The diploma thesis deals with the evaluation of the effectiveness and risks of a private construction project. This work is divided into two parts. The first part is a theoretical part, which defines the basic concepts associated with investment as such, but also directly with investment in real estate and construction investment. In the second part, this work deals with risk assessment, determination of their size and finally risk management. The end of the theoretical part is the elaboration of methodology for the practical part. The beginning of the practical part the work is devoted to the description of the construction area and specification of the building itself. In the next part are set investment costs, operating income and expenses. Operating income consists of the lease itself. This was determined on the basis of similar investments in the area. Operating expenses are divided into fixed and variable where only fixed are included in the evaluation. Subsequently, the work establishes the profit and loss statement and therefrom the cash flows. The second part defines the risks associated with the construction of the project. The switching value is then calculated for critical project risks. The end of the practical part is devoted to risk management. The conclusion summarizes the results of individual parts of the thesis and a written recommendation for the investor whether to realize the project or not.

The concept of sustainability has become imperative for any organisation in order to survive and prosper in the long term. As such, the management of fraud risk has become an important component for organisations in order to achieve this objective. The purpose of this study was to explore the management of fraud risk within the South African private hospital sector. The study endeavoured to ascertain how private hospitals in South Africa manage fraud risk. In this regard, problem areas in the management of fraud risk were identified, and recommendations are provided in order to improve the management of fraud risk in the South African private hospital sector. Primary data was collected by means of survey research, which involved management staff at head office level and at hospital level, as these two groups were identified to have the required expertise and experience with regard to risk management procedures and practices within South African private hospitals. The findings suggested that South African private hospitals could improve their current risk management practices, in particular with regard to fraud risk. By implementing the recommendations provided by the study, private hospitals will be able to manage fraud risk more effectively. These recommendations will not only be beneficial to private hospitals, but will also have a positive effect on numerous external stakeholders, because the effective management of fraud risk could lead to considerable cost savings. The public hospital sector of South Africa would equally find the research findings and recommendations of value because it could also be applied to their fraud risk management practices. / Business Management / MCOM (Business Management)

Está cada vez mais presente no mercado de crédito a concessão de financiamentos de longo prazo pelas instituições financeiras cujas garantias reais da operação de crédito são empreendimentos de base imobiliária (EBIs), tais como shopping centers, hotéis, hospitais, edifícios de escritórios para locação (EEL), entre outros. Em decorrência, a valuation de EBIs tornou-se de extrema relevância paras os agentes financeiros, uma vez que impacta diretamente na determinação do índice de garantia (IG), importante indicador utilizado pelo credor para aferir a margem de segurança do agente financiador em caso de inadimplência do tomador de recursos. Contudo, a reducionista análise do IG atrelada a atual simplificação promovida pelos bancos de se adotar critérios de avaliação de EBIs sustentados na abordagem do custo, que resulta no valor patrimonial, pode conduzir a resultados viesados ou inconsistentes, além de criar uma pseudoblindagem de exposição ao risco, falseando o processo de tomada de decisão e até mesmo anulando a possibilidade de explorá-lo em benefício do ganho de competividade e rentabilidade. Diante disto e a fim de subsidiar os bancos no que tange à análise da adequabilidade de incorporar EBIs em colateral, a presente tese propõe a estruturação de um sistema de rating para a classificação do risco de vinculação de EBIs em garantia, de forma a refletir o efetivo grau de cobertura proporcionado pelo colateral ante a operação de crédito. O sistema de rating ora proposto está sustentado em dois pilares: [i] na arbitragem do valor de garantia, segundo o conceito de valor da oportunidade de investimento e sob o princípio do value at risk, em que o valor arbitrado do empreendimento está associado à capacidade de geração de renda da propriedade e tem um grau de probabilidade e risco e [ii] na construção da matriz de rating, que constitui o núcleo do sistema de rating e envolve a determinação das dimensões de risco (e dos respectivos parâmetros de risco) ponderadas pela referida matriz, assim denominadas: [a] suficiência da garantia, [b] volatilidade do valor de garantia e [c] lastro patrimonial do empreendimento. Nesta tese, demonstrou-se a aplicação do sistema de rating a partir de um protótipo de referência que considera as relações encontradas no respectivo segmento de mercado e reproduz a configuração de um processo decisório que envolve uma operação de financiamento lastreada por um EEL. Os resultados obtidos evidenciaram que o sistema de rating pode auxiliar a gestão do risco de crédito pelos bancos, na medida em que constitui o ferramental adequado para fornecer informações, de forma ágil e eficiente, acerca do perfil de risco de vinculação de EBIs em colateral, agregando o nível de conforto necessário à decisão. O sistema de rating ora proposto abre uma nova perspectiva de análise do risco de vinculação de EBIs em garantia e constitui uma alternativa consistente ao uso do IG em operações de crédito de longo prazo. / There is a steady trend for the long-term financing of financial institutions whose real guarantees of the credit operation are commercial real estate properties (CREP), such as shopping malls, hotels, hospitals, office buildings, among others. As a result, the valuation of CREP has become extremely relevant for financial agents, since it directly impacts the determination of the guarantee index (GI), an important indicator used by the creditor to assess the margin of safety of the financing agent in the event of default of the borrower. However, the reductionist analysis of the GI coupled with the current simplification promoted by banks to adopt CREP valuation criteria based on the cost or patrimonial value approach may lead to biased or inconsistent results, as well as creating a pseudo-protection of risk exposure, distorting the decision-making process and even nullifying the possibility of exploiting it for the benefit of gaining competitiveness and profitability. In view of this and in order to subsidize the banks in the analysis of the suitability of incorporating CREP into collateral, this thesis proposes the structuring of a rating system for the risk classification of linking CREP into collateral, in order to reflect the effective degree of coverage provided by the collateral before the credit operation. The rating system proposed here is based on two pillars: [i] in the arbitrage of the guarantee value, according to the concept of investment opportunity value and under the principle of value at risk, in which the arbitrated value of the CREP is associated with the ability to generate income from the property and has a degree of probability and risk and [ii] in the construction of the rating matrix, which constitutes the core of the rating system and involves the determination of the risk dimensions (and risk parameters) weighted by that matrix, so-called: [a] collateral sufficiency, [b] volatility of the guarantee value and [c] patrimonial coverage of the property. In this thesis, we demonstrated the application of the rating system from a reference prototype that considers the relationships found in the respective market segment and reproduces the configuration of a decisionmaking process that involves a financing operation backed by an office building. The results obtained showed that the rating system can help the management of credit risk by the banks, as it is the adequate tool to provide information, in a quick and efficient way, about the risk profile of linking CREP into collateral, adding the level of comfort necessary for such decision. The proposed rating system opens a new perspective for analyzing the risk of linking CREP into collateral and constitutes a consistent alternative to the use of the GI in long-term credit operations.

The concept of sustainability has become imperative for any organisation in order to survive and prosper in the long term. As such, the management of fraud risk has become an important component for organisations in order to achieve this objective. The purpose of this study was to explore the management of fraud risk within the South African private hospital sector. The study endeavoured to ascertain how private hospitals in South Africa manage fraud risk. In this regard, problem areas in the management of fraud risk were identified, and recommendations are provided in order to improve the management of fraud risk in the South African private hospital sector. Primary data was collected by means of survey research, which involved management staff at head office level and at hospital level, as these two groups were identified to have the required expertise and experience with regard to risk management procedures and practices within South African private hospitals. The findings suggested that South African private hospitals could improve their current risk management practices, in particular with regard to fraud risk. By implementing the recommendations provided by the study, private hospitals will be able to manage fraud risk more effectively. These recommendations will not only be beneficial to private hospitals, but will also have a positive effect on numerous external stakeholders, because the effective management of fraud risk could lead to considerable cost savings. The public hospital sector of South Africa would equally find the research findings and recommendations of value because it could also be applied to their fraud risk management practices. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

早期壽險業危險分類的結果，僅區分標準體、次標準體以及拒保體，直到1970年代，美國一家壽險公司為了尋找市場利基，開始針對非吸煙保戶給予優惠費率，從此打開市場，創造競爭優勢；這是壽險公司實施優良體保險的開始。 優良體保險的實施，完全符合公平危險對價的理念，對壽險經營產生正面的意義為：一、因有優惠費率的誘因，可吸引更多的健康者購買保險。二、鼓勵壽險公司更專精於死亡率資料的收集分析及死亡原因的探索，藉以促進危險選擇技術的進步。三、壽險公司擴大承保範圍以增加業務量。 國內傳統壽險保單發展已到了成熟階段，如果壽險業者尋求創新和升級的機會，發展優良體保險，讓保費真正反映風險，這樣的精緻保單，或可爭取保戶認同，贏得商機。 參佐國外的經驗，本研究觀察優良體保險應為未來核保及商品發展的趨勢，乃透由文獻資料分析及深度訪談方式，據以了解優良體保險實務運作的概況、國內壽險業實施優良體保險可能面臨的問題與解決之道，以及經營優良體保險之決策程序及行動方案，作為國內業者未來導入優良體保險的參考。 關鍵字：優良體、優良體保險、核保、危險分類。 / In early times, life insurance business classified risk into standard risk, substandard risk, and declined risk only. In 1970s, one life insurance company of the United States began to sell discounted-premium insurance to non-smoking customers who were classified into standard risk class. This innovation opened the preferred risk market and created its own competitive advantages in the insurance market. The era of preferred risk started then. The practices of Preferred Risk Class Insurance have three positive effects on the market: 1. More healthy people will be led to purchase the insurance policies due to the preferential insurance premium. 2. Life insurance companies will put more efforts on collecting and analyzing the death rate and cause, which will promote the development of risk selection practice. 3. Life insurance companies will have more chance to sell high-coverage policies and increase the sales volume. Traditional life insurance policies have gone full-grown nowadays. When life insurance company is willing to innovate and upgrade to develop the preferred risk class insurance policies, this finely insurance policy can attract more customers as long as the premium can reflect the actual risk. Based on the reports of foreign insurance companies, I believe that preferred risk class will be an innovating risk class of life insurance, and will be the product development in the future. This thesis talks about the disputes, solutions, and decision-making processes of the practice of preferred risk insurance. The content can serve as a reference to the insurance industry in Taiwan. Key words: Preferred Risk, Preferred Risk Policy, Underwriting, Risk Classification.

[pt] O objetivo do presente estudo foi investigar a possibilidade de alterações de ratings soberanos de países emergentes produzirem efeitos no mercado acionário brasileiro. Para tanto, adotou-se o teste estatístico paramétrico de estudo de evento, amplamente utilizado para testes de eficiência semi-forte de mercado. Os resultados sugerem que alterações de ratings soberanos de países emergentes produzem efeitos no comportamento dos preços do mercado acionário brasileiro, ainda que sua intensidade esteja associada ao tipo de informação que foi incorporada. Notícias negativas, principalmente os rebaixamentos de outlook, carregam um conteúdo informacional maior do que as positivas. Observou-se ainda a existência de antecipação dos anúncios negativos por parte dos agentes. / [en] The objective of the study was to investigate the possibility that sovereign rating changes of emerging countries impact the brazilian equity market. For such, the parametric statistical test of event study was adopted, widely utilized for semi-strong efficiency market tests. The results indicate that emerging markets sovereign rating changes produce effects over the behavior of brazilian equity market prices, although the intensity of the impact is associated to the type of information that was incorporated. The study shows that negative news, specially the negative outlook rating assignments, produce higher effects on prices compared to positive news. Futhermore, it was noted that market participants anticipate negative news.

Está cada vez mais presente no mercado de crédito a concessão de financiamentos de longo prazo pelas instituições financeiras cujas garantias reais da operação de crédito são empreendimentos de base imobiliária (EBIs), tais como shopping centers, hotéis, hospitais, edifícios de escritórios para locação (EEL), entre outros. Em decorrência, a valuation de EBIs tornou-se de extrema relevância paras os agentes financeiros, uma vez que impacta diretamente na determinação do índice de garantia (IG), importante indicador utilizado pelo credor para aferir a margem de segurança do agente financiador em caso de inadimplência do tomador de recursos. Contudo, a reducionista análise do IG atrelada a atual simplificação promovida pelos bancos de se adotar critérios de avaliação de EBIs sustentados na abordagem do custo, que resulta no valor patrimonial, pode conduzir a resultados viesados ou inconsistentes, além de criar uma pseudoblindagem de exposição ao risco, falseando o processo de tomada de decisão e até mesmo anulando a possibilidade de explorá-lo em benefício do ganho de competividade e rentabilidade. Diante disto e a fim de subsidiar os bancos no que tange à análise da adequabilidade de incorporar EBIs em colateral, a presente tese propõe a estruturação de um sistema de rating para a classificação do risco de vinculação de EBIs em garantia, de forma a refletir o efetivo grau de cobertura proporcionado pelo colateral ante a operação de crédito. O sistema de rating ora proposto está sustentado em dois pilares: [i] na arbitragem do valor de garantia, segundo o conceito de valor da oportunidade de investimento e sob o princípio do value at risk, em que o valor arbitrado do empreendimento está associado à capacidade de geração de renda da propriedade e tem um grau de probabilidade e risco e [ii] na construção da matriz de rating, que constitui o núcleo do sistema de rating e envolve a determinação das dimensões de risco (e dos respectivos parâmetros de risco) ponderadas pela referida matriz, assim denominadas: [a] suficiência da garantia, [b] volatilidade do valor de garantia e [c] lastro patrimonial do empreendimento. Nesta tese, demonstrou-se a aplicação do sistema de rating a partir de um protótipo de referência que considera as relações encontradas no respectivo segmento de mercado e reproduz a configuração de um processo decisório que envolve uma operação de financiamento lastreada por um EEL. Os resultados obtidos evidenciaram que o sistema de rating pode auxiliar a gestão do risco de crédito pelos bancos, na medida em que constitui o ferramental adequado para fornecer informações, de forma ágil e eficiente, acerca do perfil de risco de vinculação de EBIs em colateral, agregando o nível de conforto necessário à decisão. O sistema de rating ora proposto abre uma nova perspectiva de análise do risco de vinculação de EBIs em garantia e constitui uma alternativa consistente ao uso do IG em operações de crédito de longo prazo. / There is a steady trend for the long-term financing of financial institutions whose real guarantees of the credit operation are commercial real estate properties (CREP), such as shopping malls, hotels, hospitals, office buildings, among others. As a result, the valuation of CREP has become extremely relevant for financial agents, since it directly impacts the determination of the guarantee index (GI), an important indicator used by the creditor to assess the margin of safety of the financing agent in the event of default of the borrower. However, the reductionist analysis of the GI coupled with the current simplification promoted by banks to adopt CREP valuation criteria based on the cost or patrimonial value approach may lead to biased or inconsistent results, as well as creating a pseudo-protection of risk exposure, distorting the decision-making process and even nullifying the possibility of exploiting it for the benefit of gaining competitiveness and profitability. In view of this and in order to subsidize the banks in the analysis of the suitability of incorporating CREP into collateral, this thesis proposes the structuring of a rating system for the risk classification of linking CREP into collateral, in order to reflect the effective degree of coverage provided by the collateral before the credit operation. The rating system proposed here is based on two pillars: [i] in the arbitrage of the guarantee value, according to the concept of investment opportunity value and under the principle of value at risk, in which the arbitrated value of the CREP is associated with the ability to generate income from the property and has a degree of probability and risk and [ii] in the construction of the rating matrix, which constitutes the core of the rating system and involves the determination of the risk dimensions (and risk parameters) weighted by that matrix, so-called: [a] collateral sufficiency, [b] volatility of the guarantee value and [c] patrimonial coverage of the property. In this thesis, we demonstrated the application of the rating system from a reference prototype that considers the relationships found in the respective market segment and reproduces the configuration of a decisionmaking process that involves a financing operation backed by an office building. The results obtained showed that the rating system can help the management of credit risk by the banks, as it is the adequate tool to provide information, in a quick and efficient way, about the risk profile of linking CREP into collateral, adding the level of comfort necessary for such decision. The proposed rating system opens a new perspective for analyzing the risk of linking CREP into collateral and constitutes a consistent alternative to the use of the GI in long-term credit operations.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-11-01T17:10:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 raqueldeoliveiramartinsfernandes.pdf: 2255079 bytes, checksum: c9eea3a9464dcd1ce35930aa7d91e868 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-11-09T14:18:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 raqueldeoliveiramartinsfernandes.pdf: 2255079 bytes, checksum: c9eea3a9464dcd1ce35930aa7d91e868 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-11-09T14:19:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 raqueldeoliveiramartinsfernandes.pdf: 2255079 bytes, checksum: c9eea3a9464dcd1ce35930aa7d91e868 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-09T14:19:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 raqueldeoliveiramartinsfernandes.pdf: 2255079 bytes, checksum: c9eea3a9464dcd1ce35930aa7d91e868 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-07 / A presente pesquisa tem por objetivo analisar as relações interpessoais no acolhimento ao usuário na classificação de risco sob a percepção dos enfermeiros das Unidades de Pronto Atendimento de uma cidade mineira. Trata-se de uma pesquisa descritiva de abordagem qualitativa na qual a análise de dados será operacionalizada à luz da hermenêutica dialética. O cenário da pesquisa foram duas unidades de pronto atendimento denominadas “Norte” e “Oeste” de uma cidade mineira. As mesmas utilizam o Sistema de Triagem de Manchester como sistema de acolhimento e classificação de risco. A população-alvo envolveu 17 enfermeiros referentes às duas Unidades de Pronto Atendimento, dos quais sete eram locados na UPA “A” e dez na UPA “B”. Os dados foram coletados por meio das seguintes técnicas: a ambiência, a observação participante, o diário de campo e a entrevista semiestruturada, realizadas no período de 21 a 28 de setembro de 2016. A análise de dados foi operacionalizada à luz da hermenêutica dialética. Foram identificadas as seguintes categorias: o processo do trabalho do enfermeiro na classificação de risco na UPA; percebendo as relações interpessoais com o usuário no processo de acolhimento com classificação de risco e, por fim, fatores limitantes às relações interpessoais no atendimento ao usuário no serviço de urgência e emergência: encontros e desencontros entre o pensar e o fazer. Por meio delas, identificou-se a importância da certificação dos enfermeiros no protocolo Sistema de Triagem Manchester para o bom andamento do processo; a importância do enfermeiro enquanto influenciador da dinâmica dos Serviços de Urgência e Emergência; a atuação do enfermeiro no ACR (Acolhimento com Classificação de Risco) ascende à humanização da assistência; o enfermeiro se vê em uma tentativa de superação do modelo biomédico ao priorizar as relações interpessoais neste contexto; a presença do técnico de enfermagem contribui para uma assistência humanizada; os enfermeiros compreendem e valorizam as relações interpessoais com o usuário, seu par profissional, equipe multidisciplinar e demais trabalhadores; os enfermeiros procuram desenvolver as relações interpessoais por meio de valores como cooperação. Percebeu-se também que sentimentos como respeito e confiança contribuem para qualidade da assistência e que a proximidade emocional, instrumentalizada pela comunicação e escuta qualificada, é fundamental para o desenvolvimento das relações interpessoais. Foram apontados como fatores limitantes às relações interpessoais: o tempo; a superlotação por conta da baixa resolubilidade da Atenção Primária; a insatisfação dos usuários quanto ao STM por desconhecimento de seus objetivos; os conflitos entre médicos e enfermeiros, que impactam a assistência ao paciente. Nenhuma entrevista foi mencionada como “acolhimento”. Conclui-se que, apesar dos SUEs se constituírem em locais de grandes contradições, há de se pensar na importância das relações interpessoais como instrumento catalizador na ação do enfermeiro ao iniciar um processo de transformação no pensar e agir em saúde. E, por fim, acreditando-se que pequenas ações podem transformar contextos, sentimentos, significados e prática, sugere-se um futuro estudo de pesquisa-ação que se beneficie do material desta pesquisa de forma a contribuir para um novo olhar ao ACR. / The present research has the objective of analyzing interpersonal relations with users on receiving in risk classification under nurses’ perception within the Prompt Help Units (Unidades de Pronto Atendimento – UPA) in a city located in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. This is a descriptive research with a qualitative approach which data analysis shall be operated under a dialectic hermeneutics view. The scenario for the research was two prompt help units named “north” and “west” in a city in Minas Gerais. They use the Manchester Tracking System as receiving and risk classification system. The target population involved 17 nurses from both Prompt Help Units, from which 7 nurses were located in UPA “A” and 10 located in UPA “B”. Data were collected through the following techniques: environment, participating observation, field diary and semi-structured interviews that took place from September 21 through 28, 2016. Data analysis was operated through dialectic hermeneutics. The following characteristics were identified: nurses’ working process in risk classification at the UPA; perceiving interpersonal relations with users in the receiving process with risk classification and, finally, limiting factors within interpersonal relations on helping users at the urgency and emergency service: matches and mismatches between what is thought and what is done. Through these it was the importance of nurses’ certification within the Manchester Tracking System protocol for good development at the process; the importance of nurses as influencer of the Urgency and Emergency Services; acting of nurses on receiving with risk classification goes toward assistance humanization; nurses see themselves in an attempt to surpass the biomedical model when they prioritize interpersonal relations in this context; presence of a nursing technician contributes for humanized assistance; nurses understand and value interpersonal relations with users, their professional peers multidisciplinary teams and other workers; nurses also try to develop interpersonal values through values like cooperation. It was also perceived that feelings like respect and trust contribute for assistance quality and that emotional proximity, instrumented by qualified listening and communication, is fundamental for developing interpersonal relations. Limiting factors found were: time; overcrowding due to poor effectiveness of Primary Attention; users’ unsatisfaction with STM due to their unawareness of their objective; conflicts between doctors and nurses that impact assistance to patients. None of the interviews was mentioned as “receiving”. We conclude that, although the SUEs are places with lots of contradictions, we must ponder on the importance of interpersonal relations as a catalyzing instrument in nurses’ action on starting a thought and action transformation in the health field. And finally, by believing that small actions can transform contexts, feelings, meanings and practices we suggest a future action-research study benefitting from the material within this research in order to contribute for a new look at receiving with risk calculation.

[pt] A estimação do risco em seguros de automóveis representa um difícil problema de regressão. As dificuldades vão desde a utilização de um grande número de variáveis discretas como explicativas, até a distribuição particular dos ruídos e uma quantidade expressiva de categorias com valores nulos e valores discrepantes. Supondo que os problemas de estimação estejam relacionados com a classificação do risco adotada pelo mercado, este trabalho propõe um método de classificação alternativo. O método desenvolvido foi baseado na técnica de análise fatorial, e no algoritmo de agrupamento de dados denominado fuzzy clustering system. Para avaliar a eficiência do método em solucionar os problemas de estimação, optou-se por utilizar o erro resultante da aplicação de modelos lineares generalizados. Ao final, o erro de estimação obtido diante da classificação proposta, foi comparado ao obtido diante da classificação usual de mercado. / [en] The estimation of car insurance risk rate represents a difficult regression problem. One of the difficulties of this problem is the use of a number of discrete independent variables and a specific error distribution that presents an expressive number of null and outlier values. Assuming that these estimation problems are related to the risk classification adopted by the insurance companies, this work proposes an alternative classification method. This method is based on factorial analysis techniques and on the algorithm known as Fuzzy Clustering System. To evaluate the efficiency of this method in solving the problems identified, the risk was estimated using generalized linear models. The errors from each model were obtained and compared between classifications.

An easy-to-use quantitative risk analysis model is developed for the private security industry in South Africa, which can be used as a suitable analysing tool in the hands of the private security manager. This model incorporate different concepts such as the probability, impact, cost of risk, degree of correction and the newly established human factor concept, which cannot be seen in isolation. This latter concept plays a major part in the overall risk quantification process in establishing a most accurate risk score rating. The human factor concept, also known as the "CHHP" approach, is the first concept, which will round the model of in an effective measuring way. Human factors such as (i) control measures (ii) human attitude towards the risk (iii) handling of the risk and (iv) understanding and implementation of policies and procedures are combined to form part of the total integrated quantitative risk analysis model, also known as the "TIQCAM"-model. The "TIQCAM"-model uses Excel spreadsheet format as the principal means to illustrate the total integration of all risk concepts and also providing the user of the model with a solid foundation in analyze physical and quantifiable security risks. This model will also enable the user to use it as a value-added service to their clients. / Criminology / D. Litt et Phil.(Police Science)