This study adopts Markov-switching ARCH model proposed by Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to explore the behavior of credit spreads for different bond ratings. Specifically, this paper examines the properties of credit spreads and the co-movements of spreads among different durations and credit ratings. The consideration of the population makes the outcome more precise. The contribution of this study is to add to the investors a knowledge as to the credit spread behavior and help them understand the lower rating or longer maturity bonds by the observation of the investment-graded bonds while there are more risks and uncertainties conceal in these high yield bonds or D-rated bonds. The conclusion of this paper may help investors understand credit risk management and thus build appropriate portfolios.

abstract: While credit rating agencies use both forward-looking and historical information in evaluating a firm's credit risk, the role of forward-looking information in their rating decisions is not well understood. In this study, I examine the association between management earnings guidance news and future credit rating changes. While upward earnings guidance is not informative for credit rating changes, downward earnings guidance is significantly and positively associated with both the likelihood and speed of rating downgrades. In cross-sectional analyses, I find that downward guidance is especially informative in two important circumstances: (i) when a firm's current credit rating is overly optimistic compared to a model predicted rating, and (ii) when the relevance or reliability of alternative information sources is lower. In addition, I find that downward guidance is associated with lower future cash flows, as well as a higher volatility of future cash flows. Overall, the results are consistent with credit rating agencies incorporating voluntary bad news disclosures into their decisions about whether and when to downgrade a firm. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Accountancy 2015

Credit rating is an important financial indicator of the debtor's ability to repay the debt duly and on time and it is expressed in a simple form of credit score. It has been talked about the issue of credit rating particularly in context of the financial crisis 2008 because of the failure of credit rating agencies and their contribution to global dimensions of the crisis. This thesis critically assesses the European legal regulation of credit rating in the light of 2008 financial crisis. The evaluation is carried through an economic analysis of law while also using the knowledge of behavioural economics, so that efficiency of both individual provisions and legal regulation as a whole is examined. The fundamental problem of current regulation is its ambiguity, as on the one hand it promotes greater institutionalization of credit rating and on the other hand it promotes greater market discipline of financial market participants. This dichotomy is inefficient because it does not provide for clear incentives neither for investors, nor for issuers or credit rating agencies. Key finding of this thesis is that credit rating regulation would be more efficient if it was aimed exclusively at supporting market discipline. It is important to draw conclusions from analysis of the efficiency of current...

Importance of rating/credit rating agencies' role has recently significantly increased. Rating has become an integral part of the financial, capital markets. Yet this market (i.e. credit rating market) is not subject to regulation (the market works on the basis of a self-regulation principle) which is the fact widely used as a basis for the criticism of this industry in the light of recent events in the financial markets (the collapse of Enron, Parmalat, and other companies, lately followed by a collapse of the subprime mortgage market). The paper outlines the (monopoly) structure of the rating industry in the U.S. and the EU, discusses the new roles of rating in the regulation (e.g. regulation of the banking sector, BASEL II) as well as potential barriers for the market entry. The paper also addresses potential conflicts of interest and lack of regulation which can be observed in the industry.

The thesis studies the factors which underpin the allocation of credit ratings by the two major credit rating agencies (CRAs) namely Moody’s and S&P. CRAs make regular headlines, and their rating’s judgements are closely followed and debated by the financial community. Indeed, criticism of these agencies emerged, both in this community and the popular press, following the 2007-2008 financial crisis. This thesis examines several aspects of the allocation of credit ratings by the major agencies, particularly in relation to (i) their revealed “loss function” preference structure, (ii) the determinants underpinning the allocation of credit ratings and (iii) the reasons determining the circumstances when the two agencies appear to differ in their opinions, and we witness a split credit rating allocation. The first essay empirically estimates the loss function preferences of two agencies by analyzing instances of split credit ratings assigned to corporate issuers. Our dataset utilises a time series of nineteen years (1991-2009) of historical credit ratings data from corporate issuers. The methodology consists of estimating rating judgment differences by deducting the rating implied probability of default from the estimated market implied probability of default. Then, utilising judgment differences, we adapt the GMM estimation following Elliott et al. (2005), to extract the loss function preferences of the two agencies. The estimated preferences show a higher degree of asymmetry in the case of Moody’s, and we find strong evidence of conservatism (relative to the market) in industry sectors other than financials and utilities. S&P exhibits loss function asymmetry in both the utility and financial sectors, whereas in other sectors we find strong evidence of symmetric preferences relative to those of the market. The second essay compares the impact of financial, governance and other variables (in an attempt to capture various subjective elements) in determining issuer credit ratings between the two major CRAs. Utilising a sample of 5192 firm-year observations from S&P400, S&P500 and S&P600 index constituent issuer firms, we employ an ordered probit model on a panel dataset spanning 1995 through 2009. The empirical results suggest that the agencies indeed differ on the level of importance they attach to each variable. We conclude that financial information remains the most significant factor in the attribution of credit ratings for both the agencies. We find no significant improvement in the predictive power of credit rating when we incorporate governance related variables. Our other factors show strong evidence of continuing stringent standards, reputational concerns, and differences in standards during economic crises by the two rating agencies. The third essay investigates the factors determining the allocation of different (split) credit ratings to the same firm by the two agencies. We use financial, governance and other factors in an attempt to capture various subjective elements to explain split credit ratings. The study uses a two-stage bivariate probit estimation method. We use a sample of 5238 firm-year observations from S&P 500, S&P 400, and S&P 600 index constituent firms. Our results indicate that a firm having greater size, favourable coverage and higher profitability are less likely to have a split. However, smaller firms with unfavourable coverage and lower profitability appear to be rated lower by Moody’s in comparison to S&P. Our findings suggest that the stage of the business cycle plays no significant role in deciding splits, but rating shopping and the introduction of regulation FD increase the likelihood of splits arising.

Credit rating agencies judge the creditworthiness of the debtors and debt obligations and the relative probability of their default. Credit rating plays a very important role in the financial markets. It influences the behavior of all participants (investors, debtors and regulators) of the market transactions. The first part of the thesis deals with definition and function of the credit rating. The main controversial points in the activity of the credit rating agencies will be discussed, as well as how the industry is regulated. In the second part it is claimed that the opinions of the credit rating agencies on sovereign bonds (sovereign rating) contribute to the overheating of the economies or to the deeper recession due to procyclicity of the rating. The actual credit rating of the country will be compared with a rating based on a theoretical model designed with publicly available economic data.

We study the effect of conflicts of interest on credit ratings and analyze the rating maintenance of credit rating agencies for various clienteles. By examining the rating-transition path, we found that rating agencies favor their valued clients by stepwise downgrades and full and timely upgrades. Favored clients could, therefore, save capital cost and possibly gain a larger investor base for their new issues. However, such rating behavior would undermine the rating quality and reputation of rating agencies in the long term. Our results provide evidence for the meager literature on rating-agency conflicts from the rating-maintenance perspective. Our findings also lend support to the growing literature that rating agencies do not provide quality services to investors when the regulation is indulgent or the competition within the rating industry is severe.

Kreditvärderingsinstitut arbetar med att göra analyser och bedömningar om vad bolag har för kreditvärdighet genom att tilldela ett kreditbetyg. Bolagen kan välja vilket kreditbetyg de vill publicera till allmänheten. Kreditbetygen används som ett verktyg på obligationsmarknaden för att prissätta dessa, och har därför betydelse för fastighetsbolagens kreditvärdighet. Obligationsmarknaden är en viktig finansieringskälla för större fastighetsbolag. Syftet med detta arbete är att ge läsaren en övergripande bild av de dominerande kreditvärderingsinstituten på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden och eventuella likheter, skillnader och potentiella svagheter. Detta för att identifiera eventuella påföljder som de dominerande kreditvärderingsinstituten kan medföra. Arbetet utgår från både kvalitativ och kvantitativ metod. Den kvalitativa metoden består av ett teoretiskt ramverk som innehåller institutens betygsskalor, kreditvärderingsprocess, policys och disclaimer. Kvantitativa metoden innefattar mejlintervjuer, som skickats ut till 30 svenska fastighetsbolag med publika kreditbetyg. Resultaten visar att det finns likheter, skillnader och svagheter mellan de olika kreditvärderingsinstituten. Trots dominerande likheter hos instituten visade resultatet från mejlintervjuerna en skillnad på fyra betygssteg i snitt-kreditbetyg hos fastighetsföretagen och skillnader i kreditbetyg till Danske Bank. Likheterna och skillnaderna kan leda till svagheter som att fastighetsbolag betalar mycket pengar för ett eller flera kreditbetyg som instituten inte tar ansvar över, och som investerare eventuellt fattar investeringsbeslut baserat på. / Credit rating agencies work to make analyzers and assessments of what companies' creditworthiness is by assigning a credit rating. Companies can choose which credit ratings they want to publish to the public. The credit ratings are used as a tool for obligations to price these and are important for the real estate companies' creditworthiness. Liabilities market is an important source of financing for major real estate companies.   The purpose of this Bachelor Thesis is to give the reader an overall picture of the dominant credit rating agency in the Swedish real estate market and point out any similarities, differences and potential weaknesses. This is to identify any penalties that the dominant credit rating agencies may incur. This work is based on both qualitative and quantitative methods. The qualitative method consists of a theoretical framework that contains the institutions' grading scales, credit rating process, policies and disclaimer. The quantitative method includes email interviews, which have been sent out to 30 Swedish real estate companies with public credit ratings.  Results show that there are similarities, differences and weaknesses between the different credit rating agencies. The dominant similarities between the institutions showed the results from the email interviews and the difference between four rating steps in the average credit rating of the real estate companies and differences in credit ratings to Danske Bank. The similarities and differences can lead to weaknesses such as real estate companies paying a lot of money for one or more credit ratings, which the institutions do not take responsibility for, and on which investors may make investment decisions based on.

Title: Credit Rating Impact on Information Environment – A study on the informational impact of credit ratings in financial markets using equity analysts’ performance as proxy. Introduction: The credit rating agencies provide risk assessment for a massive amount of financial assets around the world. These risk assessments are in turn used by numerous different market participants. The general idea behind this industry is that the credit ratings provide additional information or alternatively increase the quality of information in financial markets. Recent studies (most of which is written after the financial crisis of 2008) argue that there are several issues in the rating processes leading to failure to provide accurate ratings. Other studies still claim that credit rating agencies still provide useful information or alternatively increase the quality of information by sorting and ranking public knowledge of assets. We see the need for an investigating study examining the informational benefits of credit rating in the information environment of markets. Research Approach: How does the issuing of credit ratings impact the information environment in financial markets? Purpose: The study aim to contribute to the understanding of the current and historical effects that credit ratings have, and have had, on the information quality of markets and hence the efficiency of markets. Method: Our study takes a deductive research approach where the methodology is one of a quantitative and explanatory character. To analyze the effects on market information we use the BKLS model (Barron, Kim, Lim & Stevens, 1998), which uses equity analysts’ performance as proxy for the information environment. These data are then used in a long-term time-series study looking for long-term changes in analysts’ performance with yearly observations. Furthermore we test the instant market effects on stock prices from the issuing of a credit rating in a secondary short-term time-series study with daily observations. Conclusions: We find that the issuing of a credit rating in fact decreases the amount/quality of information available in financial markets (both public and private information). We contribute these effects to conflicts of interest in the rating processes and agency problems in the relationship between issuer and credit rating agency. Several practical examples of this are found such as ratings shopping, solicitation of ratings issuing, agencies offering consultant services and the lack of regulatory measures taken by regulators such as ESMA and SEC. We propose several ways of developing the research in this field; most importantly we want to see future studies on the differences between solicited/unsolicited issuing of ratings.

Kredito reitingai viena iš populiariausių, plačiai naudojamų priemonių vertinant riziką, susijusią su emitento galimybėmis ateityje vykdyti savo finansinius įsipareigojimus. Pastarųjų metų finansų krizė finansų rinkų dalyvius privertė suabejoti kredito reitingų patikimumu ir kredito reitingų agentūrų veikla. Kredito reitingų populiarumas, jų reikšmė ir abejonės dėl jų patikimumo skatina išanalizuoti kredito reitingų naudojamas metodologijas, kad suprasti, kaip naudoti jų teikiamą informaciją. Tyrimo problema – ar nepriklausomų kredito reitingų agentūrų suteikti kredito reitingai yra objektyvūs ir patikimi, ir ar investuotojai gali remtis jais priimdami finansinius sprendimus. Tyrimo tikslas – išnagrinėjus kredito reitingų agentūrų naudojamas metodologijas, palyginti Lietuvos komercinių bankų veiklos rezultatų kaitą su jiems suteiktų kredito reitingų pokyčiais bei įvertinti suteikiamų kredito reitingų patikimumą. Šiam tikslui pasiekti, nustatyti tokie uždaviniai: 1. pateikti kredito reitingų sampratą, aprašyti jų suteikimo procesą; 2. išanalizuoti metodologijas, naudojamas suteikiant kredito reitingus; 3. išanalizuoti priežastis, lėmusias pasitikėjimo kredito reitingų agentūromis mažėjimą ir šių institucijų priežiūros priemones; 4. atlikti ekspertinį analizuojamų bankų ir jų aplinkos rodiklių kompleksinį vertinimą; 5. įvertinti kredito reitingų patikimumą, lyginant jų kitimą su kelių Lietuvos komercinių bankų finansinių rodiklių kaita. Baigiamajame magistro darbe iškelta... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Credit ratings are one of the most popular and widely used measure the creditworthiness of issuers. The financial crisis of late years reduced trust of credit ratings and credit rating agencies. The popularity of credit ratings, their importance and doubts of their trustworthiness motivate to analyze methodologies that are used by credit rating agencies and interpret the information credit ratings gives in a properly way. The problem of the research – do sovereign credit ratings are objective and trustworthiness and investors can use them then making financial decisions. The purpose of the research – to analyze methodologies that are used by credit rating agencies, compare Lithuanian commercial banks‘ financial indices and credit ratings dynamics and evaluate the trustworthiness of credit ratings. Tasks of this work: 1. to give the conception of credit ratings and to decribe the process of estimating them; 2. to analyze the methodologies that are used by credit rating agencies; 3. to analyze the reasons of reduced trustworthiness of credit rating agencies and tools that could be used to supervise them; 4. to perform experts‘ evaluation of analyzed banks and their environment by using the multiciterial analysis; 5. evaluate the trustworthiness of credit ratings by comparing their dynamics with dynamics of financial indices of some Lithuanian commercial banks. The hypothesis of Master‘s Work – financial indices ant their dynamics do not definetely gives significant influence... [to full text]