The master's thesis analyses the contemporary corporate governance standards and their legal framework. The paper describes the development of different corporate governance principles and the key legal pieces that regulate the corporate governance area (eg. Sarbanes-Oxley, Basel II, EC regulation). The core of the paper focuses on corporate governance failures that led to the current financial crisis, analyses their link to the corporate governance principles and describes the trends for development in the corporate governance regulation.

The aim of this thesis was to investigate the use of effect sizes to report the results of statistical credit rating models in a more practical way. Rating systems in the form of statistical probability models like logistic regression models are used to forecast the behaviour of clients and guide business in rating clients as “high” or “low” risk borrowers. Therefore, model results were reported in terms of statistical significance as well as business language (practical significance), which business experts can understand and interpret. In this thesis, statistical results were expressed as effect sizes like Cohen‟s d that puts the results into standardised and measurable units, which can be reported practically. These effect sizes indicated strength of correlations between variables, contribution of variables to the odds of defaulting, the overall goodness-of-fit of the models and the models‟ discriminating ability between high and low risk customers. / Statistics / M. Sc. (Statistics)

鑒於金融機構跨業經營乃係現況發展趨勢，而風險管理已成為金融機構業務管理之首務，本研究將探討國際金融機構風險管理的新規範－新版巴賽爾資本協定（Basel II），並蒐集民國八十三年六月至民國九十二年三月我國上市公司公開發行之財務資訊，分別以商業銀行、證券公司、人壽保險公司、產物保險公司及票券公司為代表，模擬為金融控股公司下之各個子公司，將結合營運性、風險性、及法令為考量之資本配置模型；進一步探討金融控股公司之風險管理與資本配置。 歸納模擬結果如下： 以營運性為考量並配合法令要求之資本配置，此配置模型係在設定盈餘目標下，追求風險極小值，或設定風險容忍水準，以追求盈餘之極大值。經過目標值的變動下，此最適化模型可得一效率前緣曲線。由此效率前緣圖可知，在盈餘維持在平均盈餘水準下，此模型可使風險值由原來的8,860佰萬元降至7,045佰萬元，其降幅為20%，RAROC由原來的0.77升至0.97，升幅為25%；若固定風險值在原來未分配前的平均水準，則盈餘由先前的7,681佰萬元提升至8,821佰萬元，其提升幅度為14%，RAROC由原來的0.77提升至0.90，提升幅度為16%，亦相當可觀。若將資本維持在歷史平均水準，則可使其盈餘達到7,305佰萬元，而風險值為6,446佰萬元，RAROC為1.00，升幅為29%。據此推論，依此配置模型分配結果，將可改善整體金融控股公司之經營績效。 綜合營運性、風險性並考量法令要求之資本分配模型，納入了風險限制條件，主要係考量高風險之業務，須有高資本以因應其非預期性損失，但同時為兼顧經營績效，必須在營運性與風險性間求得平衡點；實證結果發現，受到風險性限制條件的影響，使得此條效率前緣曲線均落在以營運性為考量資本配置模型之下方，這代表的是在此模型下，無法達到較高之盈餘，原因來自於高盈餘伴隨著高風險，但高風險在此配置模型中是不允許的。惟此模型依然有提升整體經營績效的功能。例如，將盈餘目標設為原來的7,681佰萬元，則風險值降為7,601佰萬元，降幅約14%，RAROC也提升至0.90，升幅為16%；若資本維持在平均水準177,185佰萬元，則盈餘可達到5,802佰萬元，風險值則為4,528佰萬元，RAROC為1.09，較原先高出41%。 / As cross business managing is the modern development trend and risk management has been the first task for the financial institutions, this study attempts to analyze the new standard of the international financial institutions’ risk management – new Basel II. The data concerning business operations, risks, regulations from June 1992 to March 2003 are collected for each group of commercial banks, security houses, life insurance companies, non-life insurance companies, bill finance companies to build a capital allocation model. The financial holding companies’ risk management and capital allocation is further discussed. The results of this study are summarized as follows: The capital allocation model considers business operations and regulations. This allocation model sets up profit target, seeks minimum risk or sets up level of risk tolerance to seek maximum profit. After the variable target, the suitable model can get a efficient frontier curve. From this curve we find out that the profit maintains under the average profit level. The model can make Value-at-Risk reduce from 8,860 million to 7,045 million, down 20%, RAROC rise from 0.77 to 0.97, up 25%; if the fixed Value-at-Risk is before distributing, the profit will rise from 7,681 mission to 8,821 million, up 14%, RAROC will rise from 0.77 to 0.90, up 16%, still outstanding. If the capital remains at historical average level, then the profit can reach 7,305 million, and the Value-at-Risk is 6,446 million, RAROC is 1.00, up 29%. According to the inference, the distributing result of the allocation model can improve the operation performance of the financial holding company. The capital allocation model synthesize operation, risk and consider legal requirement, bring into the restriction of risk is to consider high risky business should have high capital to deal with unexpected loss, but also to consider operation performance, need to seek balance between operation and risk; From the result of this study finds that under risk restriction, the efficient frontier curve is within the capital allocation model which considers operation, this means under the model, higher profit is hard to achieve, the reason is high profit accompanies high risk, and high risk is prohibited from the model. But this model still has the function to approve whole operation performance. For example, if the profit target is 7,681 million as original, the Value-at-Risk will reduce to 7,601 million, down 14%, RAROC will rise to 0.90, up 16%; if the capital remains at the average level’s 177,185 million, the profit can reach 5,802 million, the Value-at-Risk is 4,528 million and RAROC is 1.09, up 41%.

2008年，美國華爾街危機影響全球金融市場，即使美國擬出許多救市計畫，全球股市依舊暴跌。在此危機衝擊下，各大金融機構不但利潤下滑，且資產減記和信貸損失也愈來愈嚴重。造成此一現象的主因即是次級房貸的影響，次級房貸主要是針對收入低、信用不佳卻需要貸款購屋的民眾，這類客戶通常借貸不易，倘若銀行內部沒有完善的評等機制那放款則需承受較大的違約風險。為因應此趨勢，本研究以台灣未上市中小企業為實例，資料的觀察期間為2003至2005年，透過資料採礦流程，建構企業違約風險模型及其信用評等系統。 本研究分別利用羅吉斯迴歸、類神經網路、和分類迴歸樹三種方法建立模型並加以評估比較其預測能力。發現羅吉斯迴歸模型對於違約戶的預測能力及有效性皆優於其他兩者，並選定為本研究之最終模型，並對選定之模型作評估及驗證，發現模型的預測能力表現尚屬穩定，確實能夠在銀行授信流程實務中加以應用。 / In 2008, the financial crisis on Wall Street had severe impacted the global economy. Although the US government has drawn up regulatory policies in an attempt to save the stock market, the value of global stock market has shrunk drastically. As such, the profits of many financial institutes’ have not only plunged, their value of assets have decreased while loss related to mortgage became more severe. The main cause behind this global phenomenon can be attributed to the effect of subprime mortgages. Subprime mortgages are mainly aimed at consumers who have low income and poor credit history but wish to purchase homes through the means of mortgage. These consumers usually find it difficult to obtain mortgage loans. If banks do not have a well structured evaluation system, they would have to bear more risks in the case of a default. To better understand this trend, this research chooses middle and small private enterprises as its samples. The period of observation is 2003 to 2005. Using the data mining process, this research builds a model that shows the risk associated with contract failure and credit score system. The research builds a model based on logistic regression, Neural Network, and cart to compare and contrast each of the three model’s ability to predict. The result shows that logistic regression is better at predicting defaults and is more effective than the other two models. The research, therefore, concludes logistic regression model as the research’s final model to study and evaluate. In process, the research result demonstrates that the logistic regression model makes more precise prediction and its prediction is fairly stable. Logistic regression model is capable for banks to employ in performing credit check.

Diploma thesis "Optimization capital charges in VaR model utilizing dynamic risk management strategies" deals with banks opportunity to reduce Basel capital requirements via estimation volatility in VaR model for separate time periods differently. It analyses current crisis, its sources, process, but especially its influence of new worldwide accepted regulatory standards, which require nearly doubled regulatory capital. Regarding high impact to industry return on equity the thesis discusses the possibility of dynamic capital optimization based on alternating conservative and aggressive risk management strategies. Empirical part of thesis tests outcomes of volatility modeling based on historical quotes of six European indexes since 2003, which are classified by volatility levels and broken down into several time periods. We suggest approach which enables financial institutions to reduce the impact of new Basel rules on their ROE, while they meet all VaR model conditions defined by the regulator. However, there are also negative consequences of this lowering level of capital represented by increasing failure rates of models. Although banks are able by suggested approach to achieve capital reduction by 20 percent, they are in the same time forced to use one of a very aggressive strategies. Dynamic...

The thesis focuses on internal management and control systems in connection with operational risk management (ORM) process. The Basel II concept is outlined from the operational risk point of view, incl. methods for capital requirement for operational risk. Consequently, essential regulatory requirements and bank standards for effective management and control systems are specified. ORM tools that are potentially able to capture business environment and internal controls factors (to be regarded within AMA models) are disserted, specially concentrating on key risk indicators. Construction of this ORM tool is designed on a theoretical basis and also on an example related to payment systems. There is an evaluation of advantages, challenges and possible ways to use this method.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:25:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gustavo de Magalhaes Rezende.pdf: 1393519 bytes, checksum: 29eb5b0b0c12d95da19bb067fc0df68c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-08-08 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / Basel II Accord will allow banks in Brazil to calculate their capital requirements using internal ratings based on the advanced IRB (Internal Rating-Based) approach, depending on their credit risk exposure. The main modeling components that must be estimated are the probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD) and exposure at default (EAD). The aim of this dissertation is to estimate the parameter LGD using different models found in the literature in order to compare the obtained results. For that, the credit portfolios within this study will be simulated via Monte Carlo simulation, due to the difficulty in getting real losses data. / O acordo de Basileia II no Brasil vai permitir que os bancos utilizem modelos internos, na abordagem IRB avançada (Internal Rating-Based), que sirvam de base para o cálculo dos requisitos mínimos de capital em função do nível de exposição ao risco de crédito. Dentre os principais componentes estimados estão a probabilidade de default (PD probability of default), a perda dado o default (LGD loss given default) e a exposição no default (EAD exposure at default). Esta dissertação tem como objetivo realizar estimativas de LGD utilizando alguns modelos descritos na literatura e comparando os resultados obtidos. Para tanto, os portfólios de crédito do estudo serão simulados através de técnicas de Monte Carlo, dada a escassez de dados de perdas reais.

The aim of this thesis was to investigate the use of effect sizes to report the results of statistical credit rating models in a more practical way. Rating systems in the form of statistical probability models like logistic regression models are used to forecast the behaviour of clients and guide business in rating clients as “high” or “low” risk borrowers. Therefore, model results were reported in terms of statistical significance as well as business language (practical significance), which business experts can understand and interpret. In this thesis, statistical results were expressed as effect sizes like Cohen‟s d that puts the results into standardised and measurable units, which can be reported practically. These effect sizes indicated strength of correlations between variables, contribution of variables to the odds of defaulting, the overall goodness-of-fit of the models and the models‟ discriminating ability between high and low risk customers. / Statistics / M. Sc. (Statistics)

銀行是商業金融活動中不可或缺的一環，其經營管理的良窳直接與經濟、財政之穩定息息相關。近年來，銀行經營環境丕變，業務日趨龐雜，不論是金融界或監理機關，都已意識到作業風險管理的重要性。對於銀行業這樣一個關乎國計民生的重要產業，深入了解其作業風險應有之程序，以及其進行作業風險管理時之內控作為，應有見微知著之管理意義。 新版巴塞爾資本協定(The New Basel Capital Accord，亦稱”Basel II”)已於2004年6月底正式定案，預計2006年底開始實施，其中進階方法將在2007年底適用，Basel II的修訂範圍頗大，將對各國銀行業及金融監理機關產生重大影響，各國為因應新巴塞爾資本協定的實施也早已開始進行各項研究評估及法案研擬。我國金管會為使國內銀行資本適足性管理及風險管理能力符合國際水準，已於民國九十三年九月二十一日發函通知銀行，參照國際規範修訂我國「銀行資本適足性管理辦法」及「銀行自有資本與風險性資產計算方法說明」等規定，預定將與國際同步於民國九十五年底正式實施新巴塞爾資本協定，因此各家銀行必須及早規劃以因應新巴塞爾資本協定相關措施，並建立妥善風險管理機制，以確保法規遵循及提昇競爭力。 而美國國會為強化證券市場之監控及公司治理，亦已於2002年7月30日公布SARBANES-OXLEY ACT OF 2002(沙氏法案)，為美國自30年代推行公司治理架構以來，影響最為重大之財經改革法案。沙氏法案針對公司治理提出一系列的要求，為避免企業在資訊揭露方面造假或扭曲，特別針對內部控制的建立、維持及其有效性，要求企業管理階層必須負起責任，同時亦要求企業必須出具對有關財務報導之內部控制有效性的評估報告。 Basel II與沙氏法案有其相異之處，前者係對全世界銀行業者之規範，後者則係美國針對公開發行等級以上公司所作之規範，舉凡已屬公開發行之公司，其任何資訊揭露均足以影響投資人決策，而發行公司任何不實或虛偽資訊揭露，均可能影響資本市場，使廣大投資人權益受損。雖然Basel II著眼在銀行，沙氏法案重點在證券市場公司之治理，然則兩者均著重有系統的由內而外、由上而下的控制機制，不獨要求業者必須建立良好之控制機制，同時在各項控制機制上亦必須有書面做為佐證，而兩項規範亦均導入外控機制，在Basel II為第三支柱之市場紀律，在沙氏法案則為會計師對企業內控有效性之意見，兩者自有其神似之處。 作者任職於美商銀行從事後台管理工作多年，擬藉本論文之撰寫及探討，補強銀行業者對銀行作業風險及控制自評全貌之了解。

Many analysts believe that problems in the United States housing market initiated the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. In this regard, the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC) shook the foundations of the financial industry by causing the failure of many iconic Wall Street investment banks and prominent depository institutions. This crisis stymied credit extension to households and businesses thus creating credit crunches and, ultimately, a global recession. This thesis specifically discusses the SMC and its components, causes, consequences and cures in relation to subprime mortgage origination, data as well as bank bailouts. In particular, the SMC has highlighted the fact that risk, credit ratings, profit and valuation as well as capital regulation are important banking considerations. With regard to risk, the thesis discusses credit (including counterparty), market (including interest rate, basis, prepayment, liquidity and price), tranching (including maturity mismatch and synthetic), operational (including house appraisal, valuation and compensation) and systemic (including maturity transformation) risks. The thesis introduces the IDIOM hypothesis that postulates that the SMC was largely caused by the intricacy and design of subprime agents, mortgage origination that led to information problems (loss, asymmetry and contagion), valuation opaqueness and ineffective risk mitigation. It also contains appropriate examples, discussions, timelines as well as appendices about the main results on the aforementioned topics. Numerous references point to the material not covered in the thesis, and indicate some avenues for further research. In the sequel, the banks that we study are subprime interbank lenders (SILs), subprime originators (SORs), subprime dealer banks (SDBs) and their special purpose vehicles (SPVs) such as Wall Street investment banks and their special structures as well as subprime investing banks (SIBs). Furthermore, the primary subprime agents that we consider are house appraisers (HAs), mortgage brokers (MBs), mortgagors (MRs), servicers (SRs), trustees, underwriters and credit enhancement providers (CEPs). Also, the insurers involved in the subprime market are originator mortgage insurers (OMIs) and monoline insurers (MLIs). The main components of the SMC are MRs, the housing market, SDBs/hedge funds/money market funds/SIBs, the economy as well as the government (G) and central banks. Here, G either plays a regulatory, bailout or policymaking role. Most of the aforementioned banks and agents are assumed to be risk neutral with SOR being the exception since it can be risk (and regret) averse on occasion. The three main aspects of the SMC - subprime mortgage origination, data and bailouts - that we cover in this thesis and the chapters in which they are found are outlined below. In Chapter 2, we discuss the dynamics of SORs' capital, information, ratings, risk and valuation under mortgage origination. In particular, we model subprime mortgages that are able to fully amortize, voluntarily prepay or default and construct a discrete-time model for SOR risk and profit incorporating costs of funds and mortgage insurance as well as loan losses. Furthermore, a constrained optimal valuation problem for SORs under mortgage origination is solved. In addition, we show how high loan-to-value ratios curtailed the refinancing of subprime mortgages, while low ratios imply favorable house equity for subprime MRs. Chapter 2 also explores the relationship between Basel capital regulation and the SMC. This involves studying bank credit and capital under Basel regulation. Further issues dealt with are the quantity and pricing of subprime mortgages as well as credit ratings under Basel capital regulation. A key problem is whether Basel capital regulation exacerbated the SMC. Very importantly, the thesis answers this question in the affirmative. Chapter 3 contains subprime data not presented in Chapters 2. We present other mortgage data that also have connections with the main subprime issues raised. In Chapter 4, a troubled SOR's recapitalization by G via subprime bank bailouts is discussed. Our research supports the view that if SOR is about to fail, it will have an incentive not to extend low risk mortgages but rather high risk mortgages thus shifting risk onto its creditors. Here, for instance, we analyze the efficiency of purchasing toxic structured mortgage products from troubled SORs as opposed to buying preferred and common equity. In this regard, we compare the cases where SORs' on-balance sheet mortgages are fully amortizing, voluntarily prepaying (refinancing and equity extraction) and involuntarily prepaying (defaulting). If bailing out SORs considered to be too big to fail involves buying assets at above fair market values, then these SORs are encouraged ex-ante to invest in high risk mortgages and toxic structured mortgage products. Contrary to the policy employed by G, purchasing common (preferred) equity is always the most (least) ex-anteand ex-post-efficient type of capital injection. Our research confirms that this is true irrespective of whether SOR volunteers for recapitalization or not. In order to understand the key results in Chapters 2 to 4, a working knowledge of discrete-time stochastic modeling and optimization is required. The work presented in this thesis is based on a book (see [103]), 2 peer-reviewed international journal articles (see [51] and [105]), 2 peer-reviewed chapters in books (see [104] and [110]) and 4 peer-reviewed conference proceedings paper (see [23], [106], [107] and [109]). / Thesis (Ph.D. (Applied Mathematics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.