Mexico's Trade Policy During The Pe Kryštof Kozák, Ph.D. Despite the efforts of trading with other countries, there is still a dominant economic dependence on the United States due to the NAFTA agreement. The master thesis studies Mexico's trade policy and its effects on trade during the Peña Nieto administration with particular attention paid to how the government has tried to diversify trade. A descriptive analysis is used with research in exports, imports and foreign direct investment.

La presente investigación busca determinar los factores que influenciaron en la evolución de las exportaciones de las tablillas y frisos para parqué sin ensamblar del Perú a la República Popular de China durante los años 2009 - 2017. En el primer capítulo, se estudiarán conceptos relacionados al comercio exterior, desde las teorías de liberalización hasta acuerdos comerciales como el de Perú con China; aspectos relacionados a las tablillas y frisos para parqué, factores críticos de éxito, internos y externos. Entendemos que la firma del Tratado de Libre Comercio origina la desgravación, lo cual significa que los productos de ambos países tendrán una eliminación progresiva, parcial o total de los aranceles para ambos mercados. De acuerdo a lo mencionado anteriormente y relacionándolo con la teoría del liberalismo comercial, entendemos que luego de 9 años desde la entrada en vigencia del Tratado, encontramos en base al modelo de estudio cualitativo que existen otros factores que tienen más relevancia con respecto a la firma del TLC, los cuales se desarrollarán más adelante. Asimismo, en el segundo capítulo se expondrá el planteamiento de la investigación tanto como el problema, hipótesis y objetivos principales y específicos. En el tercer capítulo se expondrá el método de investigación cualitativo exploratorio porque se quiere conocer mediante datos empíricos, cuales eran para los entrevistados los factores determinantes en la evolución de las exportaciones de las tablillas y frisos para parqués sin ensamblar, todo ello con a través del recojo y el análisis sistemático de datos. Además, mediante esta investigación cualitativa se determinará la muestra, categorías, procedimiento, procesamiento de los resultados, la clasificación de las categorías y las limitaciones que se presentaron en la investigación. En el cuarto capítulo se presentan los hallazgos de la investigación en relación con las entrevistas realizadas a cada participante. Se analizó de manera empírica la información y se plasmó en tablas de acuerdo con el número de menciones por factor para determinar a los que tuvieron mayor influencia en la evolución de las exportaciones. Finalmente, en las conclusiones se presenta el factor que tuvo mayor impacto para luego determinar si se cumplieron los objetivos de la investigación y la hipótesis. / The present investigation seeks to determine the factors that influenced the evolution of the exports of the slats and friezes for parquet without assembling from Peru to Popular Republic of China during the years 2009 - 2017. In the first chapter, concepts related to foreign trade will be studied, from liberalization theories to trade agreements such as Peru with China; Aspects related to the slats and friezes for parquet, critical success factors, internal and external. We understand that the signing of the Free Trade Agreement results in the elimination of tariffs, which means that the products of both countries will have a progressive, partial or total elimination of tariffs for both markets. According to the aforementioned and related to the theory of commercial liberalism, we understand that after 9 years since the entry into force of the Treaty, we find based on the qualitative study model that there are other factors that have more relevance with respect to the signature of the FTA, which will be developed later. Also, in the second chapter the research approach will be exposed as well as the main and specific problem, hypothesis and objectives. In the third chapter the method of exploratory qualitative research will be exposed because we want to know through empirical data, which were for the interviewees the determining factors in the evolution of the exports of the slats and friezes for parquet without assembling, all with the I collect and systematic data analysis. In addition, this qualitative research will determine the sample, categories, procedure, processing of the results, the classification of the categories and the limitations that were presented in the investigation. In the fourth chapter, the findings of the research are presented in relation to the interviews conducted with each participant. The information was analyzed in an empirical way and was reflected in tables according to the number of mentions by factor to determine those that had the greatest influence on the evolution of exports. Finally, in the conclusions, the factor that had the greatest impact is presented to determine if the objectives of the research and the hypothesis were met. / Tesis

La presente investigación se realizó con el fin de encontrar los factores que influyen en la exportación de aceite de pescado (1540201000) a China, durante los años 2007 al 2017. Por tal motivo, se analizó todos los factores que se consideraron influyente al tema, siendo estas: las Medidas Sanitarias y Fitosanitarias, el Valor FOB y los Fenómenos Ambientales-El Niño. Debido a esto, se investigó sobre las Medidas Sanitarias y Fitosanitarias presentadas por China, para poder exportar y entrar a su país con este producto, ya que debido al Tratado de Libre Comercio, en el 2010, este tipo de medidas fueron más rigurosas, lo cual fue una barrera comercial para los exportadores porque eran nuevos requerimientos por obtener. Así también, se revisaron los valores FOB exportados a China del aceite de pescado, que vienen influenciados por la poca o la mucha producción de dicho producto, dependiendo de la temporada. Además, se analizó el impacto que causan ciertos fenómenos ambientales, tales como el Niño, que afecta directamente a la producción, a la biomasa de la anchoveta y su consecuencia con las exportaciones al mercado de China. Para la realización de esta proyecto, se utilizó el método de investigación cualitativo, tomando en cuenta información de expertos relacionado al tema de empresas exportadoras de aceite de pescado a China, y entidades como IMARPE, SANIPES y la Sociedad Nacional de Pesquería, con la finalidad de poder obtener una información más confiable para el desarrollo de la tesis, así mismo se utilizaron herramientas metodológicas como datos estadísticos de SUNAT y MINCETUR. / The present investigation was conducted in order to find the factors that influence the export of fish oil (1540201000) to China, during the years 2007 to 2017. For this reason, factors that were considered influential to the subject were analyzed, being these, the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, the FOB Value and the Environmental-El Niño Phenomena. Due to this, it is investigated which are the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures presented by China, to be able to export and enter their country with this product, since due to the Free Trade Agreement, in 2010, this type of measures were more rigorous, which was a commercial barrier for exporters because they were new requirements to obtain. Likewise, the FOB values exported to China from fish oil were reviewed, which are influenced by the low or high production of said product, depending on the season. In addition, we analyzed the impact caused by certain environmental phenomena, such as El Niño, which affects production, anchovy biomass and its consequence with exports to the Chinese market. To carry out this project, the qualitative research method was used, taking into account information from experts related to the topic of fish oil exporting companies to China, and entities such as IMARPE, SANIPES and the National Fisheries Society, with the purpose of of being able to obtain a more reliable information for the development of the thesis, likewise, methodological tools were used as statistical data of SUNAT and MINCETUR. / Tesis

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'effet de la répartition inégale des ressources naturelles entre les pays sur trois aspects principaux. Dans le premier chapitre, nous examinons empiriquement les effets asymétriques potentiels de l'adhésion à l'Organisation Mondiale du Commerce (OMC) entre les membres, en nous concentrant spécifiquement sur les pays en développement. Les résultats suggèrent que l'adhésion à l'OMC a contribué à l'augmentation des exportations de tous les pays, à l'exception des pays non-émergents riches en ressources. En revanche, les pays émergents riches en ressources sont les plus grands bénéficiaires de l'accession à l'OMC. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous explorons empiriquement l'impact de la dotation en ressources naturelles sur les gains de six Accords Commerciaux Régionaux (ACR) entre les membres à travers trois axes : la complémentarité entre les pays, la diversification des pays riches en ressources ainsi que la création et le détournement des échanges. Nous concluons que la complémentarité entre les pays riches et les pays pauvres en ressources a été atteinte dans les accords de l’ECOWAS, du SADC et du CIS. Les résultats indiquent également que, dans tous les ACR, les pays riches en ressources ont accru leurs exportations hors secteurs des ressources naturelles et diversifié ainsi leurs structures d'exportation, en particulier avec les partenaires régionaux. En outre, dans la plupart des ACR, les pays pauvres ont accru leurs exportations vers leurs partenaires riches en ressources, tandis que ces derniers souffrent du détournement des échanges en termes d'importations. Dans le dernier chapitre, nous étudions l'impact de la dotation en ressources naturelles sur le processus de convergence entre les pays du PAFTA. Premièrement, les résultats démontrent que la sigma-convergence n'était observable qu'entre 1970 et 1990 dans les pays du PAFTA. De plus, l’estimation révèle que les ressources naturelles sont l'un des principaux déterminants de la convergence conditionnelle au sein du PAFTA. Par conséquent, l'asymétrie entre les pays en termes de dotation en ressources naturelles n'a pas empêché la convergence dans le PAFTA. L'analyse de la convergence des clubs a identifié trois principaux clubs parmi les pays du PAFTA. En outre, les facteurs qui ont déterminé la formation des clubs sont les ressources naturelles, la qualité des institutions et l'investissement. Par ailleurs, une abondance de ressources naturelles n'est pas suffisante pour être le meilleur club, mais doit être accompagnée d'institutions de qualité. / In this thesis, we examine the effect of the unequal distribution of natural resources between countries on three main aspects. In chapter one, we empirically examine potential asymmetric effects of the accession of the World Trade Organization (WTO) across members, focusing specifically on the developing countries. The results suggest that membership in the WTO contributed to greater exports for all countries, except for non-emerging resource-rich countries. In contrast, emerging resource-rich countries are the greatest beneficiaries from the accession of the WTO. In chapter two, we empirically explore the impact of natural resource endowments on the gains of six Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) across members through three axes: complementarity between countries, diversification of resource-rich countries, and trade creation and diversion. We conclude that the complementarity between resource-rich and resource-poor countries has been achieved in the ECOWAS, SADC and CIS agreements. The results also indicate that in all RTAs, the resource-rich countries increased exports in non-natural resource sectors and thereby diversified their export structures, especially with regional partners. Moreover, in most RTAs, poor countries boosted their exports to resources-rich partners, while resource-rich countries suffer from trade diversion in terms of imports. In the last chapter, we study the impact of natural resource endowments on the process of convergence among PAFTA countries. First, the results demonstrate that sigma-convergence was only observable between 1970-1990 among PAFTA countries. The estimation reveals that natural resources are one of the main determinants of conditional convergence within PAFTA. Therefore, the asymmetry between countries in terms of natural resource endowment did not impede the convergence in PAFTA. Club convergence analysis identify three main clubs among PAFTA countries. In addition, the factors that determined clubs’ formation are natural resources, quality of institutions, and investment. Further, an abundance of natural resources is alone not enough to be the best club, but must be accompanied by high-quality institutions.

On October 1, 2018, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), concluding 13 months of negotiations that concerned economies totaling 27.88% of world GDP. The recentness, magnitude, and relevance of the USMCA invokes a comprehensive analysis of the multidimensional factors that led to this agreement. Explaining the USMCA of 2018 requires insight of the continent’s political and economic forces that bound Canada, the United States, and Mexico with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) of 1994. After doing so, this study then compiles a variety of works in a meta-analysis on NAFTA’s effects during the past 25 years. This paper finds that NAFTA achieved its intended goals, but failed to anticipate many negative repercussions for which it is criticized today. Then, this study investigates the demand for renegotiation of NAFTA which was triggered by Donald Trump calling it “the worst trade deal in history maybe ever” during his presidential campaign. However, when presenting the new USMCA to the press, he described it as a “wonderful new trade deal.” Therefore, study analyzes how different the USMCA is from NAFTA, and finds that the few changes are explained by a modernization of certain chapters to adapt the treaty to the digital era. These modifications heavily resonate the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional free trade agreement that included the U.S. until President Trump withdrew from it. What then results to be a rebranding of other agreements is predicted here to bring more political repercussions than economic change, as elections in Canada dawn later this year and in the U.S. in 2020. Ultimately, each party succeeded per its own renegotiation objectives; Mexico and Canada sought market penetration in the U.S., whereas the U.S. sought concessions and an end to NAFTA. Ratification of the USMCA is pending at the domestic level of each country, which this paper predicts will occur successfully, perhaps even before the end of 2019. Nonetheless, despite the modernization efforts involved in producing the USMCA, this paper questions whether the agreement equips these three member states to face the challenges of tomorrow.

有些學者認為，一國依地位、歷史、政治諸環境，所擬定的固定與長期性外交目標應視為外交原則(Principle of Foreign Policy)而非外交是不易變動的，外交政策則因時勢的推移、環境的轉變、利害的權衡，而可以隨機應變。睽諸墨西哥外交史，自始即強調了"民族自決"與"不干預原則"。為貫徹此原則，墨西哥外交政策便屢有調整。一方反對大國干預，爭取經濟獨立，帶領拉丁美洲國家整體化發展，由區域開發與利益的保護觀點與大國相抗；一方也必須採取務實方略，認清國家發展的重點仍離不開北方巨人的奧援，故而調整政策與美國親善。鑑於外交原則是墨西哥外交政策重要的政策意涵所在，本文特就墨西經驗與獨特地理位置，索引墨西哥外交政策發展的軌跡，提供一種全方位的觀察角度。尤其置重於七Ｏ年代以后，墨西哥努力成為區域主權領導者，其堅決同"第三世界國家"打成一片的外交政策，率先提出"各國經濟權利與義務憲章"成為發展中國家向工業化國家進行鬥爭的象徵。墨西哥限於本身國力，雖未能以強國姿態左右區域動向，但曾挾其富有石油力量促進區域之穩定。尤有進者八０年代的"康塔多拉集團"(Contadora Group)積極斡旋中美洲動亂的努力成就有目共睹。惟一九八二年石油危機與債務危機，卻帶來倒退厄運。墨西哥除了推倡拉美經濟整合，一方亦努力尋找更多發展機會，與西方國家與東亞國家的經濟互動異常活躍。與此同時，墨西哥也意識到要擺脫美國依賴，無法單純採取疏離美國之作法，而是要正視這份關係，變被動為主導，將與美國相近作為一種優勢，利用同美國的關係發展自己。經濟與外交的多元化，刻正帶領墨西哥走上已開發國家的路向。尤其在北美由貿易協定格局之下，根據美國紐澤西洲Polyconomics公司評估，墨西哥挾其資源與實力，將可成為"另一個台灣"。墨西哥積極外交政策施為、墨美關係之今昔與墨西哥經濟外交及國家發展的關連。筆者認為，惟有跨時空地自歷史、地理、政治、經濟角度觀察墨西哥外交政策，方有全盤性的系統敘述。

1990年代以來，區域貿易協定的數目呈現倍數成長，發展到今日，全世界已約有230個FTA。然而臺灣卻因政治因素被屏除在區域經濟整合之外，將為臺灣經濟帶來諸多挑戰，我國若欲走出困境、強化在國際間的競爭力，勢必要有所作為。因此馬英九總統在競選總統時就以「與世界連結，參與全球區域經濟整合」為經貿政策主軸，而充分利用中國大陸現有的資源與市場，與其簽署區域貿易協定更是最具關鍵性的一步。經過多次正式與非正式的溝通協調，2010年6月29日，兩岸正式在重慶簽署ECFA，並於同年9月12日正式實施。 但從ECFA議題拋出到簽署實施，各界的爭辯從未停止，究竟ECFA對臺灣是危機還是轉機？是幫助臺灣走向世界還是被鎖進中國？值得深入研究，因此本文藉由國內外相關文獻來探討簽署ECFA對我國政治、經濟社會以及國家安全層面的影響，以增加閱讀者對ECFA的了解，也能成為政府推動ECFA的參考。 / Since 1990s, the number of the region trade agreements has been doubling, and until now there has been a total of 230 FTAs around the world. However, due to political factors, Taiwan has been dismissed outside the regional economies conformity, which will bring many obstacles toward the economic development in Taiwan. If our country intends to walk away from the dilemma and raise our competiveness, some steps must be taken. Therefore, while running for the presidency, President Ma Yingjiu brought up, 〝Links with the world, participates in the whole world regional economies conformity〞 as his economics and trade policy. By fully making using at the mainland China’s existing resources and markets, it was a must for Taiwan to sign the region trade agreement with china. After several official and unofficial communication and coordinating, on June 29, 2010, the Cross-Strait ECFA was signed officially in Chongqing, and implemented in the same year on September 12. Nevertheless, since the ECFA was carried out and signed, the debates from all walks of life has never come to an end. Is ECFA a crisis or a turning point for Taiwan？ Does it the help Taiwan to move toward the world or to be locked within China？It is worthwhile to conduct a research to clear out the doubts. This article dims to take a deeper look at how ECFA is influenced on Taiwan n terms of politics, economy, and national security. So that not only can the readers have a better understanding of the ECFA but also the government refers to it while the implementation of policy.

美國柯林頓總統於1995、1996年所提出《擴大與交往的國家安全戰略》報告指出：「美國國家安全戰略基礎在於擴大市場、民主社群，同時嚇阻與圍堵對我們國家、盟邦與我們利益的廣泛威脅。」。為了這一廣泛目的，美國須維持一個強大的防衛力量與運用有效的外交政策，以提升合作性的安全措施；致力打開外國市場與激勵全球成長；助長海外的民主並促進區域的合作安全等。 　　小布希總統2002年《美國國家安全戰略》報告也將「透過自由市場和自由貿易開啟全球經濟發展的新時期」列為國家安全戰略的一環。2006年的「美國國家安全戰略」重申自由且公平的貿易政策是第一支柱的一部份，透過自由市場和自由貿易來啟動一個全球經濟成長的新時代是其整體戰略之一；另一方面為了終結暴政和促進有效率的民主，工具之一就是締結自由貿易協定，鼓勵各國加強法治、打擊腐敗、落實民主責任。 　　美國的東亞政策可說重回「新現實主義」與「新自由主義」的雙軌路線。東亞經貿的發展與區域經濟的整合，更是讓美國看到延長霸權經濟命脈的新金礦。未來區域內的主導地位，將會取決於中國與美國相互競爭，這個競爭也許會是良性的，各取所需、各有所獲，但是過程中將會顯示這兩個大國經濟發展將在區域內的產生權力消長。 　　美國認為，中國在地緣戰略上是具有實力引起國際權力分配產生重大轉變，因此美國政策必須調和改變去掌控中國，以便維持及促進美國重大利益。但是隨著國際局勢變化，美國對中國的態度趨於務實，摒除與中國聯盟對抗蘇聯的思維，轉為全面性交往，但是強化其與日本等國的軍事同盟關係。 　　推展民主制度雖然不一定是美國的優先要務，但只要機會，美國總是鼓勵各國走向民主，因為美國人普遍認為，民主政體有能力抵擋極權擴張、便於美國行使權利、減少軍事衝突的風險。此論點乃基於民主國家比非民主國家更不願意發動戰爭之想法。在某些菁英人士心目中，保障及推展民主乃是美國重要的道德目標。 　　美國為確保國家利益及國家安全戰略總體指導，後冷戰時期美國在東亞區域經濟、軍事、政治安全等領域維護將更為重視，並力求主導區域安全相關議題制定、運作機制和秩序規範。 / US president Clinton points out a topic “Enlargement and Engagement” in the National Security Strategy Report, it says “United States National Security Strategy is based on enlargement the market and diplomatic social groups, simultaneously deter and stop any threat that will disadvantage out nation and allied nations.” For this general purpose, United States has to sustain a strong defense power and utilize diplomatic to improve the cooperation of security measures, endeavor in open foreign market, incentive global economic growth, diplomatic nations growth, and area security cooperation, etc. 　　President George Bush also point out “use free market and free trading to open the new growth of global economic era” from the National Security Strategy Report in 2002. It restated free and fair trading policy plays a big portion in 2006. Through free market and free trading to initiate a new era of global economic growth is part of the plan. The tool of terminating tyranny and effective the diplomatic is making a trade policy to encourage other nations stop crime and corruption. Play the role of democracy country. 　　United States Eastern Asia policy is back to theory of “neo-realism” and “neo-liberalism” two axis. The development of Eastern Asia Trade and Integration of Area Economic are the new vault for United States to prolong his sovereign rule in economic. The future leading nation of the area depends on China and United States competition. It maybe positive, each gains his own benefits, but the process will show the grow or diminish of these two nations economic growth within the area. 　　United States think that China’s regional strategy is very powerful which makes the change of international power distribution, so that U.S. has to adjust the policy to facilitate the U.S. key interests. But, along the change of international situation, the U.S. attitude with China turns out to be more practical. It changes the idea of allied with China against Soviet to fully engage with China in all perspectives. In addition, it strengths the military allied relationship with Japan and eastern Asia countries. 　　To popularize the democracy is not the first priority of United States. If there is a chance, U.S. will always encourage all countries toward democracy. American think that democratic system can stop the extremity system expand, which ease U.S. use his privilege and reduce military conflict risk. This is based on democratic nation is more unwilling to start a war than any other nations. In certain elites’ mind, that the goal of U.S. ethics is to ensure and improve democratic. 　　After cold war era based on U.S. interest, United States is more emphasize on the Eastern Asia’s economic, military, and political security, and endeavor on leading the area security.

This thesis examines US protectionism in the 1980s from Canadian and American perspectives, and its role in Canada’s pursuit of the historic 1988 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement. It analyzes the perceived “threat” of protectionism and evaluates the agreement’s provisions against Canada’s goal of securing access to the US market. It contends that US protectionism was crucial in the Mulroney government’s decision to negotiate a bilateral agreement and was a contentious issue for the agreement’s critics. US sources, unexamined in existing historiography, confirm the increased threat of American protectionism, but emphasize a distinction between the threat and implementation of protectionist trade law. Although the agreement did not shield Canada from US trade remedies, Canada gained important presence in the trade dispute process. These conclusions are drawn from Canadian and American media and government documents, 1980s academic and think-tank commentary, legal documents, the memoirs and diaries of major players, and select archival sources.

This thesis examines US protectionism in the 1980s from Canadian and American perspectives, and its role in Canada’s pursuit of the historic 1988 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement. It analyzes the perceived “threat” of protectionism and evaluates the agreement’s provisions against Canada’s goal of securing access to the US market. It contends that US protectionism was crucial in the Mulroney government’s decision to negotiate a bilateral agreement and was a contentious issue for the agreement’s critics. US sources, unexamined in existing historiography, confirm the increased threat of American protectionism, but emphasize a distinction between the threat and implementation of protectionist trade law. Although the agreement did not shield Canada from US trade remedies, Canada gained important presence in the trade dispute process. These conclusions are drawn from Canadian and American media and government documents, 1980s academic and think-tank commentary, legal documents, the memoirs and diaries of major players, and select archival sources.