PINTO, Clidia Eduarda Moreira. Biossegurança alimentar da proteína antifúngica Mo-CBP3 de sementes de Moringa oleifera Lam: uma candidata para o desenvolvimento de plantas transgênicas, Fortaleza - CE, 2014. 119 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Bioquímica) - Centro de Ciências, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2014. / Submitted by Eric Santiago (erichhcl@gmail.com) on 2016-05-20T12:05:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_dis_cempinto.pdf: 4842222 bytes, checksum: 4eddade7939a6a0bcab415ce2f86bc31 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Nádja Goes (nmoraissoares@gmail.com) on 2016-05-20T12:37:11Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_dis_cempinto.pdf: 4842222 bytes, checksum: 4eddade7939a6a0bcab415ce2f86bc31 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-20T12:37:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_dis_cempinto.pdf: 4842222 bytes, checksum: 4eddade7939a6a0bcab415ce2f86bc31 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Mo-CBP3 is a chitin binding protein purified from Moringa oleifera seeds which has an apparent molecular mass of 18.0 kDa and consists of multiple heterodimeric isoforms. Mo-CBP3 is a highly stable protein that has a broad spectrum of activity against phytopathogenic fungi and maintains its secondary structure and antifungal activity at extreme temperatures and different pH values. Thus, the Mo-CBP3 protein presents itself as a promising tool for the development of transgenic plants resistant to fungi attack. For such purpose, the Mo-CBP3 protein was subjected to food safety tests to ensure the safety of its expression in plants, minimizing the risk to non-target animals, which include human beings. The food safety assessment of the protein followed the two-tiered approach, based on weight of evidences, proposed by International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI). The research evidenced the long history of safe use, supported by scientific literature, of the M. oleifera species, source of Mo-CBP3 protein. In silico analysis did not reveal any identity of Mo-CBP3 with allergenic, toxic and/or antinutritional proteins. Additionally, were not found in the protein potential epitopes able to lead to cross reaction and unleash an allergic response. Identity with allergenic proteins was found only when a window of 80 amino acids was used. Potential sites of N-glycosylation were not found in the mature protein. The protein showed resistance to thermal treatment and digestibility by simulated gastric fluid, but was completely susceptible to digestion in simulated intestinal fluid. In addition, Mo-CBP3 caused no relevant adverse effects to mice subjected to high oral doses from 5 to 2000 mg/kg, showing its innocuous nature. Based on the food safety approach proposed by ILSI is not expected any risk associated to use of Mo-CBP3 protein for humans and other monogastric animals. / Mo¬-CBP3 é uma proteína ligante à quitina, purificada de sementes de Moringa oleifera, com massa molecular aparente de 18,0 kDa, consistindo de múltiplas isoformas heterodiméricas. Mo-CBP3 é uma proteína altamente estável, que possui amplo espectro de ação contra fungos fitopatogênicos e mantém sua estrutura secundária e atividade antifúngica em extremos de temperaturas e diferentes valores de pH. Dessa forma, a proteína Mo-CBP3 se apresenta como uma ferramenta promissora para o desenvolvimento de plantas transgênicas resistentes ao ataque de fungos. Para tanto, Mo-CBP3 foi submetida a testes de biossegurança alimentar, visando garantir sua utilização através da expressão em plantas, minimizando, assim, os riscos para animais não alvo, incluindo o homem. A avaliação de biossegurança alimentar da proteína seguiu o teste de duas etapas, baseado em pesos de evidência, proposto pelo Instituto Internacional de Ciências da Vida (ILSI). A pesquisa evidenciou o longo histórico de uso seguro, fundamentado em dados científicos, da espécie M. oleifera, fonte da proteína Mo-CBP3. Análises in silico mostraram que Mo-CBP3 não possui qualquer identidade com proteínas alergênicas, tóxicas e/ou antinutricionais. Adicionalmente, não foram encontrados na proteína epítopos potencialmente capazes de promover reação cruzada e desencadear uma resposta alergênica. Identidade com proteínas alergênicas (> 35%) foi encontrada apenas quando uma janela de 80 aminoácidos foi utilizada. Sítios potenciais de N-glicosilação não foram encontrados na proteína madura. A proteína mostrou resistência ao tratamento térmico e à digestibilidade por fluido gástrico simulado, mas foi completamente susceptível à digestão em fluido intestinal simulado. Em adição, Mo-CBP3 não causou efeitos adversos relevantes em camundongos submetidos a doses elevadas de 5 a 2000 mg/kg, via oral, evidenciando seu caráter inócuo. A partir da avaliação de biossegurança alimentar proposta pelo ILSI não é esperado qualquer risco associado ao consumo da proteína Mo-CBP3 pelo homem e demais animais monogástricos.

Acidentes graves em organizações com infraestruturas críticas, como a Usina Hidrelétrica Itaipu Binacional, embora raros, causam importantes impactos sociais e econômicos em sua área de influência. Portanto, eles devem ser evitados mesmo que, seja esperada uma taxa “normal” de acidentes por conta dos fatores de risco e complexidade da sua operação. Essa dissertação apresenta uma investigação das condições que levam a acidentes em casos específicos da operação da Itaipu Binacional sob o enfoque proativo da gestão da Segurança II de acordo com a Engenharia de Resiliência (ER). Ela se baseia na variabilidade da operação normal e, portanto, “no muito que dá certo”, em contraponto à visão tradicional da Segurança I, reativa, baseada na análise retrospectiva de acidentes e “no pouco que dá errado”. Com base em uma revisão da literatura quanto os requisitos, princípios e temas da ER e da Segurança-II e nas opiniões estruturadas de operadores foram desenvolvidos dois estudos: o primeiro traçou preocupações destes operadores em relação ao risco de incêndio em um transformador da Itaipu Binacional para desenvolver indicadores e planos de ação aderentes aos princípios da ER. O objetivo foi suplementar, com elementos de ER, uma análise de risco convencional baseada em árvore de falhas e árvore de eventos, e otimizar o plano de ação de emergência em caso de incêndio em transformador da unidade geradora Os resultados mostraram a oportunidade de melhoria para o desenvolvimento de indicadores proativos para a análise de risco. O segundo estudou, com base no método FRAM, a operação normal e a variabilidade de quatro manobras operacionais típicas selecionadas pelos operadores dentro dos quadrantes da matriz periodicidade-complexidade. Os resultados indicaram que as mesmas variabilidades influenciam nos passos operacionais, não importando a complexidade tampouco a periodicidade da manobra. Um comparativo entre a análise das variabilidades em situação normal e os relatórios das quatro falhas ocorridas entre 2006 e 2015 apontou que o sucesso e a falha advêm da mesma fonte, e que algumas variabilidades como “ambiente de manobra”, a “necessidade de confirmar os passos das manobras” e situações que tiram a atenção do operador atuam de forma decisiva em praticamente todas as manobras. Os resultados foram discutidos com os integrantes da equipe que propuseram adaptações necessárias para aumento da segurança operacional do trabalho normal sob a perspectiva de ER. / Serious accidents in organizations with critical infrastructures, such as the Itaipu Binacional Hydroelectric Power Plant, although rare, cause important social and economic impacts in their area of influence. Therefore, they must be avoided even if a "normal" rate of accidents is expected because of the risk factors and complexity of the operation. This dissertation presents an investigation on the conditions that lead to accidents in the operation of Itaipu Binacional under the proactive approach of Security II management according to Resilience Engineering (RE). It is based on the variability of the normal operation and, therefore, "in the many things that goes right", in contrast to the traditional and reactive view of Safety-I, based on the retrospective analysis of accidents and "the few things that went wrong". After a review of the literature on the requirements, principles and themes of RE and Security-II and on the structured opinions of the operational staff, two studies were developed: the first one brings the concerns of these operators in regard of the risk of fire in a transformer in order to develop indicators and action plans adherent to the RE principles. The objective was to supplement a conventional risk analysis based on fault tree and event trees with RE elements, optimizing the emergency action plan. The results showed the opportunity for improvement of proactive indicators for risk analysis The second one, inspired by the FRAM method, deals with the normal operation and variability of four typical operational maneuvers selected by operators within four quadrants of a periodicity-complexity matrix. The results indicated that the same variabilities influence the operational steps, regardless of the complexity or the periodicity of the maneuver. A comparison between the analysis of the variabilities in normal situation and the reports of the four operational failures occurred between 2006 and 2015 indicated that success and failure come from the same source, and that some variabilities such as “maneuver environment”, “necessity to confirm the maneuver steps” and “situations that take the attention of the operator” act decisively in virtually all maneuvers. The results were discussed with the team members who proposed the necessary adaptations to increase the operational safety of normal work from the RE perspective.

The aim of the diploma thesis is to analyze the production enterprise under the risk conditions and to identify the risk factors which have the influence on agricultural business. The theoretical part gives a definition of risk, risk classification and risk management with different methods of risk treatment. The special part is focused on agricultural risk management, its objectives and principles. The analytic part of the thesis contains characteristics of the analyzed enterprise. Special attention is paid to the calculation formula in plant and livestock production and the break even analysis. The risk analysis is performed in the following order: threat identification and risk-ranking matrix determination according to probability of occurrence and severity of consequences. Based on a strategy are identified ways to reduce risk and determined the risk mitigation. Improvements for the enterprise are suggested on the basis of the results.

During our lives, we encounter various situations which we must learn to face so that the impacts on the lives, health and the environment can be as small as possible. One of the means of help usable for the crisis management is to prepare emergency and crisis plans. Given the frequency of natural and anthropogenic threats the planning has become an essential part of our lives. After the amendment of Act No. 240/2000 Coll., on crisis management, the obligation to process emergency preparedness plans for individual entities ensuring implementation of the measures resulting from the emergency plan of the region was updated. For this reason, I have focused in my thesis on the development of the emergency preparedness plan for South Bohemian University Colleges and Canteens. In the theoretical part, I first explained some basic terms. I continued with the description of threads and risks along with the evaluation methods. I also focused on measures to protect population which are on a very good level in CR, some of them has even become a model for the neighbouring countries. I mentioned the crisis situations that are declared when an incident event grows into a crisis situation. Then, I formulated the role of state authorities, local government bodies, security councils and emergency committees. I closed up the theoretical knowledge with the issue of safety planning which aims to reduce the consequences of situation that endanger us. The theoretical part is followed by research conducted by the qualitative form of data collection. The main question that the thesis wants to answer is: What are the risks that endanger performance of the tasks arising from the crisis plan of the region to South Bohemian University in ČB ? Colleges and Canteens? As regards the methodology of the thesis, it was crucial to gather data needed for the processing of the emergency preparedness plan, which are achieved through controlled interviews with the Director of Colleges and University Canteens, safety officer of the University, Head of University Canteen, maintenance staff and through cooperation with the ČHMÚ. I obtained other relevant information through cooperation with the South Bohemian HZS which provided the necessary cooperation needed to prepare this plan. It mainly included information needed to analyze external threat. Then I analyzed the internal risks which could interfere with the function of the entity and thus performance of tasks from the regional emergency plan. At this stage it was necessary to examine the University College and Canteen buildings. When analyzing the risks I came to a conclusion that the operation of the South Bohemian University Colleges and Canteens may be discontinued by the following hazards: natural floods (only in the case of Colleges K5 and K6), special floods, road transport of dangerous substances, risks resulting from climatic conditions (snow calamity and long-lasting frosts, storms, hurricanes, torrential rains), building fires, gas leaks (endangering the buildings of Colleges K1, K2, K3 and Canteens where gas is used for cooking appliances), power supply failure, heat supply failure and failures in the supply of food and water. The thesis findings can serve not only to deal with crisis situations but they can also be used by South Bohemian University students as a source of information or a basis for other work aimed at e.g. creating suitable conditions and environment for communication with people affected by the crisis situation who were forced to leave their homes and temporarily stay in the buildings of the University Colleges and Canteens. As these events cause pressure on human mind it is necessary to provide assistance to these people.

The thesis describes the issue of emergency preparedness and protection of the inhabitants in the National Corporation Budweiser Budvar during the release of hazardous substances. The thesis is focused on important aspects that determine the drafting of emergency documentation. One of aspects is the amount of hazardous chemical - ammonia. The total ammonia content in the object is 22 tons. This amount is according to the Act No. 59/2006 Coll., concerning prevention of major accidents as a sub-limit amount and not as an object into group A or B. On these not-classified resources are not subject to some duties under this Act, especially the obligation to prepare an emergency documentation (except where the regional authority include in the emergency plan then must provide and update the required documents). This paper doesn´t discuss by the massive leakage of 22 tons of ammonia. On the basis of analyzes were identified two sources of the risk. The first is a reservoir about the content of 10 tons which is located on the roof of the engine room. Maximum real filling is around 6 tons. The second source of risk is an expansion tank about the content of 14 tons, which is located in the building with cylinderconicals tanks (CKT). Considered fulfillment of the expansion vessel is about 7 tons. Although in this case is not about buildings and facility in which is treated with such a amount of dangerous chemical substances, which would belonged to the relevant group, I will perform available analysis according to a regulations issued or supportively used to analysis and risk assessment in according to the Act No. 59/2006 Coll., concerning prevention of major accidents. Harmful effects of ammonia are another important aspect. According to the Notice of the Ministry of Interior No. 103/2006 Coll., concerning establish principles defining the emergency planning zone and the extent and method of preparation of an external emergency plan, ammonia is taken as moderately toxic substance that irritates the eyes, mucous membranes, and in high concentrations can cause death. The great advantage from the point of view of the protection inhabitants are the warning properties. Characteristic pungency is already known in very weak concentrations. Also disposal of hazardous concentrations isn't technologically challenging, due to its solubility in the water. Another dangerous effect, except the toxicity is its explosiveness (explosive limit from 15 to 28 %) and flammability. Fortunately controlled condensing pressure prevents ignition and explosion of ammonia. Risk of the explosion and ignition of ammonia isn´t analyzed in this thesis, because the range of effects caused by leakage of several tons, is from a toxicological point of view more threatening. Impacts of hazardous concentrations aren´t threat only for people but also for animals and the environment. The thesis focuses on the analysis and evaluation of risks. The results of this research are an important element of the draft of emergency documentation. During the processing is calculated with methods IAEA-TECDOC-727, Dow's Chemical Exposure Index, Estimation of toxicity and software modeling program ALOHA. Further research is being done by brainstorming and semi-standardized interviews with employees of the company. In conclusion of the thesis is appropriate the drafting of emergency cards and emergency documentation (although not in range under the Act of concerning prevention of major accidents), according to which the reaction proceeded for any leakage of dangerous chemicals (ammonia) into the environment and the protection of workers which occur at the public premises or in the premises of the zone of impact of ammonia spilled outside the area Budweiser Budvar, NC. The use of the draft of emergency documentation is also conditioned by the location of the object in relatively densely populated areas of the county town of České Budějovice.

O objetivo deste trabalho é a previsão de inadimplência. Foram implementados dois modelos de previsão de inadimplência, de modo que o primeiro modelo fez uso de uma rede neural feedforward utilizando o algoritmo de retro propagação, e o segundo utilizou uma rede não supervisionada (rede Kohonen). As características relevantes de usuários de crédito foram apresentadas para as redes neurais, para o seu treinamento e teste. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que tanto as redes neurais supervisionadas quanto as redes neurais não supervisionadas mostraram-se instrumentos eficazes para o processo de previsão de inadimplência. / The objective of this work is the insolvency forecast. They were implemented two insolvency forecast models, so that the first model used a feed forward neural network utilizing the retro propagation algorithm, and the second utilized a non-supervised neural network (Kohonen networks). The prominent characteristics of credit users were presented for the neural networks, for their training and test. The results obtained showed that the supervised network as well the non-supervised neural network showed themselves efficient instruments for the insolvency forecast trial.

Projetos de construção são caracterizados pela escala, complexidade e seus riscos. Não é incomum encontrar planejamento e definição de escopo incompletos o que leva a aumento de custos e prazos. O objetivo desse trabalho é descrever um método de avaliação de riscos de forma a aumentar a previsibilidade da estimativa de custos do empreendimento. Para isso foram utilizados conceitos de gerenciamento de projetos, de simulação e de analise de riscos descritos na literatura para a constituição de um método de análise de riscos em estimativa de custos. A aplicação do método proposto em comparação com o método tradicional traz vantagens no que diz respeito à abrangência da análise. Enquanto pelo método tradicional a análise do empreendimento se faz por meio de suas tarefas, o método proposto analisa de forma distinta o planejamento do empreendimento nas suas três dimensões fundamentais: escopo, prazo e custo. / Construction projects are characterized by their scale, complexity, and their common risks. Its not uncommon to find incomplete project planning and scope definition which often leads to cost and schedule overruns. The objective of this work is to describe a method of risk assessment in order to increase the accuracy of the project cost estimate. To meet this objective, its been utilized project management, simulation and risk analysis concepts to build a cost estimate risk analysis method. The method proposed in this work has advantages in terms of the analysis broadness in comparison with the traditional method. By using the traditional method, the project analysis is oriented by work on the other hand by using the proposed method, the project is analyzed distinctively in its three fundamental dimensions: scope, cost and schedule.

This diploma thesis analyzes the threats and risks that can occur in the administrative district of Borovany town and the preparedness of the municipality to face these undesirable elements. The result of this work, based on the crisis plan of ORP Trhové Sviny, is the Borovany's emergency law. The whole work consists of three basic parts. In the first theoretical part, we are dealing with valid legislation on emergency and crisis situations. Here are defined the most important concepts, such as risks, threats, integrated rescue system, emergency event, and crisis situation. When collecting and sorting data, I proceeded mainly by the factual-analytical method. I have consulted this problematics with experts in various fields. In the next part of my diploma thesis I deal with methodology of research focused on risk detection in the administrative district of Borovany. There is described a multi-criteria risk analysis of the crisis plan of the ORP Trhové Sviny, which is the source for this thesis. In a research part, the Borovany town is characterized, for which the plan is being prepared. The most important part of the diploma thesis is the Borovany risk analysis. Out of the total of 34 threats to ORP Trhové Sviny, 12 were identified that could arise in the administrative district of Borovany. By multi-criteria and SWOT analysis, it was found that the ORP Trhové Sviny crisis plans are too general and insufficient for the Borovany administrative district to prepare for emergency events. This conclusion is based on the SWOT analysis, where I detected threats that the crisis plan does not consider. In the next part, I analysed the identified threats by model action plans and I investigated the negative impacts on the inhabitants, the functioning of the municipality. I also planned the necessary measures for specific cases of emergency event. The result of the thesis is a proposal of the crisis preparedness plan of the Borovany town and the finding that Borovany town is not fully prepared for the current risks because the crisis plan of the ORP Trhové Sviny is too general and does not analyze all the threats that may arise here. The proposed plan should help the response to emergency events and crisis situations in the district and the created cards should make it easier to solve. The resulting proposed plan could become a template for other municipalities in solving and managing emergency events and crisis situations.

Les travaux réalisés pendant cette thèse portent sur l’étude de la sûreté du Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) et incluent à la fois des méthodes d’analyse de risques et des calculs déterministes de sûreté et de design. Ce travail s’inscrit dans le cadre du projet européen SAMOFAR.Le MSFR est un réacteur régénérateur à spectre neutronique rapide qui fonctionne en cycle thorium dans sa configuration de référence, établie en début du projet SAMOFAR. Il a été sélectionné par le Forum International Génération IV pour son potentiel prometteur. Comme tout réacteur nucléaire de quatrième génération, il doit répondre à différentes contraintes dont une sûreté optimale. Celle-ci doit être étudiée dès le stade de conception afin d’être intégrée au design lors de sa définition plutôt qu’ajoutée a posteriori. En raison de ses spécificités, en particulier l’état liquide du combustible, et du stade préliminaire de son design, l’analyse de sûreté du MSFR nécessite l’utilisation de méthodologies d’analyse de sûreté adaptées et technologiquement neutres. Dans cette thèse, une telle méthodologie a été développée et une première application au MSFR réalisée. Elle a notamment permis d’identifier les évènements initiateurs d’accident de ce réacteur et d’élaborer une liste resserrée d’évènements à traiter dans la suite de l’analyse de sûreté.D’autre part, un nouveau code système a été développé pour les études de sûreté. Il est basé sur la diffusion neutronique, prend en compte le transport des précurseurs de neutrons retardés et la puissance résiduelle du combustible. Il a été utilisé pour simuler les transitoires associés à certains des évènements initiateurs et évaluer leurs conséquences pour définir, par la suite, des systèmes de protection adaptés. Ce travail a confirmé l’importance d’un dispositif spécifique au MSFR, le système de vidange d’urgence, permettant de vidanger le combustible en cas d’accident en cœur. Des études paramétriques ont été menées afin de dimensionner ce système avec pour objectif d'assurer l’évacuation de la chaleur résiduelle du combustible et sa sous-criticité en toutes circonstances.Enfin, une première ébauche de l’architecture de sûreté du réacteur a été proposée incluant l’identification des systèmes de protection et la définition des barrières de confinement. Les études de sûreté ont permis de faire des retours sur le design initialement défini. Ils incluent l’ajout de composants, des propositions de design alternatifs, et soulignent les manques de connaissances sur certains phénomènes ou procédures. L’analyse de sûreté réalisée remplit ainsi son objectif principal : guider le design du réacteur dès sa conception afin d’en améliorer la sûreté. / This PhD thesis focuses on the study of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) safety. It includes risk analysis methods and deterministic computations for the safety and the design of the reactor. This work was performed in the frame of the SAMOFAR European project.The MSFR is an is-breeder reactor with a fast neutron spectrum. In its reference configuration, defined at the beginning of the SAMOFAR project, it works with the thorium fuel cycle. The MSFR was selected by the Generation IV international forum for its promising features. As any fourth-generation reactor, it must fulfill several objectives including an improved safety. Thus, safety studies should be performed from the early design phases to achieve a safety that is built-in the design rather than added-on. Because of the unique characteristics of the MSFR, including a liquid circulating fuel, and its preliminary design phase, the safety assessment of the reactor should rely on adapted and technological neutral methodologies. In this PhD, such a methodology was developed and a first application to the MSFR was carried on. It allowed to identify the initiating events of the reactor and to elaborate a restricted list of events to be studied in the next steps of the safety analysis.Furthermore, a new code system was developed for the safety studies. It is based on neutronic diffusion and takes into account the movement of the delayed neutrons precursors and the production of the residual heat in the fuel. It was used to simulate the transients associated to some of the identified initiating events with the objective to evaluate their consequences and the need for adequate protection systems. This work confirmed the importance of a device that is specific to the MSFR: the emergency draining system (EDS). It allows to drain the fuel in case of accident in the core. Parametric studies were then carried on for the sizing of the EDS with the objective to ensure the evacuation of the residual heat and the sub-criticality of the system under any circumstances.Finally, a first version of the safety architecture was proposed with the identification of the protection systems and the definition of the confinement barriers. Thanks to the safety studies, feedbacks on the initial design were made to enhance the safety the reactor. They include the addition of new components, the modification of some systems and they highlight the lack of knowledge on some phenomena or procedure. In that respect, the safety analysis fulfil its main objective: to influence the design of the reactor since its conception in order to improve its safety.

Num mundo onde a competitividade ultrapassa as fronteiras nacionais, onde perturbações políticas e econômicas têm uma repercussão imediata em todo o globo, as empresas precisam cada vez estar preparadas para reagir rapidamente. A dinâmica dos movimentos globais não mais permite que as empresas e organizações possam esperar muito tempo para tomar medidas adaptativas. As respostas devem ser rápidas. O nível de incertezas onde a empresa opera deve ser melhor entendido, de forma que os riscos de uma tomada de decisão inadequada possam ser mitigados. Contudo, melhor que reagir aos fatos é buscar se antecipar aos mesmos. Mas a antecipação requer que os eventos possíveis sejam analisados, não apenas quanto aos seus possíveis impactos, mas também quanto à sua probabilidade de ocorrência. Este trabalho tem como objetivo maior propor um modelo de projeção e análise das demonstrações financeiras das empresas, segundo uma visão não apenas determinística, mas empregando técnicas probabilísticas, que permitam aos gestores das empresas passarem pelo processo de tomada de decisão com um nível de informação que permita a eles terem uma idéia muito clara do nível de risco que envolve as suas decisões. E este modelo torna isto possível ao se utilizar da metodologia de Monte Carlo. Esta metodologia permite que as variáveis críticas de uma empresa sejam tratadas a partir das suas distribuições de probabilidades de ocorrência. Assim, preços de produtos e insumos, variáveis externas tais como a taxa de juros, a taxa câmbio e a taxa da inflação podem ser avaliadas dentro de uma expectativa de ocorrência, como variáveis estocásticas, e não mais como constantes no problema. Com isto, podemos simular os resultados de uma empresa, que serão disponibilizados ao gestor segundo sua distribuição de probabilidade. Este processo permitirá que o gestor possa tomar quaisquer decisões, sejam de investimentos, de política de preços, de endividamento, etc., com um nível de informação muito mais adequado do que quando ele dispõe apenas de informações determinísticas com análise de sensibilidade, visto que esta última nada informa quanto à probabilidade de ocorrência do evento. / In a world where the competitiveness crosses the national borders, where political and economical instabilities have an immediate impact in the whole globe, the companies need to be prepared to give a fast response. The dynamics of the global movements no more allows that the companies and organizations take a long time to implement new alternatives. The answers should be fast. The uncertainties about company environment should be better understood, so the risks of a wrong decision can be mitigated. However, better than to react to the facts, is to anticipate them. The anticipation requests that the possible events must be deeply understood, not just as for their possible impacts, but also for its probability of occurrence. This work has as objective to propose a simulation and analysis financial model of companies, considering probabilistic techniques to allow managers go through decision process with a level of information sufficient enough to permit them to have a clear understanding about the risks involved in their decision. This model turns this possible through the utilization of Monte Carlo’s methodology. This methodology allows the critical variables of a company to be treated as random variables. Prices of products and macroeconomics variables such as interest rate, rate exchange and rate of inflation can be considered as random variables and not as constants in the model. The results of a company will be available to the managers with a statistic treatment and a probabilistic analysis. This process will facilitate the managers decisions process about investments, price policies, loans and others critical subjects to the future of the company with a much more appropriate level of information.