A system of systems (SoS) framework is proposed for policy design that takes into account the value systems of multiple participants, harnesses the complexity of strategic interactions among participants, and confronts the risks and uncertainties present in participants’ decision making. SoS thinking provides an integrative and adaptive mindset, which is needed to tackle policy challenges characterized by conflict, complexity, and uncertainty. With the aim of putting SoS thinking into practice, operational methods and tools are presented herein. Specifically, SoS engineering methodologies to create value system models, agent-based models of competitive and cooperative behaviour under conflict, and risk management models are developed and integrated into the framework. The proposed structure, methods and tools can be utilized to organize policy design discourse. Communication among participants involved in the policy discussion is structured around SoS models, which are used to integrate multiple perspectives of a system and to test the effectiveness of policies in achieving desirable outcomes under varying conditions. In order to demonstrate the proposed methods and tools that have been developed to enliven policy design discourse, a theoretical common-pool resources dilemma is utilized. The generic application illustrates the methodology of constructing ordinal preferences from values. Also, it is used to validate the agent-based modeling and simulation platform as a tool to investigate strategic interactions among participants and harness the potential to influence and enable participants to achieve desirable outcomes. A real-world common pool resources dilemma in the provisioning and security considerations of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore is examined and employed as a case study for applying strategic conflict models in risk management. Overall, this thesis advances the theory and application of SoS engineering and focuses on understanding value systems, handling complexity in terms of conflict dynamics, and finally, enhancing risk management.

This research establishes a physics-based life determination model for the second generation single crystal superalloy PWA 1484 experiencing out-of-phase thermomechanical fatigue (TMF). The life model was developed as a result of a combination of critical mechanical tests, dominant damage characterization and utilization of well-established literature. The resulting life model improves life prediction over currently employed methods and provides for extrapolation into yet unutilized operating regimes. Particularly, the proposed deformation model accounts for the materials' coupled fatigue-environment-microstructure response to TMF loading. Because the proposed model is be based upon the underlying deformation physics, the model is robust enough to be easily modified for other single crystal superalloys having similar microstructure. Future use of this model for turbine life estimation calculations would be based upon the actual deformation experienced by the turbine blade, thereby enabling turbine maintenance scheduling based upon on a "retirement for a cause" life management scheme rather than the currently employed "safe-life" calculations. This advancement has the ability to greatly reduce maintenance costs to the turbine end-user since turbine blades would be removed from service for practical and justifiable reasons. Additionally this work will enable a rethinking of the warranty period, thereby decreasing warranty related replacements. Finally, this research provides a more thorough understanding of the deformation mechanisms present in loading situations that combine fatigue-environment-microstructure effects.

A system of systems (SoS) framework is proposed for policy design that takes into account the value systems of multiple participants, harnesses the complexity of strategic interactions among participants, and confronts the risks and uncertainties present in participants’ decision making. SoS thinking provides an integrative and adaptive mindset, which is needed to tackle policy challenges characterized by conflict, complexity, and uncertainty. With the aim of putting SoS thinking into practice, operational methods and tools are presented herein. Specifically, SoS engineering methodologies to create value system models, agent-based models of competitive and cooperative behaviour under conflict, and risk management models are developed and integrated into the framework. The proposed structure, methods and tools can be utilized to organize policy design discourse. Communication among participants involved in the policy discussion is structured around SoS models, which are used to integrate multiple perspectives of a system and to test the effectiveness of policies in achieving desirable outcomes under varying conditions. In order to demonstrate the proposed methods and tools that have been developed to enliven policy design discourse, a theoretical common-pool resources dilemma is utilized. The generic application illustrates the methodology of constructing ordinal preferences from values. Also, it is used to validate the agent-based modeling and simulation platform as a tool to investigate strategic interactions among participants and harness the potential to influence and enable participants to achieve desirable outcomes. A real-world common pool resources dilemma in the provisioning and security considerations of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore is examined and employed as a case study for applying strategic conflict models in risk management. Overall, this thesis advances the theory and application of SoS engineering and focuses on understanding value systems, handling complexity in terms of conflict dynamics, and finally, enhancing risk management.

L’objectif de notre recherche est l’exploration et l’étude de la question de l’instrumentation informatique des projets de reconstitution archéologiques en architecture monumentale dans le but de proposer de nouveaux moyens. La recherche a pour point de départ une question, à savoir : « Comment, et avec quels moyens informatiques, les projets de reconstitution architecturale pourraient-ils être menés en archéologie? ». Cette question a nécessité, en premier lieu, une étude des différentes approches de restitution qui ont été mises à contribution pour des projets de reconstitution archéologiques, et ceci, à ses différentes phases. Il s’agit de comprendre l’évolution des différentes méthodologies d’approche (épistémologiquement) que les acteurs de ce domaine ont adoptées afin de mettre à contribution les technologies d’information et de communication (TIC) dans le domaine du patrimoine bâti. Cette étude nous a permis de dégager deux principales avenues: une première qui vise exclusivement la « représentation » des résultats des projets et une seconde qui vise la modélisation de ce processus dans le but d’assister l’archéologue dans les différentes phases du projet. Nous démontrons que c’est la deuxième approche qui permet la combinaison et met à la disposition des archéologues une meilleure exploitation des possibilités que l’outil informatique peut et pourra présenter. Cette partie permet de démontrer la nature systémique et complexe de la mise à contribution des TICs dans le domaine de la restitution archéologique. La multitude des acteurs, des conditions techniques, culturelles et autres, des moyens utilisés ainsi que la variété des objectifs envisagés dans les projets de reconstitution archéologiques poussent à explorer une nouvelle approche qui tient compte de cette complexité. Pour atteindre notre objectif de recherche, la poursuite de l’étude de la nature de la démarche archéologique s’impose. Il s’agit de comprendre les liens et les interrelations qui s’établissent entre les différentes unités techniques et intellectuelles en jeu ainsi que les différents modes de réflexions présents dans les projets de reconstitution archéologique du patrimoine bâti. Cette étude met en évidence le rapport direct entre le caractère subjectif de la démarche avec la grande variabilité des approches et des raisonnements mis en œuvre. La recherche est alors exploratoire et propositionnelle pour confronter notamment le caractère systémique et complexe de l’expérience concrète et à travers les publications savantes, les éléments de la réalité connaissable. L’étude des raisonnements archéologiques à travers les publications savantes nous permet de proposer une première typologie de raisonnements étudiés. Chacune de ces typologies reflète une méthodologie d’approche basée sur une organisation d’actions qui peut être consignée dans un ensemble de modules de raisonnements. Cette recherche fait ressortir, des phénomènes et des processus observés, un modèle qui représente les interrelations et les interactions ainsi que les produits spécifiques de ces liaisons complexes. Ce modèle témoigne d’un processus récursif, par essais et erreurs, au cours duquel l’acteur « expérimente » successivement, en fonction des objectifs de l’entreprise et à travers des modules de raisonnements choisis, plusieurs réponses aux questions qui se posent à lui, au titre de la définition du corpus, de la description, de la structuration, de l’interprétation et de la validation des résultats, jusqu’à ce que cette dernière lui paraisse satisfaire aux objectifs de départ. Le modèle établi est validé à travers l’étude de cas du VIIème pylône du temple de Karnak en Égypte. Les résultats obtenus montrent que les modules de raisonnements représentent une solution intéressante pour assister les archéologues dans les projets de reconstitution archéologiques. Ces modules offrent une multiplicité de combinaisons des actions et avantagent ainsi une diversité d’approches et de raisonnements pouvant être mis à contribution pour ces projets tout en maintenant la nature évolutive du système global. / The goal of our research is to explore and study the use of computerized tools in archaeological reconstruction projects of monumental architecture in order to propose new ways in which such technology can be used. The first question we ask is: "How and with which computerized tools can architectural reconstruction projects be conducted in archaeology? In our quest to answer this question, we begin with a study of the different restitution approaches used in various phases of archaeological reconstruction projects. This involves understanding how the different methods of approach have evolved (epistemologically), how those involved in such projects have put information and communication technologies to use in the field of built heritage. This study has identified two main avenues: one whose sole aim is the "representation" of project results and another whose aim is to model this process in order to assist the archaeologist through various phases of a project. We have demonstrated that it is the second approach which combines and offers archaeologists a better utilization of the possibilities offered by computer assisted tools. This allowed us to demonstrate the complex and systemic nature of ICT’s in the field of archaeological reconstruction. The multiple actors, conditions, means and goals considered in archaeological reconstruction projects have led us to explore a new approach that reflects this complexity. In order to achieve the goal of our research, it was necessary to further study the nature of the archaeological process. This involved understanding the links and interrelations between the various components that define the archaeological approach and the various thought processes involved in heritage building archaeological reconstruction projects. This study showed a direct relationship between the subjective nature of the process and the diversity of approaches and thought processes which can be implemented. This exploratory and propositional research reinforces the systemic and complex nature of our approach and prompts us to explore, in practice and through published literature, the elements of known reality. The study of archaeological reasoning through academic publications has allowed us to propose an initial typology of arguments studied. Each of these typologies reflects a methodological approach based on organized actions that can be recorded in a set of reasoning modules. This research has allowed us to highlight phenomena and observed processes, leading to a model representing interrelationships and interactions as well as the specific results of these complex interconnections. This pattern reflects a cyclical process of trial and error, in which the actors consecutively 'experience' (according to the project’s goals and through reasoning modules), several answers to the questions exposed to him under the corpus definition, description, structure, interpretation and validation of the results until the latter would appear to meet the original targets. The model developed was validated through a case study of the seventh pylon of the Karnak temple in Egypt. The results show that the reasoning modules offer an interesting solution assisting archaeologists in archaeological reconstruction projects. The multiple action combinations offered by these modules are an advantage to many approaches and thought processes which could be useful to such projects while maintaining the progressive nature of the overall system.

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Research Doctorate - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / The original contribution of this thesis is to demonstrate the use of a generalised and parsimonious approach to building individual-based computer models of ecological systems with the objective of advancing our mechanistic understanding of these systems. Two models are presented; the first, a model of predator-prey interaction, produces the expected non-linear dynamics and illustrates the importance of the timing of variable updating and individual variation for the persistence of the populations. This model is applied to two near-exclusive, cycling predator-prey systems, those of the Canadian lynx and snowshoe hare and the Fennoscandian mustelid predators and their microtine prey. The reproduction of the patterns found in the empirical data of these systems by the model suggests that the underlying mechanism of these predator-prey systems may be more simple than is suggested by other more complex models reported in the literature. The second model describes a system similar to that of a grazing herbivore in a two-dimensional space. The emergence of complex behaviour resulting from the use of space in the model, including metapopulation-like local extinction and re-population and the effects of corridors and edge qualities on the species are demonstrated. The inclusion of a graphical display of the two-dimensional space in the computer interface to the model reveals important details of system behaviour not evident in the population means, including herding behaviour. The latter is dependent on herbivore mobility and the re-growth of resources in an heterogeneous environment, and emerges in the absence of social behaviour. The problem of detecting herding behaviour automatically is addressed, including the development of qualitative and quantitative definitions of herding in the model.

De nombreux domaines comme le jeu vidéo, l’architecture, l’ingénierie ou l’archéologie font désormais appel à la modélisation géométrique. Les objets à représenter sont de natures diverses, et leurs opérations de manipulation sont spécifiques. Ainsi, les modeleurs sont nombreux car tous spécialisés à leur domaine d’application. Or ils sont à la fois chers à développer, souvent peu robustes, et difficilement extensibles. Nous avons proposé dans la thèse l’approche alternative suivante :– fournir un langage dédié à la modélisation qui permet de définir les opérations quelque soit le domaine d’application ; dans ce langage, les objets sont représentés avec le modèle topologique des cartes généralisées, dont nous avons étendu la définition aux plongements ; les opérations sont elles définies par des règles de transformation de graphes, issues de la théorie des catégorie ;– garantir les opérations définies dans le langage à l’aide de conditions de cohérence ; une opération dont la définition vérifie ces conditions ne produit pas d’anomalie ;– développer un noyau de modeleur générique qui interprète ce langage ; les opérations définies sont directement appliquées dans le modeleur, sans implantation dans un langage de programmation ; l’outil assure également la vérification automatique des conditions du langage pour prévenir un utilisateur lorsqu’il propose une opération incohérente.Le langage et le modeleur développés se sont révélés performants à la fois en termes de temps de développement et en termes de temps machine. L’implantation d’une nouvelle opération par une règle ne prend que quelques minutes à l’aide des conditions du langage, au contraire de l’approche classi / Geometric modeling is now involved in many fields such as: video games, architecture, engineering and archaeology. The represented objects are very different from one field to another, and so are their modeling operations. Furthermore, many specific types of modeling software are designed for high programing costs, but with a relatively low rate of effectiveness.The following is an alternative approach:– we have conceived a dedicated language for geometric modeling that will allow us to define any operation of any field; objects in this language are defined with the topological model of generalized maps, this definition has been extended to the embedding informations; here the operations are defined as graph transformation rules which originate from the category theory;– we have ensured operation definitions with consistency conditions; these operations that satisfy those conditions do not generate anomalies; – we have designed generic modeling software to serve as an interpreter of this language; the operation definitions are directly applied without the need for more programing; the software also automatically checks the language conditions and warns the user if he designs a non-consistent operation.The provided language and software prove to be efficient, and all for a low programing cost. Designing a new operation takes only minutes thanks to the language conditions, as opposed to hours of programming and debugging with the past approach.

Higher Education Institutions are spaces for planning strategies deployment and sustainable best practices implementation in teaching, research, outreach, management and operations, behaving as a role model to society. The innovation of this work relies on deploying tools to aid waste management decision-making, considering that higher education institutions community are potential sustainability agent promoters, and that strategies to integrate HEIs educational dimension with engagement, operational, and policy & management dimensions, is this works innovation from other frameworks already deployed. It is important to understand that HEIs, different than other institutions, have the obligation to build knowledge and to train its community to serve society. HEIs responsibility to prepare new leaders, given the opportunity for raising awareness and sustainable culture by engaging its community in daily activities, by preparing them to see daily challenges and solve it through more sustainable approaches. This works tools were deployed using social sciences, engineering, and computational modeling interfaces. This thesis products are a literature review regard solid waste management at Higher Education Institutions; The description of the solid waste management at University of São Paulo – São Carlos Campus, a study describing strengthening and weakening factors for the University of São Paulo Recicla recycle program; A framework for solid waste management at Higher Education Institutions; The use of survey as a tool to assess culture of sustainability at the University of São Paulo – São Carlos Campus; The Waste Management Index for Brazilian Higher Education Institutions; and the use of Agent-Based Modeling methodology as a decision-making tool for recycling initiatives. The main conclusions are that there is a gap on tools to help decision-making regard solid waste management and that consider higher education institutions specificities, this lead to creation of tools to address these necessities. By working to deploy tools with social sciences and engineering interfaces, researchers can find an innovative, rich, and barely exploited field. / Instituições de ensino superior são espaços para implantação de estratégias de planejamento e melhores práticas sustentáveis no ensino, pesquisa, extensão, gerenciamento e operações, comportando-se como modelo para a sociedade. A inovação deste trabalho baseia-se na elaboração e implantação de ferramentas para auxiliar na tomada de decisão referente a gerenciamento de resíduos, considerando que a comunidade de instituições de ensino superior são potenciais agentes promotores de sustentabilidade. Além disso, estratégias para integrar a dimensão educacional das IES com o engajamento, as dimensões operacional e de políticas e gestão é o que diferencia o modelo aqui proposto de outros modelos existentes. É importante entender que as IES, diferentes das outras instituições, têm a obrigação de construir conhecimento e treinar sua comunidade para servir a sociedade. A responsabilidade da IES em preparar novos líderes, tem a oportunidade de aumentar a conscientização e a cultura sustentável, envolvendo sua comunidade nas atividades diárias, preparando-as para ver desafios diários e resolvê-lo através de abordagens mais sustentáveis. As ferramentas foram elaboradas usando interfaces de ciências sociais, engenharia e modelagem computacional. Os produtos desta tese são: A revisão da literatura sobre o gerenciamento de resíduos sólidos nas Instituições de Ensino Superior; A descrição da gestão de resíduos sólidos no campus da Universidade de São Paulo - São Carlos, um estudo que descreve os fatores de fortalecimento e fragilização do programa de reciclagem de Recicla da Universidade de São Paulo; Um modelo para a gestão de resíduos sólidos nas Instituições de Ensino Superior; O uso da questionários como ferramenta para avaliar a cultura de sustentabilidade na Universidade de São Paulo - Campus de São Carlos; O Índice de Gestão de Resíduos Sólidos para Instituições de Ensino Superior Brasileiras; e O uso da metodologia de modelagem baseada em agentes como uma ferramenta de tomada de decisão para iniciativas de reciclagem. As principais conclusões são que há uma lacuna em ferramentas para ajudar a tomada de decisão em relação ao gerenciamento de resíduos sólidos e que consideram as especificidades das instituições de ensino superior, o que leva à criação de ferramentas para atender a essas necessidades. Trabalhando para implantar ferramentas com interface entre as ciências sociais, engenharia, e modelagem computacional os pesquisadores puderam trabalhar em um campo inovador, rico e pouco explorado.

The study of how social organizations work, change and develop is central to sociology and to our understanding of the social world and its transformations. At the same time, the underlying principles of organizational dynamics are extremely difficult to investigate. This is partly due to the difficulties of tracking organizations, individuals and their interactions over relatively long periods of time. But it is also due to limitations in the kinds of quantitative methods used to tackle these questions, which are for the most part based on regression analysis. This thesis seeks to improve our understanding of social organizing by using models to explore and describe the logics of the structures and mechanisms underlying organizational change. Particular emphasis is given to the modeling process, the use of new concepts and analogies, and the application of interdisciplinary methods to get new insights into classical sociological questions. The thesis consists of an introductory part and five studies (I-V). Using Swedish longitudinal data on employment in the Stockholm Region, the studies tackle different dimensions of organizational dynamics, from organizational structures and growth processes to labor mobility and employment trajectories. The introductory chapters contextualize the studies by providing an overview of theories, concepts and quantitative methods that are relevant for the modeling of organizational dynamics.  The five studies look into various aspects of organizational dynamics with the help of complementary data representations and non-traditional quantitative methods. Study I analyzes organizational growth statistics for different sectors and industries. The typically observed heavy-tailed statistical patterns for the size and growth rate distributions are broken down into a superposition of interorganizational movements. Study II models interorganizational movements as a labor flow network. Organizations tend to be more tightly linked if they belong to the same ownership sector. Additionally, public organizations have a more stable connection structure. Study III uses a similarity-based method called homogeneity analysis to map out the social space of large organizations in the Stockholm Region. A social distance is then derived within this space, and we find that the interorganizational movements analyzed in Studies I and II take place more often between organizations that are closer in social space and in the same network community. Study IV presents an approach to organizational dynamics based on sequences of employment states. Evidence for a positive feedback mechanism is found for large and highly sequence-diverse public organizations. Finally, Study V features an agent-based model where we simulate a social influence mechanism for organizational membership dynamics. We introduce a parameter analogous to a physical temperature to model contextual influence, and the familiar growth distributions are recovered as an intermediate case between extreme parameter values. The thesis as a whole provides suggestions for a more process-oriented modeling approach to social organizing that gives a more prominent role to the logics of organizational change. Finally, the series of methodological tools discussed can be useful for the analysis of many other social processes and more broadly for the development of quantitative sociological methods. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Manuscript. Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.</p><p> </p>

La faible représentation de la biodiversité dans les modèles de végétation a longtemps été un obstacle à la compréhension et à la projection des processus écosystémiques. La forte biodiversité des forêts tropicales, leur rôle clé dans les cycles biogéochimiques globaux, ainsi que leur vulnérabilité aux perturbations anthropiques directes et indirectes, amplifient les difficultés et enjeux de ces questions de recherche. En particulier, l'augmentation prédite de la fréquence et de l'intensité des sécheresses pourrait impacter la structure et composition floristique de ces forêts, comme dors et déjà observé au cours d'expériences naturelles et artificielles. Cette thèse explore ces questions de recherche à travers deux approches complémentaires, de modélisation et de mesures écophysiologiques. Dans le premier chapitre, je décris un simulateur de croissance forestière individu-centré et spatialement-explicite, TROLL, qui intègre les progrès récents en physiologie des plantes. Les processus sont paramétrés à l'aide de traits fonctionnels espèce-spécifiques, pour une forêt tropicale amazonienne. Une régénération forestière est simulée, et validée par des observations faites en Guyane française. La sensibilité du modèle à plusieurs paramètres globaux clés est évaluée. Enfin, l'influence de la variation de la richesse et composition spécifiques sur les propriétés écosystémiques est explorée. La réponse des forêts tropicales à la sécheresse est mal connue, empêchant la représentation pertinente des processus en jeu dans les modèles de végétation. Les chapitres 2 à 5 de cette thèse ont ainsi pour but de documenter la tolérance à la sécheresse et sa diversité dans une forêt amazonienne. Une méthode récente et rapide de détermination d'un trait de tolérance des feuilles à la sécheresse, le potentiel hydrique des feuilles au point de perte de turgescence (ptlp), est validée et utilisée, permettant de quantifier pour la première fois un tel trait de tolérance à la sécheresse dans une forêt amazonienne à l'échelle de la communauté. Ce jeu de données permet l'exploration des déterminants de la tolérance à la sécheresse des feuilles, à travers les espèces d'arbres, les tailles des individus, les stades de succession, les expositions à la lumière, ainsi que les lianes. La variabilité de ptlp observée suggère une large diversité de réponses à la sécheresse au sein des communautés de plantes amazoniennes. Ceci est confirmé par le suivi direct du flux de sève au cours d'une saison sèche sur divers arbres de canopée. Enfin, je discute les implications de ces résultats pour le développement des futurs modèles de végétation. / A great part of uncertainties in our current understanding and projections of the carbon cycle lies in the vegetation compartment. The problem of biodiversity representation in vegetation models has long been an impediment to a detailed understanding of ecosystem processes. The high biodiversity of tropical forests, their disproportionate role in global biogeochemical cycles, together with their vulnerability to direct and indirect anthropogenic perturbations, amplify the relevance of this research challenge. In particular, the predicted increase in drought intensity and frequency in the tropics may impact forest structure and composition, as already observed in natural and artificial experiments. This thesis explores how new advances in modelling and ecophysiology should help improve our understanding of these processes in the future. In the first chapter, I describe an individual-based and spatially-explicit forest growth simulator, TROLL, that integrates recent advances in plant physiology. Processes are linked to species-specific functional traits parameterized for an Amazonian tropical rainforest. This model is used to simulate a forest regeneration, which is validated against observations in French Guiana. Model sensitivity is assessed for a number of key global parameters. Finally, we test the influence of varying the species richness and composition on ecosystem properties. Tropical forest response to drought is not well understood, and this hampers attempts to model these processes. In chapters 2 to 5 I aimed at documenting drought-tolerance and its diversity in an Amazonian forest. A rapid method of determination of a leaf drought tolerance trait, the leaf water potential at turgor loss point (ptlp), was validated and applied to a range of plant species. We established the first community-wide assessment of drought tolerance in an Amazonian forest. These results inform on the drivers and determinants of leaf drought tolerance, across tree species and lianas, tree size, successional stages, light exposition, and seasons. Variability in ptlp among species indicates the potential for a range of species responses to drought within Amazonian forest communities. This is further confirmed by direct monitoring of whole-plant water use on diverse canopy trees during a marked dry season. Finally, I discuss the implications of these results to increase the dialogue between the vegetation modeling community and ecology, to enhance model's predictive ability, and to inform policy choices.