The mobility of urban residents has been expanding over time. Kitamura and susilo (2005) have shown that this expansion stems more from structural change (i.e. change in the relationship between travel behavior and demographic factors), than from change in demographic and socio-economic characteristics (for example, attributes of the individuals and households, such as, more women employed, the household size shrinking, and the resident population aging) of urban residents. Urry (2005) went to conjecture that this structural change is due to increasingly prevailing automobility, i.e., conversion of social and economic system and way of life to adapt to the ownership and use of the automobile. In this study, this conjecture is explored by examining automobility characteristics across lifecycle stages and across automobility cohorts over time. The level of automobility is operationally defined in this study in terms of: automobile ownership, total auto travel time, modal split, and the fraction of trip attraction in traditional central city in the study area. The Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe (Keihanshin) metropolitan area of Japan is the study area of this effort. Intra-household interaction has dominant influences on household members' activity and travel, and also it is closely associated with lifecycle stage. Lifecycle stage factor is introduced into the analytical scope of this study and regarded as a main factor through this research. Nine stages of household lifecycle are formulated according to the classification scheme of the family lifecycle stage. The classification scheme utilizes the criteria, which generally are age and marital status of household head, presence and age of children of head, presence of other relatives and non-relatives. On the other side, changing the built environment affects urban residents' travel behavior to a large extent. This study explores how automobility characteristics and travel activity behavior changed across lifecycle stages within different residential areas over time using statistical analyses. The results confirm that the residence area rather than lifecycle stage is a significant explainer for automobile ownership and automobile use. It further suggests that even within each lifecycle stage, change in the automobile use over time is suppressed in commercial and mixed commercial/residential areas. However, the fraction of automobile trips for suburbs, unurbanized areas, and autonomous areas increased over time in the range of 0 to 4 times depending on the lifecycle stage. Younger childless couple stage and all adults' stage are more auto-oriented in suburbs, unurbanized area, and autonomous areas, and this trend becomes stronger as automobility progresses. No significant differences were observed in the numbers of trips for households of the same lifecycle stage across different residential areas, suggesting that similarly active lifestyles exist. The results suggest that household members' age is also a strong explainer for the fraction of auto trips and total auto travel time, through a four variable ANOVA analysis, including lifecycle stage, residence area, time, and age effect. It has been pointed out that the elderly of these days behave differently than the elderly grew up with the automobile and have been using it ever since their habit forming ages. Thus another important factor introduced into this research is automobility cohort which is defined by grouping individuals who turn 20 years old during the time period indicated. Each time period is chosen with respect to the level of automobility. The following five cohorts are developed for the study area and used in the analysis: pre-war (up to 1945), pre-motorization (1946-1960), initial growth (1961-1970), mass-ownership (1971-1980), and multi-car ownership (1980-). Using the repeated cross-sectional data of Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe metropolitan area in 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, this study has attempted to offer a possible explanation of the increases in automobility characteristics by examining automobility characteristics of automobility cohorts. In addition, time effects and age effects are introduced into the analysis as in standard cohort analysis. It focused on statistical age-period-cohort analysis using the popular multiple classification APC model. The identifiability problem attendant with the use of APC model was discussed with repeated cross-sectional data. An interesting finding is shown that pre-war and pre-motorization cohorts show little, roughly 6%, increase on the fraction of auto trips and nearly unchanged on total auto travel time over 1970 through 2000, although their household automobile ownership has increased more than 2 times. Initial growth, mass-ownership, and multi-car ownership cohorts show a great growth of automobile ownership, the fraction of auto trips, and auto travel time from 1970 to 2000, but a little surprising result is that mass-ownership cohorts, not multi-car ownership cohorts, show the largest increases to rely on auto use over 1970 through 2000. The above results confirm that each cohort having certain automobility traits that are unique, especially in terms of auto use. The standard age-period-cohort analysis confirms that automobility cohort effect do exist, unfortunately, automobility cohort effect is not an important explainer for automobility characteristics, while time effect plays an important part in automobile ownership choice, and age effect mainly determines automobile use. An attempt at APC-RA model illustrate that residence area rather than time effect have the strongest impact on automobile ownership, and age effect is still a significant explainer for the fraction of auto trips and auto travel time. This result is different with the results of age-period-cohort analysis, which further emphasize that residence area is a significant explainer for household automobile ownership in the Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe metropolitan area from 1970 to 2000. Significant changes in demographic and socio-economic characteristics of urban resident have taken place over the past several decades. Most notable are: aging of the population and resulting increases in retired, non-employed individuals; decreasing household size caused by increasing fractions of single individuals and couples with fewer children; increased labor force participation by women; general increased in income; and increasing auto ownership and auto dependence. The overall effects on travel of these changes are complex and future trends are not immediately obvious, partly because some of the changes have opposite, cancelling effects on travel, and partly because these changes themselves are not independent but closely linked to each other. Prevailing tendencies in travel, however, have been expansion—urban residents' travel has continuously expanded over time in terms of total travel time (or distance), auto use, energy consumption, and the spatial extension of their action space. Will these trends continue into the future? Or will the trend change due to the aging of the urban population? Or are there other factors at work? If so, what are the magnitudes of demographic effects relative to theirs? The focus of this study is on auto travel. The analysis examines how auto travel has changed over time with changing demographics, residential location, and metropolitan structure. Simultaneous equations model systems are developed at the household level, with auto ownership, fraction of auto trips and total auto travel time as its dependent (or endogenous) variables. Their automobility characteristics are characterized and behavioral distinction identified through examination of the models' coefficient estimates. Using the repeated household travel survey results, the stability over time of the simultaneous equation system is statistically examined, and thereby the effects of demographics changes are separated from those of structural change. Using the results, it is shown how much of the change in urban auto travel is due to changes in demographics and how much is due to structural change. The statistical analyses have offered strong evidence that urban residents' auto use have been expanding. The results have further indicated that this expansion has been caused primarily by changes in the structural relationships even mixed changes in demographic factors have had opposite, cancelling effects on auto travel. In addition, the resultant model system is applied in a scenario analysis to forecast possible changes in future auto travel that will follow hypothetical demographic changes in the metropolitan area. To face the coming global energy crisis and air pollution issues, the above results with the findings of this study would suggest that significantly more sustainable behavior for society would be possible with more compact built environments that facilitate non-motorized and public transit travel. Unfortunately, it takes time, money, resources, and the political will to change the built environment and initial steps that educate the public such as voluntary travel behavior change may be necessary first steps on the move to more sustainable travel. As a suggestion for future works, more statistical analysis on interaction effects of three variables or four variables ANOVA analysis, including lifecycle stage, residence area, time, and age effects, need to be considered. Also, the interaction effects of age-period-cohort analysis need us to pay more attention on the future work. The simultaneous equations model system is developed as an attempt to explore how much of the change in urban travel is due to changes in demographics and how much is due to structural change, more endogenous variable could be considered in the future research, such as, residential location, commute distance, and commute trip mode choice. / Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第14925号 / 工博第3152号 / 新制||工||1473(附属図書館) / 27363 / UT51-2009-M839 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 藤井 聡, 准教授 吉井 稔雄, 准教授 宇野 伸宏 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

Research on urban travel represents an important area in geography, transportation planning and urban studies. Compared to the traditional trip based approach, the activity based approach offers a better understanding of the motivations underlying travel, that is, activity participation. Urban activity-travel is complex as it takes place both in space and time. Building upon the time geography framework, this study provides new ways to characterize urban activity-travel and examine the association with accessibility. A new optimization model incorporating complex urban travel is also proposed for service provision planning. Activity space represents an important concept for understanding human activity-travel. The geometry based approaches widely used for delineating activity spaces are limited in fully characterizing real-world travel behavior. To address the issue, Chapter 2 proposes a new time geography based approach to more accurately portray urban activity spaces. The proposed approach takes into account the full complexity of real-world travel and underlying urban structures. Results of an empirical study are presented based on the 2008 Add-on National Household Travel Survey conducted in Tucson, Arizona. Activity spaces of 1,164 sample travelers are delineated and analyzed. Results show the effectiveness of the new approach in more realistically depicting urban activity-travel. Understanding the impact of the built environment on travel is important for formulating effective travel reduction policies. In Chapter 3, a study is presented to examine the relationship between accessibility to urban opportunities and urban travel. Activity spaces are drawn to characterize the spatial extent of activity-travel, and a new accessibility measure is introduced to account for the complexity of urban travel. An empirical study based on a travel survey dataset in Tucson, Arizona shows that improved accessibility is generally associated with reduced travel, but such an effect varies across different activity types. In addition, employment status and trip-chaining behavior can be used to explain the varying influences on the accessibility-travel relationship. In Chapter 4, a new multi-objective location model is developed with the goal of accessibility maximization. The model extends the classic p-median problem (PMP) to account for accessibility in a more realistic manner. Trip chaining and activity space are incorporated into the location model. In addition to fixed home locations, stops along chained trips are allowed for potential service site visits. The model is applied to locate service facilities in Tucson, AZ. Alternative versions of the objective function are solved exactly with the resulting sets of optimal facility locations displayed and analyzed. Decision makers are given flexibility to determine the relative importance for each of three sub-objective, based on the type of services being located, their preferences and practical needs.

This paper presents a two-stage model of optimization as a quick method to choose the best potential links for implementing urban travel demand management (UTDM) strategy like road pricing. The model is optimized by minimizing the hidden cost of congestion based on user equilibrium (MHCCUE). It forecasts the exact amount of flows and tolls for links in user equilibrium condition to determine the hidden cost for each link to optimize the link selection based on the network congestion priority. The results show that not only the amount of total cost is decreased, but also the number of selected links for pricing is reduced as compared with the previous toll minimization methods. Moreover, as this model just uses the traffic assignment data for calculation, it could be considered as a quick and optimum solution for choosing the potential links.

Em junho de 2013, o reajuste de R$ 0,20 na tarifa de ônibus gerou uma série de manifestações populares no país que acabaram fazendo alguns governos, como o da cidade de São Paulo, voltarem atrás e arcarem com essa diferença com as empresas de ônibus. Visto isso, o prefeito de São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, propôs uma política de municipalização de um tributo imposto sobre a gasolina, a CIDE, para financiar o transporte público urbano. Nesse contexto, foi encomendada uma pesquisa a Fundação Getúlio Vargas para responder a magnitude do impacto desse subsídio cruzado entre usuários do transporte privado e coletivo. Esse trabalho utiliza o resultado encontrado por essa pesquisa para responder qual o efeito sobre o tráfego da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo utilizando dados da Pesquisa de Origem e Destino de 2007. Os resultados encontrados mostram que a política de subsídio cruzado proporciona um baixo deslocamento no fluxo dos modos de transporte. Além disso, a análise de bem estar da política mostra que os mais favorecidos são os indivíduos de baixa renda. A estimação é feita com base em dois modelos de escolha discreta (Multinomial e Mixed Logit), separada por dois motivos de viagem: trabalho e estudo. E, as simulações de deslocamento de demanda utilizam dois valores de tributos, R$ 0,10 e R$ 0,50. / In June 2013, the increase of 0.20 BRL in bus fare has emerged a series of popular demonstrations in the country that ended up making some governments, such as the city of São Paulo, backtrack and pay out this difference with the buses company. So, the mayor of São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, proposed a policy of decentralization of a tax imposed on gasoline, CIDE, to finance urban public transport. In this context, a report was commissioned to Fundação Getúlio Vargas to respond the magnitude of the impact of cross-subsidy between users of private and collective transport. This work uses the results found in this report to answer the effect on traffic in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo using data from the Source and Destination Survey of 2007. Results show that the cross-subsidy policy provides a low offset in the flow modes of transport. Moreover, the analysis of welfare policy shows that the most favored are the low-income individuals. The estimation is based on two discrete choice models (Multinomial and Mixed Logit), separate for two reasons of trips: work and study. And the simulations of displacement demand use two values of taxes, 0.10 and 0.50 BRL.

Em junho de 2013, o reajuste de R$ 0,20 na tarifa de ônibus gerou uma série de manifestações populares no país que acabaram fazendo alguns governos, como o da cidade de São Paulo, voltarem atrás e arcarem com essa diferença com as empresas de ônibus. Visto isso, o prefeito de São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, propôs uma política de municipalização de um tributo imposto sobre a gasolina, a CIDE, para financiar o transporte público urbano. Nesse contexto, foi encomendada uma pesquisa a Fundação Getúlio Vargas para responder a magnitude do impacto desse subsídio cruzado entre usuários do transporte privado e coletivo. Esse trabalho utiliza o resultado encontrado por essa pesquisa para responder qual o efeito sobre o tráfego da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo utilizando dados da Pesquisa de Origem e Destino de 2007. Os resultados encontrados mostram que a política de subsídio cruzado proporciona um baixo deslocamento no fluxo dos modos de transporte. Além disso, a análise de bem estar da política mostra que os mais favorecidos são os indivíduos de baixa renda. A estimação é feita com base em dois modelos de escolha discreta (Multinomial e Mixed Logit), separada por dois motivos de viagem: trabalho e estudo. E, as simulações de deslocamento de demanda utilizam dois valores de tributos, R$ 0,10 e R$ 0,50. / In June 2013, the increase of 0.20 BRL in bus fare has emerged a series of popular demonstrations in the country that ended up making some governments, such as the city of São Paulo, backtrack and pay out this difference with the buses company. So, the mayor of São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, proposed a policy of decentralization of a tax imposed on gasoline, CIDE, to finance urban public transport. In this context, a report was commissioned to Fundação Getúlio Vargas to respond the magnitude of the impact of cross-subsidy between users of private and collective transport. This work uses the results found in this report to answer the effect on traffic in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo using data from the Source and Destination Survey of 2007. Results show that the cross-subsidy policy provides a low offset in the flow modes of transport. Moreover, the analysis of welfare policy shows that the most favored are the low-income individuals. The estimation is based on two discrete choice models (Multinomial and Mixed Logit), separate for two reasons of trips: work and study. And the simulations of displacement demand use two values of taxes, 0.10 and 0.50 BRL.

L’hégémonie des modes de transport motorisés individuels est aujourd’hui un des problèmes ardus dans le domaine du transport urbain. Avec l’objectif du développement durable des villes, le développement durable du transport et de la mobilité, en limitant les nuisances du système de transport motorisé (la congestion, la pollution, l’insécurité routière, la dégradation du paysage, l’externalité des modes non-motorisés, l’inégalité sociale, etc.) est aussi une demande essentielle et urgente dans beaucoup de villes du Monde, dont le Vietnam. Hanoi est une grande agglomération vietnamienne où les motos (2 roues à moteur) jouent actuellement jusqu’à 80% des déplacements quotidiens des habitants, et le transport en commun par bus assure une petite partie seulement des déplacements des gens. Les habitants de Hanoi vivent dans un milieu de congestion et de pollution de l’air très grave. Les politiques des autorités vietnamiennes visant à restreindre les modes motorisés privés et encourager les reports modaux vers les transports en commun et les modes non-motorisés (la marche, le vélo) n’ont pas les résultats escomptés. Pour répondre à la question « pour quelle raison les reports modaux vers les TC et les modes non-motorisés ne sont pas largement mis en place » et « pour quelle raison les politiques de transport urbain ont échoué », dans le cadre de ma thèse, j’ai réalisé des enquêtes ménage de transport auprès des habitants à Hanoi et des entretiens profonds auprès des experts et des autorités vietnamiennes en souhaitant avoir la réponse sous deux l’angle : l’angle socio-mobile et l’angle politique. Sous l’angle socio-mobile, mes enquêtes contribuent à une meilleure connaissance des déterminants du choix modal dans la mobilité quotidienne de différentes catégories de population à Hanoi, d’expliquer les raisons, les obstacles à un report modal vers les TNM et les TC pour différents types de déplacements, de connaître les raisons profondes du report modal observé chez certains enquêtés. Sous l’angle politique, j’observe si les conditions des politiques sont remplies ou non pour une mise en place des reports modaux chez les habitants. Enfin, l’objectif de la thèse est aussi de créer un modèle d’analyse sur la mobilité urbaine, le choix modal et le report modal spécifiquement pour le cas de Hanoi, qui formera une bonne référence pour la définition des politiques de transport urbain durable. / The hegemony of private motorized transport is nowadays one of the difficult problems in the field of urban transport. In the objective of urban sustainable development, sustainable transport and mobility by reducing consequences from motorized transport system (congestion, pollution, road safety, landscape degradation, the externality of non-motorized modes, social inequality, etc.) which is an essential and urgent demand in many cities in the world, including Vietnam. Hanoi is a large city in Vietnam where bikes (2 wheelers) are currently up to 80% of the daily movements of people, and public transport by bus provides only a small part of the movement of people. The people of Hanoi are living in an environment of very serious congestion and air pollution. Policies of the Vietnamese authorities to restrict private motorized modes and to encourage modal shift towards public transport and non-motorized modes (walking, cycling) have no outcome. To answer the question "why the modal shift towards the TC and non-motorized modes are not well set up" and "why the urban transport policies are stranded," as part of my thesis, I conducted surveys of household transport to the residents in Hanoi and deep interviews with experts and Vietnamese authorities hoping to have the answer in two terms: social and political. In terms of society, my investigations contribute to a better understanding of the determinants of mode choice in daily mobility of different social classes in Hanoi, to explain the reasons, barriers to a modal shift to NMT and TC for different types of travel, to know the underlying reasons of modal shift observed in some respondents. In terms of policy, I note that if the conditions of the policy are implemented or not for a modal shifts from bikes towards public transport. In the end, the objective of the thesis is also creating an analysis model of urban mobility, modal choice and modal shift, specifically for the case of Hanoi, which will form a good reference for the definition of sustainable urban transport policies.