No description available.

Miesto gyventojų mobilumas, dažnai suprantamas kaip susisiekimo rodiklis, yra vienas iš svarbiausių, miesto struktūrą formuojančių veiksnių. Įvairių išorinių veiksnių sąlygoti fizinio mobilumo galimybių apribojimai iššaukia lokalizacinį arba virtualų gyventojų mobilumą, o tuo pačiu pokyčius miestų planavime. Todėl yra kaip niekad svarbu atrasti ryšį tarp nusistovėjusių urbanistinių modelių vystymo ir virtualaus mobilumo bei to įtaką gyventojų gyvenimo ir keliavimo įpročiams ir jų tenkinimo galimybėms. Disertacijos santraukoje pateikiami Lietuvos ir užsienio mokslininkų atliktų tyrimų rezultatai bei prielaidos susiję su gyventojų fiziniu ir virtualiu mobilumu, mobilumo valdymu, bei jo integravimu į darnios plėtros principais paremtą miestų užstatymo planavimo sistemą. Pateikiamas virtualaus tyrimo modelis bei svarbiausi virtualaus ir fizinio mobilumo sąveikos ir prielaidų tam rezultatai. Taip pat pateiktas fizinių kelionių pakeičiamumo virtualiomis modelis. Modelis iliustruoja kokiomis sąlygomis ir kokios tikslinės kelionės gali būti pakeičiamos virtualiomis. Parengtos ir santraukos apimtyje pateiktos penkios virtualaus mobilumo duomenų integravimo į transporto ir teritorijų planavimo procesą rekomendacijos, atsižvelgiant į skirtingus darniosios plėtros kriterijus. / Mobility is often understood as an indicator of communication, thus it is one of the main factors influencing cities structure. Limitation of physical mobility possibilities raises up other types of mobility as local or virtual ones and thus changes in cities and its planning. That‘s why it is important as never before to define the correlation between development of settled urban models and virtual mobility and its impact on citizens travelling habits and ways to meet their needs. In the summary of doctoral dissertation results of research made by Lithuanian and foreign scientists and presumptions related to physical and virtual mobility, mobility management and its integration into planning system based on SD principles have been presented. The theoretical model for a virtual mobility research was created and presented as well as the estimation of the amount of virtual mobility in Lithuania. Based on the obtained results the main assumptions have been formulated allowing to more effectively plan the land-tenure of transport and social infrastructure and to optimize new construction.

The current study developed a paleolimnological approach to assess changes in diatom assemblages (class Bacillariophyceae) from present-day lake sediments in comparison to those deposited before significant human impact (ca. pre-1850) from 51 Halifax (Nova Scotia, Canada) region lakes in conjunction with a regional diatom-based transfer functions for pH and total phosphorus. All 51 lakes showed changes in diatom assemblages between the present-day and pre-industrial assemblages that was greater than would be expected (i.e. similarity between ‘top’ and ‘bottom’ samples was much less than the similarities within triplicate ‘top’ and ‘bottom’ samples). To help identify the most important environmental stressors impacting diatom assemblages in these lakes, diatom-based reconstructions of inferred changes in pH (DI-pH) and total phosphorus (DI-TP) that were greater than the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of the respective inference models were reconstructed for each of the 51 lakes. For example, a decrease in DI-pH greater than the RMSE of the pH model would be a strong indication of recent acidification, whereas an increase in DI-TP greater than the RMSE of the model indicates nutrient enrichment. Based on this approach, 4% of the lakes are showing acidification-related trends occurring in lakes with low pre-industrial pH values and relatively undisturbed watersheds. Almost 14% of the study lakes have been impacted by nutrients and characterized by watershed development and high concentrations of TP. Approximately 4% of lakes showed oligotrophication and acidification. Diatom assemblages from almost 20% of the study lakes that were relatively unimpacted by the afore-listed environmental stressors show trends consistent with climate warming. These lakes show an increase in DI-pH greater than the RMSE of the inference model, and floristic changes typically showed a decrease in the relative abundance of Aulacoseira distans paralleled with increase in Cyclotella stelligera and other planktonic diatoms in the modern sediments. In addition, Diatoma tenue and Diploneis parma, diatoms tolerant of high conductivity, increased in 45% of the study lakes suggesting road salt as an additional stressor. This thesis provides a rapid paleolimnological-based technique to assess regional water-quality changes, and further demonstrates the complexity of ecological changes within freshwater resources. / Thesis (Master, Biology) -- Queen's University, 2009-09-10 15:18:07.01

Urbanisation is driven by the complex interactions of many physical and human factors where human actions and decisions, individually and collectively, ultimately shape the patterns of urban landscapes. Agentbased modelling is an emerging technique in land use science that is designed to study multiple heterogeneous and locally interacting active entities within a system. An example of a local interaction is the request made by residents to planners for building permits. The decisions of planners in response to this request leads to emergent properties at an aggregate level such as city growth, assuming no equilibrium conditions. This thesis develops a framework for investigating in space and in time future residential land use change over a polycentric region using a case study of East Anglia, UK. Conceptually, the framework views the complexity of housing development in a system of cities (macrogeographical level) as the visible and concrete outcome of interactions between household demand for new dwellings (micro-geographical level) and the supply of building permits by local planners (meso-geographical level). Demand and supply are driven by household location preferences, as well as local planning, and evolve over time, leading to future land use change at speci c locations. The IPCC socio-economic scenarios are adapted to describe plausible evolutions in these preferences and strategies in order to evaluate di erent urban land use change pathways and the associated potential consequences for people (e.g. ooding risks) and the environment (e.g. biodiversity loss from land fragmentation). Simulation of new housing scenarios is undertaken within the agent-based modelling paradigm using a new computer programme developed in NetLogo. Issues of sensitivity analysis, validation, calibration and system complexity are addressed throughout the thesis. The thesis contributes to the eld of landscape and urban ecology by exploring urban complexity with a spatio-dynamic model of residential location behaviour driven by human and natural variables. As land use and land cover change is known to strongly a ect ecological landscape functions and processes, understanding the relationships between social and natural systems within changing landscapes helps to highlight hotspots of potential pressure and their e ects on the natural environment as part of an assessment of the possible ecological impacts of new urban development.

Reliable and precise information about possible floods, related water levels and inundation areas are needed even in urban areas to minimize potential damages. An important requirement for this issue is to adapt the stage-discharge relations to the changing constraints which could arise from morphology and hydrology. This paper reconsiders the use of historical hydrologic data in urban areas which have fundamentally changed even concerning the river beds, cross sections and floodplain areas. By means of a historical approach the flood statistics have been updated with surprising results.

The thesis comprises five papers and an introductory overview of applied models and methods. The papers concern interdependences and interrelations in models applied to empirical analyses of various problems related to production, consumption, location and trade. Among different definitions of 'structural analysis' one refers to the study of the properties of economic models on the assumption of invariant structural relations, this definition is close to what is aimed at in lire present case. Although the subjects cover widely differing aspects of the economic system, applied models and methods, i.e. entropy maximizing (information minimizing) models and random utility maximizing models, are in many cases closely connected. Tlic first paper reports on a regional input-ouput study applied to Norrbotten, Sweden. The paper is mainly concentrated on developing and estimating an econometric model, describing the structural interdependences in the Norrbotten economy. The chapter is composed of three parts. The first part concerns the theoretical basis of the model, the main fields of application and principal problems in connection with the estimation. The core of the estimated model is defined by the intersectoral dependences in the Norrbotten economy. This model can be viewed as a part of a more general model of the regional economy, and such a general model is briefly outlined. The second part reports on the collection and arranging of data, and the methods used for the estimation of the model. In the third part the results are presented. A special interest concerns the effects of production changes in the basic industries in the county, as to the expected impact on different industries and occupational groups. The second paper concerns some aspects of the problem of predicting trade flows in the forest sector. The model, based on information theory, is predicting current trade flows by adjusting the historical, a priori, trade flows to satisfy current export and import totals. In the third paper an entropy model is employed to decompose the interregional and intraregional employment change in Sweden and Stockholm, during the period 1960 - 1980, into effects attributed to regions (zones), industries, occupations and interaction effects. The fourth paper presents an empirical analysis of housing choice, based on individual data of households in Stockholm. The consumer choice is regarded as a complex choice from a finite set of discrete alternatives and a probabilistic choice mode! (multinomial logit) is employed, where secondary dwelling is included in the housing choice decision. In the final paper spectral analysis is used for identifying the significant components of cycle behaviour in time series of Swedish exports of forest products over a twenty year time period. / digitalisering@umu

Many cities, including some in New Zealand, are investigating, developing or implementing urban form strategies and, separately, Park and Ride systems. These two matters are not generally considered alongside one another. This paper explores the relationship and interactions between urban form and Park and Ride systems through the identification of objectives for each, and considering the degree to which objectives of various urban form types may be achieved with different types of Park and Ride systems. The purpose of this research project is to investigate and develop a predictive methodology that would allow the identification of the most suitable Park and Ride system (from a proposed classification scheme) for a given set of urban form objectives. Classification systems for urban form and Park and Ride systems are proposed in light of information from an extensive literature and information review. They are used as a basis for an Assessment Framework Matrix of urban form type against Park and Ride type. The matrix is populated from a spreadsheet-based analysis process, which considers the degree of achievement of urban form objectives by various Park and Ride categories. This process is hampered by the lack of (easily accessible) data, particularly for strategic assessment of existing Park and Ride systems worldwide. A range of tests are conducted on the proposed Assessment Framework Matrix using real cities, a range of hypothetical urban areas, and several sensitivity tests. Subsequently, a case study applies the matrix to Christchurch, New Zealand. The main findings of this research project indicate that the proposed methodology works, needs refining with better data, could be useable in public or stakeholder engagement processes, and would benefit from a "User Manual" and some simplification. The case study tentatively indicates a recommended Park and Ride system type for Christchurch.

This research advances Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) design and methodology for wetland assessment and policy development within an urban planning context. The thesis is a ‘manuscript-style’ and consists of three manuscripts, which collectively contribute to the overarching research purpose. The first manuscript presents and demonstrates a spatial framework for the application of SEA in the context of land use change analysis for urban wetland environment. The study aims to meet the needs for a proactive framework to assess and protect wetland areas more efficiently, and advance urban planning and development design. The proposed framework, adopting Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing approaches, presents a temporal evaluation of wetland change and sustainability assessment based on landscape indicator analysis. The results show that despite the recent extremely wet period in the Canadian prairie region, land use change contributed to increasing threats to wetland sustainability in the developing urban environment of the city of Saskatoon from 1985 to 2011. The second manuscript presents a scenario-based approach to SEA for wetland trends analysis and land use and land cover (LUC) modeling. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city planning documentation using a Markov chain technique. Two alternatives were developed for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under Saskatoon’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC differences, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The results also demonstrate the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation. The third manuscript presents an analytical approach to SEA, bridging strategic level assessment with operational planning and implementation. An expert-based strategic assessment framework was developed and applied to assess the potential implications of alternative wetland conservation policy targets on urban planning goals, and to identify a preferred conservation policy target. Site-specific algorithms, based on wetland area and wetland sustainability, were used to prioritize wetlands for conservation to meet policy targets within urban planning units. Results indicate a preferred wetland conservation policy target beyond which higher targets provided no additional benefit to urban development goals. The use of different implementation strategies, based on wetland area versus wetland sustainability, provides operational guidance and choice for planners to meet policy objectives within neighborhood planning units, but those choices have implications for local land use and wetland sustainability. Overall, the research contributes to the following aspects of SEA design and methodology: i) scoping processes to define the spatial and temporal context for SEA; ii) baseline assessment for analysis of environmental conditions and changes across space and/or over time; iii) methods to support the identification and evaluation of potential impacts of strategic alternatives; and iv) structured and systematic, quantitative assessment and decision-support tools for SEA that bridge strategic-level assessment with operational planning and implementation.

This thesis examines localities in the vicinity of cities, starting with Ekeby- Almby which is situated near Örebro. In the past twenty years, Ekeby- Almby has experienced vast sociodemographic changes. These lines of development give rise to a number of questions. For example, does the socioeconomic change of Ekeby-Almby reflect a general trend for this kind of locality? What are the perspectives and concepts that characterise the planning of these localities, and what is the significance of these suburban areas for the urban development as a whole? The purpose of this thesis is to examine the peri-urban localities, their role in, and their significance to, the development of cities. The thesis is made up of three empirical parts. Some of the main results are that the peri-urban localities can bedescribed as continuously growing, even during periods of shrinking towns and growing countryside (70s and 80s), and re-urbanisation (90s and 00s). Other results from the study are that layers of peri-urban localities with partially separatesocioeconomic profiles become apparent. Together these localities are, in various ways, part of the city’s socioeconomic differentiation. Finally, the result from the study indicates that the development of localities is shaped by a series of structures, and actors operating in relation to these. The development of the peri-urban localities can, theoretically, be seen as an urban counter- urbanisation, but perhaps primarily as a Swedish periurbia, and thus as an extension of the city, often described as an urban sprawl. This study also discusses the role of the peri-urban locality in the city’s social geography, where it among other things can be described as the ”hidden” space of the segregated city. Another aspect of the peri-urban locality is that it can be seen as a place which is important in an intermunicipal competition in population growth.

Ecological succession is the process of how natural communities change over time. Succession of the built environment occurs through the transition of neighborhoods. Early examples of parallel transitions include the conversion of wilderness land to agriculture and of agricultural land to urban centers. Energy development or the lack thereof, remains the biggest factor driving succession of the built environment. The following document creates a parallel symbiotic dialogue for applying scientific laws of the natural world to the built environment. This is achieved by examining factors driving primary and secondary succession, in the natural world and the built environment. By analyzing means of succession, it is possible to negate adverse effects through effective planning. Case studies are provided as evidence of possible implications. This paradigm will serve as a blueprint for creating a comprehensive preservation plan which will foster positive economic growth, environmental stewardship, and a strong sense of cultural identity. / Natural laws governing development of the paradigm -- Factors driving succession -- Historic context -- The role of historic preservation -- The case for preservation planning -- Implications of primary succession -- Implications of secondary succession. / Department of Architecture