Les travaux menés dans cette thèse CIFRE s’inscrivent dans le cadre d’une collaboration pérenne entre le CRAN et l'EDF R&D dont un des résultats majeurs a été le développement d'une méthodologie d’analyse de risques, appelée Analyse Intégrée des Risques (AiDR). Cette méthodologie traite des systèmes sociotechniques sous les angles technique, humain et organisationnel et dont les équipements sont soumis à des actions de maintenance et/ou de conduite. La thèse a pour objet ainsi de proposer une évolution du modèle dit de « barrière humaine » développé dans l'AiDR pour évaluer l'efficacité de ces actions humaines prises leur contexte organisationnel. Nos contributions majeures s'organisent autour de 3 axes : 1. Une amélioration de la structure préexistante du modèle de barrière humaine afin d’aboutir à un modèle basé sur des facteurs de forme appelés performance shaping factors (PSF) fournis par les méthodes d’Évaluation Probabiliste de la Fiabilité Humaine (EPFH) ;2. L’intégration de la résilience et la modélisation de l’interaction entre mécanismes résilients et pathogènes impactant l'efficacité des actions dans les relations causales probabilistes ;3. Un traitement global des jugements d’expert cohérent avec la structure mathématique du modèle proposé permettant d’estimer d’une manière objective les paramètres du modèle. Ce traitement se fonde sur la construction d’un questionnaire permettant de "guider" l’expert vers l’évaluation d’effets conjoints issus de l’interaction entre mécanismes pathogènes et résilients. L’ensemble des contributions proposées a été validé sur un cas d’application portant sur une barrière humaine mise en place dans un cas d’inondation externe d’une unité de production d’électricité d’EDF / The work carried out in this CIFRE PhD thesis is part of a long-term collaboration between CRAN and EDF R&D, one of the major results of which was the development of a risk analysis methodology called Integrated Risk Analysis (AiDR). This methodology deals with sociotechnical systems from technical, human and organizational points of view and whose equipment is subjected to maintenance and/or operation activities. This thesis aims to propose an evolution of the so-called "human barrier" model developed in the AiDR in order to evaluate the effectiveness of these human actions taken their organizational context. Our major contributions are organized around 3 axes: 1. Improvement of the pre-existing structure of the human barrier model to achieve a model based on performance shaping factors (PSF) provided by the Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) methods; 2. Integration of resilience and modeling of the interaction between resilient and pathogenic mechanisms impacting the effectiveness of activities in a probabilistic causal framework; 3. A global treatment of the expert judgments consistent with the mathematical structure of the proposed model in order to objectively estimate the parameters of the model. This treatment is based on a questionnaire to guide experts towards the evaluation of joint effects resulting from the interaction between pathogenic and resilient mechanisms. All of the proposed contributions have been validated on an application case involving a human barrier put in place during an external flooding occurring at an EDF power plant

A crescente preocupação com o nível de risco associado ao transporte de materiais perigosos levou várias instituições internacionais a empenhar esforços na avaliação de risco em nível regional. Seguindo essa tendência, o objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar os mais recentes processos de análise de riscos decorrentes do transporte rodoviário de materiais perigosos. No presente trabalho foram avaliadas 21 metodologias de análise de riscos, desenvolvidas por vários autores e para diversas localidades. Em especial, duas foram revistas e discutidas: um método recentemente desenvolvido pelo Instituto Federal Suíço de Tecnologia (Nicolet-Monnier e Gheorghe, 1996) e a estratégia delineada pelo Center for Chemical Process Safety - CCPS (1995), levando em consideração a estimativa do risco individual e social. Também foram aplicados os modelos de Harwood et al. (1990) e de Ramos (1997), adaptados por Hartman (2003) à realidade das estradas do Estado de São Paulo. A extensão dessas metodologias foi explorada, a fim de encontrar as suas vantagens e desvantagens. Como estudo de caso o presente trabalho considerou o transporte de amônia ao longo de duas rotas possíveis por rodovias do Estado de São Paulo, incluindo uma parcela significativa de avaliação em área densamente povoada, obtendo-se os resultados utilizando uma das metodologias de analise de risco. A inovação proposta por esse trabalho foi a pesquisa, o desenvolvimento e a introdução de duas variáveis ao modelo proposto por Harwood et al. (1990). Essas variáveis ponderadoras no valor do risco foram: a idade do condutor e a zona de impacto conforme o período do dia em que o transporte foi realizado em função do volume do produto transportado. As alterações propostas têm como objetivo deixar o valor do risco mais sensível em relação ao tipo do produto transportado e a idade do condutor. As principais etapas processuais relacionadas com a análise quantitativa dos riscos para sistemas de transporte são suportadas pelos métodos precedentes para instalações fixas. Especial atenção foi dada à forma de coletar informações locais e para estimar coeficientes que refletissem as condições prevalecentes na região considerada no estudo de caso apresentado. / The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of São Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of São Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages with the quantitative analysis of the risks for transportation systems are supported by the preceding methods for fixed installations. Special attention was given on to how to collect local information and estimate those coefficients that represent the actual conditions of the region considered in the presented study case.

Ao longo das últimas décadas, o paradigma de sistemas críticos em segurança vem sofrendo transformações como forma de se adequar às novas necessidades demandadas, tais como redução de custos e aumento da produtividade. No Sistema de Gerenciamento de Tráfego Aéreo, esta transformação é preconizada pelo paradigma CNS/ATM (Communication, Navigation, Surveillance / Air Traffic Management), baseado no uso de novas tecnologias digitais, sobretudo satélites, aplicadas à comunicação, à vigilância, à navegação e ao gerenciamento do tráfego aéreo. O CNS/ATM visa reduzir as restrições do atual paradigma de tráfego aéreo como forma de atender sua crescente demanda, mantendo (ou melhorando) os atuais níveis de segurança. Porém, esta mudança de paradigma traz consigo novos desafios e necessidades, sobretudo, quanto à forma de se avaliar os sistemas resultantes. Em face destes novos desafios e problemas enfrentados, este trabalho propôs um método de avaliação de risco, constituído pela união dos métodos \"absoluto\" e \"relativo\" preconizados pela Organização da Aviação Civil Internacional (OACI), pelo emprego do formalismo das redes de Petri Fluidas e Estocásticas (RPFE) na modelagem dos sistemas, e pela comparação entre os valores de métricas de segurança estimados para o sistema avaliado e para um sistema legado. Este método foi aplicado para avaliar a segurança na mudança do atual paradigma de vigilância aérea, baseado em equipamentos Radar, para o paradigma de Vigilância Dependente Automática por Radiodifusão (ADS-B). Como conclusões, o método proposto mostrou-se promissor para avaliar a segurança de sistemas baseados nos atuais paradigmas de sistema críticos em segurança, especialmente o CNS/ATM, onde o formalismo das RPFE proporcionou modelar suas principais características, e a simulação por eventos discretos permitiu estimar as métricas desejadas. Além disso, a ADS-B mostrou-se uma aplicação viável para a vigilância no Sistema de Controle de Tráfego Aéreo, sendo capaz de reduzir o nível de exposição das aeronaves a eventos de perda de separação e, assim, melhorar os níveis de segurança do tráfego aéreo. / In last decades, the safety critical systems paradigm has changing to adapt itself to new necessities, such as costs reduction and productivity demand growth. In the Air Traffic System, those changes are ruled by CNS/ATM paradigm (Communication, Navigation, Surveillance / Air Traffic Management), based on new digital Technologies, mainly Satellites, applied to Communication, Surveillance, Navigation and Air Traffic Management. CNS/ATM intends to reduce the restrictions of current air traffic paradigm, enabling the growth of air traffic capacity without affecting current safety levels. However, this new paradigm brings together new challenges and needs, mainly related to safety assessment. In face of these new challenges, this work proposed a method of risk assessment constituted by the union of the \"absolute\" and \"relative\" assessment methods adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), by modeling systems using Fluid Stochastic Petri Nets (FSPN) formalism, and by comparison between safety metrics obtained from proposed and legacy system simulations. This method was applied to assess a new concept of air traffic surveillance, named \"Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcasting\" (ADS-B). As main conclusions, the proposed method was promising to assess system safety properties based on current safety critical system paradigm, especially the CNS/ATM, where FSPN formalism provided important modeling capabilities and discrete event simulation allowed estimating the desired safety metric. Besides, ADS-B has meaningfully reduced the separation losses risks and, therefore, it could be used to air traffic control surveillance system to improve capacity and/or safety levels of air traffic system.

O problema de Planejamento da Expansão de Sistemas de Distribuição (PESD) visa determinar diretrizes para a expansão da rede considerando a crescente demanda dos consumidores. Nesse contexto, as empresas distribuidoras de energia elétrica têm o papel de propor ações no sistema de distribuição com o intuito de adequar o fornecimento da energia aos padrões exigidos pelos órgãos reguladores. Tradicionalmente considera-se apenas a minimização do custo global de investimento de planos de expansão, negligenciando-se questões de confiabilidade e robustez do sistema. Como consequência, os planos de expansão obtidos levam o sistema de distribuição a configurações que são vulneráveis a elevados cortes de carga na ocorrência de contingências na rede. Este trabalho busca a elaboração de uma metodologia para inserir questões de confiabilidade e risco ao problema PESD tradicional, com o intuito de escolher planos de expansão que maximizem a robustez da rede e, consequentemente, atenuar os danos causados pelas contingências no sistema. Formulou-se um modelo multiobjetivo do problema PESD em que se minimizam dois objetivos: o custo global (que incorpora custo de investimento, custo de manutenção, custo de operação e custo de produção de energia) e o risco de implantação de planos de expansão. Para ambos os objetivos, são formulados modelos lineares inteiros mistos que são resolvidos utilizando o solver CPLEX através do software GAMS. Para administrar a busca por soluções ótimas, optou-se por programar em linguagem C++ dois Algoritmos Evolutivos: Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-2 (NSGA2) e Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm-2 (SPEA2). Esses algoritmos mostraram-se eficazes nessa busca, o que foi constatado através de simulações do planejamento da expansão de dois sistemas testes adaptados da literatura. O conjunto de soluções encontradas nas simulações contém planos de expansão com diferentes níveis de custo global e de risco de implantação, destacando a diversidade das soluções propostas. Algumas dessas topologias são ilustradas para se evidenciar suas diferenças. / The Distribution System Expansion Planning (DSEP) problem aims to determine guidelines to expand the network considering the growing demand of customers. In this context, the distribution companies have to propose actions for improvements in the distribution system in order to adjust the supply of energy to the standards required by regulators. Traditionally minimizing the global cost of expansion plans is the only goal that is considered, thus reliability and robustness issues are neglected. As a result, the optimal expansion plans lead the distribution system to configurations that are vulnerable to high load shedding under the occurrence of contingencies in the network. This work aims to develop a methodology to insert reliability and risk issues to the traditional DSEP problem in order to maximize the robustness of the network and hence mitigate the system damages caused by contingencies. We formulated a multi-objective model of the problem that compromises two objectives: minimization of the global cost (that comprises investment cost, maintenance cost, operational cost, and production cost) and minimization of the deployment risk of expansion plans. For both objectives, we formulated mixed integer linear models which are solved using CPLEX accessed through GAMS. To manage the search for optimal solutions, we chose to implement in C++ language two Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs): Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-2 (NSGA2) and Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm-2 (SPEA2). The effectiveness of both algorithms was verified through simulations of the expansion planning of two test systems, adapted from the literature. The set of solutions that has been found contains expansion plans with different levels of global cost and deployment risk. Some of these topologies are depicted to show this diversity of the proposed solutions.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a worldwide public health concern. While it is evident that the use of antibiotics creates selection pressure for the evolution of antibiotic resistance genes, there are still considerable knowledge gaps relating to the status quo of antibiotic use, emergence of resistant pathogens in different livestock production systems and spread within human and animal communities. This thesis includes a survey of antibiotic use in the dairy sector within a specific area of Zambia and analysis of AMR and virulence factors in E. coli isolated from dairy cattle and diarrhoea human patients with the following objectives. 1. To investigate the usage of antibiotics in the dairy sector and the drivers for use. 2. To determine the prevalence and patterns of antimicrobial resistance in E. coli isolated from faecal samples of dairy cattle. 3. To use whole genome sequencing (WGS) to investigate the molecular epidemiology of resistance determinants in E. coli strains isolated from both dairy cattle and humans. 4. To assess the zoonotic potential of isolated E. coli focusing on Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) and relationship to STEC associated with clinical disease in the UK. In view of these objectives, the first part of the work was carried out in Zambia and involved a questionnaire, a field survey, isolation of E. coli from dairy cattle faecal samples and phenotypic testing for AMR. In addition, E. coli isolates were obtained from another study that was focused on human patients presenting with diarrhoea at the University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka. The second part involved whole genome sequencing and molecular analyses of E. coli for resistance and virulence genotypes at the Roslin Institute (UK). For the field study, a stratified random sample of 104 farms was studied, representing approximately 20% of all dairy farms in the region. On each farm, faecal samples were collected from a random sample of animals and a standardised questionnaire on the usage of antibiotics was completed. An E. coli isolate was obtained from 98.67% (371/376) of the sampled animals and tested for resistance against the six types of antibiotics (tetracycline, ampicillin, sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim, cefpodoxime, gentamicin and ciprofloxacin). These E. coli were then analysed together with those from humans for genotypes in the laboratory and from Illumina short read whole genome sequences using bioinformatics tools. Tetracylines and penicillin were the commonly used antibiotics in dairy herds. This finding was in line with the resistance phenotypes detected in E. coli isolated from the dairy cattle. The most prevalent AMR was to tetracycline (10.61; 95%CI: 7.40-13.82), followed by ampicillin (6.02; 95%CI: 3.31-8.73), sulfamethoxazole/ trimethoprim (4.49; 95%CI: 2.42-6.56), cefpodoxime (1.91; 95%CI: 0.46-3.36), gentamicin (0.89; 95%CI: 0.06-1.84) and ciprofloxacin (0%). The risk analysis indicated that AMR was associated with livestock diseases (lumpy skin disease and foot rot), exotic breeds (Jersey and Friesian), location, farm size and certain management practices. Analysis of whole genome sequences showed that isolates from humans had both higher levels and a greater diversity of resistance alleles than the cattle isolates. Common genotypes in both populations were: tetA (16%), tetB (10%), tetC (2%) for cattle isolates with tetA (32%), tetB (22%) and tetD (1%) in human isolates. Other common genotypes were blaTEM (56%), sul1 (29%), sul2 (66%), strA4 (57%) and strB1 (64%) in isolates of human origin while blaTEM (15%), sul1 (3%), sul2 (17%), strA4 (13%) and strB1 (19%) were in the cattle isolates. Whilst the E. coli isolates from cattle encoded resistance to common antibiotics of limited significance to human clinical medicine, isolates from humans had additional extended spectrum beta-lactamases (blaOXA, blaCMY, blaNDM, and blaDHA, blaOKP and blaCTX-M) that encode for resistance to essential antibiotics such as third generation cephalosporins and carbapenems. This was an evidence that AMR is an ongoing public health subject in Zambia but the exclusivity of certain resistances in the human population points to limited or no exchange of genotypes between E. coli of human origin and those from cattle. AMR in humans was probably independently selected by the use of antibiotics of clinical importance such as cephalosporin and fluoroquinolones. The virulence analysis focused on STEC, 11% (41/371) of E. coli isolates from cattle contained Shiga toxin genes (stx) while none (0/73) of the human isolates were positive. Phylogenetic analysis showed a random distribution of bovine STEC, with no indication of clonal spread. Although 89% (16/18) of the STEC tested had a cytotoxic effect on Vero cells, indicative of Shiga toxin production, only three (O45, O111, O157) belonged to one of the seven serogroups (O26, O157, O111, O103, O121, O145 and O45) associated with life-threatening enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) infections in humans. In line with this, only the O157 serotype encoded a type 3 secretion system. This shows that, while Stx-encoding strains are common in these dairy herds of Zambia, they are not strain backgrounds known to pose an immediate threat to human health as they lack colonisation factors that are found in typical human EHEC. However, we must remain vigilant as emergence of EHEC strains in these animals remains an ever-present threat.

Transportation of oil and gas by the Sea characterizes challenges from a safety viewpoint. In this type of transportation, different sizes of special tankers carrying oil and gas. The marine transportation of these scarce natural riches is involved with risks and hazards, which may lead to many losses; for instance, wasting oil and gas, injuries of people, damaging ships and properties, and damaging environment. The main purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the risks, hazards, and accidents during transportation of oil and gas (mainly Crude Oil, liquefied petroleum gas, and Liquefied natural gas) by the Sea with concentrating on transport safety. Hence, a better understanding of these risks and hazards can contribute to decrease of addressed losses.This study is carried out on risks associated with maritime transportation of oil and gas starting with describing the general casual chain (dealing with causes, incidents, accidents and consequences/causalities), continuing with describing risk analysis techniques (including event tree analysis and fault tree analysis) and risk control measures/options, and finally implementing aforesaid investigations on real data from two areas; namely UK territorial waters and the Baltic Sea.In this study, the results of analyzing data from 1991 to 2010 in UK territorial waters revealed that collision and grounding were two most common accidents in terms of crude oil tankers, LPG and LNG carriers in which 44% of all accidents were equally divided between collision and grounding. In this case, investigation on data from 2004 to 2010 in the Baltic Sea regarding tankers with cargo types of crude oil, oil, oil product and gases also repeated the same findings in that collision and grounding shared the biggest proportion of accidents with 50% and 34% respectively. Analysis of data in UK territorial waters provided that human factor was the main reason behind accidents with 46% followed by technical factor with 39%. Human factor and technical factor recognized also as the main causes of accidents in the Baltic Sea with 33% and 25% respectively. Regarding this subject, human error recognized as the chief culprit and failures in part of design & construction was the second main initial causes of accidents in terms of both human and technical factors. The results of analyzing records from the Baltic Sea also provided that whilst human factor shared the biggest proportion of causes behind accidents, technical factor was the only cause of accidents contributing to all types of accidents. Findings are useful from safety outlook as if specifying accidents and causes of accidents during the Sea transportation of oil and gas. / Program: MSc in Industrial Engineering - Logistics Management

Este estudo aborda o exame das estratégias e formas organizacionais que mais se adeqüem para uma empresa prosperar em ambientes imprevisíveis e turbulentos globalizados. Em particular o que se desejou investigar foram os principais atributos e estratégias para que uma empresa proveniente de um país emergente encontrasse uma maneira de prosperar num mercado internacional dominado por empresas multinacionais provenientes dos países desenvolvidos. O método de estudo utilizado foi análise de caso único com replicação teórica. Trata-se de uma construtora brasileira que conseguiu se posicionar entre as trinta maiores multinacionais de faturamento no exterior. A análise das proposições teóricas formuladas com base na literatura, comparada com os dados do mercado internacional de construção e do estudo de caso permitiu algumas conclusões. Primeiro, saber trabalhar na turbulência pode ser um diferencial competitivo, um caminho alternativo para fazer frente às multinacionais tradicionais. Contudo este é um fator restritivo. Exige uma cultura organizacional diferenciada que vai se constituir em um elemento de difícil reprodução quanto à sua velocidade de crescimento, pois depende da aculturação de seus integrantes. Por outro lado, trabalhar em ambientes imprevisíveis exige não somente agilidade e criatividade para aproveitar oportunidades, como também pressupõem uma visão antecipatória das ameaças endógenas e exógenas, difíceis de serem disseminadas na organização. Os resultados observados validaram as formulações teóricas iniciais e podem contribuir com o corpo teórico da literatura analisada. / This study approaches the strategies and forms of the organizations in companies that needs to prosper in unexpected and turbulent globalized environments. In particular it was desired to investigate their main attributes and strategies so that a company proceeding from an emergent country found a way to prosper in an international market dominated by multinationals companies proceeding from the developed countries. The method of study was one case study with theoretical response. This case is about a Brazilian contractor which had achieved to be at the worlds top thirty invoicing multinationals. The analysis of the theoretical proposals formulated on the basis of the literature, compared with the data of the international market of construction and the case study allowed some conclusions. First, knowing how to work in the turbulence can be a competitive differential, an alternative way to make front to the traditional multinationals. However this is a restrictive factor. It demands a differentiated organizational culture that goes to consist in a restrictive element when it comes to its speed of growth, therefore depends on the culture change of its integrants. On the other hand, to work in unexpected environments not only demands agility and creativity to take advantage of the chances, as also they estimate an anticipated vision of the endogenous and exogenous threats, difficult to be spread across the organization. The observed results had validated the initial theoretical proposals and can contribute with the theoretical part of analyzed literature.

O risco de incêndio e seus prejuízos às vidas humanas e ao patrimônio tornaram-se cada vez maiores com o desenvolvimento urbano e a evolução da construção civil. Assim, os meios de proteção contra o incêndio tornam-se cada vez mais necessários, tanto os meios ativos (sprinklers, brigada de incêndio, etc), quanto os meios passivos (proteção térmica de estruturas, etc). Em situação de incêndio, a proteção à vida e ao patrimônio deve ser garantida pelos meios de proteção das edificações evitando-se o colapso de parte ou toda estrutura. A eventualidade do sinistro não deve ser desprezada sendo que, melhorar o desempenho das estruturas visando a iminência de um incêndio é sinônimo de economia em um aspecto abrangente: proteção à vida, ao patrimônio e à atividade econômica desenvolvida no estabelecimento. Neste trabalho, realiza-se uma apresentação do tema comportamento das estruturas de concreto em situação de incêndio, abordando aspectos de análise de risco incêndio, seguro contra incêndio, o fenômeno incêndio e suas variáveis, meios de proteção térmica das estruturas e aspectos arquitetônicos e estruturais que influenciam na probabilidade de ocorrência de um incêndio. No plano experimental, analisa-se a susceptibilidade ao fogo do concreto, através da aferição da perda de resistência mecânica de alguns traços submetidos a curvas de temperatura. Realiza-se também a análise de um caso real de incêndio sob o ponto de vista da descrição do incêndio, seus danos às estruturas de concreto e metodologia de recuperação das estruturas afetadas. / The fire risk and its damage to the human being lifes and to the assets had become each time greater with the urban development and the evolution of civil construction. Thus, the ways of fire protection become each time more necessary, as much the direct assets (fire sprinklers, brigade, etc), as the indirect assets (structural thermal insullation, etc). In fire situation, the protection to the life and the assets must be guaranteed by the ways of protection inside buildings, preventing high costs of structural recovery and, mainly, the immediate collapse of all or part of the structure. The ocurrence of a fire accident does not have to be rejected and improving the performance of the structures aiming at the imminence of a fire is synonymous of economy in an including aspect: protection to the life, protection to the assets and to the activities in the building. In this work, a general overview of the behavior of concrete structures in fire situation is presented, approaching aspects of fire risk analysis, fire insurance, the fire phenomenon and its interferences, methods for thermal insullation and structural and architectural aspects that have influence in the probability of a fire occurrence. In the experimental plan, the susceptibility of hardened concrete to the fire is analysed, through the measurement of its mechanical resistance loss submitted to the high temperatures. The analysis of a real fire case in a building is also presented, highlighting the description of the fire, its damages to the hardened concrete structures and the development of a methodology of recovering the affected structures.

The thesis is focused on the evalution of real investment. In the theoretical part are summarized the basic analysis, investment characteristics, their input parameters and evalution methods which are needed to assess the investment. In the practical part of the work the company is introduced at first, after analysis of the external enviroment and inner potential of the company is performed. Next investment project is presented, his input parameters and evaluation of the methods from the theoretical part is performed. In finally analysis of sensitivity and complex evaluation of the project is performed. The aim of this thesis will be give recommendations for the management of the company, if the project implement or not implement.

nÃo hà / A proposta metodolÃgica de avaliaÃÃo de riscos em barragens do nordeste brasileiro, com estudo de caso em 77 barragens do Estado do Ceara, sendo 62 barragens estaduais e 15 federais, visa hierarquizar um conjunto de barragens a partir das inspeÃÃes, incorporando: o nÃvel de perigo; probabilidades; custos; severidade (prejuÃzo a ser evitado); benefÃcio lÃquido equivalente, o qual à o resultado da severidade decrescida do custo da eliminaÃÃo da anomalia com nÃvel de perigo; e seus riscos, para buscar a eficiÃncia na aplicaÃÃo dos recursos financeiros de melhoria da seguranÃa atravÃs de obras de recuperaÃÃo das barragens a fim de atender a sociedade. A proposta metodolÃgica parte, inicialmente, da determinaÃÃo da probabilidade de ruptura anual da barragem (a partir do nÃvel de perigo da anomalia) e dos custos (da recuperaÃÃo da ruptura hipotÃtica da barragem e da eliminaÃÃo das anomalias que apresentam perigo). A metodologia considera trÃs critÃrios a saber: CritÃrio 1: critÃrio da melhor eficiÃncia na aplicaÃÃo dos recursos para a reduÃÃo fÃsica do perigo da barragem (NPB/CeNP); CritÃrio 2: critÃrio do BenefÃcio LÃquido equivalente (BLe); e CritÃrio 3: critÃrio do Escore de Risco (ER), desenvolvido a partir de trÃs metodologias conhecidas de avaliaÃÃo qualitativa de risco. A metodologia propÃe para os tomadores de decisÃo a classificaÃÃo das barragens atravÃs da ponderaÃÃo destes trÃs critÃrios. A metodologia permite tambÃm verificar qual dos 3 critÃrios apresenta melhor eficiÃncia na aplicaÃÃo dos recursos financeiros para a reduÃÃo dos riscos, como tambÃm possibilita averiguar a eficiÃncia econÃmica, atravÃs do benefÃcio lÃquido equivalente, em funÃÃo do valor a ser investido na eliminaÃÃo da anomalia com perigo. A metodologia proposta possibilita obter-se o risco econÃmico do benefÃcio lÃquido equivalente a partir da Teoria dos NÃmeros Difusos utilizando as duas principais incertezas do modelo: a estimativa da probabilidade de ruptura anual (PRA) e o custo de recuperaÃÃo da ruptura da barragem (CRrup), aplicando-se nos dois critÃrios que consideram custos (critÃrios 1 e 2). Observou-se para o caso estudado que o risco do benefÃcio lÃquido econÃmico, quando a priorizaÃÃo das barragens à feita pelo critÃrio do benefÃcio lÃquido (CritÃrio - 2), à crescente com a disponibilidade financeira. Os riscos sÃo menores para o critÃrio 2 (BLe), sendo este crescente com o valor a ser utilizado na recuperaÃÃo. O mesmo nÃo se visualiza no critÃrio 1, quando se tem um risco mÃnimo intermediÃrio. O risco econÃmico difuso do benefÃcio lÃquido equivalente (para ambos os critÃrios) no caso de se eliminar todos os perigos das anomalias à de 3,83%. / The methodological proposal of risk analysis in dams of the brazilian northeast, with case study of 77 dams (62 State and 15 Federal dams) in the State of CearÃ, aims to hierarchize a set of dams from the inspections, incorporating level of danger, probabilities, costs, severity (damage to be avoided), equivalent net benefits, which is the cost of elimination of the anomalies with level of danger reduced from the severity and its risks to search for the efficiency in the application of the financial resources improvement of dams safety to the welfare of the society. The proposal begins with the determination of the annual rupture probability (from the hazard) and the costs (from the rehabilitation of an hypothetical rupture of the dam and from the elimination of the anomalies that presents hazard). Three criteria were considered for classification of dams, named as Criteria 1, 2 and 3, as follows: Criterion 1: best efficiency in application of the resources for the physical reduction of hazard of the dams (NPB/CeNP); Criterion 2: economic equivalent Net Benefit (BLe); and Criterion 3: Score of Risk (ER) developed from three known risk qualitative methodologies. The proposal methodology permits the decision makers to classify the dams from the weigh of the three criteria set before. The methodology also permits to verify which of the three criteria presents better efficiency in application of the financial resources to reduce the risks, and also enable to perform an economic efficiency analysis having as base the economic equivalent net benefit in function of the value invested in the elimination of the danger. The methodology proposes to obtain the economic risk from the theory of Fuzzy Sets using the two main uncertainties of the model: the estimation of the probability of annual rupture and the cost of rehabilitation of the dam, applying in the two criteria that consider costs (criteria 1 and 2). In the case study it was observed in the criterion 2 that the risk increases with investments. In the case of partial use of resources, the risks are lesser for the criterion 2 (BLe). In this criterion the economic risk increases with the spent resources. The same does not happen in criterion 1, which presents an intermediate minimum risk. The diffuse economic risk of the equivalent net benefit to be negative is 3,83%, to both criteria, in case of eliminating all the hazards.