The thesis examines the strategy of country momentum and is evaluated with 30 different country exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the period 1996-2018. The empirical evaluation is designed to apply different formation- and holding periods with overlapping portfolios. The results show positive momentum returns in various periods and a few portfolios present a higher average return than the market. However, none of the portfolios is presenting any significant positive returns or alphas, meaning that the three hypotheses cannot be rejected. On the other hand, some portfolios have higher Sharpe ratios and Morningstar value than the market. Thus, meaning that the individual investor could prefer the momentum portfolio over the market despite the insignificant returns.

In connection to the process of financialization of commodity markets which is caused by the sharp increase of money flowing into the commodity markets, the question of which factors affect commodity and commodity indices prices is discussed. The aim of the dissertation is to determine and quantify the factors affecting the prices of industrial metals during the period of financialization of commodity markets and derive the pricing model of industrial metals, which would be able to generate signals of a possible overvaluation or undervaluation. The paper examined non-ferrous industrial metals traded on the Commodity Exchange LME (London Metal Exchange), namely aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. These metals are also included in the most of the world's composite commodity indices. The dissertation analyzes the contemporary developments in commodity markets; relationship between the price volatility and fundamental factors (including production, consumption and stocks of chosen metals and a wide range of macroeconomic determinants) or the relationship between risk and return of industrial metals. The closing part of the dissertation focuses on the creating of composite pricing indicator for copper and tin by using the Boosted Trees method. The results obtained in the research show that created indicator is able to explain the volatility of the 3m copper futures contracts by 94.25% and 3m futures contracts of tin by 96, 79% in the period from 1/2000 to 3/2015.

Avsikten med studien är att undersöka den magiska formelns prestation på den svenska aktiemarknaden mellan åren 2017–2021. Syftet är att undersöka om denmagiska formeln kan uppnå en högre riskjusterad avkastning än OMXS30 underundersökningsperioden. I denna studie tillämpas backtesting med hjälp av historiska data hämtat från Refinitv Eikons databas för att utforska strategins prestation under undersökningsperioden. Målet med denna studie var att undersöka om den magiska formeln kan användas av investerare med mindre erfarenhet för att uppnå en högre riskjusterad avkastning än OMXS30-index. Med hjälp av två variabler, return on capital och earnings yield fick vi fram ett resultat för att besvara studiens syfte. Under hela undersökningsperioden uppnådde den magiska formeln en genomsnittlig avkastning på 15,32% medan OMXS30 portföljen uppnådde en avkastning på 10,78%. Resultatet från denna studie visade att den magiska formeln kunde uppnå en högre avkastning än OMXS30 under undersökningsperioden men eftersom Sharpekvoten för OMXS30 var högre än den magiska formeln formas indikationer att OMXS30 presterade bättre än den magiska formeln på en genomsnittlig riskjusterad nivå under undersökningsperioden. / This study examines the performance of the magic formula by Joel Greenblatt on the Swedish stock market. A back test was performed to see if the magic formula could generate a higher risk adjusted return and outperform the OMXS30 index between the years 2017 and 2021. The study constructed portfolios for each year for the magic formula and OMXS30 with the ambition to compare the two results. The results show that the magic formula achieved a higher return at a higher risk rate so therefore, it was not able to beat the OMXS30 index on a risk adjusted level.

In Sweden, savings in funds today is one of the most popular forms of savings. Through both active and passive choices, almost all Swedes are exposed to the fund market, where mutual funds are the most popular type of funds. A clear majority of these funds are actively managed, which means that one or more fund managers actively work with the investments of the funds, with the aim to outperform the market. This method of management has been hotly debated in recent years, when many scientists claim that fund managers generally fail to outperform the market in long term. At the same time, interest in sustainability investments has increased in recent years, which is reflected in the fund market where sustainability funds have become increasingly popular. This essay therefore focuses on these sustainability funds, with focus on comparing large banks with web-based fund companies. The large banks in Sweden have been criticized for the way they are working seen from a customer perspective, but their funds are still very popular. Against this background, the study aims to investigate whether one can find any differences in performance of actively managed sustainability funds between large banks and web-based fund companies. Using four different models to measure risk-adjusted return of security portfolios, the funds have been examined to see if it is possible to find any patterns in terms of performance and the type of company that manages the funds. The survey results show that there is a clear difference in performance between the large banks and the web-based fund companies, whereby the latter succeed much better. Of the four models used, the large banks do not outperform the market under one model, while the web-based companies manage to outperform the market according to three of the models. Thus it can be stated that if you are interested in saving money in actively managed sustainability funds, it is the web-based companies to turn to. As previously mentioned, the large banks funds are very popular, which means that Swedish private investors have much money to gain by allowing web-based companies to manage their money, rather than large banks.

Syfte: Undersöka om det är möjligt att generera en överavkastning på aktier gentemot marknadsindex på OMXS Industrials enligt Net Current Asset Value strategin. Metod: Studien baseras på en kvantitativ metod för att undersöka historiska aktievärden. Datan som används i undersökningen hämtas från Thomson Reuters Datastream och de statistiska värdena bearbetas i Microsoft Office Excel Teoretiska utgångspunkter: Studien har sin förklaring med utgångspunkt från teorierna om den effektiva marknadshypotesen och CAPM modellen, samt ett avsnitt som utreder principerna om hur värderingsstrategier bör följas. Resultat: Beroende på längden av innehavsperioden visar studien att det i de samtliga fall är fullt möjligt att överträffa marknadsindex, och att den riskjusterade avkastningen i de flesta fall är högre än marknadsindex. / Objective: To examine whether it is possible to generate an excess return on stocks in relation to the market index of OMXS Industrials according to the strategy of Net Current Asset Value Method: The study is based on a quantitative method to investigate historical stock values. The data used in the study is retrieved from Thomson Reuters Datastream and the statistical values are processed in Microsoft Office Excel. Theoretical usage: The study is explained on the basis of the theory of the efficient market hypothesis and the CAPM model, and even a section that investigates principles of valuation strategies and how they should be followed. Results: Depending on the length of the holding period, the study shows that in all cases it is quite possible to outperform market indices, and risk-adjusted returns in most cases are higher than the market index.

I decennier har problematiken kring förvaltning belysts och i mångt och mycket har motpolerna aktiv- och passiv förvaltning jämförts. Tidigare forskning har påvisat att passiv förvaltning är att föredra framför aktiv förvaltning, bland annat på grund av de dyra förvaltningsavgifterna samt att förespråkarna antar en effektiv marknad. Ämnesområdet är ett väl utforskat område dock i högsta grad aktuellt. Tidigare forskning har inte belyst aktivitetsgraden i aktivt förvaltade fonder och därmed gavs implikation till fortsatt analysområde för den här studien. Syftet med uppsatsen är att analysera om aktivitetsgraden i aktivt förvaltade fonder kan förklara den riskjusterade avkastningen med hänsyn tagen till förvaltningsavgiften. En deduktiv ansats kommer tillämpas för utveckling av existerande teori. Utifrån uppsatsens syfte har en kvantitativ metod tillämpats för att analysera information som tilldelats av fondbolagens fondrapporter för att genomföra tester på olika tidsperioder. Uppsatsens resultat grundas på 81 aktivt förvaltade fonder vilka indikerar att det ej går att påvisa att en högre aktivitetsgrad leder till en högre riskjusterad avkastning. Likaså kan inte en högre förvaltningsavgift motiveras av aktivitetsgraden. Utfallet av analyserna beskrivs genom tabeller för att visualisera de statistiska analyserna. Förslag till fortsatt forskning inkluderar undersökning av vad fondbolagen definierar som krav för att klassificeras som aktivt förvaltade fonder. Utifrån att aktivitetsgraden är en ny infallsvinkel i utvärdering av aktiv förvaltning torde studiens resultat vara av intresse för gemene man då vi alla är investerare mer eller mindre i det privata livet. Investerare antas vara intresserade att veta vad som motiverar den höga förvaltningsavgiften samt hur investerade pengar blir förvaltade då konklusionen av studien är att aktivitetsgraden inte ger mervärde. / For decades, the problem of portfolio management has been discussed, specifically the comparisons between the opposite poles ‘active’ and ‘passive’ management. Previous research has shown that passive management is preferred over active management, predominantly because of the expensive management fees, as well as proponents assuming an efficient market. The subject area is a well- explored area yet, highly relevant. Previous research has not highlighted the trading frequency in actively managed funds and an implication for further analysis within this area was given. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether the frequency of trade in actively managed funds may explain the risk-adjusted return, taking into account the management fees. A deductive approach will be applied to the development of existing theory. Based on the thesis purpose, a quantitative method was applied. As well as analyzing the information assigned by the mutual fund companies’ fund reports for conducting tests at different time periods. Results of the thesis are based on 81 actively managed funds, indicating that it is not possible to reveal that, a higher frequency of trade will lead to a higher risk-adjusted return. Likewise, a higher management fee is not justified by the level of activity. The outcomes of the analysis are depicted through tables to provide a visualization of the statistical and analytical questions explored. Suggestions for future research include; consideration of what the fund companies define as requirements that will be classified as actively managed funds. Based on the above notions the frequency of trade is a new approach to the evaluation of active management. Investors are presumed to have a known interest in what stimulates high management fees and how the money invested will be managed. With respect to the conclusion of this study; the level of the frequency in trade does not add any value.

During the last few decades, the Swedish population has shown an increased interest in investment fund savings, and more than 60% of Swedish citizens are saving through funds today. In addition to this, awareness on climate change and related risks has increased, which has contributed to a greater focus on corporate sustainability among Swedish companies. As a result of these trends, there has been an increase in fund companies that are basing their investments on certain ethical restrictions, in order for private investors to save ethically. The purpose of this study was to examine how ethical restrictions affect the financial performance of Swedish funds with regards to risk-adjusted return. Previous studies have focused on comparing ethical and traditional funds, but this study chose not to make any difference between the two types of funds. The study's relevance is based on how it can make private investors aware of which ethical restrictions that have a negative impact on the risk-adjusted return, and how much each restriction decreases the return. A total of 101 Swedish funds were analyzed. Information about each fund's performance measures were retrieved from Morningstar, and is based on three years development. Information about each fund's ethical restrictions were retrieved from Hållbarhetsprofilen and their information pamphlets. With data about the performance measures Sharpe ratio, Alpha, and Treynor ratio, three statistical models were defined and analyzed with multiple linear regression analysis. Each model's reliability was assessed with residual analysis; the models were adjusted and improved if necessary. Hypotheses were evaluated with significance testing to answer the research questions. The results indicate that exclusion of tobacco and gambling companies affect the risk-adjusted return of Swedish funds negatively, while exclusion of alcohol companies affect the risk-adjusted return positively. This implies that private investors should save their money in Swedish funds that exclude alcohol companies in order to avoid lower risk-adjusted return. / Fondsparandet i Sverige har under de senaste decennierna ökat kraftigt och idag sparar över 60% av befolkningen i fonder. Utöver detta har bland annat miljömedvetenheten hos befolkningen ökat, vilket har bidragit till ett ökat engagemang i hållbarhetsfrågor hos företag. I kölvattnet av dessa trender har allt fler svenska fondbolag valt att införa etiska restriktioner på deras investeringar, så att fondsparare på ett enkelt sätt ska kunna investera hållbart. Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka hur etiska restriktioner påverkar svenska fonders prestation med avseende på riskjusterad avkastning. Där tidigare forskning har fokuserat på att jämföra etiska och traditionella fonder, valde denna studie istället att inte göra någon skillnad mellan de två fondtyperna. Studiens relevans baseras på hur studiens slutsatser kan hjälpa småsparare att bli medvetna om vilka etiska restriktioner som hämmar avkastningen och vad varje restriktion kostar investerare i potentiellt förlorad avkastning. Totalt har 101 svenska fonder undersökts. Information som gäller fondernas prestationsmått har hämtats från Morningstar, och baseras på tre års utveckling. Information om fondernas etiska restriktioner har hämtats från Hållbarhetsprofilen och fondernas informationsbroschyrer. Med insamlad data om prestationsmåtten Sharpekvoten, Alfa, och Treynorkvoten, har tre modeller definierats som sedan analyserats med multipel linjär regressionsanalys. Modellernas tillförlitlighet har sedan utvärderats med residualanalys; modellerna förbättrades om det fanns belägg för det. Utifrån signifikanstest har hypoteser utvärderats för att besvara studiens frågeställningar. Studiens resultat pekar på att exkludering av företag inom tobak- och spelbranschen påverkar svenska fonders riskjusterade avkastning negativt, medan exkludering av företag inom alkoholbranschen påverkar den positivt. Detta betyder alltså att småsparare bör investera i svenska fonder som väljer bort företag inom alkoholbranschen för att undvika låg avkastning.

This study examines the Swedish Stock Exchange during the time period of 1998-2016. Where the purpose is to investigate and compare five different investment strategies to see if these investment strategies can create excess return on their investments, after adjustment for risk. The investment strategies can be found on the internet, and be used after purchasing a smaller amount of money, therefore the results can be applied to all investors independent on their level of experience. The results for the different investment strategies are not clear, the different tests give mixed results which leaves four of five hypotheses unanswered. However, there is one strategy that can be rejected, it cannot beat the market, which is the Net-Nets strategy. In general, one could thus say that the investment strategies can create higher return compared to the market, but that these returns are random. Therefore, it requires a longer time period for the investor as well as higher risk, since one never knows when this large return will be given.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-08-20T13:56:41Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Renan Alves de Freitas_.pdf: 2956894 bytes, checksum: e057a664a6ae2ee57625b2f4d9973422 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-20T13:56:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Renan Alves de Freitas_.pdf: 2956894 bytes, checksum: e057a664a6ae2ee57625b2f4d9973422 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-05 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O Brasil possui uma matriz energética diferente da média mundial, onde a maior parte da geração elétrica é através de fontes renováveis. Entretanto, a expectativa de aumento da carga, os problemas causados pela queima dos combustíveis fósseis e os impactos ambientais das grandes hidrelétricas, são fatores que implicam na necessidade de aumentar a capacidade instalada de outras fontes renováveis. Tal aumento de capacidade requer investimentos em geração renovável, sendo que essa decisão é afetada por diferentes aspectos como a variabilidade na geração, as incertezas no mercado de energia, além da aversão ao risco do investidor, o portfólio de geração da empresa, entre outros. O trabalho apresenta um modelo estocástico de auxílio a tomada de decisão para investimentos em fontes renováveis que considerem esses fatores e maximizem o retorno esperado para um determinado nível de aversão ao risco. Dada as incertezas do problema, é utilizado o Conditional Value-at-Risk, CVaR, para modelar o risco do portfólio em relação aos cenários mais desfavoráveis de receita futura. Os cenários são gerados com base em históricos de geração e os dados de saída do NEWAVE, modelo de planejamento da operação de médio prazo. As simulações expõem como o portfólio atual e a opção de investimento se relacionam em termos de complementação energética. Também se evidencia o risco que a fonte intermitente acarreta à empresa através da avaliação do CVaR, contudo o portfólio atual da empresa pode servir de hedge para o investimento, reduzindo assim o risco do projeto. Os resultados obtidos mostram que a diversificação da capacidade instalada de geração da empresa e a composição complementar das fontes geradoras reduzem os riscos financeiros do portfólio do investidor. O nível de aversão ao risco do decisor também influencia a posição de mercado que a empresa deve adotar, tal que o modelo tende a soluções mais conservadoras a medida que o grau de aversão ao risco aumenta. Assim, confirmando a literatura a existência de um trade-off entre a aversão ao risco e o retorno esperado. / Brazil has a world different energy matrix, where the most part of the electricity generation is by renewable resources. However, the expectation of increase load demand, the problems caused by the burning of fossil fuels and the environmental impacts of large hydropowers are factors that imply the need to increase the installed capacity of other renewable sources. This increase in capacity requires investments in renewable generation, and this decision is affected by different aspects such as variability in generation, uncertainties in the energy market and investor risk aversion, the company’s current portfolio, among others. The paper presents a stochastic decision support model for investments in renewable energy that considers these factors and maximizes the expected return for a given level of risk aversion. To represent the uncertainties of the problem is used the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), that model the portfolio risk in relation to the most unfavorable future revenue scenarios. The scenarios are generated based on past generation and the output data from NEWAVE, the medium-term planning model of the operation system. The simulations show how the current portfolio and the investment option are related in terms of energy complementation. It is also possible to realize that risk for intermittent source entails to company by means of the evaluation of CVaR. In this way, current company portfolio can be a hedge for the investment, thus reducing the risk of the project. The results show that the diversification of the company’s assets and the complementary composition of the generating sources reduce the financial risks of the investor’s portfolio. The risk aversion level of the decision maker also influences the market position that the company must adopt, such that the model tends towards more conservative solutions when the risk aversion is higher. Thus, confirming the literature, the existence of a trade-off between risk aversion and expected return.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2017-06-20T12:21:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 José do Socorro Assis.pdf: 981227 bytes, checksum: 4e2868869711e770d5f230644639437d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-20T12:21:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 José do Socorro Assis.pdf: 981227 bytes, checksum: 4e2868869711e770d5f230644639437d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-07 / The key factors when analyzing invested capital returns versus the risks assumed by financial institutions have been widely discussed in corporate finance. The goal of this study is to understand the contribution of economic-financial factors when explaining the risk-adjusted return on capital: RAROC. In this context, this metric, in its starting point, was used on the foundation of capital management in financial institutions under the approaches of risk mitigation versus maximization return. Therefore, this study considers a sample of eleven banks with capital being traded on BM&FBOVESPA and was distributed in three groups: (i) large, (ii) medium and (iii) small size, with the size defined according to the BACEN criteria described in the Financial Stability Report. The analysis of the economic-financial factors are based on the DuPont model, starting from the ROE (Return On Equity), and afterwards, calculating RAROC in financial institutions, considering three factors: i) capital financial leverage, as the ratio between assets allocated to risks and available risk capital; ii) assets profitability, calculated by the ratio between net revenues and risk-weighted assets, and iii) profit margin rate, which measures the operational and tax efficiency based on the ratio of economic profit to net revenues. The period considered in this analysis is from 2010 to 2015 with semiannual data obtained in the Financial Statements and Risk and Capital Management Documents released by financial institutions, which as selected for being the period after the banking crisis of 2008 and 2009. The methodology adopted is empirical-analytic and the type of research that is characterized as quantitative, descriptive and documentary. The results obtained with the use of Pearson (r) statistical correlation techniques and multiple linear regression in the stepwise method (r2 adjusted), as well as the hypothesis tests, indicated the existence of peculiar characteristics to the studied groups. The group of large banks presented the profit margin rate as the one with the highest explanatory capacity of RAROC with a correlation of 0.982 and r2 of 96.3%, thus demonstrating that the efficient management of the structure costs was presented as a differentiating factor in the Risk-adjusted return on capital. Regarding the group of medium-sized banks, the factors of profitability and profit margin rate profitability presented a modest explanatory capacity and quite similar with r2 of 48.4% and 43.1%, respectively. In the group of small banks, the profit margin rate had a high explanatory power with r2 of 76.1%. It should be considered that the market of medium and small banks is more vulnerable to economic crises and presents a higher cost of funding, thus requiring a continuous search for high specialization, differentiation and flexibility in their businesses. The justification for this work is based on the relevance and timeliness of the theme for the academic community and the representativeness of banking activity in the country's economic development / Os fatores determinantes na geração de retornos de capital investido frente aos riscos assumidos nas instituições financeiras têm sido tema amplamente discutido nas finanças corporativas. O objetivo desta pesquisa é compreender a contribuição dos fatores econômico-financeiros na explicação do desempenho do retorno ajustado ao risco do capital: RAROC (Risk-Adjusted Return On Capital). Neste contexto, a utilização desta métrica teve, como ponto de partida, o fundamento da gestão do capital em instituições financeiras sob os enfoques da alocação em riscos versus a maximização retorno. Para tanto, a pesquisa considera a amostra de onze bancos com ações negociadas na BM&FBOVESPA e distribuídos em três grupos: (i) grande, (ii) médio e (iii) pequeno porte, tendo o porte definido conforme critério do BACEN descrito na Relatório de Estabilidade Financeira. A análise dos fatores econômico-financeiros apoia-se nos fundamentos do modelo DuPont, partindo da decomposição do ROE (Return On Equity) para a calcular o RAROC em instituições financeiras, onde se consideram três fatores: i) alavancagem financeira do capital, sendo a razão entre os ativos alocados em riscos e o capital disponível para riscos; ii) rentabilidade dos ativos, apurada pela razão entre as receitas líquidas e os ativos ponderados pelos riscos, e iii) taxa de lucratividade, medindo a eficiência operacional e tributária a partir da razão entre o lucro econômico e as receitas líquidas. O período selecionado foi de 2010 a 2015, com dados semestrais obtidos nas Demonstrações Financeiras e nos Documentos de Gerenciamento de Riscos e Capital divulgados pelas instituições financeiras, sendo considerado como o período posterior à crise bancária de 2008 e 2009. A metodologia adotada é de natureza empírico-analítica e o tipo de pesquisa caracteriza-se como quantitativa, descritiva e documental. Os resultados obtidos com a utilização de técnicas estatísticas de correlação de Pearson (r) e regressão linear múltipla no método stepwise (r2 ajustado), bem como os testes de hipóteses, onde indicaram a existência de características próprias para os grupos estudados. O grupo de bancos de grande porte apresentou o fator de lucratividade como o de maior capacidade de explicação do RAROC com correlação de 0,982 e r2 de 96,3%, demonstrando assim que a gestão eficiente dos custos da estrutura se apresentou como um fator diferenciador na geração do retorno ajustado ao risco do capital. No que diz respeito ao grupo de bancos de médio porte, os fatores lucratividade e rentabilidade apresentaram moderada capacidade de explicação e bastante similares com r2 de 48,4% e 43,1%, respectivamente. No grupo de bancos de pequeno porte, o fator lucratividade apresentou alta capacidade de explicação com r2 de 76,1%. Deve-se considerar que o mercado de bancos de médio e pequeno porte é mais vulnerável às crises econômicas e com maior custo de captação, exigindo assim a busca contínua da alta especialização, diferenciação e flexibilidade nos seus negócios. A justificativa deste trabalho baseia-se na relevância e atualidade do tema para a comunidade acadêmica e pela representatividade da atividade bancária no desenvolvimento econômico do país