Coffea arabica is a species with far-reaching impacts on the global economy. Nevertheless, climate-related challenges threaten the coffee industry at its source: its growing regions. The coffee industry is a significant economic driver in Guatemala, but farmers are increasingly reporting losses in crop yield and arable land due to climate-related challenges. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) can be employed to make predictions about the current and future suitability of regions for a species by identifying significant biotic or abiotic indicators. An ENM was used to project suitable land into the future using climate change projection models known as representative concentration pathways (RCPs), for the coffee plant and a number of other species. Due to the potential of shade trees to lessen heat stress on coffee plants, common shade trees for the region were modeled. Additionally, a fungus species responsible for detrimental coffee leaf rust was modeled. Results of these models indicated potential for substantial climate-related habitat losses for the coffee plant in the coming decades. Examination of model predictions allow for greater understanding of the climate-related variables affecting the ecology of the coffee plant, and the potential risks to the industry, in a changing climate. Additionally, ENM models for coffee rust and shade trees can help Guatemalan farmers make informed decisions about farm management.

The ambition of this thesis is to fulfill two aims. The first aim is theory development, by presenting a theoretical framework where climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) are combined. The second aim is empirical, where the theoretical framework is used to analyze an example of DRR with an ambition to include CCA. An integrated approach is beneficial for the achievement of sustainable development and for strengthening resilience to hazards (Schipper 2009; Mitchell et al 2010). However, the two fields largely operate in separate which can cause reversed development outcomes and hamper the overall objectives of both DRR and CCA. The ambition of this thesis is hence to investigate to what extent the approach is used within humanitarian aid organizations today, with a specific focus on the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The method used is a qualitative content analysis of the “Integrated Flood Resilience Programme” in Bangladesh (IFRP) conducted by the IFRC. The main finding of the study suggests a surprising progress of including CCA and climate change as components within DRR. However, there are still core aspects of an integrated approach missing in the project. For instance, there is no inclusion of an environmental risk assessment or alignment with climate frameworks, except for parts of the Sustainable Development Goals. Moreover, the efforts associated with CCA are perceived unspecific in comparison to other parts of the project. This thesis therefore reaffirms some of the conclusions made by other scholars (e.g. Mitchell et al 2010; Schipper 2009: Thomalla et al 2006; Hammond 2017), implying that DRR and CCA still mostly operate separately.

This study examines communication about global warming with an emphasis on encouraging a change in a viewers behavior, and how this can be practically visualised on websites. The study first gathers research from the fields of climate change communication, marketing and psychology, then a survey is sent out and an overview of websites about global warming is made. The findings from all this is then applied to a Hi-fi prototype of a website. The study aims to answer the question: How could visualized messages and information about global warming encourage change in a viewer’s behavior? User tests of the finished prototype gave mixed results. The results suggest that the site succeeded in creating a positive tone and emotional impact, but were not as successful at encouraging change and raising perceived self-efficacy. It may have been successful at encouraging hopefulness, and informing, but it is a bit unclear due to contradicting results from quantitative personal ratings and qualitative interview answers. / <p>Examensarbetet är utfört vid Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap (ITN) vid Tekniska fakulteten, Linköpings universitet</p>

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Climate change will likely have impacts on disease vector distribution. Posing a significant health threat in the 21st century, risk of tick-borne diseases may increase with higher annual mean temperatures and changes in precipitation. We modeled the current and future potential distribution of the Ixodes ricinus tick species in Europe. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) was utilized to predict potential distributions of I. ricinus based on current (1990-2010 averages) and future (2040-2060 averages) environmental variables. A ten model best subset was created out of a possible 200 models based on omission and commission criteria. Our results show that under the A2 climate change scenario the potential habitat range for the I. ricinus tick in Europe will expand into higher elevations and latitudes (e.g., Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Belarus), while contracting in other areas (e.g., Alps, Pyrenees, interior Italy, and northwestern Poland). Overall, a potential habitat expansion of 3.8% in all of Europe is possible. Our results may be used to inform climate change adaptation efforts in Europe.

Migration induced by the impacts of climate change is a complex phenomenon that consists of various concepts. It also consists of various perspectives about the cause and the effects of such migration. Regardless of these debates, however, some atoll island nations are under a threat of disappearance due the impacts of climate change, especially the rising sea levels. Migration remains the only option for these island nations. Consequently, there are numerous perspectives on how to address the arising problems due to such migration. By utilizing argumentative discourse analysis, this thesis identifies three dominant discourses that address these consequences of climate change induced migration and explores the island nation of Kiribati, although seemingly follows the lead of these dominant discourses, manages to shape and transform the discourses for the best interest of the Island Nation.

In most of the developing countries, small scale farmers (SSFs) are usually the primary agricultural producers of staple crop. Furthermore, they highly depend on rainfall for their rain-fed agricultural production. SSFs have limited capacity to adapt to extreme climate variability, thus rendering them to be among the most vulnerable to climate change. Some recent studies show that agricultural production and productivity is being negatively impacted by climate change and variability in most parts of Southern Africa. This is likely to continue for decades into the future, unless corrective or adaptation measures are implemented to reduce the impact on agriculture. Conservation Agriculture (CA) is one of the climate change and weather variability adaptation measures being promoted for SSFs in Kalomo District of Zambia. CA is not only being promoted to improve production and productivity for food security for the majority rural population, but also as an adaptation measure for sustainable agricultural production. The present study analysed the CA practices being promoted in Kalomo district of southern Zambia and the associated challenges in the management and implementation, as well as, how best these challenges can be addressed. Semi-structured interviews and literature review were used as methodologies of data collection for the study. The findings of the study indicate that among the three principles of CA, minimum tillage is mostly practiced compared to crop rotation and retention of crop residue. Within minimum tillage, ripping was found to be practiced on a larger scale compared to making basins. The major challenges include planning and human resource development, financial resource and policy constraints and cultural barriers to adoption of CA.

abstract: To improve the resilience of complex, interdependent infrastructures, we need to better understand the institutions that manage infrastructures and the work that they do. This research demonstrates that a key aspect of infrastructure resilience is the adequate institutional management of infrastructures. This research analyzes the institutional dimension of infrastructure resilience using sociotechnical systems theory and, further, investigates the critical role of institutions for infrastructure resilience using a thorough analysis of water and energy systems in Arizona. Infrastructure is not static, but dynamic. Institutions play a significant role in designing, building, maintaining, and upgrading dynamic infrastructures. Institutions create the appearance of infrastructure stability while dynamically changing infrastructures over time, which is resilience work. The resilience work of different institutions and organizations sustains, recovers, adapts, reconfigures, and transforms the physical structure on short, medium, and long temporal scales. To better understand and analyze the dynamics of sociotechnical infrastructure resilience, this research examines several case studies. The first is the social and institutional arrangements for the allocation of resources from Hoover Dam. This research uses an institutional analysis framework and draws on the institutional landscape of water and energy systems in Arizona. In particular, this research illustrates how institutions contribute to differing resilience work at temporal scales while fabricating three types of institutional threads: lateral, vertical, and longitudinal threads. This research also highlights the importance of institutional interdependence as a critical challenge for improving infrastructure resilience. Institutional changes in one system can disrupt other systems’ performance. The research examines this through case studies that explore how changes to water governance impact the energy system in Arizona. Groundwater regulations affect the operation of thermoelectric power plants which withdraw groundwater for cooling. Generation turbines, droughts, and water governance are all intertwined via institutions in Arizona. This research, finally, expands and applies the interdependence perspective to a case study of forest management in Arizona. In a nutshell, the perilous combination of chronic droughts and the engineering resilience perspective jeopardizes urban water and energy systems. Wildfires caused by dense forests have legitimized an institutional transition, from thickening forests to thinning trees in Arizona. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Environmental Social Science 2019

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第18565号 / 工博第3926号 / 新制||工||1603(附属図書館) / 31465 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 寶 馨, 教授 堀 智晴, 准教授 KIM Sunmin / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

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