В условиях повышающейся глобальной конкуренции на рынках промышленной продукции крупные промышленные предприятия все чаще сталкиваются с проблемами адаптации к ситуациям, возникающим в турбулентной внешней среде. Одним из первых шагов к успешной адаптации к условиям такой внешней среды является целенаправленное и последовательное управление производственными системами на основе единой стратегии. Одним из неотъемлемых элементов стратегического мышления являются системные подходы к оценке и управлению производственными рисками. / In the face of increasing global competition in industrial production markets, large industrial enterprises are increasingly confronted with problems of adaptation to situations arising in turbulent environments. One of the first steps towards successful adaptation to the conditions of such an external environment is the purposeful and consistent management of production systems on the basis of a unified strategy. One of the integral elements of strategic thinking are system approaches to the assessment and management of operational risks.

Актуальность темы магистерской диссертации обусловлена потребностью компании йога-туров в подборе и внедрении решения модернизации способа стимулирования повторных продаж. Научная новизна исследования заключается в разработке решения по модернизации процесса стимулирования повторных продаж, основанного на анализе рисков и текущих бизнес-процессов компании сферы туризма Черноморского побережья Российской Федерации. Результаты работы: разработана стратегия цифровизации для компании йога-туров, увеличивающая эффективность процесса повторной продажи тура. / The relevance of the topic of the master's thesis is due to the need of the yoga tours company in the selection and implementation of a solution to modernize the method of stimulating repeat sales. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of a solution to modernize the process of stimulating repeat sales, based on an analysis of risks and current business processes of a company in the tourism sector of the Black Sea coast of the Russian Federation. Results of the work: a digitalization strategy has been developed for the yoga tours company, which increases the efficiency of the process of re-selling the tour.

The text discusses the importance of risk analysis in the context of Compliance Management Systems for companies in German criminal law. It emphasizes that, despite personal criminal liability for individuals, companies can face consequences through special rules for fines or confiscation orders if their representatives commit offenses on behalf of the company. A common offense leading to such consequences is the breach of supervisory duties under Section 130 of the German Act for Administrative Offences (OWiG). The text highlights the necessity of a Compliance Risk Analysis as the foundation for any Compliance Management System. This analysis involves three key steps: identifying structural compliance risks, evaluating the existing compliance management system, and analyzing risks based on consequences and probability. The structural analysis examines existing compliance structures such as guidelines, training, and process descriptions. Key points include the significance of corporate culture in compliance, focusing on the 'tone from the top,' the 'zero-tolerance principle,' and the error culture. The text concludes with the definition and implementation of measures to avoid risks, encouraging regular risk analyses for continuous improvement of compliance management systems. In summary, the text addresses how companies can identify, assess, and manage risks related to legal compliance to establish and maintain effective Compliance Management Systems.

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Vid inträffandet av naturolyckor och katastrofer påverkas människor i olika omfattning, inte bara beroende på deras bostads läge utan även utifrån deras sociala förhållanden och förutsättningar. I denna studie genomförs en riskanalys samt utvecklas en metod för beräkning av ett områdes sociala sårbarhet genom ett index. Studiens geografiska avgränsning är en sträcka av Klarälven i Värmland och baseras på data framställt av Skogsstyrelsen, Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap (MSB), Lantmäteriet och Statistiska centralbyrån (SCB).   I studien beräknades ett socialt sårbarhetsindex genom att kombinera flera lager av SCB:s statistiska data i ett geodatalager med kvadratiska polygoner. Det sociala sårbarhetsindexet kombinerades sedan med resultatet från en flerfaroanalys (multi-hazard analysis) med flera översvämningsscenarion samt områden känsliga för jordskred och ras. Flerfaroanalysen utfördes genom en sammanställning av MSB:s kartering av potentiella översvämningsscenarion och Skogsstyrelsens kartering av områden som kan drabbas av ras eller jordskred. Det sociala sårbarhetsindexet och flerfaroanalysen karterades och överlagrades för att identifiera särskilt sårbara områden.   Med hjälp av det sociala sårbarhetsindexet identifieras en högre social sårbarhet i mer tätbebyggda områden. Indexet påvisar även en högre social sårbarhet i den södra halvan av studieområdet. I flerfaroanalysen ses naturolyckorna variera i omfattning över studieområdet. I den norra delen är risken för jordskred och ras större än i den södra delen som nästan enbart drabbas av översvämningar. Resultaten från riskanalysen visar en “medel-risk” längs en längre sträcka av Klarälven och ökad risk i tätbebyggda områden. För förbättring av det sociala sårbarhetsindexet behövs mer detaljerade data över mindre områden för att öka indexets tillförlitlighet och användningsområden. / When natural phenomena and disasters occur, people are affected to varying degrees, not only depending on the location of their homes, but also on the basis of their social background. In this study, a multi-hazard risk analysis and a method for estimating an area’s social vulnerability through an index were developed. The study was carried out along River Klarälven in Värmland and was based on data produced by the Swedish forest agency, The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), The Swedish Mapping, Cadastral and Land Registration Authority and Statistics Sweden (SCB).   The study presents a social vulnerability index by combining several layers of SCB's statistical data, in a geodata layer with square polygons. The social vulnerability index was combined with a multi-hazard analysis considering several flood scenarios and landslide susceptibility. The multi-hazard analysis was performed through a compilation of MSB's mapping of potential flood scenarios and the Swedish forest agency’s mapping of areas that may be affected by landslides. The social vulnerability index and the results from the multi-hazard analysis were mapped and combined in order to identify areas with substantial risk.    The social vulnerability index indicates a higher social vulnerability in more densely populated areas. The index also shows a slightly higher social vulnerability in the southern half of the study area. The results from the multi-hazard analysis, the spatial distribution of natural hazards varied. The northern part of the study area has a greater susceptibility to landslides than the southern part, which is almost exclusively are induced by floods and extreme flows. The result of the risk analysis shows a “medium risk” along the largest studied part of the River Klarälven and a slightly increased risk in densely populated areas. For future improvements in the development of the social vulnerability index, more data is needed with a higher spatial resolution to increase the index's reliability and areas of use.

Today’s car development is progressing rapidly, and new car models are constantly being produced. These new vehicles are adapted to today’s digital society and all its needs. An important issue is how well security is involved in this technological development. With all these successes, there are also possible vulnerabilities. Thus, the cybersecurity aspect is a crucial part in the development of modern vehicles due to possible exploitation that have taken place and can take place in the future. The main problem researched within this thesis was to investigate the safety of Volvo’s Vehicle Infotainment System (IV). To analyze such a complex system, a threat model was created by gathering necessary data, inspecting a physical rig sent by the manufacturer, and receiving feedback from industry experts. Furthermore, several attack simulations were performed on the threat model, generating several attack paths and probabilistic graphs that were analyzed. This work resulted in a threat model that represented the physical IV. The model included identifications of interesting entry points from which an attacker can start different attacks. After investigation, the Bluetooth network and the operating system of the Infotainment Head Unit (IHU) were both chosen as entry points for the attack simulations. The attack simulations made on the model were tested in different scenarios because this resulted in a more comprehensive outcome. The results of the attack simulations were that in comparison to a low- security scenario, the high-security cases decreased the success rate of compromising the targeted asset. However, enabling every possible defenses, there were no attack paths generated, but the results showed that an attacker still can perform other sorts of attacks. It is concluded that if one assumes that the threat model within this work is somewhat identical to the physical IV, there is a possibility of exploiting vulnerabilities if not all defenses are enabled for all components. These results are sought to increase the relevancy of the cybersecurity aspects within the vehicle industry, especially on infotainment systems. / Dagens bilutveckling går snabbt framåt och nya bilmodeller produceras ständigt. Dessa nya fordon är anpassade till dagens digitala samhälle och alla dess behov. En viktig fråga är hur väl säkerheten är involverad i denna tekniska utveckling. Med alla dessa framgångar finns det också möjliga sårbarheter. Därför är cybersäkerhetsaspekten en viktig del i utvecklingen av moderna fordon på grund av möjliga utnyttjanden som har skett och kan ske i framtiden. Huvudproblemet som undersöktes inom ramen för denna avhandling var att undersöka säkerheten hos Volvos infotainmentsystem. För att analysera ett så komplext system skapades en hotmodell genom att samla in nödvändig data, inspektera en fysisk rigg som skickats av tillverkaren och få feedback från branschexperter. Dessutom utfördes flera attacksimuleringar på hotmodellen, vilket genererade flera attackvägar och probabilistiska grafer som analyserades. Detta arbete resulterade i en hotmodell som representerade det fysiska infotainmentsystemet. Modellen innehöll identifieringar av intressanta ingångspunkter från vilka en angripare kan starta olika attacker. Efter undersökning valdes Bluetooth-nätverket och operativsystemet för IHU som ingångspunkter för attacksimuleringarna. De angreppssimuleringar som gjordes på modellen testades i olika scenarier eftersom detta gav ett mer omfattande resultat. Resultaten av angreppssimuleringarna var att i jämförelse med ett scenario med låg säkerhet, minskade högsäkerhetsfallet framgångsfrekvensen för att lyckas med attacken. Om alla tänkbara försvarsmekanismer aktiverades genererades inga angreppsvägar, men resultaten visade att en angripare fortfarande kan utföra andra typer av angrepp. Slutsatsen är att om man antar att hotmodellen inom detta arbete är något identisk med den fysiska infotainmentsystemet, finns det en möjlighet att utnyttja sårbarheter om inte alla försvar är aktiverade för alla komponenter. Dessa resultat syftar till att öka relevansen av cybersäkerhetsaspekterna inom fordonsindustrin, särskilt när det gäller infotainmentsystem.

[pt] A ocorrência de dois acidentes de proporções inaceitáveis no Brasil, num período de 4 anos, resultou em problemas de confiança nos projetos e na operação de barragens de rejeitos, em especial as construídas pelo método de montante. Esse trabalho tem o objetivo de auxiliar no entendimento dos riscos de barragens de rejeitos, propondo uma metodologia para estimativa desses riscos e indicação de valores para limites de aceitabilidade e tolerabilidade. A metodologia proposta foi aplicada em duas barragens que romperam recentemente, Barragem de Fundão (Mariana/MG) e Barragem de Feijão (Brumadinho/MG), e uma barragem existente, a Barragem do Germano. A aplicação do método probabilístico FOSM em conjunto com a análise de equilíbrio limite por Spencer foi sugerida para estimar a probabilidade de ruptura por liquefação. Adicionalmente, a probabilidade de ocorrência dos gatilhos foi estimada de acordo com as características e operação da barragem. Nos casos estudados nesse trabalho, as probabilidades de ruptura determinadas pela metodologia desenvolvida são iguais a 36 por cento no caso de Fundão, 47 por cento no caso de Feijão e 3 por cento no caso de Germano. Os resultados mostraram que o risco associado às barragens que romperam era incompatível com qualquer obra de engenharia e muito acima dos limites normativos considerando as consequências da ruptura. / [en] Two accidents in tailings dams occurred in the last few years in Brazil and they resulted in the lack of trust in their design and performance. The aim of this work is to provide a better understanding of the risks on existing tailings dams, presenting a methodology for risk estimate and recommendation of values for acceptability and tolerability limits. The combination of the Spencer’s limit equilibrium method and the first-order second-moment (FOSM) probabilistic method (Christian et al., 1992) were chosen to be applied in the Fundão Dam (collapsed in 2015 in Mariana/MG), Feijão Dam (collapsed in 2019 in Brumadinho/MG), and Germano Dam. There is also a methodology suggested for trigger probability evaluation according to the dam s characteristics and operation. The probabilities of rupture through liquefaction during the time of the accidents are 36 per cent in case of Fundão Dam, 47 per cent in case of Feijão Dam and 3 per cent in case of Germano Dam. The results shows that the risk associated with the collapsed structures was much higher than the tolerable level of the standards.

Yes / Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a well-established and well-understood technique, widely used for dependability evaluation of a wide range of systems. Although many extensions of fault trees have been proposed, they suffer from a variety of shortcomings. In particular, even where software tool support exists, these analyses require a lot of manual effort. Over the past two decades, research has focused on simplifying dependability analysis by looking at how we can synthesise dependability information from system models automatically. This has led to the field of model-based dependability analysis (MBDA). Different tools and techniques have been developed as part of MBDA to automate the generation of dependability analysis artefacts such as fault trees. Firstly, this paper reviews the standard fault tree with its limitations. Secondly, different extensions of standard fault trees are reviewed. Thirdly, this paper reviews a number of prominent MBDA techniques where fault trees are used as a means for system dependability analysis and provides an insight into their working mechanism, applicability, strengths and challenges. Finally, the future outlook for MBDA is outlined, which includes the prospect of developing expert and intelligent systems for dependability analysis of complex open systems under the conditions of uncertainty.

Bibliography / Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research paper offers an analysis of new terrorism as a concept for analysis in Political Risk. In order to assess the novelty and value of new terrorism it is juxtaposed with old terrorism. This analysis uses a historical comparative method in which three terrorist groups, within two distinct historical periods, are discussed and compared. The first historical period is 1945-2000 and assesses old terrorism through a descriptive assessment of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah. The second historical period, 2001-2009, provides a descriptive assessment of al-Qaeda. The primary variables for analysis with regards to the terrorist groups selected herein are goals, targets and tactics. Also discussed is the secondary variable structure. A number of key findings indicate that there are more similarities than there are differences between old and new terrorism. The novelty and value of new terrorism is thus limited as a concept for analysis within Political Risk Analysis. The conclusion of this research paper establishes that for a normative conceptualisation of terrorism to exist, and have value, it must consider both old and new terrorism. This normative understanding of terrorism better serves the purpose of mitigation within the sphere of Political Risk Analysis. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie bied .n ontleding van nuwe terrorisme as .n begrip vir ontleding in Politieke Risiko. Ten einde die nuutheid en waarde van nuwe terrorisme te evalueer, word dit naas ou terrorisme gestel. Hierdie ontleding gebruik .n histories-vergelykende metode waarin drie terroristegroepe, in twee afsonderlike historiese tydperke, bespreek en vergelyk word. Die eerste historiese tydperk strek van 1945.2000 en evalueer ou terrorisme met behulp van .n beskrywende evaluering van die Moslem Broederskap en Hezbollah. Die tweede historiese tydperk, 2001.2009, bied .n beskrywende evaluering van al-Qaeda. Die primere veranderlikes vir ontleding met betrekking tot die terroristegroepe wat hierin aangewys is, is doelstellings, teikens en taktiek. Verder word die sekondere veranderlike struktuur bespreek. .n Aantal belangrike bevindinge dui daarop dat daar meer ooreenkomste as verskille tussen ou en nuwe terrorisme bestaan. Die nuutheid en waarde van nuwe terrorisme het dus beperkinge vir ontleding as .n begrip in Politieke Risiko-ontleding. Die gevolgtrekking van hierdie studie dui dus daarop dat, vir .n normatiewe konseptualisering van terrorisme om te bestaan, en ook waarde te he, dit beide ou en nuwe terrorisme in berekening moet bring. Hierdie normatiewe begrip van terrorisme dien die doel van tempering binne die sfeer van Politieke Risiko-ontleding beter.

Transport infrastructure investment decision making is typically based on a range of inputs such as social, environmental and economic factors. The benefit cost ratio (BCR), a measure of economic efficiency (“value for money”) determined through cost benefit analysis (CBA), is dependent on accurate estimates of the various option costs and net social benefits such as reductions in travel time, accidents, and vehicle operating costs. However, most evaluations are deterministic procedures using point estimates for the inputs and producing point estimates for the outputs. Transport planners have primarily focused on the cost risks and treat risk through sensitivity testing. Probabilistic risk analysis techniques are available which could provide more information about the statistical confidence of the economic evaluation outputs. This research project report investigated how risk and uncertainty are dealt with in the literature and guidelines. The treatment of uncertainty in the Nelson Arterial Traffic Study (ATS) was reviewed and an opportunity to apply risk analysis to develop probabilities of sea level rise impacting on the coastal road options was identified. A simplified transport model and economic evaluation case study based on the ATS was developed in Excel to enable the application of @RISK Monte Carlo simulation software. The simplifications mean that the results are not comparable with the ATS. Seven input variables and their likely distributions were defined for simulation based on the literature review. The simulation of seven variables, five worksheets, and 10,000 iterations takes about 30 seconds of computation time. The input variables in rank order of influence on the BCR were capital cost, car mode share, unit vehicle operating cost, basic employment forecast growth rate, and unit value of time cost. The deterministically derived BCR of 0.75 is associated with a 50% chance that the BCR will be less than 0.6, although this probability is partly based on some statistical parameters without an empirical basis. In practice, probability distribution fitting to appropriate datasets should be undertaken to better support probabilistic risk analysis conclusions. Probabilities for different confidence levels can be reported to suit the risk tolerance of the decision makers. It was determined that the risk analysis approach is feasible and can produce useful outputs, given a clear understanding of the data inputs and their associated distributions.