Submitted by André Fava Pestana (afpestana@gmail.com) on 2014-12-23T22:09:45Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 441121 bytes, checksum: d3fd4490be660a716f9368bbf366064e (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Prezado André, Não deve constar números de página nas páginas de 1 á 8. Peço a gentileza de excluir estes números e postar novamente. Lembrando que o Sumário está correto, seu trabalho se inicia na página 9. À disposição para qualquer esclarecimento. Att. Renata Souza Cursos de Pós-Graduação (55 11) 3799-7764 SRA - Secretaria de Registros Acadêmicos on 2014-12-29T11:26:26Z (GMT) / Submitted by André Fava Pestana (afpestana@gmail.com) on 2014-12-29T13:32:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 442163 bytes, checksum: c1d9e18d4959a2ad10458a4c85047465 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2014-12-29T13:37:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 442163 bytes, checksum: c1d9e18d4959a2ad10458a4c85047465 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-01-05T11:30:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 442163 bytes, checksum: c1d9e18d4959a2ad10458a4c85047465 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-19 / Banks, as diligent agents, actively monitor their debtors in order to obtain a precise assessment of their financial position. This monitoring stance usually allows them to access non-public information regarding a firm and its business, and acquire hold up power in the credit granting activity. This hold up power is believed to allow banks to charge the firm higher interest rates than otherwise would be justified by the company’s credit risk profile through the economic cycle, mainly during recessions. The presence of hold up power is tested on this paper in businesses more or less dependent on bank credit. By comparing the evolution of bank spreads paid by Brazilian public companies with and without access to the corporate bond market and through the economic cycle comprising the 2009 crisis, some insight is gained on the impact of an economic downturn and of holding corporate bonds in reducing the bank’s hold up power and hence the spreads paid by the company. Data from 50 firms for the years 2007 to 2013 were organized in a panel and modeled using the Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) technique, as an alternative to the classic Least Squares (LS) technique. The dummies, i) access to corporate bond credit, ii) economic recession and iii) interaction of the 2 previous variables were created and tested after controlling for firm specific factors such as credit restriction, firm size, leverage, etc and statistical evidence was found supporting the intuition that having access to the bond market can reduce the bank spreads during recessions. / A concessão de crédito bancário demanda esforço do agente credor que se dedica de forma ativa na obtenção de informações relativas à firma, até então não disponíveis ao público. Dado o hold up power do banco detentor de informações não públicas, este deveria poder cobrar spreads mais altos do que seria justificado unicamente pelo risco de crédito do tomador ao longo dos ciclos econômicos, sendo tal dinâmica mais acentuada em cenários de crise. Testa-se aqui esta hipótese e para isso são comparadas as variações do spread bancário médio da dívida de empresas brasileiras com diferentes composições de endividamento, levando-se em conta sua dependência do crédito bancário. Foram criadas: i) uma variável dummy identificando o acesso ao crédito direto para que se pudesse avaliar o seu efeito nos spreads; ii) outra dummy identificando cenários de recessão que permite avaliar o impacto do ciclo econômico nos spreads e iii) dummy interação que viabilizou o estudo do efeito combinado das duas variáveis anteriores. Fatores de risco individuais da firma, tais como tamanho, nível de alavancagem e sua natureza em termos de restrição a crédito foram controlados na análise. Os dados foram organizados em painel com os quais foi montada regressão linear valendo-se da técnica Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS), alternativa ao Least Squares (LS) clássico. Encontrou-se evidência estatística de que em cenários de recessão econômica o acesso ao mercado direto de crédito traz efeito benéfico sobre os spreads bancários pagos pelas firmas.

The master thesis considers the problem of the effect of market potential solution to reduce dependence on the metallurgical industry crisis in the economy. The thesis has the experience of domestic and foreign researchers in determining the characteristics of the market potential, identified factors affecting the state of the market potential for the crisis, the theory of crises and economic cycles. To identify ways to accelerate out of the crisis, analyzes the steel industry in the world and our country in the last ten years. Based on the theoretical analysis and analysis of the metallurgical industry of Russia, recommendations for the growth of the market potential in today’s crisis were proposed. / В работе рассмотрено решение проблемы влияния рыночного потенциала на снижение зависимости металлургической отрасли от кризисных явлений в экономике. В диссертации изучен опыт отечественных и зарубежных исследователей в определении особенностей рыночного потенциала, выявлены факторы, влияющие на состояние рыночного потенциала в условиях кризисных явлений, теория кризисов и экономических циклов. Для определения путей ускорения выхода из кризиса проанализировано состояние черной металлургии в мире и нашей стране за последние десять лет. На основе проведенного теоретического анализа и анализа металлургического комплекса России были предложены рекомендации для роста рыночного потенциала в условиях современного кризиса.

本文探討景氣因素、研發外溢效果及技術知識特質對IC設計業研發支出遞延效應之影響。本研究主要採用Lev and Sougiannis (1996)所發展之研發支出遞延效應實證模型，以國內IC設計業上市櫃公司為對象，透過分析產業特性，區分為多應用性IC設計群組及單應用性IC之資訊、通訊及消費性群組，並探討其研發支出遞延效應。研究發現如下： 一、在研發支出遞延效應中，IC設計業受景氣之影響僅限於當期之研發支出；就研發支出效益受影響程度上，IC設計業亦低於其他IC產業。此結果顯示，IC設計業由於具備產品多元化和應用多元等利基市場特性，且在國內是屬於成長型產業，故景氣影響程度不如其他下游產業來的大。 二、多應用性IC設計公司之研發支出所創造之未來效益，比單應用性IC設計公司高。多應用性IC設計公司因為受到研發外溢效果之影響，其當期及遞延一期之研發支出，會比單應用性IC設計公司創造更高之效益。此結果顯示，多應用性IC設計公司投入於不同領域產品之研發支出，存在類似產業內外溢效果，因此亦加強研發支出對未來效益貢獻之程度。 三、資訊類單應用性IC設計公司之研發支出，對未來所創造之效益金額及持續年限，均未優於通訊類及消費類單應用性IC公司。本研究發現，技術路徑相依度及技術變動程度兩種技術知識特質，並不能完全解釋單應用性不同群組之研發支出所創造未來效益的程度，而必須同時考量下游應用市場之目前狀況及未來潛力，才能對其研發支出遞延效應做出更正確之推論。 / This thesis analyzes three R&D performance issues of the IC design firms in Taiwan. First, it addresses the effect of the fluctuating economic cycle in the semiconductor sector on the R&D performance of design and non-design firms in the IC industry. Secondly, this study examines the R&D spillover effect on the R&D performance of the multifunctional and single-functional groups of IC design firms. Finally, this study discusses how technological knowledge (path independence and complexity) influences the R&D performance of the three subgroups (computer, communication, and consumer) of single-functional IC design firms. Three major findings of the study are as follows: 1.The fluctuating economic cycle in the semiconductor sector has less influence on the R&D performance of the IC design firms than that of the IC non-design firms. The fluctuation affects the R&D expenditure of IC design firms only in the current year, but that effect on the IC non-design firms exist in the current year and also the following year. The R&D performance of IC design firms is also less influenced. 2.The multifunctional IC design firms generate more benefit from R&D expenditure than single-functional ones, suggesting that the former group has a stronger R&D spillover effect. 3.Although the computer subgroup of IC design firms possesses high technological path dependence and low technological complexity, its R&D performance is not better than the other subgroups. This finding suggests that technological path dependence and complexity do not fully explain the difference in R&D performance among the three subgroups of single-functional IC design firms.

In accordance with its main goal, the main thesis shows which published data and indicators contemporary financial markets use to assess the state of major economies and forecast their short-term future development. Using Bloomberg as the primary source, the thesis provides a detailed analysis of the indicators and surveys sought by finance professionals when assessing the performance of the economy in the United States, the euro-zone (with emphasis on Germany) and, in the context of the impact on the global economy and markets, in China and Japan. A preliminary hypothesis about the similarity or closeness between the theoretical view and the practical approach of financial markets has been refuted. Instead, after close scrutiny and detailed analysis, we have established that financial markets put great emphasis on forward-looking indicators and monetary policy. This emphasis was confirmed by a survey of local investors. Using expert opinion and analysis, the thesis charts an overview of select economic indicators and their over- (payrolls, consumer sentiment) or undervaluation (regional Fed activity indexes, CFNAI).

In this work we will deal with financial analysis of construction company and design possible solutions for stabilization. In the theoretical part of this work we will first focus briefly on the basic issues of macroeconomics, microeconomics, economic situation, especially in construction and perceive financial analysis of company. Based on this knowledge we will analyze a specific company and will draw possible solutions enabling us to achieve a profit or at least overcome the crisis period. For financial analysis will be the part of this work used primarily horizontal and vertical analysis ratios and analysis of financial statements.