Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:26:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Nilton Tadeu Nascimento Flores.pdf: 1106897 bytes, checksum: 863782b155da8eb88175a1a22718c9c9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-08-11 / In this study, we analyzed the relationship between the stock market and inflation in the period 1980 to 2009, dividing the study into two stages: before and after implementation of the Plan Real. The study was conducted in the light of the international researches like, for examples, Bernard and Frecka (1987), Luintel and Paudyal (2001), Luintel and Paudyal (2006) and Araújo (2007) and others that analyzed the relationship between stock market and inflation. We based our research in the work of Bodie (1975), which examined the efficiency of the stock market portfolio to hedge unexpected inflation in the U.S. market, using a series of historical data from 1953 to 1972. Our results did not confirm the efficiency of the stock market portfolio as hedge against inflation. / No presente trabalho, analisamos a relação entre o Mercado de Ações e a Inflação no período de 1980 a 2009, dividindo o estudo em duas etapas: antes e depois da implantação do Plano Real. O estudo foi realizado à luz das pesquisas internacionais como de Bernard e Frecka (1987), Luintel e Paudyal (2001), Luintel e Paudyal (2006), Araújo (2007) e outros pesquisadores que analisaram a relação entre mercado acionário e inflação. Baseamo-nos no trabalho de Bodie (1975), que estudou a eficiência da carteira do mercado de ações como hedge para a inflação inesperada no mercado norte-americano, utilizando uma série histórica de dados de 1953 a 1972. Os resultados obtidos não confirmaram que o mercado de ações é uma forma eficiente de hedge contra a inflação.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-17T14:52:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Allisson Jorge Silva Almeida.pdf: 1395402 bytes, checksum: 0fa53d91ae198b228fa0487fa3a73e4a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-01-20 / This work aims to present a prediction model for the stock market based on fuzzy logic that contributes to the negotiators of this order in the simulation of operations prior to before their implementation. To achieve this purpose, we used historical data of São Paulo Stock Exchange to perform the mathematical calculations needed regarding the technical indicators used, RSI - Relative Strength Index, MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence and the Beta Index. The following data were transformed into linguistic fuzzy variables yielding the data set to be applied to Fuzzy Control System. Two real assets were used in companies, and PETR4 VALE5 for the simulations. The results showed that the model provides results consistent with the changes in the current market. Thus, it can be used as a support tool in decision making in the stock market. / Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar um modelo de predição para o mercado acionário baseado na Lógica Fuzzy que contribua com os negociadores desta ordem na simulação das operações antes de sua concretização. Para atingir esse propósito, foi utilizado dados históricos da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo para realização dos cálculos matemáticos necessários referente aos indicadores técnicos utilizados, RSI - Relative Strenght Index, MACD - Moving Average Convergence/Divergence e o Índice Beta. A seguir, os dados foram transformados em variáveis linguísticas originando o conjunto de dados fuzzy para serem aplicados ao Sistema de Controle Fuzzy. Foram utilizados dois ativos reais de empresas, PETR4 e VALE5 para as simulações. Os resultados demonstraram que o modelo fornece resultados coerentes com a movimentação do mercado em operação. Dessa forma, podendo ser utilizado como uma ferramenta de apoio na tomada de decisão no mercado de ações.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-17T14:52:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_MilsonLouseiroLima.pdf: 4206975 bytes, checksum: 68293f1f1c80ce84d0573111677ff097 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-06 / FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA E AO DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTIFICO E TECNOLÓGICO DO MARANHÃO / Predicting the behavior of stocks in the stock market is a challenging task, a lot of times related to unknown factors or influenced by very distinct natures of variables, which can range from high-profile news to the collective sentiment, expressed in publications on social networks. Such market volatility may represent considerable financial losses for investors. In order to forestall such variations other mechanisms to predict the behavior of assets in the stock market have been proposed, based on pre-existing indicator data. Such mechanisms only analyze statistical data, not considering the collective human sentiment. This work aims to develop a model to predict the stock market, based on analysis of sentiment and it will make use of techniques of artificial intelligence as natural language processing (PLN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) to predict the active behavior. However, it should be emphasized that this model is intended to be an aid tool in the decision-making process that involves buying and selling shares on the stock market. / Predizer o comportamento das ações na bolsa de valores é uma tarefa desafiadora, muita vezes relacionada a fatores desconhecidos ou influenciados por variáveis de naturezas bem distintas, que podem ir desde notícias de grande repercussão até o sentimento coletivo, expresso em publicações de redes sociais. Tal volatilidade do mercado pode representar perdas financeiras consideráveis para os investidores. No intuito de se antecipar a tais variações já foram propostos outros mecanismos para predizer o comportamento de ativos na bolsa de valores, baseados em dados de indicadores pré-existentes. Tais mecanismos analisam apenas dados estatísticos, não considerando o sentimento humano coletivo. Este trabalho tem como finalidade desenvolver um modelo para predição da bolsa de valores, baseado na mineração de opinião e, para isso, fará uso de técnicas de Inteligência artificial como processamento de linguagem natural(PLN) e Máquinas de Vetor de Suporte(SVM) para predizer o comportamento do ativo. No entanto, convém ressaltar que o referido modelo tem como finalidade ser uma ferramenta de auxílio no processo de tomada de decisão que envolve a compra e venda de ações na bolsa de valores.

O coeficiente beta, definido no contexto do modelo de avaliação de ativos denominado Capital Asset Pricing Model, tem sido amplamente utilizado no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro. Sua aplicação tem sido importante não apenas no âmbito das revisões tarifárias conduzidas pelo órgão regulador, mas também para análise das empresas do setor pelos investidores em mercado de capitais. Embora a aplicação do modelo CAPM seja simples, ele é construído sobre hipóteses rigorosas, que nem sempre são observáveis no mercado real, principalmente em países emergentes. Inserido no referencial teórico deste Modelo, o presente trabalho tem como o objetivo analisar a utilização do coeficiente beta no setor elétrico brasileiro, identificando potenciais distorções que decorram de sua aplicação. Adicionalmente, este trabalho busca analisar o comportamento desse coeficiente de mercado ao longo do período de 1999 a 2007, identificando possíveis tendências. Para isso, lança-se mão de dados que são amplamente utilizados pelos agentes do mercado de capitais, oriundos de uma amostra de empresas que, por possuírem dados disponibilizados em bolsa de valores tornam viável gerar este coeficiente. Das análises realizadas é possível concluir que o coeficiente beta obtido com dados do mercado brasileiro apresentou valores bem próximos aos coeficientes obtidos em mercados desenvolvidos. Também foi possível constatar que os segmentos de distribuição e geração apresentam, no mercado brasileiro, betas desalavancados de mesma ordem de grandeza entre si, embora o segmento de geração seja mais concorrencial e, no de distribuição, predomine um contexto de monopólio natural. / The coefficient beta, defined in the context of the Capital Asset Pricing Model, has been widely applied within the Brazilian electricity industry. Its application has been conducted not only by the regulatory authority regarding tariff review of regulated electricity concessionaires, but also largely used by investors in Brazilian the capital market. Although the CAPM tool is a straight forward one, the Model itself was built under strict assumptions which are not often found in the real world, mainly in developing countries. Departing from this theoretical framework, this master thesis analyses the coefficient beta within the Brazilian electricity industry, identifying potential distortions derived from its application. Additionally, this work examines the coefficient beta behavior throughout 1999 up to 2007, pointing possible trends. For generating the beta coefficient, it is used the same sort of data usually selected by market investors, applied to a set of select companies belonging to the Brazilian electricity industry that have their information publicly disclosed in the financial and stock markets. The result of the analysis pointed that the coefficient beta generated for the Brazilian companies analyzed did not differ much form those of companies belonging to the electricity industry of developed countries. It was also perceived that the segments of electricity distribution and electricity generation presented unlevered betas of the same magnitude although generating companies operates in a competitive market and distribution concessionaires face predominantly a natural monopoly context.

Esse estudo visa testar a eficiência informacional dos mercados acionários brasileiro e mexicano, através do desenvolvimento de um estudo de eventos. Para viabilização do estudo, o mercado brasileiro será representado pela BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo e o mercado mexicano pela BMV - Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. Especificamente, esses mercados serão representados pelas ações de empresas que participaram da composição das carteiras teóricas dos Índices IBOVESPA e IpyC (Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones) durante todo o período compreendido entre Janeiro de 2001 e Janeiro de 2006. Foram analisadas as reações dos retornos das ações nesses mercados nos dias próximos às datas das divulgações de resultados trimestrais pelas empresas em busca de evidências de ineficiências. Os resultados encontrados mostraram indícios de eficiência informacional quando as empresas foram consideradas individualmente e indícios de ineficiência informacional quando considerada carteira toda. / This study aims to test the informational efficiency of the Brazilian and Mexican stock markets, through the development of an event study. For this purpose, BOVESPA, the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange will represent the Brazilian stock market while the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) will represent the Mexican stock market. Specifically, these markets will be represented by the company stocks that participated of the composition of their stock market indexes, IBOVESPA (BOVESPA Index) and IPyC (Mexican Stock Exchange Index), during the period of January 2001 through January 2006. Stock prices were analyzed for the days around the quarterly results release dates, searching for inefficiency evidence in these markets. The results show signs of information-efficiency when considering each company and information inefficiency when considering the market portfolio.

Submitted by Rafael Reboreda Sbardella (kasd@ig.com.br) on 2013-03-01T00:27:23Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_RafaelReboredaSbardella_2013.pdf: 13504519 bytes, checksum: 8fa81c4df5f6826159fadad65819b06d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-03-01T13:22:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_RafaelReboredaSbardella_2013.pdf: 13504519 bytes, checksum: 8fa81c4df5f6826159fadad65819b06d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-03-01T13:24:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_RafaelReboredaSbardella_2013.pdf: 13504519 bytes, checksum: 8fa81c4df5f6826159fadad65819b06d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-29 / Na última década, a economia brasileira apresentou-se estável adquirindo maior credibilidade mundial. Dentre as opções de investimento, estão os mercados de ações e de títulos públicos. O portfolio de investimento dos agentes é determinado de acordo com os retornos dos ativos e/ou aversão ao risco, e a diversificação é importante para mitigar risco. Dessa forma, o objetivo principal do presente trabalho é estudar a inter-relação entre os mercados de títulos públicos e ações, avaliando aspectos de liquidez e quais variáveis representariam melhor esta relação, verificando também como respondem a um choque (surpresa econômica), pois a percepção de alteração do cenário econômico, ou variações de fluxo financeiro, pode alterar/inverter as relações entre esses mercados. Para isso, estimou-se modelos de vetores auto-regressivos - VAR, com variáveis de retorno, volatilidade e volume negociado para cada um dos mercados em combinações diferentes das variáveis representativas, visando encontrar o(s) modelo(s) mais descritivo(s) das inter-relações entre os mercados, dado a amostra utilizada, para aplicar a dummy de surpresa econômica. Em estudo semelhante Chordia, Sarkar e Subrahmanyam (2005) concluiram que choques de liquidez e volatilidade são positivamente correlacionado nos mercados de ações e títulos públicos em horizontes diários, indicando que os choques de liquidez e volatilidade são muitas vezes de natureza sistêmica. O mesmo não foi observado para a proxy de liquidez utilizada na amostra brasileira. Um resultado interessante a ser ressaltado deve-se as séries SMLL11 (índice Small Caps) e IDkAs (índice de duração constante ANBIMA) não possuírem relação de causalidade de Granger com as demais séries, mas os retornos dos IDkAs Granger causam os retornos do índice SMLL11. Por fim, o choque de surpresa econômica não se mostra explicativo sobre qualquer alteração nas inter-relações entre os mercados de títulos públicos e ações. / In the last decade, the Brazilian economy remained stable gaining credibility worldwide. Among the investment options, are the stock and bond markets. The investment portfolio of agents is determined according to the asset returns and / or risk aversion, and diversification is important to mitigate risk. Thus, the main objective of this work is to study the interrelationship between the stock and bond markets, assessing aspects of liquidity and what variables best represent this relationship, as well as checking account to a shock (economic surprise), because the perception of change economic scenario, or variations in cash flow, can change / reverse relations between these markets. For this, it is estimated models vector autoregressive - VAR with variables of return, volatility and trading volume for each of the markets in different combinations of proxy variables, aiming to find the most descriptive model(s) of the interrelationships between markets, given the sample used, to apply the dummy economic surprise. In a similar study Chordia, Sarkar e Subrahmanyam (2005) conclude that liquidity and volatility shocks are positively and significantly correlated across stock and bond markets at daily horizons, indicating that liquidity and volatility shocks are often systemic in nature. The same was not observed for the liquidity proxy used in the Brazilian sample. An interesting result to be noted due to the SMLL11 (Small Caps index) series e IDkAs (ANBIMA index with constant duration) not have Granger causality relationship with the other series, but the returns of IDkAs Granger cause the returns of the SMLL11 index. Finally, the shock of surprise monetary does not show any change in the explanatory inter-relationships between stock and bond markets.

Submitted by Jamiu Nogueira Antunes de Souza (jamiuantunes@gmail.com) on 2013-08-27T20:30:21Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_MPFE_Jamiu Antunes_270813.pdf: 247660 bytes, checksum: b2d0112dec518d85f9a768b17f619b0d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-08-28T12:51:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_MPFE_Jamiu Antunes_270813.pdf: 247660 bytes, checksum: b2d0112dec518d85f9a768b17f619b0d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-08-28T13:33:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_MPFE_Jamiu Antunes_270813.pdf: 247660 bytes, checksum: b2d0112dec518d85f9a768b17f619b0d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-08-02 / O mercado acionário brasileiro tem demonstrado consistente desenvolvimento ao longo dos últimos anos. A teoria econômica aponta uma inter-relação entre os resultados deste mercado e a estrutura macroeconômica. Através da metodologia de Rigobon e Sack (2003), o presente estudo avalia o impacto contemporâneo do mercado acionário sobre a taxa Selic de juros. A contribuição deste trabalho é a de encontrar indícios de que um choque não esperado que cause 1% de valorização no retorno do mercado acionário provoque uma queda de 0,019% na taxa Selic de juros. Os resultados parecem ser de pequena escala, quando comparados com os valores obtidos em outros países. / The Brazilian stock market has shown consistent growth over the last few years. Economic theory points to an interrelationship between the results of this market and the macroeconomic framework in previous studies. Through the methodology presented by Rigobon and Sack (2003), this study assesses the contemporary impact of the stock market on the Selic interest rate. The contribution of this work is to find evidence that an unexpected shock causes of 1% appreciation in the stock market return causes a decrease of 0.019% in the Selic interest rate. The results appear to be not significant when they are compared to results from other countries.

This thesis examines the performance of portfolios sorted by gross-profit-to-asset (GPA) as a quality investing on the Swedish stock exchange. It constructs long-only portfolios and long-short portfolios sorted by GPA, book-to-market (B/P) and earnings-per-price (E/P). Thus, the thesis includes quality and value investing. The thesis compares separately the constructed long-only and long-short portfolios among each other. The long-only strategies are additionally compared to the market index. The study further examines a combined portfolio, sorting for GPA and B/P in order to test Novy-Marx’s findings. He reports, that the average return improves, while the standard deviation remains at the same level for a combined portfolio sorting for GPA and B/P. This requires a negative correlation. The comparison is based on different portfolio measurements as i.e. s.d. The asset pricing models CAPM and 5-Factor Model are applied. In addition, actual returns, excessive return over the risk-free rate and over the market index as a benchmark are assessed for the portfolio. The analysis is conducted for the time period 1994-2013 and separately for downturns, considering 2000-2003, 2007-2009 and 2010. The results show a great applicability of the gross-profitability ratio on the Swedish market. This quality strategy convinces not only during normal times with the portfolios GPA-h (long-only) and GPA-hl (long-short) but also in stressed times. GPA-h reports positive (abnormal) returns GPA-h during downturns. The long-only and long-short portfolios based on GPA outperform the market in both time periods. GPA-sorted portfolios perform in general better and the two value strategies during normal times and downturns, based on the annual average return. Examining the two value strategies EP-sorted portfolios are superior over BP-sorted portfolios. EP-portfolios achieve better performance during downturns, regarding Jensen’s alpha. It can be derived, that EP is countercyclical. The combined portfolio generates high return and has a high standard deviation. The assessed statement of Novy-Marx cannot be confirmed for the Swedish stock market. It has to be stated that we detected positive correlation instead of negative correlation. It can be derived, that GPA ratio is applicable on the Swedish market, considering the assumptions and limitations of this study. EP-based portfolios show a good performance during downturns. BP- based portfolios do not perform well on the sweidish market in the assessed time frame. The combined portfolio GPABP-hh does increase returns with constant standard deviation, referred to BP-h. Our findings show, that both value strategies do not outperform the market index. The EP-based value portfolios outperform BP-based portfolios. EP-h performs better during downturns considering Jensen’s alpha.

Abstract This dissertation contributes to the understanding of investor behavior by using personality traits to help explain investor decision-making. The work is novel, as personality traits have not been used much in finance research. The data used in this dissertation is also new to the field, consisting of observations on personality traits and socioeconomic variables combined with official records of investors’ stockholdings. The first essay provides evidence that personality traits significantly affect the stock market participation decision. The essay shows that subscales of traits (i.e., lower-level traits or facets) can provide a better model of behavior, with some subscales of a single higher-level trait having opposite effects on behavior. The novelty seeking subscales exploratory excitability and extravagance have positive and negative effects, respectively, and the reward dependence subscales dependence and sentimentality have positive and negative effects, respectively. The magnitudes of the effects are large, with marginal effects on the probability of being a stock market participant of up to four percentage points. The second essay explores the relationship between personality traits and risk aversion. We estimate risk aversion from equity holdings and from survey measures. The traits display a distinctive pattern of correlations with the estimates of risk aversion. Some traits are significantly related to observed portfolio characteristics such as portfolio volatility, number of stocks held, and trading frequency. The pattern of the traits’ relationships with the various measures of risk aversion indicates that personality traits should not be considered as merely drivers of risk aversion but as preference parameters distinct from risk aversion. The third essay shows that personality traits are related to an investor’s preferences for value versus growth stocks and for small capitalization stocks versus large capitalization stocks. We find more extravagant individuals favor large capitalization growth stocks; more impulsive people favor small capitalization growth stocks; more sentimental investors prefer small capitalization value stocks; and more social investors prefer small capitalization stocks with a tilt towards value. / Tiivistelmä Tämä tutkimus auttaa ymmärtämään sijoituskäyttäytymistä selittämällä sijoittajien päätöksentekoa heidän luonteenpiirteillään. Tutkimustuloksilla on uutuusarvoa, sillä luonteenpiirteiden merkitystä ei ole juurikaan tutkittu rahoitustutkimuksessa. Tutkimusaineisto on sekin luonteeltaan tavanomaisesta poikkeava, koostuen yksityishenkilöiden luonteenpiirteitä ja sosioekonomista asemaa kuvaavista muuttujista sekä heidän osakeomistustaan koskevista virallisista rekisteritiedoista. Tutkimuksen ensimmäinen essee osoittaa, että luonteenpiirteillä on merkittävä vaikutus yksityishenkilön päätökseen toimia osakemarkkinoilla. Tutkimustulosten mukaan osallistumispäätöstä kyetään ennustamaan paremmin käyttämällä luonteenpiirteiden pääluokkia mittaavien muuttujien sijasta luonteenpiirteiden alaluokkia mittaavia muuttujia. Tämä selittyy sillä, että alaluokkia mittaavilla muuttujilla on eräissä tapauksissa vastakkaismerkkisiä, pääluokkaa mittaavassa muuttujassa toisensa peittäviä, yhteyksiä osallistumispäätökseen. Tämä voidaan havaita muun muassa pääluokkaan ”elämyshakuisuus” kuuluvien ”kokeilunhalun” (+) ja ”tuhlaavaisuuden” (-) kohdalla, samoin kuin pääluokkaan ”palkkioriippuvuus” kuuvilla ”riippuvuudella” (+) ja ”sentimentaalisuudella” (-). Kaiken kaikkiaan luonteenpirteitä mittaavien muuttujien vaikutuksen suurusluokka on korkea, vastaten yksittäisen muuttujan kohdalla jopa neljän prosentin marginaalivaikutusta osakemarkkinoille osallistumisen todennäköisyyteen. Toinen essee tarkastelee luonteenpiirteiden ja riskinkarttamisen asteen välistä yhteyttä. Tutkimuksessa mitataan yksityishenkilön riskinkarttamisen astetta toisaalta hänen osakeomistuksensa rakenteen perusteella ja toisaalta kyselytutkimuksen avulla. Sijoittajien luonteenpiirteiden ja muodostettujen riskinkarttamisen astetta mittaavien muuttujien väliset korrelaatiot muodostavat selkeän rakenteen. Eräät luonteenpiirteet ovat merkitsevässä riippuvuussuhteessa muun muassa sijoittajan osakesalkun volatiliteettiin, salkkuun sisällytettyjen osakesarjojen määrään ja sijoittajan kaupankäyntiaktiivisuuteen. Luonteenpiirteitä kuvaavien muuttujien ja riskinkarttamisastetta kuvaavien muuttujien välisen yhteyden perusteella luonteenpiirteitä tulisi tarkastella enneminkin erillisinä sijoittajien preferenssejä kuvaavina muuttujina kuin riskinkarttamisasteen taustalla olevina perustekijöinä. Kolmas essee osoittaa, että luonteenpiirteet ovat yhteydessä siihen, suosiiko sijoittaja arvo- vs. kasvuosakkeita ja/tai alhaisen markkina-arvon vs. korkean markkina-arvon yhtiöiden osakkeita. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että ”tuhlaavammat” sijoittajat suosivat korkean markkina-arvon omaavia kasvuosakkeita, kun taas ”impulsiivisemmat” sijoittajat suosivat alhaisen markkina-arvon omaavia kasvuosakkeita. Vastaavasti ”sentimentaalisemmat” sijoittajat suosivat ylipäätään alhaisen markkina-arvon omaavia arvo-osakkeita, ”sosiaalisten” sijoittajien suosiessa heidänkin alhaista markkina-arvoa, suunnaten kiinnostustaan samalla arvo-osakkeisiin.

This thesis merges the fields of Heterogeneous Agent Models (HAMs) and Be- havioural Finance in order to bridge the main deficiencies of both approaches and to examine whether they can complement one another. Our approach suggests an alternative tool for examining HAM price dynamics and brings an original way of dealing with problematic empirical validation. First, we present the original model and discuss various extensions and attempts at empirical estimation. Next, we develop a unique benchmark dataset, covering five par- ticularly turbulent U.S. stock market periods, and reveal an interesting pattern in this data. The main body applies a numerical analysis of the HAM extended with the selected Behavioural Finance findings: herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment. Using Wolfram Mathematica we perform Monte Carlo sim- ulations of a developed algorithm. We show that the selected findings can be well modelled via the HAM and that they extend the original HAM consider- ably. Various HAM modifications lead to significantly different results and HAM is also able to partially replicate price behaviour during turbulent stock market periods. Bibliographic Record Kukačka, J. (2011): Behavioural Breaks in the Heterogeneous Agent Model. Master thesis, Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences,...