Although strategies to meet most management objectives are relatively clearcut in single-species catchable trout programs, strategies become much more complex when two or more species are involved. A difficult problem that must be faced in evaluating catchable trout fisheries management strategies is defining management objectives. One approach to testing alternative management strategies in complex resource systems, such as catchable trout fisheries, is systems simulation. A computer-implemented catchable trout fishery simulator (CATS) was developed to evaluate fishery response under various management strategies in a multi-species stocking program. The user of CATS can select alternative management strategies and functions which generate predictions of fishing pressure on a particular fishery. To evaluate the effect of each system component, CATS was exercised over a wide range of potential system component alterations. Predominant stocking of brook trout appreciably increased average catch per angler hour and percentage return to creel. Altering the stocking ratio to favor brown trout substantially increased the number of angler hours. Stocking predominantly rainbow trout reduced the effects caused by stocking predominantly brook or brown trout. Estimates of expected angling pressure ru1d catchability coefficients of each species stocked are of primary importance because of their considerable effect on other system components. A user must have a sound objective before deciding where, when, which species, and how many fish to plant. The primary utility of CATS is to enable the user to evaluate management strategies prior to implementation. / Master of Science

Inherent uncertainties in the stock assessment for weakfish have precluded accurate and consistent advice concerning the management of commercial and recreational fisheries. Error within ageing techniques, used to assess relative age frequencies within commercial and recreational harvest, has been cited as a potential source for uncertainty during assessments of the weakfish fishery. The implications for age-reading error on weakfish stock assessment were explored using measurement-error growth models (i.e. Chapter 1), ageing error matrices within a statistical catch-at-age framework (i.e. Chapter 2), and Monte Carlo simulations to gauge robustness of ignoring this type of uncertainty during fisheries stock assessment (i.e. Chapter 3). Measurement-error growth models typically resulted in weakfish that grew to reach larger sizes, but at slower rates, with median length-at-age being overestimated by traditional von Bertalanffy growth curves, at least for the observed age range. Measurement-error growth models allow for incorporation of ageing uncertainty during nonlinear growth curve estimation, as well as the ability to estimate the ageing error variance. Age-reading error was further considered during statistical catch-at-age analysis of the weakfish fishery, mainly through permutations of true catch-at-age via ageing error matrices constructed from estimates of the ageing error variance, thus reflecting changes in relative age compositions as a consequence of ageing uncertainty. As a result, absolute levels of key population parameters were influenced, but general trends in those parameters tended to be similar, with strong congruency across models as to weakfish stock dynamics in most recent years. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations showed that implications for age-reading error on weakfish stock assessment are varied, depending upon the direction and magnitude of the ageing uncertainty. However, relative trends of parameter estimates over time tended to be similar, resulting in proper allocation of weakfish stock status, regardless of the type of ageing error considered. Furthermore, assuming negligible ageing uncertainty within fishery-independent surveys appears reasonable, as simulations incorporating ageing error within indices of relative abundance showed similar patterns to situations that only considered observation noise. / Master of Science

The lack of timely reporting of commercial fisheries landings interferes with effective management of fisheries in United States Virgin Islands (USVI). Federal law requires that landings be limited to prevent annual catch limits (ACLs) from being exceeded. Previous attempts to predict total landings have used historic data from prior fishing seasons to predict future landings rather than leveraging available in-season data to provide a more real-time prediction of landings. This study presents an in-season model that predicts total landings using partial reports from the current fishing year. This estimate of total landings, including error bounds around that estimate, can then be compared to the ACL established for the species to estimate potential deviations from the allowable landings and adjust effort accordingly. The performance of the model was tested in a retrospective analysis on historical commercial landings data. Differences between predicted and observed fishing year landings by defined cut-off dates were used to identify reasonable deadlines for fishery managers to begin making reliable predictions on total annual landings. On average, predictions can be made with less than 9% error with at least four months of partial data, and with less than 5% error with at least seven months of partial data. This model's in-season predictions should be useful to managers to prevent ACL overages, and to guide fishers in their application of effort within and among components of the fishery, for example, to shift effort from one fishery management unit to another in response to excessive landings.

No description available.

Submitted by Igor Matos (igoryure.rm@gmail.com) on 2017-02-02T12:59:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISS_2015_Gisele do Couto Oliveira.pdf: 3804725 bytes, checksum: 45e896c07dc1435809923cc413a2e8ac (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Igor Matos (igoryure.rm@gmail.com) on 2017-02-03T12:04:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISS_2015_Gisele do Couto Oliveira.pdf: 3804725 bytes, checksum: 45e896c07dc1435809923cc413a2e8ac (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-03T12:04:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISS_2015_Gisele do Couto Oliveira.pdf: 3804725 bytes, checksum: 45e896c07dc1435809923cc413a2e8ac (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-14 / Introdução – O nascimento prematuro está associado a riscos de prejuízos a curto e longo prazo no crescimento, desenvolvimento, capacidade produtiva e qualidade de vida. Estudos sobre o crescimento de prematuros ainda são escassos e inconclusivos. Objetivo – Analisar o catch-up de crescimento de uma coorte de recém-nascidos prematuros atendidos no ambulatório de seguimento do Hospital Geral Universitário, Cuiabá – MT no período de 01/01/2005 a 31/12/2011. Método – Estudo observacional de coorte retrospectiva de pacientes prematuros acompanhados no ambulatório de seguimento de um hospital universitário no período de 01/01/2005 a 31/12/2011. Os dados do estudo foram obtidos a partir de revisão de arquivos e prontuários médicos. Curvas de crescimento foram construídas e analisadas conforme as curvas-padrão de Fenton e Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS) a partir das medidas de peso, altura, perímetro cefálico e índice de massa corpórea (IMC) registradas em cada consulta. As medidas antropométricas foram avaliadas ao nascimento e às idades corrigidas de 40 semanas e 1 ano. O desfecho foi catch-up de crescimento. Associações entre grupos foram investigadas por análise univariada. Resultados: Foram estudados 276 prematuros, a média de peso ao nascimento foi 1.960g ± 540g e a média de idade gestacional foi 33,7 ± 2,1 semanas, 52,17% eram do sexo masculino, 64,59% eram de raça negra e 83,70% eram prematuros moderados a tardios. Cerca de 64% tinham baixo peso ao nascer, 17,03% eram pequemos para a idade gestacional (PIG), 8,70% tiveram crescimento intrauterino restrito (CIUR) e 54,05% evoluíram com restrição do crescimento extrauterino na alta hospitalar ou à idade corrigida de 40 semanas. Entre os PIG e CIUR, 75% eram prematuros moderados a tardios. A maioria realizou pré-natal (89,35%) em serviço público com média de consultas de 5,8 ± 2,06; nasceu por via cirúrgica (68%); recebeu alta em aleitamento materno exclusivo (76,72%) e permanecia amamentando aos 6 meses de idade corrigida (64,13%), com ou sem complementação com fórmula. As características maternas foram: mediana de idade de 24 anos, 59,31% com escolaridade acima de 8 anos, 69,88% tinham um companheiro e 40,12% tinham renda familiar per capita abaixo de 0,5 salário mínimo. A maioria das crianças apresentou catch-up de crescimento no primeiro ano de vida, com mediana de idade em dias para peso = 49 (23,0 – 126,0), altura = 121,5 (48,8 – 197,5), perímetro cefálico = 65 (27,5 – 122,5) e IMC = 60 (39,0 – 142,0). Não houve diferenças significativas entre sexos e subgrupos de idade gestacional, exceto para os prematuros menores de 28 semanas. As medidas das crianças à idade corrigida de 1 ano foram dentro do padrão da OMS, porém abaixo da média para peso, altura e perímetro cefálico e acima da média para o IMC. Conclusão: O perfil de crescimento dos prematuros acompanhados neste serviço foi semelhante ao relatado na literatura, exceto para o perímetro cefálico que apresentou catch-up mais tardio que o peso. Houve predomínio de prematuros moderados a tardios com elevada taxa de restrição de crescimento extrauterino, mas a maioria alcançou o catch-up no primeiro ano de vida, principalmente nos primeiros seis meses, mostrando que ambulatórios de seguimento são fundamentais para o crescimento adequado dos prematuros egressos de Unidade de Terapia Intensiva neonatal / Background - Premature birth is associated with risks of short and long-term damage on growth, development, production capacity and quality of life. Studies about the premature growth are still scarce and inconclusive. Objective - Analyze the catch-up growth of a cohort of premature infants seen at follow-up clinic of the Hospital Geral Universitário, Cuiabá - MT during the period from 01/01/2005 to 31/12/2011. Method - Retrospective cohort study of premature infants followed in a university hospital from 2005/01/01 to 2011/12/31. The data were obtained from a review of files and medical records. Growth curves were constructed and analyzed according to the standard curves of Fenton and WHO as of weight, height, head circumference and body mass index (BMI) recorded at each visit. The anthropometric measurements were assessed at birth and corrected ages of 40 weeks and 1 year. The outcome was catch-up growth. Associations between groups were investigated by univariate analysis. Results: 276 premature infants were analyzed, the mean birth weight was 1960 ± 540g and the mean gestational age was 33.7 ± 2.1 weeks, 52.17% were male, 64.59% were black and 83.70% were moderate/late premature. Approximately 64% were preterm low birth weight infants, 17.03% were small for gestational age (SGA), 8.70% had intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) and 54.05% evolved with extrauterine growth restriction at discharge or at the corrected age of 40 weeks. Between SGA and IUGR, 75% were moderate/late premature. Most performed prenatal care (89.35%) in public service averaging 5.8 ± 2.06 consultations; born by surgery (68%); was discharged on exclusive breastfeeding (76.72%) and remained breastfeeding at 6 months of corrected age (64.13%), with or without supplementation with formula. Maternal characteristics were: median age of 24 years, 59.31% with education above 8 years, 69.88% had a companion and 40.12% had family income below 0.5 minimum wage. Most children reached growth catch-up in the first year of life with a median age in days for weight = 49 (23.0 to 126.0), height = 121.5 (48.8 to 197.5) head circumference = 65 (27.5 to 122.5) and BMI = 60 (39.0 to 142.0). There were no significant differences between sexes and gestational age subgroups, except for extremely preterm infants. The measures of children at the corrected age of 1 year were within the WHO standard, but below the average for weight, height and head circumference and above average for BMI. Conclusion: the growth pattern of premature followed in this hospital was similar to that reported in the literature, except for the head circumference that showed catch-up later that weight. There was a predominance of moderate to late preterm with high extrauterine growth restriction rate, but most achieved catch-up in the first year of life, especially in the first half, showing that follow-up clinics are essential for the proper growth of premature infants who were discharged from Neonatal Intensive Care Unit

Dans un contexte de changement climatique dont les projections régionales sont incertaines, de forte variabilité inter-annuelle du cycle hydrologique, de forte croissance démographique et de changement d'occupation des sols, les questions relatives au cycle hydrologique et à la ressource en eau actuels et à venir sont cruciales. Dans un tel contexte, ce travail de thèse approfondit la connaissance du fonctionnement hydrologique du bassin versant de l'Ouémé supérieur (situé en climat soudanien au Bénin), en considérant l'ensemble des termes et des processus du cycle hydrologique.Dans un premier temps, le fonctionnement hydrologique de l'Ouémé supérieur est analysé à l'échelle d'un versant grâce au modèle Hydrus 2D. Cette analyse de processus s'appuie sur un ensemble complet de mesures (précipitations, évapotranspiration, humidité du sol, niveau piézométrique, débit en rivière) obtenues dans le cadre de l'observatoire hydrométéorologique AMMA-CATCH. Les simulations montrent que la forêt ripisylve vidange la nappe profonde et la déconnecte ainsi du réseau hydrographique. L'apport d'eau de la nappe profonde permet une transpiration de la forêt ripisylve toute l'année, y compris en saison sèche. Les écoulements en rivière ne sont pas produits uniquement par exfiltration d'écoulements latéraux de subsurface non saturés, les bas-fonds jouent probablement un rôle.À méso-échelle, nous cherchons à quantifier l'impact de la variabilité spatiale de la conductivité hydraulique à saturation sur le bilan hydrologique et l'évapotranspiration. Le modèle numérique utilisé est nTopAMMA, formalisme dérivé de TopMODEL. À partir de mesures de terrain, nous avons mis en évidence que la variabilité spatiale de la conductivité hydraulique à saturation est corrélée à l'occupation du sol du bassin d'étude. La prise en compte de cette variabilité spatiale dans le modèle nTopAMMA montre que l'état hydrique et l'évapotranspiration simulés localement par le modèle dépendent aux trois-quarts de la topographie et pour un quart de la conductivité hydraulique à saturation.Adoptant une approche ascendante, nous confrontons la représentation élaborée à l'échelle du versant à la modélisation hydrologique à méso-échelle. Nous analysons les processus et flux verticaux du modèle nTopAMMA. L'amélioration de la modélisation du cycle hydrologique de l'Ouémé supérieur par le modèle nTopAMMA nécessite (i) la prise en compte des hétérogénéités du bassin versant, (ii) la modification du formalisme de l'évapotranspiration, (iii) la diversification des sources de prélèvements évapotranspiratoires et (iv) l'intégration de la nappe d'altérites. / Understanding how the hydrological cycle and water resources availability evolve in the current context of global change (which encompass climate, environmental and population changes) is a critical issue, particularly in West Africa, where at regional scale, strong interannual and seasonal variabilities overlap with highly uncertain climate predictions. Within this framework, this work aims at improving our knowledge of the behavior of the Upper Oueme catchment in Benin (Sudanian climate), with an analysis of all the hydrological processes and terms of the terrestrial hydrological cycle.First, the hillslope scale is considered by using the Hydrus 2D software and field observations from the hydrometeorological observing system AMMA-CATCH: rainfall, actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater level and river runoff. The principal result of this analysis is that the riparian forest transpiration depletes the deep groundwater and disconnects it from the river network. Water supply by the deep groundwater enables the riparian forest transpiration all year long and particularly during the dry season. Seepage of unsaturated subsurface lateral flows contributes to river runoff, but the "bas-fonds" seem to be other important contributors.Then, at mesoscale, we quantify the impact of the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity on the simulated water balance, with focus on the evapotranspiration term. The numerical model nTopAMMA, especially derived from the TopMODEL hydrological model for the Upper Oueme catchment, is used here. Measurements from a specific field mission evidence the correlation between the hydraulic conductivity spatial variability and the land use one. By taking into account this variability, the simulation results show that evapotranspiration and water storage simulated on the Upper Oueme catchment at local (pixel) scale depend essentially on the topography (75 %) and to a lesser extent on the hydraulic conductivity (25 %).Finally, a bottom-up approach is adopted to analyse the hydrological modelling results at mesoscale, taking advantage of the modelling results at the hillslope scale. Vertical processes and fluxes simulated by nTopAMMA are analyzed. It is shown that an improvement of the Upper Oueme hydrological cycle modelling, with nTopAMMA, requires: (i) the consideration of the catchment heterogeneities, (ii) the modification of the evapotranspiration module, (iii) the diversification of the evapotranspiration sources and (iv) the integration of the deep groundwater reservoir.

Both the Bavarian and Austrian societies have been undergoing a broad process of change since 1945: they have experienced a long period of economical growth, a rise of standards in terms of social welfare and education, and thus a value change and a switch to at least partly postmaterial society. Accompanying this change, however, there has also been more public disapproval towards the official policies, the number of people going to the polls has sunk and so has the number of people who are likely to become involved in party politics. Particularly the big, dominant catch-all parties, such as CSU (Christian Social Union of Bavaria) and ÖVP (Austrian People's Party), have been losing their voters and members. As the thesis shows, the developments in both societies are quite similar, as the political culture of Bavaria and Austria - in spite of certain differences - shares many common characteristics. Also, both CSU and ÖVP did partly manage to adapt to the new circumstances, particularly in terms of party funding. Anyway, they did not fully follow the pattern of cartelisation to pursue this adaptation. This reveals the link between postmaterialist change and the development to cartel party to be only partly valid; however, both theories have proved to be helpful in understanding processes taking...

<p>University of Växjö</p><p>School of Social Sciences</p><p>Bachelor Thesis in Political Science</p><p>Title: “Sverigedemokraternas valframgångar 2006 – En ulv i fårakläder?”</p><p>Author: Emma Haraldsson and Åsa Neuschütz</p><p>Tutor: Emil Uddhammar</p><p>The aim of this study is to explain Sverigedemokraterna’s electoral success in 2006 and the essay assumes that some form of change has occurred. To study this change two hypotheses have been constructed. The first hypothesis concerns the change within Sverigedemokraterna and the second hypothesis concerns the change of the Swedish voters attitudes.</p><p>Kirchheimers catch-all theory is used to explain the change in Sverigedemokraterna. The catch-all theory states that parties have to change their structure to maximise the number of votes. Lipset and Rokkan’s theory about the party system is also used along with Inglehart’s value studies to explain why parties change.</p><p>The tests of the hypotheses are carried out through a text analysis and a statistical survey. The essay concludes that Sverigedemokraterna has not changed very much and that it is mainly an esthetical and not an ideological change. Therefore the first hypothesis has to be falsified. The second hypothesis can be neither falsified nor verified, because the material is too diverse. Further studies are necessary to explain the electoral success of Sverigedemokraterna.</p>

Lauko eksperimentas atliktas 2010 m. Lietuvos žemės ūkio universiteto bandymų stotyje. Eksperimento lauko dirvožemis yra sekliai glėjiško karbonatingo išplautžemio LVg-p-w-cc(sc)-Calc(ar)i- Epihypogleyic Luvisol dulkiškas priemolis. Eksperimento tikslas buvo nustatyti sąveiką tarp kukurūzų, tarpinių augalų ir piktžolių bei jos įtaką kukurūzų pasėlio produktyvumui. Į kukurūzų tarpueilius buvo įsėti vasarinių rapsų (Brassica napus L.), baltųjų garstyčių (Sinapis alba L.), vasarinių miežių (Hordeum vulgare L.), vienmečių svidrių (Lolium multiflorum Lam.), apyninių liucernų (Medicago lupulina L.), persikinių dobilų (Trifolium resupinatum L.), ankstyvųjų raudonųju dobilų (Trifolium pratense L.) įsėliai, kaip tarpiniai augalai. Kaip ir buvo tikėtasi, į kukurūzus įsėti įsėliai stelbė piktžoles, tačiau konkuravo su pačiais kukurūzais bei mažino jų produktyvumą. Didžiausią neigiamą įtaką kukurūzų produktyvumui turėjo persikinių dobilų įsėlis. Mažiausią neigiamą įtaką turėjo vasarinių rapsų įsėlis. / Field experiment accomplished in 2010 in the Experimental Station of Lithuanian University of Agriculture. Field experiment soil is shallow calcareous soil luvisols (Calc(ar)i-Epihypogleyic Luvisol) silty loam. The aim of experiment was to establish the interaction between maize and living mulch and its influence on maize crop weediness and productivity. Maize crop inter-rows were sown with spring oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), white mustard (Sinapis alba L.), spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.), black medic (Medicago lupulina L.), Persian clover (Trifolium resupinatum L.) and red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) undercrop as catch crops. As expected, the undercrop of maize drown weeds, but they competed with corn and reduced their productivity. The biggest negative impact on productivity of maize was persian clover undercrop. The minimum negative impact on productivity of maize was spring oilseed rape undercrop.

According to conventional wisdom, the petroleum industry is classified as a ‘resource based’ and ‘mature’ industry. It is subject to the ‘resource curse’ thesis, exhausted of ‘technological opportunities’ with limited capacity for knowledge based economic growth. This study questions the adequacy of this line of reasoning. Exploring the technological complexity of the sector, a complementary argument is presented. We show that the sector has recently experienced a surge in ‘technological opportunities’. However the ‘systemic complexity of the knowledge base’ has constrained many oil producing countries’ enjoyment of these opportunities. This view highlights the role of dynamics of knowledge base complexity as an important ‘cognitive’ barrier for building innovation capabilities in endowed countries. This study is based on the extension of a ‘Sectoral Innovation Systems’ approach, highlighting the role of technological regimes in catch-up possibilities and strategies. Knowledge base complexity is explored as an under-researched element of technological regimes. The research contributes in three ways. First, it introduces a dynamic and three-dimensional view of knowledge base complexity at the conceptual level, and hypothesizes its implication for patterns of innovation and catch-up processes. Second, a quantitative methodology is developed to examine the proposed hypotheses. Third, the conceptual and methodological suggestions are empirically examined in the context of upstream petroleum industry. The findings propose that the sector has gone through phases of transformation and reconfiguration. The sector’s technological regime over the most recent period experienced high opportunities combined with rising systemic complexity of the knowledge base. We show that this trend in technological regimes is associated with shift of the sector from Schumpeter Mark I to II and with the emergence of major Integrated Service Companies as new system integrators coping with rising systemic complexity. We also observe that rising systemic complexity is associated with slow down and halt of geographical dispersion of innovation. The sector-wide cumulativeness stemming from systemic complexity creates high cognitive barriers to entry for latecomers. The very scarce examples of catch-up in a few advanced oil producing countries suggest that high innovation opportunities in complex industries are open mostly to countries with both advanced national innovation systems and accumulated production experience. For latecomer countries to benefit, their industrial policy needs to cope with increasing systemic complexity, mitigating its coordination costs and facilitating the integration of distributed catch-up processes. This highlights the key role of ‘late comer systems integrators’ for successful catch-up.