Simulation has been used extensively for addressing probabilistic uncertainty in range estimating for construction projects. However, subjective and linguistically expressed information results in added non-probabilistic uncertainty in construction management. Fuzzy logic has been used successfully for representing such uncertainties in construction projects. In practice, an approach that can handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties in a risk assessment model is necessary. In this thesis, first, a Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation (FMCS) framework is proposed for risk analysis of construction projects. To verify the feasibility of the FMCS framework and demonstrate its main features, a cost range estimating template is developed and employed to estimate the cost of a highway overpass project. Second, a hybrid framework that considers both fuzzy and probabilistic uncertainty for discrete event simulation of construction projects is suggested. The application of the proposed framework is discussed using a real case study of a pipe spool fabrication shop. / Construction Engineering and Management

為落實現行企業的資訊安全評估，研究一創新的方法論，從企業流程的角度做分析評估，將企業要面臨的風險降低到可接受的等級。我們提出的發法論主要分為: (1) 發展企業流程表，找出此流程中要完成的所有功能(2) 指出各功能中對應需運作的接觸點/資訊管道/資訊資源，並評估可能面臨的風險 (3) 將這些面臨的風險，依據風險的可能性、風險的影響性，決定出各風險的風險等級　(4)提出在需建議的風險等級以上的接觸點/資訊管道/資訊資源的控制措施　(5) 確認現行企業是否有落實建議之控制措施。並實際訪談個案公司，完成此方法論的案例雛型。 / We are interested in evaluating the information security of a critical business process and its relevant issues. We try to provide a new security investigation method which is concerned with ensuring the continuity of business essential processes even the whole organization. This study will provide a methodology for analyzing the risk of each component of a process to replace the original information security method which was too widespread or too tiny. Base on such investigation, we can realize the security implements in the process and discover what component is needed to changed such as reduce risk or enhance security of that process to an acceptable level within the limited budget. In our methodology for each decisive business process., the following steps are proposed: (1) to develop the business process table, (2) to figure out all practices of CP/IC/IR corresponding to each function and the related risks, (3) to classify the risk likelihood, risk impact, and security level for each CP/IC/IR of the critical process, (4) to propose the corresponding controls for each CP/IC/IR, and (5) to check the installed controls: The last column, installed check, is took down if the proposed controls are installed or not. A case study of the loan process in a financial institution will be conducted here to illustrate the proposed methodology. We find that here are a number of benefits offered by the PWIO security investigation approach. It is designed from the higher level view point. It involves more members. It is easier to be supported by managers. It makes systematic analysis and check for the security controls in the business process. It costs less than the conventional risk analysis which is adopted for the whole enterprise. The PWIO security investigation methodology can be used in one of the processes and be modified to fit the unique enterprise, and then it can be followed out by the other processes. It can save time and money via try-and-modify steps.

Informed economic decisions are made on the basis of accounting data. It is therefore crucial to have rigorous and scientific approaches for measuring, modelling and forecasting accounting numbers. Dr Falta's research was motivated by two observations. Firstly, in accounting practice, decision-making often relies on subjective quantifications and forecasts of business activities and, thus, does not account for uncertainty in a rational way. Secondly, there are some academic foundations for statistical approaches to accounting, yet none has been developed carefully enough for results to penetrate and to contribute to practitioners' needs. Dr Falta applied components of mathematics, statistics, econometrics, finance and computing to aspects of accounting and auditing. He developed an enhanced framework for scientific measurement of business process costing and recording accounting transaction data. This has enabled a better understanding of risk in accounting-based decision-making. His research is being incorporated in projects with the Royal Australian Navy and SunWater.

Att kunna arbeta med systematisk hantering av brotts-, brands- och arbetsmiljörisker är en eftertraktadkompetens. Det syns inte minst i både näringslivets och den offentliga förvaltningensarbetsannonser när man söker chefer, handläggare eller samordnare till säkerhetsavdelningar.Trots det finns mycket lite skrivet på svenska om riskhantering och riskanalys i kontexten skyddmot brott. Ännu ovanligare är litteratur som jämför riskhantering mellan brandskydd, arbetsmiljöoch brottsskydd.Bristen på litteratur påverkar även studier av riskhantering inom fysisk och organisatorisk säkerhet,i synnerhet på akademisk nivå där det i Sverige är ett relativt nytt ämne. Att flytta fram positionernaoch vidga kunskapsfältet är därför angeläget både för ämnet fysisk- och organisatorisk säkerhetsåväl som för näringslivet. Detta kandidatarbete är ett tidigt bidrag till ett ämnesområde som ser utatt växa. Genom att kartlägga engelsspråkiga handböcker och det vetenskapliga kunskapsläget inomnärliggande discipliner har arbetet haft ytterligare ett mål: att nå ut med kunskap till de som arbetarmed riskhantering i praktiken och på så sätt vidga gruppens medvetenhet och yrkeskompetens.Uppsatsens syfte är att redovisa kunskapsläget och samtidigt visa på riskhanteringsprocessensbredd och djup. Mer konkret har det skett genom att identifiera likheter och skillnader i destuderade områdenas begreppsapparater, processbeskrivningar, problem, framgångsfaktorer ochsamtidigt redovisa eventuell kritik som riktas mot riskhantering som fenomen. Resultaten visar attdet finns fler likheter än skillnader mellan både riskhanteringsprocesser som riskanalysmetoder,oavsett om syftet är att skydda mot brott, ohälsa eller brand och olyckor.Arbetet har genomförts som en deskriptiv litteratursstudie och jämförande textanalys. Riskhanteringsprocessenhar beskrivits med utgångspunkt i den generiska ISO-standarden (31000:2009,Riskhantering - Principer och riktlinjer). Tio riskanalysmetoder som täcker samtliga steg i riskbedömningsmomentethar valts ut och beskrivits. Redovisning med tillhörande analys har följtsamma ordningsföljd som standardens processbeskrivning. Materialet har kompletterats ochjämförts med facklitteratur och vetenskapliga artiklar från tre riskhanteringsområden: (1) skyddmot ohälsa i arbetsmiljön, (2) skydd mot brand och olyckor samt (3) skydd mot brott.Uppsatsen ger även exempel på den inkonsekventa begreppsanvändningen som förekommer bådemellan och inom olika discipliner som sysslar med riskhantering. En av uppsatsens slutsatser äratt det sannolikt inte går att skapa en enhetlig begreppsapparat varken inom akademin eller i denpraktiska verksamheten samtidigt som det heller inte är nödvändigt. Istället kan missförstånd undvikasgenom att tydligt och i varje enskilt fall definiera vad man avser med ett visst begrepp. / The competence to manage risks related to health, security, fire and safety is a sought-after skill.This is especially noticeable in both business and public administration job postings for therecruitment process of managers, administrators or coordinators to security departments. At thesame time there is little specialist literature available in Swedish on the subject of risk managementin the context of protecting assets and people from physical security threats. The lack of literatureaffects the study of risk management from a physical and procedural security perspective,particularly at an academic level where this is a relatively new topic. To move forward and expandthe field of knowledge is an important step, not only for the scientific community but also for theindustry. This bachelor thesis attempts to be an initial but significant contribution to a topic thatis likely to grow. By mapping what has already been published on the subject in English as wellas summing up and analyzing the scientific knowledge from similar disciplines the thesis has alsohad an additional goal: to reach out with knowledge to those dealing with risk management inpractice, and thus raising their awareness and developing their professional skills.The purpose of this study is to present the current state of knowledge and at the same time toshow the width and depth of the risk management process. This is done by identifying similaritiesand differences in definitions, process descriptions, problems and best practice of the studied areaswhile at the same time account for any criticism offered against risk management as a concept.The results show that there are more similarities than differences in the risk management processand methods regardless of whether the purpose is to protect people and assets from healthhazards, crime, fire or accidents.The paper has been conducted as a descriptive literature study and a comparative textual analysis.The risk management process has been described with reference to the generic ISO standard(31000:2009, Risk management - Principles and guidelines). Also, ten common risk analysismethods that cover all steps in the risk assessment process have been described. The narrative andrelated analysis follow the same order as the ISO-standard process description.The material has been supplemented and compared with guidelines and scientific papers from threetypes of risks management contexts: (1) health hazards, (2) fire and safety, and (3) security.The paper also provides examples of the inconsistent use of terms and definitions both between andwithin different disciplines involved in risk management. One of the conclusions of the report is thatcreating a unified, universal terminology to be used in the security context probably is impossibleas well as being not necessary. Instead, certain terminological misunderstandings can be avoided byproviding clear definitions and explanations of their meaning in each particular case.

Les services de stérilisation sont des lieux de production de soins caractérisés par une multitude d’activités et situations auxquelles ils sont confrontés. En outre, les services de stérilisation doivent assurer leurs missions dans un environnement caractérisé par la présence d’une variété de risques. Les risques présents dans ces milieux peuvent aller des pannes des équipements jusqu’aux contaminations et transmission des maladies nosocomiales. Ces services sont aussi tenus de garder un niveau de performances satisfaisant pour assurer la continuité des soins dans les blocs opératoires.Pour aider ces services dans leur quête d'un système performant, capable d’évoluer dans un environnement à haut niveau de risques, nous nous intéressons dans ce travail de recherche au développement d’une approche intégrée pour l’analyse de risques et l’évaluation des performances. Ce travail s’intègre dans un cadre collaboratif entre le laboratoire G-SCOP et le service de stérilisation du CHU de Grenoble, terrain d’étude choisi pour mettre en œuvre l’approche proposée.L'approche que nous proposons se déroule en plusieurs étapes: tout d’abord, suite à une comparaison entre les méthodes de gestion des risques, nous nous sommes orientés vers l’approche pilotée par modèle, dénommée FIS (Fonction Interaction Structure). En nous basant sur FIS, nous avons développé un modèle de risque dans ce service de stérilisation, décrivant à la fois les fonctions, les ressources permettant la réalisation de ces fonctions ainsi que les différents risques qui peuvent être rencontrés. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons représenté le comportement dynamique du modèle de risques obtenu. Ce modèle dynamique permet de simuler le comportement du service de stérilisation et le voir évoluer dans les situations normales de fonctionnement et les situations de risques. Pour ce faire, nous avons introduit une nouvelle classe de réseau de Petri appelée réseau de Petri PTPS (Predicate-Transition, Prioritized, Synchronous) permettant de représenter et simuler le comportement dynamique du modèle FIS. Par la suite, nous avons automatisé le passage entre le modèle de risque et le modèle dynamique. Cette automatisation est effectuée par un ensemble d’algorithmes de traduction, capables de convertir automatiquement le modèle FIS et le modèle de simulation en réseau de Petri PTPS.Cette approche a donné lieu à un outil de modélisation et de simulation en mode dégradé, appelé SIM-RISK. Nous avons également montré l’utilité de cet outil sur des exemples inspirés des différents risques rencontrés dans le service de stérilisation. / Sterilization services are vulnerable to risks, due to the contagious nature of their environment and to the degradation that risks can cause to their performances and to the safety of patients and staff. The risks in these facilities can range from equipment failure to the transmission of nosocomial infections and diseases. In this kind of high risk environment, these services are also required to maintain an adequate level of performance to ensure continuity of care in operating theaters.We focus in this research on the development of an integrated approach for risk analysis and performance assessment. This work is part of a collaborative work between the G-SCOP laboratory and the sterilization service of the University Hospital of Grenoble, which was the case study chosen to implement the proposed approach.The approach we propose is conducted in several steps: first, following a comparison of the risk analysis methods, we have chosen a model driven approach called FIS (Function Interaction Structure). Based on FIS, we have developed a risk model of Grenoble University Hospital sterilization service. This model describes the functions, the resources to achieve these functions as well as the various risks that may be encountered. Secondly, we introduced a new view to the FIS model dedicated to describe the dynamic behaviour of the resulting risk model.This dynamic model can simulate the behaviour of the sterilization service in normal situations of operations and risk situations.To do this, we have introduced a new Petri Net class called PTPS (Predicate-Transition, Prioritized, Synchronous) Petri Net to represent and simulate the dynamic behaviour of the FIS model. Subsequently, we automated the switching between the risk model and the dynamic model. This automation is performed by a set of translation algorithms capable of automatically converting the FIS model to a PTPS Petri Net simulation model .This approach resulted in a modelling and simulation tool in degraded mode called SIM-RISK. We also showed the usefulness of this tool by some examples based on different risks encountered in the sterilization service.

Current state: Using tools to identify and analyse risks is presently very important in nursing to minimise the risk of harm to patients that can be prevented. The FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) is a very efficient tool to address the failure issue. It is an important preventive method determining possible failures and proposing preventive measures to minimise the risk of errors. The RCA (Root Cause Analysis) is another important tool to handle failures. Objectives of the work: The objective of the research was to determine processes with the highest risks in nursing and to find out the most common risks associated with the nurse profession. Another objective is to describe the undesirable events reporting methods and to find out the utilisation of all risk analysis methods by nurses. And the final objective was to describe the intervention fall prevention programmes.Methodology: A qualitative research method was used to prepare the empirical part of the thesis. Data were collected using in-depth interviews. Qualitative data were coded using the pencil and paper technique; data were then categorised and respective subcategories were determined and shown in the SmartArt application. Research participants: Interviews were conducted with the head nurse, quality manager, senior nursing officer and departmental sister from the department of internal medicine, department of neurology and aftercare department. The first research was conducted in Nemocnice Jindřichův Hradec, a.s., the second in Nemocnice Tábor, a.s. and the final one in Nemocnice Písek, a.s. Results: It was found out from the results of the qualitative research that the most risky processes included medication in form of pills when, for example, generics drugs are given incorrectly or drugs of wrong strength are administered. The second risk process is the preparation of drugs from concentrated solutions of kalium, heparin or insulin. Administering intravenous drugs and infusion solutions is the third risky process. Too many activities of a nurse at one time is often the cause. Non-cooperation, poor communication of the patient and his/her family also lead to risky situations.Another serious group of risky processes includes patient transfer, moving the patient from a stretcher to a bed or going to the toilet. Further, it was found out that the most common risks are nosocomial infections, falls and decubital ulcers. Too much workload of nurses and new staff undergoing training are also mentioned as a risk. They include in particular medical assistants. Prescribing drugs through a computer system where the doctor relies on the nurse that she will alert when wrong drugs are prescribed although it is not her obligation to do so is also considered a common risk. Closing the infectious department in a hospital is the next risk. Patients who have a suspicion for certain diseases are then examined in a department. Nurses working there are afraid of getting infected from the ill person. And quite often, a disease is really found in the patients. Respondents gave different answers to the procedure of reporting undesirable events. The answers were different from one hospital to another. Nevertheless, all the reporting go to the hospital management that evaluates it. Nurses in the inquired hospitals do not use any risk analysis method. Not even nurses in management positions do not work with the methods and do not know the FMEA method. A direct analysis is addressed by the quality manager who most often uses the RCA analysis. Its results are discussed at meetings of nurses in the department, meetings of senior nursing officers or meetings of chief physicians. As for preventive programmes reducing the risk of falls it was found out that in all hospitals the screening of the risk of falls is standardly performed in all patients upon admission, except hospitalisations shorter than 3 days.

Num mundo onde a competitividade ultrapassa as fronteiras nacionais, onde perturbações políticas e econômicas têm uma repercussão imediata em todo o globo, as empresas precisam cada vez estar preparadas para reagir rapidamente. A dinâmica dos movimentos globais não mais permite que as empresas e organizações possam esperar muito tempo para tomar medidas adaptativas. As respostas devem ser rápidas. O nível de incertezas onde a empresa opera deve ser melhor entendido, de forma que os riscos de uma tomada de decisão inadequada possam ser mitigados. Contudo, melhor que reagir aos fatos é buscar se antecipar aos mesmos. Mas a antecipação requer que os eventos possíveis sejam analisados, não apenas quanto aos seus possíveis impactos, mas também quanto à sua probabilidade de ocorrência. Este trabalho tem como objetivo maior propor um modelo de projeção e análise das demonstrações financeiras das empresas, segundo uma visão não apenas determinística, mas empregando técnicas probabilísticas, que permitam aos gestores das empresas passarem pelo processo de tomada de decisão com um nível de informação que permita a eles terem uma idéia muito clara do nível de risco que envolve as suas decisões. E este modelo torna isto possível ao se utilizar da metodologia de Monte Carlo. Esta metodologia permite que as variáveis críticas de uma empresa sejam tratadas a partir das suas distribuições de probabilidades de ocorrência. Assim, preços de produtos e insumos, variáveis externas tais como a taxa de juros, a taxa câmbio e a taxa da inflação podem ser avaliadas dentro de uma expectativa de ocorrência, como variáveis estocásticas, e não mais como constantes no problema. Com isto, podemos simular os resultados de uma empresa, que serão disponibilizados ao gestor segundo sua distribuição de probabilidade. Este processo permitirá que o gestor possa tomar quaisquer decisões, sejam de investimentos, de política de preços, de endividamento, etc., com um nível de informação muito mais adequado do que quando ele dispõe apenas de informações determinísticas com análise de sensibilidade, visto que esta última nada informa quanto à probabilidade de ocorrência do evento. / In a world where the competitiveness crosses the national borders, where political and economical instabilities have an immediate impact in the whole globe, the companies need to be prepared to give a fast response. The dynamics of the global movements no more allows that the companies and organizations take a long time to implement new alternatives. The answers should be fast. The uncertainties about company environment should be better understood, so the risks of a wrong decision can be mitigated. However, better than to react to the facts, is to anticipate them. The anticipation requests that the possible events must be deeply understood, not just as for their possible impacts, but also for its probability of occurrence. This work has as objective to propose a simulation and analysis financial model of companies, considering probabilistic techniques to allow managers go through decision process with a level of information sufficient enough to permit them to have a clear understanding about the risks involved in their decision. This model turns this possible through the utilization of Monte Carlo’s methodology. This methodology allows the critical variables of a company to be treated as random variables. Prices of products and macroeconomics variables such as interest rate, rate exchange and rate of inflation can be considered as random variables and not as constants in the model. The results of a company will be available to the managers with a statistic treatment and a probabilistic analysis. This process will facilitate the managers decisions process about investments, price policies, loans and others critical subjects to the future of the company with a much more appropriate level of information.

In the practical part I have proposed an emergency plan for the Regional Police Directorate of South Bohemia (RPD). The main question was: "what are the potential threats to (i) building (ii) day-to-day operations of the Directorate?" The question was addressed through an expert research and security inspection of the building; identified threats were analysed and an adequate security measures were proposed in the concluding paragraph.Some threats were taken from the Emergency Plan of South Bohemia, some of the other security documentation that establishes a Regional Police Directorate of the South Region. In another part of the Plan of emergency preparedness are contained details of the processor and its activities, which in the case of the RPD of the South Bohemian region only to protect internal security and public order in the region

Changing the environment in which they inhabit all living beings is provided through large interference. These modifications are more widespread antropicamente, explaining that the man is more agent transformer that inhabits the Earth. These transformations are accentuated because of activities that have great power of contamination, particularly when they generate waste and they are released into water bodies without proper treatment. These releases when made available in urban watersheds generate significant pressures, leading to great risks to water resources and consequently to the population. The risk analysis applied to watersheds allows the orientation and adaptation of potentially polluting activities, through the establishment of conditions, aimed at improving the quality of the water. However, a question is raised: one can assume that the quality of the water of the springs reflects the results indicated in the risk analysis of the watershed? Leaving this questioning, this work aimed to study the compatibility between risk analysis and contamination of waters in the catchment area of the river Jacarecica, located in the urban area of the city of Maceió and that is water drop through transposition of bowls. To this end, we used the qualitative method of risk analysis and in parallel were collected samples of surface water and groundwater in field campaigns, being subsequently analyzed twenty-one parameters related to water quality. The field data were also compared to the parameters released by potentially polluting activities. The results obtained, it was found that there is compatibility between the risk obtained and water quality in some of these parameters. In addition, the analysis showed that were exceeded limits of quality established by the brazilian legislation in some parameters. / A alteração do meio em que habitam todos os seres vivos é proporcionada através de grandes interferências. Essas modificações são mais difundidas antropicamente, explicando que o homem é o agente mais transformador que habita a terra. Essas transformações são acentuadas em função de atividades que têm grande poder de contaminação, principalmente quando geram resíduos e os mesmos são lançados em corpos hídricos sem tratamento adequado. Esses lançamentos quando disponibilizados em bacias hidrográficas urbanas geram pressões significativas, acarretando em grandes riscos para os recursos hídricos e consequentemente para a população. A análise de risco aplicada aos mananciais hídricos possibilita a orientação e adequação de atividades potencialmente poluidoras, através do estabelecimento de condicionantes, visando à melhoria da qualidade da água. No entanto, uma questão é colocada: pode-se pressupor que a qualidade da água dos mananciais reflete os resultados indicados na análise de risco da bacia hidrográfica? Partindo deste questionamento, este trabalho teve como objetivo estudar a compatibilidade entre a análise de risco e a contaminação das águas na Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Jacarecica, localizado na área urbana da cidade de Maceió e que é receptora de águas, através de transposição de bacias. Para tanto, foi utilizado o método qualitativo de análise de risco e em paralelo foram coletadas amostras de água superficial e subterrânea em campanhas de campo, sendo posteriormente analisados vinte e um parâmetros relacionados à qualidade da água. Os dados de campo também foram comparados aos parâmetros lançados pelas atividades potencialmente poluidoras. Nos resultados obtidos, verificou-se que há compatibilidade entre o risco obtido e a qualidade da água em alguns desses parâmetros. Além disso, as análises mostraram que foram ultrapassados limites de qualidade estabelecidos pela legislação brasileira em alguns parâmetros.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T14:17:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 2.pdf: 2275371 bytes, checksum: 0069b965e4de6a8233ddb51b3d97ba1b (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Tecnologia em Fármacos/Farmanguinhos. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil. / Os testes de monitoramento ambiental representam importante ferramenta de verificação da qualidade do ar ambiente de áreas onde preparações estéreis são produzidas e controladas quanto a possíveis contaminações. Define-se riscos como potencial perigo de ocorrer um dano ao processo ou, em termos de saúde, reações adversas às pessoas expostas a ele. Descrever os perigos envolvidos no processo de monitoramento ambiental, a segurança na execução destes testes e a avaliação dos resultados obtidos pelos mesmos, seu controle e monitoramento, além de propor melhorias foi o objetivo principal desta dissertação. A ferramenta qualitativa HACCP foi escolhida, pois se aplica a todas as etapas de um processo baseada no prévio conhecimento do mesmo visando à prevenção de falhas. Todos os princípios da ferramenta HACCP foram aplicados ao Programa de Monitoramento Ambiental de uma indústria biofarmacêutica. O diagnóstico dos potenciais perigos que cercam o processo e seus impactos foi propiciado com a análise de riscos realizada. Com a análise de riscos do processo de monitoramento ambiental conclui-se que o mesmo é seguro, robusto, apresentando resultados confiáveis e compatíveis às condições reais do ambiente monitorado. / The environmental monitoring tests are an important tool for checking the quality of ambient air in areas where sterile preparations are produced and controlled for possible contamination. Risk is defined as a potential demage to the process or, in terms of health, adverse reactions to people exposed to it. Describing the hazards involved in the environmental monitoring, the safety in performing these tests and the evaluation of results obtained by them, their control and monitoring, and to propose improvements was the main goal of this dissertation. The HACCP qualitative tool was chosen because it applies to all stages of a process based on prior knowledge of it, preventing failures. All the principles of HACCP tool were applied to the Environmental Monitoring Program of the biopharmaceutical industry. The diagnosis of the potential dangers surrounding the process and its impact was facilitated with the risk analysis performed. With the risk analysis of the environmental monitoring process it was concluded that it is safe, robust, showing reliable results consistent with the real conditions of the monitored environment.