Decisions to deploy IT systems on public Infrastructure-as-a-Service clouds can be complicated as evaluating the benefits, risks and costs of using such clouds is not straightforward. The aim of this project was to investigate the challenges that enterprises face when making system deployment decisions in public clouds, and to develop vendor-neutral tools to inform decision makers during this process. Three tools were developed to support decision makers: 1. Cloud Suitability Checklist: a simple list of questions to provide a rapid assessment of the suitability of public IaaS clouds for a specific IT system. 2. Benefits and Risks Assessment tool: a spreadsheet that includes the general benefits and risks of using public clouds; this provides a starting point for risk assessment and helps organisations start discussions about cloud adoption. 3. Elastic Cost Modelling: a tool that enables decision makers to model their system deployment options in public clouds and forecast their costs. These three tools collectively enable decision makers to investigate the benefits, risks and costs of using public clouds, and effectively support them in making system deployment decisions. Data was collected from five case studies and hundreds of users to evaluate the effectiveness of the tools. This data showed that the cost effectiveness of using public clouds is situation dependent rather than universally less expensive than traditional forms of IT provisioning. Running systems on the cloud using a traditional 'always on' approach can be less cost effective than on-premise servers, and the elastic nature of the cloud has to be considered if costs are to be reduced. Decision makers have to model the variations in resource usage and their systems' deployment options to obtain accurate cost estimates. Performing upfront cost modelling is beneficial as there can be significant cost differences between different cloud providers, and different deployment options within a single cloud. During such modelling exercises, the variations in a system's load (over time) must be taken into account to produce more accurate cost estimates, and the notion of elasticity patterns that is presented in this thesis provides one simple way to do this.

Currently several disparate and incomplete approaches are being used to analyse and make decisions on the complex methodology of carbon capture and storage (CCS). A literature review revealed that, as CCS is a new and complex technology, there is no agreed-upon thorough assessment method for high-level CCS decisions. Therefore, a risk model addressing these weaknesses was created for assessing complex CCS decisions using a multi-criteria decision analysis approach (MCDA). The model is aimed at transparently and comprehensively assessing a wide variety of heterogeneous CCS criteria to provide insights into and to aid decision makers in making CCS-specific decisions. The risk model includes a variety of tools to assess heterogeneous CCS criteria from the environmental, social, economic and engineering fields. The model uses decision trees, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in combination with utility curves and decision makers’ weights to assess decisions based on data and situational uncertainties. Elements in the model have been used elsewhere but are combined here in a novel way to address CCS decisions. Three case studies were developed to run the model in scenarios using expert opinion, project-specific data, literature reviews, and engineering reports from Alberta, Saskatchewan and Europe. In collaboration with Alberta Innovates Technology Futures, a pilot study was conducted with CCS experts in Alberta to assess how they would rank the importance of CCS criteria to a project selection decision. The MCDA model was run using experts’ criteria weights to determine how CCS projects were ranked by different experts. The model was well received by the CCS experts who believed that it could be adapted and commercialized to meet many CCS decision problems. The survey revealed a wide range in experts’ understanding of CCS criteria. Experts also placed more emphasis on criteria from within their field of expertise, although economic criteria dominated weights overall. The results highlight the benefit of a model that clearly demonstrates the trade-offs between projects under uncertain conditions. The survey results also revealed how simple decision analyses can be improved by including more transparent methods, interdisciplinary criteria and sensitivity analysis to produce more comprehensive assessments.

No description available.

This thesis recounts the experimental study of the dynamic response of polycarbonate blast resistant glazing systems to explosive loading through the use of triaxial load cells, pressure sensors, and a laser displacement gauge. This instrumentation captured the response of the glazing systems to blast loading over three phases of testing. The first phase of testing characterizes the load distribution around the perimeter and the second phase examines the repeatability of the results. The final phase of testing pushes the samples to failure. The results are then compared to HazL, a commonly used blast resistant glazing system analysis software tool. The experimental data is also compared to data available characterizing the response of laminated glass.

Die bisherigen Untersuchungen zu den Folgen extremer Hochwasserereignisse beschäftigten sich überwiegend mit den durch hohe Wasserstände und Fließgeschwindigkeiten verursachten direkten und tangiblen Schäden an Gebäuden und Infrastrukturen. Den durch schadstoffhaltiges Hochwasser hervorgerufenen direkten und indirekten sowie in der Regel intangiblen Konsequenzen für Mensch und Umwelt ist - insbesondere im Hinblick auf deren räumliche Verteilung - im Rahmen des Hochwasserrisikomanagements nur geringe Aufmerksamkeit gewidmet worden. Während Hochwasserereignissen können toxische Stoffe - wie beispielsweise Arsen, Blei, Cadmium oder Quecksilber sowie persistente organische Kontaminanten wie DDT oder HCH - aus belasteten Gewässer- und Ufersedimenten sowie Altstandorten und Altablagerungen freigesetzt werden. Diese Stoffe werden von der Hochwasserwelle aufgenommen, zum überwiegenden Teil partikulär gebunden transportiert und bei nachlassender Fließgeschwindigkeit und ablaufendem Hochwasser als Sedimente in den Überflutungsbereichen deponiert. In Abhängigkeit von der Nutzung der überschwemmten Gebiete sind nach einem Hochwasser unterschiedliche Rezeptoren den abgelagerten Sedimenten und darin enthaltenen Schadstoffen in der Regel langfristig ausgesetzt. Mögliche Rezeptoren sind zum Beispiel Menschen, Nutz- und Wildtiere, Futter- und Nahrungspflanzen sowie Böden mit ihren spezifischen Bodenfunktionen. Kern dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung einer räumlich differenzierten Methodik zur integrierten Analyse und Bewertung von stofflichen Hochwasserrisiken. Um deren Anwendbarkeit zu überprüfen, wird die entwickelte Methodik im Rahmen einer Fallstudie an Überflutungsbereichen entlang des Unterlaufes der Vereinigten Mulde zwischen Bitterfeld und Priorau erprobt, wobei der Fokus auf dem Rezeptor Mensch liegt. Die Methodik basiert auf der Integration von Verfahren der Hochwasserrisikoanalyse und der Schadstoffrisikoanalyse. Diese werden unter Verwendung eines angepassten Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence-Konzeptes kombiniert. Die Methodik besteht aus drei größeren Hauptelementen: (1.) der Gefahrenanalyse, (2.) der Expositionsanalyse und (3.) der Schadstoffrisikocharakterisierung und -bewertung. Die Gefahrenanalyse beschreibt die Freisetzung, den Transport und die Ablagerung der Stoffe in Abhängigkeit von der Hochwassercharakteristik, den Substanzeigenschaften sowie den Verteilungsprozessen nach der Ablagerung, beispielsweise dem Transfer vom Boden in die Pflanze. Ergebnisse der Gefahrenanalyse sind Karten der Schadstoffquellen in Form räumlich verteilter Stoffkonzentrationen in Umweltmedien wie Böden und Pflanzen. Die Expositionsanalyse stellt die Verbindung zwischen den Schadstoffquellen und den Rezeptoren her. Bindeglied sind Expositionspfade, beispielsweise die orale Aufnahme von kontaminiertem Boden oder der Verzehr von Pflanzen, die auf belasteten Böden angebaut werden. Teil der Expositionsanalyse ist eine so genannte Rezeptoranalyse, die - aus Landnutzungstypen abgeleitet - Vorkommen bestimmter Rezeptoren identifiziert und diese charakterisiert. Dabei bezieht die Rezeptoranalyse sowohl die räumliche Verteilung der Rezeptoren als auch deren Eigenschaften ein. Für den Rezeptor Mensch sind dies etwa physiologische Parameter wie Körpergewicht oder Atemrate sowie verhaltensbezogene Parameter wie Zeit-Aktivitätsbudgets oder Nahrungsaufnahmeraten. Daran anschließend wird mit der Expositionsanalyse im engeren Sinne die Exposition der Rezeptoren gegenüber bestimmten Stoffen quantifiziert, indem Transfer- und Aufnahmeraten von Expositionsmedien wie Boden, Nahrung oder Luft ermittelt und mit den darin enthaltenen Stoffkonzentrationen in Beziehung gesetzt werden. Ergebnis der Expositionsanalyse sind räumlich explizite Darstellungen der inneren Exposition, d.h. täglich aufgenommener resorbierter Schadstoffmengen. Darauf folgend werden im Zuge der Risikocharakterisierung die Effekte der Exposition mit Hilfe von Dosis-Wirkungsbeziehungen analysiert, die dann in Form von toxikologisch begründeten Referenzwerten als Basis für die finale stoffbezogene Risikobewertung dienen. Diese erfolgt durch Vergleich der inneren Exposition mit toxikologischen Referenzwerten in Form von tolerablen Aufnahmeraten. Die gesundheitlichen Risiken werden durch den Quotienten aus resorbierter Dosis und tolerabler Dosis beschrieben und als stoff- und pfadspezifischer Risikoindex flächenhaft dargestellt. Abschließend erfolgt eine Bewertung der Risiken mittels einer die Unsicherheiten der Referenzwerte berücksichtigenden Bewertungsfunktion. Die Methodik ist in Form eines GIS-basierten Rechenmodells umgesetzt und im Rahmen einer Fallstudie an der Vereinigten Mulde für verschiedene hydraulische Szenarien im Sinne simulierter Abflüsse verschiedener Jährlichkeiten - 100, 200 und 500 Jahre - erprobt worden. Als ausgewählte Ergebnisse liegen räumlich differenzierte Risikobewertungen für die Stoffe Arsen, Cadmium, Quecksilber und Blei unterschieden nach den Expositionsmedien Boden/Hausstaub, Luft sowie pflanzliche Nahrung vor. Exemplarisch seien hier ausgewählte Bewertungsergebnisse in Form des sogenannten Gefahrenwertes für ein HQ500-Szenario dargestellt: Durch die orale Aufnahme von Arsen über Boden/Hausstaub wird für den Rezeptor Kleinkinder räumlich begrenzt die Risikoschwelle überschritten, wobei die Handlungsschwelle nicht erreicht wird. Die Ergebnisse für Cadmium, Quecksilber und Blei liegen deutlich unter der Risikoschwelle. Ein ähnliches Bild zeigt sich für die Aufnahme über die Luft. Hier wird bei lebenslanger Exposition für Arsen die Risikoschwelle überschritten, für die anderen Stoffe werden Gefahrenwerte weit unter der Risikoschwelle ermittelt. Bezogen auf den Verzehr von Nahrungspflanzen aus Eigenanbau zeigen sich bei lebenslanger Exposition für Cadmium großräumig erhebliche Überschreitungen des Handlungsschwellenwertes. Für die anderen Stoffe finden sich nahezu flächendeckend Überschreitungen des Risikoschwellenwertes, die aber nicht an die Maßnahmenschwelle heranreichen. / Research on the consequences of flood events has so far focused on direct tangible damages to buildings and infrastructure caused by high water levels and flow velocities. In the context of flood risk management only little interest has been paid to direct and indirect as well as dominantly intangible consequences caused by flood pollutants to human and ecological receptors - especially taking their spatial distribution into account. During floods toxic substances such as trace elements (e.g. Arsenium, Cadmium, Mercury, Lead, Zinc) and persistent organic pollutants (e.g. HCHs, DDX) can be released from contaminated river bank sediments or former industrial sites. These substances are taken up by the flood water, get transported - mainly bound to fine particles - and get deposited as sediments in the floodplain in case of decreasing flow velocities. Depending on the land use in the floodplain, different receptors can be exposed to the sediments with the associated contaminants. Potential receptors are humans, livestock, wild animals, food and fodder plants as well as soils with their specific soil functions. The core of this thesis is the development of a spatially explicit methodology which enables the integrated analysis and evaluation of substance-based flood risks. To test the applicability, the developed methodology is applied within a case study dealing with floodplains along the lower reaches of the Vereinigte Mulde River situated between Bitterfeld and Priorau (Saxony-Anhalt, Germany). In this case study, the focus is on the receptor man or, more specifically, human health. The methodology is based on an integration of procedures from the fields of flood risk analysis and contaminant risk analysis. These procedures are integrated using an adopted Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence concept. The three main elements of the methodology are hazard analysis, exposure analysis and contaminant risk determination and evaluation. At first, the hazard analysis describes the release, transport and deposition of substances based on flood characteristics and substance properties as well as fate and transfer processes after sedimentation (e.g. soil-to-plant transfer). Results of the hazard analysis are maps of spatially distributed substance concentrations in environmental media such as soils and plants, i.e. the (secondary) contaminant sources. Within the exposure analysis the linkages between the contaminant sources and the receptors are described. Connecting elements are exposure pathways such as the ingestion of contaminated soil or the consumption of food produced on such soils. Part of the exposure analysis is a so-called receptor analysis which indicates and characterises potential human receptors that are derived from land-use types. The receptor analysis takes the receptors\' spatial distribution as well as certain properties into account. Taking the receptor human, these properties are physiological parameters such as body weight or respiration rate and behavioural parameters, e.g. activity budgets or food consumption patterns. Subsequently, with the exposure analysis in a narrower sense, the exposure of the receptors to a certain substance is quantified by calculating transfer and intake rates of exposure media such as soil, food or air taking into account the corresponding substance concentrations in these media. Results of the exposure analysis are spatially explicit representations of absorbed contaminant amounts for a certain receptor, i.e. daily resorbed exposure doses. In the course of the contaminant risk determination, the effects (consequences) of the receptors\' exposure are analysed by dose-response relationships, setting the basis for the final substance-based risk assessment in terms of toxicologically derived reference values. Health risks are expressed as ratio between calculated resorbed dose and tolerable resorbed dose and are presented as maps of substance- and pathway-specific risk indices. In a final step, an evaluation is carried out based on a method that takes the uncertainty of the toxicological reference values into account. The methodology has been implemented in a GIS-based calculation model and was applied within a case study to simulate floods with certain return periods (100, 200, and 500 years). Selected results are spatially differentiated risk evaluations for the substances arsenic, cadmium, mercury and lead distinguished based on the exposure media soil/house dust, air and home-grown vegetable food. Taking the 500-year flood-scenario and the risk evaluation value as an example, the following results have been derived: the oral intake of arsenic via soil/house dust leads to a spatially restricted exceedance of the risk level of the receptor infant, whereas the action level is not reached. The results of cadmium, mercury and lead are clearly below the risk level. A similiar pattern shows for the pulmonary intake via air. Based on lifetime exposure, the risk level for arsenic is exceeded, for all other substances the values are far below the risk level. Considering the intake of cadmium via consumption of home-grown vegetables, the action level is notably exceeded in large areas. The other substances show a nearly general exceedance of the risk level without reaching the action level.

This thesis presents a new modeling framework and application methodology for the study of aircraft structures. The framework provides a ‘cradle-to-grave’ approach to structural analysis of a component, where structural integrity encompasses all phases of its lifespan. The methodology examines the holistic structural design of aircraft components by integrating fatigue and damage tolerance methodologies. It accomplishes this by marrying the load inputs from a fatigue analysis for new design, into a risk analysis for an existing design. The risk analysis incorporates the variability found from literature, including recorded defects, loadings, and material strength properties. The methodology is verified via formal conceptualization of the structures, which are demonstrated on an actual hydraulic accumulator and an engine nacelle inlet. The hydraulic accumulator is examined for structural integrity utilizing different base materials undergoing variable amplitude loading. Integrity is accomplished through a risk analysis by means of fault tree analysis. The engine nacelle inlet uses the damage tolerance philosophy for a sonic fatigue condition undergoing both constant amplitude loading and a theoretical flight design case. Residual strength changes are examined throughout crack growth, where structural integrity is accomplished through a risk analysis of component strength versus probability of failure. Both methodologies can be applied to nearly any structural application, not necessarily limited to aerospace.

För att en maskin ska anses som säker för användning krävs det att den uppfyller maskindirektivet. Maskindirektivet är väldigt generellt och kortfattat. Därför finns det standarder som förklarar mer specifikt maskindirektivets olika delar. Uppfylls inte standarderna så uppfylls inte maskindirektivet för respektive område och därmed är maskinen inte redo för användning. Examensarbetet har utförts på Rapid Granulator AB. Företaget är idag en av världens största producenter av granuleringskvarnar. Granuleringskvarnarna maler ner plastavfall till en mer kompakt form, granulat. Granulatet kan sedan återanvändas i form av formsprutning. Syftet med examensarbetet är att finna ett smidigare verktyg för att dokumentera riskanalyser. Uppdragsgivarens önskemål är att verktyget ska erbjuda användaren en tydligare överblick av riskanalysens ingående delar. Den inmatade informationen i verktyget ska vara lätt att granska och redigera. För att uppnå syftet och på bästa sätt möta uppdragsgivarens behov har följande två frågeställningar tagits fram: Hur utför andra företag sina riskanalyser och vilka verktyg använder de sig av?   Vilket verktyg är bäst anpassat för Rapid Granulator AB och hur är det uppbyggt?   Utifrån en förstudie som har bestått av metoderna: intervjuer och observation, har ett verktyg valts ut. Intervjuerna utfördes tillsammans med fem medelstora företag och observationen skedde hos Rapid Granulator AB. Förstudiefasen följdes sedan upp av en genomförandefas, där metoden litteraturstudier togs till hjälp. Litteraturstudien skapade möjligheten till att få en klarare förståelse av verktyget och dess användning.   Förstudien har resulterat i att författarna fann fyra olika verktyg. Med tanke på behoven och bristerna i nuvarande verktyg föll valet på verktyget Microsoft Access. Utifrån företagets tidigare riskanalyser skapade författarna en databas i Access. I verktyget implementerades sedan funktioner som grundade sig på uppdragsgivarens önskemål. Funktioner så som rullgardinsmeny, färgkodning och modulbasering infördes. Detta resulterade i ett smidigare verktyg, jämfört med det som användes tidigare.                                                                    Slutsatsen är att företaget gynnas mer vid användning av Microsoft Access i fortsättningen. Rekommendationen till företaget är att fortsätta använda sig av Microsoft Access vid kommande riskanalyser och därmed bygga ut databasen ytterligare. / The Machinery Directive gives a general overview of legal safety regulations that machinery must align to. Further specific safety requirements and standards for each individual components or assembly of parts must also be met in order to achieve a low safety risk. This work has been carried out for Rapid Granulator, currently one of the world’s largest producers of granulators. Granulators grind down plastic waste into a compact form of granules that can then be reused in the form of injection moulding. The purpose of this report is to propose a flexible tool for documenting the risk analysis for the granulator machinery, either by building on an existing tool or developing an entirely new one. The priority is to create a database that offers the user a clear view of the risk analysis for each component and allows data to be easily edited. In order to achieve this purpose and fully understand the client's needs, the following two questions have been considered: How do others business perform their risk analysis and what tools do they use? Which tools are best suited for Rapid Granulator AB and how is it structured? A tool has been selected based on a pilot study that consisted of interviews and an observation. The interviews were conducted with five medium-sized enterprises and the observation took place at Rapid Granulator AB. The pre-study phase of the supporting method literature resulted in a clearer understanding of the tool and its use. Authours found four different tools that can be used for documentation of risk analysis. Microsoft Access was selected as the most suitable tool to overcome the deficiencies of the previous tool. The authors have implemented features to meet the client's wishes. Features such as dropdown menu, color-coding and modulation basing are key additions that have resulted in a more flexible tool. The conclusion suggests that the company should exploit this Microsoft Access risk analyses database that has been designed specifically for their machinery and should consider developing the tool further.

In this thesis, quantitative risk assessment study of several oil field transportation lines that belong to a private oil production company located in S. East Turkey has been conducted. In order to achieve this goal, first primary risk drivers were identified. Then relative ranking of all pipeline segments were conducted. Quantitative risk assessment was based on Monte Carlo simulations and a relative scoring index approach. In these simulations frequency of occurrence of pipeline failures for different oil field pipeline systems was used. Consequences of failures were also based on historical data gathered from the same oil fields. Results of corrosion rate calculations in oil and water pipeline systems were also reported. iv Most significant failures are identified as corrosion, third party damage, mechanical failure, operational failure, weather effect and sabotage. It was suggested that in order to reduce corrosion rate, thin metal sheets must be inserted in pipelines. Aluminum sheets (anodes) must be used to reduce corrosion rate in water pipeline system. The required number of anodes was calculated as 266 for BE field water pipeline (the life of anode is 1.28 years), 959 for KA water pipelines system (the life of anode is 3.2 years.) and 992 for KW water pipelines (the life of anode is approximately 2 years). Furthermore high risk pipeline segments for further assessment were identified. As a result of Monte Carlo simulations, the highest risk was observed in return lines followed by flow lines, water lines and trunk lines. The most risky field was field BE for which the risk value in trunk lines were the highest followed by flow lines. Field SA was the second risky region for flow lines and it was followed by KU region. Field KA was forth-risky. Prioritization of maintenance activities was suggested and areas of missing or incomplete data were identified.

Dams are large hydraulic structures constructed to meet various project demands. Their roles in both environment and the economy of a country are so important that their design and construction should be carried out for negligibly small risk. Conventional design approaches are deterministic, which ignore variations of the governing variables. To offset this limitation, high safety factors are considered that increase the cost of the structure. Reliability&ndash / based design approaches are probabilistic in nature since possible sources of uncertainties associated with the variables are identified using statistical information, which are incorporated into the reliability models. Risk analysis with the integration of risk management and risk assessment is a growing trend in dam safety. A computer program, named CADAM, which is based on probabilistic treatment of random loading and resistance terms using Monte&ndash / Carlo simulation technique, can be used for the safety analysis of gravity dams. A case study is conducted to illustrate the use of this program.

This study develops a systems integration project scheduling model which identifies the assignment of activity responsibilities that minimizes expected project implementation cost, considering the project risk. Assignment of resources to the individual jobs comprising the project is a persistent problem in project management. Mostly, skilled labor is an essential resource and both the time and the cost incurred to perform a job depend on the resource to which job is assigned. A systems integration project includes implementation issues in the areas of shipping, installation, and commissioning. Implementation problems lead to project delays, increased costs, and decreased performance, leading to customer dissatisfaction with the systems integrator. Activities can be performed in one of three ways: by the integrator, by the customer, or jointly between the integrator and customer. In this study we select the performer (mode) of each activity comprising the project network while taking into consideration the varying cost, duration and extreme event probability of each activity among different modes-integrator, joint work and customer. Use of the model will permit customers and integrators to mutually agree on an appropriate assignment of responsibilities in the contract. Systems integrators can also use the model to improve their implementation services offerings. An experimental design and a Monte-Carlo simulation study were conducted to see the effects of the parameters of the problem on the selection of modes.