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<p dir="ltr">Mammalian mesocarnivores contribute greatly to a proper functioning ecosystem by exerting top-down population control on prey species. While many of these species can be legally trapped or hunted in Indiana, given their responsibilities in the ecosystem, continuous monitoring of Gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) and Long-tailed weasel (Neogale frenata) by researchers is important to identify potential signs of decline and produce specific management plans. Both U. cinereoargenteus and N. frenata populations are suspected to be declining based on reduced frequencies of observations and harvest. However, each species displays cryptic behaviors that can make observation and effective surveying difficult, which may make the development of accurate assessments of population health unfeasible. To enable better monitoring of populations of these species, I developed a model for potential U. cinereoargenteus habitat and build upon camera trapping survey methods for N. frenata in this project. I used community surveying tools in a presence-only software (e.g., MaxEnt) to develop a consensus model for U. cinereoargenteus potential habitat. I identified five landscape-based covariates (distance to mixed and evergreen forest, distance to low urban cover, distance to shrub/scrub cover, and percent total forest cover per km2 ) that contributed the greatest to predicting the presence of the species. The top models in my project indicated a positive relationship between predicted U. cinereoargenteus presence and forested land cover. Additionally, predicted presence was high when the distance to low urban and shrub/scrub cover was low. In the Southern portion of Indiana predicted areas of presence occurred where larger forest patches exist. This differed from the Central and Northern portions of the state where smaller fragmented forest patches exist. In these areas, predicted areas of presence predominantly occurred near shrub/scrub or low urban cover. These findings will allow researchers to target specific areas for effective surveying and develop species conservation strategies. I also evaluated the ability of three enclosed camera trapping systems (AHDriFT system, Mostela system, and MoHDriFT system) to detect N. frenata. These camera systems have been designed to detect N. frenata and potential prey items, doing so successfully in past studies. I deployed trapping systems in three sites throughout Northeast Indiana from February to November 2023. Camera systems collected data during the project period during unbaited and baited (using sardines) survey periods. During my project, I observed three unique detections of N. frenata, all 9 of which were in the AHDriFT system during unbaited survey periods (P = 0.99; Z = -0.005). During these survey periods when N. frenata were detected, the AHDriFT system accounted for greater prey visitation and prey species abundance than the other two trapping systems (P < 0.01; F = 12). The ability to attract large amounts of prey species while successfully detecting N. frenata in this project may point to the AHDriFT system as the best camara trapping system suited for monitoring this cryptic species. The results from my project provide researchers and state agencies with input for monitoring these two cryptic species. With both species in suspected declines, the research conducted in the two chapters can contribute to portions of future species management plans. By targeting specific areas with predicted suitable habitat for U. cinereoargenteus, agencies can better allocate funds and conduct more extensive species research in Indiana. Likewise, by deploying the AHDriFT system, researchers in Indiana can cost-effectively monitor, not only N. frenata populations, but also small mammal and herp communities with ease. The research in this project provides researchers and state agencies in Indiana with new tools and insights in monitoring these cryptic species that are critical mesocarnivores in the state’s ecosystem.</p>

En muchas áreas citrícolas del mundo el piojo rojo de California (PRC), Aonidiella aurantii (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), está considerado una plaga clave. En el Este de España se ha extendido durante las últimas décadas hasta cubrir una amplia extensión de cítricos. El control químico es difícil y frecuentemente es seguido de infestaciones recurrentes en poco tiempo, de la aparición de resistencias a diferentes productos usados para su control y de la eliminación de enemigos naturales en el campo. La mejora del manejo integrado y las técnicas de control biológico del PRC requieren conocer la composición de los enemigos naturales en cada zona climática, la fluctuación en su abundancia estacional, los niveles de parasitismo y depredación, como se distribuyen en la planta y como son afectados por el clima y el cambio climático. Aunque mucho se ha estudiado en laboratorio sobre los parasitoides Aphytis (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae), los principales agentes de control del PRC, todavía no se conoce qué combinación de enemigos naturales consigue el mejor nivel de control en el campo, cómo varían los niveles de parasitismo a lo largo del año o cómo los parasitoides se distribuyen y compiten en el campo en relación con el clima. La acción de los Aphytis, ectoparasitoides, es complementada en muchas zonas citrícolas por los endoparasitoides Comperiella bifasciata y Encarsia perniciosi (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae), los cuales pueden parasitar estadíos diferentes a Aphytis. Muy poco se sabe sobre el comportamiento y las respuestas biológicas bajo diferentes condiciones climáticas de estos endoparasitoides. Del mismo modo, el efecto de los depredadores sobre la población del piojo ha sido raramente estudiado. Actualmente, A. melinus, una especie introducida en el Este de España y el competidor superior, ha desplazado al parasitoide nativo A. chrysomphali de las zonas cálidas y secas ya que puede tolerar mejor las temperaturas cálidas del verano. / Sorribas Mellado, JJ. (2011). Biological control of California red scale, Aonidiella aurantii (Hemiptera: Diaspididae): spatial and temporal distribution of natural enemies, parasitism levels and climate effects [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/14794

Tesis por compendio / This dissertation focused in the comprehensive analysis of the capabilities of some non-tested types of Artificial Neural Networks, specifically: the Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNN) and the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Ensembles. The analysis of the capabilities of these techniques was performed using the native brown trout (Salmo trutta; Linnaeus, 1758), the bermejuela (Achondrostoma arcasii; Robalo, Almada, Levy & Doadrio, 2006) and the redfin barbel (Barbus haasi; Mertens, 1925) as target species. The analyses focused in the predictive capabilities, the interpretability of the models and the effect of the excess of zeros in the training datasets, which for presence-absence models is directly related to the concept of data prevalence (i.e. proportion of presence instances in the training dataset). Finally, the effect of the spatial scale (i.e. micro-scale or microhabitat scale and meso-scale) in the habitat suitability models and consequently in the e-flow assessment was studied in the last chapter. / Esta tesis se centra en el análisis comprensivo de las capacidades de algunos tipos de Red Neuronal Artificial aún no testados: las Redes Neuronales Probabilísticas (PNN) y los Conjuntos de Perceptrones Multicapa (MLP Ensembles). Los análisis sobre las capacidades de estas técnicas se desarrollaron utilizando la trucha común (Salmo trutta; Linnaeus, 1758), la bermejuela (Achondrostoma arcasii; Robalo, Almada, Levy & Doadrio, 2006) y el barbo colirrojo (Barbus haasi; Mertens, 1925) como especies nativas objetivo. Los análisis se centraron en la capacidad de predicción, la interpretabilidad de los modelos y el efecto del exceso de ceros en las bases de datos de entrenamiento, la así llamada prevalencia de los datos (i.e. la proporción de casos de presencia sobre el conjunto total). Finalmente, el efecto de la escala (micro-escala o escala de microhábitat y meso-escala) en los modelos de idoneidad del hábitat y consecuentemente en la evaluación de caudales ambientales se estudió en el último capítulo. / Aquesta tesis se centra en l'anàlisi comprensiu de les capacitats d'alguns tipus de Xarxa Neuronal Artificial que encara no han estat testats: les Xarxes Neuronal Probabilístiques (PNN) i els Conjunts de Perceptrons Multicapa (MLP Ensembles). Les anàlisis sobre les capacitats d'aquestes tècniques es varen desenvolupar emprant la truita comuna (Salmo trutta; Linnaeus, 1758), la madrilla roja (Achondrostoma arcasii; Robalo, Almada, Levy & Doadrio, 2006) i el barb cua-roig (Barbus haasi; Mertens, 1925) com a especies objecte d'estudi. Les anàlisi se centraren en la capacitat predictiva, interpretabilitat dels models i en l'efecte de l'excés de zeros a la base de dades d'entrenament, l'anomenada prevalença de les dades (i.e. la proporció de casos de presència sobre el conjunt total). Finalment, l'efecte de la escala (micro-escala o microhàbitat i meso-escala) en els models d'idoneïtat de l'hàbitat i conseqüentment en l'avaluació de cabals ambientals es va estudiar a l'últim capítol. / Muñoz Mas, R. (2016). Multivariate approaches in species distribution modelling: Application to native fish species in Mediterranean Rivers [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/76168 / Compendio

Attività antropiche e pressioni di mercato stanno rapidamente riducendo la biodiversità. Per questa ragione, conservare il patrimonio ecosistemico, tassonomico e genetico risulta fondamentale al fine di garantire potenziale adattativo alle specie, e, in ultima analisi, un futuro sostenibile per il pianeta. Al fine di minimizzare la perdita di biodiversità, numerosi metodi sono stati proposti per priorizzare ecosistemi, specie e popolazioni. Il presente lavoro di tesi fornisce in primo luogo una revisione di tali approcci, proponendo un albero decisionale volto a favorirne un corretto utilizzo. Secondariamente, la variabilità genomica neutrale del bufalo d’acqua (Bubalus bubalis L.) è investigata per mezzo di un pannello di marcatori SNP a media densità, rivelando due centri di domesticazione (India Nord-occidentale, Cina-Indocina) e possibili rotte di migrazione per gli ecotipi ‘river’ e ‘swamp’. L’adattamento locale ad East Coast Fever, patologia endemica delle popolazioni bovine in Africa Sub-sahariana, è stato inoltre studiato in bovini autoctoni Ugandesi (Bos taurus L.) combinando tecniche di modellizzazione delle nicchie ecologiche e di genomica del paesaggio. L’approccio ha portato ad indentificare PRKG1 e SLA2 come possibili geni di adattamento. I risultati sono discussi alla luce delle possibili implicazioni nella conservazione del bufalo e nella gestione delle risorse genetiche animali Ugandesi. / Biodiversity is quickly disappearing due to human impact on the biosphere, and to market pressure. Consequently, the protection of both wild and domestic species needs to become a priority in order to preserve their evolutionary potential and, ultimately, guarantee a sustainable future for coming human generations. To date, tens of methods have been proposed to prioritize biodiversity for conservation purposes. Here, an ontology for priority setting in conservation biology is provided with the aim of supporting the selection of the most opportune methodologies given specific conservation goals. Further, two case studies are presented characterizing neutral and adaptive genomic diversity in water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis L.) and indigenous Ugandan cattle (Bos taurus L.), respectively. In particular, two independent domestication centres (North-western India and Indochina) and separate migration routes are suggested for the ‘river’ and ‘swamp’ water buffalo types. In the case of indigenous Ugandan cattle, the integration of species distribution modelling and landscape genomics techniques allowed the identification of PRKG1 and SLA2 as candidate genes for local adaptation to East Coast Fever, a vector-borne disease affecting bovine populations of Sub-Saharan Africa. Results are discussed for their implications in water buffalo conservation and Ugandan cattle adaptive management.

La zone économique exclusive Mauritanienne est le siège d’upwelling et constitue une zone de transition où cohabitent des espèces d’affinités tempérée et tropicale. Pour comprendre le comportement spatio-temporel des assemblages démersaux du point de vue de leur composition, structuration, distribution de probabilité et diversité face aux préoccupations écologiques. Les facteurs abiotiques contribuent à la structuration des assemblages démersaux persistants au cours du temps. Les effets de la pêche étaient relativement faibles. Les trajectoires temporelles entre les assemblages et les conditions environnementales ont été mises en évidence pour certaines années et des zones. Dans les types d’habitats, un groupe minoritaire d’espèces très agrégatives obéissant au modèle de distribution en log-séries de Fisher et un autre majoritaire peu ou pas du tout agrégatives obéissant au modèle de distribution binomiale négative tronquée ont été identifiés. La diversité spécifique peut être divisé en deux groupes distincts et complémentaires : la richesse spécifique et l'autre associé à l’équitabilité. Un seul composant de la diversité ne peut donc pas représenter la diversité des poissons démersaux de la zone étudiée. Les GLM des indices complémentaires ont montré essentiellement un effet temporel et l’interaction Année-Strates bathymétriques. Aucun effet de l’effort de pêche n’a été observé sur la richesse spécifique, ni de la concentration en chlorophylle sur l’équitabilité. Ce travail pourrait fournir aux gestionnaires et aux scientifiques des connaissances complémentaires sur la dynamique spatio-temporelle des assemblages démersaux exploités dans des écosystèmes d’upwelling. / The Mauritanian exclusive economic zone is the seat of an upwelling phenomenon and constitutes a transition zone where species of temperate and tropical affinities coexist. To understand the spatio-temporal behavior of demersal assemblages from the point of view of their composition, structure, distribution of probability and diversity faced to ecological concerns. Abiotic factors contribute in the structuring of persistent groundfish assemblages over time. The fishing effects were relatively low, although significant in some years and in some specific geographic areas. Temporal trajectories between groundfish assemblages and environmental conditions have been highlighted for some years and in some specific areas. In each type habitats, two species groups were identified: a minority group of species very aggregative well fitted by Fisher’s log-series distribution and another majority of species little or not aggregative well fitted by the truncated negative binomial distribution. Diversity indices analyzed reveal that this set can be split into two distinct and complementary groups: a group associated with the species richness and another group associated with evenness. One component of diversity may not represent the diversity of the groundfish in the study area. GLMs of complementary indices showed essentially a temporal effect and Bathymetric strata-Year interaction. No effect of fishing effort was observed on the species richness and neither was the concentration of chlorophyll a on the evenness. This work could provide managers and scientists to further knowledge on the spatio-temporal dynamics of groundfish species assemblages exploited in upwelling ecosystems.

O lobo-guará é uma espécie de ampla distribuição na América do Sul, tendo no Brasil sua maior área de ocorrência. No entanto, as modificações das áreas naturais principalmente destinadas à agropecuária tornam a espécie vulnerável à extinção. A investigação objetivou conhecer em larga escala a área de distribuição potencial gerada por atributos ambientais favoráveis e áreas adequadas à sua ocorrência nos biomas brasileiros e investigar como a espécie responde à estrutura da paisagem, avaliando os efeitos de ambientes modificados pelo homem na sua ecologia espacial, nos padrões de atividade e na movimentação. Modelos de distribuição de espécie foram gerados pelo Maxent, utilizando uma base de pontos de localização de presença a partir de 2000 para o Cerrado (Ce), Pantanal (Pa), Mata Atlântica (MA) e Pampas (Pp) e um conjunto de onze variáveis ambientais não correlacionadas (topográficas, climáticas e paisagísticas). Para análises de ecologia espacial, das atividades e de movimentação, utilizou-se localizações de telemetria (GPS) de animais habitantes de áreas protegidas (AP), e indivíduos em paisagens modificados (AM). Análises de áreas de vida (AV) foram realizadas utilizando o estimador AKDE e associadas com classificação da paisagem local. Os modelos de distribuição do lobo-guará apresentaram uma área de distribuição potencial de 78% do total dos biomas. Apesar de possuírem grandes proporções de áreas adequadas (Ce, 90%; Pa, 93%; MA, 65% e Pp, 6%), somente um pequeno percentual (4,4% do Ce e 4,7% da MA) possui adequabilidade ambiental acima de 50%. Dos atributos que favorecem sua presença, a altitude (para todos os biomas), a precipitação (Ce e Pa), diferenças de temperatura e uso e cobertura do solo (Ma e Pp) foram os mais importantes. Em nível local, animais apresentaram média de AV de 90Km2 em AP e 41Km2 em AM, uma diferença significativa (p<0,01) com áreas diretamente proporcionais ao percentual de áreas naturais na paisagem. Ainda, apesar dos padrões regulares de atividade não mostrarem grandes mudanças, o período de repouso foi significativamente maior (p<0,01) entre os animais AM (46% do dia) que em animais AP (25% do dia). Lobos-guarás de AP e AM não apresentaram grandes diferenças no deslocamento diário com média geral de 14km caminhados por dia, com comprimentos de passos de 1Km. Diferenças no comprimento de passo foram relacionadas à composição da diversidade de contato de classes da paisagem com a proporção de ambientes naturais no passo (quanto maior as variáveis, maior o passo). Passos menores refletem menor persistência de movimento interferindo no deslocamento diário. Com os resultados desse estudo identificou-se a MA e Pa muito importantes, mas o Ce como bioma mais adequado à espécie. Foram encontrados indícios de que a estrutura de suas AV, o uso da paisagem, as atividades e movimentação são afetados pela paisagem modificada. Isso pode comprometer a viabilidade populacional, interferindo na presença em uma área e refletindo no seu potencial de distribuição. As estratégias de manejo de uso do solo, e a recuperação e conexão de áreas adequadas são urgentes e necessárias para que o lobo-guará permaneça presente e funcional nas paisagens dos biomas brasileiros. / The maned wolf has an extensive distribution range throughout South America with Brazil holding the largest portion of this area. However, the species is presently under a vulnerable status due to natural habitats alteration especially from farming and ranching. This study aimed to observe in large scale the potential distribution area indicated by favorable environmental attributes and suitable habitats to its presence within the Brazilian biomes and further to investigate how the species respond to the landscape structure, evaluating the effects of human-modified landscapes on its spatial ecology, activity patterns and movements. Species distribution models were generated using Maxent with a database of presence-only locations from 2000 though 2015, of the Cerrado (Ce), Pantanal (Pa), the Atlantic Forest (AF), and the Pampas (Pp) biomes, and eleven uncorrelated environmental variables (topographic, climatic, and landscape-based). As for the spatial ecology, activity and movement analysis, GPS-based telemetry locations were used from animals inhabiting protected (PAs) and disturbed areas (DAs). Home range (HR) analysis was performed using the AKDE estimator and then associated with the landscape-classified image. The distribution models for the maned wolf showed a potential distribution area of 78% of the total biomes range. Despite the high proportion of suitable areas (Ce, 90%; Pa, 93%; AF, 65%, and Pp, 6%), only a small percentage of the biomes (4.4% for Ce and 4.7% for AF) presented values over 50% suitable. Concerning the attributes that favor its presence, the altitude (for all the biomes), the precipitation (Ce and Pa), the temperature differences and land use (AF and Pp) were the most important. At the local scale, maned wolves showed HR sizes (average) with significant differences (p<0.01) between the 90Km2 (PA) and 41Km2 (DA) with HR size directly related to the proportion of natural areas. Although the general activity patterns were not considerably different between PA and DA, the resting periods of DA\'s animals (46% of the day) were significantly different (p<0.01) than the period of PA\'s wolves (46% of the day). Animals did not show changes on the daily movement patterns, accounting with 14km in general average and 1km of average step length (no major differences as well). The variation on the step length was related to the association of the diversity of contacts between landscape classes with the proportion of natural classes at each step (as bigger the variable values, bigger the step). As a consequence of smaller steps, constancy of movement decreases. Considering the results, the AF and Pa outstand as very important biomes, however the Ce was indicated as the most suitable biome. Furthermore, the research indicated signs that the HR structure and the landscape use, besides the activity patterns and the movement are affected by altered landscapes. This might compromise the population viability, interfering directly on its presence in an area and affecting the species distribution. Thus, a proper land use management aiming the recovering of degraded habitats is an important strategy tor the maned wolf conservation, so the species can long last survive across the Brazilian biomes.

Le changement climatique et les invasions biologiques sont parmi les plus grandes menaces de la biodiversité et leurs impacts pourraient augmenter jusqu’à la fin du siècle. Parmi les espèces envahissantes, les fourmis sont un groupe particulièrement néfaste dû à leurs impacts sur les espèces natives, les processus écosystémique, la santé, l’agriculture et l’économie. L’objectif de cette thèse était de prédire les invasions de fourmis – en particulier avec le changement climatique qui pourrait favoriser les invasions en éliminant des barrières thermiques. J’ai utilisé trois approches complémentaires afin d’étudier le potentiel de différentes espèces à envahir : des modèles de distribution, des expériences comportementales et l’analyses d’une base de données de traits écologiques. J’ai modélisé l’aire favorable pour 15 espèces de fourmis parmi les pires, à la fois globalement, par continents, et dans les 34 hotspots de biodiversité. La distribution potentielle de seulement cinq espèce est prédite de diminuer (jusqu’à 35.8%) avec le changement climatique et l’aire potentielle diminue pour la plupart des espèces jusqu’à 63.2%. Les hotspots d’invasions de fourmis se situaient surtout dans des régions tropicales et subtropicales et ils correspondent particulièrement aux hotspots de biodiversité. Contrairement à ce qui est généralement admis, le changement climatique et les invasions biologiques n’agiront pas de manière synergique pour les fourmis. Par contre, les invasions de fourmis resteront probablement un problème global majeur, en particuliers dans les zones où les hotspots de biodiversité et les hotspots d’invasion se superposent. Les modèles de distribution ont identifié de larges zones de recouvrement entre aires favorables de plusieurs espèces de fourmis envahissantes. Dans le futur, ces espèces pourraient arriver simultanément dans les mêmes régions et entrer en compétition. Dans une série d’expériences, j’ai testé les différences comportementales entre 7 espèces de fourmis envahissantes (Anoplolepis gracilipes, Paratrechina longicornis, Myrmica rubra, Linepithema humile, Lasius neglectus, Wasmannia auropunctata et Pheidole megacephala). J’ai découvert deux stratégies comportementales différentes. Les interactions au niveau de la colonie ont suivi des processus démographiques plus complexes. De plus, j’ai mis au point deux expériences pour tester la capacité des fourmis envahissantes à explorer un nouvel espace et à exploiter des ressources. J’ai trouvé des différences significatives entre espèces et leur capacité à dominer par interférence comportementale était négativement corrélée à leurs capacités à découvrir et exploiter des ressources. Cette série d’expériences suggère que les ‘mécanismes’ d’invasion sont plus complexes que ce qui est généralement suggéré et que différentes espèces pourraient utiliser des stratégies comportementales différentes. Étant donné qu’il existe plus de 250 espèces de fourmis exotiques, il serait intéressant de pouvoir identifier à l’avance des futurs envahisseurs potentiels. Afin d’identifier des traits associés au caractère envahissant des fourmis, j’ai mis en place une base de données qui contient 2193 espèces de fourmis et 24 traits écologiques. J’ai effectué une analyse préliminaire de différences de traits entre fourmis natives et envahissantes qui a montré qu’il existe clairement des groupement distincts de natives et envahissantes, avec les espèces exotiques au milieu. Ces résultats pourraient servir de base pour construire un modèle prédictif des invasions de fourmis. Ces différentes approches (modèles, expériences, base de données) sont complémentaires car elles s’intéressent à des aspects différents du futur des invasions de fourmis qui sera vraisemblablement fortement influencé par le changement climatique. Le pires envahisseurs de demain ne seront probablement pas les même qu’aujourd’hui et les zones les plus à risque pourraient changer également. / Climate change and biological invasions are both among the greatest threats to biodiversity and their impacts might increase by the end of the century. Among invasive species, ants are a prominent group due to their negative impacts on native species, ecosystem processes, human and animal health, agro-ecosystems and the economy. The objective of this thesis was to forecast future ant invasions – especially in the light of on-going climate change, which is generally thought to favour invasive species by removing thermal barriers. I used three complementary approaches to study the potential of different ant species to invade in the future: species distribution modelling, behavioural experiments and the analysis of a database of ecological traits. I modelled suitable area for 15 of the worst invasive ant species, both currently and with predicted climate change, globally, regionally and within the world’s 34 biodiversity hotspots. Surprisingly, the potential distribution of only five species was predicted to increase (up to 35.8%) with climate change, with most declining by up to 63.3%. The ant invasion hotspots are predominantly in tropical and subtropical regions of South America, Africa, Asia and Oceanic islands, and particularly correspond with biodiversity hotspots. Contrary to general expectations, climate change and biological invasions will not systematically act synergistically for ants. In addition, I found that the impacts of climate change can change over time and even reverse the trend of the impact (i.e., an increase instead of a decrease or vice versa). However, ant invasions will likely remain as a major global problem, especially where invasion hotspots coincide with biodiversity hotspots. The species distribution models have identified large potentially overlapping distributions of several invasive ants. In the future, these species may arrive simultaneously in the same regions and compete with each other. In a series of experiments, I tested behavioural differences among 7 highly invasive ant species (Anoplolepis gracilipes, Paratrechina longicornis, Myrmica rubra, Linepithema humile, Lasius neglectus, Wasmannia auropunctata and Pheidole megacephala). I discovered two different behavioural strategies among invasive ants. Interactions at the colony level, exhibited more complex demographic processes and more variability. Further, I investigated resource competition and differences in resource exploitation. I found significant differences among species, with competitive abilities that were negatively correlated with behavioural dominance. This series of experiments suggests that the ‘mechanisms’ of invasiveness are more complex than previously thought and that different invasive ant species may use different behavioural strategies. Since there are more than 250 exotic species of ants, it would be interesting to identify potential future invaders. In order to identify traits associated with invasiveness in ants, I set up a database with 2193 ant species and 24 ecological characteristics. I performed a preliminary analysis of trait differences between native and invasive ants that shows clearly different clusters of invasive and native species, with exotic species in between. These results could be used as a basis to construct a predictive model of future ant invasions. The different methods used (models, experiments, database) are complementary in that they explore different aspects of the future ant invasions which are likely to be influenced by on-going climate change. The worst invaders of tomorrow may not be the same as today and similarly, areas most at risk are likely to change.

For the west coast of North America, from northern California to southern Washington, a habitat suitability prediction framework was developed to support wave energy device siting. Concern that wave energy devices may impact the seafloor and benthos has renewed research interest in the distribution of marine benthic invertebrates and factors influencing their distribution. A Bayesian belief network approach was employed for learning species-habitat associations for Rhabdus rectius, a tusk-shaped marine infaunal Mollusk. Environmental variables describing surficial geology and water depth were found to be most influential to the distribution of R. rectius. Water property variables, such as temperature and salinity, were less influential as distribution predictors. Species-habitat associations were used to predict habitat suitability probabilities for R. rectius, which were then mapped over an area of interest along the south-central Oregon coast. Habitat suitability prediction models tested well against data withheld for crossvalidation supporting our conclusion that Bayesian learning extracts useful information available in very small, incomplete data sets and identifies which variables drive habitat suitability for R. rectius. Additionally, Bayesian belief networks are easily updated with new information, quantitative or qualitative, which provides a flexible mechanism for multiple scenario analyses. The prediction framework presented here is a practical tool informing marine spatial planning assessment through visualization of habitat suitability. / Graduation date: 2012