The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is an important source of funds for firms and provides opportunities for investors. However, the economic boom of 1990-1996, the Asian Economic Crisis and the recession of 1997-2002 have affected the performance of firms listed at SET. The dividend policies of listed firms have also been influenced by these fluctuations in the business cycle.This study investigates the phenomenon of disappearing dividends in the developing capital market of Thailand. It adopts a similar methodology to Fama and French (2001) by classifying listed firms in line with changes in their dividend polices over the period 1990 to 2002. More specifically, the study explores the characteristics of firms which pay dividends, non-payers, former payers and firms which have never paid dividends. These characteristics include profitability, investment opportunities and firm size. The analysis uses firm characteristics for predicting the dividend policies of listed firms. Changes in firm characteristics and the propensity to pay dividends are identified in this process.The analysis suggests that firms which pay dividends tend to be large and highly profitable, although they possess low investment opportunities. The study also suggests that the characteristics of firms which paid dividends changed slightly before the crisis of 1997 and changed markedly during the crisis. However, after the crisis (1998-2002) the characteristics of firms are similar to those observed before the crisis. This result is attributed to the fact that some firms have resumed paying dividends after briefly ceasing this payment during the crisis. More importantly, when firm characteristics are held constant, the propensity to pay dividends of listed firms declined slightly before the crisis and declined strongly after the crisis. Consequently, the majority of new firms and many mature firms do not pay dividends.The findings of this study are consistent with the results of Fama and French (2001), particularly with regard to the characteristics of firms and changes in the propensity to pay dividends. However, this study extends the knowledge on the phenomenon of disappearing dividends by focussing on a developing economy, Thailand. Finally, this study suggests that investors should consider the characteristics of firms, changes in these characteristics and the propensity to pay dividends when identifying opportunities for investment.

Consumption-based asset pricing models (CCAPMs) connect asset returns with consumption growth. The poor empirical performance of early consumption models has led to the development of a number of more sophisticated models. Nevertheless, most models focus on the US markets, and very few CCAPMs have been examined in the Australian context. Given the importance of CCAPMs, the purpose of this thesis is to examine the connections between asset returns in the Australian market and consumption variables. The thesis also extends the analysis to examine CCAPMs in an international setting. There are four essays in this thesis. The first essay undertakes a thorough investigation of the empirical support for consumption-based asset pricing models in the context of several major Australian asset classes. Using the generalised method of moments (GMM) econometric approach, my study begins with the classic CCAPM originally tested by Hansen and Singleton (1982, 1983). The empirical analysis is then extended to test more-recent specifications of the CCAPM, including the habit-formation models of Abel (1990) and Campbell and Cochrane (2000), and the time nonseparable model of Epstein and Zin (1991). For each of the models examined, the results provide cautious support for the CCAPM especially in relation to equity returns. Size-sorted portfolios (in particular, portfolios of small stocks) and fixed-income returns cause the CCAPM restriction to be rejected. It also presents results that raise questions over the benefits from extensions of the classic CCAPM, such as habit-persistence and recursive utility models. The second essay studies the empirical performance of a linearised version of the classic CCAPM in the Australian market. The studies of Faff and Oliver (1998) and Faff (1998) are extended by employing more recent data and examining 25 size/BM portfolios as well as industry portfolios. It is found that by using the lagged portfolio returns, the linearised CCAPM for both industry portfolios and 25 size/BM portfolios is generally not rejected. The third essay empirically examines conditional CCAPMs where the conditioning variables are consumption factors such as the consumption-wealth ratio proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a, 2001b), the surplus consumption ratio (Campbell and Cochrane, 1999), and the labour income to consumption ratio (Santos and Veronesi, 2006). Here long-horizon return predictability tests are conducted using these factors and cross-sectional tests on whether these factors are priced using both 25 Size/BM portfolios and industry portfolios. Utilising the Fama-MacBeth (1973) procedure, it is found that conditional models perform better than unconditional models. However, these conditional models do not outperform the Fama-French three-factor model. The fourth essay tests the world CCAPMs. Using data for 17 countries, the following are tested: the classic world CCAPM under the assumption of complete international markets integration, the heterogeneous world CCAPM under the framework of Constantinides and Duffie (1996) and the world habit models. The finding here is that a large risk aversion is needed to resolve the equity premium puzzle for the classic world CCAPM; however, adding a cross-country consumption dispersion factor into the model significantly lowers the coefficients of consumption risk aversion. Unconditional linear factor models are also studied where it is found that the world consumption growth and the dispersion of the cross-sectional consumption growth provide some explanatory basis for the variation in the cross section of excess stock returns. More sophisticated consumption models perform better than the classic world CCAPM. This thesis makes a worthwhile contribution to the research literature on CCAPMs in Australia which up to now has been limited. It performs out-of-sample tests of major CCAPMs utilising several Australian asset classes. It not only provides some insights into the return predictability of the aggregate market index in Australia, but also presents some evidence of the explanation of the cross section of stock returns using consumption variables. Further, this thesis adds to the understanding of the

This diploma thesis was aimed at analysing the investment strategies on the American stock market. The main aim was to evaluate the market efficiency, to analyse various strategies and to select the most appropriate one according to the assessed form of the market efficiency. Firstly, the weak-form efficiency was validated by correlation and runs tests. Subsequently, the methods of technical and fundamental analysis were applied. The final part is focused on creating the investment portfolio, which is also considered the most suitable strategy.

This thesis deals with the analysis of the profitability and risk of selected sectors on a stock exchange. For analysis of the industry period of 5 years was selected. This period begins in January 2010 and ends in December 2014. Data for the analysis were obtained from the New York Stock Exchange. Ratings industry is based on key indicators of profitability and risk. The profitability of the sector was calculated average and total. The risk was assessed by standard deviation, variance and coefficient of variation. The next step was to evaluate the sector by pricing model of capital asset. The coefficients alpha and beta were obtained by linear regression. MS Excel software was used for calculation. The first part describes the capital market, its subjects and the stock exchanges. For assessing the shares the basic formulas for calculating profitability, risk and CAPM are described in the theoretical part. Methodology paper describes the procedure for evaluating stocks and sectors. There is described a precise procedure of calculating individual indicators. In the third section the results of the analyzed sectors are evaluated. There is described the risk assessment of the industry and the future development of the sector. In conclusion the capital market and forecast of its development are evaluated.

A presente investigação científica discorre acerca da análise comparativa dos segmentos Tradicional, Nível 1, Nível 2 e Novo Mercado da bolsa de valores brasileira. As bases do estudo estão calcadas nas relações entre retornos, risco e prêmios de risco em cada segmento. Para o alcance desse objetivo, foram organizadas carteiras teóricas, cada uma composta por ações de empresas listadas nos segmentos citados do mercado à vista. O intervalo de tempo delimitador dos dados amostrais compreende o período de janeiro de 2005 a dezembro de 2010 e possui características cíclicas - típicas desse ambiente de negócios - de crescimento, de queda brusca provocada pelos efeitos da crise de 2008 e de recuperação lenta na valorização dos preços das ações. Isso enriquece as conclusões ao se examinar comparativamente as referidas carteiras teóricas à luz de ciclos distintos do risco sistemático. As conclusões corroboram parcialmente os fundamentos da governança corporativa ao evidenciar que, de todos os portfolios compostos por empresas que adotam as boas práticas de governança, somente o Novo Mercado de fato gera redução das incertezas, acarretando a diminuição do risco e elevados retornos, absolutos e excessivos, relativamente ao portfolio composto por empresas listadas no Tradicional e à média do mercado, a qual é dada pelo Ibovespa. Os níveis 1 e 2, apesar das empresas que os compõem adotarem regras de governança corporativa, não obtêm resultados de acordo com as expectativas geradas justamente por desenvolverem processos de maior transparência e respeito aos acionistas. As evidências apontam que as razões do fato supramencionado residem no estágio inicial de desenvolvimento no qual se encontram o mercado de ações brasileiro e a economia nacional pós-Plano Real, além de haver número reduzido de empresas listadas principalmente nos níveis 1 e 2. Análises futuras poderão estar mais bem alicerçadas a partir da expansão do mercado, a qual ainda é tímida, embora sejam inquestionáveis seus resultados econômico-financeiros na melhoria do bem-estar social. / This scientific investigation centers on a comparative analysis of the Traditional, Level 1, Level 2 and Novo Mercado listing segments of the Brazilian stock exchange. The study is based on the relationships among the return, risk and risk premium of each segment. For this, theoretical portfolios were created, with each composed of the stocks of companies listed on these segments in the spot market. The time interval of the sample data consists of the period from January 2005 to December 2010 and features the cyclical characteristics (which are typical in this business environment) of growth, the sharp declines caused by the 2008 crisis and the slow recovery in stock prices, with the comparison of these portfolios in the context of the different cycles of systemic risk enriching the conclusions. The conclusions partially corroborate the fundamentals of corporate governance by demonstrating that of all the portfolios formed by companies that adopt good governance practices, only the Novo Mercado in fact generates a reduction in uncertainties, with lower risks and higher absolute and excessive returns in relation to the portfolio formed by companies listed in the Traditional segment and to the industry average, as indicated by the Ibovespa. Although their component companies adopt more stringent corporate governance rules, the Level 1 and 2 segments have not obtained results that are consistent with the expectations they have generated by their adoption of processes marked by greater transparency and respect for shareholders. The evidence suggests that the reasons for this are the initial stage of development of Brazil’s stock market and the country’s economy following the implementation of the Real Plan, as well as the low number of listed companies in the Level 1 and 2 segments. Future analyses could enjoy more solid support due to the market’s growth, which remains timid. However, the financial results unquestionably contribute to improving the well-being of society.

Submitted by Victor Moitinho (victormoitinho@yahoo.com.br) on 2014-01-14T14:09:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Victor Moitinho v9.pdf: 1089073 bytes, checksum: ca0ceba25f705be9da422404bf971d61 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2014-02-18T20:28:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Victor Moitinho v9.pdf: 1089073 bytes, checksum: ca0ceba25f705be9da422404bf971d61 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-02-20T12:51:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Victor Moitinho v9.pdf: 1089073 bytes, checksum: ca0ceba25f705be9da422404bf971d61 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-11-27 / Neste trabalho busca-se investigar empiricamente, no caso brasileiro, o comportamento da medida de risco de Foster e Hart, sua capacidade de estimação de retornos e se ela pode ser usada como indicador do momento do mercado. Esta medida é de fácil assimilação e cálculo, respeita axiomas de coerência, sendo indiferente a aversão ao risco dos agentes e mensurada na mesma unidade dos retornos. Encontram-se evidências de que o risco reage a momentos de estresse do mercado e da existência de um relacionamento positivo com retornos futuros. / This paper aims to investigate empirically in the Brazilian case the behavior of the Foster and Hart measure of riskiness, its ability to estimate stock returns and whether it can work as an index to the market situation. The measure is easy to calculate and understand, it respects coherence axioms, it is independent of the agents risk aversion and it is measured in the same unit as returns. We find evidence that this measure of riskiness reacts to stressful moments of the stock market and that there is a positive relationship between risk and future returns.

Submitted by Rodrigo Geraldes (santorogeraldes@gmail.com) on 2015-01-07T20:21:13Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Rodrigo Geraldes.pdf: 932680 bytes, checksum: 9210f1d5ccf8429d91b3f739768aa595 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2015-01-07T20:29:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Rodrigo Geraldes.pdf: 932680 bytes, checksum: 9210f1d5ccf8429d91b3f739768aa595 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-01-08T13:33:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Rodrigo Geraldes.pdf: 932680 bytes, checksum: 9210f1d5ccf8429d91b3f739768aa595 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-18 / Este trabalho busca compreender melhor as fontes de retorno de ações de valor e crescimento e os determinantes da convergência do indicador preço sobre valor patrimonial (P/B). Foram criados seis carteiras durante o período de 2001 a 2013, sendo elas classificadas de acordo com o seu múltiplo (P/B) e sua capitalização de mercado. O retorno divido entre dividendos e ganhos de capital, este foi dividido em: (1) crescimento do valor patrimonial, (2) convergência do indicador preço sobre valor patrimonial (P/B), devido a reversão de rentabilidade, crescimento e retorno esperado e (3) efeito drift. Também buscou-se determinar quais os principais fatores macro que afetam a convergência do indicador P/B. Foi realizada uma regressão linear múltipla utilizando como variáveis independentes a valorização do Ibovespa, PIB, juros reais, surpresa inflacionária e dummies (small, growth e value). A carteira big growth apresentou o melhor desempenho, seguido da carteira small value. O retorno de dividendos foi mais importante para os portfólios big em relação à small e para as carteiras value em relação às growth. Ao analisar o ganho de capital, verificou-se que o crescimento do valor patrimonial é maior para empresas growth, enquanto o efeito da convergência é mais importante para empresas valor. Verificou-se que o retorno do Ibovespa, surpresa inflacionária e o baixo valor de mercado influenciam positivamente a convergência do P/B. Já o pagamento os juros reais, PIB e a dummy growth influenciam negativamente. / This work seeks to better understand the sources of return in value and growth stocks, also to understand the main determinants of the convergence in price-to-book ratios. Six portfolios were created during 2001 to 2013 according to their P/B ratio and market cap. The return was divided between dividends and capital gains, the last was broken into: (1) growth of book value per share, (2) convergence in price-to-book ratios due to mean reversal in profitability, growth and expected returns, and (3) Drift effect. We also tried to determine the main factors that affect the convergence of P/B. Multiple regression was performed using as independent variables the returns of Ibovespa, GDP, interest rates, unexpected inflation and dummies (small, growth and value). The big growth portfolio was the best performance, followed by the small value portfolio. Dividends return was more important for big than value portfolios. When analyzing capital gain returns, it was found that book value growth is more important for growth companies, while the convergence of P/B is higher for value. It was found that the returns of Ibovespa, unexpected inflation and low market cap have a positive influence on convergence. On the other hand, interest rates, GDP and growth dummy have a negative influence.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-02T21:42:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 SERGIO LUIZ NASCIMENTO.pdf: 981514 bytes, checksum: 2b19c2940a97c73dc593c53833e64185 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-06 / In the contemporary moment, there is an intense movement of financial capital, either because of mergers and acquisitions of companies, is the natural expansion of capitalism itself, thus leading organizations to seek alternative financing at lower costs, when it considered rates interest charged by financial institutions. Concurrent with this, monetary authorities seek to reduce circumstantially interest rates that drive the economy in order to to attract new investment in production and still preserve those existing. So even paradoxical, the reduction in interest rates promulgated by the authorities, does not display the same reduction rate from those practiced by the market. This leads individuals, whether or not investment managers to seek alternative investments that provide monetary gains in excess of those which are based on rates set by monetary authorities. Combining the search for resources by organizations and the pursuit of higher monetary gains by investors, the stock market becomes a relevant alternative. In order to achieve the best results in this environment, no need to use templates and other tools that provide the best balance between risk and return given that every investor emits at least some risk aversion. Several instruments are available to perform these relationships, however, many of them not available to the investor on the condition of an individual. And by this point, the model developed by Edwin Elton and Martin Gruber appears as an alternative to any investor, whether by their construction, whether for its operation. / Atualmente, nota-se uma intensa movimentação de capitais financeiros, seja por conta de fusões e incorporações de empresas, seja pela expansão natural do próprio capitalismo, levando então as organizações a buscarem alternativas de financiamento com menores custos, isso quando consideradas as taxas de juros praticadas por instituições financeiras. Concomitantemente a isso, autoridades monetárias, circunstancialmente buscam a redução das taxas de juros que norteiam a economia, no intuito de se atrair novos investimentos produtivos e ainda preservar aqueles existentes. De maneira até paradoxal, a redução das taxas de juros promulgada por autoridades, não exibe a mesma proporção de redução daquelas praticadas pelo mercado. Este aspecto leva os indivíduos, sejam eles gestores de investimentos ou não, a buscarem alternativas de investimentos que proporcionem ganhos monetários superiores àqueles que são fundamentados nas taxas estabelecidas pelas autoridades monetárias. Conciliando a busca de recursos por organizações e a busca por maiores ganhos monetários por parte dos investidores, o mercado de capitais se torna uma alternativa relevante. De modo a conseguir os melhores resultados nesse ambiente, há necessidade de se utilizar modelos e outros instrumentos que propiciem a melhor relação entre risco e retorno, haja vista que todo investidor emite ao menos alguma aversão ao risco. Vários são os instrumentos disponíveis para realizar essas relações, entretanto, muitos deles não acessíveis ao investidor na condição de pessoa física. E mediante esse aspecto, o modelo desenvolvido por Edwin Elton e Martin Gruber surge como alternativa a qualquer investidor, seja por suas características construtivas, seja por sua operacionalidade.

This thesis is dedicated to the stock markets issue. Its main aim was to assess the effectiveness of the stock market and choose an appropriate investment strategy. To this purpose, the 5 industries of U.S. stock market were chosen, which served as a data base for all applied methods. The thesis presents the results of correlation and runs tests verifying the weak form of market efficiency, the results of fundamental analysis and of active strategies simulation as well. The final part is focused on creating of investment portfolio, which was chosen as the most appropriate investment strategy of the refenrence data set.

In this work was evaluated the effectiveness of artificial neural networks in trading on the stock markets. The subject of the work was the process of optimizing parameters of artificial neural networks, the resulting predictive efficiency was determined on the basis of the application being optimized parameters of neural networks.