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[en] ANALYSIS AND VALUATION OF EQUITY PREMIUM PUZZLE IN THE BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKETS UNDER DIFFERENT ECONOMIC CONTEXTS / [pt] ANÁLISE E AVALIAÇÃO DO EQUITY PREMIUM PUZZLE NO MERCADO ACIONÁRIO BRASILEIRO SOB DIFERENTES CONTEXTOS ECONÔMICOSROBSON CABRAL DOS SANTOS 28 August 2006 (has links)
[pt] O Equity Premium Puzzle tem sido muito estudado no mundo
desde 1985,
ano da publicação do trabalho de Mehra e Prescott. O
intuito desta dissertação
foi fazer uma análise e avaliação do Equity Premium Puzzle
utilizando diferentes
contextos vividos na economia brasileira no período de
1990 até 2005. O modelo
utilizado foi o do agente representativo com utilidade
separável no tempo
desenvolvido por Mehra e Prescott (1985). A fim de
realizar comparações de
resultados foi utilizado também o modelo revisado por
Mehra (2003) e um
modelo com utilidade tipo Kreps - Porteus com processo de
dotação seguindo a
cadeia de Markov. / [en] The Equity Premium Puzzle has been very studied in the
world since 1985,
year of the publication of the work of Mehra and Prescott.
The intention of this
dissertation was to make an analysis and valuation of the
Equity Premium Puzzle
being used different contexts lived in the Brazilian
economy in the period of
1990 up to 2005. It was used the representative agent
model with separable
utility in the time developed for Mehra and the Prescott
(1985). In order to carry
through comparisons of results was used also the model
revised for Mehra
(2003) and a model with utility type Kreps - Porteus with
endowment process
having followed the Markov´s chain.
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La modélisation du risque en immobilier d'entreprise / The risk modelling in the office investment marketVu Anh Tuan, Eric 15 April 2014 (has links)
L’immobilier est un actif récalcitrant, hétérogène et illiquide, ces incertitudes constituent l`appréhension du risque en immobilier d`entreprise. Nous suggérons que le risque peut être évaluer à travers une somme de mesure de risque : en premier lieu dans une approche globale de la volatilité, ce que peut nous proposer une analyse de portefeuille, puis dans une approche plus fine, que peut nous donner la prime de risque d`un marché bureau. Notre travail doctoral se propose d’adapter les outils hérités du monde financier à l’évaluation du risque dans les principaux marchés de bureau Européen. Notre thèse sera rédigée en anglais et la question de recherche s`articulera autour de trois grands axes que nous illustrons sous forme d’articles. / The real estate asset class is tangible, heterogeneous and illiquid. It gives a specific investment universe that needs to be understood by investors, because the uncertainties created by this universe compose the risk of real estate investment. We suggest modelling risks across a sum of risk unit appraisal, on one hand, in constructing portfolio analysis, and on the other hand, through the office market risk premium modelling. Our doctoral study proposes to adapt financial theorems to risk modelling in the main European office markets. Our thesis will be written in Englishand its body will be articulated around three axes whereby those will be illustrated under the form of article.
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Liquidity measurements and the return-liquidity relationship : empirical evidence from Germany, the UK, the US and ChinaBo, Yibo January 2017 (has links)
With reference to the existing literature on liquidity, three key questions have emerged during the last several decades: (i) How to measure liquidity in the most efficient way? (ii) What is the empirical pattern in the relation between market liquidity and stock returns? (iii) What are the determinants of the changes in the Return-Liquidity Relationship? This thesis take the above three questions as its principal focus and studies them by undertaking three separate empirical chapters, using a substantial dataset that covers all the listed firms in these four global economies – Germany, the UK, the US and China from 2001 to 2013. The empirical results imply the following: (i) The Transaction-Cost based liquidity measures, particularly the Quoted Proportional Spread, should be regarded as the most representative liquidity measurement. (ii) There is no evidence consistent with a fixed empirical pattern in the Return-Liquidity Relationship across these four countries as market liquidity is preferred in both Germany and UK, while the opposite results have been obtained for the Chinese stock market. That is, higher market leads to higher stock returns in these two European countries as the higher market liquidity facilitates capital movements to more efficient investments. However in China, the huge number of individual investors generates higher market liquidity through speculative trading rather than as a result of value-related investments, which heightens market risk and thus results in a decrease in stock prices. (iii) There is weak evidence that stock market returns have positive determinant effects on both MLIs (the market impact of liquidity on stock returns) and FLIs, (the firm-level impact of liquidity on stock returns) Return-Liquidity relation on market and firm level respectively. While only FLIs are positively correlated with stock market volatility and the inflation rate and negatively affected by the short-term interest rate.
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[en] AN ANALYSIS OF BOOK-TO-MARKET, BANKRUPTCY RISK AND RETURN FACTORS IN THE STOCK BRAZILIAN MARKET / [pt] UMA ANÁLISE DOS FATORES BOOK-TO-MARKET, RISCO DE FALÊNCIA E RETORNO PARA O MERCADO ACIONÁRIO BRASILEIROPRISCILLA VANESSA GUERRERO PAZOS 24 February 2016 (has links)
[pt] O presente estudo analisa a relação entre as variáveis Book-to-Market, risco
de falência e retornos no mercado acionário brasileiro para um total de 168 firmas
da Bovespa no período de Julho 2009 até Junho 2014. Os resultados demonstram
que na medida em que a probabilidade de falência e o Book-to-Market aumentam,
as empresas brasileiras pagam um prêmio de risco maior. Apesar disto, o fator
Book-to-Market quando analisado separadamente, não consegue mostrar uma
relação direta com o prêmio de risco, isto é, empresas com alto Book-to-Market
(empresas de valor) não necessariamente pagam retornos maiores que as empresas
com baixo Book-to-Market (empresas de crescimento). Isto contraria estudos
feitos em mercados financeiros desenvolvidos, onde tal relação é estatisticamente
significante. / [en] This study analyzes the relationship between the variables Book-to-Market,
bankruptcy risk and returns in the Brazilian stock market for a total of 168
Bovespa firms in the period from July 2009 to June 2014. The results demonstrate
that as the probability of failure and the Book-to-Market increase, Brazilian
companies pay a higher risk premium. Despite this, it was found that the Book-to-
Market factor when analyzed separately, is not able to show a direct relationship
to the risk premium, that is companies with high Book-to-Market (value
companies) do not necessarily pay higher returns than companies with low Bookto-
Market (growth companies). This contradicts previous studies done in
developed financial markets, where such relationship is statistically significant.
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[en] EVOLUTION AND MODELLING OF THE BRAZILIAN TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES / [pt] EVOLUÇÃO E MODELAGEM DA ESTRUTURA A TERMO DE JUROS BRASILEIRAMARCELO CAMARAO GANEM 11 April 2012 (has links)
[pt] A modelagem da estrutura a termo de juros tem atraído atenção crescente de
pesquisadores e profissionais de mercado ao longo dos últimos anos, por seu papel central
em Finanças como balizadora do custo de capital. A oferta de produtos atrelados à
dinâmica de juros vem evoluindo continuamente, tanto em volumes negociados quanto
em sofisticação das estruturas, sendo acompanhada por modelos cada vez mais
complexos de análise e apreçamento. A alta dimensionalidade do objeto de estudo exige o
uso de um ferramental matemático bastante desenvolvido e diferente do utilizado para a
análise de outros ativos (ações, por exemplo). Como resultado, temos diversos modelos
de curva, não necessariamente reconciliáveis sob um quadro teórico unificado, e alguns
eventualmente distantes da prática de mercados específicos. No Brasil o problema de
avaliação da ETTJ é ainda mais complexo, tanto pelo rápido amadurecimento do mercado
de renda fixa nos últimos dez anos, quanto pela herança de sua evolução histórica, ainda
presente nas funções de resposta dos agentes locais. Possivelmente, a maior distorção do
ambiente econômico-financeiro brasileiro seja o nível extremamente alto das taxas de
juros de curto prazo, apesar dos avanços estruturais recentes. A disparidade em relação às
taxas praticadas em economias desenvolvidas - ou mesmo em comparação a mercados
emergentes com níveis similares de risco soberano – cria uma série de disfunções que
afetam virtualmente todos os segmentos da economia real. O objetivo desta Tese foi
mapear (e utilizar para apreçamento de ativos e derivativos) algumas particularidades de
comportamento da ETTJ brasileira, eventualmente não compartilhadas por curvas de
outras economias, portanto usando uma abordagem relativamente segregada das
principais correntes de pesquisa em modelagem de renda fixa. O trabalho está dividido
em duas fases: a primeira exploratória, através da aplicação de técnicas de estatística
multivariada, Teoria de Carteiras e instrumentos de avaliação de risco para traçar a
evolução histórica da curva de juros brasileira e seus prêmios e preços de risco associados
a fatores endógenos e exógenos. A segunda parte da pesquisa faz uso das evidências
estatísticas levantadas, incorporando-as a priori em um modelo semiparamétrico de
apreçamento de derivativos, combinando elementos básicos de Teoria da Informação. Sua
aderência e representatividade foram testadas sobre uma ampla base de opções de futuros
de DI, sendo comparadas aos resultados de um modelo tradicional de mercado (BGM). A
Tese conclui que a dinâmica da ETTJ brasileira entre 2001 e 2010 deve incorporar no seu
processo de modelagem uma perspectiva histórica de percepção de riscos, aproximando a
relação entre abordagens clássicas de apreçamento e a prática corrente dos agentes locais. / [en] Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a task that has
been attracting a crescent number of researchers and practitioners in quantitative
finance, given its importance as the main driver for the economic cost of capital.
The volume of traded interest rate sensitive assets and derivatives has grown
significantly over the last few years, followed by increasingly complex models of
pricing and analysis. The high dimensionality of the object of study requires the
use of mathematical tools quite different from standard stock market models,
resulting in several approaches that eventually lack a unified framework, flexible
enough to capture the dynamics of some particular markets. In Brazil the yield
curve analysis is even more complex, due to the fast increase of fixed income
products over the last ten years, and the historical shifts in the monetary policy
conduction. The risk premium in the Brazilian term-structure of interest rates is
partially driven by some specific defensive behavior, following past monetary
decisions. Until 2008, the Brazilian Central Bank has primarily dealt with
domestic and external crises by raising the short term rate to restrain capital
outflows, generating a well-known asymmetry in the market’s response functions
to risk aversion. Therefore, the traditional parameterization of risk based on mean
and variance estimators fails to capture the market price of risk assigned to higher
order moments of bond returns across several maturities. The main purpose of this
thesis was to get a broad picture of the singularities of the Brazilian term-structure
dynamics, and use it to propose alternative approaches to interest rate derivatives
pricing – particularly, embodying the third and fourth (pseudo) moments of bond
returns into the modeling cycle. The work is divided in two parts: the first
exploratory, applying multivariate statistics, portfolio theory and risk management
tools to trace the historical evolution of the Brazilian yield curve, and plot the
timeline of risk premia and prices of risk linked to exogenous and endogenous
factors. The second part of the research uses the statistical evidence gathered as
input to a semi-parametric model for pricing derivatives, based on elements of
Information Theory. The model was back-tested over an extensive database of
local interest rate options, and compared to the results of a traditional market
model (BGM). The thesis concludes that the dynamics of the Brazilian yield curve
is in part driven by its historical heritage, and endogenous risk factors including
moments of bond returns of third and fourth orders are relevant for the premia
structure and evolution. Bringing these elements into a modeling process might
partially bridge the gap between classical curve models and the local pricing
practice.
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Implied risk premium in the soybean future contractsBisso, Claudio Roberto Samanez January 2017 (has links)
Neste artigo, avaliamos o prêmio de risco implícito incorporado nos preços futuros de soja através de um modelo de dois fatore bem conhecido na literatura de commodities. Como os preços da soja na última década têm flutuado muito, primeiro examinamos as quebras estruturais na variância/volatilidade para obter uma proxy para as mudanças nos prêmios de risco. Em seguida, calibramos o modelo de dois fatores em cada subperíodo de toda a série de acordo com as quebras encontradas. Em seqüência, calculamos o prêmio de risco implícito pelo modelo. Constatamos que o prêmio de risco é variável no tempo, não apenas no sinal, mas também na magnitude. Além disso, quando os preços estavam subindo, a posição dominante era dos produtores protegendo-se com um prêmio de risco positivo, enquanto quando os preços estavam caíndo, consumidores se protegiam com um prémio de risco negativo. / In this paper we evaluate the implied risk premium embedded in soybean future prices through a well-known two-factor model in the commodity literature. Since soybean prices in the past decade have fluctuated greatly, we first examine the structural breaks in variance/volatility to obtain a proxy for risk premiums changes. Then we calibrate the two-factor model in each sub-period of the entire series according to the breaks found. In sequence we compute the risk premium implied by the model. We find that the risk premium is time-varying, not only in sign but also in magnitude. Furthermore, when prices were rising prevailing position was of producers hedging with a positive risk premium, while when prices were falling consumers hedged with a negative risk premium.
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Implied risk premium in the soybean future contractsBisso, Claudio Roberto Samanez January 2017 (has links)
Neste artigo, avaliamos o prêmio de risco implícito incorporado nos preços futuros de soja através de um modelo de dois fatore bem conhecido na literatura de commodities. Como os preços da soja na última década têm flutuado muito, primeiro examinamos as quebras estruturais na variância/volatilidade para obter uma proxy para as mudanças nos prêmios de risco. Em seguida, calibramos o modelo de dois fatores em cada subperíodo de toda a série de acordo com as quebras encontradas. Em seqüência, calculamos o prêmio de risco implícito pelo modelo. Constatamos que o prêmio de risco é variável no tempo, não apenas no sinal, mas também na magnitude. Além disso, quando os preços estavam subindo, a posição dominante era dos produtores protegendo-se com um prêmio de risco positivo, enquanto quando os preços estavam caíndo, consumidores se protegiam com um prémio de risco negativo. / In this paper we evaluate the implied risk premium embedded in soybean future prices through a well-known two-factor model in the commodity literature. Since soybean prices in the past decade have fluctuated greatly, we first examine the structural breaks in variance/volatility to obtain a proxy for risk premiums changes. Then we calibrate the two-factor model in each sub-period of the entire series according to the breaks found. In sequence we compute the risk premium implied by the model. We find that the risk premium is time-varying, not only in sign but also in magnitude. Furthermore, when prices were rising prevailing position was of producers hedging with a positive risk premium, while when prices were falling consumers hedged with a negative risk premium.
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Eficiência do mercado implícito de câmbio a termo no Brasil. / Efficiency of the implied forward exchange market in Brazil.Guilherme Maia Garcia 10 October 2003 (has links)
Neste estudo, é testada empiricamente a hipótese de eficiência no mercado a termo de câmbio brasileiro, para o período recente de flutuação cambial. A freqüência dos dados é diária, e as taxas a termo são construídas com base no mercado de swaps. É utilizado um método de estimação semi-paramétrico e estatisticamente robusto no contexto de distribuições com caudas pesadas. Este método ainda permite que se trabalhe com séries não-estacionárias no nível (sem diferenciar) e com observações sobrepostas (quando o prazo do contrato a termo excede o intervalo entre as observações da amostra). A hipótese de eficiência é rejeitada quando se usa o método robusto; por outro lado, um método mais sensível à presença de outliers falha em rejeitar a hipótese. Por fim, são discutidas algumas questões relativas à hipótese de eficiência, com especial ênfase para a questão de se a rejeição da hipótese é devida à presença de um prêmio de risco cambial, da ineficiência de mercado ou de ambos os fatores. Os resultados sugerem que o mercado de câmbio a termo no Brasil não é eficiente. / In this dissertation, the forward exchange market efficiency hypothesis is tested for the recent floating regime in Brazil. We use daily frequency data, with implied forward rates based on the swap market. The statistical approach is a semiparametric procedure which is statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails and allows for non-stationarity of the data and overlapping observations (when the interval between observations is shorter than the futures maturity). The efficiency hypothesis is rejected when the robust procedure is used; still, a distinct procedure more sensible to the presence of outliers fails to reject the hypothesis. At last, we discuss some issues regarding the efficiency hypothesis, emphasizing the question of whether the rejection of the efficiency hypothesis denounces the presence of a risk premium, of market inefficiency or both. The results suggest the Brazilian forward exchange market is not efficient.
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Three Essays on Asset PricingWang, Zhiguang 14 July 2009 (has links)
In this dissertation, I investigate three related topics on asset pricing: the consumption-based asset pricing under long-run risks and fat tails, the pricing of VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) options and the market price of risk embedded in stock returns and stock options. These three topics are fully explored in Chapter II through IV. Chapter V summarizes the main conclusions. In Chapter II, I explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. I estimate the structural parameters of the proposed model by maximum likelihood. I find that the stochastic volatility model with fat tails can, without resorting to high risk aversion, generate implied risk premium, expected risk free rate and their volatilities comparable to the magnitudes observed in data. In Chapter III, I examine the pricing performance of VIX option models. The contention that simpler-is-better is supported by the empirical evidence using actual VIX option market data. I find that no model has small pricing errors over the entire range of strike prices and times to expiration. In general, Whaley’s Black-like option model produces the best overall results, supporting the simpler-is-better contention. However, the Whaley model does under/overprice out-of-the-money call/put VIX options, which is contrary to the behavior of stock index option pricing models. In Chapter IV, I explore risk pricing through a model of time-changed Lévy processes based on the joint evidence from individual stock options and underlying stocks. I specify a pricing kernel that prices idiosyncratic and systematic risks. This approach to examining risk premia on stocks deviates from existing studies. The empirical results show that the market pays positive premia for idiosyncratic and market jump-diffusion risk, and idiosyncratic volatility risk. However, there is no consensus on the premium for market volatility risk. It can be positive or negative. The positive premium on idiosyncratic risk runs contrary to the implications of traditional capital asset pricing theory.
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Kalkulation barwertiger Risikoprämien unter Integration von Adressenausfall- und Residualrisiken: Dargestellt am Beispiel des Kreditrisikotransfers von KonsortialkreditenKarmann, Franz 03 July 2013 (has links)
Ziel der Arbeit ist - ausgehend vom Kreditrisikotransfers von internationalen Konsortialkrediten - die Darstellung der Kalkulation barwertiger Kreditrisikoprämien unter Integration von
Adressenausfall- und Residualrisiken. Zentrale Aspekte sind die Identifizierung, Bewertung und
Integration von Residualrisiken. Residualrisiken entstehen im Spannungsfeld des Risikotransfers zwischen Kreditgeber (=Risikogeber) und Risikonehmer. Das Adressenausfallrisiko ist der Kernbestandteil des integrierten Kalkulationsmodells. Basierend auf dem versicherungstechnischen Modell zur Kalkulation des Adressenausfallrisikos werden die Bestandteile erwarteter und unerwarteter Verlust berücksichtigt. Das integrierte
Kalkulationsmodell hat die Nachhaltigkeit des Risikotransfers als Nebenbedingung. Die faire Risikoprämie, die als Summe aus erwartetem Verlust, unerwartetem Verlust und auf den Risikonehmer entfallenden Residualrisiken berechnet wird, muss der Risikogeber aus der „all-in“
Marge des Konsortialkredites bedienen.
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