Sepsis är ett allvarligt tillstånd som uppstår när bakterier går från vävnad till blodbanan. Positiva blododlingar odlas på agarplattor och bakterier analyseras med Matrix Assisted Laser Desorption Ionisation Time-of-flight Mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) där prov blandas med en matrix och sedan bestrålas med laser. Proteinerna i provet joniseras och rör sig mot en detektor, vilket ger ett m/z-spektrum som jämförs med referensspektrum i en databas och ett score-värde erhålls över hur väl analyten liknar referensen. Arbetets syfte var att undersöka möjligheten att direktidentifiera bakterier från blod med en viss preparation innan analys med MALDI-TOF MS och på så vis möjliggöra snabbare preliminära svar samt undersöka möjligheten att särskilja Staphylocoocus aureus och koagulasnegativa stafylokocker. Innan analys med MALDI-TOF MS centrifugerades blod från positiva blododlingar blod i flera steg med 5 % natriumkloridlösning (NaCl-metoden). Dessutom testades ett kommersiellt kit (Sepsityper, Bruker Daltonics). Med NaCl-metoden sågs korrekt identifiering hos 66 % av inokulerade proverna. Av blododlingar innehållande med S. aureus respektive koagulasnegativa stafylokocker identifierades 60 % respektive 43 % av bakterierna korrekt. Med Sepsiptyper erhöll 58 % av proverna godkänt score-värde. Slutsatsen blev att det är möjligt att identifiera bakterier direkt från blod efter viss preparation, men metoden bör utvecklas mer då det fanns en signifikant skillnad i score mellan NaCl-metoden och nuvarande metod. Det är dock möjligt att skilja mellan Staphylococcus aureus och koagulasnegativa stafylokocker. Fler studier är nödvändiga för att avgöra möjligheten att föra in någon av metoderna i rutindiagnostiken.

Es erfolgte die Re-Evaluierung der Empfindlichkeitstestung von Tuberkuloseerregern mit dem BacT/Alert-3D-System (bioMérieux) unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Materialwechsels der Kulturflasche von Glas auf Plastik. Dazu wurden insgesamt 61 vergleichende MHK-Bestimmungen mit diesen beiden Flaschentypen durchgeführt, wobei sechs Antituberkulotika (INH, RMP, EMB, SM, PTH und MOX) sowie zwölf Mykobakterienstämme (davon neun Mtb.) untersucht wurden. Dabei findet sich kein Unterschied in den MHK-Werten zwischen Glas- und Plastikflaschen. Die Plastikflaschen sind folglich ebenso wie die Glasflaschen zur Empfindlichkeitstestung von Tuberkuloseerregern mit dem BacT/Alert-3D-System geeignet. Bei der bisherigen Methode wurde bei der PZA-Testung auf die Verwendung der Kontrollflasche zur Festlegung der Untersuchungszeit verzichtet, weil der erniedrigte pH-Wert ein unverhältnismäßig langsames oder gar fehlendes Wachstum in dieser Flasche bewirkt. Durch Optimierung von pH-Wert (pH 5,9) und PZA-Testkonzentration (200 mg/l) wurde erreicht, dass die PZA-Testung nach der gleichen Methode wie auch bei den anderen Antituberkulotika praktiziert, durchgeführt werden kann. Im weiteren wurde untersucht, wie hoch der Anteil resistenter Mutanten in Mischkulturen sein muss, um erkannt zu werden. Dazu wurden dem sensiblen Stamm H37Rv jeweils isogene Mutanten mit Monoresistenzen gegen INH, RMP oder SM bzw. EMB- und PZA-resistente Stämme in verschiedenen Anteilen zugesetzt. Es zeigte sich, dass ein Anteil von 1% resistenter Stämme noch nicht sicher detektiert wird. / The purpose of this paper is to optimize and reevaluate the methods of susceptibility testing of M.tuberculosis with the BacT/Alert 3D System (bioMérieux). The key aspect was the comparison between culture bottles from glass between those made out of plastic material. Therefore 61 comparative MIC-tests were carried out, with six antituberculous drugs (INH, RMP; EMB, SM, PTH and MOX) and twelve mycobacterial strains (nine Mtb.) in order to compare the MIC in the two different bottle types. The MIC of 40 comparative tests between plastic culture bottles were identical to those in glass material. Only 18 test results deviated between the two bottle types. In each of those tests the discrepancy was only one degree of dilution, which is considered as not relevant. Resistant strains were found in three tests, with no difference between glass and plastic bottles. The deviant twelve results of Mtb. strains show a six times higher MIC-value in plastic bottles and a six times lower MIC in plastic bottles. In the case of the substance INH all four discrepant results had a higher MIC in the plastic bottle. Since these results were known by the Institut für Medizinische Mikrobiologie und Infektionsepidemiologie of the University Leipzig, it was consequently used with good results in the laboratory routine, as well as in external quality control (INSTAND-Ringversuche 2009 to 2011). The second topic of this study was to optimize the current method of susceptibility testing of Mtb. concerning pyrazinamide (PZA). In the current method the low pH of the dilution (5.5) with the resulting weak growth of the strains forced the laboratory assistant to abandon the 1% control bottle as endpoint of measurement. The new and optimized pH of 5.9 and a concentration of PZA of 200 mg/l allows the susceptibility testing of PZA with the same method as practiced for the other antituberculous drugs. Yet another focus of this study was the sensitivity of the BacT/Alert 3D System to detect heteroresistant clones in the mycobacterial broth. Resistant clones and fully susceptible Mtb. strain (H37Rv) were mixed in different percentages and susceptibility testing was performed. It could be shown, that a secure detection of resistant clones is not possible at a percentage 1% of resistant clones in the culture.

In the prevailing industrial revolution, most industries are on the path towards the digitalization journey. To incorporate several digital technologies in the organization data reliability and accuracy act as key enablers. To achieve the set goals, the connectivity of the machines is considered a prominent endeavour. Such connectivity can be achieved by implementing IIOT technology, the connected IIOT architecture enables interoperability, where the computerized machine can seamlessly communicate and transfer information among them. The purpose of this study was to examine the potential impacts of integrating IIOT into the organizational framework and further explore the advantages gained in terms of productivity and maintenance. This intended study concentrated on the welding department in VCE and prioritized specific robots for the research. In addition, to improve the connectivity and visualize the data a customizable dashboard was created to facilitate real-time tracking of the robots and an alert system was developed to notify the problems in real-time. To carry out the study this research was intended to use a particular IIOT software Thingworx from the PTC community. The research was carried out with extensive interviews and personal observation on the shop floor following a qualitative analysis methodology. Through the interviews, the prioritized entities were focused and based on the end user’s requirement the selected data tags were visualized. Furthermore, the findings from the research were analyzed and discussed on how IIOT technology could potentially benefit an organization is presented. / I den rådande industriella revolutionen är de flesta industrier på väg mot digitaliseringsresan. Att införliva flera digitala teknologier i organisationen fungerar datatillförlitlighet och noggrannhet som viktiga möjliggörare. För att uppnå de uppsatta målen anses maskinernas anslutningsmöjligheter vara en framträdande strävan. Sådan anslutning kan uppnås genom att implementera IIOT-teknik, vilket möjliggör interoperabilitet, där den datoriserade maskinen sömlöst kan kommunicera och överföra information mellan dem. Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka de potentiella effekterna av att integrera IIOT i det organisatoriska ramverket och ytterligare utforska fördelarna som uppnåddes i termer av produktivitet och underhåll. Denna tilltänkta studie koncentrerade sig på svetsavdelningen i VCE och prioriterade specifika robotar för forskningen. För att förbättra anslutningen och visualisera data skapades dessutom en anpassningsbar instrumentpanel för att underlätta realtidsspårning av robotarna och ett varningssystem utvecklades för att meddela problemen i realtid. För att genomföra studien var denna forskning avsedd att använda en speciell IIOT-programvara Thingworx från PTC-gemenskapen. Forskningen genomfördes med omfattande intervjuer och observation på verkstadsgolvet enligt en kvalitativ analysmetodik. Genom intervjuerna fokuserades de prioriterade enheterna och baserat på slutanvändarens krav visualiserades de valda datataggarna. Vidare har resultaten från forskningen analyserats och diskuterats om hur IIOT-teknik potentiellt skulle kunna gynna en organisation.

Cyanobacteria are a unique organism, a bacterium that develop photosynthesis, thus it contains chlorophyll, a pigment commonly associated to algae. For this reason, cyanobacteria are also known as blue-green algae. One of the secondary metabolites of cyanobacteria is cyanotoxin, a substance which is hepatoxic, neurotoxic, and dermatoxic. The frequency and intensity of cyanobacterial blooms have been of increasing concern in the last decades for drinking water supply. There is a need to improve monitoring of cyanobacteria content at source water for drinking water supply and its indicators and correlation with other chemical, physical and biological parameters. This study aims to identify the potential cyanobacterial bloom risk in Lake Mälaren by determining the influential chemical and physical parameters using Random Forest in classification mode. The classification was done using the WHO Alert Level Frameworks and study cases for lakes in Sweden. The data used to model was downloaded from the website of the Swedish University of Agricultural Science. It comprises 33 monitoring stations from 1964 to 2020, 21 chemical parameters, including cyanobacteria biovolume and chlorophyll content. Given the heterogeneity of data, the monitoring stations were grouped into Clusters. Using the data, statistical, correlation, time series, and principal component analysis were performed. Through these methods, spatial, distribution and temporal analysis were obtained. Afterwards, several models were determined using Random Forest. However, the mean values of cyanobacteria distributed over time indicated a medium risk, the maximum values suggested high risk in several areas of the Lake. Maximum concentrations were present at the west and northeast of the Lake, where the major inflows from the Watershed are discharged. As the water flows through the basin, the concentration of cyanobacteria reduces by half, which suggested that the large and deep bays act as sedimentation ponds. A very high correlation was found between the Cluster 5 and 6, east and middle northeast of the Lake, respectively. Finally, the contributing factors identified after modelling cyanobacteria as target factor were chlorophyll, month, water temperature, oxygen content, transparency, NO2NO3N, TN/TP, Ca, Mg and Cl. / Cyanobakterier är unika organismer, bakterier som utvecklar fotosyntes, så de innehåller klorofyll, ett pigment som vanligtvis förknippas med alger. Av denna anledning är cyanobakterier också kända som blågröna alger. En av de sekundära metaboliterna av cyanobakterier är cyanotoxin, ett ämne som är hepatoxiskt, neurotoxiskt och dermatoxiskt. Frekvensen och intensiteten av cyanobakterieblomningar har varit ett ökande problem under de senaste decennierna för dricksvattenförsörjningen. Många vattenreningsverk mäter inte innehållet av cyanobakterier i vatten; medan andra kemiska, fysikaliska och biologiska parametrar mäts. Denna studie syftar till att identifiera den potentiella risken för cyanobakteriell blomning i Mälaren genom att bestämma de mest inflytelserika kemiska och fysikaliska parametrarna med hjälp av metoden Random Forest i klassificeringsläge. Klassificeringen gjordes med hjälp av WHO Alert Level Frameworks och olika studier av sjöar i Sverige. Data som användes för att modellera laddades ner från Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitets webbplats. Den omfattar 33 övervakningsstationer från 1964 till 2020, med 21 kemiska parametrar, inklusive cyanobakteriers biovolym och klorofyllhalt. Med tanke på heterogeniteten i data grupperades övervakningsstationerna i kluster. Med hjälp av data utfördes statistisk analys, korrelation, tidsserier och huvudkomponentanalys. Genom dessa metoder erhölls rumslig, distribution och tidsanalys. Efteråt bestämdes flera modeller med hjälp av Random Forest. Medelvärdena för cyanobakterier fördelade över tiden indikerade en medelrisk, medan maximivärdena antydde något annat. Maximala koncentrationer fanns i väster och nordost om Mälaren, där de stora inflödena från vattendelaren släpps ut. När vattnet rinner genom bassängen minskar koncentrationen av cyanobakterier till hälften, vilket tyder på att de stora och djupa vikarna fungerar som sedimentationsdammar. En mycket hög korrelation hittades mellan kluster 5 och 6, öster respektive mellan nordost om sjön. Slutligen var de viktigaste faktorerna som identifierades efter modellering av cyanobakterier som målfaktor klorofyll, månad, vattentemperatur, syrehalt, transparens, NO2NO3N, TN/TP, Ca, Mg och Cl.

Collision avoidance systems (CASs) are being developed and fielded to reduce the number and severity of rear-end crashes. Kinematic algorithms within CASs evaluate sensor input and apply assumptions describing human-response timing and deceleration to determine when an alert should be presented. This dissertation presents an analytic assessment of dynamic function and performance CASs and associated driver performance for preventing automotive rear-end crashes. A method for using naturalistic data in the evaluation of CAS algorithms is described and applied to three algorithms. Time-series parametric data collected during 13 rear-end crashes and 70 near-crashes are input into models of collision avoidance algorithms to determine when the alerts would have occurred. Algorithm performance is measured by estimating how much of the driving population would be able to respond in the time available between when an alert would occur and when braking was needed. A sensitivity analysis was performed to consider the effect of alternative inputs into the assessment method. The algorithms were found to warn in sufficient time to permit 50–70% of the population to avoid collision in similar scenarios. However, the accuracy of this estimate was limited because the tested algorithms were found to alert too frequently to be feasible. The response of the assessment method was most sensitive to differences in assumed response-time distributions and assumed driver braking levels. Low-speed crashes were not addressed by two of the algorithms. Analysis of the events revealed that the necessary avoidance deceleration based on kinematics was generally less than 2 s in duration. At the time of driver response, the time remaining to avoid collision using a 0.5g average deceleration ranged from â 1.1 s to 2.1 s. In 10 of 13 crashes, no driver response deceleration was present. Mean deceleration for the 70 near-crashes was 0.37g and maximum was 0.72g. A set of the events was developed to measure driver response time. The mean driver response time was 0.7 s to begin braking and 1.1 s to reach maximum deceleration. Implications for collision countermeasures are considered, response-time results are compared to previous distributions and future work is discussed. / Ph. D.

Orientador: José Eduardo Zaine / Resumo: As corridas de detritos ou debris flows são os fenômenos de movimentação de massa mais impactantes no Brasil, com destaque para a região serrana do Estado de São Paulo. São movimentos de massa complexos, que se comportam na forma de fluxos altamente densos, responsáveis pelo grande aporte de material grosseiro no decorrer das drenagens, com grande poder de impacto e raio de destruição. Esta pesquisa buscou aprimorar o conhecimento acerca dos movimentos de massa do tipo corrida de detritos, por meio de uma classificação bibliográfica sistemática do fenômeno, assim como dos seus principais fatores indutores na região da Serra do Mar. A área escolhida para o estudo foi uma bacia hidrográfica no município de Cubatão/SP, devido ao grande histórico de eventos desse tipo, como os ocorridos em 1994, que foram responsáveis pela paralização das operações na Refinaria Presidente Bernardes, resultando em altos prejuízos financeiros. Em 2013, no Rio Pilões, outro evento de magnitude similar comprometeu a infraestrutura da Sabesp, resultando em uma morte. Tomando como recorte de estudo a bacia hidrográfica do Rio das Pedras, o objetivo principal foi desenvolver, por meio de metodologias de gestão e mapeamento uma proposta de gerenciamento preventivo à ocorrência de corridas de detrito em bacias hidrográficas na Serra do Mar. Assim, por meio da avaliação da suscetibilidade, aplicação de equações empíricas, mapeamento geológico-geomorfológico e definição de cenários de risco com precipitação... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The debris flows are the most striking mass movement phenomena in Brazil, with emphasis on the mountain region of the State of São Paulo. They are complex mass movements, which behave in the form of highly dense flows, responsible for the great contribution of coarse material during the drainage, with great impact power and radius of destruction. This research aimed to improve the knowledge about mass movements of the type of debris run, through a systematic bibliographic classification of the phenomenon, as well as its main inductive factors in the Serra do Mar region. The area chosen for the study was a basin in the municipality of Cubatão / SP, due to the great history of events of this type, such as those occurred in 1994, which were responsible for the paralysis of operations at the Presidente Bernardes Refinery, resulting in high financial losses. In 2013, at Rio Pilões, another event of similar magnitude compromised Sabesp's infrastructure, resulting in one death. Taking as a study study the Rio das Pedras river basin, the main objective was to develop, through management and mapping methodologies, a proposal of preventive management to the occurrence of detritus races in watersheds in the Serra do Mar. Thus, through the evaluation of susceptibility, the application of empirical equations, geological-geomorphological mapping and the definition of risk scenarios with critical precipitation, resulted in a better estimate of a risk scenario closer to the real one possible... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

Les changements anatomiques des patients au cours du traitement de radiothérapie peuvent engendrer des conséquences dosimétriques significatives sur les volumes cibles (VC) ou les organes à risques (OARs). Le processus de radiothérapie adaptative peut compenser ces variations, cependant son déploiement en clinique est ralentit par une charge de travail supplémentaire considérable pour les équipes médicales et aucun logiciel n'est disponible pour une utilisation en clinique. Nous avons développé un outil d'alerte dosimétrique in vivo simple permettant d'identifier rapidement les situations où une adaptation de traitement est requise pour un patient. L'évaluation dosimétrique des traitements délivrés a été réalisée sur l'imagerie embarquée 3D (CBCT) dont la précision des calculs de dose a dû être évaluée. L'outil d'alerte permet de s'affranchir d'une nouvelle délinéation de volumes d'intérêt et est basé sur des critères objectifs et quantifiables constitués par le dépassement des limites dosimétriques définies pour chacun des volumes considérés. La précision et la détectabilité de l'outil ont été validées puis il a été appliqué dans une étude rétrospective de 10 patients ORL afin de surveiller l'administration du traitement et d'identifier les patients pour lesquels une adaptation du traitement aurait pu être envisagée. Dans son implémentation clinique, le processus de radiothérapie adaptative requiert des algorithmes de recalage déformable capable de suivre les déformations locales d'un patient se produisant au cours du traitement, seulement leur utilisation n'est pas encore validée. Nous avons procédé à l'évaluation de la précision d'un algorithme de recalage déformable, de type Block Matching présentant l'avantage d'être adapté à l'imagerie multimodale CT/CBCT, en comparaison par rapport à un algorithme de recalage rigide. Une étude a été menée pour 10 patients ORL en se basant sur la comparaison de contours de volumes d'intérêt pour 76 CBCT. Les paramètres de similarité utilisés consistaient en l'Indice de Similarité Dice, la distance de Hausdorff robuste (en mm) et la différence de volume absolu (en cm3) / Changing anatomy during radiotherapy can lead to significant dosimetric consequences for organs at risk (OARs) and/or target volumes. Adaptive radiotherapy can compensate for these variations however its deployment for clinical work is hampered by the increased workload for the medical staff and there is still no commercialized software available for clinical use. We developed a simple in vivo dosimetric alert tool allowing rapid identification of patients who might benefit from an adaptive radiotherapy. Dosimetric evaluation of delivered treatment has been conducted onto 3D on board imaging (CBCT) whose dose calculation accuracy has been evaluated. The tool does not require a new volume of interest delineation. Tool alert is based on objectives and quantifiable criteria defined by the exceeding volumes of interest dose thresholds. Tool precision and detectability have been validated and applied in a retrospective study on 10 head and neck patients. The tool allows detecting patients where an adaptive treatment could have been considered. In its clinical implementation, adaptive radiotherapy process requires deformable matching algorithms to follow patient local's deformations occurring during treatment. Nevertheless, their use has not been validated. We conducted an evaluation of the Block Matching deformable algorithm, suitable for multimodality imaging (CT/CBCT), in comparison to rigid algorithm. A study has been conducted for 10 head and neck patients based on volume of interest contours comparison for 76 CBCT. Similarity parameters used consisted on Dice Similarity Index, Robust Hausdorff Distance (in mm) and the absolute volume difference (in cc)

Background: Prescribing errors are the most frequent type of error in the medication use process. High risk medicines (HRMs) are a sub-class of medications that if used erroneously have potentially devastating consequences which defined by Institute for Safe Medication Practices (ISMP) as the drugs that bear a heightened risk of causing significant patient harm when they are used in error. Therefore, prescribing errors with HRMs are of concern to healthcare professionals that are responsible for ensuring mitigating patient safety. This thesis examines to what extent prescribing errors with HRMs in hospital occur, the causes of prescribing errors with HRMs and the differences to non-HRMs and the prescribing errors with HRMs during the on-call period. Method: The research adopted a mixed methods approach to explore prescribing errors with HRMs in hospitals and three studies were undertaken. The first study was a systematic review of the literature to explore the prevalence and incidence of prescribing errors with HRMs in hospitals. The second study was a secondary analysis of 59 existing interviews with foundation year doctors to explore the causes of prescribing errors with HRMs and compare them to those for non-HRMs reported in the same interviews. The third study was a qualitative study of the challenges of prescribing HRMs safely during the on-call period. This final study involved six focus groups with foundation year doctors (total participants number was 42). Results: Overall, findings demonstrated that there is paucity of studies that explored the prevalence of prescribing errors with HRMs and this literature showed inconsistency in definitions of prescribing errors, HRMs lists, severity scales and study methods (Study One). This resulted in a very wide range of prevalence of prescribing errors with HRMs. In terms of causes of prescribing errors with HRMs (Study Two), prescribing HRMs was considered a complex task for participants, especially those requiring dosage calculations, errors in the legal prescription requirements for controlled medications occurred with HRMs only and the on-call period was a particularly challenging period to prescribe safely especially with HRMs. In Study Three, the reasons found for this include the nature of the on-call period as a fast-paced environment, the methods of communication such as the bleep system, lack of accessibility to patient information and lack of plan from the primary team. Conclusions: HRMs form part of general medications, meaning they share similar traits, but the potentially devastating consequences of HRMs and the complicated task posed by prescribing them makes errors in their prescription profound. Therefore, HRMs need closer attention and more concern from healthcare professionals, researchers and policymakers. Such attention could result in a significant reduction in adverse outcomes and improved patient safety.

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No. of bitstreams: 2 dissertacao_rodrigo_da_silva_pereira.pdf: 1723922 bytes, checksum: 18533319b08c17041a8e5681e41087ff (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Esta dissertação tem como propósito geral a análise do clima presente e o comportamento futuro dos eventos extremos de precipitação local de curta duração com potencial para causar alagamento nas principais cidades do Rio Grande do Sul abrangendo diferentes regiões do Estado: Porto Alegre, Caxias do Sul, Santa Maria e Pelotas. Baseado no histórico de alagamentos de cada cidade e nos dados diários de precipitação obtidos das estações meteorológicas do INMET (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia) obteve-se o limiar que identificou a taxa de precipitação que representa um evento com potencial para causar alagamento na cidade, sendo os eventos divididos em caso de atenção (percentil 25) ou de alerta (percentil 75) nas 48h precedentes à ocorrência do alagamento. Os resultados revelaram um crescimento sutil dos casos, tanto atenção quanto alerta, nos últimos 53 anos. A cidade de Porto Alegre foi a que apresentou os menores limiares para condição de alagamento, o que era esperado devido sua maior urbanização. Ao avaliar o comportamento sazonal dos casos constatou-se que no clima presente (1961-2013), o trimestre julho-agosto-setembro foi a época do ano mais propícia a casos de alagamentos. Posteriormente, os casos foram correlacionados com três índices climáticos que medem as anomalias de TSM (Temperatura da Superfície do Mar) do Atlântico Sul e do Pacífico, no intuito de avaliar se suas ocorrências estão associadas a fenômenos climáticos de grande escala. As correlações encontradas variaram de fracas a moderadas, mas com alto nível de confiança estatística para o IME (Índice Multivariado do ENOS). O uso de modelagem climática regional (modelo ETA-HadCM3) denotou que num cenário futuro (A1B de acordo com o Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas) para o período de 2021-2070 haverá no geral, um pequeno acréscimo no número de casos de atenção para todas as cidades, quando comparado aos valores observados no clima presente (1961-2013). Em Pelotas, haverá uma mudança na climatologia dos eventos com deslocamento da estação com maior número de casos do trimestre JAS (clima presente) para o OND (cenário futuro). / This work has as general purpose the analysis of present climate and future behavior of short duration extreme local rainfall events with potential for causing flooding in major cities in Rio Grande do Sul State covering different regions: Porto Alegre, Caxias do Sul, Santa Maria and Pelotas. Based on history of floods of each city and on the rainfall data obtained from meteorological stations of INMET (National Institute of Meteorology), the thresholds that have identified which precipitation rate is an event with the potential to cause flooding in the city were obtained, being such events divided in case of attention (25th percentile) or case of alert (75th percentile) in 48 hours before the occurrence of flooding. The results showed a subtle increase of cases, both as alert and attention in the last 53 years. The city of Porto Alegre was presented the least thresholds for flooding condition, which was expected due to its increased urbanization. In assessing the seasonal behavior of the cases it was found that in this climate, the July-August-September was the time of year most facilitates cases of flooding. Later, cases were correlated with three climate indices that measure the SST (Sea Surface Temperature) anomalies in order to assess whether their occurrences are associate to large-scale climatic phenomena. It was found weak to moderate correlations, but with a high level of statistical confidence for the EMI (ENSO Multivariate Index). The use of regional climate model (ETA-HadCM3) denotes that in a future scenario (A1B following International Panel on Climate Change) for the period 2021-2070 will be in general an increase number of cases of attention for all cities, when compared to those observed in the present climate (1961-2013). In Pelotas there will be a climatological change due to a displacement of the season with more cases: from JAS quarter (present) to OND quarter (future scenario).

Excerpt: Boaz Ganor’s Global Alert: The Rationality of Modern Islamist Terrorism and the Challenge to the Liberal Democratic Order provides in its eleven brief chapters an analysis of and prescription for liberal democratic vulnerabilities to present-day Islamist-inspired terrorism.