The concept of Shifting the Balance of Care was first introduced to NHS Scotland in 2005 through the Kerr Report. The key messages from the report were to: ensure sustainable and safe local services, which are supported by the right skills, change the emphasis of care into the community, provide preventative reactive care, and fully integrate the system to tackle the changes, use technology more effectively, and involve the public in finding solutions to change. Following the report, a framework was developed which highlighted and prioritised eight areas of improvement. These areas for improvement are the focus by which this research examines if Operational Research (OR), specifically OR models, can have a positive impact in Shifting the Balance of Care. The research utilises underlying OR methodologies and methods and provides evidence from the literature of the ability of nine selected models to facilitate the Shift in the Balance of Care. A contributing factor to the research is the barriers to implementation of OR models into the NHS. With reference to the literature, the common barriers to implementation of OR models are categorised and used to provide direction to modellers where implementation barriers are more prevalent in some models than in others. The research also provides empirical evidence of three selected models’ (the Lean Methodology, Process Mapping and Simulation, developed over two Case Studies) ability to address and influence the prioritised Improvement Areas, with the addition of a newly developed model: SoApt. The development of SoApt follows the Principles of Model Development derived as a guide to modellers who wish to develop a new model. SoApt is also empirically explored in a Case Study and provides some evidence of the models ability to aid Decision-makers, faced with limited budgets, to choose between options which will Shift the Balance of Care. OR methods and methodologies are examined to ascertain the Roles of Models for each model explored in the Case Studies. Examination of the Roles of Models against the Improvement Areas provided evidence of a models’ ability to address more than one of the priority areas and that models can be used together or sequentially. In addition, with reference to OR methods and methodologies, a theoretical Evaluation Framework is proposed which suggests the User and User Satisfaction is key to the evaluation of a model’s success; positive experiences of the User and Use of the model may help to eliminate some of the barriers to implementation.

Submitted by Natalie Mendes (nataliermendes@gmail.com) on 2015-07-25T15:33:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTA??O_FINAL_MARIANA.pdf: 1933246 bytes, checksum: cba7b57237fc6562b3b67a07e6bf6068 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-25T15:33:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTA??O_FINAL_MARIANA.pdf: 1933246 bytes, checksum: cba7b57237fc6562b3b67a07e6bf6068 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-03-14 / The access to health services in a global, equal and comprehensive way constitutes itself a civil right legally granted in the Brazilian Federal Constitution of 1988 which regulates and establishes the Unified Health System (SUS). However it is noticeable that the comprehensive access to health services has not been effectively put into practice, especially, in actions of medium and high complexity. Hence, this study aims to understand the organizational dynamic of the access of users of the Family Health Program (PSF) to the healthcare services of medium and high complexity of the SUS network and to analyze health practices performed by the primary care team, medium and high complexity for the feasibility of this access. We have analyzed the organizational dynamic of access to medium and high complexity healthcare services based on the guidelines of the dimensions of a political, technical and symbolical access analysis bounded by Giovanella and Fleury (1995) and supplemented with the theoretical model proposed by Assis et alii (2011). In the theoretical framework we discuss ways for the effectuation of the access to the healthcare services as a citizenship right as well as the organization of healthcare services in medium and high complexity under the focus of healthcare assistance models. This is a qualitative study, of critical and analytical approach in an approximate view of the dialectic method, which has as field of work the Family Health Units (USF), the Polyclinics and the Public Hospitals of Feira de Santana city in the State of Bahia. The participants of the study consisted of three groups: (1) healthcare professionals, (2) users and (3) managers/coordinators of healthcare services totaling 26 participants. We have used techniques such as data collection through semi-structured interviews, systematic observation and document analysis. The data analysis was an approximation of the hermeneutic-dialectic method. From the comparison of the studied data three categories rose up: (1) ORGANIZATIONAL DYNAMIC OF THE ACCESS OF THE USERS AND THE MATERIALITY OF ITS SENSES AND MEANINGS: the transversality of the political, technical and symbolical dimensions; (2) THE WORK PROCESS OF THE HEALTH PROFESSIONALS IN BASIC HEALTHCARE OF MEDIUM AND HIGH COMPLEXITY: an interweaving among healthcare; (3) THE ACCESS OF THE USERS TO THE SERVICES AND THE PRACTICES OF HEALTH OF MEDIUM AND HIGH COMPLEXITY: public/private relationship. The results make the senses/meanings of access to healthcare services that cross the political, technical and symbolical dimensions abundantly clear. The individual and collective practices, held by professionals working in primary care of medium and high complexity to promoting the access of the user to the SUS network, involve committed and welcoming actions by instituting bonds and enhancing the subjectivity of the users in some moments, and in other moments it involves a centered professional model geared towards the patients? concerns/conduct, medicalization and technicism co-existing dialectically an intertwining of lightweight, soft-hard and hard technologies in this process. Within the difficulties and limitations that the users have found to access healthcare services of medium and high complexity the demand was cited once these services are offered on a wider scale than its supply. We have come across several inputs used by users to access the health services of medium and high complexity. Furthermore the relationship between public and private is constitutive of the organization of this reality. The access of the user of the PSF to the practices of medium and high complexity still needs, for its embodiment, an all-embracing commitment of users, health professionals and health managers so as to operationalize it as a citizenship right. / O acesso aos servi?os de sa?de de forma universal, equ?nime e integral, se constitui em um direito de cidadania, garantido legalmente na Constitui??o Federal de 1988, a qual regulamenta e institui o Sistema ?nico de Sa?de (SUS). Contudo, percebemos que o acesso universal aos servi?os de sa?de n?o tem sido traduzido efetivamente na pr?tica, em especial nas a??es de m?dia e alta complexidade. Assim, este estudo teve como objetivos compreender a din?mica organizativa do acesso dos usu?rios do Programa Sa?de da Fam?lia (PSF) aos servi?os de sa?de de m?dia e alta complexidade da rede SUS e analisar as pr?ticas de sa?de realizadas pelos profissionais da aten??o b?sica, de m?dia e alta complexidade para a viabiliza??o deste acesso. Analisamos a din?mica organizativa do acesso aos servi?os de m?dia e alta complexidade, tendo como bases orientadoras as dimens?es de an?lise de acesso pol?tica, t?cnica e simb?lica, delimitadas por Giovanella e Fleury (1995) e complementadas com o modelo te?rico proposto por Assis e outros (2011). No referencial te?rico discutimos os caminhos para a efetiva??o do acesso aos servi?os de sa?de enquanto direito de cidadania, bem como a organiza??o dos servi?os de sa?de de m?dia e alta complexidade sob o enfoque dos modelos assistenciais em sa?de. Trata-se de um estudo qualitativo, de abordagem cr?tico-anal?tica, numa perspectiva aproximada do m?todo Dial?tico, tendo como cen?rio as Unidades de Sa?de da Fam?lia (USF), Policl?nicas e Hospitais p?blicos de Feira de Santana-BA. Os participantes do estudo foram constitu?dos de tr?s grupos: profissionais de sa?de (Grupo I), usu?rios (Grupo II) e gestores/ coordenadores dos servi?os de sa?de (Grupo III), totalizando 26 participantes. Utilizamos como t?cnicas de coleta de dados a entrevista semi-estruturada, a observa??o sistem?tica e a an?lise documental; a an?lise de dados foi uma aproxima??o do m?todo Hermen?utico-dial?tico. A partir do confronto dos dados emergiram tr?s categorias: 1) DIN?MICA ORGANIZATIVA DO ACESSO DOS USU?RIOS E A MATERIALIDADE DOS SENTIDOS E SIGNIFICADOS: a transversalidade das dimens?es pol?tica, t?cnica e simb?lica; 2) O PROCESSO DE TRABALHO DOS PROFISSIONAIS DE SA?DE NA ATEN??O B?SICA, DE M?DIA E ALTA COMPLEXIDADE: um entrela?amento entre as tecnologias de sa?de; 3) O ACESSO DOS USU?RIOS AOS SERVI?OS E ?S PR?TICAS DE SA?DE DE M?DIA E ALTA COMPLEXIDADE: rela??o p?blico x privado. Os resultados explicitam que os sentidos/ significados de acesso aos servi?os de sa?de transversalizam as dimens?es pol?tica, t?cnica e simb?lica. As pr?ticas individuais e coletivas realizadas pelos profissionais que atuam na aten??o b?sica, de m?dia e alta complexidade para a promo??o do acesso do usu?rio ? rede SUS envolvem a??es compromissadas, acolhedoras, com institui??o do v?nculo e a valoriza??o da subjetividade dos usu?rios em alguns momentos, e em outros passam pelo modelo profissional centrado, voltado para a queixa-conduta, medicaliza??o e tecnicismo, co-existindo dialeticamente um entrela?amento das tecnologias leve, leve-dura e dura nesse processo. Dentre as dificuldades e limites que os usu?rios t?m encontrado para acessar os servi?os de sa?de de m?dia e alta complexidade foi citada a demanda por esses servi?os ser maior que a sua oferta. Deparamo-nos com diversas portas de entradas utilizadas pelos usu?rios para acessar os servi?os de m?dia e alta complexidade. Al?m disso, a rela??o entre o p?blico e o privado ? constitutiva da organiza??o desta realidade. O acesso do usu?rio do PSF aos servi?os e ?s pr?ticas de m?dia e alta complexidade ainda necessita para a sua concretiza??o de um comprometimento dos usu?rios, profissionais e gestores da sa?de de modo a operacionaliz?-lo enquanto um direito de cidadania.

Nous avons réalisé un état des lieux de la prise en charge des femmes au moment d’un accouchement en France, dans un contexte où la médecine fondée sur les preuves occupe une place de plus en plus importante dans la pratique des professionnels, où la fermeture de nombreuses maternités entraîne une concentration des naissances dans des établissements publics et spécialisés de plus en plus grands, et où l’on souhaite répondre aux besoins des femmes et à certaines de leurs demandes.Dans une première partie nous avons décrit comment les caractéristiques des maternités contribuent à expliquer les variations dans la prise en charge des femmes. Nous avons abordé la question pour la durée du séjour en post-partum et l’organisation de la prise en charge médicale à la sortie de la maternité, et pour les actes réalisés pendant l’accouchement chez des femmes à bas risque (déclenchement, césarienne, extraction instrumentale et épisiotomie). Dans une deuxième partie nous avons cherché à estimer la part des césariennes avant travail potentiellement évitables et la part des déclenchements sans motif médical et nous avons recherché quels facteurs étaient associés à ces actes.Le contenu des soins différait peu selon la taille ou le niveau de spécialisation de la maternité, sauf pour les interventions potentiellement évitables ou sans motif médical, plus fréquentes dans les petites maternités moins spécialisées, et les durées de séjour en maternité, beaucoup plus courtes dans les grandes maternités et celles de type 3. A l’inverse, le statut privé de la maternité influençait de manière forte la prise en charge des femmes : les interventions y étaient plus fréquentes, parfois en réponse à des demandes des femmes (déclenchements sans motif médical). Les caractéristiques médicales des femmes avaient un impact sur la réalisation des interventions obstétricales, avec des associations similaires à celles déjà publiées, mais les caractéristiques sociales des femmes influaient peu sur le contenu des soins.Les résultats fournissent un bilan général, utile pour évaluer les politiques de santé publique. Ils soulèvent des questions sur l’organisation des services et les processus qui conduisent aux décisions de réaliser certaines interventions obstétricales. / We assessed practices during delivery and the postpartum period in France, in a context where evidence based medicine plays a more and more important role in professional practice, where the closure of maternity units leads to a concentration of births in large public and specialized units, and where professionals want to meet the needs of women and some of their requests.We first described how maternity units’ characteristics contribute to explain variations in obstetrical intervention’s rates. We studied postpartum length-of-stay and support for women after discharge from maternity unit, and interventions performed during labor among low-risk women (inductions, cesareans, instrumental deliveries and episiotomy).In a second part we estimated the proportions of potentially avoidable cesarean deliveries and inductions without medical indications; we also investigated which factors were associated with these interventions.Obstetrical practices differed slightly depending on the size or the level of care of maternity units, except potentially avoidable cesareans, which were more frequent in small and low-specialized units, and postpartum length-of-stay, which were shorter in large and type 3 units. On the contrary, the private status of the unit strongly influenced the management of delivery: all studied interventions were more frequent in private units, sometimes in response to maternal requests (inductions without medical indications for example). Women’s medical characteristics had an impact on obstetric intervention rates; the associations were similar to those previously reported in other publications. However social characteristics had little influence on the content of care.The results provide an overall evaluation, useful for assessing perinatal public health policies. They raise questions about maternity unit organization and processes that lead to decisions to perform obstetrical interventions.

This study explores the practical and ideological implications of the New Public Management (NPM) paradigm as introduced in Greece by the so-called “Troika”, a sobriquet referring to a triumvirate comprising representatives of the IMF, the European Union, and the European Central Bank. In the past, attempts had been made by Greek officials to implement managerial practices within the Greek National Health Service (NHS) and the hospital sector in particular, albeit at a more leisurely pace than that of other countries’. On arrival to Greece the Troika imposed a number of changes to improve the country’s public services; and set a brisk pace to accelerate their implementation. The present doctoral thesis seeks to critically evaluate the issue of whether those reforms, especially those salient to the Greek NHS system, are true manifestations of a shift in the NPM paradigm or whether they represent yet another archetypal Greek public sector restructuring. It will also evaluate responses to and outcomes of the successive reforms in the Greece’s NHS system, ascertain the factors contributing to and/or impeding the adoption of those reforms, and identify new opportunities for growth. In order to gain access to a more profound insight into the Greek context, the collection of secondary data provides, among other things, an historical background of Greece’s public healthcare system; reviews the system’s characteristics in terms of healthcare policies, and probes into the state of working conditions within public hospitals. The heightened managerial spirit prevalent in Greece at the moment and brought about by the Troika’s tenure, has made it necessary for the literature review of the present work to focus on the ways that managerial practices and ideologies are imposed on other countries so that their public sector dysfunctionalities may be rectified. Drawing on the literature reviewed, the study develops an integrated analytical framework anchored in NPM, so as to test it in the Greek case and contribute to understanding the Greek NHS organisational realities as well as to evaluating how the new changes have been evolving and faring within Greece’s healthcare organisations. The framework is comprised of a review of the NPM paradigm so as to contextualise the Greek reforms in terms of ideology and practices; a review of Principal-Agent Theory (PAT) for illuminating the interrelationships and involvement of the key actors with the reforms; and a review of Critical Realism (CR) for assisting to reveal the underlying mechanisms and structures that bind the actors with the organisations and their development. Apart from providing the conceptual basis of the thesis, the framework also serves in informing its methodological design (i.e., generating the interview schedule), analysing the findings, and steering the discussion. The study adopts an in-depth, qualitative research approach that views social life within organisations in terms of processes, events, actions, and activities between key actors as factors unfolding over time. To that purpose, semi-structured interviews were conducted with the key stakeholders of the Greek NHS system: State hospital doctors, hospital managers, and policymakers. The contribution of the study is an in-depth analysis of reform implementation as carried out in Greece’s medical system which now stands, within a turbulent economic and political context. By means of that analytical framework, it is shown that Greece is a sui generis case whose context and historical background are altogether different than those of other countries’. Moreover, the framework demonstrates that, despite the fact that NPM is firmly ensconced, as far as practice and ideology go, it is too soon to be drawing any conclusions: NPM is still in its infancy and reforms to the Greek NHS system have yet to be finalised as they continuously stumble on the inefficiencies and blunders of the past which hinder them from functioning properly. Last, the thesis does possess one more unique feature: it delves into the thinking, manoeuvres, and behaviour of the Greek healthcare professionals as a group, a world rarely if ever explored by empirical studies.

No description available.

L’objectif de la présente thèse est de générer des connaissances sur les contributions possibles d’une formation continue à l’évolution des perspectives et pratiques des professionnels de la santé buccodentaire. Prônant une approche centrée sur le patient, la formation vise à sensibiliser les professionnels à la pauvreté et à encourager des pratiques qui se veulent inclusives et qui tiennent compte du contexte social des patients. L’évaluation de la formation s’inscrit dans le contexte d’une recherche-action participative de développement d’outils éducatifs et de transfert des connaissances sur la pauvreté. Cette recherche-action aspire à contribuer à la lutte contre les iniquités sociales de santé et d’accès aux soins au Québec; elle reflète une préoccupation pour une plus grande justice sociale ainsi qu’une prise de position pour une santé publique critique fondée sur une « science des solutions » (Potvin, 2013). Quatre articles scientifiques, ancrés dans une philosophie constructiviste et dans les concepts et principes de l’apprentissage transformationnel (Mezirow, 1991), constituent le cœur de cette thèse. Le premier article présente une revue critique de la littérature portant sur l’enseignement de l’approche de soins centrés sur le patient. Prenant appui sur le concept d’une « épistémologie partagée », des principes éducatifs porteurs d’une transformation de perspective à l’égard de la relation professionnel-patient ont été identifiés et analysés. Le deuxième article de thèse s’inscrit dans le cadre du développement participatif d’outils de formation sur la pauvreté et illustre le processus de co-construction d’un scénario de court-métrage social réaliste portant sur la pauvreté et l’accès aux soins. L’article décrit et apporte une réflexion, notamment sur la dimension de co-formation entre les différents acteurs des milieux académique, professionnel et citoyen qui ont constitué le collectif À l’écoute les uns des autres. Nous y découvrons la force du croisement des savoirs pour générer des prises de conscience sur soi et sur ses préjugés. Les outils développés par le collectif ont été intégrés à une formation continue axée sur la réflexion critique et l’apprentissage transformationnel, et conçue pour être livrée en cabinet dentaire privé. Les deux derniers articles de thèse présentent les résultats d’une étude de cas instrumentale évaluative centrée sur cette formation continue et visant donc à répondre à l’objectif premier de cette thèse. Le premier consiste en une analyse des transformations de perspectives et d’action au sein d’une équipe de 15 professionnels dentaires ayant participé à la formation continue sur une période de trois mois. L’article décrit, entre autres, une plus grande ouverture, chez certains participants, sur les causes structurelles de la pauvreté et une plus grande sensibilité au vécu au quotidien des personnes prestataires de l’aide sociale. L’article comprend également une exploration des effets paradoxaux dans l’apprentissage, notamment le renforcement, chez certains, de perceptions négatives à l’égard des personnes prestataires de l’aide sociale. Le quatrième article fait état de barrières idéologiques contraignant la transformation des pratiques professionnelles : 1) l’identification à l’idéologie du marché privé comme véhicule d’organisation des soins; 2) l’attachement au concept d’égalité dans les pratiques, au détriment de l’équité; 3) la prédominance du modèle biomédical, contraignant l’adoption de pratiques centrées sur la personne et 4) la catégorisation sociale des personnes prestataires de l’aide sociale. L’analyse des perceptions, mais aussi de l’expérience vécue de ces barrières démontre comment des facteurs systémiques et sociaux influent sur le rapport entre professionnel dentaire et personne prestataire de l’aide sociale. Les conséquences pour la recherche, l’éducation dentaire, le transfert des connaissances, ainsi que pour la régulation professionnelle et les politiques de santé buccodentaire, sont examinées à partir de cette perspective. / This thesis aims to generate knowledge on how a continuing education course might contribute to the evolution of oral health professionals’ perspectives and practices. Promoting patient centered care, the course aims to sensitize professionals to poverty issues and to encourage socially inclusive practices that take into account the social context of patients. The course evaluation is nested within a participatory action research project aimed at developing educational and knowledge transfer tools to sensitize oral health professionals to poverty issues and Our research strives to contribute to the fight against social inequities in health and in access to care in Québec; it is grounded in our intent for greater social justice and reflects our belief in the importance of a critical public health founded on a « science of solutions » (Potvin, 2013). Four scientific articles, grounded in constructivism and in the concepts and principles of transformative learning theory (Mezirow, 1991), constitute the heart of this thesis. The first presents a critical review of the literature on health professional education for patient-centered care. We focus on the concept of shared epistemology as a foundation for patient-centered care and determine and analyse the educational principles allowing for its development in students and practitioners. Our second article, located within the participatory developmental process, delves into the co-construction of a social realist screenplay portraying poverty and issues of access to dental care. The article examines and reflects on the participatory processes, in particular the co-learning that took place among the partners involved in writing the screenplay and in producing the educational tools on poverty. We discover the potency of shared knowledge among professionals, citizens, educators and academics for enhancing reflection on bias and perspective taking. The educational tools developed have been integrated into an onsite credited continuing education course on poverty and oral health, privileging critical reflection, founded on transformative learning theory, and integrating dimensions of person-centered care. The results of an instrumental case study among the 15 members of a dental team having participated in the course constitute the last two articles of the thesis. The first describes and analyzes the new meanings and actions among course participants, emphasizing shifts in thinking about the causes of poverty, about life on welfare, about certain patient behaviors and about the participants themselves. New actions refer to changes made in verbal and non-verbal communication and appointment giving policy. The article also examines unanticipated and paradoxical effects of learning, such as the reinforcement of certain beliefs. The final thesis article presents the case study results in terms of the participants’ experience of their workplace ideologies and how these constitute obstacles or objections to learning or to making practice or policy changes. These ideologies include 1) identification with a for-profit and private market oral health care system; 2) “equal treatment”, a belief constraining concern for equity and the recognition of discriminatory practices; 3) a predominantly biomedical orientation to care; and 4) stereotypical categorization of publically insured patients into « deserving » vs. « non-deserving » poor. This knowledge contributes to our understanding of systemic influences on professionals’ practices and interactions with patients living on welfare. We discuss implications for research, dental education and knowledge translation, as well as in terms of oral health policy and oral health professional regulation.

Estudou-se a forma usual como a violência vem se apresentando e é ou não trabalhada no interior dos serviços de saúde de atenção primária. A partir da interação que se estabelece entre as usuárias e profissionais desses serviços busca-se as condições que propiciam ou obstaculizam a emergência, o acolhimento e a proposta de intervenção sobre a questão no interior de um serviço de saúde. Foi estudado um serviço específico que tinha como característica ter o PAISM implantado através de observação direta de atividades assistenciais, análise do registro em prontuário e do perfil de consumo do serviço e entrevistas com usuárias e profissionais. Encontrou-se a emergência de conflitos em torno das relações de gênero e violência de gênero no registro tanto em prontuários como na observação direta. Observou-se que as possibilidades de emergência destes conflitos estão ligadas aos canais de comunicação abertos e à possibilidade de antever alguma resposta para o exercício profissional. Discute-se os riscos trazidos pela possível medicalização e psiquiatrização da violência e a importância de um trabalho intersetorial e multidisciplinar para apreender e trabalhar o problema. / The purpose of this paper is to identify the usual ways in which violence has been manifesting itself and how health services deal with it –- or fail to do so. It tries to understand the relation that is established between female users and the professionals who work at these healthcare services with regard to the problem of violence against women as a form of demand capable of generating the production of healthcare. This comprehension has made it possible to understand the conditions that either enable or stand it the way of the manifestation, the provision of care and the intervention proposal relative to the issue within healthcare services. The risks that result from the possible medicalization of violence are also discussed, as well as the importance of interdisciplinary and intersectorial work in both understanding and dealing with the problem.

OBJETIVOS: O estudo explorou diferentes métodos de séries temporais visando desenvolver um modelo para a previsão do volume diário de pacientes no Pronto Socorro do Instituto Central do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da USP. MÉTODOS: Foram explorados seis diferentes modelos para previsão do número diário de pacientes no pronto socorro de acordo com algumas variáveis relacionadas ao calendário e à temperatura média diária. Para a construção dos modelos, utilizou-se a contagem diária de pacientes atendidos no pronto socorro entre 1° de janeiro de 2008 a 31 de dezembro de 2010. Os primeiros 33 meses do banco de dados foram utilizados para o desenvolvimento e ajuste dos modelos, e os últimos três meses foram utilizados para comparação dos resultados obtidos em termos da acurácia de previsão. A acurácia foi medida a partir do erro médio percentual absoluto. Os modelos foram desenvolvidos utilizando-se três diferentes métodos: modelos lineares generalizados, equações de estimação generalizadas e modelos sazonais autorregressivos integrados de média móvel (SARIMA). Para cada método, foram testados modelos que incluíram termos para controlar o efeito da temperatura média diária e modelos que não incluíram esse controle. RESULTADOS: Foram atendidos, em média, 389 pacientes diariamente no pronto socorro, número que variou entre 166 e 613. Observou-se uma sazonalidade semanal marcante na distribuição do volume de pacientes ao longo do tempo, com maior número de pacientes às segundas feiras e tendência linear decrescente ao longo da semana. Não foi observada variação significante no volume de pacientes de acordo com os meses do ano. Os modelos lineares generalizados e equações de estimação generalizada resultaram em melhor acurácia de previsão que os modelos SARIMA. No primeiro horizonte de previsão (outubro), por exemplo, os erros médios percentuais absolutos dos modelos lineares generalizados e de equação de estimação generalizada foram ambos 11,5% e 10,8% (modelos que incluíram e que não incluíram termo para controlar o efeito da temperatura, respectivamente), enquanto os erros médios percentuais absolutos para os modelos SARIMA foram 12,8% e 11,7% (modelos que incluíram e que não incluíram termo para controlar o efeito da temperatura, respectivamente). Para todos os modelos, incluir termos para controlar o efeito da temperatura média diária não resultou em melhor acurácia de previsão. A previsão a curto prazo (7 dias) em geral resultou em maior acurácia do que a previsão a longo prazo (30 dias). CONCLUSÕES: Este estudo indica que métodos de séries temporais podem ser aplicados na rotina do serviço de pronto socorro para a previsão do provável volume diário de pacientes no serviço. A previsão realizada para o curto prazo tem boa acurácia e pode ser incorporada à rotina do serviço, de modo a subsidiar seu planejamento e colaborar com a adequação de recursos materiais e humanos. Os modelos de previsão baseados unicamente em variáveis relacionadas ao calendário foram capazes de prever a variação no volume diário de pacientes, e os métodos aqui aplicados podem ser automatizados para gerar informações com antecedência suficiente para decisões de planejamento do serviço de pronto socorro / OBJECTIVES: This study aims to develop different models to forecast the daily number of patients seeking emergency department (ED) care in a general hospital according to calendar variables and ambient temperature readings and to compare the models in terms of forecasting accuracy. METHODS: We developed and tested six different models of ED patient visits using total daily counts of patient visits to the Instituto Central do Hospital das Clínicas Emergency Department from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010. We used the first 33 months of the dataset to develop the ED patient visits forecasting models (the training set), leaving the last 3 months to measure each model\'s forecasting accuracy by the mean absolute percentage error. Forecasting models were developed using 3 different time series analysis methods: generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). For each method, we explored models with and without the effect of mean daily temperature as a predictive variable. RESULTS: Daily mean number of ED visits was 389, ranging from 166 to 613. Data showed a weekly seasonal distribution, with highest patient volumes on Mondays and lowest patient volumes on weekends. There was little variation in daily visits by month. Generalized linear models and generalized estimating equation models showed better forecasting accuracy than SARIMA models. For instance, the mean absolute percentage errors from generalized linear models and generalized estimating equations models at the first month of forecasting (October, 2012), were 11.5% and 10.8% (models with and without control for the temperature effect, respectively), while the mean absolute percentage errors from SARIMA models were 12.8% and 11.7% (models with and without control for the temperature effect, respectively). For all models, controlling for the effect of temperature resulted in worse or similar forecasting ability than models with calendar variables alone, and forecasting accuracy was better for the short term horizon (7 days in advance) than for the longer term (30 days in advance). CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that time series models can be developed to provide forecasts of daily ED patient visits, and forecasting ability was dependent on the type of model employed and the length of the time-horizon being predicted. In our setting, generalized linear models and generalized estimating equation models showed better accuracy, and including information about ambient temperature in the models did not improve forecasting accuracy. Forecasting models based on calendar variables alone did in general detect patterns of daily variability in ED volume, and thus could be used for developing an automated system for better planning of personnel resources

OBJETIVOS: O estudo explorou diferentes métodos de séries temporais visando desenvolver um modelo para a previsão do volume diário de pacientes no Pronto Socorro do Instituto Central do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da USP. MÉTODOS: Foram explorados seis diferentes modelos para previsão do número diário de pacientes no pronto socorro de acordo com algumas variáveis relacionadas ao calendário e à temperatura média diária. Para a construção dos modelos, utilizou-se a contagem diária de pacientes atendidos no pronto socorro entre 1° de janeiro de 2008 a 31 de dezembro de 2010. Os primeiros 33 meses do banco de dados foram utilizados para o desenvolvimento e ajuste dos modelos, e os últimos três meses foram utilizados para comparação dos resultados obtidos em termos da acurácia de previsão. A acurácia foi medida a partir do erro médio percentual absoluto. Os modelos foram desenvolvidos utilizando-se três diferentes métodos: modelos lineares generalizados, equações de estimação generalizadas e modelos sazonais autorregressivos integrados de média móvel (SARIMA). Para cada método, foram testados modelos que incluíram termos para controlar o efeito da temperatura média diária e modelos que não incluíram esse controle. RESULTADOS: Foram atendidos, em média, 389 pacientes diariamente no pronto socorro, número que variou entre 166 e 613. Observou-se uma sazonalidade semanal marcante na distribuição do volume de pacientes ao longo do tempo, com maior número de pacientes às segundas feiras e tendência linear decrescente ao longo da semana. Não foi observada variação significante no volume de pacientes de acordo com os meses do ano. Os modelos lineares generalizados e equações de estimação generalizada resultaram em melhor acurácia de previsão que os modelos SARIMA. No primeiro horizonte de previsão (outubro), por exemplo, os erros médios percentuais absolutos dos modelos lineares generalizados e de equação de estimação generalizada foram ambos 11,5% e 10,8% (modelos que incluíram e que não incluíram termo para controlar o efeito da temperatura, respectivamente), enquanto os erros médios percentuais absolutos para os modelos SARIMA foram 12,8% e 11,7% (modelos que incluíram e que não incluíram termo para controlar o efeito da temperatura, respectivamente). Para todos os modelos, incluir termos para controlar o efeito da temperatura média diária não resultou em melhor acurácia de previsão. A previsão a curto prazo (7 dias) em geral resultou em maior acurácia do que a previsão a longo prazo (30 dias). CONCLUSÕES: Este estudo indica que métodos de séries temporais podem ser aplicados na rotina do serviço de pronto socorro para a previsão do provável volume diário de pacientes no serviço. A previsão realizada para o curto prazo tem boa acurácia e pode ser incorporada à rotina do serviço, de modo a subsidiar seu planejamento e colaborar com a adequação de recursos materiais e humanos. Os modelos de previsão baseados unicamente em variáveis relacionadas ao calendário foram capazes de prever a variação no volume diário de pacientes, e os métodos aqui aplicados podem ser automatizados para gerar informações com antecedência suficiente para decisões de planejamento do serviço de pronto socorro / OBJECTIVES: This study aims to develop different models to forecast the daily number of patients seeking emergency department (ED) care in a general hospital according to calendar variables and ambient temperature readings and to compare the models in terms of forecasting accuracy. METHODS: We developed and tested six different models of ED patient visits using total daily counts of patient visits to the Instituto Central do Hospital das Clínicas Emergency Department from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010. We used the first 33 months of the dataset to develop the ED patient visits forecasting models (the training set), leaving the last 3 months to measure each model\'s forecasting accuracy by the mean absolute percentage error. Forecasting models were developed using 3 different time series analysis methods: generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). For each method, we explored models with and without the effect of mean daily temperature as a predictive variable. RESULTS: Daily mean number of ED visits was 389, ranging from 166 to 613. Data showed a weekly seasonal distribution, with highest patient volumes on Mondays and lowest patient volumes on weekends. There was little variation in daily visits by month. Generalized linear models and generalized estimating equation models showed better forecasting accuracy than SARIMA models. For instance, the mean absolute percentage errors from generalized linear models and generalized estimating equations models at the first month of forecasting (October, 2012), were 11.5% and 10.8% (models with and without control for the temperature effect, respectively), while the mean absolute percentage errors from SARIMA models were 12.8% and 11.7% (models with and without control for the temperature effect, respectively). For all models, controlling for the effect of temperature resulted in worse or similar forecasting ability than models with calendar variables alone, and forecasting accuracy was better for the short term horizon (7 days in advance) than for the longer term (30 days in advance). CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that time series models can be developed to provide forecasts of daily ED patient visits, and forecasting ability was dependent on the type of model employed and the length of the time-horizon being predicted. In our setting, generalized linear models and generalized estimating equation models showed better accuracy, and including information about ambient temperature in the models did not improve forecasting accuracy. Forecasting models based on calendar variables alone did in general detect patterns of daily variability in ED volume, and thus could be used for developing an automated system for better planning of personnel resources

Estudou-se a forma usual como a violência vem se apresentando e é ou não trabalhada no interior dos serviços de saúde de atenção primária. A partir da interação que se estabelece entre as usuárias e profissionais desses serviços busca-se as condições que propiciam ou obstaculizam a emergência, o acolhimento e a proposta de intervenção sobre a questão no interior de um serviço de saúde. Foi estudado um serviço específico que tinha como característica ter o PAISM implantado através de observação direta de atividades assistenciais, análise do registro em prontuário e do perfil de consumo do serviço e entrevistas com usuárias e profissionais. Encontrou-se a emergência de conflitos em torno das relações de gênero e violência de gênero no registro tanto em prontuários como na observação direta. Observou-se que as possibilidades de emergência destes conflitos estão ligadas aos canais de comunicação abertos e à possibilidade de antever alguma resposta para o exercício profissional. Discute-se os riscos trazidos pela possível medicalização e psiquiatrização da violência e a importância de um trabalho intersetorial e multidisciplinar para apreender e trabalhar o problema. / The purpose of this paper is to identify the usual ways in which violence has been manifesting itself and how health services deal with it –- or fail to do so. It tries to understand the relation that is established between female users and the professionals who work at these healthcare services with regard to the problem of violence against women as a form of demand capable of generating the production of healthcare. This comprehension has made it possible to understand the conditions that either enable or stand it the way of the manifestation, the provision of care and the intervention proposal relative to the issue within healthcare services. The risks that result from the possible medicalization of violence are also discussed, as well as the importance of interdisciplinary and intersectorial work in both understanding and dealing with the problem.