published_or_final_version / Statistics / Master / Master of Philosophy

In this paper we estimate the short-term and long-term relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for the sample of US and Asian markets during the period 2004 – 2014. Monetary variables include money supply, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and the consumer price index. All the data are monthly indices and have been examined using multivariate co integration analysis and Granger causality analysis. The empirical analysis employed provides evidence of a positive co-integrating short- run relationship between these variable with Granger causality found to run from stock prices to the exchange rate during the sample period in Japan. For US, significant relationships were not been established. The results for Japan confirm the conclusion of other studies that stock returns are significant predictors of short – run exchange rate movements especially in period of financial crisis. We also apply LS model in order to estimate a linear regression. / Στην εργασία αυτή θα εκτιμηθεί η βραχυπρόθεσμη και μακροπρόθεσμη σχέση μεταξύ των τιμών των μετοχών και των συναλλαγματικών ισοτιμιών για το δείγμα των αμερικανικών και ασιατικών αγορών κατά την περίοδο 2004-2014. Νομισματικές μεταβλητές περιλαμβάνουν την προσφορά χρήματος, τα επιτόκια, τις συναλλαγματικές ισοτιμίες και τον δείκτη τιμών καταναλωτή. Όλα τα στοιχεία είναι μηνιαία και έχουν εξεταστεί σύμφωνα με πολυπαραγοντική ανάλυση και την ανάλυση της αιτιότητας. Η εμπειρική ανάλυση που χρησιμοποιείται παρέχει απόδειξη της θετικής σχέσης μεταξύ αυτών των μεταβλητών με Granger αιτιότητα από τις τιμές των μετοχών προς την συναλλαγματική ισοτιμία κατά τη διάρκεια της περιόδου του δείγματος στην Ιαπωνία. Για την Αμερική, σημαντικές σχέσεις δεν έχουν τεκμηριωθεί. Τα αποτελέσματα για την Ιαπωνία επιβεβαιώνουν το συμπέρασμα άλλων μελέτών ότι οι αποδόσεις των μετοχών είναι σημαντικοί παράγοντες πρόβλεψης των βραχυπροθεσμων διακυμανσεων των συναλλαγματικών ισοτιμιών,ιδίως σε περίοδο οικονομικής κρίσης. Μπορούμε επίσης να εφαρμόσουμε το μοντέλο LS, προκειμένου να εκτιμηθεί μια γραμμική παλινδρόμηση.

Syfte: Syftet med studien är att med statistiska mått undersöka om företags aktiekurs reagerar på ett vd-byte samt se hur ledarskap påverkar företagets rörelseresultat ur ett genusperspektiv. Metod: Undersökningen är en eventstudie som innefattar åtta stycken företag. Eventstudiens estimeringsfönster omfattar 56 dagar innan eventfönstrets 29 dagar, där aktiekursens rörelse undersöks. Varje företags enskilda procentuella förändring i rörelseresultatet kommer att studeras två år innan och två år efter ett vd-byte har inträffat. Teori: Undersökningen utgår från effektiva marknadshypotesen, agentteorin och signalteorin. Empiri: Resultaten för aktiekursens abnormala genomsnittliga avkastning (AAR) och den kumulativa genomsnittliga avkastningen (CAAR) visas i diagram, detsamma gäller för företagens procentuella förändring i rörelseresultatet. En jämförelse dras mellan företag som har genomfört ett kvinnligt vd-byte mot företag som har genomfört ett manligt vd-byte. Slutsats: Aktiekursen för företag som har genomfört ett kvinnligt vd-byte har cirka 10 procent högre förändring i AAR än för företag som har genomfört ett manligt vd-byte. Aktiekursens lutning på CAAR för företag med en kvinnlig vd är starkare än för företag där det har skett ett manligt vd-byte. Vid undersökning av CAAR är även kvinnornas procentuella förändring högre. Den totala genomsnittliga procentuella förändringen i rörelseresultatet visar att i tre av fyra fall har de företag där en kvinna tillträtt vd-posten haft bättre procentuella förändringar än företagen där en man har tillträtt som vd. / Purpose: This study is to examine the statistical measures how a company's stock price reacts to a CEO change and how leadership affects the firm's operating results from a gender perspective.  Methods: The survey is an event study involving eight companies. The estimated window in the event study includes 56 days before the event window of 29 days, where the stock price movement is examined. Each company's individual percentage change in operating results will be studied two years before and two years after a CEO change has occurred  Theoretical: The study is based on efficient market hypothesis, the agency theory, and signal theory.  Empirical: The results for AAR, CAAR and the percentage change in operating result are shown in diagrams. A comparison is drawn between companies that have changed to a female CEO versus companies that have changed to a male CEO.  Conlusion:    The stock price of companies that have change to a female CEO is 10 percent higher in AAR than companies that have change to a male CEO. The gradient of the stock price of CAAR for firms with a female CEO is stronger than for companies with a male CEO. The study of CAAR is also higher for women than for men. The total average percentage change in operating results shows that in three of four cases, the companies with a woman as CEO had better percentage changes than firms with a male CEO

This thesis is an investigation into the relationship that exists between macroeconomic variables and the pricing of common stock under trending market conditions. By introducing a dichotomous independent variable as a way of distinguishing between periods of rising and falling thereby attaching an additional expected premium to each of five accepted sources of macroeconomic risk for participation in ‘Bear’ markets. 228 observations of the fourteen industry sub-groupings of former TSE 300 were examined separately. The ultimate results were obtained using the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) as the model to obtain factor exposures. The results show that there is no significant relationship between market trend and the pricing of common stock when the APT is applied. The final recommendation is that more research is needed.

This dissertation presents three different closely related topics on the value of eco-friendliness in the financial market. The first essay attempts to estimate hedonic stock price model to find a contemporaneous relationship between stock return and firms’ environmental performance and recover the value of investor’s willingness to pay of eco-friendliness. This study follows stock and environmental performances of the 500 largest US firms from 2009 to 2012. The firms’ environmental data come from the Newsweek Green Ranking, both aggregate measures: green ranking (GR) and green score (GS), and disaggregate measures: environmental impact score (EIS), green policy and performance score (GPS), reputation survey score (RSS), and environmental disclosure score (EDS). The results show a non-linear relationship between environmental variables and stock return, i.e. upside down bowl shape or increasing in decreasing rate. That means for low green ranking firms the marginal effect is positive while for high green ranking firms the marginal effect is negative. The investor’s willingness to pay (WTP) for a greener stock for firms in the lowest 25 green ranking, on average, is 0.0096% higher stock price. The second essays attempt to determine if a firm’s environmental performance affects future systematic risk. Systematic risk measures an individual stock’s volatility relative to the market price. This study also uses the Newsweek Green Ranking’s environmental variables. The results show significant evidence of a non-linear relationship between green variables and systematic (market) risk, but the shape is not unanimous for all environmental variables. The shape of the relationship for green ranking (GR), for example, is U-shape. This means that for the firms in the bottom rank, improving rank will lower systematic (market) risk, and for the firms in the top rank improving rank will increase systematic (market) risk. On average the marginal effect for the firms in the bottom and top 25 firms are -0.2% and 0.09% respectively. The third essay is the effect of a firm’s environmental performances on a firm’s idiosyncratic risk. Idiosyncratic risk measures an individual stock’s volatility independent from the market price. This study also uses the Newsweek Green Ranking’s environmental variables. The results show significant non-linear relationships between environmental variables and idiosyncratic risk, even though there is no unanimous shape among the environmental variables. In the case of green ranking, for example, it has U-shape; for the firms in the bottom rank, improving green ranking will lower idiosyncratic risk and for firm in the top green ranking, improving green ranking will increase idiosyncratic risk. On average the marginal effect for firm in bottom and top 25 firms are -0.4% and 0.2% respectively.

Access to abstract permanently restricted to Ball State community only. / Estimation and forecasting of time series data -- Fitting of Saudi stock price by deterministic models -- Determination and fitting of the ARIMA models for Saudi stock price data -- Evaluation of forecasts by cross validation. / Access to thesis permanently restricted to Ball State community only. / Department of Mathematical Sciences

Many studies have been performed on the short- and long-run abnormal returns to acquirers in acquisition attempts, but the topic of bidding wars is relatively unexplored. This piece performs an in-depth analysis of daily returns to both the public winners and losers in bidding war situations. It provides a counterargument to earlier findings that found that winners in bidding wars performed poorly compared to losers. I also fill in the gap in the analysis of short-term returns to paired winners and losers during and surrounding the bidding war. I find that winners perform significantly better than losers during certain critical periods in the bidding war, and this appears to signal the increased likelihood of the winner’s success. However, in the short-term, the market consistently misjudges the direction of the long-run benefits of the acquisition to the winner.

台灣擁有許多很好很賺錢的企業，這些企業形成高獲利投資的明星產業。為尋找台灣股市波動因素對股價的影響，與股票市場投資正確方法與目標，本研究試圖從高價電子產業股中以企業背景、產業特性、重大事件等依據研究出投資行為是否有跡可尋，進而擬定適當的投資策略，成為高價電子股是否可以追尋與研究之重要課題。爰此，本文旨在探討台灣股市波動因素研究與企業股價波動因素之關連研究，藉由電子相關類股研究以產業因素、大環境景氣循環統計變數及企業經營策略來進行討論研究，並透過次級資料分析及歷史資料事件分析，以高價電子股票來進行市場研究。研究結果顯示台灣股市波動因素可以經由企業經營策略、市場競爭資訊來源、景氣評估準則、重大事件特性與產業循環等方面予以適當解釋。此外，可將高價股企業股價波動因素研究分為三個區隔研究，並對此三個區隔研究目標研擬有效的投資策略。本研究之結果可藉由產業角度來分析股價波動因素有用之資訊，對台灣高價股價高股股價波動因素找尋一些投資策略的蛛絲馬跡亦有一定之對高價電子股之企業股價之參考價值。 / Taiwan and discuss factors affecting stock price fluctuations in quality companies by the corresponding industry structures,The existence of quality companies that are well positioned to benefit from the economic trends in Taiwan has developed into a unique industry for investment choice. In order to search for a proper method and objective for investing in the Taiwanese stock market, this paper attempts to infer a favorable investment behavior from the company background, industry characteristics, and event studies of specific growth stocks, and further proposes appropriate investing strategies. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to conduct stock market research with quality companies in Taiwan and discuss factors affecting stock price fluctuations in quality companies by the corresponding industry structures, statistical indicators for economic cycle and event studies. The result of this research indicates that stock price fluctuations in quality companies can be justified by company management strategies, information source from the market, evaluation guidance for economic cycle, characteristic of event studies and industry cycle. Moreover, the research in sock price fluctuations in quality companies can be divided into three individual research areas and three effective investment strategies can be proposed accordingly. In conclusion, this paper demonstrates that factors affecting stock price fluctuations can be explained from the perspective of industry analysis and would contribute in providing beneficial reference for proposing the appropriate investment strategies.

本研究挑選54檔台灣上市營建類股之股價為研究標的，以季資料的頻率探討股價與財報資訊及總經因子的關係，並分析償債能力的優劣是否影響實證結果。蒐集近二十年國內不動產相關事件及國際重大金融事件，將樣本分類探討，並使用事件研究法討論國際事件對營建股的影響。實證結果顯示，屬於財報資訊的每股盈餘、存貨，屬於景氣領先指標的股價指數、半導體接單出貨比及外銷訂單指數皆對營建股股價有顯著影響。而償債能力較佳的投資組合，模型有較佳的解釋力，償債能力越高，模型的解釋力及與股價顯著相關的變數越多。國內正面及負面事件在實證結果上沒有太大差異，顯著的變數為每股盈餘、存貨、半導體出貨比及核發建照面積。但在各國際重大金融事件發生期間，營建類股普遍皆有顯著負向的累積異常報酬率(CAR)。 / This study select the stock price of 54 Taiwan listed construction company as the subject of research. We investigate the relationship between stock price and the factors of financial statement and macroeconomic. We also investigate whether the solvency of each portfolio affect the original results. Collect nearly 20 years of domestic real estate-related events and major international financial events to classify samples and analyze it. Finally, we investigate the impact of international events on construction stocks by event study. The empirical results show that EPS, inventory, stock index, semiconductor B/B ratio, and export order index have significant impact on stock price. The model has better explanatory power in solvency-high portfolio. The higher the solvency, the more explanatory power of the model and the more significant variables associate with the stock price. There is not much difference in the empirical results of domestic positive events and domestic negative events. EPS, inventory, stock index, semiconductor B/B ratio, and issued area have significant impact on stock price. During the period of major international financial events construction stock generally have significant negative CAR.

Abstract Introduction: The effect of Environmental, Social and Governance issues on stock prices is highly debated in literature. Different authors state that ESG has an influence on stock price and company value while others state that it has no or limited effect. Purpose: The purpose of this research is to explain the effect of ESG changes on stock prices and add information to the debate between both sides if there is, or if there is not an effect from ESG on stock prices. Research questions: 1. What is the effect of changes in Environmental concerns in stock prices? 2. What is the effect of changes in Social concerns in stock prices? 3.What is the effect of changes in Governance concerns in stock prices? Methodology: Event study method with a sample size of 484 companies from the S&P 500 which will be analyzed for the period of 2015-2017, which gave 1.420 different events. These companies got ratings for Environmental Pillar, Social Pillar, Governance Pillar, ESG Controversies, ESG Score and ESG Combined Score. For each event the abnormal stock returns were compared with the rating changes. The data is taken from EikonThomsonReuters. Conclusion: The results showed no correlation between Environmental, Social and Governance rating changes and abnormal returns. Also, the combined ratings did not show any correlations. Therefore, our study will support and contribute to the side of researcher Friedman (1970), Jacobs et al. (2010), Walley and Whitehead (1994), Drobetz et al. (2004) and other researchers which state there is no correlation between ESG and stock prices. Limitations: The study is based on ratings provided by EIKON, we assumed they are a clear and correct reflection of the actual ESG within companies. The second limitation is the anticipation effect, the response of the stock market is based on unawareness from investors. If the bases where the rating changes on is already known than there is no effect from investors because they already anticipated the decreased rating. There are also a few companies excluded from the research because of missing ratings. Also, these results are based on the S&P500 and therefore do not have to be true for other financial markets. Keywords: ESG, Stock Price, Environmental, Social, Governance, ESG-ratings, S&P 500, Event Study, EIKON