Viešojo sektoriaus ekonomikos magistro darbo tema yra ypatingai aktuali tiek valstybei, tiek šalies gyventojams. Kiekvienoje valstybėje yra labai svarbu garantuoti socialinę apsaugą kiekvienam jos piliečiui, todėl socialinio draudimo fondo biudžetas turi būti planuojamas itin atidžiai. Įvairiais ekonomikos vystymosi etapais atsiranda socialinio draudimo fondo biudžeto sudarymo problemų, kurios ypatingai aktualios esant ekonominiam nuosmukiui, nes susidaro didžiausia problema – Valstybinio socialinio draudimo deficitas. Socialinės išmokos ir užtikrintas jų gavimas, kai netenkama pajamų yra labai svarbus, tačiau esant dideliam biudžetui deficitui atsiranda pavojus, kad išmokų mokėjimas gali sutrikti arba išmokos mažėti. 2008 m. atsiradęs didžiulis biudžeto deficitas kelia nerimą net tik socialinio draudimo valdybai, kuri atsakinga yra už jo vykdymą, bet ir gyventojams, nes tai gali paliesti kiekvieną iš jų. Dėl šios priežastys svarbu tirti Valstybinio socialinio draudimo biudžetą ir pateikti rekomendacijas, kaip jį subalansuoti. Pagrindinė tyrime analizuojama problema – VSDF biudžeto deficitas, kuris susidaro ekonomikai vystantis cikliškai. Tyrimo objektas – Valstybinio socialinio draudimo fondo biudžetas. Tyrimo tikslas – atkleisti Valstybinio socialinio draudimo fondo priklausomybę nuo ekonominių ciklų ir pateikti siūlymus kaip sumažinti jų neigiamą poveikį socialinio draudimo biudžetui. Šiame moksliniame darbe iškeltam tikslui pasiekti yra nustatomi šie uždaviniai:... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / This master's thesis in Public Sector Economics is particularly relevant to both the state and the country's residents. Ensuring social protection is very important for each citizen so the Social Insurance Fund budget must be planned very carefully. During the economic development various problems of the social insurance fund budget appear which are particularly relevant during economic downturn. In this period the main problem is the state social security fund budget deficit. To ensure benefits when there is the loss of income is very important, but when the budget has deficit the social payments can be irregular, o social benefits may go down. The budget deficit in 2008 is a matter of concern not only for State social Insurance Fund border but also for every citizen, because reduction of benefits can affect everyone. For this reasons it is important to investigate the state social insurance fund budget and set recommendations on how to balance it. Deficit in State social Security Fund budget resulting from the cyclical economy is the main problem analyzed in the study. The object of investigation - the State Social Insurance Fund budget. The goal of this research – to discover State Social Insurance Fund's dependence on economic cycles and provide advice to minimize negative impact due to cyclical fluctuations on the social security budget. The objectives of the research: to describe the concept of social security its history, social policy Lithuania, to describe and... [to full text]

[pt] Eu calculo uma proxy da propensão à tomada de risco dos jogadores de cassino através dos dados de receita de cassinos. Usando regressões insample e out-of-sample, eu então analiso o quão bem essa proxy prevê o prêmio de risco do mercado de ações. / [en] I estimate a proxy for the risk taking behavior of Casino gamblers through a measure of total Casino gambling revenue. Using in-sample and out-of-sample regressions, I then analyze how suited this proxy is in predicting market risk premium.

Background: Previous studies on the subject, contrary to corresponding studies on mergers and acquisitions, have shown significant positive market reactions from all over the world on the announcements of divestitures. However, similar studies have not been done on the Swedish market. There are split opinions on the origin of the abnormal returns from the announcements of divestitures, but the economic cycle, choice of payment method and industry affiliation are recurring explaining variables in event studies. Aim: The aim of the study is to investigate the effect on shareholder wealth from the announcements of a divestiture on the Swedish market during the period from 1997-2017, as well as investigating how the abnormal returns are affected by the economic cycle, choice of payment method and industry affiliation. Completion: The study is conducted using the event study methodology and a deductive approach. Historical time series from divesting companies share prices are used to estimate expected returns which are then compared to actual returns to decide whether the announcement of a divestiture has an impact on shareholder wealth. Results: The study finds significant results that divesting companies’ shareholder wealth are positively affected by the announcement of a divestiture for both event windows (-3, +3) and (-1, +1). For each separate day within the event window the authors find statistically significant returns for day T-2 and T0. The authors find no statistically significant differences between the returns regarding the economic cycle. Regarding the choice of method of payment, it is concluded that payment through stock generates excess returns when compared to other financing alternatives. No differences could be found between different industry affiliations. / Bakgrund: Tidigare studier inom ämnet har, till skillnad från motsvarande forskning om företagsförvärv, påvisat signifikanta positiva reaktioner från marknader över hela världen vid tillkännagivandet av en avyttring. Däremot saknas studier om avyttringars effekt på den svenska marknaden. Det råder delade meningar om varför abnormal avkastning uppstår vid tillkännagivandet, där konjunkturläge, finansieringsalternativ och branschtillhörighet är vanligt förekommande förklarande variabler i eventstudier. Syfte: Studiens syfte är att undersöka hur tillkännagivandet av en avyttring påverkar säljande bolags aktiekurs på den svenska marknaden under tidsperioden 1997–2017, samt att undersöka hur rådande konjunkturläge, valt finansieringsalternativ och branschtillhörighet påverkar avkastningen Genomförande: Studien genomförs genom eventstudiemetodologin med en deduktiv ansats. Empirin utgår från historisk tidsseriedata från avyttrande bolags aktiekurser för att bestämma förväntad avkastning som sedan jämförs med faktiskt avkastning för att urskilja om tillkännagivandet påverkar kursutvecklingen. Resultat: Studien visar statistiskt signifikanta resultat för att avyttrande bolags aktiekurs påverkas positivt av tillkännagivandet av en avyttring både för eventfönstret (-3, +3) och (-1, +1). För de enskilda dagarna i eventfönstret finner författarna statistiskt signifikanta avkastningar för dag T-2 och T0. Författarna finner inga statistiskt säkerställda skillnader i avkastning beroende på rådande konjunkturläge. Gällande val av finansieringsalternativ visas att betalning genom aktier genererar signifikant högre avkastning än övriga alternativ. Inga samband kunde säkerställas beroende på företagens branschtillhörighet.

The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the contributions of the sections (NACE-CZ) to the creation of gross value added. The first part of this thesis described the theoretical concepts relating to national economic gross value added. Analytical processes were used for the calculations, which may be used only if we are dealing with an additive link between individual factors. The sections' contributions to the creation of national eco-nomic gross value added were evaluated in the practical part, on the basis of the proc-esses set forth in the methodology. In the given time horizon, contributions by institu-tional sectors and groups of sections classified according to the level of technology showed a certain dependency on the actual economic cycle. Although the strongest in-stitutional sector is non-financial enterprises, they were the ones most affected during the crisis period, together with government institutions. On the contrary, the financial institution sector showed a strong position during the crisis period. In terms of the grouping of the sections according to the level of technology, the greatest contribution to national economic gross value added is by groups B1 and B2. The influence of the economic cycle was noted in all the groups but, according to the results, group C did not react quite as sensitively as the other groups.

Submitted by José Eduardo Nalini (nalini@br.ibm.com) on 2015-03-05T20:44:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE 2013 Projeto_Jose E Nalini_04.03.2015_Final V5.pdf: 810030 bytes, checksum: 167c69c2eb5d9dc0b4a74870cdedaee9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-03-05T21:25:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE 2013 Projeto_Jose E Nalini_04.03.2015_Final V5.pdf: 810030 bytes, checksum: 167c69c2eb5d9dc0b4a74870cdedaee9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-06T12:24:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE 2013 Projeto_Jose E Nalini_04.03.2015_Final V5.pdf: 810030 bytes, checksum: 167c69c2eb5d9dc0b4a74870cdedaee9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-12 / The effectiveness of fiscal stimulus or an expansionary fiscal policy has been the subject of analysis and debate in recent decades, been studied using different methods, historical periods and groups of countries. The work aims to study the impact of fiscal policy in other relevant macroeconomic variables, such as: taxes, inflation, unemployment, savings and investment rate, the last 20 years, for developed and developing countries, and in particular the case Brazil in the last 60 years. Some important work, show that fiscal shocks depend primarily on some main characteristics of countries, such as level of development, exchange rate regime, opening of the economy and public debt, among others. In addition, the response to the stimulus will depend on the stage of the economic cycle that particular economy is, recession or expansion. The results based on structural autoregressive (SVAR), through the impulse response function shows that for both groups of countries, developed and developing, and also to Brazil, the output response to a fiscal stimulus is negative, ie, there is a fall in output due to the fiscal stimulus. / A eficácia do estímulo fiscal ou uma política fiscal expansionista, tem sido alvo de análise e debate durante as últimas décadas, sendo estudada através de diferentes metodologias, períodos históricos e grupos de países. O trabalho tem como objetivo estudar o impacto da política fiscal em outras variáveis macroeconômicas relevantes, dentre elas: carga tributária, inflação, desemprego, poupança e taxa de investimento, nos últimos 20 anos, para países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, e em especial o caso Brasileiro nos últimos 60 anos. Alguns trabalhos importantes, evidenciam que os choques fiscais dependem basicamente de algumas características principais dos países, como nível de desenvolvimento, regime cambial, abertura da economia e dívida pública, entre outras. Além disso, a resposta ao estímulo irá depender do estágio do ciclo econômico que determinada economia se encontra, recessão ou expansão. Os resultados encontrados com base no modelo autoregressivo estrutural (SVAR), através das função impulso resposta, demonstra que para ambos os grupos de países, desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, e também para o Brasil, à resposta do produto a um estímulo fiscal é negativo, ou seja, há uma queda do produto em função do estímulo fiscal.

This thesis deals with the analysis of state budget in 1993 to 2014. Firstly the state budget and public expenditures are theoretically defined. Secondly the analysis of state budget expenditures of the Czech Republic at the level of budget chapters, current and capital expenditures is elaborated in the practical part. The comparison of state budget expenditures follows based on the classification COFOG with selected EU members. In the last part of the thesis the political-economic cycle is defined and the analysis in a form of testing hypotheses of basis of literature related to the political-economic cycle is performed. The testing was carried out in Eviews using the autoregressive process. The analysis follows the partial theory of political-economic cycles in the Czech Republic, positive results of the comparison and the growing trend of state budget expenditures of the Czech Republic.

The aim of diploma thesis is the analysis of economic cycle in the car sector in the Czech Republic and the government's approach on this issue. I desribe the global economic and financial crisis in the years 2007 - 2010, which had impact on automotive industry, For comparison, I add approach by government abroad and development of automotive industry, mainly in Germany and the Slovak Republic. The first part consists of theoretical approaches of important economists of the economic cycle, the company in recession and the different approaches to structural policy. Individual approaches are different and unfortunately there is no uniform approach to effective solution of the crisis. The analytical part deals with the beginning of economic and financial crisis along with the impact on the production and sale of three automotive producers in the Czech Republic - Škoda auto a.s., TPCA, Hyundai Motor Czech s.r.o. This impact is compared with the consequences of the crisis at car manufacturers in Germany and the Slovak Republic. Finally comes the assessment of mainly interventionist approaches by governments in the Czech Republic and abroad. Through the efforts to alleviate the ongoing recession in the sector was being set up so-called scrap subsidy that had an impact on the industry in the Czech Republic, even though in our country was his introduction denied.

Submitted by Ricardo Cedraz Duque Moliterno (ricardo.moliterno@uefs.br) on 2016-09-27T00:02:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 AnaLigia_Disserta??o_completa.pdf: 3275012 bytes, checksum: 3fbf17a121f3ccc63ae9e4e137889710 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-27T00:02:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AnaLigia_Disserta??o_completa.pdf: 3275012 bytes, checksum: 3fbf17a121f3ccc63ae9e4e137889710 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-25 / This dissertation deals an analysis of the cyclical changes of the design of industrial products, its relations with long cycles of economy and technology and its implications for local material culture. This research was conducted based on the model used by Langrish, work published in England in 1982. In his work, examine published magazines advertisements, with an emphasis on motivational spirit of society. We questioned if the Brazil, as a semi-peripheral country, has optimism cycles in design as it appears in England. The main objective is the analysis of how behaves the motivation of products design in the country, between the cyclical fluctuations of economy and technology. To achieve our goals was carried out an analysis of selected periods announcements in accordance with the variation of the national political-economic framework of the VEJA Magazine, between 1968 to 2015 years. After evaluating the results, this research reveals the perception of cyclical changes the products design in function of changes techno-economics paradigms and a heavy reliance of the design produced in the leading countries economically. In chapter one, the introduction to the survey is presented. The chapter two provides a brief historical and theoretical overview of the design, the economic cycles and technological changes. In the third chapter, we discuss the design changes opportunities and the economic situation of the peripheral countries. Analyzes and contributions is in the fourth chapter. In the fifth chapter are cited some final considerations of the research. / sta disserta??o faz uma an?lise sobre as mudan?as c?clicas do Desenho de produtos industrializados, suas rela??es com os ciclos longos de economia e tecnologia e o que isto implica como cultura material local. A pesquisa foi realizada com base no modelo utilizado por Langrish, em 1982, em seu artigo publicado na Inglaterra, que consiste em analisar imagens dos an?ncios de revistas ou peri?dicos publicados, com ?nfase no esp?rito motivacional da sociedade. Questionamos se o Brasil, como um pa?s semiperif?rico, possui Ciclos de otimismo em Desenho tal qual apresentado na Inglaterra. O objetivo principal ? a an?lise de como se comporta a motiva??o do desenho de produtos, no Pa?s, entre as oscila??es c?clicas de economia e tecnologia. Para atingir nossos objetivos foi realizada uma an?lise dos an?ncios de per?odos selecionados em conformidade com a varia??o do quadro pol?ticoecon?mico nacional, da Revista VEJA, entre os anos de 1968 a 2015. Ap?s os resultados auferidos, a pesquisa revela a percep??o das mudan?as c?clicas do desenho de produtos em fun??o das mudan?as dos paradigmas tecnoecon?micos no Pa?s e uma forte depend?ncia de desenhos produzidos em pa?ses l?deres economicamente. No cap?tulo um, encontra-se a parte introdut?ria da pesquisa. O cap?tulo dois traz um breve panorama hist?rico e te?rico sobre o Desenho, os Ciclos Econ?micos e as mudan?as tecnol?gicas. No terceiro cap?tulo, abordamos as oportunidades de mudan?as do Desenho e da situa??o econ?mica dos pa?ses perif?ricos. As an?lises e contribui??es, fruto da pesquisa, encontra-se no quarto cap?tulo. No quinto cap?tulo as considera??es finais da pesquisa.

En la presente investigación se estudia los determinantes de la morosidad de los créditos de consumo poniendo énfasis en el efecto del ciclo económico condicionado al tipo de institución financiera durante el periodo comprendido entre los años 2011 al 2019. En tal sentido, los tipos de institución financiera propuestos son: i) Bancos grandes, ii) Bancos medianos, iii) Entidades especializadas y iv) Entidades bancarias. Los criterios con los que se segmentaron las instituciones se basó en el nivel total de activos, participación del crédito de consumo sobre el total de créditos emitidos por cada institución, así como fortaleza retail y tienda por departamento. La investigación encontró evidencia empírica de positividad entre el ciclo económico y el ratio de morosidad de los créditos de consumo. Además, esta relación es más fuerte en las empresas especializadas y no bancarias, siendo no significativo en las grandes y medianas. Estos resultados fueron estimados a través de paneles dinámicos bajo la metodología de Arellano y Bond, así como cinco metodologías para la obtención de la variable ciclo económico, desarrolladas a más detalle en la sección 4 del presente documento. / In this research, the determinants of consumer credit delinquency are studied, emphasizing the effect of the economic cycle conditioned to the type of financial institution during the period 2011 to 2019. In this sense, the types of financial institution proposed are: i) Large Banks, ii) Medium-sized banks, iii) Specialized entities and iv) Banking entities. The criteria with which the institutions were segmented were based on the total level of assets, the share of consumer credit over the total credits issued by each institution, as well as the strength of retail trade and department stores. The research found empirical evidence of positivity between the business cycle and the delinquency rate of consumer loans. In addition, this relationship is stronger in specialized and non-bank companies, not being significant in large and medium-sized companies. These results were estimated through dynamic panels under the Arellano and Bond methodology, as well as five methodologies for obtaining the economic cycle variable, developed in greater detail in section 4 of this document. / Trabajo de investigación

Questo lavoro contribuisce al dibattito sul “decoupling delle Economie emergenti (EE) rispetto alle Economie Avanzate (EA)” rispondendo principalmente alle seguenti domande: “La vulnerabilità delle EE a schock esterni (siano essi reali o del credito) provenienti dalle EA è cambiata nel tempo? E’ cresciuta o si è ridotta, come implica l’ipotesi del decoupling?” Al fine di misurare l’impatto che un eventuale schock esterno avrebbe esercitato sulle EE in diversi periodi degli ultimi decenni, sono stati eseguiti esperimenti di analisi controfattuale utilizzando un modello econometrico Time Varying Panel VAR con coefficienti fattorizzati. Le analisi mostrano che negli ultimi trenta anni le EE sono diventate meno vulnerabili a shock provenienti dalle EA, siano essi di natura reale o shock del credito. Sebbene questo risultato supporti l’idea del decoupling, è importante notare che la resilienza delle EE a shock esterni è evoluta nel tempo in maniera non progressiva ma piuttosto evidenziando fasi di più forte resilienza seguite da fasi di minore resilienza e vice versa; un “sentiero a onde” non ancora pienamente considerato nella letteratura economica. Le EE sono inoltre risultate più vulnerabili a shock del credito rispetto a shock reali; questa maggiore vulnerabilità relativa ha raggiunto il suo picco negli anni più recenti. / This work aims to contribute towards the debate on “decoupling of Emerging Economies (EEs) from the Advanced Economies (AEs)” by addressing the following main questions: “Has the EEs’ vulnerability to external shocks (both real and credit shocks) coming from AEs changed over time? If so, has it grown or decreased, as the decoupling hypothesis claims?” In order to measure the impact that external shocks would have on the EEs’ GDP growth in different periods of last decades, counterfactual experiments were performed using an econometric Time Varying Panel VAR model with factorized coefficients. The analyses show that over the last thirty years EEs have become less vulnerable to shocks spreading from the AEs. Despite this represents evidence in favour of the decoupling hypothesis, it is important to note that EEs’ resilience to external shocks has changed in a non-progressive manner over time, with phases of greater resilience followed by others of lower resilience, and vice versa; this outlines a “wave-like” path whose evidence has yet been fully analyzed in the economic literature. Moreover, the EEs have shown to be more vulnerable to credit shocks than to real ones; this greater relative vulnerability has reached its peak in the most recent years.