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<p> Acid rain continues to be a major environmental problem. Canada has been monitoring indicators of acid rain in various ecosystems since the 1970s. This project focuses on the analysis of a selected subset of data generated by the Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW) monitoring program from 1980 to 1997. TLW consists of a series of connected lakes where 6 monitoring stations are strategically located to measure the input from an upper stream lake into a down stream lake. Segment regression models with AR(1) errors and unknown point of change are used to summarize the data. Relative likelihood based methods are applied to estimate the point of change. For pH, all the regression parameters except autocorrelation have been found to change significantly between the model segments. This was not the case for SO4 2- where a single model was found to be adequate. In addition pH has been found to have a moderate increasing trend and pronounced seasonality while SO4 2- showed a dramatic decreasing trend but little seasonality. Multivariate dimension reduction methods are used to provide an overall graphical summary of the changes in TLW water system. We also report the result of applying segment regression for the analysis of first two principal components in selected stations. The results show that the efforts of the Canadian and US governments to reduce the emission of SO2 have been successful in controlling the acid rain problem in Eastern Canada. The project ends with suggestions for various extensions of the present work.</p> / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

Spatial-temporal autologistic models are useful models for binary data that are measured repeatedly over time on a spatial lattice. They can account for effects of potential covariates and spatial-temporal statistical dependence among the data. However, the traditional parametrization of spatial-temporal autologistic model presents difficulties in interpreting model parameters across varying levels of statistical dependence, where its non-negative autocovariates could bias the realizations toward 1. In order to achieve interpretable parameters, a centered spatial-temporal autologistic regression model has been developed. Two efficient statistical inference approaches, expectation-maximization pseudo-likelihood approach (EMPL) and Monte Carlo expectation-maximization likelihood approach (MCEML), have been proposed. Also, Bayesian inference is considered and studied. Moreover, the performance and efficiency of these three inference approaches across various sizes of sampling lattices and numbers of sampling time points through both simulation study and a real data example have been studied. In addition, We consider the imputation of missing values is for spatial-temporal autologistic regression models. Most existing imputation methods are not admissible to impute spatial-temporal missing values, because they can disrupt the inherent structure of the data and lead to a serious bias during the inference or computing efficient issue. Two imputation methods, iteration-KNN imputation and maximum entropy imputation, are proposed, both of them are relatively simple and can yield reasonable results. In summary, the main contributions of this dissertation are the development of a spatial-temporal autologistic regression model with centered parameterization, and proposal of EMPL, MCEML, and Bayesian inference to obtain the estimations of model parameters. Also, iteration-KNN and maximum entropy imputation methods have been presented for spatial-temporal missing data, which generate reliable imputed values with the reasonable efficient imputation time.

In many areas of the agriculture, biological, physical and social sciences, spatial lattice data are becoming increasingly common. In addition, a large amount of lattice data shows not only visible spatial pattern but also temporal pattern (see, Zhu et al. 2005). An interesting problem is to develop a model to systematically model the relationship between the response variable and possible explanatory variable, while accounting for space and time effect simultaneously. Spatial-temporal linear model and the corresponding likelihood-based statistical inference are important tools for the analysis of spatial-temporal lattice data. We propose a general asymptotic framework for spatial-temporal linear models and investigate the property of maximum likelihood estimates under such framework. Mild regularity conditions on the spatial-temporal weight matrices will be put in order to derive the asymptotic properties (consistency and asymptotic normality) of maximum likelihood estimates. A simulation study is conducted to examine the finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. For spatial data, aside from traditional likelihood-based method, a variety of literature has discussed Bayesian approach to estimate the correlation (auto-covariance function) among spatial data, especially Zheng et al. (2010) proposed a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate a spectral density. We will also discuss nonparametric Bayesian approach in analyzing spatial data. We will propose a general procedure for constructing a multivariate Feller prior and establish its theoretical property as a nonparametric prior. A blocked Gibbs sampling algorithm is also proposed for computation since the posterior distribution is analytically manageable.

L'activité électrique du coeur est initiée par la génération spontanée de potentiels d'action venant des cellules pacemaker du noeud sinusal (SN). Toute dysfonction au niveau de cette région entraîne une instabilité électrique du coeur. La majorité des patients souffrant d'un noeud sinusal déficient nécessitent l'implantation chirurgicale d'un pacemaker électronique; cependant, les limitations de cette approche incitent à la recherche d'une alternative thérapeutique. La base moléculaire des courants ioniques jouant un rôle crucial dans l'activité du noeud sinusal sont de plus en plus connues. Une composante importante de l'activité des cellules pacemakers semble être le canal HCN, responsable du courant pacemaker If. Le facteur T-box 3 (Tbx3), un facteur de transcription conservé durant le processus de l'évolution, est nécessaire au développement du système de conduction cardiaque. De précédentes études ont démontré que dans différentes lignées cellulaires le Phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) active l'expression du gène codant Tbx3 via des réactions en cascade partant de la protéine kinase C (PKC). L'objectif principal de cette étude est de tester si le PMA peut augmenter la fréquence et la synchronisation de l'activité spontanée du pacemaker biologique en culture. Plus précisément, nous avons étudié les effets de l'exposition chronique au PMA sur l'expression du facteur de transcription Tbx3, sur HCN4 et l'activité spontanée chez des monocouches de culture de myocytes ventriculaires de rats néonataux (MVRN). Nos résultats démontrent que le PMA augmente significativement le facteur transcription de Tbx3 et l'expression ARNm de HCN4, favorisant ainsi l'augmentation du rythme et de la stabilité de l'activité autonome. De plus, une diminution significative de la vitesse de conduction a été relevée et est attribuée à la diminution du couplage intercellulaire. La diminution de la vitesse de conduction pourrait expliquer l'effet négatif du PMA sur la synchronisation de l'activité autonome du pacemaker biologique. Ces résultats ont été confirmés par un modèle mathématique multicellulaire suggérant que des fréquences et résistances intercellulaires plus élevée pourraient induire une activité plus stable et moins synchrone. Cette étude amène de nouvelles connaissances très importantes destinées à la production d'un pacemaker biologique efficient et robuste. / The normal heartbeat is initiated by the spontaneous generation of action potentials in pacemaker cells of the sinoatrial node (SAN) region. Dysfunction of this region leads to electrical instability of the heart. The majority of the patients with sinus node dysfunction require surgical implantation of electronic pacemaker devices; however, limitations of this therapeutic approach lead to a need to search for alternatives. To date, the molecular basis of the ionic currents which play pivotal role in SAN action potential has been discovered. It is thought that an important component of the pacemaker cells are HCN channels, responsible for the funny current (If) in the SAN. Meanwhile, T-box factor 3 known as an evolutionary conserved transcription factors is necessary for development of the conduction system. In previous studies, it has been shown that Phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) activates Tbx3 gene expression in a PKC-dependent manner in several cell lines. The main objective of this study is to test if PMA can increase the frequency and synchronization of spontaneous activity of cultured biopacemakers. More precisely, we studied the effects of chronic exposure to PMA on the expression of the Tbx3 transcription factor and HCN4 in neonatal rat ventricular myocytes monolayers and how spontaneous activity was altered. Our results show that PMA significantly increases the Tbx3 transcription factor and HCN4 mRNA expression favoring an increased in the rate and spatial-temporal stability of the spontaneous activity. In addition, a significant decrease in conduction velocity was found that is attributed to decrease electrical intercellular coupling of the cells. The decrease in the conduction velocity could explain the negative effect PMA has on synchronization of spontaneous activity of the biopacemaker. These findings are confirmed by a multicellular mathematical model implying that faster frequency and higher intercellular resistance of the pacemaker cells may lead to a more stable and less synchronous activity. This study provides important new knowledge to produce efficient and robust biological pacemakers.

Freshwater bodies such as lakes release the greenhouse gas methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. Global emissions from lakes are estimated to emit more CH4 than oceans, despite that lakes occupies a much smaller global land area. Lakes are therefore significant components for global budgets of CH4. Accurate global estimations of lakes are troublesome, partly because of the spatial and temporal variability of CH4 fluxes, making regional and global assessments filled with uncertainties. Yet, few studies consider the spatial and temporal variability of CH4 fluxes. Therefore, this study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of CH4 fluxes in lakes at different scales. Measurements were made during two field campaigns in lake Venasjön and Parsen, located in the municipality of Söderköping, Sweden. We used the commonly used floating chamber (FC) method for CH4 flux measurements. In order to investigate the small-scale flux variability, we redeveloped the FC-method by constructing two grids consisting of seven FCs distributed approximately 1m apart from each other. One grid was placed at the shallow zone at the inflow of each lake and the other at the lakes deepest zone. By sampling the grid several times every field campaign, spatial and temporal variability of fluxes at different scales could be measured. Overall, we found a significant difference of CH4 fluxes in both lakes depending on field campaign and grid location. Our results also indicate that there is a small-scale variability of CH4 fluxes in lakes. Our hope is that these findings can illustrate the importance of investigating lake fluxes at small spatial and temporal scales. / Sjöar släpper ut växthusgasen metan (CH4) i atmosfären. Globala utsläpp från sjöar beräknas avge mer CH4 än havet, trots att sjöar har en mycket mindre global areal. Sjöar är därför viktiga komponenter för globala budgetar av CH4. Dessvärre är noggranna globala uppskattningar av sjöar svårt att göra, delvis på grund av den spatial och temporala variationen av CH4, vilket gör regionala och globala bedömningar fyllda med osäkerheter. Trots detta undersöker få studier metanflödets spatiala och temporala variabilitet. Denna studie undersöker den spatiala och temporala variabiliteten av CH4-flöden från sjöar i olika skalor. Mätningar genomfördes under två fältkampanjer i sjöarna Venasjön och Parsen som ligger i Söderköpings kommun, Sverige. För att undersöka variabiliteten i en liten skala utvecklade vi den redan använda floating chamber (FC) metoden för flödesmätningar genom att bygga två grids med sju FCs, ungefär 1m mellan varje kammare. En grid placerades vid den grunda delen vid inflödet av varje sjö och den andra vid respektive sjös djupaste del. Genom att mäta griden flera gånger varje fältkampanj kunde den spatiala och temporala variationen av flöden i olika skalor undersökas. Sammantaget fann vi signifikanta skillnader i båda sjöarnas CH4-flöden mellan fältkampanjer och grids. Våra resultat tyder också på småskaliga variationer av CH4-flöden i sjöar. Vårt hopp är att dessa resultat kan ytterligare bekräfta betydelsen av att undersöka sjöflödena i små spatiala och temporära skalor

Denna uppsats granskar forskning som gjorts kring kopplingar mellan musik och matematik i en didaktisk kontext och diskuterar hur sådana kopplingar kan användas i musikundervisning i årskurs 1–6 för att förbättra elevers matematikkunskaper. Syftet är att belysa likheter mellan musik och matematik och ta reda om och i så fall hur en konkretisering av och ett fokus på dessa likheter kan gynna elevers lärande i matematik. Resultatet visar att det finns flera olika sätt på vilka musikundervisning kan leda till att elever presterar bättre i matematik. Tydligast effekt verkar uppstå för lågpresterande elever och när likheter mellan ämnena uttrycks explicit. Några av de granskade studierna har inte sett samma effekt på lärande, medan andra ser endast en korrelation mellan musikutövande och matematikförmågor, alternativt upptäcker andra förmågor som möjligen medierar en effekt från musikutövande till matematikförmågor. Med hjälp av det sociokulturella perspektivet och Gardners teori om multipla intelligenser diskuteras vad som kan göra att effekten uppstår. Diskussionen leder fram till en modell som gör anspråk på att förklara att musikutövande över tid tillsammans med någon ytterligare påverkan kan leda till ökade matematiska förmågor.

A fim de colaborar com o conhecimento dos vários aspectos das diferentes populações e suas interações para o manejo e conservação dos recursos naturais, foram analisadas a dinâmica populacional e a dieta de três espécies do gênero Stellifer (Sciaenidae), coletadas de agosto de 2003 a outubro de 2004 em áreas rasas da Enseada de Caraguatatuba, com influência mínima dos rios e estuários da região. Os indivíduos de Stellifer rastrifer (n=3183), S. brasiliensis (n=357) e S. stellifer (n=116) concentraram-se em geral na porção sul da enseada e houve diferença entre o tamanho das três espécies (S. rastrifer > S. stellifer > S. brasiliensis), que apresentaram um padrão de variação do comprimento ao longo do tempo bastante semelhante. Todas se mostraram essencialmente carcinófagas, com variação sazonal dos itens alimentares e alta sobreposição alimentar entre elas. Stellifer rastrifer permitiu uma análise de aspectos reprodutivos e de crescimento. A quantidade de fêmeas com gônadas em maturação e maduras foi muito pequena, bem como os valores do índice gonadossomático foram baixos indicando que a área não seja usada para desova. Os valores estimados para os parâmetros de crescimento (L?=20,9, K=0,37 e Z=2,81) indicam que haja uma segregação espacial entre jovens e adultos e que a taxa de mortalidade encontrada deva incluir em sua composição uma elevada taxa de migração dos jovens para áreas mais profundas, onde se supõe que completem seu desenvolvimento. / Intending to collaborate with some knowledge about ecosystems functioning for its suitable management and the conservation of natural resources, it was analyzed the populational dynamics and diet of three species belonging to the genus Stellifer (Sciaenidae), collected from August 2003 to October 2004, in shallow areas of Caraguatatuba Bay, where there was the least influence as possible of rivers and estuaries placed in the region. Species were Stellifer rastrifer (n=3183), S. brasiliensis (n=357) and S. Stellifer (n=116), wich focused at the southern area of the Bay. Species were significantly different from each other for size (S. rastrifer > S. stellifer > S. brasiliensis), although they have shown a quite similar pattern of length variation over time. They all fed upon basically crustaceans, with marked seasonal variation of food items and high dietary overlap among them. Stellifer rastrifer abundance allowed reproductive aspects analysis and the determination of growth parameters. The number of mature gonads in females was very small and gonadosomatic index values throughout the year were low, thus indicating that it is not a sapwn area. The growth parameters calculated (L?=20.9, K=0.37 and Z=2,81) indicate that there is a spatial segregation by size and that the mortality rate must, therefore, include a high rate of older individuals migration to deeper areas, where it is assumed that they complete their development.