Floods, earthquakes, storms and other natural disasters wreak havoc across the globe each year. Climate change threatens to aggravate the problem. Insurance can be one way to make societies more resilient these disasters; by spreading risks over time and space, insurance softens the blows of natural disasters, helps victims to recover quickly, and incentivises risk reduction. In many developing countries, however, many homeowners lack the security insurance provides; instead, they depend on disaster aid in the event of a catastrophe, which is often unreliable. To improve access to (disaster) insurance in developing countries, global political leaders have initiated several programmes, such as the G7 InsuResilience Initiative. Evidence, however, shows that even where disaster insurance is widely accessible, only a few individuals purchase it, implying that the low adoption of disaster insurance in developing countries goes beyond accessibility. Understanding the causes of the low demand for the existing insurance schemes would inform the design of future ones. This thesis, therefore, examines why homeowners in Ghana fail to purchase disaster insurance for their homes despite the availability of disaster insurance for residential homes since the 1960s. What explanations does the literature provide for the lack of disaster insurance adoption? How does the lack of comprehensive data on natural hazards affect Ghanaian insurers’ natural disaster insurance underwriting decisions? Are individuals who believe that luck, chance, fate, or powerful others determine what happens to them less likely to purchase natural disaster insurance, compared with those who believe that they can influence what happens to them? The thesis addresses these questions in three peer-reviewed articles, specifying how the decisions of insurers, individuals and governments affect disaster insurance adoption in Ghana. The thesis contributes to the literature by first systematically surveying the economics, insurance and psychology literature to understand the alternative economic and behavioural explanations for the lack of demand for disaster insurance, especially in developing countries. The thesis also shows that contrary to standard insurance theory, Ghanaian insurers do not reward investments in preventive measures with lower premia and rather charge higher premia since they lack information about risks at the micro level and therefore interpret risk reduction measures as a sign of high risk. The third significant contribution of the thesis is that individuals’ worldviews influence their disaster insurance purchasing decisions. Based on Ghanaian survey data, the thesis finds individuals who believe they control their own destiny more likely to purchase disaster insurance, compared with those who believe that external forces, luck or fate determines life events. / Überschwemmungen, Erdbeben, Stürme oder andere Naturkatastrophen richten rund um den Globus jedes Jahr verheerende Schäden an. Der Klimawandel droht, die Probleme noch zu verschärfen. Versicherungen können ein Weg sein, um Gesellschaften widerstandsfähiger gegen Naturkatastrophen zu machen. Versicherungen lindern die Auswirkung von Naturkatastrophen, indem sie die Risiken über Zeit und Raum verteilen. Sie helfen Betroffenen, um wirtschaftlich wieder auf die Beine zu kommen, und bieten Anreize zum Abbau von Risiken. Trotzdem schließen die meisten Hausbesitzer in Entwicklungsländern kaum Versicherungen ab. Stattdessen sind sie im Katastrophenfall abhängig von Beihilfen, welche jedoch oft nur unzuverlässig fließen. Um den Zugang zu Versicherungen gegen Katastrophen in Entwicklungsländern zu erleichtern, wurden weltweit verschiedene Programme aufgelegt, so etwa die G7-Initiative InsuResilience. Gerade in Entwicklungsländern versichern sich trotz verbesserter Zugänglichkeit nur wenige Menschen gegen Katastrophen. Damit scheint die unzureichende Versicherung gegen Katastrophen in Entwicklungsländern nicht allein eine Frage der Zugänglichkeit zu sein. Die Gründe für die geringe Nachfrage nach existierenden Versicherungen zu verstehen, könnte helfen, das Design neuer, effektiverer Versicherungsangebote zu beeinflussen. Aus diesem Grund untersucht die Arbeit, warum sich Hausbesitzer in Ghana kaum gegen Katastrophen versichern, obwohl es entsprechende Angebote seit den 1960er Jahren gibt. Welche Erklärungen bietet die Literatur für die mangelnde Annahme entsprechender Versicherungen? Wie werden Ghanaische Versicherungsnehmer in ihrer Entscheidung über den Versicherungsabschluss vom Fehlen umfangreicher Daten über die Auswirkungen von Naturkatastrophen beeinflusst? Sind Menschen, die an persönliches Glück, an Chancen, an Schicksal oder an äußere, lebensbeeinflussende Mächte glauben, weniger geneigt, sich gegen Katastrophen zu versichern als Menschen, die glauben, sie könnten ihr Leben selbst beeinflussen? Die Dissertation setzt sich in drei Artikeln mit diesen Fragen auseinander und geht darauf ein, was in Ghana die Akzeptanz von Versicherungen gegen Katastrophen beeinflusst. Ein Beitrag der Arbeit besteht in der systematischen Aufbereitung der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen, versicherungswissenschaftlichen und psychologischen Literatur, um – speziell in Bezug auf Entwicklungsländer – alternative wirtschafts- und verhaltenswissenschaftliche Erklärungsansätze für das Fehlen einer Nachfrage nach Versicherungen gegen Katastrophen zu verstehen. Die Arbeit zeigt außerdem, dass Ghanaische Versicherungen – im Gegensatz zur gängigen Versicherungstheorie – Investitionen der Versicherungsnehmer in Präventionsmaßnahmen nicht durch niedrigere Prämien honorieren. Weil den Versicherungen Informationen über Risiken auf Mikroebene fehlen, interpretieren sie solche Maßnahmen als Zeichen für ein erhöhtes Risiko und verlangen sogar höhere Prämien. Ein dritter Beitrag der Arbeit untersucht – anhand von Ghanaischen Befragungsdaten – die Hypothese, dass die fundamentale Weltanschauungen die Entscheidung über den Abschluss einer Versicherung gegen Katastrophen beeinflusst werden. Menschen, die glauben, sie könnten ihr Schicksal selbst bestimmen, versichern sich eher gegen Katastrophen als Menschen die glauben, ihr Leben würde durch äußere Mächte, Glück oder das Schicksal bestimmt.

Cette thèse aborde la question du Changement Catégoriel dans la Perception et propose une approche Dynamique qui s’appuie sur la Théorie des Catastrophes et le modèle de la FRONCE. Dans nos travaux, nous assimilons les catégories perceptives à des attracteurs d’un système dynamique non linéaire. Si notre postulat est juste, alors, un ensemble de phénomènes non linéaires théoriquement associés doivent pouvoir être observé conjointement dans un changement catégoriel qui pourrait alors être considéré comme une transition de phase. Nous avons porté notre attention sur le phénomène d’Hystérèse, déjà abondamment exploré en perception, ainsi que sur les phénomènes de divergence et de ralentissement critique. Au travers d’une série de sept expérimentations, nous confrontons l’ensemble de ces hypothèses. Nous avons confirmé la présence de ces trois phénomènes lors d’un changement catégoriel. Les résultats montrent que l’hystérèse, la divergence et le ralentissement critique sont des phénomènes observés conjointement lors d’un changement de catégorie, mais qu’ils sont aussi quantitativement reliés, comme permettait de le prédire le modèle de la fronce issue de la théorie des catastrophes. D’une manière générale, nous avons conclu que les catégories perceptives étaient fortement similaires à des d’attracteurs et que l’étude et la modélisation des changements dans la perception devraient présenter un aspect nécessairement dynamique. / This thesis gets into the main question of Categorial Change in Perception and proposes a Dynamical approach that relies on the Catastrophes Theory and the model of the CUSP. In this work, we claim that perceptive categories are attractors in a non linear dynamics system. If we state right, we must find out several specific phenomenon theoretically linked to a phase transition in the moment of a categorial change. We bear witness for Hysteresis, which is yet widely documented in perception. Besides and in addition, we also look for divergence and critical slowing down phenomena. Along seven experimentations, we put those hypotheses to the test and achieve to attest for the occurrence of the three predicted phenomena over the categorial change. Not only results show that hysteresis, divergence and critical slowing down occur together during a categorial change but also they are quantitatively related as predicted by the catastrophe model of the cusp. More widely, we conclude, that perceptual categories might be regarded as strongly related to attractors and that survey and modeling of changes in perception shall include inevitable dynamics considerations henceforth.

Floods, earthquakes, storms and other natural disasters wreak havoc across the globe each year. Climate change threatens to aggravate the problem. Insurance can be one way to make societies more resilient these disasters; by spreading risks over time and space, insurance softens the blows of natural disasters, helps victims to recover quickly, and incentivises risk reduction. In many developing countries, however, many homeowners lack the security insurance provides; instead, they depend on disaster aid in the event of a catastrophe, which is often unreliable. To improve access to (disaster) insurance in developing countries, global political leaders have initiated several programmes, such as the G7 InsuResilience Initiative. Evidence, however, shows that even where disaster insurance is widely accessible, only a few individuals purchase it, implying that the low adoption of disaster insurance in developing countries goes beyond accessibility. Understanding the causes of the low demand for the existing insurance schemes would inform the design of future ones. This thesis, therefore, examines why homeowners in Ghana fail to purchase disaster insurance for their homes despite the availability of disaster insurance for residential homes since the 1960s. What explanations does the literature provide for the lack of disaster insurance adoption? How does the lack of comprehensive data on natural hazards affect Ghanaian insurers’ natural disaster insurance underwriting decisions? Are individuals who believe that luck, chance, fate, or powerful others determine what happens to them less likely to purchase natural disaster insurance, compared with those who believe that they can influence what happens to them? The thesis addresses these questions in three peer-reviewed articles, specifying how the decisions of insurers, individuals and governments affect disaster insurance adoption in Ghana. The thesis contributes to the literature by first systematically surveying the economics, insurance and psychology literature to understand the alternative economic and behavioural explanations for the lack of demand for disaster insurance, especially in developing countries. The thesis also shows that contrary to standard insurance theory, Ghanaian insurers do not reward investments in preventive measures with lower premia and rather charge higher premia since they lack information about risks at the micro level and therefore interpret risk reduction measures as a sign of high risk. The third significant contribution of the thesis is that individuals’ worldviews influence their disaster insurance purchasing decisions. Based on Ghanaian survey data, the thesis finds individuals who believe they control their own destiny more likely to purchase disaster insurance, compared with those who believe that external forces, luck or fate determines life events. / Überschwemmungen, Erdbeben, Stürme oder andere Naturkatastrophen richten rund um den Globus jedes Jahr verheerende Schäden an. Der Klimawandel droht, die Probleme noch zu verschärfen. Versicherungen können ein Weg sein, um Gesellschaften widerstandsfähiger gegen Naturkatastrophen zu machen. Versicherungen lindern die Auswirkung von Naturkatastrophen, indem sie die Risiken über Zeit und Raum verteilen. Sie helfen Betroffenen, um wirtschaftlich wieder auf die Beine zu kommen, und bieten Anreize zum Abbau von Risiken. Trotzdem schließen die meisten Hausbesitzer in Entwicklungsländern kaum Versicherungen ab. Stattdessen sind sie im Katastrophenfall abhängig von Beihilfen, welche jedoch oft nur unzuverlässig fließen. Um den Zugang zu Versicherungen gegen Katastrophen in Entwicklungsländern zu erleichtern, wurden weltweit verschiedene Programme aufgelegt, so etwa die G7-Initiative InsuResilience. Gerade in Entwicklungsländern versichern sich trotz verbesserter Zugänglichkeit nur wenige Menschen gegen Katastrophen. Damit scheint die unzureichende Versicherung gegen Katastrophen in Entwicklungsländern nicht allein eine Frage der Zugänglichkeit zu sein. Die Gründe für die geringe Nachfrage nach existierenden Versicherungen zu verstehen, könnte helfen, das Design neuer, effektiverer Versicherungsangebote zu beeinflussen. Aus diesem Grund untersucht die Arbeit, warum sich Hausbesitzer in Ghana kaum gegen Katastrophen versichern, obwohl es entsprechende Angebote seit den 1960er Jahren gibt. Welche Erklärungen bietet die Literatur für die mangelnde Annahme entsprechender Versicherungen? Wie werden Ghanaische Versicherungsnehmer in ihrer Entscheidung über den Versicherungsabschluss vom Fehlen umfangreicher Daten über die Auswirkungen von Naturkatastrophen beeinflusst? Sind Menschen, die an persönliches Glück, an Chancen, an Schicksal oder an äußere, lebensbeeinflussende Mächte glauben, weniger geneigt, sich gegen Katastrophen zu versichern als Menschen, die glauben, sie könnten ihr Leben selbst beeinflussen? Die Dissertation setzt sich in drei Artikeln mit diesen Fragen auseinander und geht darauf ein, was in Ghana die Akzeptanz von Versicherungen gegen Katastrophen beeinflusst. Ein Beitrag der Arbeit besteht in der systematischen Aufbereitung der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen, versicherungswissenschaftlichen und psychologischen Literatur, um – speziell in Bezug auf Entwicklungsländer – alternative wirtschafts- und verhaltenswissenschaftliche Erklärungsansätze für das Fehlen einer Nachfrage nach Versicherungen gegen Katastrophen zu verstehen. Die Arbeit zeigt außerdem, dass Ghanaische Versicherungen – im Gegensatz zur gängigen Versicherungstheorie – Investitionen der Versicherungsnehmer in Präventionsmaßnahmen nicht durch niedrigere Prämien honorieren. Weil den Versicherungen Informationen über Risiken auf Mikroebene fehlen, interpretieren sie solche Maßnahmen als Zeichen für ein erhöhtes Risiko und verlangen sogar höhere Prämien. Ein dritter Beitrag der Arbeit untersucht – anhand von Ghanaischen Befragungsdaten – die Hypothese, dass die fundamentale Weltanschauungen die Entscheidung über den Abschluss einer Versicherung gegen Katastrophen beeinflusst werden. Menschen, die glauben, sie könnten ihr Schicksal selbst bestimmen, versichern sich eher gegen Katastrophen als Menschen die glauben, ihr Leben würde durch äußere Mächte, Glück oder das Schicksal bestimmt.

La présente thèse s'inscrit dans un projet de plus grande envergure évaluant les besoins des personnes évacuées lors des feux de forêt de Fort McMurray de 2016 et l'efficacité d'une thérapie cognitivo-comportementale en ligne visant la réduction des symptômes post-traumatiques, dépressifs et liés à l'insomnie (RESILIENT). Elle s'intéresse plus précisément à l'influence du genre en lien avec divers éléments liés au processus thérapeutique, soit la recherche d'aide psychologique, l'efficacité du traitement en ligne ainsi que l'utilisation objective et l'appréciation subjective de ce traitement. Les résultats ont montré plusieurs différences entre les hommes et les femmes. D'abord, les femmes étaient plus susceptibles d'utiliser des services psychologiques dans l'année qui a suivi les feux. Parmi les participants ayant reçu le traitement RESILIENT, les hommes et les femmes ont réagi différemment en termes de stratégies d'adaptation orientées vers les buts. De plus, l'amélioration des hommes au niveau de l'insomnie et des cognitions post-traumatiques liées au blâme personnel s'est avérée supérieure à celle des femmes. Les résultats montrent également que les femmes ont écrit un plus grand nombre de mots dans certains modules de traitement que les hommes. Les hommes avaient une plus grande perception d'avoir mis beaucoup d'efforts dans la stratégie de restructuration cognitive que les femmes, tandis que les femmes ont rapporté dans une plus grande proportion une intention de continuer d'utiliser l'activité physique comme stratégie d'activation comportementale. Les résultats ont toutefois révélé une absence d'effet du genre dans la présence de barrières au traitement dans l'année suivant les feux, dans la diminution des symptômes post-traumatiques et dépressifs à la suite du traitement, dans l'utilisation de plusieurs stratégies d'adaptation, dans l'adhésion aux cognitions post-traumatiques négatives envers soi et envers le monde, dans l'amélioration du soutien social perçu et dans la plupart des indicateurs d'utilisation du traitement en ligne. D'un côté, il semble que le fait d'avoir offert aux participants une variété d'options thérapeutiques dans le cas du présent traitement en ligne ait constitué une option bénéfique pour les participants et participantes. Quoi qu'ils aient des rapports différents envers la recherche d'aide, qu'ils aient évolué et utilisé le traitement de manière quelque peu différente, leur amélioration somme toute similaire suggère qu'un traitement multi-composante respectant le rythme des participants corresponde autant aux besoins des participants hommes que femmes. D'un autre côté, l'étude met en évidence que des différences de genre existent à différents plans au niveau du processus thérapeutique et souligne l'importance de développer des traitements en ligne sensibles aux caractéristiques individuelles . Comme notre compréhension de la notion du genre est en évolution, d'autres études sont nécessaires pour bien comprendre comment genre et traitements psychologiques interagissent, afin d'offrir à tous les utilisateurs des options qui conviennent à leurs besoins à leurs caractéristiques sociodémographiques uniques. / This doctoral thesis is situated within a larger project evaluating the needs of evacuees of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfires and the effectiveness of an online cognitive behavioral therapy aimed at reducing posttraumatic symptoms, depressive symptoms, and insomnia (the RESILIENT treatment). Specifically, it examined the influence of gender in various aspects of the therapeutic process, namely psychological help-seeking, therapeutic efficacy, and treatment usage. The results showed several differences between men and women. First, women were more likely to use psychological services in the year following the fires. Among participants who received the RESILIENT treatment, men and women responded differently in terms of goal-oriented coping strategies. In addition, men's improvement in insomnia and self-blame post-traumatic cognitions was found to be greater than women's. The findings also showed that women wrote a greater number of words in some treatment sessions than men. Men had a greater perception of having put a lot of effort into the cognitive restructuring strategy than women, while women reported in a greater proportion an intention to continue using physical activity as a behavioral activation strategy. Results, however, revealed no gender effect in the presence of barriers to treatment in the year following the fires, in the reduction of posttraumatic and depressive symptoms following treatment, in the use of several coping strategies, in the adherence to negative posttraumatic cognitions about the self and the world, in the improvement of perceived social support, and in most indicators of online treatment usage. On the one hand, it appears that offering participants a variety of therapeutic strategies in this online treatment was beneficial for both men and women. Although they related to help-seeking in different ways, evolved and used the treatment somewhat differently, their similar improvement suggests that a multi-component, self-paced treatment is as suitable for men as it is for women. On the other hand, the study highlights that gender differences exist in various aspects of the treatment process and underscores the importance of developing online treatments that are sensitive to individual characteristics. As our understanding of gender evolves, further research is needed to fully understand how gender and psychological treatments interact, so that individuals can be offered options that are appropriate to their needs.

Catastrophe theory (CT) is a relatively new mathematical theory that comprehensively describes a system exhibiting discontinuous behavior when subjected to continuous stimuli. This study tests the theory using capital-market data. The data is a time series of stock returns on firms that filed for Chapter 11 reorganization during 1980-1985. The CT model used is based on a corporate failure model suggested by Francis, Hastings and Fabozzi (1983). The model predicts 1) as the filing date approaches, there will be a structural shift in the underlying stock-return generating process of the filing firm, and 2) firms with lower operating risk will have a smaller jump than firms with higher operating risk, corresponding to their relative positions within the bifurcation set of the catastrophe cusp.

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

This thesis discusses the occurrence and evolution of natural disasters in the world and in the Czech republic. More detail it deals with floods in the Czech republic, the causes of their formation, climate changes and especially tools of coverage the damage caused by them on property of individuals. In addition to prevention, commercial insurance, public and private sources are also considered the instruments of capital market. The interest is focused on barriers of commercial insurance that reduce the level of insurance protection. Finally, this work deals also with storms in the Czech republic.

Climate change is an undisputable fact. However it has not been found out yet with certainty what role does the human activity play and how is climate change influenced by nature cycles. A major role play greenhouse gases trapped in the atmosphere. These gases are linked to various issues, one of them being the global warming. In order to reduce the amount of emitted greenhouse gases, various conferences on climate change took place. During meetings participants have been trying to find a solution for gradual reducing level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate change will probably result in more severe natural catastrophes, according to renowned scientists. Most probably there will be a rising occurrence of tropical cyclones, severe droughts or a change in rain precipitation throughout the world. Future predictions are not clear yet and there is still no common agreement among scientists about how the future developments will be. However there is a clear increasing trend in the amount of insured losses, economic losses and the number of catastrophic events, which influences insurance industry. This trend could be caused by more elements, including increasing insurance penetration, increasing concentration of economic values or increasing migration into hazard zones. Climate change can also be partly to blame for the negative developments of insured losses and therefore insurance industry should play a major role in an effort to assess possible future risks in order to decrease its vulnerability to future risk developments. Indemnity rise makes insurance companies and the whole industry more vulnerable to insolvency and thus new ways to diversify risks are being searched for. Cooperation between public and private sector is one of the solutions which help to make almost uninsurable risks insurable. However, there are still risks that are almost unbearable by cooperation of these two sectors. Alternative risk transfer to capital market is one of solutions for mitigating the possibility of huge future losses. In the process of an alternative risk transfer, investors are participating in catastrophe risk development through e.g. catastrophe bonds. Bonds give investors an opportunity to further diversify their portfolio and receive an attractive yield in return to an exposure to a risk of a big catastrophe loss which could result in installment cut, installment annulment or even principal annulment depending on the severity of the catastrophe. Through these risk transfer methods catastrophe losses of huge extents can be spread to more parties, helping to decrease the risk of default of parties and thus increasing the probability of liabilities settlement.

Esta pesquisa tem como objeto principal caracterizar a sociedade de risco e analisar a organização político-institucional de resposta à vulnerabilidade. A sociedade que constrói perigos tecnológicos e convive com os perigos naturais, estrutura-se para minimizar, reduzir ou eliminar os impactos causados por estes processos com perdas de vidas e econômicas de grandes perdas através da forma institucional denominada defesa civil. A partir das bases conceituais da teoria sociológica contemporânea, discute-se a efetividade do Estado para reduzir tais riscos e mitigar desastres, focalizando-se o caso Brasil mas, em especial, o caso do município de São Carlos/SP. Os procedimentos de pesquisa social utilizada formam: a) síntese da literatura no tema de riscos na sociologia: Anthony Guiddens, Milton Santos, Ulrich Beck, Scott Lash, Norma Felicidade da Silva Valencio, e outros; b) síntese de pesquisa na análise dos riscos no território: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Ishoaqui Shimbo,Masato Kobiyama, Nivaldo Nale e Pedro Caballero; c) síntese de pesquisa documental e análise institucional, registros oficiais de orgãos constituintes do Sistema Nacional de Defesa Civil (SINDEC), além de documentos de instuições internacionais de proteção civil e fontes jornalísticas, e outros. Comprovou-se que existe uma baixa reflexividade na produção social do espaço e em decorrência, baixa efetividade das políticas de emergência centenárias que se repetem privilegiando um enfoque equivocado do problema e suas soluções, revelando um novo-velho desastre a cada evento. A partir dos resultados é possivel propor soluções e recomendações de políticas públicas relacionadas com a proteção civil. / This research has for main object to characterize the risk society and to analyze the politicize-institutional organization of answer to the vulnerability. The society built technological dangers and lives together with the natural dangers, it is structured to minimize, to reduce or to eliminate the impacts caused by these processes with losses of lives and economical of big sets up through the form denominated institutional civil defense. Starting from the conceptual bases of the contemporary sociological theory, the effectiveness of the state is discussed to reduce such risks and to mitigate disasters, being focalized the case Brazil but, especially, the case of the municipal district of São Carlos/SP. The procedures of used social research were: a) research synthesis of the literature in the used social theme were: Anthony Guiddens, Milton Santos, Ulrich Beck, Scott Lash, Norma Felicidade da Silva Valencio, and others; b) research synthesis in the analysis of the risks in the territory: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Ioshoaqui Shimbo, Masato Kobiyama, Nivaldo Nale e Pedro Caballero, and others; c) research synthesis of documental research and institutional analysis, official registrations of constituent organs of the National System of Civil Defense and sources journalistic, and other. We was proven that a low reflexivity exists in the social production of the space and in consequence, low effectiveness of the centennial emergency politics that one repeat privileging a mistaken focus of the problem and your solutions, revealing a new-old disaster to each event. Starting from the results it is possible to propose solutions and recommendations of public politics related with the civil protection.