La maîtrise des risques d'incendie et d'explosion dans les procédés industriels repose sur une évaluation des conditions d'occurrence et des conséquences prévisibles de ces évènements. L'étude du retour d'expérience relatif aux accidents industriels impliquant des produits combustibles met souvent en évidence la méconnaissance des dangers des produits par les opérateurs et/ou une évaluation insuffisante ou incomplète des risques générés par le procédé exploité. Les évolutions réglementaires intervenues ces dix dernières années ont pour objectif de mieux identifier et gérer ces risques. Pour autant, afin de réduire la fréquence et la gravité de ces accidents, il est nécessaire d'améliorer encore la sécurité des procédés qui mettent en oeuvre des produits combustibles. C'est lorsque cette évaluation est la plus juste et réaliste que les mesures de prévention et de protection sont adaptées. Ceci nécessite avant tout de caractériser les dangers présentés par les produits stockés, transportés ou utilisés. Il est ensuite nécessaire de mieux identifier et gérer les risques induits. Les travaux effectués ont été consacrés en premier lieu à la caractérisation réglementaire des dangers physico-chimiques des substances et des mélanges, ainsi qu'à l'évaluation de l'aptitude des produits inflammables sous forme de gaz, de vapeur ou de poussière à générer des atmosphères explosives et à être enflammés. En second lieu, ces travaux se sont attachés à mettre en évidence les éléments essentiels du contexte réglementaire, normatif et méthodologique sur les thèmes des atmosphères explosives et de l'évaluation des risques associés et à développer une méthode d'étude du risque associé à la formation d'atmosphères explosives dans les installations industrielles compatible avec les exigences réglementaires applicables / Controlling fire and explosion hazards in industrial processes is based on occurrence conditions and the assessment of possible effects and consequences of these events. The feedback from industrial accidents involving combustible products often reveals an insufficient identification of products hazards and/or an incorrect or incomplete risk assessment of the processes by the operators. The regulatory evolutions in the past decade were aimed at better identification and management of these risks. Nevertheless, in order to reduce the frequency and the severity of these accidents, it is necessary to further improve the safety procedures concerning combustible materials. When this evaluation is the most accurate and realistic, prevention and protection measures are the most adequate. This requires an accurate hazard characterization of the products stored, transported or used. It is also necessary to better identify and manage the risks associated. This work has been devoted primarily to the regulatory characterization of physical and chemical hazards of substances and mixtures, as well as evaluating the ability of flammable gas, vapour or dust to form explosive atmospheres and an eventual ignition. Secondly, this work have attempted to highlight the key elements of the regulatory, normative and methodological context concerning explosive atmospheres and to develop a specific methodology allowing explosive atmospheres explosion risk assessment in industrial facilities, consistent with applicable regulatory requirements

Due to great effort from mathematicians, physicists and computer scientists, network science has attained rapid development during the past decades. However, because of the complexity, most researches in this area are conducted only based upon experiments and simulations, it is critical to do research based on theoretical results so as to gain more insight on how the structure of a network affects the security. This dissertation introduces some stochastic and statistical models on certain networks and uses a k-out-of-n tolerant structure to characterize both logically and physically the behavior of nodes. Based upon these models, we draw several illuminating results in the following two aspects, which are consistent with what computer scientists have observed in either practical situations or experimental studies. Suppose that the node in a P2P network loses the designed function or service when some of its neighbors are disconnected. By studying the isolation probability and the durable time of a single user, we prove that the network with the user's lifetime having more NWUE-ness is more resilient in the sense of having a smaller probability to be isolated by neighbors and longer time to be online without being interrupted. Meanwhile, some preservation properties are also studied for the durable time of a network. Additionally, in order to apply the model in practice, both graphical and nonparametric statistical methods are developed and are employed to a real data set. On the other hand, a stochastic model is introduced to investigate the security of network systems based on their vulnerability graph abstractions. A node loses its designed function when certain number of its neighbors are compromised in the sense of being taken over by the malicious codes or the hacker. The attack compromises some nodes, and the victimized nodes become accomplices. We derived an equation to solve the probability for a node to be compromised in a network. Since this equation has no explicit solution, we also established new lower and upper bounds for the probability. The two models proposed herewith generalize existing models in the literature, the corresponding theoretical results effectively improve those known results and hence carry an insight on designing a more secure system and enhancing the security of an existing system.

This master's thesis focuses on the knowledge of risk management. The core of this issue contains risk management process, risk identification, monitoring and risk analysis. The text in the first part explains stages of identifying the risks and the methodology used. The aim was to create, after a thorough analysis, the detailed design, then proceed to implementing individual parts of the system and to create a functional system for the support of identification of risks in IT projects. The system was implemented in PHP programming language, working with the MySQL database system on the database level. In the end there is an assessment and discussion of possible expansion.

Avec le développement des mesures de pluie à hautes résolutions spatiales et temporelles , l’utilisation de modèles hydrométéorologiques distribués est désormais envisagée pour anticiper les phénomènes de crue soudaine sur les petits bassins versants non jaugés. Toutefois les approches développées jusqu’ici se sont généralement concentrées sur l’évaluation des phénomènes hydrologiques, laissant de côté la question de leurs impacts, qui dépendent fortement de la configuration du terrain et des enjeux qui y sont présents. Ce travail de thèse a permis de développer et tester une méthode d’évaluation directe de ces impacts à partir des sorties d’un modèle pluie-débit sur un territoire limité. La démarche mise en oeuvre repose sur un travail préalable d’analyse du territoire permettant d’une part d’évaluer les emprises submergées dans une large gamme de débits par une approche hydraulique simplifiée, puis de construire des relations univoques débit-enjeux pour chaque bief de cours d’eau. Ces relations permettent de produire des cartes d‘enjeux potentiellement touchés ,pouvant être actualisées régulièrement en cours d’événement. Deux études des cas ont permis de réaliser une première évaluation des performances de cette approche, du point de vue de la qualité d’estimation des emprises inondées, et du point de vue des impacts estimés à l’échelle d’un événement grâce à la comparaison avec des données d’assurance. Finalement, ces travaux ont permis de confirmer le potentiel de la méthode, dont les performances semblent en adéquation avec l’objectif visé : obtenir rapidement une première hiérarchisation des impacts occasionnés par les crues soudaines à l’échelle d’un grand territoire. / With the development of rainfall measurements at highspatial and temporal resolutions, the use of distributed hydrometeorological models is now considered to forecast flash floods on small and ungauged catchment areas. Current flashflood monitoring systems generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-flood magnitudes. However they do not assess the potential impacts of flash-flood, which highly depends on the catchment areas configuration and on the importance of potentially affected assets. The purpose of this PhD research work was to develop and test a method which can be used to directly estimate the impacts of flash-floods, based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-run off model. The approach is based on a prior analysis of the study area in order to assess the potential impact of different discharge levels on the flooded areas and to identify from geography database the associated buildings at risk. The aim is to build impact models on specific river reaches, using discharge versus impact graphs. The use of these impact models combined with a rainfall-run off model, has enabled us to compute maps of potential impacts, based on real time assessment of flood events updated every 15 minutes. This method was evaluated on two case studies looking at the accuracy and relevance of estimated impacts for each event – and comparing the outcomes to insurance losses data. This research work has helped to confirm the efficiency of this new combined method, which may become a useful tool to forecast large-scale effects of local impacts of flash-floods.

En vue d’éviter ou de diminuer l’importance des dégâts causés par les accidents majeurs, il convient de modéliser les fonctions et les relations entre les composants d’un système industriel. Pour cela, dans cette thèse, on utilise la démarche de modélisation par la méthode STAMP (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) pour représenter la structure hiéarchique du système, ainsi que les mécanismes de contrôle nécessaire pour préserver la sécurité d’un processus industriel. Afin de traiter les problématiques liées aux contrôles de la sécurité industrielle, on propose l’utilisation de l’outil de simulation Anylogic. Cet outil, permet modéliser et de simuler le comportement du système en fonction du temps en mode normal et en mode dégradé.L’objectif de ces travaux est donc de proposer une démarche basée à la fois sur la modélisation et la simulation pour analyser les risques et prévenir les accidents d’un site de stockage et distribution de GPL (Gaz Pétrole liquéfié). / System thinking concepts and simulation tools are used to model the risk prevention plan and operational modes designed to enforce safety constraints at a French liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage and distribution facility. In France, such facilities are classified and the subject of special legislation and safety regulations. Their supervision is the responsibility of a control and regulatory body. A technological risk and prevention plan is provided, where all the dangerous phenomena likely to occur in addition to the safety control measures are listed in the safety report. Safety is therefore addressed through rules, and control mechanisms ensure that the system complies with safety constraints. Taking this facility as a case study, we use the STAMP theoretical framework together with AnyLogic simulation software to model technical elements and human and organizational behavior. We simulate how the system evolves over time and the strategies that are deployed in a loss of control scenario. The aim is to assess whether the prescribed safety program covers all of the system's phases; namely operations and audits. The results enrich other research that focuses on the contribution of system dynamics to risk analysis and accident prevention.

[pt] Atualmente, um dos principais requisitos de um projeto de desenvolvimento de software é a entrega de um produto de qualidade que obedeça ao prazo e orçamento estipulados e atenda às necessidades do cliente. Utilizando a premissa de que a qualidade do produto desenvolvido está intimamente relacionada à qualidade dos processos utilizados no seu desenvolvimento, muitas organizações investem em programas de melhoria contínua de processos, onde estes processos são constantemente avaliados e melhorados. Este trabalho propõe uma abordagem para a avaliação de processos baseada em análise do risco e da conformidade em processos de desenvolvimento. Esta abordagem é constituída por um método de avaliação em duas etapas e por uma ferramenta de apoio. Na primeira fase do método, uma avaliação em abrangência é realizada para identificar em que áreas se encontram os maiores problemas nos processos. Na segunda fase, uma avaliação mais elaborada e criteriosa é realizada apenas nas áreas críticas, diminuindo o custo e aumentando a eficiência do investimento em melhoria. A ferramenta utiliza um mecanismo de questionários e checklists para verificar o risco e a conformidade dos processos da organização. Estes questionários e checklists estão associados a uma base de conhecimento organizada segundo um modelo de maturidade ou norma de qualidade de referência. Ao final de uma avaliação são gerados relatórios, tabelas e gráficos que apóiam a tomada de decisão e orientam a elaboração de um plano de ação para a melhoria dos processos. A abordagem foi utilizada em três experimentos controlados. / [en] Nowadays, one of the main requirements of a software development project is the delivery of a quality product that conforms to the expected schedule and budget and satisfies customer needs. Using the hypothesis that the quality of the developed product is closely related to the quality of the processes used in its development, many organizations invest in process improvement programs, where the processes are continuously assessed and improved. In this work we propose an approach for process assessment based on risk and process compliance analysis. This approach is composed of a two-step appraisal method and a supporting tool. In the first step of the method, a quick analysis is executed to identify the most problematic areas. In the second one, a more elaborated analysis is performed only in the critical areas, reducing the costs and increasing the effectiveness of the appraisal. The tool uses a mechanism of surveys and checklists to verify the risk and the compliance of the process of the organization. A knowledge base is organized in accordance to a reference quality norm or maturity model. At the end of an assessment, reports, tables and charts support the decision-taking, and they can be used to guide an improvement program. The approach has been used in three case studies.

A implementação de programas de qualidade na linha de produção tem sido utilizada por empresas para garantir a competitividade em um mercado cada dia mais competitivo. A busca por equilíbrio entre qualidade e custos é uma constante na área industrial e, neste contexto, melhorias no processo produtivo são fundamentais. No setor florestal, responsável por 3,5% do PIB do país em 2007, a gestão da qualidade aplicada à linha de produção é recente e muitos aspectos importantes não são considerados. O objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar e avaliar os pontos críticos do processo de produção de uma empresa de processamento da madeira. Para tanto, a pesquisa foi dividida em três etapas. A primeira foi o mapeamento do processo da empresa e a elaboração de fluxogramas para as atividades. A segunda fase foi a identificação e avaliação dos pontos críticos por entrevistas com funcionários, utilizando metodologia FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) e diagramas de Ishikawa, que relaciona as falhas com suas possíveis causas. A terceira fase foi a avaliação do processo produtivo, empregando o controle estatístico do processo nos principais pontos críticos e a determinação da capacidade do processo pelo índice Cpk. Os resultados mostraram a existência de 6 sub-processos, sendo dois críticos. Nesses setores foram identificados 15 pontos críticos, com cinco deles selecionados para serem avaliados. Os gráficos de controle para variáveis indicaram que o processo produtivo da empresa é instável quanto ao item peças fora de dimensão em ambos setores, enquanto o índice Cpk permitiu concluir que a empresa não é capaz de produzir pisos de madeira dentro das especificações. Para os atributos, o processo era estável, exceto para peças marcadas pela lixa. A causa de não conformidades mais significativa foi a aferição dos equipamentos de medição, que resultou em processos com baixa variação, porém com médias distantes das especificações. / The implementation of quality programs in line production has been used by companies to guarantee the competitiveness in a market more competitive every day. The search for balance between quality and costs is a constant in industrial area and, in this context, improvements in the productive process are fundamentals. In the forest sector, responsible for 3,5% of the countrys GDP in 2007, the quality management applied to the line production is recent and many important aspects are not considered. This study aimed to identify and evaluate the critical points of the process of production of a company of wood processing. Therefore, the research was divided in three stages. The first one was the process mapping of the company and the elaboration of flowcharts for the activities. The second phase was identify and evaluate the critical points for interviews with employees, using FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) methodology and Ishikawas diagram, which relates the failure with their possible causes. The third phase was the evaluation of the productive process, applying statistical process control in the main critical points and the determination of the process capability for the Cpk index. The results showed the existence of 6 processes, two of them critical. In those sectors 15 critical points were indentified and 5 were selected for evaluation. The control charts for variables indicated that the process is unstable for the item pieces out of dimension in both processes, while the Cpk index allowed to conclude that the company is not capable to produce wood flooring according to the specifications. For the attributes, the process was stable, except for pieces marked by the sandpaper. The more significant cause of non-conformities was the gauging of the measurement equipments, that resulted in processes with low variation, however with means far from the specifications.

A demanda pelo aumento do volume de tráfego aéreo tem pressionado as autoridades da aviação a adensar o espaço aéreo global, por meio de redução na separação entre aeronaves, permitindo operações mais eficientes no Gerenciamento de Tráfego Aéreo (ATM). No entanto, questões relacionadas com a segurança das operações de tráfego aéreo surgem quando se considera a possibilidade de reduzir a separação de aeronaves. Objetivamente, para maior eficiência e redução da separação, sem que isso afete significativamente a segurança, a posição vigiada das aeronaves deve aparecer de forma não só mais exata e precisa para o controlador de tráfego aéreo (ATCo), como deve ser mais fiável, o que envolve a integridades dessa informação. Essa pesquisa propõe avaliar os impactos que esses parâmetros têm nos níveis de segurança crítica (safety) no sistema de controle de tráfego aéreo (ATC) inserido no novo conceito de ATM Global (CNS/ATM). Para isso, foi realizada uma análise dos dados de erro de posicionamento do Sistema de Navegação Global por Satélites (GNSS) visando estabelecer seu comportamento. Esse comportamento é utilizado para modelar um sistema de controle de tráfego completo para fins de simulação e, adotando-se a metodologia de análise de segurança desenvolvida por Vismari (2007), avaliar os efeitos que esses novos parâmetros exercem sobre os níveis de segurança encontrados na pesquisa desenvolvida por Vismari (2007) para ambientes de tráfego aéreo baseados na Vigilância Dependente Automática por Radiodifusão (ADS-B). São comparados diversos cenários em que houve a degradação do comportamento do sistema GNSS. Para cada cenário estudado verificou-se que a degradação do comportamento não foi suficiente para gerar eventos de risco relacionados à integridade dos dados posicionais das aeronaves. Assim, dentro das condições simuladas, o sistema manteve os níveis de segurança crítica no que se refere à integridade do posicionamento das aeronaves apresentadas na tela do controlador de tráfego aéreo em operações de resolução de conflito. O modelo computacional desenvolvido possui diversas características que, apesar de não serem totalmente utilizadas na presente pesquisa, constituem um legado para pesquisas futuras e para a integração com a Plataforma Integrada para Ensaios de Sistemas Embarcados Críticos (PIpE-SEC) desenvolvida dentro do Grupo de Análise de Segurança (GAS) da EPUSP. / The demand for increasing air traffic volume has pressed aviation authorities to densify the global airspace through separation reduction between aircraft, allowing operations that are more efficient in the Air Traffic Management (ATM). However, issues related to the safety of air traffic operations arise when considering the possibility of reducing the separation of aircraft. Objectively, for greater efficiency and separation reduction, without significantly affecting safety, surveillance positions of the aircraft must appear not only more accurate and precise to the air traffic controller (ATCo), it should be more trustworthy, which concerns the integrity of that information. This research proposes to assess the impacts of these parameters on the safety levels of air traffic control system (ATC) inserted in the new concept of Global ATM (CNS/ATM). To achieve it, an analysis of the data related to error in positioning of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) was made to establish its behavior. This behavior analysis is used to model a complete traffic control system for simulation purposes and, adopting the safety analysis methodology developed by Vismari (2007), evaluate the effects that these new parameters had on the safety levels found in the research developed by Vismari (2007) for air traffic environments based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B). They are compared to various scenarios in which there was a GNSS system performance degradation. For each studied scenario, it was found that GNSS behavior\'s degradation was not sufficient to create risk events in aspects related to integrity of the aircraft position data. Thus, within the simulated conditions, the system kept the safety levels regarding to the integrity of the aircraft position informed on screen to the air traffic controller in conflict resolution operations. The computational model developed has several features, which, although not totally applied in this research, constitute a legacy for future research and for integration with the Integrated Platform for Testing Critical Embedded Systems (PIpE-SEC) developed within the Safety Analysis Group (GAS) of EPUSP.

A intensa competição no mercado global e as constantes mudanças nas exigências dos clientes têm feito com que muitas empresas repensem seus processos de negócios não somente para sobreviver, mas também para se manterem competitivas no mercado atual. O processo de desenvolvimento de produtos é um fator importante para qualquer empresa se manter competitiva neste cenário. A falta de um bom processo de desenvolvimento de produtos é sem dúvida uma grande desvantagem para uma empresa. Somente um bom processo de desenvolvimento não garante a vantagem competitiva das empresas, é necessário também que seus produtos sejam confiáveis e para que isto aconteça torna-se essencial desenvolver produtos com qualidade, através do uso disciplinado e constante de ferramentas de qualidade. Para ser competitivo um produto precisa ser desenvolvido com o mínimo de tempo, recursos e custo, para atender às necessidades de mercado. Algumas metodologias foram desenvolvidas e estas focam no desenvolvimento de um produto sempre pensando nas necessidades da manufatura, montagem, qualidade, confiabilidade e ciclo de vida do produto, evitando mudanças tardias no produto. Muitos estudos acadêmicos e industriais têm sido propostos nesta área. Cada empresa deve encontrar e se adaptar ao processo ou modelo mais adequado para ela dentro das suas necessidades técnicas e culturais. Este estudo apresenta uma metodologia a ser usada para melhorar a qualidade do produto e deve ser usada quando da fase conceitual onde se escolhem os melhores sistemas e/ou componentes para formar um novo produto final. / The intense competition in global market along with constant changes in customers demands have forced companies to re-think some of their business processes, not only to survive, but also to stay competitive on this market. The product development process is one of the key business processes for any company to stay competitive and global on this scenario. The lack of a good development process is with no doubt a big disadvantage for any company. Only a good development process does not guarantee a competitive advantage for anyone, it becomes necessary to have reliable products in the field and to make this happens it is vital to develop products with quality through the use of quality tools in a constant and disciplined way. To be competitive, a product needs to be designed in a minimum amount of time, with minimum resources and cost. To meet market needs some methodologies were developed thinking on manufacturing, assembly, quality, reliability and life cycle avoiding late product changes. Many studies academic and industrial have been proposed in this area. Each company has to find and adapt the most appropriate model that fits its technical and cultural needs. This research presents a methodology to be used to improve product quality during the early phases of development when systems and/or components are chosen for a new product.

O objetivo deste estudo foi o de apresentar uma nova tecnologia de software especialista, denominada Inteligência Práxis (IP), para a gestão da análise do conteúdo de textos de dissertações, relatórios e indicadores da produção. Este software demonstra através de gráficos lineares e da nuvem de palavras, o foco do texto em análise. Ele também permite a visualização do conteúdo, a partir das palavras contidas no texto e transportadas para um dicionário de dados criado pelas evidências relacionadas, organizando e apresentando para análise do pesquisador o conteúdo proposto como base do conhecimento (Corpus). O software foi implementado em linguagem de programação Delphi, Versão 7 e para armazenamento de dados foi utilizado o banco de dados Absolute Database. A metodologia utilizada para a análise dos dados foi a Metodologia Delphi e a Lógica Fuzzy. Esta tecnologia traz uma inovação na análise do conteúdo dos textos consultados, demonstrando a imagem consolidada do foco do corpus, a partir do dicionário de evidências contidas e pontualmente relacionadas. O mapeamento produzido e a interpretação dos diversos indicadores conduzem a um maior grau de acerto na análise do conteúdo contido no documento, inferindo um melhor entendimento das diversas demandas envolvidas, desveladas pela análise, na expectativa do melhor resultado possível. Assim, pode-se concluir, que a ferramenta desenvolvida atendeu aos objetivos propostos com eficiência e agilidade. / The objective of this study was to present a new specialized software technology, called Intelligence Práxis (IP), for the management of content analysis of dissertations, reports and production indicators. This software demonstrates through linear graphs and the word cloud, the focus of the text under analysis. It also allows the visualization of the content, from the words contained in the text and transported to a data dictionary created by the related evidences, organizing and presenting to the researcher the proposed content as the basis of knowledge (Corpus). The software was implemented in Delphi programming language version 7 and for data storage the Absolute Database was used. The methodology used for the data analysis was the Delphi Methodology and the Fuzzy Logic. This technology brings an innovation in the analysis of the content of the texts consulted, demonstrating the consolidated image of the corpus focus, from the dictionary of contained and punctually related evidences. The mapping produced and the interpretation of the various indicators lead to a greater degree of accuracy in the analysis of the content contained in the document, inferring a better understanding of the diverse demands involved, revealed by the analysis, in the expectation of the best possible result. Thus, it can be concluded that the tool developed met the proposed objectives with efficiency and agility.