Tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) are in danger of extinction. Their populations have declined from ~100,000 to only ~3,000 individuals in a century and their habitat has shrunk to less than 7% of the historic range. Of the five extant tiger subspecies, the Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae Pocock, 1929) is the most seriously threatened. Currently determined as Critically Endangered under IUCN criteria, the Sumatran tiger is likely to become extinct unless effective conservation measures are enacted. Threats to the tiger include habitat destruction, killing due to conflict with humans and livestock, and poaching for illegal wildlife trade. Long-term survival of Sumatran tigers depends largely on the effectiveness of current conservation efforts in every tiger landscape. Successful conservation and management require accurate information on ecology of the species upon which decisions can be based. This study investigated basic ecological aspects of tigers and developed strategies for management and restoration to improve tiger viability in the Central Sumatra landscape. This landscape is comprised of natural forests and plantations managed for timber and agricultural commodities. The first chapter assesses the variation in tiger abundance across forest types in Southern Riau, and over time in Tesso Nilo National Park, all in Central Sumatra. Using camera traps, my team and I systematically sampled five blocks representing three major forest types in the region: peat land, flat lowland, and hilly lowland. I found that tiger abundance varied by forest type and through time. Excluding two sampling blocks where no tigers were photographed, the lowest tiger density was in peat land forest of Kerumutan, and the highest density was in the flat lowland forest of Tesso Nilo. Repeated sampling in the newly established Tesso Nilo National Park documented a trend of increasing tiger density (SE) from 0.90 (0.38) individuals/100 km2 in 2005 to 1.70 (0.66) individuals/100 km2 in 2008. Overall, tiger densities from this study were lower than most previous estimates from other parts of Sumatra. The trend of increasing tiger density in Tesso Nilo, however, suggests that the tiger population could be augmented by protection of habitats that were previously logged and severely disturbed. The second chapter examines the occupancy and habitat-use of the tiger across the major landcover types (natural forest, acacia plantation, oilpalm plantation, rubber plantation, and mixed agriculture). I found that tigers used some plantation areas, although they significantly preferred forests over plantations. In all landcover types, sites with tiger detections had thicker understory cover than sites without tiger detection. Modeling tiger occupancy while recognizing that probability of detection is not always perfect, I found that tiger occupancy covaried positively and significantly with altitude and negatively, but not significantly, with distance-to-forest-cores. Probability of habitat use by tigers covaried positively and significantly with understory cover and altitude, and negatively and significantly with human settlement and landcover rank. The results suggested that with adjustments in plantation management, tigers could use or roam through plantations within the habitat mosaic provided that the plantations had adequate understory cover and low level of human activity. They also could use riparian forests (as corridors) and smaller forest patches (as stepping stones) to travel between the main habitat patches across the forest and plantation landscape. The third chapter investigates the ecological characteristics and possible inter-specific interactions among wild felids, including tigers and smaller cats, based on data collected using systematic camera trapping in combination with information on their natural history. I found that despite overlap in resource needs of the five felid species, each appears adapted to specific environmental conditions allowing coexistence with other felids. The five felid species used statistically different elevations, with the golden cat found to inhabit the highest elevation. Two-species occupancy models showed that only leopard cats were found to co-occur with other felid species more frequently than expected by chance under independence. Species of similar size or eating similar-sized prey generally tended to have low coefficients of temporal activity overlap, suggesting avoidance. Temporal avoidance is likely occurring in three pairs of felids, namely clouded leopards and golden cats, clouded leopards and marbled cats, and marbled cats and leopard cats. Based on the differences in morphological and ecological characteristics, and on patterns of spatial and temporal occurrence, I identified six possible mechanisms by which felids in Central Sumatra maintain coexistence. I discussed the implications of this study for management, focusing on how to balance diversity and abundance of felids. The fourth chapter presents the tiger distribution models as a case study to illustrate the importance of accounting for uncertainty in species distribution mapping. I applied four modeling approaches, differing in how the response variable (tiger presence) is constructed and used in the models. I compared the performance and output of different models based on the relative importance of variables, descriptive statistics of the predictions, cross comparison between models using an error matrix, and validation using tiger presence data collected from independent surveys. All models consistently identified forest area within the grid as one of the most important variables explaining tiger probability of occurrence. Three models identified altitude as another important factor. While the four models were consistent in predicting relatively high probability of tiger occurrence for high elevation forest areas such as Rimbang Baling and Bukit Tigapuluh, they generally had a lower level of agreement in predictions for low elevation areas, particularly the peat land in the northeastern part of the study area. Based on the results of cross evaluation of the predictions among models and validation with the independent data, I considered the occupancy model to be superior to the others. If data collection format permits, I advocate the use of occupancy instead of the other modeling techniques to develop predictive species distribution maps. The last chapter constructs a strategy to restore the tiger population across the ecosystem of Central Sumatra through integration of knowledge on tiger ecology from previous chapters with consideration of the ecological conditions of the landscape in the region. The strategy combines existing knowledge of tiger conservation and regional ecosystem restoration. It recognizes the limitations and challenges of traditional nature protection and considers existing and new opportunities. Emerging opportunities and new mechanisms, such as direct and indirect economic incentives for nature conservation and restoration, are taken into account. These, coupled with increased awareness of the stakeholders, better policies and implementation of good governance, and the willingness and know-how to maintain coexistence with wildlife among the local people, are expected to support and accelerate the recovery of tigers and their ecosystem. / Ph. D.

The endangered northern long-eared bat (<i>Myotis septentrionalis</i>) has experienced severe population declines since the 2007 introduction of <i>Pseudogymnoascus destructans</i>, the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome (WNS). Due to continued mortality, failed recruitment, and range fragmentation, effective species conservation would benefit from local and regional research related to habitat selection and suitability, seasonal activity, and large-scale estimates of continued occupancy across the post-WNS landscape. In this dissertation, I explored maternity colony home range size and habitat selection, both coastal and interior seasonal activity patterns, habitat suitability, and species occupancy trends in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States. Research from the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, based on diurnal roost locations, revealed that core and peripheral home range estimates were large but comparable to areas of contiguous forest cover in other regions of the species' range. Prior to juvenile volancy, female northern long-eared bats selected red maple (<i>Acer rubrum</i>), water ash (<i>Fraxinus caroliniana</i>), and loblolly pine (<i>Pinus taeda</i>) as day-roosts, but then used sweetgum (<i>Liquidambar styraciflua</i>), swamp bay (<i>Persea palustris</i>), and water tupelo (<i>Nyssa aquatica</i>) after juvenile volancy. At the second-order spatial scale (i.e., home range within a region), roosting home ranges were associated with woody wetlands farther from anthropogenic development and open water. However, within the third-order scale (i.e., core home range within a periphery), northern long-eared bats selected woody wetlands adjacent to intact upland forests, areas containing shorter trees and occurring proximal to open water. Research utilizing passive acoustic monitoring on the Coastal Plain of both Virginia and North Carolina found that northern long-eared bat relative activity was highest in areas containing greater proportions of woody wetlands and upland pine-dominated evergreen forests. Conversely, the likelihood to record northern long-eared bats was associated with smaller proportions of woody wetlands and open water resources, emphasizing the importance of upland forests adjacent to these features. I also observed a higher probability of recording northern long-eared bats during non-winter seasons and when temperatures were between 10 and 25 °C, potentially highlighting an optimal thermoneutral zone for the species regionally. Research using presence data from the Monongahela National Forest (MNF) in the Central Appalachians of West Virginia found that northern long-eared bat habitat, whether occupied or not, was abundant (43.1% of the MNF) and widely dispersed. Northern long-eared bat habitat on the MNF was often characterized as mature, interior mixed mesophytic forests. Research using passive acoustic surveys associated with hibernacula in western Virginia found that northern long-eared bats were most active near hibernacula during warmer weeks of the fall swarm and spring emergence, when rainfall was low. Similarly, the probability of northern long-eared bat activity was highest near hibernacula during the spring/summer season. However, unlike relative activity, the likelihood of recording northern long-eared bats was associated with more heterogeneous, interior forests. Finally, research using a combination of long-term repeated and single-season clearance survey data from New England found that northern long-eared bat occupancy was highest on steep hillsides in contiguous forested landscapes with minimal anthropogenic development. My results also indicated higher occupancy of northern long-eared bats in warmer regions, particularly along the New England coastline and offshore islands. These findings collectively stress the importance of managing areas of large core forest to promote sustainable roost formation and productive foraging areas, often associated with dynamic ecotones, to support the survival and recovery of northern long-eared bats in the post-WNS Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. / Doctor of Philosophy / The northern long-eared bat was once one of the most common bat species in North America. However, due to population impacts caused by white-nose syndrome (WNS) the species is now recognized as endangered by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. In this dissertation, I explore habitat selection and suitability, seasonal activity, and occupancy trends of remnant populations of northern long-eared bats in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast of the United States, representing approximately 25% of the species' historical range. Specifically, I examined home range size and habitat selection of a reproductively successful maternity colony on the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, overwintering activity at both interior and coastal sites, habitat suitability in the Central Appalachians, and spatial occupancy trends across New England. My research found that reproductive northern long-eared bats actively selected for specific cover features and displayed notable shifts in roost tree selection throughout the maternity season on the Coastal Plain of North Carolina. My research also indicated that northern long-eared bats were more active during non-winter seasons, favoring moderate temperatures and areas of forested wetlands adjacent to evergreen forests in coastal North Carolina and Virginia. In Virginia, northern long-eared bat activity near mountain hibernacula was highest in areas of greater landscape richness prior to and after hibernation. Finally, my research from New England found that northern long-eared bat occupancy was highest in steeper, forested landscapes in the absence of human development. Overall, this research highlights the need to conserve and manage forest ecosystems to promote recovery of the endangered northern long-eared bat. Conservation and management efforts informed by population status, activity trends, and habitat associations will be invaluable in guiding species recovery efforts.

Agricultural intensification has deeply altered European agroecosystems, leading to the loss of traditional farming practices and the homogenisation of agricultural landscapes in the past decades. These changes are causing dramatic losses in farmland biodiversity across the continent. Agri-Environment Measures (AEM, an umbrella term for Agri-Environmental Schemes, Ecological Focus Areas and organic farming) are the main policy instruments of the European Common Agricultural Policy to counteract this crisis, but their efficacy is recurrently questioned. A systematic monitoring and assessment of AEM efficacy at the European level is lacking, and is hindered by data gaps on biodiversity and field-level land-use/land-management practices. The overarching objectives of this thesis were (1) to improve our understanding of the varying effectiveness of AEM and (2) to develop robust biodiversity model workflows for policy impact assessment based on pre-collected biodiversity data. I combined field-level data on land use and AEM adoption from the Integrated Administration and Control System with geodata on climate, topography and land cover for three agricultural regions in Europe: the Mulde River Basin in Germany, Catalonia in Spain and South Moravia in the Czech Republic. I used synthetic biodiversity data as well as bird occurrence data to investigate drivers of variation in reported modelled biodiversity responses to AEM: (1) the use of different land-use intensity (LUI) metrics, (2) the types of AEM and their species-specific scale of effect, and (3) the structural complexity of the surrounding landscape across different regions. I first used a virtual species approach to test how to comprehensively quantify LUI, and its effects on biodiversity, in spatially-explicit models. Further, I developed open-source modelling workflows to synthesise empirical evidence across different species and regions, using pre-collected bird observations from (sub)national databases combining multiple sources. The results of this thesis indicate that a multidimensional representation of LUI is crucial to accurately assess species-environment (and specifically species-AEM) relationships in agricultural landscapes. I found that increasing areas of fallow land, buffer areas and extensive grassland management were positively related to bird occurrences across most of the modelled farmland species in the Mulde River Basin. Different AEM had different spatial scales of effect, implying that a landscape-level perspective is needed to optimise the spatial targeting of AEM in a given region. Furthermore, when focusing on the red-backed shrike (Lanius collurio) as a model species, positive relationships between its occurrence and the area of extensive grassland management were stronger in structurally simpler landscapes (compared to complex ones) in Catalonia. However, there was no evidence of similarly landscape-mediated effects in the Mulde River Basin and in South Moravia. Regional differences may be due to baseline differences in LUI and landscape heterogeneity, or to differential resource selection by the species across its geographical range. These findings show that policy-makers need to regionally set clear conservation goals, as species’ responses to AEM vary across species and landscapes. The spatial targeting of AEM needs to be improved based on a region-specific understanding of how context-dependent factors such as landscape complexity moderate species responses to AEM. Future research in this area would greatly benefit from an increased accessibility of existing EU data on agricultural land use and land management. Technological advances in environmental and biodiversity monitoring provide new opportunities for improved spatial modelling, with increased spatio-temporal resolution, encompassing larger regions and more taxa. This knowledge will be crucial in informing the future design of EU rural policies, which should allow for regionally-targeted solutions while also pursuing transboundary management objectives for the conservation of species across borders. / Die Intensivierung der Landwirtschaft hat die Agrarökosysteme Europas tiefgreifend verändert und in den letzten Jahrzehnten zum Verlust traditioneller Anbaumethoden und zur Homogenisierung der Agrarlandschaften geführt. Diese Veränderungen führen zu einem dramatischen Verlust der Biodiversität in der Landwirtschaft auf dem gesamten Kontinent. Agrarumweltmaßnahmen (AEM, ein Sammelbegriff für Agrarumwelt- und Klimamaßnahmen, ökologische Vorrangflächen und den ökologischen Landbau) sind die wichtigsten Instrumente der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik der EU, um dieser Krise entgegenzuwirken. Ihre Wirksamkeit wird jedoch immer wieder in Frage gestellt. Ein systematisches Monitoring und eine konsistente Evaluierung der Wirksamkeit von AEM auf europäischer Ebene fehlen und werden durch Datenlücken zur biologischen Vielfalt und zu Landnutzungs- und Bewirtschaftungspraktiken auf Schlagebene erschwert. Die übergreifenden Ziele dieser Dissertation waren (1) die Verbesserung unseres Verständnisses der unterschiedlichen Wirksamkeit von AEM und (2) die Entwicklung robuster Workflows für die Biodiversitätsmodellierung zur Nutzung in der Politikfolgenabschätzung auf Basis von zuvor erhobenen Biodiversitätsdaten. Ich habe Daten auf Feldebene über die Landnutzung und Implementierung von AEM aus dem Integrierten Verwaltungs- und Kontrollsystem mit Geodaten über Klima, Topographie und Landbedeckung für drei landwirtschaftliche Regionen in Europa kombiniert: das Mulde-Einzugsgebiet in Deutschland, Katalonien in Spanien und Südmähren in der Tschechischen Republik. Ich habe simulierte Biodiversitätsdaten sowie Beobachtungsdaten zum Vorkommen von Vögeln verwendet, um die folgenden ursächlichen Faktoren für festgestellte Unterschiede in den modellierten Zusammenhängen zwischen Biodiversität und AEM zu untersuchen: (1) Nutzung verschiedener Metriken zur Quantifizierung der Landnutzungsintensität (LUI), (2) Arten von AEM und ihr artspezifischer Einfluss auf verschiedenen räumlichen Skalen, und (3) strukturelle Komplexität der umgebenden Landschaft in verschiedenen Regionen. Ich habe zunächst einen Ansatz mit virtuellen Arten verwendet, um zu testen, wie sich die LUI und ihre Auswirkungen auf die biologische Vielfalt in räumlich expliziten Modellen umfassend quantifizieren lassen. Darüber hinaus habe ich Open-Source-Workflows entwickelt, um empirisches Wissen über verschiedene Arten und Regionen hinweg zu aggregieren, indem ich vorhandene Vogelbeobachtungen aus (sub)nationalen Datenbanken mit mehreren Quellen kombiniert habe. Die Ergebnisse dieser Dissertation zeigen, dass eine mehrdimensionale Darstellung der LUI entscheidend ist, um die Beziehungen zwischen Arten und Umwelt (und insbesondere zwischen Arten und AEM) in Agrarlandschaften genau zu bewerten. Ich fand heraus, dass die Zunahme von Brachen, Pufferflächen und extensivem Grünland positiv mit dem Vorkommen der meisten modellierten Feldvogelarten im Muldeeinzugsgebiet verbunden war. Die jeweiligen AEM hatten, je nach räumliche Skala, unterschiedliche Auswirkungen, was bedeutet, dass eine Perspektive auf Landschaftsebene erforderlich ist, um die räumliche Verteilung von AEM in einer bestimmten Region zu optimieren. Wenn man sich auf den Neuntöter (Lanius collurio) als Modellart konzentriert, waren die positiven Beziehungen zwischen seinem Vorkommen und der Fläche mit extensiver Grünlandbewirtschaftung in strukturell einfacheren Landschaften (im Vergleich zu komplexeren) in Katalonien stärker. Im Einzugsgebiet der Mulde und in Südmähren gab es jedoch keine Hinweise auf ähnliche durch die Landschaftskomplexität bedingte Effekte. Diese festgestellten regionalen Unterschiede könnten auf unterschiedliche LUI und Landschaftsheterogenität oder auf eine unterschiedliche Ressourcenauswahl durch die Art in ihrem geographischen Verbreitungsgebiet zurückzuführen sein. Diese Ergebnisse zeigen, dass durch politische Entscheidungsträger:innen auf regionaler Ebene klare Biodiversitätsziele festgelegt werden müssen, da die Reaktionen von Arten auf AEM je nach Art und Landschaft unterschiedlich sind. Die räumliche Verteilung von AEM muss auf der Grundlage eines regionalspezifischen Verständnisses der Art und Weise verbessert werden, wie kontextabhängige Faktoren (wie beispielsweise die Komplexität der Landschaft) die Reaktionen der Arten auf AEM beeinflussen. Zukünftige Forschung in diesem Bereich würde stark von einem einfacheren Zugang zu verfügbaren EU-weiten Daten über agrarische Landnutzung und Bewirtschaftung stark profitieren. Technologische Fortschritte im Umwelt- und Biodiversitätsmonitoring bieten neue Möglichkeiten für eine verbesserte räumliche Modellierung, mit höherer raum-zeitlicher Auflösung, die größere Regionen und mehr Taxa umfasst. Dieses Wissen wird von entscheidender Bedeutung für die künftige Gestaltung der EU-Agrarpolitik sein, die regional ausgerichtete Lösungen ermöglichen und gleichzeitig grenzüberschreitende Managementziele für den Artenschutz verfolgen sollte.

The field of vector-borne disease research uses multidisciplinary approaches to help understand complicated interactions. This dissertation, covers three different aspects of tick-borne disease research which all focus on exploring tick-borne diseases in the non-endemic areas of Denton, County Texas and the state of Texas with a focus on Rickettsia spp. These aspects include tick sampling, testing ticks for the presence of Rickettsia spp., and creating species distribution maps of the Rickettsia spp. Rickettsia amblyommatis and tick species Amblyomma americanum.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) of the Caribbean are one of the world’s ‘hottest’ ‘biodiversity hotspots’. However, this biodiversity continues to be threatened by habitat loss, and now, by climate change. The research reported here investigated the potential of species distribution modelling (SDM) as a plant conservation tool within Caribbean SIDS, using Trinidad as a case study. Prior to the application of SDM, ancillary analyses including: (i) quantification and mapping of forest cover change (1969 to 2007) and deforestation rates, and (ii) assessment of the island’s vegetation community distribution and associated drivers were carried out. Community distribution and commercial importance and global/regional rarity were used to generate a list of species for assessing the potential of SDM within Trinidad. Species occurrence data were used to generate species distribution models for present climate conditions within the SDM algorithm, MaxEnt. These results were assessed through expert appraisal and concurrence with results of ecological analyses. These models were used to forecast suitable species climate space forty years into an SRES A2 future. Present and future models were then combined to produce a ‘collective change map’ which showed projected areas of species’ range expansion, contraction or stability for this group of species with respect to Trinidad’s Protected Areas (PAs) network. Despite the models being indicative rather than accurate, it was concluded that species’ climate space is likely to decrease or disappear across Trinidad. Extended beyond Trinidad into the remainder of the Caribbean region, SDM may be a crucial tool in identifying which PAs within the region (and not individual islands) will facilitate future survival of given target species. Consideration of species conservation from a regional, rather than an individual island perspective, is strongly recommended for aiding the Caribbean SIDS to adapt in response to climate change.

Prédire les réponses de la biodiversité aux changements climatiques anthropiques est devenu un champ de recherche avec des enjeux scientifiques et sociétaux majeurs. Mon travail de thèse a consisté à évaluer les impacts du réchauffement climatique sur un parasitoïde de drosophiles, Leptopilina boulardi, à une petite échelle géographique, le sud-est de la France. L'objectif était non seulement d'examiner l'évolution de la distribution du parasitoïde en réponse à une hausse des températures qu'il fallait préciser à cette échelle géographique, mais aussi d'appréhender les adaptations mises en place dans la zone de progression de l'espèce. Dans un premier temps, l'analyse de données d'échantillonnages et de données météorologiques m'ont permis de mettre en évidence une rapide expansion de l'aire de répartition du parasitoïde vers le nord, à un taux moyen de 90km/décennie, simultanément à une augmentation moyenne de la température de 1,57°C ces 30 dernières années, dans l'aire d'étude. Après avoir identifié les principaux facteurs environnementaux, structurant la répartition spatiale de L. boulardi, j'ai modélisé sa distribution potentielle dans le sud-est de la France, sous conditions climatiques actuelles et pour 2050, pour deux scénarios d'émission de CO2. En 2050, la distribution géographique de L. boulardi devrait considérablement s'étendre vers le nord sous l'effet des changements climatiques. Ensuite, en mesurant plusieurs traits d'histoire de vie selon 4 régimes thermiques fluctuants, j'ai montré que les populations de L. boulardi situées en limite d'aire de répartition sont génétiquement différenciées de celles situées dans l'aire centrale de répartition. Le fait que les populations marginales aient une valeur sélective plus importante à faible température suggère une adaptation locale des parasitoïdes dans la zone de progression de l'aire de répartition. La dernière partie de ce travail de thèse a pour objectif de mieux comprendre le processus de colonisation de L. boulardi. Pour cela, j'ai entrepris le développement de marqueurs RAD-sequencing sur 15 populations de cette espèce, distribuées le long d'un cline de latitude dans le sud-est de la France. Les nombreuses données issues du séquençage Illumina me permettront de connaître la structuration génétique de ces populations. L'ensemble de ces résultats obtenus au cours de ma thèse révèlent la force avec laquelle les changements climatiques peuvent impacter les espèces, principalement celles de haut niveau trophique, en provoquant des changements très rapide de distribution et des modifications génotypiques et phénotypiques permettant une meilleure adaptation locale / Predicting biodiversity responses to anthropogenic climate change has become a field of research with major scientific and societal issues. The main goal of my thesis was to evaluate the impacts of global warming on a Drosophila parasitoid, Leptopilina boulardi, at a small geographical scale, the South-East of France. The aim was not only to examine the change in the distribution of the parasitoid in response to rising temperatures, but also to understand the adaptations associated with this change. First, the analysis of insect sampling and meteorological data allowed me to demonstrate a rapid expansion of the parasitoid range to the north with an average rate of 90km/decade as well as a simultaneous temperature increase of 1.57°C on average over the past 30 years in the studied area. Following the identification of the main environmental factors structuring the spatial distribution of L. boulardi, I fitted a model predicting its potential distribution in the south-east of France, under the current climate and in 2050, for two CO2 emission scenarios. In 2050, the geographical distribution of L. boulardi should significantly extend northward as a result of climate change. Then, by measuring several life history traits under four fluctuating temperature regimes, I have shown that populations of L. boulardi located on the border of the range are genetically differentiated from those in the central range. The fact that marginal populations have a greater fitness at low temperature suggests local adaptation of parasitoids in the area of progression of range. The last part of this thesis aimed to better understand the process of colonization of L. boulardi. For this, I undertook the development of RAD-sequencing markers to genotype 15 populations of this species distributed along a cline of latitude in the southeast of France. Numerous data from Illumina sequencing will allow me to characterize the genetic structure of the populations. All the results obtained in my thesis highlight the force with which climate change may impact species, in particular those of high trophic level, causing rapid changes in distribution along with genotypic and phenotypic changes underlying local adaptation

<p>U&nbsp; radu&nbsp; je&nbsp; analizirana&nbsp; efektivnost&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih područja&nbsp; Srbije&nbsp; u&nbsp; sada&scaron;njosti&nbsp; i&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; na osnovu&nbsp; zastupljenosti&nbsp; povoljnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i centara&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; 116&nbsp; običnih&nbsp; vrsta&nbsp; ptica odabranih na osnovu 11 kriterijuma. Zasebno su evaluirana&nbsp; za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobara, međunarodno značajna područja za ptice (IBA) i mreža nastala preklapanjem dva tipa za&scaron;tićenih područja.&nbsp; Povoljna&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; istraživanih&nbsp; vrsta utvrđena su modelovanjem distribucije vrsta uz pomoć&nbsp; MaxEnt&nbsp; pristupa,&nbsp; a&nbsp; modeli&nbsp; distribucije projektovani&nbsp; su&nbsp; na&nbsp; četiri&nbsp; različita&nbsp; scenarija klimatskih&nbsp; promena&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; (2050. godina).&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreža&nbsp; pokazala&nbsp; se&nbsp; kao&nbsp; značajno<br />efektivnija za za&scaron;titu stani&scaron;ta istraživanih vrsta i centara&nbsp; njihvog&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; u&nbsp; odnosu&nbsp; na&nbsp; mrežu za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; dobara,&nbsp; a&nbsp; slična&nbsp; situacija predviđena&nbsp; je&nbsp; i&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti.&nbsp; Oba&nbsp; tipa za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; pokrivala&nbsp; su&nbsp; u&nbsp; proseku srazmerno&nbsp; mali&nbsp; procenat&nbsp; povoljnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta istraživanih&nbsp; vrsta&nbsp; (za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; &ndash;<br />10,4%;&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 21,9%)&nbsp; i&nbsp; dovela&nbsp; su&nbsp; do ostvarivanja konzervacionih ciljeva malog broja vrsta (za&scaron;tićena prirodna dobra&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 11; IBA&nbsp; -&nbsp; 37), dok&nbsp; su&nbsp; centri&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; istraživanih&nbsp; vrstasrazmerno&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljeni&nbsp; unutar&nbsp; obe&nbsp; mreže (za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 9,8%;&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; &ndash; 25,4%).&nbsp; Za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; područja&nbsp; nisu&nbsp; pokazale<br />značajno&nbsp; veću&nbsp; efektivnost&nbsp; za&nbsp; konzervaciono prioritetnt&nbsp; vrste&nbsp; i&nbsp; njihov&nbsp; diverzitet.&nbsp; Za&scaron;tićena prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; i&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreža&nbsp; u&nbsp; Srbiji&nbsp; značajno bolje&nbsp; pokrivaju&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i&nbsp; centre&nbsp; diverziteta &scaron;umskih vrsta i vrsta kamenjara, klisura i litica, dok&nbsp; su&nbsp; povoljna&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i&nbsp; centri&nbsp; diverziteta gnezdarica&nbsp; poljoprivrednih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta,&nbsp; naselja&nbsp; i vodenih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; izrazito&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljena. Stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; gnezdarica&nbsp; nizijskih&nbsp; poljoprivrednih<br />stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; naročito&nbsp; su&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljena&nbsp; unutar za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; dobara&nbsp; i&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreže,&nbsp; koja za&nbsp; ovu&nbsp; grupu&nbsp; nisu&nbsp; dovela&nbsp; do&nbsp; postizanja konzervacionih&nbsp; ciljeva.&nbsp; Razlike&nbsp; u&nbsp; efektivnosti za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; za&nbsp; gnezdarice&nbsp; različitih tipova&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; će&nbsp; se&nbsp; generalno povećavati,&nbsp; usled&nbsp; predviđenog&nbsp; smanjivanja<br />areala većine &scaron;umskih vrsta koje će se povlačiti u&nbsp; za&scaron;titom&nbsp; bolje&nbsp; pokrivene&nbsp; planinske&nbsp; predele&nbsp; i &scaron;irenja areala većine gnezdarica poljoprivrednih i&nbsp; vodenih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; na&nbsp; neza&scaron;tićena&nbsp; nizijska područja. Za deo vrsta među kojima dominiraju<br />gnezdarice&nbsp; brdsko-planinskih&nbsp; &scaron;umskih&nbsp; i&nbsp; drugih prirodnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; glavna&nbsp; strategija&nbsp; za&scaron;tite podrazumeva&nbsp; precizno&nbsp; pro&scaron;irenje&nbsp; granica sada&scaron;njih&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; uz&nbsp; upravljanje orentisano&nbsp; ka&nbsp; očuvanju&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i smanjenju&nbsp; iskori&scaron;ćavanja&nbsp; resursa.&nbsp; Sa&nbsp; druge strane,&nbsp; za&nbsp; većinu&nbsp; gnezdarica&nbsp; poljoprivrednih&nbsp; i<br />travnih stani&scaron;ta, naročito u nizijskim predelima, efektivna&nbsp; strategija&nbsp; bila&nbsp; bi&nbsp;&nbsp; definisanje&nbsp; potpuno novih&nbsp; i&nbsp; prostranih&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja orijentisanih&nbsp; ka&nbsp; održavanju&nbsp; povoljnog&nbsp; režima upravljanja&nbsp; i&nbsp; kori&scaron;ćenja&nbsp; prostora.&nbsp; Rad&nbsp; ukazuje<br />na velike mogućnosti kori&scaron;ćenja nesistematično prikupljenih&nbsp; podataka&nbsp; profesionalnih&nbsp; i amaterskih&nbsp; ornitologa&nbsp; uz&nbsp; primenu&nbsp; tehnika modelovanja&nbsp; distribucije&nbsp; vrsta,&nbsp; ali&nbsp; nagla&scaron;ava potrebu&nbsp; za&nbsp; pokretanjem&nbsp; &scaron;irokih&nbsp; programa<br />sistematskog&nbsp; popisa,&nbsp; kartiranja&nbsp; i&nbsp; monitoringa običnih vrsta ptica.</p> / <p>The&nbsp; study&nbsp;&nbsp; analyzes&nbsp; the&nbsp; effectiveness&nbsp; of protected areas in Serbia presently as well as in the&nbsp; future,&nbsp; based&nbsp; on&nbsp; the&nbsp; representation&nbsp; of suitable habitats and centers of diversity for 116 common&nbsp; species of&nbsp; birds,&nbsp; selected on the&nbsp; basis of&nbsp; 11&nbsp; criteria.&nbsp; Nationally&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas, Important&nbsp; Bird&nbsp; and&nbsp; Biodiversity&nbsp; areas&nbsp; (IBAs) and&nbsp; networks formed&nbsp; by overlapping these two types&nbsp; of&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; have&nbsp; been&nbsp; evaluated separately. Suitable habitats of the species in the study&nbsp; were&nbsp; determined&nbsp; by&nbsp; species&nbsp; distribution modeling&nbsp; using&nbsp; the&nbsp; MaxEnt&nbsp; approach,&nbsp; and&nbsp; the distribution&nbsp; models&nbsp; were&nbsp; projected&nbsp; to&nbsp; four different&nbsp; climate&nbsp; change&nbsp; scenarios&nbsp; in&nbsp; future (year&nbsp; 2050).&nbsp; The&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network&nbsp; proved&nbsp; to&nbsp; be significantly more effective for the&nbsp; protection of habitats&nbsp; of&nbsp; studied&nbsp; species&nbsp; and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; their diversity, compared&nbsp; to the network of nationally protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; and&nbsp; a&nbsp; similar&nbsp; situation&nbsp; is projected for the future. Both types of protected areas&nbsp; on&nbsp; average&nbsp; covered&nbsp; a&nbsp; relatively&nbsp; small percentage of suitable habitats for most species (10.4%&nbsp; in&nbsp; nationaly&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; 21.9%&nbsp; in IBA)&nbsp; and&nbsp; meet&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; goals&nbsp; only&nbsp; for&nbsp; a&nbsp; small&nbsp; number&nbsp; of&nbsp; species&nbsp; (11&nbsp; for&nbsp; nationaly protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; 37&nbsp; for&nbsp; IBA).&nbsp; Diversity&nbsp; centers for&nbsp; species&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp; study&nbsp; are&nbsp; relatively&nbsp; poorlyrepresented within all three networks&nbsp; (9.8% for nationaly&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; and&nbsp; 25.4%&nbsp; for&nbsp; IBA). Protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; did&nbsp; not&nbsp; show&nbsp; significantly higher&nbsp; effectiveness&nbsp; for&nbsp; the&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; of priority&nbsp; species&nbsp; and&nbsp; their&nbsp; diversity.&nbsp; Nationaly protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; and&nbsp; the&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network&nbsp; in&nbsp; Serbia have&nbsp; a&nbsp; significantly&nbsp; better&nbsp; coverage&nbsp; of&nbsp; habitats and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; diversity&nbsp; for&nbsp; forest&nbsp; species&nbsp; and species&nbsp; of&nbsp; rocky&nbsp; habitats,&nbsp; cliffs&nbsp; and&nbsp; gorges, while&nbsp; suitable&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; diversity for breeding birds of farmlands, settlements and aquatic&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; are&nbsp; very&nbsp; poorly&nbsp; represented. Habitats of breeding birds of lowland&nbsp; armlands are&nbsp; particularly&nbsp; poorly&nbsp; represented&nbsp; within protected&nbsp; natural&nbsp; assets&nbsp; and&nbsp; the&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network, and this measure does not meet the conservation goals for this group of birds. Differences in the effectiveness&nbsp; of&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; for&nbsp; breeding birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; various&nbsp; habitat&nbsp; types&nbsp; will&nbsp; generally increase&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp; future,&nbsp; due&nbsp; to&nbsp; the&nbsp; anticipated range decrease&nbsp; for&nbsp; most forest species that will withdraw&nbsp; to&nbsp; the&nbsp; better&nbsp; conserved&nbsp; mountainous areas, whereas range of the majority o f breeding birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; farmland&nbsp; and&nbsp; aquatic&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; will&nbsp; be expanded&nbsp; to&nbsp; unprotected&nbsp; lowland&nbsp; areas.&nbsp; For some&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; species,&nbsp; mostly&nbsp; birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; hill&nbsp; and mountain&nbsp; forests and other natural&nbsp; habitats, the main&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; strategy&nbsp; implies&nbsp; precise boundaries&nbsp; extension&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; current&nbsp; protected areas&nbsp; with&nbsp; management&nbsp; directed&nbsp; towards preserving&nbsp; natural&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; and&nbsp; reducing&nbsp; the utilization&nbsp; of&nbsp; resources.&nbsp; On&nbsp; the&nbsp; other&nbsp; hand,&nbsp; for most&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; farmland&nbsp; and&nbsp; grassland&nbsp; species, especially in the lowlands, an effective strategy would&nbsp; be&nbsp; to&nbsp; define&nbsp; completely&nbsp; new&nbsp; and spacious&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; oriented&nbsp; towards maintaining a favorable regime for management and&nbsp; landuse. The&nbsp; study&nbsp; demonstrates that there are&nbsp; great&nbsp; possibilities&nbsp; of&nbsp; using&nbsp; nonsystematically&nbsp; collected&nbsp; data&nbsp; from&nbsp; professiona l and&nbsp; amateur&nbsp; ornithologists,&nbsp; for&nbsp; application&nbsp; in species&nbsp; distribution&nbsp; modeling,&nbsp; but&nbsp; also emphasizes&nbsp; the&nbsp; need&nbsp; to&nbsp; launch&nbsp; extensive programs for systematic inventory, mapping and monitoring of common bird species.</p>

Interannual variability of Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas) occurrence in the northern California Current System is largely unknown. In Oregon, the distribution of this versatile predator and what is influencing their range expansion from Mexico is poorly understood due to the recent nature of their "invasion" and a lack of monitoring. Humboldt squid are large predators that have the potential to affect ecosystem structure and fisheries because of their high-energy demands and ability to exploit a variety of oceanographic conditions and prey sources. Developing baseline distribution information is a critical first step to assess their potential ecological, social, and economic impacts, and to develop models to predict future range expansion. This study has two main objectives: (1) to document where and when Humboldt squid have been present in Oregon through cooperative fisheries research, and (2) to correlate the sightings with oceanographic conditions using a geographic information system (GIS) and species distribution modeling (SDM). I conducted 54 interviews with local fishermen and aggregated their squid sightings with available fishery-independent survey and fishery-dependent observer data from the National Marine Fisheries Service. I compiled a total of 339 Humboldt squid sightings, reported for the years 2002-2011 from the Oregon coast to 131�� west longitude. Correlation analyses were performed for Humboldt squid sightings and sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a content (chla), sea surface height anomalies (SSH), dissolved oxygen at 30 m depth (30 m DO), and sea surface salinity (SSS) using a GIS, nonparametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) habitat modeling, and maximum entropy modeling (Maxent). Results indicate that oceanographic conditions have the potential to influence Humboldt squid occurrence, and in Oregon, sightings vary temporally and spatially. Combining the sightings from fishermen and scientific surveys greatly enhanced the spatial extent of the data. Humboldt squid were most frequently observed between 124.4��W and 125��W in proximity to the shelf-break at the 200 m isobath, with peak sightings (116) recorded in 2009 and the fewest (6) reported in 2003 and 2011. The highest occurrence of Humboldt squid were observed at a SST of 10.5-13.0��C, 0.26-3.0 mg m����� chla content, -4.0-1.0 m SSH anomalies, 32.2-32.8 psu SSS, and at 3-4.5 ml L����� and 6-7 ml L����� 30 m depth DO. Maps of estimated likelihood of occurrence generated by NPMR were consistent with overlayed observations from fishermen, which were not used in the model because they were limited to presence-only information. An interdisciplinary approach that incorporates cooperative fisheries research and ecosystem-based management is necessary for monitoring Humboldt squid in Oregon. Traditional methods are insufficient because Humboldt squid are data-poor, highly migratory, and are main predators of many commercially important fisheries in Oregon. Based on my findings, sightings recorded by fishermen covered a much larger area over a longer time frame than the scientific survey and observer data, and excluding their knowledge would have led to a different interpretation of Humboldt squid distribution and environmental tolerances. Although there is uncertainty in the data from potential map bias or misidentification of smaller Humboldt squid, incorporating sightings from fishermen with traditional fisheries research increases the quantity and quality of information. Cooperative monitoring for Humboldt squid could include training in species identification and sea condition reporting in logbooks. Future "invasions" are likely, and more eyes on the water will improve our understanding of the behavior and impacts of Humboldt squid on coastal resources. / Graduation date: 2013

The work describes the processing and analysis of remote sensing time series data for a comparative assessment of changes in different tropical rainforest areas in East Africa. In order to assess the effects of the derived changes in land cover and forest fragmentation, the study made use of spatially explicit modelling approaches within a geographical information system (GIS) to extrapolate sets of biological field findings in space and time. The analysis and modelling results were visualised aiming to consider the requirements of three different user groups. In order to evaluate measures of forest conservation and to derive recommendations for an effective forest management, quantitative landscape-scale assessments of land cover changes and their influence on forest biodiversity patterns are needed. However, few remote sensing studies have accounted for all of the following aspects at the same time: (i) a dense temporal sequence of land cover change/forest fragmentation information, (ii) the coverage of several decades, (iii) the distinction between multiple forest formations and (iv) direct comparisons of different case studies. In regards to linkages of remote sensing with biological field data, no attempts are known that use time series data for quantitative statements of long-term landscape-scale biodiversity changes. The work studies three officially protected forest areas in Eastern Africa: the Kakamega-Nandi forests in western Kenya (focus area) and Mabira Forest in south-eastern Uganda as well as Budongo Forest in western Uganda (for comparison purposes). Landsat imagery of in total eight or seven dates in regular intervals from 1972/73 to 2003 was used. Making use of supervised multispectral image classification procedures, in total, 12 land cover classes (six forest formations) were distinguished for the Kakamega-Nandi forests and for Budongo Forest while for Mabira Forest ten classes could be realised. An accuracy assessment via error matrices revealed overall classification accuracies between 81% and 85%. The Kakamega-Nandi forests show a continuous decrease between 1972/73 and 2001 of 31%, Mabira Forest experienced an abrupt loss of 24% in the late 1970s/early 1980s, while Budongo Forest shows a relatively stable forest cover extent. An assessment of the spatial patterns of forest losses revealed congruence with areas of high population density while a spatially explicit forest fragmentation index indicates a strong correlation of forest fragmentation with forest management regime and forest accessibility by roads. For the Kenyan focus area, three sets of biological field abundance data on keystone species/groups were used for a quantitative assessment of the influence of long-term changes in tropical forests on landscape-scale biodiversity patterns. For this purpose, the time series was extended with another three land cover data sets derived from aerial photography (1965/67, 1948/(52)) and old topographic maps (1912/13). To predict the spatio-temporal distribution of the army ant Dorylus wilverthi and of ant-following birds, GIS operators (i.e. focal and local functions) and statistical tests (i.e. OLS or SAR regression models) were combined into a spatial modelling procedure. Abundance data on three guilds of birds differing in forest dependency were directly extrapolated to five forest cover classes as distinguished in the time series. The results predict declines in species abundances of 56% for D. wilverthi, of 58% for ant-following birds and an overall loss of 47% for the bird habitat guilds, which in all three cases greatly exceed the rate of forest loss (31%). Additional extrapolations on scenarios of deforestation and reforestation confirmed the negative ecological consequences of splitting-up contiguous forest areas but also showed the potential of mixed indigenous forest plantings. The visualisation of the analysis and modelling results produced a mixture of different outcomes. Map series and a matrix of maps both showing species distributions aim to address scientists and decision makers. The results of the land cover change analysis were synthesised in a map of land cover development types for each study area, respectively. These maps are designed mainly for scientists. Additional maps of change, limited to a single class of forest cover and to three dates were generated to ensure an easy-to-grasp communication of the major forest changes to decision makers. Additionally, an easy-to-handle visualisation tool to be used by scientists, decision makers and local people was developed. For the future, an extension of this study towards a more complete assessment including more species/groups and also ecosystem functions and services would be desirable. Combining a framework for land cover simulation with a framework for running empirical extrapolation models in an automated manner could ideally result in a GIS-based, integrated forest ecosystem assessment tool to be used as regional spatial decision support system. / Die Arbeit beschreibt die Prozessierung und Analyse von Fernerkundungs-Zeitreihendaten für eine vergleichende Abschätzung von Veränderungen verschiedener tropischer Waldökosysteme Ostafrikas. Um Effekte der Veränderungen bzgl. Landbedeckung und Waldfragmentierung auf Biodiversitätsmuster abzuschätzen, wurden verschiedene räumlich explizite Modellierungssätze innerhalb eines geographischen Informationssystems (GIS) zur räumlichen und zeitlichen Extrapolation biologischer Felderhebungsdaten benutzt. Die Visualisierung der Analyse- und Modellierungsergebnisse erfolgte unter Berücksichtigung der Bedürfnisse von drei verschiedenen Nutzergruppen. Um Waldschutzmaßnahmen zu evaluieren und Empfehlungen für ein effektives Waldmanagement abzuleiten, sind quantitative Abschätzungen von Landbedeckungsveränderungen sowie von deren Einfluss auf tropische Waldbiodiversitätsmuster nötig. Wenige fernerkundungsbasierte Studien haben jedoch bislang alle der folgenden Faktoren berücksichtigt: (i) Informationen zu Veränderungen von Landbedeckung und Waldfragmentierung in dichter zeitlicher Sequenz, (ii) die Abdeckung mehrerer Jahrzehnte, (iii) die Unterscheidung zwischen mehreren Waldformationen, und (iv) direkte Vergleiche von unterschiedlichen Fallstudien. Hinsichtlich Verknüpfungen von Fernerkundung mit biologischen Felddaten sind bisher keine Studien bekannt, die Zeitreihendaten für quantitative Aussagen zu Langzeitveränderungen von Biodiversität auf Landschaftsebene verwenden. Die Arbeit untersucht drei offiziell geschützte Gebiete: die Kakamega-Nandi forests in Westkenia (Hauptuntersuchungsgebiet) sowie Mabira Forest in Südost-Uganda und Budongo Forest in West-Uganda (zu Vergleichszwecken). Es wurden Landsat-Daten für insgesamt acht bzw. sieben Zeitpunkte zwischen 1972/73 und 2003 in ungefähr gleichen Abständen erworben. Mit Hilfe von überwachten, multispektralen Klassifizierungsverfahren wurden für die Kakamega-Nandi forests und Budongo Forest jeweils 12 Landbedeckungsklassen (sechs Waldformationen) und für Mabira Forest zehn Klassen unterschieden. Eine Genauigkeitsprüfung mit Hilfe von Fehlermatrizen ergab Gesamtklassifizierungsgenauigkeiten zwischen 81% und 85%. Die Kakamega-Nandi forests sind durch eine kontinuierliche Waldabnahme von 31% zwischen 1972/73 und 2001 gekennzeichnet, Mabira Forest zeigt einen abrupten Waldverlust von 24% in den späten 1970ern/frühen 1980ern, während die Ergebnisse für Budongo Forest eine relativ stabile Waldbedeckung ausweisen. Während eine Abschätzung der räumlichen Muster von Waldverlusten eine hohe Deckungsgleichheit mit Gebieten hoher Bevölkerungsdichte ergab, deutet die Anwendung eines räumlich expliziten Waldfragmentierungsindexes auf eine starke Korrelation von Waldfragmentierung mit der Art von Waldmanagement sowie mit der Erreichbarkeit von Wald über Straßen hin. Um den Einfluss von Langzeit-Landbedeckungsveränderungen auf Biodiversitätsmuster auf Landschaftsebene für das kenianische Hauptuntersuchungsgebiet quantitativ abzuschätzen wurden drei Datensätze mit biologischen Felderhebungen zur Abundanz von Schlüsselarten/-gruppen verwendet. Zu diesem Zweck wurde die Zeitreihe zunächst um drei weitere Landbedeckungs-Datensätze ergänzt, die aus Luftbildern (1965/67, 1948/(52)) bzw. alten topographischen Karten (1912/13) gewonnen wurden. Zur Vorhersage der raum-zeitlichen Verteilung der Treiberameise Dorylus wilverthi wurden GIS-Operatoren und statistische Tests (OLS bzw. SAR Regressionsmodelle) in einem räumlichen Modellierungsablauf kombiniert. Abundanzdaten von drei sich hinsichtlich ihrer Abhängigkeit von Wald unterscheidenden Vogelgilden wurden direkt auf fünf Waldbedeckungsklassen hochgerechnet, die in der Zeitreihe unterschieden werden konnten. Die Ergebnisse prognostizieren Abundanzabnahmen von 56% für D. wilverthi, von 58% für Ameisen-folgende Vögel und einen Gesamtverlust von 47% für die Vogelgilden, was in allen drei Fällen eine deutliche Überschreitung der Waldverlustrate von 31% darstellt. Zusätzliche Extrapolationen basierend auf Szenarien bestätigten die negativen ökologischen Konsequenzen der Zerteilung zusammenhängender Waldflächen bzw. zeigten andererseits das Potential von Aufforstungen mit einheimischen Arten auf. Die Visualisierung der Analyse- bzw. Modellierungsergebnisse führte zu unterschiedlichen Darstellungen: mit einer Reihe von nebeneinander positionierten Einzelkarten sowie einer Matrix von Einzelkarten, die jeweils Artenverteilungen zeigen, sollen Wissenschaftler und Entscheidungsträger angesprochen werden. Aus den Ergebnissen der Landbedeckungsanalyse für die drei Untersuchungsgebiete wurden Landbedeckungsveränderungstypen generiert und jeweils in einer synthetischen Karte dargestellt, die hauptsächlich für Wissenschaftler gedacht sind. Um die wesentlichen Waldveränderungen auch auf einfache Weise zu den Entscheidungsträgern zu kommunizieren, wurden zusätzliche Karten erstellt, die nur eine aggregierte Klasse „Waldbedeckung“ zeigen und jeweils auf drei Zeitschritte der Zeitreihen begrenzt sind. Zusätzlich wurde ein leicht zu bedienendes Visualisierungstool entwickelt, das für Wissenschaftler, Entscheidungsträger und die lokale Bevölkerung gedacht ist. Für die Zukunft wäre eine umfassendere Abschätzung unter Berücksichtigung zusätzlicher Arten/-gruppen sowie auch Ökosystemfunktionen und –dienstleistungen wünschenswert. Die Verknüpfung einer Applikation zur Landbedeckungsmodellierung mit einer Applikation zur Ausführung von empirischen Extrapolationsmodellen (in stärkerem Maße automatisiert als in dieser Arbeit) könnte im Idealfall in ein GIS-basiertes Tool zur integrativen Bewertung von Waldökosystemen münden, das dann als räumliches Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem verwendet werden könnte.

Over the last 3 decades, freshwater aquaculture has become one of the most important food industries. However the constant introduction of a reduced number of very successful species for aquaculture has been identified as one of the main activities related to the alarming decline of fish biodiversity worldwide. This issue has raised awareness amongst the scientific community, governmental authorities and the general public towards freshwater fish biodiversity. This new awareness has promoted the development of “green” markets and environmentally friendly strategies, aiming for a reliable production of protein sources. The development of native species aquaculture has been presented as a strong alternative for sustainable aquaculture and the protection of biodiversity. However, it seems clear that unplanned native species aquaculture developments can be as detrimental on local biodiversity as the introduction of exotic fish, if not more dangerous. Therefore, the advantages and disadvantages of native species aquaculture have to be clearly analysed before any aquaculture development. This study aimed to establish a philosophical background regarding the use of native fish species in aquaculture in contrast to the introduction of exotic species that may compete for a similar niche as food in local markets. The main ecological impacts that exotic fish species may have on natives, such as competition, predation, and hybridization were discussed. In addition, a well planned native species Aquaculture Strategy for the Protection of Biodiversity was produced, at catchment level, within a Geographic Information System (GIS). For the development of the native species aquaculture strategy in central Mexico, four species of Atherinids (Chirostoma estor, C. Jordani, C. promelas and Atherinella balsana) and two species of native Ictalurids (Ictalurus balsanus and Ictalurus dugesii) were included in this study. These six species are relatively new to aquaculture and they were selected on the basis of their importance in local fisheries and markets in their native basins of the Lerma-Santiago and Balsas rivers. Both of these basins are of great importance in central Mexico, not only because of their biodiversity but also because of their high human population densities and socio-economic status. The use of Geographic Information Systems was a fundamental factor in the development of the native species aquaculture strategy at catchment level, consisting of site suitability models (SSM) for each species in their corresponding native catchments. Overall, SSM identified 13,916 km2 and 11,178 km2 highly suitable for aquaculture of the studied Atherinids and Ictalurids respectively, based on Water, Soil and Terrain, Infrastructure and Risk sub-models. A set of predictive species distribution models (PSDM), which related ecological characteristics for each studied species with relevant environmental and topographic parameters into a GIS, were also produced. Such models were developed for the establishment of potential natural ranges of distribution for each species, as well as their potential to become exotic in new environments, as a potential for invasion model (PI). Based on a partial verification, both PSDM and PI models produced results that were satisfactorily consistent with the known distribution of each modelled species. The combination of SSM and PSDM produced an Aquaculture Strategy for the Protection of Biodiversity model (ASPB) which identified the most environmentally friendly suitable areas for aquaculture sites. In contrast, the combination of the SSM with PI models into an ASPB model identified the site suitability potential for non-native species that are genetically close to native ones, in an attempt to reduce the known impacts that exotic species have on local biodiversity. In this way the ASPB model identified 7,651 km2 suitable for aquaculture of I. balsanus in its native Balsas basin and 15,633 km¬2 suitable for aquaculture of the non-native I. dugesii. ASPB models were produced for all the studied species. The final results were used to produce a set of guidelines for the development of sustainable aquaculture of native species at catchment level that cover genetic and ecological implications, as well as a well planned decision making tool produced in a GIS.