Este trabalho tem por proposta analisar a credibilidade da política monetária brasileira. O período verificado pelo trabalho é a partir de outubro de 1997 a dezembro de 2007, marcado principalmente por políticas antiinflacionárias e por dificuldades externas. Particularmente, busca verificar se houve ou não credibilidade neste período. Para tanto, é utilizado instrumental econométrico, via modelo autorregressivo com variáveis dummies. São feitos também testes necessários à detecção de correlação serial. Considera-se que há credibilidade quando se têm resultados nos quais a variável desemprego gera impactos negativos sobre o diferencial de taxa de juros entre Brasil e EUA. Os resultados da regressão do modelo mostram uma medida válida para a questão da credibilidade da política monetária no caso brasileiro. / This research has for proposal to analyze the credibility of Brazilian monetary policy. The verified period is between October/1997 and December/2007, manly characterized by anti-inflationary policies and external difficulties. Specifically, this research proposes to verify if there was or not credibility on the period. For that, it is used an econometric instrumental, by an autoregressive model with dummie variables. The necessary tests for the detection of serial correlation were made. Credibility exists when the unemployment variable generates negative impacts on the interest rate differentials between Brazil and USA. The results of model’s regression show a valid measurement to Brazilian monetary policy credibility.

Devido ao uso crescente de Forward Guidance (FG) pelo mundo e pelo Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), essa tese se dedica a estudar a aplicabilidade dessas medidas para o Brasil. No primeiro estudo, reunimos a literatura sobre o assunto e verificamos que apenas a versão quantitativa do Forward Guidance é recomendada, pelos ganhos institucionais e pela capacidade de evitar mau entendimento sobre a condicionalidade das previsões. Contudo, a versão qualitativa, a mesma que foi empregada pelo BCB, não é recomendada por não trazer os benefícios institucionais e estar mais sujeita às críticas de não condicionalidade das projeções e sobreposição da análise do Banco Central sobre o mercado. Destacamos que na literatura empírica não é claro que há um ganho de eficiência através de aumento da previsibilidade das ações da autoridade monetária com o uso do FG. Adicionalmente, podemos perceber, ao avaliar o comportamento das expectativas de mercado no período, que a autoridade monetária passou a usar FG, que o mercado seguiu as instruções mesmo na presença de choques inflacionários, mas alterando sua avaliação sobre a meta implícita de inflação, ou seja, o mercado acreditou que era uma projeção incondicional. Já no segundo estudo, através de análise fatorial, decompomos baseado na técnica de Gürkaynak, Sack e Swanson (2005), em componentes não observáveis a reação da curva de juros curta após a divulgação do comunicado do Copom Encontramos dois fatores não observáveis ortogonais, o que significa dizer que o mercado brasileiro, além de captar a mensagem sobre a taxa de juros corrente e seus desdobramentos sobre a curva de juros, existe outro componente que reflete a reação à comunicação, mas que interfere na trajetória da taxa de juros não relacionada à mudança na taxa de juros corrente. Ao regredir esses componentes contra a expectativa de inflação, percebemos que na Gestão de Henrique Meirelles, a autoridade afetava as expectativas de inflação aumentando o nível de informação do mercado e tinha capacidade de se comunicar e ser compreendido. Já na Gestão de Alexandre Tombini, perdese a capacidade de movimentar as expectativas de inflação com comunicação e a taxa de juros corrente passa a ser a única forma de reduzir as expectativas inflacionárias dos agentes. Por fim, no terceiro estudo, implementamos os choques antecipados de política monetária em um modelo DSGE de pequena economia aberta, a fim de medir o efeito de Forward Guidance na economia caso fosse feito com total credibilidade. Verificamos que a medida é muito poderosa caso implementada de maneira crível. Também podemos verificar, ao comparar com um anúncio não crível, que a trajetória esperada da taxa de juros exerce um papel importante sobre a economia e que a credibilidade em um processo de estabilização macroeconômica é fundamental. Em resumo, encontramos evidências de que a experiência do FG brasileiro não apresentou os resultados desejados e a sua utilização não é recomendada, seja porque é uma medida que traz poucos benefícios e muitos riscos, seja porque temos evidências de que a autoridade não consegue manejar as expectativas de inflação com comunicação Contudo, caso o BCB recupere essa capacidade, como no passado, entendemos que os impactos de anúncios que surpreendessem a curva de juros seriam elevados. Ainda, nosso estudo reforça a análise de Woodford (2005) de que a compreensão do mercado acerca dos planos da autoridade monetária é chave para que a política monetária ganhe eficiência. Por isso, ter credibilidade é algo extremamente importante e quando se quer estabilizar uma economia deve-se buscar essa qualidade o quanto antes. Por fim, podemos inferir que a política monetária atualmente perdeu parte da sua eficácia, uma vez que os agentes não apreçam a taxa de juros necessária para colocar a inflação na meta e, como veremos no terceiro artigo, é importante que a trajetória esperada seja idêntica ao plano do Banco Central. / Due to the increasing use of Forward Guidance (FG) the world and the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB), this thesis is devoted to studying the applicability of these measures to Brazil. In the first study, we gathered the literature on the subject and found that only quantitative version of Forward Guidance is recommended by institutional gains and the ability to avoid misunderstanding about the conditionality of forecasts. However, the qualitative version, the same as that employed by the BCB, is not recommended for bringing institutional benefits and be more subject to criticism from non-compliance of the projections and overlapping of the Central Bank analysis of the market. We emphasize that the empirical literature is not clear that there is a gain in efficiency by increasing the predictability of the actions of the monetary authority using the FG. Additionally, we can see, to evaluate the behavior of market expectations for the period, the monetary authority started using FG, the market followed the same instructions in the presence of inflationary shocks, but changing its assessment of the implicit inflation target, or words, the market believed it was an unconditional projection. In the second study, through factor analysis, based on factored Gürkaynak technique, Sack, and Swanson (2005), on unobservable components the reaction of short yield curve after the announcement of the release of the Monetary Policy Committee We found two unobservable factors orthogonal, which means that the Brazilian market, and get the message about the current interest rate and its consequences on the yield curve, there is another component that reflects the response to the communication, but it interferes with trajectory of interest rates unrelated to changes in the interest rate. To regrow these components against the expectation of inflation, we realized that in Henrique Meirelles Management, the authority affected inflation expectations increasing market information level and was able to communicate and be understood. In the Alexandre Tombini Management, you lose the ability to move inflation expectations with communication and the interest rate becomes the only way to reduce inflationary expectations of agents. Finally, the third study, we implemented the anticipated shocks of monetary policy in a DSGE model of small open economy, in order to measure the effect of Forward Guidance on the economy if it were done with full credibility. We found that the measure is very powerful if implemented credibly. We can also verify by comparing with a non-credible announcement, the expected path of interest rates plays an important role on the economy and the credibility in a macroeconomic stabilization process is critical. In summary, we found evidence that the Brazilian FG experience did not produce the desired results and its use is not recommended either because it is a measure that brings few benefits and many risks, either because we have evidence that the authority cannot handle the inflation expectations with communication However, if the BCB recover this capacity, as in the past, we believe that the impact of ads that surprises the yield curve would be high. Still, our study reinforces the analysis of Woodford (2005) that the understanding of the market about the monetary authority plans is key for monetary policy to gain efficiency. So have credibility is extremely important and when you want to stabilize an economy should be sought that status as soon as possible. Finally, we can infer that monetary policy currently lost some of its effectiveness, since the agents do not correctly price the interest rate required to bring inflation on target and, as we shall see in the third article, it is important that the expected trajectory is identical Central Bank's plan to.

In this work we summarize the various techniques of claims reserves evaluating which consist in estimate of the future uncertain and hardly antici- pated loss development. It appears that the methods which are based on some credibility formula bring in the mean squared error sense the most accurate results. We consider this in the text derived conclusion very relevant and con- tributing, therefore we illustrate and present it on the numerical example. The calculations are introduced in the attached charts that build the important sup- plement of the text. The topic of this work follows up the content of Nonlife Insurance and Risk Theory lectures, therefore this text can be useful also for the students of the Faculty of Mathematics and Physics to extend their knowledge. 1

Följande studies syfte är att undersöka elevers perspektiv på lärarens trovärdighet vid betyg och bedömning i Idrott och Hälsa. Vidare genomsyras studien av Hirdmans (2003) genusteori i syfte att studera huruvida genus påverkar elevernas syn på lärarens trovärdighet. Studien bygger på kvalitativa data där empirin insamlades med hjälp av fokusgruppsintervjuer från elever som går i årskurs 9 på grundskolan. Sammanlagt bestod empirin av fyra könshomogena fokusgrupper (totalt 16 elever) varav två grupper bestod av flickor och två bestod av pojkar. Vid analys av resultatet uppkom tre kategorier som påverkar lärarens trovärdighet vid betyg och bedömning, dessa är Profilering, Arbetsmetod och Genus. Resultatet visar att läraren i Idrott och Hälsa brister i likvärdighet vid betyg och bedömning på grund av lärarens egna föreställning av genus. Idrottsundervisningens icke-likvärdiga villkor för flickor och pojkar samt ämnets påverkan av lärarens subjektivitet blir centrala komponenter för elevers syn på lärarens trovärdighet. Studiens slutsats blir därmed att trovärdigheten är i ett beroendeförhållande till såväl likvärdighet som med lärarens subjektivitet och där genus har en central roll för i vilken utsträckning trovärdighet kan uppnås vid betyg och bedömning. / The aim of this study has been to examine student’s perception of physical education teacher’s credibility regarding grading and assessment. Furthermore, the study is permeated by Hirdman´s (2003) gender theory, in order to examine whether gender orders affects the students view of teacher credibility. The study is based on a qualitative method, where the empirical data was collected by using focus group interviews. In total four gender homogeneous groups (16 students) were interviewed, whereof two of them were girls and two were boys.During the analysis of the results three main categories aroused which affects students view of teacher credibility, those categories are Profiling, Working methods and Gender. The results also show that the PE teacher lack of credibility regarding grading and assessment is affected by his or her conception of gender and how it´s expressed in the teaching environment. The physical educations non-equivalent terms for girls and boys together with the teacher’s subjectivity becomes two central components regarding the students view of teacher credibility. The study's conclusion is thereby that teacher credibility is in an interdependence with both equality and teacher subjectivity where gender has a significant role in the extent to which credibility can be achieved.

One way internet users determine the quality of a website is to look for so called 'credibility factors'. These factors can either be positive: the presence of a date, reference list, independent site certification; or negative: the presence of advertisements or broken links. This thesis investigates what role such factors play in the effectiveness of two e-health interventions. An e-health intervention is a health related website designed to change a person’s behaviour. Until now research into credibility has been largely theoretical. Studies have relied on subjective outcome measures such as Likert scales, website content recall, expressions of preference and self reported behaviour. This thesis describes two studies, the second of which investigates, for the first time, whether surface credibility manipulations change objective behavioural outcomes. Surface credibility is how much a perceiver believes a website on simple inspection. Based on a comprehensive literature review of credibility research, the following credibility factors were explored: presence of advertising, recognisable logos, contact details, physical address, references, third party certification, currency information, privacy statement, HTTPS encryption, top level domain and presence of a broken link. The first study involved the assembly of an exercise promotion website. Participants were randomised to receive the site modified to contain either factors heightening credibility or those lowering credibility. Participants using the high credibility version spent twice as long browsing the site as those using the low credibility version. There was no effect on attitude to exercise or self reported physical activity. The second study used the same methodology but with a website targeting an objectively measurable health behaviour (registration as an organ donor). In this study 889 university students were exposed to a website promoting organ donation. Information on the site was assembled based on theoretical domain interviewing and current research into organ donation interventions. 336 (37.79%) participants registered through the study website. The study detected no significant difference in registration rates between high and low credibility versions of the site. Of the 17 comments left on the low credibility site, only 3 were credibility related criticisms. It is the finding of this thesis that university students are willing to submit personal information and place trust in a website contravening many current credibility guidelines. Future studies into credibility are needed to explore why this is the case. One possibility is that the website was trusted simply because it was part of a research study. Another possibility is that the high quality of the textual content compensated for the lack of credibility of the site itself. It is the recommendation of this thesis that future studies focus on objective behavioural outcome measures and control for other forms of credibility such as participation in a research study.

O objetivo da presente tese consiste na determinação de novas estruturas de governança capazes de fornecer os incentivos e controles necessários para a sustentação de estratégias de diferenciação de produto na cadeia produtiva de frutas, legumes e verduras frescos (FLV), focalizando o papel do varejo moderno na definição e adoção de padrões e classificações privados que visam aumentar a coordenação vertical da cadeia. A tese mostrará que as novas estratégias adotadas pelo varejo moderno utilizam como mecanismo de coordenação das transações com produtores e consumidores a criação de padrões privados próprios, que têm como objetivo principal informar a qualidade desejada dos produtos comercializados aos produtores e, ao mesmo tempo, atender às exigências de qualidade do consumidor. Novas estruturas de governança surgem buscando sustentar tais transações. A conjunção de mecanismos de sinalização, credibilidade e o efeito reputação constituem o fator chave para a efetividade do padrão privado como mecanismo de coordenação ao longo da cadeia. / The thesis’ objective consists in the determination of new governance structures capable of providing the necessary incentives and controls to the maintenance of product’s differentiation strategies in the fresh fruits and vegetables (FFV) productive chain, focusing the role of the modern retailers in the definition and adoption of private standards and classifications that intend to increase the chain’s vertical coordination. The thesis will show that the new strategies adopted by the modern retailers use the creation of private standards as a coordination mechanism of the transactions with producers and consumers, under the main objective of providing information to the producers about the commercialized products’ desirable quality and, simultaneously, fill up the consumer’s quality demands. New governance structures arise in the search of sustain to these transactions. The conjunction of signalizing mechanisms, credibility and reputation effect is the key factor to the effectiveness of the private standards as a coordination mechanism along the chain.

<p>Predmet istraživanja ovog rada su mere neodređenosti, posebno mera<br />kredibliteta, kao i mogućnost njihove primene u aktuarstvu. U cilju<br />generalizacije teorije kredibiliteta, uvedena je nova mera, nazvana mera c-<br />kredibiliteta. Mera c-kredibiliteta na X je skupovna funkcija takva da su<br />zadovoljene osobine normalnosti, monotonosti, samodualnosti i maksimalnosti.<br />Za nju su dokazane neke osobine kao što su npr. subaditivnost i<br />poluneprekidnost. Nadalje, definisan je integral zasnovan na meri c-<br />kredibiliteta, a navedena su i dokazana određena svojstva. Nova mera je uvedena<br />i u fazi okruženju kao agregirana vrednost mera mogućnosti i neophodnosti.</p> / <p>This thesis studies uncertainty measures, especially credibility measure, as well as<br />the possibility of their application in actuaries. In order to generalize credibility theory,<br />a new fuzzy measure is proposed, called c &minus; credibility measure. C &minus; credibility<br />measure on X is a set function that satisfies normality, monotonicity, self-duality and<br />maximality. Certain properties of the c&minus;credibility measure are proved, such as, for<br />example, subadditivity and semicontinuity. Furthermore, an integral based on this<br />measure is defined, in analogy to the existing integrals, and its properties are proved.<br />Then, the credibility measure in a fuzzy environment is introduced as the aggregate<br />value of the possibility and necessity measures.</p>

This study establishes a link between research done in the field of public relations on source credibility, communicator gender, message strength, and source affiliation. Research has established that source credibility is one of the most important factors influencing the acceptance of a message. For this study, source credibility was measured using three main dimensions: expertise, trustworthiness and attractiveness. Similar to many studies focusing on source credibility, this study focuses on the various attributes of the communicator or message source. This study uses an experimental procedure to investigate the relationships between source credibility, message strength, source affiliation, and communicator gender. Based on previous findings, this study hypothesized that higher message strength will be perceived as more credible than lower message strength, sources labeled 'public relations practitioner' will be perceived as less credible than sources that are not, and male communicators will be seen as more credible than females. Findings indicate, however, that message strength has no significant influence on source credibility. Nor does it significantly influence the opinions of the participants on the communicator's gender and their affiliation with the term public relations practitioner, except in the case of their levels of expertise. The results however did indicate that there are statistically significant interactions between the trustworthiness and attractiveness of the source and the attitudes of the participants toward the public relations message, the corporation and their subsequent behavioral intentions.

Recently, the use of corporate social responsibility initiatives has grown in popularity and prominence among organizations as research increasingly suggests that these initiatives positively impact the corporation's bottom line. This study contributes to theory driven research in strategic communications by using an experimental design to test the influence of six distinct corporate social responsibility initiatives, as identified by Kotler and Lee (2005), on the beliefs, attitudes, and behavioral intention of message receivers, using Fishbein and Ajzen's (1975, 2005) theory of reasoned action as a theoretical framework. According to Fishbein and Ajzen (1975), attitudes about an object are the result of the total of many varying beliefs about the object. This study extends understanding of the Dual Credibility Model by examining the influence of corporate credibility as a belief set and mediator between organizations and their target publics. This study is uniquely focused on developing a better understanding of how corporate social responsibility initiatives influence corporate credibility and corporate social responsibility beliefs. Findings do not indicate significant differences among corporate social responsibility initiatives. Only significant differences between using and not using an initiative were found. However, among the initiatives cause related marketing demonstrated the highest mean score, although not a significant difference. CSR initiatives do influence belief sets, specifically CSR beliefs. The corporate credibility/ trust belief set showed the strongest positive influence on attitude toward the advertisement and attitude toward the organization. Attitude towards the organization demonstrated a significant influence on behavioral intention toward the organization. These results support the theory of reasoned action. Exploratory research found that corporate credibility/trust and corporate credibility/expertise directly and significantly influenced behavioral intention toward the organization, suggesting an extension of the theory within the context of corporate credibility.

This study was designed to examine the impact of different levels of reporting frequency (periodic versus continuous) of financial information, both with and without assurance, on individual investors in a stock price prediction task. Reporting was manipulated at two levels: periodic and continuous. Assurance was manipulated at two levels: no assurance and with assurance. In addition, a base level condition was included. The experiment was designed to collect data regarding both the investors' performance and their perceptions. Period one of the experiment consisted of the base level condition for all participants. Independent variable manipulation was implemented in period two, using a 2 X 2 design. The results indicated that the main effect of Assurance was significant with regard to the number of times participants correctly predicted the change in stock price direction (PREDICTION). The results of the analysis also indicated that the interaction of Reporting and Assurance was significant with regard to the number of times participants made stock price change predictions in accordance with an expectation of mean-reverting stock prices (TRACKING). Post hoc analysis on TRACKING indicated that increased levels of reporting frequency and assurance could adversely affect the quality of individual investors' investment decisions. The results indicated that increased levels of reporting and assurance were not significant with regard to individual investors' perception of source credibility, information relevance or information value. Post hoc analysis provided some evidence that increased levels of reporting frequency may lead to an increase in the perceived trustworthiness of the source of the information and investors may be willing to pay more for the stock of a company that provided increased levels of reporting of fundamental financial data.