Frankfurt (Main), University, Thesis (doctoral), 2001.

In this thesis, efforts are devoted to the stochastic modeling, measurement and evaluation of credit risks, the development of mathematical and statistical tools to estimate and predict these risks, and methods for solving the significant computational problems arising in this context. The reduced-form intensity based credit risk models are studied. A new type of reduced-form intensity-based model is introduced, which can incorporate the impacts of both observable trigger events and economic environment on corporate defaults. The key idea of the model is to augment a Cox process with trigger events. In addition, this thesis focuses on the relationship between structural firm value model and reduced-form intensity based model. A continuous time structural asset value model for the asset value of two correlated firms with a two-dimensional Brownian motion is studied. With the incomplete information introduced, the information set available to the market participants includes the default time of each firm and the periodic asset value reports. The original structural model is first transformed into a reduced-form model. Then the conditional distribution of the default time as well as the asset value of each name are derived. The existence of the intensity processes of default times is proven and explicit form of intensity processes is given in this thesis. Discrete-time Markovian models in credit crisis are considered. Markovian models are proposed to capture the default correlation in a multi-sector economy. The main idea is to describe the infection (defaults) in various sectors by using an epidemic model. Green’s model, an epidemic model, is applied to characterize the infectious effect in each sector and dependence structures among various sectors are also proposed. The models are then applied to the computation of Crisis Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and Crisis Expected Shortfall (CES). The relationship between correlated defaults of different industrial sectors and business cycles as well as the impacts of business cycles on modeling and predicting correlated defaults is investigated using the Probabilistic Boolean Network (PBN). The idea is to model the credit default process by a PBN and the network structure can be inferred by using Markov chain theory and real-world data. A reduced-form model for economic and recorded default times is proposed and the probability distributions of these two default times are derived. The numerical study on the difference between these two shows that our proposed model can both capture the features and fit the empirical data. A simple and efficient method, based on the ordered default rate, is derived to compute the ordered default time distributions in both the homogeneous case and the two-group heterogeneous case under the interacting intensity default contagion model. Analytical expressions for the ordered default time distributions with recursive formulas for the coefficients are given, which makes the calculation fast and efficient in finding rates of basket CDSs. / published_or_final_version / Mathematics / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Dual credit, which allows students to simultaneously earn high school and college credit for the same course, is widely-implemented across the country. Dual credit is thought to promote student success in higher education. However, there is limited research on whether dual credit courses taken in high school positively influence college-level outcomes. Using Ordinary Least Squares and Logistic analysis to control for student background characteristics, this study examines the relationship between dual credit and student success in college, specifically freshman grade point average and college graduation. The study examines an existing dataset from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board that includes approximately 35,870 students. Results suggest that dual credit positively influences college outcomes. / text

Background: The financial crisis of 2007-2010 had a massive impact on the financial markets worldwide. The crisis was partly blamed on the credit derivatives collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps. These instruments were used to create leverage and speculation, which led to uncertainty in the financial system worldwide. There has been no recent documentation of how credit derivatives are used in Swedish banks, and what risks and opportunities they bring along. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to describe the use of credit derivatives in Swedish banks, what benefits and risks they may generate and how the recent financial crisis has affected their use. Research Method: This is a qualitative multiple case study which uses an inductive approach. The study covers four cases, three of the largest Swedish commercial banks, and a bank that specializes on international financing. Seven people working in different fields in these banks have been interviewed. Conclusions: Credit derivatives are mostly used for hedging in Swedish banks, which mainly involves the use of credit default swaps, and sometimes iTraxx. Purely speculative trades are rare. The risks that arise are mainly due to lack of transparency in OTC trading, and abusive use of these instruments. Credit derivatives greatly facilitate risk management in banks. Regulations have increased since the financial crisis and the demand for more complex products greatly decreased.

Kredito rizikos ir valdymo magistro baigiamojo darbo tema yra aktuali, todėl kad bankai – vieni iš svarbiausių ekonominės veiklos dalyvių, kadangi jie kaupia lėšas priimdami indėlius ir skolina pinigus juridiniams ir fiziniams asmenims. Bankų pajamas užtikrina paskolos, kituose bankuose laikomi indėliai, vertybiniai popieriai ir kitas turtas. Paskolos sudaro apie 60 % bankų turto, todėl pati reikšmingiausia komerciniams bankams yra kreditinė rizika, nes paskolų portfelis paprastai sudaro pačią didžiausią banko aktyvų dalį. Kredito rizika reiškia, kad klientas neįvykdys savo įsipareigojimų bankui. Todėl ir kredito rizikos valdymo aktualumas yra akivaizdus. Deja, Lietuvos mokslinėje literatūroje kreditinei rizikai skiriama santykinai mažai dėmesio. Daugelis autorių aptaria arba visas rizikos rūšis, jų valdymą, tačiau nepakankamai išsamiai, arba didesnį dėmesį skiria kitoms rizikos rūšims, tačiau ne kredito rizikai. Todėl neabejotina tiek šio darbo praktinė nauda, tiek ir naujumas. Šio darbo objektas – kreditinė rizika Lietuvos komerciniuose bankuose. Pagrindinis šio darbo tikslas - išanalizuoti kreditinės rizikos valdymo praktiką, problemas ir pateikti siūlymus toms problemoms spręsti. Darbo hipotezė – kreditinės rizikos valdymas nėra pakankamai išvystytas Lietuvos komerciniuose bankuose. Siekiant keliamo tikslo buvo sprendžiami tokie uždaviniai: apibūdinti kreditinę riziką ir jos rūšis, apibrėžti, kokiomis priemonėmis valdoma rizika ir apžvelgti kredito rizikos valdymo sistemą... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The theme of the master’s thesis of credit risk is actuals because banks are one of the most important participants in the economical activities, because they accumulate funds accepting deposits and borrow money to legal and natural people. The income of banks is assured by loans, deposits, kept at the other banks, securities and other assets. Loans form approximately 60 % of the bank assets, therefore credit risk is mostly important for commercial banks, because loans portfolio form the biggest part of the banks actives. Credit risk means that a client will not fulfil his obligations to the bank. Therefore, the actuality of credit risk management is evident. However, relatively low attention is aid at the credit risk in Lithuanian non-fiction literature. Many authors discuss either all the types of risk, their management, however in insufficient detail, o a higher attention is paid at the other types of risk, but not the credit risk. Therefore, this thesis is valuable not only because of its practice, but also by its originality. Therefore, practical use as well as originality of this thesis is obvious. The subject of this thesis is credit risk at Lithuanian commercial banks. The key objective of this thesis is to analyze credit risk management practice, problems and provide with the offers to solve these problems. The hypothesis of this thesis is that credit risk management has not been developed sufficiently at Lithuanian commercial banks. To seek a raised aim the... [to full text]

Le commerce international ne cesse de se développer avec l'évolution des technologies de l'information de nos jours. Le crédit documentaire, qui est un instrument de règlement du prix de prestations commerciales entre un vendeur exportateur et un acheteur importateur, fait partie du domaine touché par l'évolution électronique. C'est la raison pour laquelle la Chambre de commerce international de Paris a adopté récemment le Guide sur le crédit documentaire informatisé (eRUU), supplément aux règles et usances uniformes (les RUU 500) appliqué aux crédits documentaires. Le crédit documentaire doit être basé sur une grande confiance et une énorme sécurité. Ainsi, la fraude nuit au principe de l'autonomie de la lettre de crédit et détruit le besoin de sécurité qu'elle engendre. Les divergences relatives à certains critères de la fraude et la délimitation des obligations de la banque dans la vérification des documents sur support papier sont assez complexes pour les commerçants internationaux et pour les banques. Et même si la dématérialisation des documents a tendance à diminuer la fraude en la matière, le crédit documentaire dématérialisé serait encore loin d'être réalisé sans difficultés, avec l'émergence directe des tiers dans l'opération. Son analyse exhaustive doit donc continuer sur le plan doctrinal. La délimitation du devoir de la banque dans la recherche de cette fraude électronique, et dans le paiement des documents électroniques deviendrait aussi discutable que celle dans le crédit documentaire traditionnel. Les banques devraient, entre autres, être sensibilisées sur la nécessité de prendre dans les meilleurs délais certaines dispositions, pour permettre à la clientèle des entreprises d'effectuer des présentations ou des réceptions électroniques des documents de la lettre de crédit en conformité avec le règlement eUCP. / The international trade does not cease developing with the evolution of information technology nowadays. The documentary credit, which is an instrument of payment of the price of commercial services between an exporting salesman and an importing purchaser, is part of the field touched by the electronic evolution. This is why the international Chamber of Commerce of Paris recently adopted the Guide on the computerized letter of credit (eRUU), supplement to the Uniform Customs and Practice for Documentary Credit (RUU 500). The letter of credit must be based on a great confidence and an enormous safety. Thus, the fraud harms the principle of the autonomy of the letter of credit and destroyes the need for safety which it generates. The divergences relative to certain criteria of the fraud and the delimitation of the obligations of the bank in the checking of the documents on paper medium are complex enough for the international tradesmen and the banks. And even if the dematerialization of the documents tends to decrease the fraud on the matter, the dematerialized credit on security would be still far from being carried out without difficulties, with the direct emergence of the thirds in the operation. Its exhaustive analysis must then continue on the doctrinal level. The delimitation of the duty of the bank in the search for this electronic fraud, and in the payment of the electronic documents would become as debatable as that in the traditional documentary credit. The banks would have to be somewhat sensitized on the need for making certain provisions as soon as possible, to allow companies' customers to carry out presentations or electronic receptions of the documents of the letter of credit in conformity with the eUCP. / "Mémoire présenté à la faculté des études supérieures en vue de l'obtention du grade de Maîtrise en droit des affaires (LL.M)"

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the anti-Semitic propaganda of Social Credit movement in the 1930s and 1940s and its impact on organized Canadian Jewry. During World War Two, the Alberta Social Credit government and its provincial land national parties engaged in the dissemination of anti-Semitic propaganda, which greatly concerned the Canadian Jewish Congress, the national representative organization for Canadian Jewry. The Canadian Jewish Congress responded by attempting to confront and end this propaganda; however, it lacked a public relations philosophy effective and assertive enough to do so. Eventually the Social Credit movement realized the political liabilities of engaging in anti-Semitic propaganda; yet despite Congress's years of efforts, it could take little credit for Social Credit's purge of anti-Semitism. An examination of the relationship between the Canadian Jewish Congress and the Social Credit movement adds a new perspective on the history of both organizations, and reveals much about ethnic organization in Canada and the nation's political culture of intolerance. / The sources for this thesis come from the Canadian Jewish Congress National Archives in Montreal, the National Archives of Canada in Ottawa, the Provincial Archives of Manitoba in Winnipeg, the Glenbow Archives-Institute in Calgary, and the Provincial Archives of Alberta in Edmonton. The Canadian Social Crediter, Vers Demain, and other Canadian newspapers were used extensively. The sources on the Social Credit movement held at the Canadian Jewish Congress National Archives have not been used before, which makes this thesis a significant departure from previous works.

Svenska banker har genomgått flera finanskriser som resulterat i olika konsekvenser, bland annat kreditförluster. Intresset för varför en del banker drabbades mer medan andra drabbades mindre påverkade valet av problemområde. Många studier har gjorts beträffande kreditbeslut vid nya krediter, dock verkade området kring kredituppföljningen, det sekundära kreditbeslutet, vara relativt outforskat. Förhoppningen var att kunna bidra med kunskap som dels kunde vara användbar för kreditgivare, genom att dra lärdom av bra exempel, och dels vara brukbar för låntagarna. En annan önskan var att ge inspiration till ytterligare studier i ett relativt outforskat område. En noggrann kredituppföljning är också betydelsefull för samhället i stort. Syftet var att få en bättre bild av hur kredituppföljningsprocessen utförs i praktiken i svenska banker. Genom kvalitativa intervjuer har kredituppföljningen studerats hos sex banker i västra Sverige; Handelsbanken, Länsförsäkringar Bank, Swedbank, SEB samt två Fristående Sparbanker. Intervjupersonerna var personer med gedigen erfarenhet från utlåningsprocessen gentemot företag. Den empiriska undersökningen visade en stor överensstämmelse kring hur kredit-uppföljningen utförs i de banker som ingått i studien. Uppföljningsprocessen genomförs utifrån volym och någon form av riskklassificering. I beslutsunderlaget ingår såväl formella som informella delar, med andra ord både kvantitativ och kvalitativ information. Studien visade att både transaktions- och relationsutlåning är delar av det sekundära kreditbeslutet. En skillnad var hur stor betydelse de mjuka delarna har i kredituppföljningen. Min tolkning är att organisationskulturen har betydelse / Swedish banks have underwent several financial crises that have resulted in different type of consequences, amongst other things, credit losses. The interest for why some banks were hit more than others, influenced the choice of the problem area. Many studies have been made regarding lender decisions on new loans, however, the area related to the credit monitoring, i. e. the secondary lender decision, seems to be relatively unexplored. The aim was to contribute with knowledge that partly could be useful for creditors, through learnings from good examples, as well as partly be useful for the borrowers. Another expectation was to inspire to further studies of an area that has not been investigated deeply so far. A throught credit monitoring is also important for the society as much. The purpose was to get a better picture of how the credit monitoring processes are performed in practise in Swedish banks. Through qualitative interviews, the credit monitoring processes have been studied att six banks in the west part of Sweden. The banks are; Handelsbanken, Länsförsäkringar Bank, Swedbank, SEB and two independent banks. The respondents were persons with a solid and senior experience from lending processes towards companies. The empirical study showed a high degree of consistency in how the credit monitoring are performed at the Swedish banks that were a part of the investigation. The monitoring process are carried out based on volume and some type of risk assessment. The decision material contains formal as well as informal information or in other words: both quantitative as well qualitative information. The study showed that both transactional as well as relationship lending are parts of the secondary lender decision. One difference that was noticed, was how big importance the soft factors have in the credit monitoring process. My interpretation is that the organizational culture has an influence on this.

Magistro baigiamojo darbo aktualumas ir problema atsispindi dabartinėje kredito unijų padėtyje ir jų prisiimamoje rizikoje, kai už dideles palūkanas yra pritraukiami indėliai, ženkliai didinantys šių finansinių įstaigų įsipareigojimus ir paskolų apimtis, siekiant konkuruoti su bankais. Konkurencijai su bankais taip pat įtaką daro ir neigiama žiniasklaidos informacija apie šių finansinių įtaigų veiklos neskaidrumą. Darbo tikslas – įvertinti teoriniu ir praktiniu požiūriu kredito unijų veiklą, nustatyti jų vietą finansų sistemoje. Finansinių tendencijų kredito unijose analizės metu buvo išsiaiškinta, kad kredito unijų turtas, investicijos į vyriausybės vertybinius popierius, paskolos, indėlių priėmimas ir pajinio kapitalo apimtys augo. Atlikus ekspertų interviu gautų duomenų analizę, nustatyta, kad dabartinė kredito unijų sistema yra vertinama teigiamai. Siekiant tobulinti Lietuvos kredito unijų veiklą, pirmiausiai, yra būtina gerinti kredito unijų darbuotojų kompetenciją, suteikti sąlygas aptarnauti ne tik kredito unijų narius, diegti naujas informacines technologijas, taip sukuriant daugiau paslaugų ir produktų klientams. Įvertinus pagrindinius veiksnius, susijusius su kredito unijų valdymu, nustatyta, kad Lietuvos kredito unijų sistema trečiojo, brandos, lygio per artimiausius metus nepasieks. Tačiau pagrindiniai tobulinimai šiame sektoriuje turėtų apimti informacinių technologijų plėtojimą, ypač vertinant mobilius apmokėjimus ir mobilią bankininkystę. / The relevance and problematic of this master's thesis is reflected in the current position of credit unions and their risk taking, while the high interest rates the deposits are attracted, it also significantly increases the obligations and loan volume of these financial institutions in comparison with the banks. Competition with the banks also influenced by negative media coverage of the financial activities of credit unions. The goal of this thesis is to assess the theoretical and practical approach of the activities in credit unions to establish their place in the financial system. The analysis of financial trends showed the increase in assets, investment in government securities, loans, deposit-taking and shared capital in Lithuanian credit unions during the period of 2005-2012. The expert survey results showed that the current credit union system is viewed positively. In order to improve the Lithuanian credit unions operations there is a need to improve the skills of the staff, to provide service for not only the members of the credit union, introduce new information technologies to this financial sector, and to create more services and products. In should be noted, that evaluation of main credit union development factors influencing Lithuanian credit union system showed that this system will not reach the maturity level over the next few years. But improvements should be made in information technology development of credit unions, especially in mobile payments and... [to full text]

Bakgrund och problem: Dagens företag består allt mer av immateriella tillgångar då samhället vi lever i har blivit allt mer högteknologiskt och kunskapsintensivt. När småföretag vill expandera vänder de sig vanligtvis till banker för att ansöka om krediter. Det finns dock en stor kritik mot hur banker hanterar utlåning till småföretag. Överlag är det väldigt svårt för småföretag att bli beviljade krediter hos banker, speciellt för de småföretag som har en hög andel immateriella tillgångar. Vissa forskare menar även att det finns skillnader i hur immateriella tillgångar bedöms vid kreditbeslut. Vi vill därför undersöka följande: Hur bedömer banker immateriella tillgångar vid kreditbedömningar av småföretag? Hur skiljer sig kreditgivarnas syn på de immateriella tillgångarna? Syfte: Studiens syfte är att undersöka hur banker bedömer immateriella tillgångar vid kreditbedömningar av småföretag och om det finns några skillnader i kreditgivarnas bedömning. Vidare är syftet att studien ska bidra till en ökad förståelse kring vilken betydelse immateriella tillgångar har när banker fattar ett kreditbeslut. Studiens syfte är inte att generalisera och dra slutsatser kring hur alla banker bedömer immateriella tillgångar vid en kreditbedömningsprocess. Metod: Uppsatsen är skriven utifrån en kvalitativ ansats då målet med vår studie är att bidra till en ökad förståelse kring vilken betydelse immateriella tillgångar har när banker fattar ett kreditbeslut men även för att belysa hur osäkerheten med immateriella tillgångar behandlas ur bankernas situation. Kreditgivarnas personliga åsikter har en stor betydelse i vår studie, därför har vi också valt att använda en kvalitativ metod då den bidrar till att respondenternas personliga åsikter och reflektioner kan lyftas fram vilket är nödvändigt för att få en djupare förståelse. Slutsats: Vår studie visar att bankerna vid kreditbedömning av småföretag bedömer immateriella tillgångar på ungefär liknande sätt. Det fanns inga stora skillnader i själva bedömningen av de immateriella tillgångarna. Däremot skiljer sig kreditgivarnas syn på immateriella tillgångar. Trots att samtliga respondenter bedömde tillgångarna i princip på samma sätt kan vi se att det finns skillnader. Det är överlag väldigt svårt för småföretag med en hög andel immateriella tillgångar att bli beviljade krediter men det vi har kommit fram till i den här studien är att det faktiskt finns faktorer som kan påverka ett kreditbeslut och därmed också underlätta för dessa företag att bli beviljade krediter. / Background and problem: Today's businesses consist increasingly of intangible assets because the society we live in has become increasingly high-tech and knowledge-intensive. When small businesses are looking to expand, they usually turn to banks to apply for loans. However, there is a great criticism of how banks handle loans to small businesses. Overall, it is very difficult for small businesses to get credits granted by banks, especially for those small businesses that have a high percentage of intangible assets. Some researchers also believe that there are differences in how intangible assets are assessed on credit decisions. We therefore wish to examine: How do banks assess intangible assets on credit rating of small business? How lenders view differs on intangibles? Purpose: The aim of this study is to examine how banks assess intangible assets in the credit assessment of SMEs and whether there are any differences in lenders' assessment. An additional purpose of the study is to contribute to an increased understanding of the importance of intangible assets when banks make credit decisions. The study's purpose is not to generalize and draw conclusions about how all banks assesses intangible assets on a credit assessment process. Method: The essay is written from a qualitative approach because the goal of our study is to contribute to an increased understanding of the importance of intangible assets when banks make credit decisions but also to illustrate how the uncertainty of intangibles is treated from the banks' situation. The lenders ' personal opinions are of great importance in our study, therefore, we have also chosen to use a qualitative approach as it helps to highlight the respondents' personal opinions and reflections which are necessary to get a deeper understanding. Conclusion: Our study shows that creditors assess intangible assets similarly. There were no significant differences in the actual assessment of the intangible assets. However lenders view of intangible assets differs. Although all respondents assessed the assets in basically the same way, we can see that there are differences. Overall it is very difficult for small companies with a high proportion of intangible assets to be granted credits but that we have arrived to the conclusion that there are indeed factors that can affect a credit decision and therefore make it easier for these companies to be granted credits.