This paper presents a method to value the residential real estate portfolio of an economy by summarizing the future discounted values of the net operating income. The motivation for this choice of subject is the concern for a house bubble in Sweden due to the double-digit rise in housing prices which the economy has experienced during many consecutive years. However, the method is general and can be applied anywhere where relevant statistics is available. The challenge to use an income approach to residential real estate valuation lies in the fact that there is no obvious net operating income, as the owner and the end user is in many cases the same person. To solve this challenge, we determine the maximum possible net operating income by taking the households’ disposable incomes and subtracting their expenses. This will be a fictional value for the maximum possible net operating income or the imputed income for real estate owners. When this fictional net operating income is compared to the mean prices of properties, a maximum potential yield to capital invested in residential real estate is extracted. The current number for this maximal potential yield on the Stockholm market seem to be 6,4 percent, 2017. The main contribution of this paper to the science of economy is that it presents a way to use classical fundamental valuation methods to evaluate the price level of residential real estate, that, due to lack of tangible net operating income is not as straightforward as the valuation of the commercial real estate market.

A temática dessa pesquisa tratou da expansão da urbanização a partir da implantação de Instituições de Ensino Superior (IES), cujo intuito foi avaliar a influência desse tipo de empreendimento no aumento populacional do seu entorno. A busca pela cidade é um fenômeno crescente e iniciou no país em meados dos anos 1950, onde atrativos ligados ao trabalho e renda incentivaram boa parte da população nesse processo. Portanto, a cidade se constituiu como um mosaico de diferentes ações ao longo do tempo e uma dessas relações são as ocupações populacionais no entorno das IES. Desde a sua criação, a função das Universidades tem evoluído: de uma instituição de ensino formal a uma agente criadora e modeladora de espaços. Como um espaço de produção do pensamento científico, a universidade também pode atrair a população não acadêmica para o seu entorno, auxiliando na produção e orientação do uso do solo no qual está inserida, como por exemplo, na mobilidade urbana, na geração de fontes de trabalho e na especulação imobiliária. A presente pesquisa buscou como estratégia de investigação o Estudo de Caso e analisou parte do bairro viamonense Santa Isabel, especialmente a vila Jardim Universitário, localizado na divisa com o Campus do Vale da UFRGS, este em Porto Alegre. Partindo da questão se o Campus do Vale influenciou na expansão da urbanização do seu entorno, os principais instrumentos de coleta de dados foram a entrevista e o questionário com os moradores locais, totalizando uma amostra de 354 pessoas Segundo 62,7% dos moradores da amostra, a UFRGS foi responsável pela expansão da urbanização no seu entorno. Embora quantitativamente os valores encontrados apontem essa responsabilidade ao campus, outros fatores também foram importantes, como é o caso do valor do uso do solo. Em um primeiro momento o bairro se constituiu como uma alternativa viável para a residência, devido o preço dos lotes e da localização próxima à capital, beneficiando principalmente a população com baixo poder aquisitivo que trabalhava em Porto Alegre. Em um segundo momento, no final da década de 1970 – a partir da construção do Campus do Vale – observou-se a expansão da urbanização com o aumento da população e a redução de áreas vazias para dar espaço à construção civil. Em campo analisou-se a grande relação que há entre moradores da amostra e os pontos de serviços oferecidos nas dependências da universidade, estes disponíveis para a comunidade, como é o caso das agências bancárias, e das farmácias. Além disso, a presença do campus universitário é importante na região para a geração de empregos e na dinâmica imobiliária, observada através do aluguel para os estudantes, valorizando a região. Mais notadamente, o terminal de ônibus dentro da universidade é um dos serviços mais utilizados pela comunidade não acadêmica, pois muitos trabalham na capital gaúcha e residem em Viamão. / The theme in this research treated the expansion of urbanization from the implementation of Higher Education Institutions (HEI), whose purpose was to evaluate the influence of this type of enterprise in the population growth in the surroundings. The search for the city is a growing phenomenon and began in the country in the mid-1950s, where attractions related to the work and encouraged good income part of the population in this process. Therefore, the city is like a mosaic of different actions over time and these relations are the population occupation in the vicinity of HEI. Since its creation, the role of universities has evolved: from a formal educational institution to a creative agent and molding spaces. As a scientific thought production space, the university can also attract non-academic people to your surroundings, assisting in production and direction of land use in which it operates, such as in urban mobility, in generating sources work and property speculation. This research sought as a research strategy the study the case and analyzed part of viamonense Santa Isabel neighborhood, especially Jardim Universitário Village, located on the border with Campus do Vale of UFRGS, this in Porto Alegre. Starting from the question if the Campus do Vale influenced the expansion of urbanization of its surroundings, the main data collection instruments were interview and questionnaire to local residents, totaling a sample of 354 people According to 62.7% of the residents of the sample, the UFRGS was responsible for the expansion of urbanization in its surroundings. Although quantitatively the values found point that responsibility to the campus, other factors were also important, such as the value of land use. At first, the neighborhood is constituted as a viable alternative to the residence, because the price of land use and the location close to the capital, mainly benefiting the population with low income who worked in Porto Alegre. In a second step, at the end of the 1970s - from the construction of the Campus do Vale - there was the expansion of urbanization with increasing population and the reduction of empty areas to make room for construction. On the fieldwork it was analyzed the great relation between residents of the sample and the points of services offered within the university, these are available to the community, as in the case of banks, and pharmacies. In addition, the presence of the university in the region is important for generating jobs and real estate speculation, observed through the rent to students, valuing the region. Most notably, the bus terminal within the university is one of the services most used by the non-academic community, because many work in the state capital and reside in Viamão.

Submitted by Alane dos Santos Viana (alane.viana@ucsal.br) on 2016-09-14T19:55:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Gabriella Faria - UCSAL 1.pdf: 9950599 bytes, checksum: 1980f5c7447730fec57c55e215a3a5d4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Rosemary Magalhães (rosemary.magalhaes@ucsal.br) on 2016-09-21T22:25:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Gabriella Faria - UCSAL 1.pdf: 9950599 bytes, checksum: 1980f5c7447730fec57c55e215a3a5d4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-21T22:25:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gabriella Faria - UCSAL 1.pdf: 9950599 bytes, checksum: 1980f5c7447730fec57c55e215a3a5d4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-18 / Este estudo, que versa sobre a dinâmica de ocupação territorial da zona costeira de Mata de São João e seus rebatimentos sobre o ambiente natural, na interface de fenômenos históricos, agenciamentos contemporâneos e heterogeneidades culturais, analisa a apropriação da natureza, configurada através da incorporação material e subjetiva por diversos grupos sociais, a partir de relações de poderes hegemônicos ou de focos de resistência, que se efetivaram em diferentes escalas. Através de uma multiplicidade de condicionantes, compreende-se que as alterações ambientais decorrentes de economias globais associadas a mercados de acumulação de capital, alicerçados nas políticas públicas protecionistas, possibilitaram ao mercado turístico e imobiliário a implantação de projetos desvinculados das questões socioambientais, engendrando novos valores que passaram a organizar a vida naquele território.

A temática dessa pesquisa tratou da expansão da urbanização a partir da implantação de Instituições de Ensino Superior (IES), cujo intuito foi avaliar a influência desse tipo de empreendimento no aumento populacional do seu entorno. A busca pela cidade é um fenômeno crescente e iniciou no país em meados dos anos 1950, onde atrativos ligados ao trabalho e renda incentivaram boa parte da população nesse processo. Portanto, a cidade se constituiu como um mosaico de diferentes ações ao longo do tempo e uma dessas relações são as ocupações populacionais no entorno das IES. Desde a sua criação, a função das Universidades tem evoluído: de uma instituição de ensino formal a uma agente criadora e modeladora de espaços. Como um espaço de produção do pensamento científico, a universidade também pode atrair a população não acadêmica para o seu entorno, auxiliando na produção e orientação do uso do solo no qual está inserida, como por exemplo, na mobilidade urbana, na geração de fontes de trabalho e na especulação imobiliária. A presente pesquisa buscou como estratégia de investigação o Estudo de Caso e analisou parte do bairro viamonense Santa Isabel, especialmente a vila Jardim Universitário, localizado na divisa com o Campus do Vale da UFRGS, este em Porto Alegre. Partindo da questão se o Campus do Vale influenciou na expansão da urbanização do seu entorno, os principais instrumentos de coleta de dados foram a entrevista e o questionário com os moradores locais, totalizando uma amostra de 354 pessoas Segundo 62,7% dos moradores da amostra, a UFRGS foi responsável pela expansão da urbanização no seu entorno. Embora quantitativamente os valores encontrados apontem essa responsabilidade ao campus, outros fatores também foram importantes, como é o caso do valor do uso do solo. Em um primeiro momento o bairro se constituiu como uma alternativa viável para a residência, devido o preço dos lotes e da localização próxima à capital, beneficiando principalmente a população com baixo poder aquisitivo que trabalhava em Porto Alegre. Em um segundo momento, no final da década de 1970 – a partir da construção do Campus do Vale – observou-se a expansão da urbanização com o aumento da população e a redução de áreas vazias para dar espaço à construção civil. Em campo analisou-se a grande relação que há entre moradores da amostra e os pontos de serviços oferecidos nas dependências da universidade, estes disponíveis para a comunidade, como é o caso das agências bancárias, e das farmácias. Além disso, a presença do campus universitário é importante na região para a geração de empregos e na dinâmica imobiliária, observada através do aluguel para os estudantes, valorizando a região. Mais notadamente, o terminal de ônibus dentro da universidade é um dos serviços mais utilizados pela comunidade não acadêmica, pois muitos trabalham na capital gaúcha e residem em Viamão. / The theme in this research treated the expansion of urbanization from the implementation of Higher Education Institutions (HEI), whose purpose was to evaluate the influence of this type of enterprise in the population growth in the surroundings. The search for the city is a growing phenomenon and began in the country in the mid-1950s, where attractions related to the work and encouraged good income part of the population in this process. Therefore, the city is like a mosaic of different actions over time and these relations are the population occupation in the vicinity of HEI. Since its creation, the role of universities has evolved: from a formal educational institution to a creative agent and molding spaces. As a scientific thought production space, the university can also attract non-academic people to your surroundings, assisting in production and direction of land use in which it operates, such as in urban mobility, in generating sources work and property speculation. This research sought as a research strategy the study the case and analyzed part of viamonense Santa Isabel neighborhood, especially Jardim Universitário Village, located on the border with Campus do Vale of UFRGS, this in Porto Alegre. Starting from the question if the Campus do Vale influenced the expansion of urbanization of its surroundings, the main data collection instruments were interview and questionnaire to local residents, totaling a sample of 354 people According to 62.7% of the residents of the sample, the UFRGS was responsible for the expansion of urbanization in its surroundings. Although quantitatively the values found point that responsibility to the campus, other factors were also important, such as the value of land use. At first, the neighborhood is constituted as a viable alternative to the residence, because the price of land use and the location close to the capital, mainly benefiting the population with low income who worked in Porto Alegre. In a second step, at the end of the 1970s - from the construction of the Campus do Vale - there was the expansion of urbanization with increasing population and the reduction of empty areas to make room for construction. On the fieldwork it was analyzed the great relation between residents of the sample and the points of services offered within the university, these are available to the community, as in the case of banks, and pharmacies. In addition, the presence of the university in the region is important for generating jobs and real estate speculation, observed through the rent to students, valuing the region. Most notably, the bus terminal within the university is one of the services most used by the non-academic community, because many work in the state capital and reside in Viamão.

This study aims to analyse the precrisis period on the oil markets with a primary objective of assessing the role of speculation in the commodity's price development and its volatility. First it depicts the rapidly increasing speculative activity on the futures market together with the parallel oil price surge. The speculation is initially proxied by non-commercial traders' positions and subsequently quantified by Working's T-index. The paper then uses speculative traders' positions and both spot and futures prices to test for Granger causality within the framework of VAR models. For the sake of consistency it also evaluates causal links between speculation and inventories level. Further the study investigates the speculation impact on volatility of oil prices by employing various approaches in volatility quantification including GARCH models. Contrary to expectations we find that the speculatio's impact on both prices and their volatility is rather insignificant. In the last chapter we therefore seek for an explanation of the oil price developments by examining the market fundamentals. The interaction of supply and demand finally gives substantial evidence for understanding the price developments in the precrisis period.

The goal of this thesis “Futures trading of commodities as a retail trader” is creation of investment suggestion, based on analysis of possibilities, markets and factors influencing the price. In the first part are defined basic terms and information for better orientation on the futures commodity market. In the next part are analysis of the major commodity markets, groups of commodities and detailed analysis of interest commodities – gold and silver. The last third part of the thesis engage in creation of strategy for trading of commodity futures on gold and silver, which is the basic element for the final investment suggestion.

PhD (Economics) / Department of Economics / This is the first study to investigate the impact of working capital management on the performance (profitability and value) of South African firms listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) before, during and after the 2008/2009 global financial crisis. Richards and Laughlin’s (1980) Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) theory was used as the theoretical framework for analysing and linking working capital management to firm performance. In addition, the study investigates how the separate working capital management components impact the performance of firms. The study used both accounting and market based secondary data obtained from I-Net Bridge/BFA McGregor database and the JSE for 75 firms for the 10 year period, 2003 to 2012. Panel data regression models were used in the analyses. The key findings from the study indicate the following. First, the average profitability (ROA) for the sample firms decreased from 27% (before the financial crisis) to 20.2% during the crisis period and increased to 25.9% after the financial crisis. Second, the average market capitalisation (firm value) decreased from R18.9 billion before the crisis to R16.3 billion during the crisis period, and thereafter increased to a high of R24.4 billion after the crisis. Third, the average firm’s CCC was 28.4 days before the crisis and decreased to 12.5 days during the crisis period and later increased to 16.2 days after the crisis. Fourth, and interestingly, of the four working capital management variables, only accounts receivable conversion period is significantly negatively related to profitability during the financial crisis. Fifth, the three firm-specific variables (size, financial leverage, and current assets to total assets ratio) have no significant relation with profitability during the crisis period. Sixth, the external variable, change in GDP growth rate, has a significant positive relation with profitability. This suggests firms perform better when the economy is booming and otherwise during economic downturns, which is consistent with economic theory. Finally, and perhaps the most important contribution is that the study found an inverted U-shape relationship between working capital management (proxied by cash conversion cycle) and firm value before the crisis. This implies that there exists an optimal level of investment in working capital for which the sampled firms’ value is maximized. At this point, costs and benefits are balanced. Thus corporate managers should aim to keep as close to the optimal level as possible and try to avoid any deviations from it that destroy firm value. On the contrary, the results have not established any such relationship between working capital management and profitability for any of the three financial crisis periods. Based on the findings, it is recommended that firm managers should aim at keeping as close to the optimal working capital level as possible and try to avoid any deviations from it that may destroy firm value. / NRF

MCom / Department of Accountany / The relationship between the Equity Market Risk Premium (MRP) and macroeconomic variables has been a subject of extensive discussion in the finance literature. The MRP is a central component of the main asset pricing models which are used to estimate the cost of equity which is mainly used in investment appraisal, performance measurement and valuation of equity assets. Past studies have identified inflation rate, interest rate, foreign exchange rate and political risk as the key macroeconomic variables that determine the size of the MRP. The test of the impact of these variables on the MRP have however been based mainly on data from developed countries and a few emerging countries. To the researcher’s knowledge, there are no studies that have investigated the impact of these macroeconomic variables on the MRP in South Africa. It is necessary to test the impact of these variables in the context of South Africa as these variables vary across countries. Using time series secondary data that was obtained from the SARB database, JSE database and World Bank database for the period 2002 to 2017, this study investigated the impact of these variables on the MRP in South Africa. A total of 192 observations per series of the inflation rate, interest rate, foreign exchange rate, political risk, JSE-ALSI and 91-days Treasury bill was used in the study. The data used were tested for possible misspecification errors that could arise from using a time series secondary data and the regression model was fitted using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. The misspecification tests and models were both implemented on STATA 15 software. The results shows that inflation rate, interest rate and foreign exchange rate have a negative impact on the MRP whilst political risk has a positive impact on the MRP. Furthermore, the result shows that the inflation rate is the only variable amongst other variable tested that has a significant influence on the MRP for the study period. The study, therefore, concludes that inflation rate has the highest impact on the MRP in the context of South Africa. The study recommends that inflation rate should be monitored and kept within its target of 3-6% amongst other variables tested in order to increase investors’ confidence in the security market and also foster economic growth. The main limitations to the study were the limited data sources and insufficient funds. / NRF

Ce mémoire interroge la place qu’occupe le personnage historique, Joris-Karl Huysmans (1848-1907) dans le roman Soumission (2015) de Michel Houellebecq. Située en France en 2022, l’histoire met en scène François, spécialiste de Huysmans. Afin de cerner le rôle de Huysmans dans l’histoire, nous nous sommes intéressée à l’amitié que François exprime pour lui, leurs affinités et leurs divergences. Les polémiques suscitées lors de la parution du roman nous ont poussé à également considérer la moralité de l’histoire. L’aspect temporel du roman, situé dans un futur proche, est important car il laisse supposer une comparaison. Ainsi, notamment la notion de politique-fiction - anticipation de faible amplitude -, ainsi que des concepts narratologiques empruntés à Genette - transtextualité, voix et mode -, ont fourni des outils d’analyse. De même, la recherche de Viard sur la vision politique de Houellebecq, et sa conception comtienne de la religion, a servi de guide. En premier lieu, nous avons ainsi montré que Houellebecq a créé l’illusion d’une réalité possible dans un cadre familier aux lecteurs, puis, en deuxième lieu, nous avons constaté que le narrateur est autodiégétique et la focalisation interne, ce qui nous a permis de faire le rapprochement entre le héros et la vie et l’oeuvre de Huysmans. Plus loin, l’association des caractéristiques de la politique fiction avec les fonctions testimoniale et idéologique du narrateur ont fait apparaître la figure de Huysmans comme plus largement le représentant de la décadence de la modernité. La vision antilibérale et critique exprimée par François rappelle donc le désenchantement dans la littérature « fin de siècle » dont Huysmans était un grand représentant. De plus nous avons constaté que si François et Huysmans ne partagent pas la même vision de la religion, ils partagent le même idéal conservateur de la femme et du couple. Enfin, ces éléments réunis, nous en sommes arrivée à la conclusion que plutôt que nihiliste, la moralité exprimée serait altruiste. / This essay interrogates the part played by the historical figure, Joris-Karl Huysmans (1848-1907) in Michel Houellebecqs novel Submission (2015). The story, set in France in 2022, revolves around François, specialist in Huysmans. In order to establish Huysmans role, we have focalized on François’s friendship, expressed by him, their affinities and their differences. The polemics brought on when the novel was published has also made us consider the moral of the story. The temporal aspect is important since it underscores a comparison between a plot set in the future and a historical figure. Here especially one notion of political fiction – speculation in a nearby future – has proven useful. It was furthermore the case of concepts in the field of narratology developed by Genette, intertextuality and metatextuality, voice and mode. Moreover, we have been guided by Viards theory regarding Houellebecqs political view as well as his vision on religion, inspired by Auguste Comte. Considered all together, this shows that Houellebecq has created an illusion of reality taking place in a familiar environment to which readers can relate. Further on, the narrator being homo-diegetic with an internally focalized perspective, makes it possible for us to conciliate the life of the hero with the life and works of Huysmans. We have also seen that the notions of political fiction, combined with the testimonial and ideological functions of the narrator, relates to the character of Huysmans as a representant of the decadency of modernity. Moreover, François’s anti-liberal and critical vision of France has a clear affinity with the disenchantment expressed in the 19th century, fin de siècle literature, of which Huysmans was a principal figure. We argue that although François and Huysmans don’t share the same vision of religion, they share the same conservative ideal of femininity and the couple. This all together has led us to the conclusion that the moral of the story rather than nihilistic is altruistic.

This essay examines the content in the Artworks: the arts & business journal with the aim to find out what economic models and business ideas are presented to be applied by the artists and the artworld. The method being used is a material context analysis, together with Marxist capitalist theories, with ‘speculation as a mode of production’ according to Marina Vishmidt, as a philosophical analysis tool. The results show that the opinions and suggestions that appear in the material correlates with the political and economic development of the modern western society: arts should work more closely with the business, and also it should be a business itself. Internet and technology appear as a main field of opportunities suggested for the artworld in order to increase their businesses and autonomy. The results of the analysis also show ‘speculation as a mode of production’ in action and explains how art and creative work can be measured and used in a business plan. / Populärvetenskaplig sammanfattning  Uppsatsen undersöker innehållet i tidskriften Artworks: the arts & business journal, för att se vilka förslag och lösningar som där i föreslås som ekonomiska modeller för konst och konstvärlden. Metoden som använts till undersökningen är en materialistisk kontextanalys, med teori där spekulation som produktionssätt med utgångspunkt i marxistisk teori om kapitalism har använts enligt Marina Vishmidt. Resultaten av undersökningen visar att aktörerna i materialet föreslår att konst och konstvärlden samarbetar mer med vinstdrivande företag, samt att de själva mer bör agera som företag. Resultaten sammanfaller med den för tiden aktuella diskursen om ”samhällets ekonomisering” vilket innebär att tidigare autonoma fält som konstens fält nu underordnats det ekonomiska fältet. Internet och teknologi framträder i undersökningen som en arena eller marknadsplats av möjligheter där de kreativa aktörerna kan förverkliga sitt skapande och nå ut till kunderna direkt utan att behöva vara beroende av andra parter. Uppsatsens resultat visar också på hur Vishmidts teori om spekulation som produktionssätt fungerar när konst och konstnärligt arbete ska mätas och användas i en affärsplan.