Thesis (M.M. (Research))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Governance, 2016. / Most economies today are calling upon their or rather are starting to rely on their Small and Medium business Enterprises to stimulate the economy and also help address issues of unemployment. However it is also believed that even though this maybe the case, most economies still don’t give SMEs enough funding. The underlying public assumption is that all that is needed for SMEs to thrive is access to funding, as such this study sought to investigate the role of financial access in the success of SMEs. The study had intended to use financial ratios as proxies for success, however, the record keeping of the SMEs or lack thereof impeded this intention, so the study measured the success of the enterprise as perceived by the owner. The study sampled SMEs from all for regions of Swaziland, and besides a descriptive analysis that were carried out to examine the utilization of credit by the SMEs. This study also used a statistical model known as the Logit model, to determine the effect that credit access had on the success of the SME and also assess the challenges/barriers that the SMEs faced when trying to access funding. The results of this study deviated from the underlying public assumption, as they showed that an SME owner that had access to funding had reduced odds of success, if anything the results showed that the success of an SME did not entirely depend on the availability of funding, and there were other potent factors that posed as barriers to financial access. / DM2016

Historically, credit market conditions have been shown to impact economic activity, at times severely. For instance, in the late 2000s, the United States experienced a financial crisis that seized domestic and foreign credit markets. The ensuing lack of access to credit brought about a steep decline in output and a sluggish recovery. Accordingly, policymakers commonly take steps to mitigate the effects of adverse credit market conditions and, at times, conduct unconventional monetary policy once traditional policy tools become ineffective. This dissertation is a collection of essays regarding monetary policy, the flow of credit, financial crises, and the macroeconomy. Specifically, I describe monetary policy’s impact on the allocation of credit in the U.S. and analyze the role of upstream and downstream credit conditions and financial crises on international trade in a global supply chain. The first chapter assesses the impact of monetary policy shocks on credit reallocation and evaluates the importance of theoretical transmission mechanisms. Compustat data covering 1974 through 2017 is used to compute quarterly measures of credit flows. I find that expansionary monetary policy is associated with positive long-term credit creation and credit reallocation. These impacts are larger for long-term credit and for credit of financially constrained firms and firms that are perceived as risky to the lender. This is predicted by the balance sheet channel of monetary policy and mechanisms that reduce lenders’ risk perceptions and increase the tendency to search for yield. Furthermore, I find that, on average, the largest increases in credit creation resulting from monetary expansion are to firms that exhibit relatively low investment efficiency. These estimation results suggest that expansionary monetary policy may have a negative impact on future economic growth. The second chapter evaluates the quantitative effects of unconventional monetary policy in the late 2000s and early 2010s. This was a period when the traditional monetary policy tool (the federal funds rate) was constrained by the zero lower bound. We compute credit flow measures using Compustat data, and we employ a factor augmented vector autoregression to analyze unconventional monetary policy’s impact on the allocation of credit during the zero lower bound period. By employing policy counterfactuals, we find that unconventional monetary policy has a positive and simultaneous impact on credit creation and credit destruction and these impacts are larger in long-term credit markets. Applying this technique to analyze the flows of financially constrained and non-financially constrained borrowing firms, we find that unconventional monetary policy operates through the easing of collateral constraints because these effects are larger for small firms or those with high default probabilities. During the zero lower bound period, we also find that unconventional monetary policy brings about increases in credit creation for firms of relatively high investment efficiency. The third chapter pertains to the global trade collapse of the late 2000s. This collapse was due, in part, to strained credit markets and the vulnerability of exporters to adverse credit market conditions. The chapter evaluates the impact of upstream and downstream credit conditions and the differential effects of financial crises on bilateral trade. I find that upstream and downstream sectors’ needs for external financing is negatively associated with trade flows when the exporting or importing country’s cost of credit is high. However, I find that this effect is dampened for downstream sectors. I also find that downstream sectors’ value of collateral is positively associated with trade when the cost of credit is high in the importing country. High downstream trade credit dependence coupled with high costs of credit in the importing country also cause declines in imports. There are amplifying effects of credit costs for sectors that are highly dependent on external financing when the importing or exporting country is in financial crisis. Further, the magnitude is larger when the exporting country is in financial crisis. Finally, I find that these effects on trade flows are large when the exporting country is a developed economy, but they are muted for developing economies.

Access to consumer credit as a means of building wealth is one of the least examined forms of social inequality. The recent economic crisis in the United States has brought attention to the significance of consumer credit in our nation's economy; however, less understood are the specific obstacles and barriers that prevent low-income individuals from reaching the "American Dream." In an exploratory manner, this study compared credit access, credit literacy, and credit experience of low-income Latinos and non-Latinos to understand how credit might translate into asset-building and home ownership for Latinos, particular for those in new immigrant destinations where access to ethnic resources is limited. Using survey data on banking practices, credit accounts, and asset ownership gathered from English- and Spanish-speaking residents in northern Utah between 2007 and 2009, this research found that low-income Latino residents are not in the same position to establish credit compared to their low-income non-Latino neighbors. As expected, Latinos in my study have less actively sought credit cards, auto loans, and other forms of debt than non-Latinos. As a consequence their credit literacy and experience is limited. Half of the Latinos in this study are not financially embedded and operate mainly outside the credit economy. Surprisingly, this study revealed that having a bank account does not necessarily change one's financial behavior; in contrast to their native-born neighbors, even Latinos with bank accounts habitually paid bills with cash and/or money orders. Lacking access to and an understanding of credit remains a critical problem for most Latino immigrants, and unless changed such practices are likely to affect their wealth-building potential for years to come. Ironically, choices to remain outside of the credit economy may have spared many immigrants from the kind of financial losses suffered by "financially embedded" individuals during the recent recession. Credit can enable families to purchase assets such as a home that enable them to accumulate wealth. On the other hand, problems with credit can lead to overspending, reliance on credit, bankruptcy, and foreclosure. More research is needed to understand the dynamics of credit and inequality for both Latinos and non-Latinos alike.

This study investigated the level of financial satisfaction of the family money manager in relation to socioeconomic characteristics, attitudes towards credit, and credit practices. The population was members of the USU Community Credit Union. Data were collected with a mail survey questionnaire from a random sample of 500 subjects. After multiple follow-up attempts, the response rate was 55.2 percent. The dependent variable was financial satisfaction; the independent variables were categorized into three groups: socioeconomic characteristics, credit attitudes, and credit practices. The conceptual model of this study hypothesized that there is a relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Age, education, home value, household income, and savings were positively related to financial satisfaction. Those who felt comfortable with larger amounts of credit payment were associated with higher income levels and higher satisfaction levels. People with favorable attitudes toward borrowing money to pay for houses were more likely to be satisfied with their financial conditions. Convenience credit card users were more satisfied than installment users. Higher debt repayment-to-income ratios were associated with lower levels of financial satisfaction. Respondents' feeling about their credit obligations was the most powerful predictor of financial satisfaction; people who were concerned about their credit obligations were likely to be less satisfied with their financial situations that those who were not. Concern over credit obligations was not highly related to socioeconomic characteristics or debt repayment-to- income ratio. Accordingly, the subjective assessment of credit obligations was more important in explaining financial satisfaction than the objective measurement of family debt burden such as debt repayment-to-income ratio. Fifty-two percent of the variation in financial satisfaction was accounted for by socioeconomic characteristics, credit attitudes, and credit practices. Credit practices were more powerful predictors of financial satisfaction than socioeconomic characteristics. This result illustrates the importance of credit management as a contributing factor in financial satisfaction.

[pt] Este trabalho visa analisar os modelos atuais de avaliação de risco de crédito aplicados a empresas não-financeiras e desenvolver um modelo estatístico com o emprego da ferramenta LOGIT - Regressão Logística com base nos clientes jurídicos de uma empresa do ramo industrial. Este modelo tem como objetivo principal determinar a probabilidade de um cliente ser considerado como adimplente ou inadimplente. Com esta ferramenta o analista de crédito pode definir até que ponto se torna interessante para a empresa efetuar uma venda a prazo para o cliente. / [en] This dissertation has the objective of analyzing the current models of credit risk in non financial companies and to develop a statistical model with Logistic Regression. The main purpose of this model is to determine the probability of a client (business company) being considered a good or bad risk. This model will allow the credit analyst to measure the credit risk involved with credit sales.

臺灣地區於民國９４年底發生的雙卡風暴（信用卡與現金卡），讓臺灣全體發卡銀行，於民國９５年度打銷信用卡及現金卡呆帳共新台幣1,629億元，造成發生當年本國銀行近新台幣74億元的虧損。這就是臺灣的銀行業一窩蜂轉向高獲利的消費金融業務時，完全忽略了信用風險管理。未建立並落實良好的信用風險管理機制，導致信用危機發生時，完全失控，讓銀行產生嚴重虧損。當年的雙卡風暴，令許多民營銀行的經營控制權讓手外資投資機構，或為其他銀行所併購。 　　本論文以信用卡發卡業務為例，探討信用風險管理之貸後管理(Portfolio Management)方法，協助銀行降低信用風險損失成本，提升獲利；透過對實務信用風險管理之精進，降低信用風暴產生時的衝擊。 　　透過本研究之個案證實，經營信用卡業務之金融機構，若能持有一套良善的信用風險貸後管理，當信用危機發生時，可以有效地控制信用風險損失的增加。以本研究為例，雙卡風暴發生時，全體本國銀行的年化信用風險損失率上升12.41%，但擁有良善信用風險管理的個案銀行的年化信用風險損失率僅增加9.04%，差異高達3.37%，再透過作業成本的降低，可使信用卡的淨資產報酬率相差達５％左右。因此，經營無擔保消費者貸款的金融機構，要維持競爭優勢，一定要了解並落實信用風險管理工作，尤其是貸後管理方面的作業，更是決定勝負之關鍵。 / A local credit crisis occurred in Taiwan from late 2005 to early 2007. During the crisis, the total credit losses of Credit Cards and Cash Card were NT$ 162.9 billion for all cards issuers in Taiwan for Year 2006. This big loss made the Taiwanese banks having a negative net-income at NT$7.4billion for Year 2006. The root cause was from ignoring the credit risk management while Taiwanese banks kept growing the consumer lending business. And finally a few local banks were sold to the foreign banks because they couldn’t take such big loss from the capital requirement. The primary objective of this thesis is to research the portfolio management on the credit card business to find out how to build a good portfolio management working model in terms of credit risk management to help the credit card issuers to reduce the credit losses and increase the net-income, and also minimize the impact when the credit crisis happens. It has been proven that the credit card issuer with an excellent portfolio management on credit risk can reduce the credit loss increase compared with the others when the credit crisis is coming. For instance, the overall Taiwanese bank’s average loss rate in 2006 increased by 12.41% over 2005 but the bank loss rate only increased by 9.04% during that local credit crisis. Considering the lower operating cost of the bank, the ROA difference will be around 5%. Therefore, if any bank would like to do the consumer lending business, they must understand what risk management methods they should have and really work on them, especially for the portfolio management, so that they can maintain a good position to compete with the others.

<p>Purpose: To investigate whether or not the credit granters believe the quality in audits will deteriorate after the abolishment of statutory audit and, if that is the case, how the abolishment will strike the purpose and goal of accounting.</p><p>Approach: To answer our purpose we carried out a literature study to later implement interviews with four granters of credits specialised in business accounts.</p><p>Findings: The process of credit granting will not change after the abolishment of statutory audit for companies still using audit reports. Though, for other companies the process will change dramatically since the lean time of the process will increase. Higher demands will be put on these companies since the reliability in the economic information will decrease when it is no longer being reviewed in the same sense. Though, the credit granters believe that some form of substitute for audit will be demanded in order for the companies to be granted credits from the bank.</p>

<p>The new accounting standards IFRS and IAS was implemented in January 2005, the purpose was to harmonize accounting standards world wide. As a result of these new rules the real estate companies are allowed to appraise real estates assets at market value. It has long been debated whether this appraisal fulfils the requirements for relevance, reliability and comparability.</p><p>The paper attends to how banks control the information given by the real estate companies in the process of credit granting. As an introduction we describe the purpose of accounting and the problematic´s about appraisals with market values. Further on there is a discussion on which factors are taken into consideration when banks grant credits.</p><p>The study is built on interviews at three different commercial banks. At each bank one bank advisor was interviewed, the respondent were given specific questions and at the same time were free to speak openly about the subject.</p><p>In conclusion all banks focus on the real estates companies ability to repay the bank credits with revenues from the investment. With the focus on reimbursement banks will minimize the risk of credit losses and thereby decrease the risk of history repeating itself with new bank crisis. Besides the ability to repay credits banks also consider the fact’s, who is leading the company and how this owner has conduct prior businesses. In comparison whit theory and empirics all banks, in there credit granting process, fulfil the requirements for relevance, reliability and comparability. In summary the banks do not consider real estates valued at market prices as a problem in there assessments.</p>

<p>This thesis consists of five chapters.</p><p><b>Chapter 1 and 2 </b>The first chapter presents the introduction and the summary and the second chapter provides details on the survey and the data collection.</p><p>Chapter 3 The demand and supply of credit in the rural finance markets are investigated in this paper using data on 989 households, in Orissa, India. The aim is to study the effects of household, farm productive characteristics and the policy variables on the demand and supply of credit. A type 3 Tobit model is estimated which corrects for sample selection and endogeniety bias. In addition, a generalised Double Hurdle model is estimated where the household's access to credit is treated distinctly from decisions about the interest rate charged. The results from the type 3 tobit model suggest that the size of the operational holdings, net-wealth, the dependency ratio, educational level of the household and the wages and output prices are important determinants of the demand and supply of credit. The Double Hurdle model suggests the important result that the size of land owned plays a crucial role in whether the household obtains a loan or not.</p><p>Chapter 4 Based on the 'Rural Credit Market Survey of the Puri district in India', this paper investigates evidence on segmentation in the rural credit markets of Puri district. It further investigates the presence of any systematic association between the type of collateral offered by the household and the rate of interest at which it borrows. The data shows differences in the loan characteristics between the households borrowing from the formal and the informal sector. The empirical results confirm the presence of segmentation in the Puri credit market. For the households borrowing from the informal sector and the moneylenders, evidence also shows that the marketability of the collateral is inversely related to the interest rate. However, no such clear relationship is found for households borrowing from the formal sector.</p><p><b>Chapter 5 </b>In the theoretical and the empirical literature on rural credit markets it is widely assumed that the households are credit rationed in the formal sector, which offers subsidised credit. This view rests on the assumptions that all households have a positive demand for formal credit and that it is the cheaper source of credit. Three different models of formal credit rationing are estimated in this paper. The first model is a conventional credit-rationing model. The second model assumes that the probability to borrow from the formal sector is jointly determined by the demand for credit and the decision of the bank on access. Finally, the third model relaxes both these assumptions and the household chooses between borrowing from the formal or the informal sector. The results confirm that the access to the formal sector in the Puri rural credit markets is limited and that there exists a high demand for credit. This suggests a high degree of effective credit rationing by the formal sector in Puri. </p>

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2005