<p>Увод: Ризик оперативног лечења у кардиохирургији посматра се са становишта постоперативног морталитет или одређених компликација. Стратификација ризика подразумева преоперативно утврђивање оперативног ризика, у односу на одређен период након операције, на основу тежине стања сваког пацијента посебно. Оно се процењује на основу броја и тежине његових фактора ризика. Предмет истраживања јесте математички статистички модел за предвиђање исхода оперативног ризика у кардиохирургији за период од једне године од датума интервенције. Популација Војводине је, у демографском смислу, специфична. Висока је стопа гојазних, пушача, оболелих од шећерне болести и артеријске хипертензије. Ове специфичности популације, морају се узети у обзир приликом процене ризика од кардиохируршке интервенције. Осим тога, оперативна тактика и техника (примена артеријских графтова, реваскуларизација у ургентним стањима, хибридна хирургија итд.), као и оптимална преоперативна припрема и постоперативни третман имају велики утицај на исход оперативног лечења. Циљ истраживања јесте идентификација свих фактора ризика који значајно утичу на исход оперативног лечења и развој сопствених модела за предикцију морталитета и значајних кардијалних и церебрoваскуларних компликација, као и њихова валидација. Методе: Узорак је чинило 2664 консекутивних болесника оперисаних на Клиници за кардиоваскуларну хирургију, Института за кардиоваскуларне болести Војводине у периоду од 01.07. 2011. до 21.12.2013. године. Анализирано је укупно 48 потенцијално релевантних фактора ризика. Подаци о морталитету и компликацијама у периоду хоспитализације и о рехоспитализацијама преузимани су из болничког информационог система (БИС). Болесници који, 365 дана од операције, нису били регистровани у БИС-у, позивани су телефоном како би се добио увид у њихово стање. Модел за процену једногодишњег оперативног ризика креиран је помоћу мултиваријантне бинарне логистичке регресије. Дискриминативна моћ модела испитана је помоћу Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) кривих, при чему су одређени гранични пресек, сензитивност и специфичност одговарајуће варијабле. Резултати: Добијени модел је добар маркер за предикцију морталитета годину дана од операције (area = 0,712: р &lt; 0,0005). Вредност граничног пресека је 3,04, сензитивност је 0,700; специфичност је 0,626. Хосмер - Лемешов тест за креирани модел износи 0,125 (р &gt; 0,05). На узорку на коме је направљен модел, у односу на значајне, неповољне кардијалне и цереброваскуларне догађаје вредност површине испод ROC криве су: area = 0,713; p &lt; 0,0005 , вредност граничног пресека 7,87, сензитивност 0,667, специфичност 0,635. Када се модел примени на контролну групу, вредност површине испод ROC криве су следеће: area = 0,518, p = 0,581. Хосмер - Лемешов тест за креирани модел показује да је вредност р = 0,007. Закључак: Модел за предикцију морталитета је прецизан како у односу на целу групу болесника, тако и у односу на тип кардиохируршке инервенције. Креирани модел има добру моћ дискриминације. Најбољу моћ разликовања болесника са ниским и високим ризиком, модел показује у коронарној а нешто слабију у комбинованој хирургији. Модел за значајне кардијалне и цереброваскуларне догађаје функционише само на целокупном узорку, на којем је креиран, а не може да да задовољавајући одговор сваком болеснику понаособ, колика је вероватноћа да ће се код њега, у периоду од годину дана од операције, десити неки од наведених догађаја.</p> / <p>Uvod: Rizik operativnog lečenja u kardiohirurgiji posmatra se sa stanovišta postoperativnog mortalitet ili određenih komplikacija. Stratifikacija rizika podrazumeva preoperativno utvrđivanje operativnog rizika, u odnosu na određen period nakon operacije, na osnovu težine stanja svakog pacijenta posebno. Ono se procenjuje na osnovu broja i težine njegovih faktora rizika. Predmet istraživanja jeste matematički statistički model za predviđanje ishoda operativnog rizika u kardiohirurgiji za period od jedne godine od datuma intervencije. Populacija Vojvodine je, u demografskom smislu, specifična. Visoka je stopa gojaznih, pušača, obolelih od šećerne bolesti i arterijske hipertenzije. Ove specifičnosti populacije, moraju se uzeti u obzir prilikom procene rizika od kardiohirurške intervencije. Osim toga, operativna taktika i tehnika (primena arterijskih graftova, revaskularizacija u urgentnim stanjima, hibridna hirurgija itd.), kao i optimalna preoperativna priprema i postoperativni tretman imaju veliki uticaj na ishod operativnog lečenja. Cilj istraživanja jeste identifikacija svih faktora rizika koji značajno utiču na ishod operativnog lečenja i razvoj sopstvenih modela za predikciju mortaliteta i značajnih kardijalnih i cerebrovaskularnih komplikacija, kao i njihova validacija. Metode: Uzorak je činilo 2664 konsekutivnih bolesnika operisanih na Klinici za kardiovaskularnu hirurgiju, Instituta za kardiovaskularne bolesti Vojvodine u periodu od 01.07. 2011. do 21.12.2013. godine. Analizirano je ukupno 48 potencijalno relevantnih faktora rizika. Podaci o mortalitetu i komplikacijama u periodu hospitalizacije i o rehospitalizacijama preuzimani su iz bolničkog informacionog sistema (BIS). Bolesnici koji, 365 dana od operacije, nisu bili registrovani u BIS-u, pozivani su telefonom kako bi se dobio uvid u njihovo stanje. Model za procenu jednogodišnjeg operativnog rizika kreiran je pomoću multivarijantne binarne logističke regresije. Diskriminativna moć modela ispitana je pomoću Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) krivih, pri čemu su određeni granični presek, senzitivnost i specifičnost odgovarajuće varijable. Rezultati: Dobijeni model je dobar marker za predikciju mortaliteta godinu dana od operacije (area = 0,712: r &lt; 0,0005). Vrednost graničnog preseka je 3,04, senzitivnost je 0,700; specifičnost je 0,626. Hosmer - Lemešov test za kreirani model iznosi 0,125 (r &gt; 0,05). Na uzorku na kome je napravljen model, u odnosu na značajne, nepovoljne kardijalne i cerebrovaskularne događaje vrednost površine ispod ROC krive su: area = 0,713; p &lt; 0,0005 , vrednost graničnog preseka 7,87, senzitivnost 0,667, specifičnost 0,635. Kada se model primeni na kontrolnu grupu, vrednost površine ispod ROC krive su sledeće: area = 0,518, p = 0,581. Hosmer - Lemešov test za kreirani model pokazuje da je vrednost r = 0,007. Zaključak: Model za predikciju mortaliteta je precizan kako u odnosu na celu grupu bolesnika, tako i u odnosu na tip kardiohirurške inervencije. Kreirani model ima dobru moć diskriminacije. Najbolju moć razlikovanja bolesnika sa niskim i visokim rizikom, model pokazuje u koronarnoj a nešto slabiju u kombinovanoj hirurgiji. Model za značajne kardijalne i cerebrovaskularne događaje funkcioniše samo na celokupnom uzorku, na kojem je kreiran, a ne može da da zadovoljavajući odgovor svakom bolesniku ponaosob, kolika je verovatnoća da će se kod njega, u periodu od godinu dana od operacije, desiti neki od navedenih događaja.</p> / <p>Introduction: Risk assessment in cardiac surgery can be realized from the point of postoperative mortality or certain complications. Risk stratification involves preoperative determination of operative risk in relation to a certain period after the operation, based on the health status of each patient individually. It is estimated through the number and severity of its risk factors. The subject of research is mathematical statistical model which is able to predict the outcome of operative risk in cardiac surgery for a period of one year from the date of intervention. The population of Vojvodina is, in demographic terms, specific. There is a high rate of overweight people, smokers, patients with diabetes and hypertension. These specifics of the population must be taken into account when assessing the risk of cardiac intervention. In addition, operative tactics and techniques (use of arterial grafts, revascularization in emergency situations, hybrid surgery etc.) as well as the optimal preoperative preparation and postoperative treatment have a major impact on the outcome of operative treatment. The aim of the research is the identification of risk factors that significantly affect the outcome of operative treatment and development of specific models for the prediction of mortality and major cardiac and cerebrovascular complications, as well as their validation. Methods: The sample was comprised of 2664 consecutive patients who underwent surgery at the Clinic for Cardiovascular Surgery at the Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases Vojvodina in the period 01.07. 2011 - 21.12.2013. A total of 48 potentially relevant risk factors were analyzed. Data on mortality and complications during hospitalization, and the rehospitalization rates were obtained from the Hospital Information System (BIS). Patients not registered within the BIS during 365 days from the operation day, were contacted by phone in order to gain insight about their status. A model for one-year operative risk assessment was created using multivariate binary logistic regression. The discriminative power of the model was tested using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, with determination of the following parameters: cut-off value, sensitivity and specificity of the response variables. Results: The model is a good marker for the prediction of mortality one year after the operation (area = 0.712: p &lt;0.0005). The cut-off value is 3.04, the sensitivity was 0.700; specificity was 0.626. Hosmer - Lemeshov test for the created model is 0.125 (p&gt; 0.05). In a sample in which the model was developed, with regard to significant adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events, the value of the area under the ROC curves were: area = 0.713; p &lt;0.0005, cut-off value 7.87, sensitivity of 0.667, specificity of 0.635. When the model is applied to the control group, the value of the area under the ROC curve is 0.518, p = 0.581. Hosmer-Lemeshov test for the created model shows the value of p=0.007. Conclusion: The model for mortality prediction is precise both when applied to the entire group of patients, and in relation to the type of cardiac procedure. The created model possesses good discriminatory power. The model shows best power of distinguishing patients with low and high risk in a subset of coronary surgery patients, and somewhat weaker power in combined surgery subset. The model for major cardiac and cerebrovascular events only works on the entire sample, in which it has been created, but cannot provide satisfactory answer to each patient individually, how likely the patient is to experience the event within a period of one year starting from the operation.</p>

<p>Uvod: Infertilitet pogađa 10-15% parova reproduktivnog doba. Vanetesna oplodnja (VTO) je najefikasniji vid tret-mana infertiliteta, ali uprkos značajnom napretku stopa uspeha VTO u proseku iznosi oko 30% po ciklusu. Glavnim razlogom neuspeha smatra se neadekvatan kvalitet embriona, dok se pretpostavlja da u 10-20% slučajeva razlog neuspeha leži u neadekvatnoj receptivnosti uterusa. Na osnovu inicijalnih istraživanja histeroskopija, koja predstvalja zlatni standard u dijagnostici i tretmanu patologije kavuma uterusa, se često izvodi u svakodnevnoj kliničkoj praksi kako bi se povećala uspe&scaron;nost VTO. Uprkos &scaron;irokoj primeni i dalje ne postoji dovoljno kvalitetnih dokaza o realnoj ulozi histeroskopije na ishod VTO kako kod patolo&scaron;kih stanja kavuma tako i rutinski, pre prvog ili rekurentnog poku&scaron;aja VTO. Cilj disertacije bio je da se utvrdi uticaj sprovođenja histeroskopije na ishod VTO, ustanovi učestalost prethodno neprepoznate patologije kavuma uterusa, kao i da se ispitaju stavovi pacijenata o primeni rutinske histeroskopije pred VTO. Materijal i metode: Istraživanje je sprovedeno u Kliničkom centru Vojvodine, u formi prospektivne studije u dve sukcesivne etape od 01.01.2015. do 01.04.2017. U prvoj etapi poređen je ishod VTO kod pacijentkinja kojima pred postupak VTO nije sprovedena histeroskopija (Grupa A), pacijentkinja kod kojih je dobijen uredan nalaz histeroskopije pred postupak VTO (Grupa B) i pacijentkinja gde je pred postupak VTO dobijen patolo&scaron;ki nalaz kavuma na histeroskopiji koji je u istom aktu tertian (Grupa C). Druga etapa istraživanja predstavljala je randomiziranu kontrolisanu studiju (RCT &ndash; randomised controlled trial). Nakon verifikacije urednog ultrazvučnog nalaza pred prvi postupak VTO, pacijentkinje su randomizirane u Grupu A2 kojima pred postupak VTO nije sprovedena histeroskopija i Grupu B2 kojima je pred postupak VTO sprovedena rutinska histeroskopija. Statistička analiza sprovedena je upotrebom odgovarajućeg softvera (JMP Ver. 9). Poređeni su podaci o osnovnim karakteristikama pacijenata, toka i ishoda ciklusa VTO. Primarni parametar ishoda bila je stopa kliničke trudnoće po embriotransferu. Pored analize ishoda primarno konstruisanih grupa, urađena je analiza i naknadno konstruisanih subgrupa, kao i predikcioni model uspeha VTO baziran na logističkoj regresiji. Rezultati: Studija je uključila 253 pacijentkinje (52 pacijentkinja iz Grupe A, 50 iz Grupe B, 50 iz Grupe C, 51 iz Grupe A2 i 50 iz Grupe B2). Nije postojala statistički značajna razlika u karakteristikama pacijentkinja, parametrima ovarijalne rezerve, broju dobijenih jajnih ćelija ni drugim parametrima toka postupka VTO među posmatranim grupama. U prvoj etapi istraživanja dobijena je statistički značajno (p=0,013) veća stopa kliničkih trudnoća kod pacijentkinja kojima je pred postupak VTO sprovedena histeroskopija - 50 % za Grupu B i 42% za grupu C u odnosu na 30,77% kod pacijentkinja bez histeroskopije (Grupa A), bez statistički značajne razlike među histeroskopskim grupama. U drugoj etapi istraživanja stopa kliničkih trudnoća prilikom upotrebe rutinske histeroskopije pred prvu VTO (Grupa B2) iznosila je 46% naspram 31,37% kod pacijentkinja bez histeroskopije pred prvu VTO (Grupa A2), iako uočena razlika nije dostigla statističku značajnost (p =0,089), uz relativan rizik (RR) za ostvarivanje kliničke trudnoće nakon primene histeoskopije uiznosio od 1,47 (95% CI 0,88-2,43) (p=0,13). Analizon subgrupa kod 100 pacijentkinja sa rutinski sprovedenom histeroskopijom pred VTO i 103 pacijentkinje bez histeroskopije pred VTO, dobijena je statistički značajnao veća stopa kliničkih trudnoća (48% naspram 31,07%, istim redom), uz RR od 1,54 (95% CI 1,08-2,20) (p=0,013), kao i stopa tekućih trudnoća od RR 1,49 (CI 1,01-2,19) (p= 0,039). Analiza ukupnog uticaja izvođenja histeroskopije pred VTO dobila je statistički značanjno veću stopu kliničkih trudnoća po ET za grupu histeroskopije uz RR 1,48 (CI 1,06-2,07) (p=0,017). Histeroskopijom je nakon urednog ultrazvučnog nalaza ustanovljeno postojanje patolo&scaron;kog nalaza kod 34,65% pacijenata i to 22,7% major patologije i 11,88% minor patologije kavuma. Nije postojala statistički značajna razlika u uspehu VTO u odnosu na sam nalaz histeroskopije. 98,67% pacijenata podržalo je rutinsku upotrebu histeroskopije pred prvi postupak VTO, dok je 83% pacijenata podržavlo rutinsku upotrebu histeroskopije pred svaki postupak VTO. U finalnom predikcionom modelu se uz AUC od 0,748 jedino postojanje visokokvalitetnog embriona uz odnos &scaron;ansi (OR) 7,91 (95% CI 1,80-56,06; p=0,0047), transfer blastociste uz OR 3,80 (95% CI 1,90-7,98; p=0,0001) i izvođenje histeroskopije pred VTO uz OR 2,13 (95% CI 1,14-4,08, p=0,0169) pokazalo statistički značajnim prediktorima trudnoće. Diskusija: Studija je dobila pozitivan uticaj histeroskopije na ishod postupka VTO, iskazan pre svega povećanjem stope kliničkih trudnoća nakon sprovođenja histeroskopije (bilo da je na histeroskopiji nađen uredan ili patolo&scaron;ki nalaz). Dodatna prednost histeroskopije predstavljala je i i detekcija prethodno nepropoznate patologije kavuma. Umeren efekat na ukupno pobolj&scaron;anje stope kliničkih trudnoća prilikom rutinskog sprovođenja histeroskopije pred prvu VTO, koji je statističku značajnost dostigao tek analizom subgrupa u skladu je sa nalazima novijih dobro dizajniranih studija koji donekle limitiraju nekritičku upotrebu histeroskopije. Biolo&scaron;ko obja&scaron;njenje potencijalnog pozitivnog uticaja histeroskopije najverovatnije leži u detekciji i tretmanu prethodno nepropoznate patologije kavuma, olak&scaron;avanju procedure embriotransfera, kao i humoralnim i molekularnim promenama koje nastaju u endometrijumu kao posledica odgovarajuće histeroskopske traume a koji su u dosa&scaron;anjim istraživanjima apostrofirani kao faktori koji mogu povećati receptivnost uterusa. Zaključak: Histeroskopija je efikasna, bezbedna i visoko prihvatljiva procedura koja dovodi do povećanja uspeha VTO u standardnim kliničkim indikacijama (prethodnog neuspelog postupka VTO i sumnje na patolo&scaron;ki nalaz kavuma uterusa) bilo da se na samoj histeroskopiji nađe uredan ili patolo&scaron;ki nalaz. Rutinska primena histeroskopije pred prvi postupak VTO se na osnovu rezultata studije ne može smatrati apsolutno opravdanom usled statistički nedovoljno značajnog povećanja stope kliničke trudnoće. Uzev&scaron;i u obzir visoku prihvatljivost od strane pacijenata i najverovatniji pozitivan efekat na stopu trudnoće primena rutinske histeroskopije pred prvu VTO bila bi opravdana ukoliko se implementira koncept ambulantne histeroskopije.</p> / <p>Introduction: Infertility affects 10-15% of all couples. In vitro fertilisation (IVF) is the most effective method of infertility treatment, but despite a significant improvement, success rate of IVF is still around 30% per cycle. The main reason for the IVF failure is inadequate embryo quality, but in 10-20% of cases the cause of IVF failure lies in impaired uterine receptivity. Based on earlier studies hysteroscopy, gold standard in the diagnosis and treatment of uterine cavity pathology, is often performed to increase IVF success. Despite its wide use, there is lack of high quality evidence regarding real contribution of hysteroscopy on IVF outcome in situations of uterine cavity pathology or routinely prior to first IVF or after recurrent implantation failure. The aim of this dissertation was to determine the influence of performing hysteroscopy on IVF outcome, as well as the incidence of previously unrecognized uterine pathology, and to examine patient&#39;s attitudes about performing routine hysteroscopy prior to IVF. Material and methods: The research was conducted in a prospective manner in two successive stages at Clinical Center of Vojvodina from 01.01.2015. until 01.04.2017. During first stage of the study IVF outcome was compared between patients who did not have a hysteroscopy prior to IVF (group A), patients with normal hysteroscopic finding prior to the IVF (Group B) and patients with abnormal hysteroscopic findings prior to IVF which was treated at the same time (Group C). The second stage of the study was a randomized controlled trial (RCT). After verification of normal ultrasound findings prior to the first IVF, patients were randomized to group A2 in who me hysteroscopy was not performed and group B2 who had routine hysteroscopy prior to first IVF. Statistical analysis was carried out using the appropriate statistical software (JMP Ver. 9). Patient characteristics, course and outcome of IVF cycle were compared between groups. The primary outcome was clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) per embryotransfer. In addition to analyzing the IVF outcomes in primarily defined groups, subgroup analysis was also performed, as well as IVF success pre-diction model based on logistic regression. Results: The study included 253 patients (52 patients in Group A, 50 in Group B, 50 in Group C, 51 in Group A2 and 50 in Group B2). There was no statistically significant difference in patient characteristics, ovarian reserve parameters, number of retrieved oocytes, or other relevant parameters of IVF course between the observed groups. In the first stage of the study there was statistically significant (p = 0.013) higher clinical pregnancy rate in patients who had a hysteroscopy before IVF - 50% for Group B and 42% for group C versus 30,77 % in patients without hysteroscopy before IVF (Group A), without statistically significant difference between hysteroscopic groups. In the second stage of the study, routine hysteroscopy prior to first IVF (Group B2) led to clinical pregnancy rate 46% versus 31.37% in patients without hysteroscopy prior to first IVF (Group A2), although without statistical significance (p = 0.089. Relative risk (RR) for achieving clinical pregnancy after performing hysteroscopy was 1.47 (95% CI 0.88-2.43) (p = 0.13). Subgroup analysis of 100 patients with routinely performed hysteroscopy before IVF and 103 patients without hysteroscopy prior to the IVF showed statistically significant higher rates of clinical pregnancies (48% versus 31.07%, in the same order), with RR of 1.54 (95% CI 1.08-2.20), (p = 0.013), and for ongoing pregnancies RR was 1.49 (95% CI 1.01-2.19) (p = 0.039). Overall effect of performing hysteroscopy prior to IVF resulted in a statistically significant increase in the clinical pregnancy with RR 1.48 (95% CI 1.06-2.07) (p = 0.017). After normal ultrasound finding hysteroscopy revealed 34.65% of pathological finding, 22.7% of major and 11.88% of minor pathology of the cavity). There was no statistically significant difference in IVF outcome based on hysteroscopy findings. 98.67% of patients supported the routine use of hysteroscopy before the first IVF procedure, while 83% of patients supported the routine use of the hysteroscopy before every IVF procedure. In the final prediction model, with the AUC of 0.748, only the presence of high quality embryos with odds ratio (OR) 7,91 (95% CI 1,80-56,06; p=0,0047), blastocyst transfer with OR 3,80 (95% CI 1,90-7,98; p=0,0001) and performing hysteroscopy prior to IVF with OR 2,13 (95% CI 1,14-4,08, p=0,0169) proved to be statistically significant predictors of pregnancy. Discussion: The study shoved a positive influence of hysteroscopy on the IVF outcome by increasing clinical pregnancy rate after performing hysteroscopy (whether hysteroscopy revealed normal or pathological finding). Additional benefit of hysteroscopy was detection of previously unrecognized uterine pathology. A moderate effect on the overall improvement in clinical pregnancy rate with use of routine hysteroscopy, which reached statistical significance only by subgroup analysis, is in line with findings of recent well designed studies that somewhat limit the noncritical use of hysteroscopy. A biological explanation of the potential positive effect of hysteroscopy is most likely due to detection and treatment of the previously unrecognized uterine pathology, facilitating embryotransfer procedure, as well as the humoral and molecular changes that occur in the endometrium as a consequence of the hysteroscopic trauma. Those changes were hypothesized as factors that can increase uterine receptivity by numerous research. Conclusion: Hysteroscopy is an effective, safe and highly acceptable procedure that increases IVF success when performed for accepted clinical indications (previous IVF failures, pathological findings of uterine cavity), whether hysteroscopy reveals normal or pathological finding. The routine use of hysteroscopy prior to first IVF based on this study can not be considered justified since increase in clinical pregnancy rate did not reach statistical significance. Given the high acceptance of this concept by the patients and moderate but probable positive effect on IVF outcome, implementation of routine hysteroscopy prior to first VTO would be justified only in office hysteroscopy setting.</p>

This was a retrospective study of a community-based methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) program in Toronto. Participants (N = 170) were federally sentenced adult male offenders admitted to this voluntary program between 1997 and 2009 while subject to community supervision following incarceration. The primary investigation examined correlates of treatment responsivity, with principal outcome measures including MMT clients’ rates of: (i) illicit drug use; and (ii) completion of conditional (parole) or statutory release (SR). For a subset (n = 74), recidivism rates were examined after a 9-year interval. Findings included strong convergent evidence from logistic regression and ROC analyses that an empirically and theoretically derived set of five variables was a stable and highly significant (p <.001) predictor of release outcome. Using five factors related to risk (work/school status, security level of releasing institution, total PCL-R score, history of institutional drug use, and days at risk), release outcome was predicted with an overall classification accuracy of 88%, with high specificity (86%) and sensitivity (89%). The logistic regression model generated an R2 of .55 and the accompanying AUC was .89, both substantial. Work/school status had an extremely large positive association with successful completion of community supervision, accounting for > half of the total variance explained by the five-factor model and increasing the estimated odds of successful release outcome by > 15-fold. Also, when in the MMT program, clients' risk taking behaviour was significantly moderated, with low overall base rates of illicit drug use, yet the rate of parole/SR revocation (71%) was high. The 9-year follow-up showed a high mortality rate (15%) overall. Revocation of release while in the MMT program was associated with a significantly higher rate and more violent recidivism at follow-up. Results are discussed within the context of: (a) Andrews' and Bonta's psychology of criminal conduct; (b) the incompatibility of a harm reduction treatment model with an abstinence-based parole decision-making model; (c) changing drug use profiles among MMT clients; (d) a strength-based approach to correctional intervention focusing on educational and vocational retraining initiatives; and (e) creation of a user friendly case-based screening algorithm for prediction of release outcome for new releases.

This was a retrospective study of a community-based methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) program in Toronto. Participants (N = 170) were federally sentenced adult male offenders admitted to this voluntary program between 1997 and 2009 while subject to community supervision following incarceration. The primary investigation examined correlates of treatment responsivity, with principal outcome measures including MMT clients’ rates of: (i) illicit drug use; and (ii) completion of conditional (parole) or statutory release (SR). For a subset (n = 74), recidivism rates were examined after a 9-year interval. Findings included strong convergent evidence from logistic regression and ROC analyses that an empirically and theoretically derived set of five variables was a stable and highly significant (p <.001) predictor of release outcome. Using five factors related to risk (work/school status, security level of releasing institution, total PCL-R score, history of institutional drug use, and days at risk), release outcome was predicted with an overall classification accuracy of 88%, with high specificity (86%) and sensitivity (89%). The logistic regression model generated an R2 of .55 and the accompanying AUC was .89, both substantial. Work/school status had an extremely large positive association with successful completion of community supervision, accounting for > half of the total variance explained by the five-factor model and increasing the estimated odds of successful release outcome by > 15-fold. Also, when in the MMT program, clients' risk taking behaviour was significantly moderated, with low overall base rates of illicit drug use, yet the rate of parole/SR revocation (71%) was high. The 9-year follow-up showed a high mortality rate (15%) overall. Revocation of release while in the MMT program was associated with a significantly higher rate and more violent recidivism at follow-up. Results are discussed within the context of: (a) Andrews' and Bonta's psychology of criminal conduct; (b) the incompatibility of a harm reduction treatment model with an abstinence-based parole decision-making model; (c) changing drug use profiles among MMT clients; (d) a strength-based approach to correctional intervention focusing on educational and vocational retraining initiatives; and (e) creation of a user friendly case-based screening algorithm for prediction of release outcome for new releases.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Umeå : Umeå universitet, 2010.

The objectives of this study were to provide a detailed biopsychosocial description of the characteristics of a sample of 100 individuals screened and referred by the National Responsible Gaming Programme helpline for their outpatient treatment programme over an eighteen month period, and, importantly, to measure the success of this specific treatment programme at set intervals, up to a one year follow-up period. While 80% of the sample did not relapse during the six-week treatment programme, the number of treatment seekers without any gambling relapses during each follow-up period declined, and those falling back into gambling increased as time went on. After one year 47% of treatment seekers managed not to revert back to gambling &#8211; total abstinence. A further 28% reported having relapsed once or twice or that their gambling was controlled. 25% of treatment seekers reported that they reverted back to gambling fulltime which leaves the success rate of the treatment at 75%. Treatment seekers reported an overall reduction in gambling participation, debt and expenditure and an overall improvement in social and vocational functioning. There is evidence in this study to support the perspective that pathological gambling is a multidimensional disorder and that certain sub-groups of gamblers have distinct gambling behaviour. / Psychology / M.Soc.Sc.

A dor na coluna vertebral é a principal causa de incapacidade no mundo, com altas taxas de prevalência global. A partir de estudos sobre a fisiologia da dor e suas relações com estados psicológicos, tornou-se essencial a avaliação psicológica dos indivíduos com quadros dolorosos, para selecionar os perfis mais favoráveis às diferentes formas de tratamento. O questionário DRAM (Distress Risk Assessment Method) foi desenvolvido como instrumento de triagem para portadores de dor na coluna vertebral subclassificando os indivíduos em quatro grupos distintos (normal, sob risco, somático e depressivo), conforme a pontuação dos dois questionários que compõem o DRAM (MSPQ e Zung). O objetivo desse estudo é traduzir e adaptar o DRAM para o português brasileiro da versão original em inglês, além de analisar a confiabilidade da versão traduzida e adaptada. Segundo a metodologia IQOLA, consagrada em inúmeras publicações, foi desenvolvida uma versão em português brasileiro que foi aplicada a uma amostra inicial de 30 pacientes e a seguir à amostra final de 85 indivíduos dos três centros participantes portadores de dor lombar. Os resultados comprovaram a confiabilidade e reprodutibilidade da versão traduzida e adaptada do questionário DRAM com índice de Cronbach alfa de 0,815 para o MSPQ e 0,794 para o Zung e coeficiente de correlação intraclasse de 0,688 para o MSPQ e 0,659 para o Zung. Tais dados permitiram concluir que a versão do questionário DRAM traduzida e adaptada culturalmente para o português brasileiro é confiável e está disponível para uso na prática clínica / Back pain is the leading disability cause worldwide, with high global prevalence rates. Based on studies regarding pain physiology and its relation to emotional distress conditions, psychological evaluation became essential to determine the most favorable patient profiles to distinct therapeutic approaches. DRAM (Distress Risk Assessment Method) has been developed as screening instrument for patients with lumbar pain, classifying them in subgroups as normal, at risk, distressed somatic and distressed depressive, based on the two components of DRAM scores (MSPQ and Zung questionnaires). The objective of this study is to translate and culturally adapt DRAM to Brazilian Portuguese language, and determine the final version reliability. As proposed by IQOLA method, a Brazilian Portuguese version of DRAM has been applied to an initial sample of 30 patients and finally to a 85 individuals from three participant centers. Results confirmed the reliability and reproducibility of DRAM in its Brazilian Portuguese final version: Cronbach alpha of 0.815 (MSPQ) and 0.794 (Zung) and ICC (intraclass correlation coefficient) of 0.688 (MSPQ) and 0.659 (Zung), thus concluding that the presented DRAM version in Brazilian Portuguese is reliable as available to clinical practice use

Realizamos estudo prospectivo randomizado para comparar cinco métodos específicos de avaliação funcional do ombro e uma avaliação genérica da saúde em pacientes operados de capsuloplastia e descompressão subacromial associado à reparação do manguito rotador. Foram estudados 30 pacientes de cada grupo, avaliados no período entre cinco a seis meses após o tratamento cirúrgico com os questionários dos Cirurgiões Americanos de Ombro e Cotovelo(ASES), Sistema de Pontuação do Ombro de Constant & Murley (CONSTANT), Folha de Classificação da Reparação de Bankart (ROWE), Teste Simples de Ombro (SST), Escala de Avaliação do Ombro da Universidade de Califórnia - Los Angeles (UCLA) e o Questionário Genérico de Avaliação de Qualidade de Vida (SF-36). A idade no grupo de \"Descompressão\" variou de 44 a 77 anos (média 59,2) e no grupo de \"Capsuloplastia\" foi de 17 a 65 anos (média de 31,4). Em relação ao sexo, o grupo da \"Descompressão\" foi predominantemente feminino e no grupo da \"Capsuloplastia\" foi predominante o sexo masculino. As médias da pontuação no grupo de \"Capsuloplastia\" são maiores que no \"Descompressão\" (93,6 e 71,7 respectivamente). A variabilidade dos escores observado no grupo \"Capsuloplastia\" (89,1 a 100) é inferior ao do grupo \"Descompressão\" (65,1 a 95,9). Não existe uma forte concordância entre os resultados obtidos pelos diferentes questionários (variação de zero a 0,51). A média nos oito domínios do SF-36 no grupo \"Descompressão\" foi de 70,8 variando de 60,4 (Vitalidade) a 89,2 (Aspectos Sociais). Para o grupo \"Capsuloplastia\" a média foi de 91,2 variando de 83,4 (Saúde Mental) a 96,6 (Aspectos Emocionais). Nos coeficientes de correlação linear de Pearson, não foi detectada associação linear entre a escala de CONSTANT e SF-36 no grupo \"Descompressão\" e entre ROWE e SF-36 no grupo \"Capsuloplastia\". Em ambos os grupos a maior correlação encontrada foi entre os questionários UCLA e ASES (0,900 na \"Descompressão\" e 0,893 na \"Capsuloplastia\"). Concluiu-se que nas cirurgias de descompressão subacromial o questionário UCLA foi o mais completo mostrando maior confiabilidade e reprodutibilidade e para as capsuloplastias o método ROWE apresentou maior confiabilidade, reprodutibilidade e praticidade. / A prospective randomized study was realized to compare methods of both disease specific and generic health status of shoulder\'s functional assessment in patients after operative treatment of subacromial decompression associated a repair of a tear of the rotator cuff and capsuloplasty. The thirty patients in each group were studied and at follow-up five to six months later, with the following questionnaires: American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons Shoulder Evaluation Form (ASES), Constant-Murley Shoulder Scoring System (CONSTANT), Rating Sheet for Bankart Repair (ROWE), Simple Shoulder Test (SST), University of California at Los Angeles Shoulder Rating Scale (UCLA) and the Short Form-36 (SF-36). The age in Decompression group was greater than Capsuloplasty group and the gender of first group was predominantly consisted of women and in the second group was men. The scores averages of Capsuloplasty group were higher than Decompression group (93,6 and 71,7 respectively). The variability of the scores observed in the Capsuloplasty group, 89,1 to 100,0 was less than in the Decompression group, 65,1 to 95,9. A strong interrater reliability between the questionnaires does not exist - variation 0 to 0,51. The average in the eight domains of SF-36 in Decompression group was 70,8 [range 60,4 (Vitality) to 89,2 (Social Aspect)]. In Capsuloplasty group the average was 91,2 [range 83,4 (Mental Health) to 96,6 (Emotional Aspect) ]. Pearson\'s coefficient analysis, shows that the correlation between CONSTANT and SF-36 was not detect, and in Capsuloplasty was not detect in ROWE and SF-36. In both groups Capsuloplasty (0,893) and Decompression (0,900), a strong correlation between UCLA and ASES were observed. It follows that to subacromial decompression surgery, UCLA shows more reliability and in Capsuloplasty, the Rowe method shows more applicability.

A perimenopausa é a fase da vida reprodutiva feminina caracterizada diversas alterações, inclusive cognitivas devido ao hipoestrogenismo. Através de estudo duplo-cego randomizado com 16 mulheres na perimenopausa deprimidas que receberam estradiol e 16 que receberam placebo analisou-se as alterações cognitivas da atenção, memória e linguagem; o efeito da reposição hormonal com estradiol e a correlação entre os sintomas depressivos e menopausais com as alterações destas funções. Os resultados mostraram: melhora do controle inibitório, memória imediata e tardia (verbal e visual) e da capacidade de nomeação nos dois grupos; melhora dos sintomas depressivos e menopausais para o grupo que recebeu reposição hormonal: e não correlação entre a melhora destes sintomas e a melhora das funções cognitivas / Perimenopause is the female reproductive life period characterized by several changes including cognitive impairments related to hypoestrogenism. In a randomized double-blind study 16 depressive perimenopaused women took estradiol, while another group of 16 depressive perimenopaused women took placebo. Cognitive alterations associated to attention, memory and language, and estradiol hormone replacement therapy effects were evaluated. In addition, correlations among symptoms of depression and menopause, and cognitive alterations were also analyzed. The results had shown, in both groups, an improvement in inhibitory mental control, in immediate and delayed (verbal and visual) memory, and in naming capacity. In the group that received hormone replacement therapy our findings revealed a weakening of depression and menopause symptoms, which had shown no correlation with cognitive functions

O diabetes mellitus (DM) é a principal causa de doença renal crônica (DRC) em vários países do mundo. Para pacientes diabéticos com DRC estágio 5 e indicação da terapia renal substitutiva, o transplante (Tx) renal representa uma modalidade terapêutica com técnica bem estabelecida e com excelentes resultados. O transplante simultâneo de rim-pâncreas (TSRP), uma alternativa mais recente praticada em um número mais restrito de centros, apresenta resultados positivos adicionais no controle metabólico, na qualidade de vida e nas complicações crônicas do diabetes. Entretanto, está associado a um risco maior de complicações pós-operatórias e maior número de internações. Tanto o transplante renal quanto o TSRP estão associados a melhor sobrevida do paciente em relação à diálise. A escolha da melhor modalidade de transplante para o paciente diabético com DRC ainda não está clara. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar os resultados de diferentes modalidades de transplante em pacientes diabéticos com DRC estágio 5, realizados em 3 Centros Brasileiros de Transplante. Assim, analisar a sobrevida do paciente e do enxerto renal após 1, 5 e 8 anos em pacientes DM tipo 1 submetidos a TSRP comparados com transplante renal isolado com doador vivo (DM1-DV) ou transplante de renal isolado com doador falecido (DM1-DF) (Estudo de 3 modalidades de Tx em DM tipo1). Além disso, avaliar em pacientes DM tipo 2, os resultados do transplante renal realizado com doador vivo (DM2-DV) ou doador falecido (DM2-DF) comparados com pacientes DM tipo 1 submetidos ao transplante renal com doador vivo (DM1-DV) ou doador falecido (DM1-DF) (Estudo do Tx em DM tipo 2 vs DM tipo1). Os transplantes foram realizados em 3 Centros de Transplante (Hospital Beneficência Portuguesa, Hospital do Rim e Santa Casa de Porto Alegre). No \"Estudo de 3 modalidades de Tx em DM tipo 1\", foram incluídos 372 transplantes, sendo 262 TSRP, 78 DM1-DV e 32 DM1-DF. No \"Estudo do Tx em DM tipo 2 vs DM tipo 1\", foram incluídos 254 transplantes, sendo 78 DM1-DV, 32 DM1-DF, 61 DM2-DV, 83 DM2-DF. As curvas de sobrevida do paciente e do enxerto renal (Kaplan-Meyer) foram calculadas 1, 5 e 8 anos após o transplante. No \"Estudo de 3 modalidades de Tx em DM tipo 1\", a sobrevida do paciente de receptores de DM1-DV foi significativamente superior comparada com a sobrevida dos receptores de DM1-DF e TSRP no 1º ano (98,7%, 87,5% e 83,2%, respectivamente; p < 0,05) e no 5º ano pós-Tx (90,5%, 70% e 77%, respectivamente; p < 0,05). Não foi observada diferença entre a sobrevida dos pacientes do grupo DM1-DV e TSRP em 8 anos. A sobrevida do enxerto renal foi superior nos receptores DM1-DV no 1º ano pós-Tx, quando comparada com a sobrevida dos receptores DM1-DF e TSRP (96,1%, 84,4% e 80,2%, respectivamente; p < 0,05). Após 5 e 8 anos, a sobrevida do enxerto renal foi semelhante entre os grupos. Ocorreram 90 óbitos durante o período de estudo sendo as principais causas, a infecção (50%) e doença cardiovascular (22%). Óbito com enxerto funcionante e nefropatia crônica do enxerto foram as principais causas de perda do enxerto renal. No \"Estudo do Tx em DM tipo 2 vs DM tipo 1\", como esperado, os pacientes DM tipo 1 eram mais jovens em relação aos pacientes DM tipo 2 (mediana 37,5 e 55 anos, respectivamente; p < 0,0001). Os pacientes transplantados com doador falecido permaneceram maior tempo em tratamento dialítico pré-transplante (mediana 36 meses em DM1-DF e 36 meses em DM2-DF) comparados com pacientes transplantados com doador vivo (mediana 14 meses em DM1-DV e 18 meses em DM2-DV; p < 0,0001). Em pacientes com DM tipo 2, a sobrevida do paciente em 1, 5 e 8 anos nos pacientes DM2-DV foi 95,1%, 87,9% e 81,8%, respectivamente, significativamente maior do que nos pacientes DM2-DF (74,7%, 59,4% e 48,5%, respectivamente; p < 0,01). Em pacientes com DM tipo 1, a sobrevida do paciente em 1, 5 e 8 anos foi 98,7%, 90,5% e 82,1%, respectivamente, significativamente maior do que nos pacientes DM1-DV que nos pacientes DM1-DF (87,5%, 70% e 66,3%, respectivamente; p < 0,01). Comparando-se a sobrevida dos pacientes DM tipo 2 em relação aos DM tipo 1 submetidos a transplante com um mesmo tipo de doador, não foi observado diferença estatisticamente significante. Pacientes do grupo DM2-DV e pacientes DM1-DV apresentaram sobrevidas semelhantes. A sobrevida dos pacientes DM2-DF encontrada foi inferior em relação aos pacientes DM1-DF, porém sem diferença estatística. Em pacientes com DM tipo 2, a sobrevida do enxerto renal em 1, 5 e 8 anos nos pacientes DM2-DV foi 91,8%, 81,2% e 75,3%, respectivamente, significativamente maior do que nos pacientes DM2-DF (73,5%, 54,9% e 44.3%, respectivamente; p < 0,01). Em pacientes com DM tipo 1, a sobrevida do enxerto renal em 1, 5 e 8 anos nos pacientes DM1-DV foi 96,1%, 80,8% e 72,3%, respectivamente, significativamente maior do que nos pacientes DM1-DF (84,4%, 66,8% e 59,3%, respectivamente; p < 0,01) apenas no primeiro ano. Ocorreram 52 óbitos em pacientes DM tipo 2 sendo a infecção principal causa de óbito nos pacientes DM2-DF e a doença cardiovascular a principal causa de óbito nos DM2-DV. Ocorreram 23 óbitos no grupo de pacientes DM tipo 1 e a principal causa foi infecção nos pacientes DM1-DF e a doença cardiovascular nos DM1-DV. A principal causa de perda do enxerto renal foi óbito com enxerto funcionante (74%), seguido pela nefropatia crônica do enxerto (15%). Conclusão: Os resultados do \"Estudo de 3 modalidades de Tx em DM tipo1\" mostraram que em pacientes portadores de DM tipo 1 o transplante renal isolado realizado com doador vivo apresentou resultados superiores em relação às outras modalidades de transplante. Entretanto, em longo prazo, a sobrevida dos pacientes submetidos ao transplante renal com doador vivo não foi estatisticamente diferente do TSRP. Os resultados do \"Estudo do Tx em DM tipo 2 vs DM tipo1\" mostraram que o transplante renal com doador vivo é uma boa opção de terapia renal substitutiva para pacientes com DM tipo 2. Entretanto, os resultados observados nesta análise desencorajam a indicação de transplante renal com doador falecido para pacientes portadores de DM tipo 2, devendo ser indicado apenas em casos selecionados / Diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in several countries around the world. For diabetic patients with stage 5 CKD with an indication of renal replacement therapy, renal transplantation is a therapeutic modality with well-established technique and with excellent results. The simultaneous kidney-pancreas transplantation (SPK), a more recent modality of treatment, performed in a limited number of centers, presents additional positive results in metabolic control, quality of life, and chronic complications of diabetes mellitus (DM). However, it is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications and a higher number of hospitalizations. Both renal and SPK transplantation are associated with better patient survival outcomes compared to dialysis. The choice of the best modality of transplantation for diabetic patients with CKD is not yet clear. The aim of this study was to analyze the results of different modalities of transplant for diabetic patients with CKD stage 5, performed in 3 Brazilian Transplant Centers. More specifically, the aim of this study was to analyze the patient and graft survival after 1, 5, and 8 years post-transplantation in type 1 DM patients submitted to SPK compared with diabetic patients submitted to isolated kidney transplant with living donor (DM1-LD) or deceased donor (DM1-DD) (Study of 3 Tx (transplant) modalities in type 1 DM). In addition, the aim of this study was also to evaluate the results of renal transplantation in type 2 DM performed with living donor (DM2-LD) or deceased donor (DM2-DD) compared with kidney transplantation in type 1 DM performed with living donor (DM2-LD) or deceased donor (DM2-DD) (Study of Tx in type 2 DM vs. type 1 DM). The transplants were performed in 3 Transplant Centers (Hospital Beneficência Portuguesa, Hospital do Rim, and Santa Casa de Porto Alegre). In the \"Study of 3 transplant modalities in type 1 DM\", 372 recipients were included, (262 SPK, 78 DM1-LD, and 32 DM1-DD). In the \"Study of Tx in type 2 DM vs. type 1 DM\", 254 transplants were included, 78 DM1-LD, 32 DM1-DD, 61 DM2-LD, 83 DM2-DD. Patient and graft survival distribution estimates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method in the 1, 5 and 8 years post-transplantation. In the \"Study of 3 transplant Tx modalities in type 1 DM\", the patient survival of DM1-LD recipients was significantly higher compared with the survival of DM1-DD and SPK at 1 year (98.7%, 87.5% and 83.2%, respectively; p < 0.05), and at 5 years post-transplantation (90.5%, 70% and 77%, respectively; p < 0.05). After 8 years, there was no significant difference between the survival of patients in group DM1-LD and SPK. The kidney graft survival was higher in DM1-LD, at 1 year, compared with survival of DM1-DD and SPK (96.2%, 84.4% and 80.8%, respectively; p < 0.05). After 5 and 8 years, the kidney graft survival was similar between the groups. There were 90 deaths during the study period and infection (50%) and cardiovascular disease (22%) were the major causes. Death with a functioning graft and chronic allograft nephropathy were the main causes of kidney graft loss. In the \"Study of Tx in type 2 DM vs. type 1 DM\", type 1 DM patients were younger compared to type 2 DM patients (median 37.5 and 55 years, respectively; p < 0.0001). Recipients of deceased donor remained longer time on dialysis before transplantation (median 36 months in DM1-DD, and 36 in DM2-DD) compared with patients transplanted with living donor (median 14 months in DM1-LD and 18 months in DM2-LD, p < 0.0001). In type 2 DM, patient survival at 1, 5 and 8 years in the group DM2-LD was 95.1%, 87.9%, and 81.8, respectively, significantly higher than patient survival in DM2-DD recipients (74.7, 59,4, and 48.5; respectively, p < 0.01). In type 1 DM, patient survival at 1, 5 and 8 years in the group DM1-LD was 98.7%, 90.5% and 82.1%, respectively, significantly higher than patient survival in DM1-DD recipients ( 87.5%, 70%, and 48.5%; respectively, p < 0.01). The comparison between patient survival with type 2 DM and type 1 DM undergoing kidney transplantation with the same type of donor, was not statistically different between the groups. Patient survival in group DM2-LD and DM1-LD was not different. Patient survival in the group DM2-DD was inferior to the group DM1-DD but without significant differences. In type 2 DM, kidney survival at 1, 5 and 8 years in the group DM2-LD was 91.8%, 81 2%, and 75.3%, respectively, significantly higher than patient survival in DM2-DD recipients (73.5%, 54.9%, and 44.3%, respectively, p < 0.01). In type 1 DM, kidney survival at 1, 5 and 8 years in the group DM1-LD was 96.1%, 80.8%, and 72.3%,, respectively, significantly higher than patient survival in DM1-DD recipients (84.4%, 66.8%, and 59.3%, respectively, p < 0.01) only in the first year. In these patients the kidney graft survival was superior in the group DM2-LD compared with DM2-DD. In type 1 DM patients kidney graft survival was 96.1%, 80.8% and 72.3% in patients DM1-LD; 84.4%, 66.8% and 59.3% in patients DM1-DD (p < 0.01); respectively. There were 52 deaths in the group of type 2 DM patients. Infection was the main cause of death in the group DM2-DD, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause in DM2-LD. There were 23 deaths in the group of type 1 DM patients and the main cause was infection in the group DM1-DD and cardiovascular disease in the group DM1-LD. The main cause of kidney graft loss was death with a functioning graft (74%), followed by chronic allograft nephropathy (15%). Patients in group DM2-LD showed good survival rates, particularly in the first year. Conclusion: The \"Study of 3 transplant modalities in type 1 DM\" showed better patient and graft survival with isolated kidney transplantation with living donor compared with others transplant modalities. However, at longer follow up (8 years), survival of patients undergoing living donor kidney transplantation was not statistically different to SPK. In the \"Study of Tx in type 2 DM vs. type 1 DM\", renal transplantation performed with living donor is a good option of renal replacement therapy for type 2 DM. The results observed in this analysis discourage the indication of kidney transplantation with deceased donor for patients with type 2 DM, which should be indicated in selected cases