dass in Deutschland bislang kein quantitatives Verfahren zur Beurteilung der Sicherheit von Bahnübergängen existiert, wurde in der vorliegenden Arbeit ein Vorschlag für ein solches Verfahren entwickelt. Das zugrunde liegende Risikomodell ermöglicht es, aus den Parametern eines einzelnen Bahnübergangs die individuellen Risiken unterschiedlicher Gruppen von Straßenverkehrsteilnehmern sowie das kollektive Risiko des Bahnübergangs abzuschätzen. Zur Bewertung dieser Risiken wurden Vorschläge für Akzeptanzkriterien hergeleitet. Ein weiterer Teil der Untersuchung beschäftigte sich mit der Ermittlung und Bewertung risikoreduzierender Maßnahmen. Das Verfahren entstand auf Basis umfangreicher Literaturstudien, qualifizierter Schätzungen und ergänzender empirischer Untersuchungen. Der Neuigkeitswert des Modells – auch vor dem Hintergrund der aus dem Ausland bekannten Ansätze – besteht in der differenzierten Betrachtung nicht nur des einzelnen Bahnübergangs, sondern auch der einzelnen Verkehrsarten und insbesondere der einzelnen zum Bahnübergang hin- und vom Bahnübergang wegführenden Verkehrsströme. Dadurch wird der Erkenntnis Rechnung getragen, dass sich die spezifischen Eigenschaften der Straßenverkehrsteilnehmer sowie der von ihnen genutzten Zu- und Abflusswege auf die Sicherheit auswirken können. Aus den erzielten Erkenntnissen wurden Empfehlungen zur Weiterentwicklung der Regelwerke abgeleitet. Hierzu gehört die Forderung nach einer stärkeren Risikoorientierung der Gestaltungsregeln, die insbesondere die aufgezeigten Einflussfaktoren berücksichtigen müssen.

Nuclear energy is a source of carbon free power. With many countries striving to make deep carbon cuts in their energy sectors, nuclear energy could be a large part of the solution. One of the main obstacles standing in the way of the use of nuclear energy is the issue of used nuclear fuel disposal. According to the NEI, the U.S. creates about 2000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel per year and has generated around 76,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel over the last 4 decades. While there are technical problems that need to be solved, it is primarily the public and political opposition to the disposal of used nuclear fuel that stands in the way of progress in this area. This work addresses this issue through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). To make a decision among ten different fuel cycles, we have brought together five stakeholders: Nuclear Scientists and Engineers, Environmental Scientists, Economists, Political Scientists, and The General Public. Using Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT), we have been able to develop decision models for each stakeholder as well as a model that combines them all and came to the conclusion that of the ten fuel cycles considered, the best decision is to continue to use On Site Dry Cask Storage. This decision is made with small sample sizes but the methodology could be applied at much larger scales and can potentially be used to choose a fuel cycle that encounters much less political and social opposition to its implementation.

This thesis deals with the analysis of occupational risks profession salesman - specialist in a particular shopping center and the rehabilitation options for prevention of musculoskeletal difficulties in this profession. The work is divided into three parts. The first part contains an overview of theoretical knowledge about back pain related to work, risk factors for handling loads, mechanisms of injury and the effect of handling loads on individual parts of the musculoskeletal system. The first part also summarizes knowledge about the types of fatigue, work stress, weight limits for handling loads and categorization work. The second part is dedicated to the implementation and results of each step in the analysis of occupational risks. The third part focuses on summarizing the rehabilitation options for prevention of musculoskeletal difficulties of the profession effected by an employer and the employee.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver um método de análise de risco qualitativo que propicie um nível de segurança contra incêndio adequado ao risco esperado em uma edificação hospitalar de grande porte, visto que o estrito atendimento às exigências de códigos e regulamentações prescritivas podem não garantir um adequado nível de segurança contra incêndio. O método baseou-se na metodologia de análise de risco qualitativa e em técnicas de gestão de risco corporativo. O trabalho resultou no Método de Avaliação de Risco Incêndio Hospitalar (MARIH). O MARIH foi idealizado com o intuito de demonstrar que, a partir da identificação e da análise dos principais riscos de incêndio em edifícios hospitalares, é possível tomar medidas adequadas para minimizar tais riscos, ainda na fase de projeto, e implementar medidas de controle (tratamento), tornando a edificação mais segura em relação à ocorrência de incêndios, sem necessariamente onerar sua construção. O método MARIH foi concebido para atuar como uma ferramenta para o desenvolvimento do projeto, com vistas a elevar o nível de segurança contra incêndio nas edificações hospitalares. Além disso, pretende-se, com o uso dessa ferramenta, demonstrar aos projetistas e empreendedores a importância da inserção adequada e da integração da segurança contra incêndio no processo de projeto de edificações de grande porte e complexas. / In view of the fact that requirements of prescriptive codes are not always enough to guarantee fire safety to hospital buildings, this study proposes and develops a qualitative method of risk analysis aiming to provide an adequate level of fire safety for such a type of building. The method named Fire Risk Assessment Method for Hospital Buildings (Método de Avaliação de Risco Incêndio Hospitalar - MARIH) is based on qualitative risk analysis methodology and on corporate risk management techniques. The method was developed in order to prove that, by the identification and the analysis of the main fire risks in hospitals, countermeasures may be taken to reduce such risks, still during the design process, without increasing construction costs. The MARIH method is proposed as a design tool so as to improve the fire safety level in hospital buildings, emphasizing how important fire safety is along the design process as well.

Historicamente, os sistemas de tráfego aéreo incorporaram níveis de automação nas atividades de controle do espaço aéreo com o intuito de atender à crescente demanda por serviços aéreos e de melhorar os níveis de segurança nos procedimentos de voo. Com o crescimento expressivo previsto para os próximos anos, devido ao aumento nos números de voos e de usuários, as opções tradicionais de expansão da malha aérea e / ou construção de novos aeroportos se tornaram onerosas economicamente, tornando necessária a adoção de alternativas, tais como as técnicas / procedimentos para pousos em pistas paralelas, como forma de aproveitar parte da atual infraestrutura aeroportuária existente, sem a necessidade de enormes aportes financeiros. Para avaliar a viabilidade de projetos de pousos simultâneos em pistas paralelas, um dos fatores importantes a serem analisados é o da avaliação do risco de colisão entre aeronaves associado durante esses procedimentos. Nesse cenário, este trabalho de pesquisa propõe uma extensão no modelo de avaliação de segurança de Ogata para procedimentos de pouso em pistas paralelas, considerando que o modelo original tem o objetivo de medir o nível de risco associado somente para operações de pouso convencionais em pistas paralelas. A extensão deste modelo ocorre no sentido de também permitir a simulação em outros cenários distintos de pouso, o que torna possível tanto a realização de comparativos entre técnicas / procedimentos utilizadas em operações de pouso em pistas paralelas, quanto a avaliação do nível de risco associado. Este modelo estendido de segurança utiliza o método de Monte Carlo, da mesma forma que o original, em que um número elevado de simulações de cenários possíveis de pousos em pistas paralelas é avaliado. Com os resultados obtidos, é analisado o impacto da variação da distância entre as pistas na segurança de pousos em pistas paralelas. / Historically, air traffic control systems have incorporated some levels of automation to manage procedures of airspace control in order to meet the growing demand for air transportation services and to improve levels of safety in flight procedures. With significant growth expected in the coming years due to an increase in numbers of flights and passengers, the traditional options of expanding the air traffic network and / or construction of new airports have become economically burdensome, requiring the adoption of alternatives such as techniques / procedures for landings on parallel runways as a way of taking advantage of part of the current airport infrastructure, without requiring enormous financial contributions. To assess the feasibility of projects of landing in parallel runways, one of the important factors to be analyzed is the evaluation of the risk of collision between aircraft, associated to these procedures. In this scenario, this research proposes to extend the Ogata safety assessment model in procedures for landing on parallel runways, whereas the original model aims to measure the level of risk associated only with conventional landing operations in parallel runways. The extension of this model occurs in order to allow the simulation of different landing scenarios, which makes possible both the conduct of comparative techniques / procedures used in landing operations on parallel runways, such as the risk level assessment. This model uses the Monte Carlo simulation, the same as the original model, in which a large number of simulations of possible scenarios for landings on parallel runways are evaluated. With these results, it studies the impact of the change of distance between lanes on the safety of aircraft landing on parallel runways.

A comercialização de energia elétrica de fontes renováveis, ordinariamente, constitui-se uma atividade em que as operações são estruturadas sob condições de incerteza, por exemplo, em relação ao preço \"spot\" no mercado de curto prazo e a geração de energia dos empreendimentos. Deriva desse fato a busca dos agentes pela formulação de estratégias e utilização de ferramentais para auxiliá-los em suas tomadas de decisão, visando não somente o retorno financeiro, mas também à mitigação dos riscos envolvidos. Análises de investimentos em fontes renováveis compartilham de desafios similares. Na literatura, o estudo da tomada de decisão considerada ótima sob condições de incerteza se dá por meio da aplicação de técnicas de programação estocástica, que viabiliza a modelagem de problemas com variáveis randômicas e a obtenção de soluções racionais, de interesse para o investidor. Esses modelos permitem a incorporação de métricas de risco, como por exemplo, o Conditional Value-at-Risk, a fim de se obter soluções ótimas que ponderem a expectativa de resultado financeiro e o risco associado da operação, onde a aversão ao risco do agente torna-se um condicionante fundamental. O objetivo principal da Tese - sob a ótica dos agentes geradores, consumidores e comercializadores - é: (i) desenvolver e implementar modelos de otimização em programação linear estocástica com métrica CVaR associada, customizados para cada um desses agentes; e (ii) aplicá-los na análise estratégica de operações como forma de apresentar alternativas factíveis à gestão das atividades desses agentes e contribuir com a proposição de um instrumento conceitualmente robusto e amigável ao usuário, para utilização por parte das empresas. Nesse contexto, como antes frisado, dá-se ênfase na análise do risco financeiro dessas operações por meio da aplicação do CVaR e com base na aversão ao risco do agente. Considera-se as fontes renováveis hídrica e eólica como opções de ativos de geração, de forma a estudar o efeito de complementaridade entre fontes distintas e entre sites distintos da mesma fonte, avaliando-se os rebatimentos nas operações. / The renewable energy trading, ordinarily, is an activity in which mostly operations are structured under uncertainty conditions, for instance, in relation to the energy spot price and assets generation. Derives from this fact the search of the agents for strategies formulation based on computational tools to assist their decision-making process, not only seeking financial returns, but also to mitigate the risks involved. Investments analysis in renewable sources share the same challenges. In the literature, the study of optimal decision-making under uncertainty conditions is made through the application of stochastic programming techniques, which enable modeling problems with random variables and find rational solutions. These models allow the incorporation of risk metrics, as the \"Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR)\", to provide optimal solutions that weigh the expected financial results and the associated risk, in which the agent\'s risk-aversion becomes an essential condition for defining the operation strategy. From the perspective of generators, consumers and traders agents, the main purposes of this thesis are: (i) to develop customized optimization models with CVaR metric associated, optimized in stochastic linear programming; and (ii) to apply the models for strategic analysis of operations under the risk-return binomial, focusing on the management activities of each of these agents, and considering renewable sources as option. In this context, the emphasis is on analysis of the operations financial risks through the application of CVaR and based on the agent\'s risk-aversion level. Furthermore, the hydro and wind renewables sources are options of generation assets in order to study the seasonal generation complementarity effect among them and the consequences on energy trading strategies.