The aim of the thesis was assess the usefulness of different methods of technical and fundamental analysis in the trading of securities on the stock exchange. Choose the appropriate investment strategy for a particular industry.First has been performed a calculation of the theory efficient markets. For this purpose has been used two tests, correlation tests and runs test. The theory of market efficiency was demonstrated. But still has been performed the calculation of active strategies.Then was made the technical analysis. We used moving averages and oscillators, RSI, ROC and momentum. Based on these tests, we can´t select an appropriate investment strategy.Final test was carry out with using fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis consist from testing addiction of revenue at coefficient alfa. Sector services shown 0. And at other sectors amount to possitive values. In last of all I advised pasive strategy.

The purpose of this thesis was to analyze selected sectors of the stock exchange through methods of technical and fundamental analysis and to find the most appropriate investment strategy based on the results. At first were subjected to corell and runs tests. These tests should have proven or disproven the existence of weak form of efficiency. In the fundamental analysis was chosen the method of comparation of alpha coefficient and average monthly revenues. The technical analysis tested of moving averages and monitoring the signals using oscillators. The last step was a comparison of investment methods and strategies, found investment strategy and made a investment porfolio.

I allmänhet anges merparten av aktielistor i alfabetisk ordning. Tidigare studier har visat att investerare tenderar att handla aktier som hamnar tidigt i aktielistan mer frekvent än aktie som förekommer sent i aktielistan. Forskning inom psykologi föreslår att individer som möter ett stort antal alternativ försöker hitta genvägar för att underlätta beslutsfattandet. Det leder till irrationellt beteende hos investeraren där den letar efter första acceptabla alternativet istället för att bearbeta all tillgänglig information som berör aktier i aktielistan. Därför när investeraren söker igenom aktielistan i alfabetisk ordning uppifrån och ner har tidigt placerade aktier större chans att bli valda. Vi kommer i denna uppsats undersöka om det finns ”alfabetiskt bias” på Stockholmsbörsen. Studien undersöker om det finns ett samband mellan aktiens placering i aktielistan och aktieomsättningshastighet eller Tobins Q. Vi undersöker också om det finns skillnad i marknadsvärde och namnflyt mellan aktier som förekommer tidigt på aktielistan och aktier som står sent på listan. Resultatet från studien har visat att aktier som kommer tidigt i aktielistan handlas mer frekvent (aktieomsättningshastighet) och erhåller högre Tobins Q än aktier som förekommer senare i aktielistan. Vidare visade vår undersökning att det inte finns skillnad i marknadsvärde eller namnflyt mellan tidigt och sent placerade aktier. Det innebär att det finns belägg för att aktielistor i alfabetisk ordning bidrar till irrationellt beteende hos investerare på Stockholmsbörsen. / In general, stock information is presented in alphabetical order by company name or ticker symbol. Previous studies have shown that investors tend to trade stocks that fall early in the stock list more frequently than stocks that are late in the stock list. Research in psychology suggests that individuals encountering a large number of options try to find shortcuts to facilitate decision making. This leads to irrational behavior, where investor is looking for the first acceptable alternative instead of processing all available information relative to shares in the stock list. Therefore, when the investor searches through stock list from top to bottom, early stocks have a greater chance of being selected. This study will investigate whether there is "alphabetical bias" on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. The study investigates whether there is a correlation between the stock's placement in the stock list and the stock turnover rate or Tobins Q. We also investigate whether there is a difference in market value and name fluency between shares that are listed early on the stock list and stocks that are presented late on the list. The result of the study has shown that stocks placed early in the stock list are traded more frequently (share turnover rate) and receive higher Tobins Q than shares that appear later in the stock list. Furthermore, our survey shows that there is no difference in market value or name fluency between early and late stocks. This means there is evidence that stock lists in alphabetical order contribute to irrational behavior among investors on the Stockholm Stock Exchange.

År 2007-2008 inträffade finanskrisen vilket skapade oro på den finansiella marknaden. Oron återspeglades i antalet svenska aktieägare som minskade successivt fram till år 2014. Därefter fram till idag visar statistiken att svenska aktieägare blir fler för varje år som går. En förklaring är för att digitaliseringen har skapat enklare lösningar för privatpersoner att börja spara i aktier vilket ökar tillgängligheten och inflödet. Ett ökat intresse och en ökad tillgänglighet behöver dock inte innebära en ökad kunskap hos investerarna, vilket talar för att det är relevant att dels förmedla kunskap kring aktier men framförallt identifiera den bästa investeringsstrategin som kan vägleda investerare. Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka om värde- eller tillväxtinvestering ger högst avkastning på Stockholmsbörsen och Micro-cap under 2012-2016. Studien tillämpar en deduktiv ansats tillsammans med en kvantitativ forskningsmetod. För att kunna ta reda på den bästa investeringsstrategin på Stockholmsbörsen och Micro-cap har sekundärdata i form av nyckeltal samt kurshistorik samlats in, bearbetats och analyserats. Med hjälp av nyckeltalen P/E och P/B har aktier kunnat kategoriseras som värde- respektive tillväxtaktier. Vidare kunde portföljer skapas av respektive kategori för att sedan vara jämförbara med varandra. Resultatet visar på att investeringsstrategin värdeinvestering tenderar att prestera bäst. Värdeinvestering presterade bäst oavsett om portföljerna bestod av aktier enbart från Stockholmsbörsen eller både Stockholmsbörsen och Micro-cap. Resultatet som erhölls visade att tillväxtinvestering presterar betydligt högre avkastning än värdeinvestering oavsett börs/handelsplattform dock utsätts en investerares kapital för så pass hög risk med tillväxtinvestering att när studien riskjusterar avkastningen är det värdeinvestering som presterar bäst. / The financial crisis during 2007-2008 concerned investors internationally. The Swedish investors’ concern was reflected in the number of shareholders which decreased until 2014. From 2014 and until today the statistics shows that Swedish shareholders are increasing. One explanation could be the digitization that created solutions for investors to buy stocks more easily. But an increased availability does not necessarily mean that the knowledge also has increased. This is one of the reasons for the importance of spreading knowledge to investors and identify the best investment strategy for guidance. The purpose is to investigate the investment strategies value investing and growth investing. To find out the best investment strategy the thesis has used the two ratios P/E and P/B and historical share prices. The stocks that are included in this thesis is both from Stockholm Stock Exchange but also from Micro-cap. The thesis has used a quantitative research method when gathering all the necessary information and a deductive approach in relation to the theories. By using the presented ratios, the thesis could categories the stocks in the respective strategy. The superior investment strategy is value investing which tends to perform the best risk-adjusted return during the time 2012-2016. Value investing tends to perform the best return regardless if the portfolio contains only stocks from Stockholm Stock Exchange or both Stockholm Stock Exchange and Micro-cap. The result showed that growth investing had the most extreme returns and would have won if the result did not adjust for the risk taken.

A presente investigação científica discorre acerca da análise comparativa dos segmentos Tradicional, Nível 1, Nível 2 e Novo Mercado da bolsa de valores brasileira. As bases do estudo estão calcadas nas relações entre retornos, risco e prêmios de risco em cada segmento. Para o alcance desse objetivo, foram organizadas carteiras teóricas, cada uma composta por ações de empresas listadas nos segmentos citados do mercado à vista. O intervalo de tempo delimitador dos dados amostrais compreende o período de janeiro de 2005 a dezembro de 2010 e possui características cíclicas - típicas desse ambiente de negócios - de crescimento, de queda brusca provocada pelos efeitos da crise de 2008 e de recuperação lenta na valorização dos preços das ações. Isso enriquece as conclusões ao se examinar comparativamente as referidas carteiras teóricas à luz de ciclos distintos do risco sistemático. As conclusões corroboram parcialmente os fundamentos da governança corporativa ao evidenciar que, de todos os portfolios compostos por empresas que adotam as boas práticas de governança, somente o Novo Mercado de fato gera redução das incertezas, acarretando a diminuição do risco e elevados retornos, absolutos e excessivos, relativamente ao portfolio composto por empresas listadas no Tradicional e à média do mercado, a qual é dada pelo Ibovespa. Os níveis 1 e 2, apesar das empresas que os compõem adotarem regras de governança corporativa, não obtêm resultados de acordo com as expectativas geradas justamente por desenvolverem processos de maior transparência e respeito aos acionistas. As evidências apontam que as razões do fato supramencionado residem no estágio inicial de desenvolvimento no qual se encontram o mercado de ações brasileiro e a economia nacional pós-Plano Real, além de haver número reduzido de empresas listadas principalmente nos níveis 1 e 2. Análises futuras poderão estar mais bem alicerçadas a partir da expansão do mercado, a qual ainda é tímida, embora sejam inquestionáveis seus resultados econômico-financeiros na melhoria do bem-estar social. / This scientific investigation centers on a comparative analysis of the Traditional, Level 1, Level 2 and Novo Mercado listing segments of the Brazilian stock exchange. The study is based on the relationships among the return, risk and risk premium of each segment. For this, theoretical portfolios were created, with each composed of the stocks of companies listed on these segments in the spot market. The time interval of the sample data consists of the period from January 2005 to December 2010 and features the cyclical characteristics (which are typical in this business environment) of growth, the sharp declines caused by the 2008 crisis and the slow recovery in stock prices, with the comparison of these portfolios in the context of the different cycles of systemic risk enriching the conclusions. The conclusions partially corroborate the fundamentals of corporate governance by demonstrating that of all the portfolios formed by companies that adopt good governance practices, only the Novo Mercado in fact generates a reduction in uncertainties, with lower risks and higher absolute and excessive returns in relation to the portfolio formed by companies listed in the Traditional segment and to the industry average, as indicated by the Ibovespa. Although their component companies adopt more stringent corporate governance rules, the Level 1 and 2 segments have not obtained results that are consistent with the expectations they have generated by their adoption of processes marked by greater transparency and respect for shareholders. The evidence suggests that the reasons for this are the initial stage of development of Brazil’s stock market and the country’s economy following the implementation of the Real Plan, as well as the low number of listed companies in the Level 1 and 2 segments. Future analyses could enjoy more solid support due to the market’s growth, which remains timid. However, the financial results unquestionably contribute to improving the well-being of society.

Cette thèse a pour objet de revisiter, à la lumière de données financières historiques inédites, certains résultats de la littérature en histoire économique concernant la propagation de la Grande Dépression vers l’Europe, et plus particulièrement vers la France. Nous cherchons notamment à étudier les différents canaux de transmission à l’échelle internationale -boursiers, bancaires et monétaires- de cette crise et évaluons le rôle respectif qu’ils ont pu exercer dans la propagation de cette crise aux marchés financiers français. Les différentes contributions, que nous proposons dans cette thèse, sont avant tout empiriques et s’appuient sur un travail important effectué en amont de collecte et de traitement de données financières originales, provenant principalement des archives de la Bourse de Paris.Plusieurs résultats importants émergent de notre travail. Notre analyse sur les marchés boursiers montre, tout d’abord, que le krach boursier américain de 1929 a eu un faible impact sur la bourse de Paris, De même, le système bancaire français a, dans son ensemble, plutôt bien résisté à la crise bancaire du début des années 1930, en raison notamment de la forte spécialisation qui le caractérisait à cette époque. Enfin, nous montrons que le niveau d’intégration financière entre les États-Unis, la France et la Belgique, à travers l’étude des relations bilatérales entre les marchés actions de ces trois pays, a eu tendance à se renforcer avec l’adoption par ces pays du système de l’étalon "de change" or. Cette forte intégration financière, couplée aux contraintes en matière de politique économique liées à ce système monétaire, pourraient ainsi expliquer comment la Grande Dépression s’est propagée en Europe et pourquoi la crise économique s’est prolongée dans des pays comme la France ou la Belgique, comparativement à d’autres grandes économies. / The aim of this thesis is to shed new light on how the Great Depression spread to Europe, and more particularly to France by relying on new historical financial data compiled from original source documents. In particular, we analyze the different transmission channels - stock markets, banking sector and international monetary system - of this crisis, in order to assess the respective role they have played in the impact of this crisis on French financial markets. We contribute empirically to this larger literature by providing evidence based on original historical data hand-collected from the archives of the Paris Stock Exchange.Several important results emerge from our work. Our analysis based on the stock markets shows, first, that the American stock market crash of 1929 had a low impact on the Paris stock exchange. Similarly, the French banking system, as a whole, remained quite resilient to the banking crisis of the beginning of the 1930s, mainly due to its strong specialization of the sector at that time. Finally, we show that the level of financial integration between the United States, France and Belgium - proxied by bilateral relationships between their equity markets - has tended to increase with the adoption by these countries of the Gold Exchange Standard. This high financial integration, coupled with economic policies constrained by the exchange rate regime, could explain how the Great Depression spread to Europe and why the economic crisis lasted longer in countries such as France or Belgium, compared to other major economies

A presente investigação científica discorre acerca da análise comparativa dos segmentos Tradicional, Nível 1, Nível 2 e Novo Mercado da bolsa de valores brasileira. As bases do estudo estão calcadas nas relações entre retornos, risco e prêmios de risco em cada segmento. Para o alcance desse objetivo, foram organizadas carteiras teóricas, cada uma composta por ações de empresas listadas nos segmentos citados do mercado à vista. O intervalo de tempo delimitador dos dados amostrais compreende o período de janeiro de 2005 a dezembro de 2010 e possui características cíclicas - típicas desse ambiente de negócios - de crescimento, de queda brusca provocada pelos efeitos da crise de 2008 e de recuperação lenta na valorização dos preços das ações. Isso enriquece as conclusões ao se examinar comparativamente as referidas carteiras teóricas à luz de ciclos distintos do risco sistemático. As conclusões corroboram parcialmente os fundamentos da governança corporativa ao evidenciar que, de todos os portfolios compostos por empresas que adotam as boas práticas de governança, somente o Novo Mercado de fato gera redução das incertezas, acarretando a diminuição do risco e elevados retornos, absolutos e excessivos, relativamente ao portfolio composto por empresas listadas no Tradicional e à média do mercado, a qual é dada pelo Ibovespa. Os níveis 1 e 2, apesar das empresas que os compõem adotarem regras de governança corporativa, não obtêm resultados de acordo com as expectativas geradas justamente por desenvolverem processos de maior transparência e respeito aos acionistas. As evidências apontam que as razões do fato supramencionado residem no estágio inicial de desenvolvimento no qual se encontram o mercado de ações brasileiro e a economia nacional pós-Plano Real, além de haver número reduzido de empresas listadas principalmente nos níveis 1 e 2. Análises futuras poderão estar mais bem alicerçadas a partir da expansão do mercado, a qual ainda é tímida, embora sejam inquestionáveis seus resultados econômico-financeiros na melhoria do bem-estar social. / This scientific investigation centers on a comparative analysis of the Traditional, Level 1, Level 2 and Novo Mercado listing segments of the Brazilian stock exchange. The study is based on the relationships among the return, risk and risk premium of each segment. For this, theoretical portfolios were created, with each composed of the stocks of companies listed on these segments in the spot market. The time interval of the sample data consists of the period from January 2005 to December 2010 and features the cyclical characteristics (which are typical in this business environment) of growth, the sharp declines caused by the 2008 crisis and the slow recovery in stock prices, with the comparison of these portfolios in the context of the different cycles of systemic risk enriching the conclusions. The conclusions partially corroborate the fundamentals of corporate governance by demonstrating that of all the portfolios formed by companies that adopt good governance practices, only the Novo Mercado in fact generates a reduction in uncertainties, with lower risks and higher absolute and excessive returns in relation to the portfolio formed by companies listed in the Traditional segment and to the industry average, as indicated by the Ibovespa. Although their component companies adopt more stringent corporate governance rules, the Level 1 and 2 segments have not obtained results that are consistent with the expectations they have generated by their adoption of processes marked by greater transparency and respect for shareholders. The evidence suggests that the reasons for this are the initial stage of development of Brazil’s stock market and the country’s economy following the implementation of the Real Plan, as well as the low number of listed companies in the Level 1 and 2 segments. Future analyses could enjoy more solid support due to the market’s growth, which remains timid. However, the financial results unquestionably contribute to improving the well-being of society.

A tese a ser defendida é a de que a autorregulação institucionalmente estruturada e legitimada pela regulação é um eficiente arranjo para tratar as falhas e riscos inerentes ao mercado de bolsa. O trabalho se inicia com a descrição da atual estrutura da autorregulação do mercado de bolsa, destacando seu novo formato institucional decorrente do processo de desmutualização e abertura de capital das entidades administradoras do mercado de bolsa e concluindo pela necessidade de adoção de novas perspectivas sobre o tema que transcendam o aparente antagonismo entre concepções liberais e intervencionistas. A partir dessa premissa, o trabalho apresenta uma visão panorâmica da evolução histórica da autorregulação do mercado de bolsa e considerações sobre os conceitos de autorregulação em outras áreas do conhecimento, a fim de identificar suas variações e seus elementos mais marcantes que constituirão a base a partir da qual serão apresentadas as novas perspectivas de análise do tema. As perspectivas propostas enfocam a natureza jurídica da autorregulação do mercado de bolsa como atividade paraestatal destinada a concretizar o modelo teórico neoclássico de justa formação dos preços segundo a livre atuação das forças de oferta e demanda e, também, melhorar os padrões de conduta praticados no mercado. Para tanto, o trabalho propõe que as decisões tomadas no âmbito da autorregulação se pautem por critérios materiais baseados nas premissas teóricas da concorrência perfeita e na exigência de cumprimento dos deveres derivados da boa-fé objetiva (informação, lealdade e proteção). Por fim, é apresentada uma especulação teórica, preliminar e não definitiva, denominada teoria palco-platéia, que visa situar o desenvolvimento da estrutura de autorregulação do mercado de bolsa como parte de uma questão essencial de interação entre indivíduo e sociedade representada nas diversas situações comunicativas envolvidas nos processos decisórios individuais e coletivos que modelam os padrões de conduta e as instituições públicas e privadas. / The thesis to be defended is that the institutionally structured self-regulation and legitimized by the regulation, is an efficient array to treat flaws and risks inherent of the exchange market. The paper begins with a description of the current self-regulation structure of the exchange market, highlighting its new institutional format, due to the demutualization process and IPO of the entities that manage the exchange market, and concluding with the need of the adoption of new perspectives regarding the subject-matter that transcend the apparent antagonism between liberal and interventionist conception. From this premise, the paper presents an overview of the history of self-regulation of the exchange market and considerations on the concepts of self-regulation in other areas of knowledge, for the purpose of identifying its variations and its most striking elements that will form the basis from which the new perspectives of analysis of the matter will be presented. The proposed views focus on the legal nature of the exchange markets self-regulation as a parastatal activity that seeks to achieve the neoclassic theoretical model of fair pricing, according to the free action of forces of supply and demand, and also improve the conduct standards in the market. Therefore, the paper proposes that decisions made within the self-regulation should be guided by material criteria based on theoretical postulations of perfect competition and in the requirement of the obligations derived from the objective good faith (information, loyalty and protection). Lastly, a preliminary and not final, theoretical speculation is presented, denominated stage-audience theory, which aims to situate the development of the self-regulation structure of the exchange market, as part of an essential matter of interaction between individual and society represented in various communication situations involved in individual and collective decision-making, which shape the standards of conduct, and public and private institutions.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-17T14:53:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Rafael de Souza.pdf: 5581665 bytes, checksum: 4edbe8b1f2b84008b5129a93038f2fee (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-04 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / In this work, we applied the technology of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) in the capital market, i.e., the stock market, specifically in Bolsa de Mercadorias e Futuros de São Paulo (BM&FBovespa). The research focused mainly on negotiation protocols and learning of investors agents. Within the Stock Exchange competitive field, the development of an agent that could learn to negotiate, could become differential for investors who wish to increase their profits. The decision-making based on historical data is motivation for further research in the same direction, however, we sought a different approach with regard to the representation of the states of q-learning algorithm. The reinforcement learning, in particular q-learning, has been shown to be effective in environments with various historical data and seeking reward decisions with positive results. That way it is possible to apply in the purchase and sale of shares, an algorithm that rewards the profit and punishes the loss. Moreover, to achieve their goals agents need to negotiate according to specific protocols of stock exchange. Therefore, endeavor was also the specifications of the rules of negotiation between agents that allow the purchase and sale of shares. Through the exchange of messages between agents, it is possible to determine how the trading will occur and facilitate communication between them, because it sets a standard of how it will happen. Therefore, in view of the specification of negotiation protocols based on q-learning, this research has been the modeling of intelligent agents and models of learning and negotiation required for decision making entities involved. / Neste trabalho, aplicou-se a tecnologia de Sistemas MultiAgente (SMA) no mercado de capitais, isto é, na Bolsa de Valores, especificamente na Bolsa de Mercadorias e Futuros de São Paulo (BM&FBovespa). A pesquisa concentrou-se principalmente nos protocolos de negociação envolvidos e na aprendizagem dos agentes investidores. Dentro do cenário competitivo da Bolsa de Valores, o desenvolvimento de um agente que aprendesse a negociar poderia se tornar diferencial para os investidores que desejam obter lucros cada vez maiores. A tomada de decisão baseada em dados históricos é motivação para outras pesquisas no mesmo sentido, no entanto, buscou-se uma abordagem diferenciada no que diz respeito à representação dos estados do algoritmo de aprendizagem-q. A aprendizagem por reforço, em especial a aprendizagem-q, tem demonstrado ser eficiente em ambientes com vários dados históricos e que procuram recompensar decisões com resultados positivos. Dessa forma é possível aplicar na compra e venda de ações, um algoritmo que premia o lucro e pune o prejuízo. Além disso, para conseguir alcançar seus objetivos os agentes precisam negociar de acordo com os protocolos específicos da bolsa de valores. Sendo assim, procurou-se também as especificações das regras de negociação entre os agentes que permitirão a compra e venda de títulos da bolsa. Através da troca de mensagens entre os agentes, é possível determinar como a negociação ocorrerá e facilitará comunicação entre os mesmos, pois fica padronizada a forma como isso acontecerá. Logo, tendo em vista as especificações dos protocolos de negociação baseados em aprendizagem-q, tem-se nesta pesquisa a modelagem dos agentes inteligentes e os modelos de aprendizagem e negociação necessários para a tomada de decisão das entidades envolvidas.

Ziel dieser Arbeit ist, einen historischen Überblick über den Aufbau des Kapitalmarktes in BuH zu geben und einen kritischen und wissenschaftlichen Beitrag zu der noch relativ jungen Diskussion rund um den Transformationsprozess und dessen Auswirkungen und Ergebnissen zu leisten. Durch die Transformation des gesellschaftlichen Eigentums, die sogenannte Privatisierung, wurde der Kapitalmarkt ins Leben gerufen. Als Fazit wird auf die Auswirkungen des Transformationsprozess in Hinblick auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Situation näher eingegangen. Die Arbeit bezieht sich auf die Entwicklung, die Besonderheiten und die Probleme des Kapitalmarktes sowie die gesetzlichen Rahmenbedingungen in BuH. Vor dem Hintergrund dieses Transformationsprozesses versucht diese Arbeit den Aufbau und die weitere Entwicklung der Börse in Sarajewo zu untersuchen und zu analysieren. Letzendlich soll beurteilt werden, ob der Transformationsprozess erfolgreich war und wo ein eventueller Nachholbedarf besteht.