Fundamento: O crescimento da população idosa é um fenômeno mundial. O envelhecimento aumenta o risco para a ocorrência de doenças crônicas que resultam em graus variáveis de perda da independência funcional. A elevação da idade também pode acarretar a redução da independência funcional, tornando os idosos dependentes para a realização de atividades da vida diária (AVDs) e atividades instrumentais da vida diária (AIVDs). Objetivos: O objetivo desse estudo foi avaliar a capacidade funcional, determinando a prevalência de independência funcional e as características associadas em indivíduos idosos, em uma amostra representativa de Porto Alegre, RS, bem como identificar sua associação com qualidade de vida. Essa pesquisa é um dos braços do estudo da Síndrome de Obesidade e Fatores de Risco – SOFT. Participantes e Métodos: Nesse estudo transversal, de base populacional, de indivíduos idosos com 60 e 90 anos, selecionados através de amostragem por estágios múltiplos de conglomerados, em 106 dos 2157 setores censitários de Porto Alegre. Em entrevistas domiciliares aplicou-se um questionário padronizado, para investigar características socioeconômicas, demográficas, hábitos de vida, fatores de risco para doença cardiovascular, além do índice de independência nas atividades de vida diária, desenvolvido por Katz, em1969, e a escala de independência nas atividades instrumentais da vida diária, criado por Lawton e Brody, em 1983, assim como o questionário de qualidade de vida Short Form-12 (Ware,1994). Utilizou-se o módulo Complex Samples, do SPSS, para as análises dos dados, a fim de ajustar para o efeito da amostragem. Testaram-se diferenças entre proporções utilizando-se o teste do quiquadrado de Pearson, ao analisarem-se as prevalências; análise de variância ou co-variância para compararem-se médias, e análise de regressão logística múltipla, para cálculo da odds ratio e intervalo de confiança de 95%. As análises foram para um nível de significância de 5%. Resultados: A média de idade foi semelhante entre homens e mulheres idosos, e a distribuição de idade e sexo foi similar à do censo do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Além de maior escolaridade (8,8 vs. 6,6 anos), os homens referiram estar casados mais freqüentemente (75,7%) do que as mulheres (31,9%), as quais eram predominantemente viúvas ou separadas e residiam sozinhas em maior proporção. Com exceção de cor da pele e de residir sozinho, as demais características associaram-se significativamente com a idade. Identificou-se uma relação inversa entre idade e escolaridade e com o estar casado ou residir com companheiro, e uma associação direta com aposentadoria, separação ou viuvez e o uso de dispositivos para andar. Associação direta e independente de idade e sexo foi observada entre escolaridade e independência para realizar as atividades instrumentais, mas não para as atividades da vida diária. A prática de atividade física regular foi preditora de independência funcional nas AVDs e nas AIVDs. Esse estudo verificou tendência a maior independência entre os homens para o total de domínios das AVDs (94% vs. 89%; p=0,09), assim como das AIVDs (94% vs. 88%; p=0,04). Nos homens, observou-se a redução da independência funcional para realizar a maior parte das AVDs e AIVDs com o avançar da idade. Entre as mulheres, destaca-se, a redução da independência funcional com a idade em todas as atividades, exceto usar o telefone. O sexo masculino esteve associado, independentemente da idade, a maiores escores dos componentes físico e mental da qualidade de vida. A idade associou-se inversamente com o componente físico, enquanto a escolaridade o fez de maneira direta. Entretanto, nenhuma dessas características mostrou relação com o componente mental. Ser ativo fisicamente e possuir menor número de condições crônicas se associaram tanto ao escore do componente físico quanto mental, de maneira fortemente significativa. Conclusão: Os indivíduos idosos investigados no Estudo SOFT, representam a população idosa de Porto Alegre. As diferenças entre homens e mulheres idosos incluem características socioeconômicas, hábitos de vida e independência funcional. Os homens apresentam maior qualidade de vida do que as mulheres, independentemente da idade. / Background: The growth of the elderly population is a worldwide phenomenon. The elderly have chronic diseases that lead to various degrees of incapacity, which increases with age and makes them dependent in their activities of the daily living (ADLs), and in the instrumental activities of the daily living (IADLs). Objectives: the objective of the present study was to assess the functional capacity, verifing the prevalence of functional independence in a representative sample from southern Brazil, as well as to identify its association with life quality. The present research is one of the subprojects of the study of Syndrome of Obesity and Risk Fators (SOFT). Participants and methods: This cross-sectional population-based study of elderly individuals, aged 60 to 90 years old, was selected through a multistage probability sample including participants from 106, out of 2157, census sectors of Porto Alegre. A standard questionnaire was applied in the household in order to investigate socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, life habits, risk factors for cardiovascular disease, as well as the Index of Independence in the activities of the daily living, developed by Katz (1969) and the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale created by Lawton and Brody (1983). The questionnaire Short Form-12 of quality of life (Ware, 1996) was also administered. Complex Samples module of SPSS was used for data analysis in order to take into account the design effect. The differences between proportions were tested by Pearson’s chi-square test; the variance and covariance analyses were used to compare the averages and the multiple logistic regression analysis to calculate the odds ratio and 95% confidence interval. Results: the age average was similar between elderly man and women, and the sex and age distribution was similar to the one of the census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Besides higher scholarity (8,8 vs. 6,6 years), men referred to being married more frequently (75,7%) than women (31,9%), which were mainly widows or were separated and residing alone more often than men. Except for the color of the skin and the fact of residing alone or not, all the researched characteristics were significantly associated with age. An inverse relationship between age and scholarity and between age and being married or residing with a companion was identified, as well as a direct relationship between age and being retired, being separated or a widow, and needing a walking assistance device. Also, it was observed a direct relationship, regardless of age and sex, between scholarity and independence to perform instrumental activities of the daily living, not however, to the activities of daily living. The practice of regular physical activity was a predicting factor for functional independence in both ADLs and IADLs. This study verified a larger tendency for independence among men for the total of the ADLs (94% vs. 89% for women; p=0,09) and IADLs(94% vs. 88% for women; p=0,04) domains. The reduction of functional independence with age among men was observed in most of the ADLs and IADLs. Among women there was a reduction of functional independence in every activity, except the use of the telephone. The masculine sex was associated, regardless of age, to higher scores on the physical and mental components of quality of life. Age associated inversely with the physical component, while scholarity made it directly, but none of those characteristics showed any relationship with the mental component. Being physically active and possessing a lower number of chronic diseases associated significantly with both mental and physical scores. Conclusion: the elderly individuals investigated in the SOFT study are representative of the elderly population of Porto Alegre. The differences between elderly man and women include: socio-economical characteristics, life habits and functional independence. Men present a higher quality of life than women regardless of age.

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / Uso do espaço é um padrão bem estudado em ecologia. Entretanto, formação de área de vida e posição relativa dos abrigos com área de uso são pouco estudados, principalmente para marsupiais didelfídeos. Dentre estes animais, podemos destacar Caluromys philander, devido ao seu baixo registro em armadilhas na Mata Atlântica e características peculiares dentro do grupo, como seu desenvolvimento, longevidade e hábito alimentar. Neste estudo foram investigadas as formações das áreas de uso destes animais através da comparação com seus movimentos diários, e a posição dos seus abrigos dentro das suas áreas de uso. Para isso foram monitorados seis indivíduos de C. philander através de colares rádio transmissores. Estes indivíduos se deslocaram em média 534 153 m por noite. Além disso, apresentaram área diária de 9548 3591 m e área de vida de 2,8 0,4 ha. Noventa e sete por cento das áreas diárias apresentaram sobreposição entre si, com média de 19,4% de sobreposição. Não houve diferença nos locais dos abrigos dos indivíduos monitorados, dentro dos seus Mínimos Polígonos Convexos. Entretanto, estes mesmos abrigos não estiveram localizados nas áreas de maior intensidade de uso. A média de abrigos utilizados por indivíduo foi de 6,3 (3-10) com utilização média de 2,9 (1-17) vezes em cada abrigo, sendo que 48% das vezes os animais só possuíram um registro em cada abrigo, demonstrando baixa fidelidade. Entretanto, dois indivíduos apresentaram diferença de utilização entre seus abrigos, com três destes sendo mais utilizados que os outros. O trabalho sugere que os indivíduos de C. philander monitorados apresentam área de vida propriamente dita (restrita), onde ocorrem as sobreposições entre suas áreas diárias. C. philander utilizam mais de um abrigo em suas vidas, trocando com frequência de abrigos, apesar de alguns destes abrigos poderem ser mais utilizados que outros. Além disso, os abrigos destes animais não são localizados nas suas áreas de maior intensidade de uso. / Use of space is a well studied topic in ecology. However, the structuring of the home range and shelters position, have not received enough attention, especially for didelphid marsupials. One of these, Caluromys philander, is an interesting species because of its low record in traps studies in the Atlantic Forest and its unique characteristics among marsupials related to development, longevity and feeding habits. The present study analyses how daily movements can contribute to the home range formation and how the shelters are positioned within the home range of these animals. Six individuals of C. philander were equipped with radio transmitters necklaces and followed during the night. These individuals moved 534 153 m in average per night. They also had daily ranges of 9548 3591 m and home ranges of 2.8 0.4 ha. There was a 97% overlap between days, with an average of 19.4%. There was no difference in shelters positions and Minimum Convex Polygon areas, although these same shelters were not located in the areas with the greatest use intensity. The average number of shelters used per individual was 6.3 (3-10), with an average of 2.9 (1-17) records per shelter, where shelters were used only one time in 47% of the cases, suggesting low shelter fidelity of these animals. However, two individuals showed difference of shelters use, with three of those being used more than the others. Therefore, I conclude that these individuals of C. philander have real home ranges, where they concentrate their daily movements. C. philander uses more than one shelter in its life, changing shelters frequently, although some shelters can be more used than others. Forthermore, shelters were not located in the areas with the greatest use intensity.

Introdução: O declínio cognitivo representa uma das principais causas de comprometimento funcional e da qualidade de vida do idoso. A busca por preditores de alterações cognitivas precoces ao diagnóstico de demência tem despertado cada vez mais o interesse dos pesquisadores. Tem-se como hipótese que menor desempenho de Atividades Avançadas de Vida Diária (AAVD) poderia ser marcador de declínio cognitivo futuro. As AAVD reúnem as atividades sociais, produtivas e de lazer, e estariam relacionadas ao topo da hierarquia da complexidade das atividades cotidianas, com melhores níveis funcionais e cognitivos. Objetivo: Analisar a associação entre o desempenho de atividades avançadas de vida diária por idosos paulistanos e a incidência de declínio cognitivo. Métodos: Estudo longitudinal com uma amostra de idosos não institucionalizados que participaram da segunda (2006) e terceira (2010) ondas do estudo de múltiplas coortes Saúde, Bem estar e Envelhecimento em São Paulo, Brasil. A amostra final contou com 819 idosos. O declínio cognitivo foi avaliado com o Miniexame do Estado mental abreviado. Foram consideradas 12 AAVD. Outras covariáveis abordaram as condições sociodemográficas, saúde, estilo de vida e incapacidade funcional dos participantes no início do seguimento. A análise estatística incluiu frequência, análises bivariadas e multivariadas, com o uso de Regressão Logística. O programa Stata 12.0 foi utilizado para a análise e a correção para os efeitos do desenho do estudo foi feita pelo comando survey para analisar os dados originados de uma amostra complexa. Resultados: Após quatro anos de seguimento a incidência de declínio cognitivo foi de 7.9 por cento . A análise múltipla evidenciou que os indivíduos com maior número de AAVD no início do estudo apresentavam menor risco de declínio cognitivo ao final do seguimento OR 0.83 [0.71; 0.96]. Outras características foram associadas à incidência de declínio cognitivo no modelo final: 75 anos e mais OR 4.54 [IC 2.52; 8.17], possuir dificuldades nas atividades instrumentais e básicas de vida diária OR 2.54 [1.32; 4.87]. Possuir 8 anos e mais de estudo mostrou-se como fator protetor ao declínio cognitivo OR 0.16 [IC 0.05; 0.52] Conclusões: O desempenho de maior número de AAVD mostrou-se como fator protetor à incidência de declínio cognitivo, independentemente de condições sociodemográficas, condições gerais de saúde, funcionalidade e estilo de vida. / Introduction: Cognitive decline is one of the major causes of impairment of function and quality of life of the elderly. The search for prevention and of early diagnosis of cognitive impairment has attracted increasing interest from researchers. It has been hypothesized that lower performance on Advanced Activities of Daily Living (AADL) could be a marker of future cognitive decline. The AADL cluster the social, productive and leisure activities, and are related to the top of the hierarchy of the daily activities complexity, with better functional and cognitive levels. Objective: Examine the association between the performance of advanced activities of daily living for elderly from São Paulo and the incidence of cognitive impairment. Methods: Longitudinal study with a sample of non-institutionalized elderly who attended the second (2006) and third (2010) waves of the SABE cohort study in São Paulo, Brazil. The final sample consisted of 819 elderly. Cognitive decline was assessed with the Mini-Mental State abridged. 12 AADL were considered. Other covariates have addressed the sociodemographic conditions, health, life style and functional disability of the participants at baseline. The statistical analysis included frequency, bivariate and multivariate analyzes, using logistic regression. Stata 12.0 software was used for the analysis and correction for the effects of study design was done by the \"survey\" command to analyze the data obtained from a complex sample. Results: After four years of follow-up the incidence of cognitive impairment was 7.9 per cent . Multiple regression analysis showed that individuals with the highest number of AADL at baseline had a lower risk of cognitive impairment at the end of follow-up OR 0.83 [0.71; 0.96]. Other variables were associated with incidence of cognitive impairment in the final model: 75 years and over OR 4:54 [2:52 IC; 8:17], difficulties in instrumental and basic activities of daily living OR 2:54 [1:32; 4.87]. To have 8 years and more of study OR 0.16 [IC 0.05; 0.52] was a protective factor of cognitive decline. Conclusions: The performance of a larger number of AADL appeared as a protective factor to the incidence of cognitive impairment, regardless of sociodemographic conditions, general health status and functionality.

Fundamento: O crescimento da população idosa é um fenômeno mundial. O envelhecimento aumenta o risco para a ocorrência de doenças crônicas que resultam em graus variáveis de perda da independência funcional. A elevação da idade também pode acarretar a redução da independência funcional, tornando os idosos dependentes para a realização de atividades da vida diária (AVDs) e atividades instrumentais da vida diária (AIVDs). Objetivos: O objetivo desse estudo foi avaliar a capacidade funcional, determinando a prevalência de independência funcional e as características associadas em indivíduos idosos, em uma amostra representativa de Porto Alegre, RS, bem como identificar sua associação com qualidade de vida. Essa pesquisa é um dos braços do estudo da Síndrome de Obesidade e Fatores de Risco – SOFT. Participantes e Métodos: Nesse estudo transversal, de base populacional, de indivíduos idosos com 60 e 90 anos, selecionados através de amostragem por estágios múltiplos de conglomerados, em 106 dos 2157 setores censitários de Porto Alegre. Em entrevistas domiciliares aplicou-se um questionário padronizado, para investigar características socioeconômicas, demográficas, hábitos de vida, fatores de risco para doença cardiovascular, além do índice de independência nas atividades de vida diária, desenvolvido por Katz, em1969, e a escala de independência nas atividades instrumentais da vida diária, criado por Lawton e Brody, em 1983, assim como o questionário de qualidade de vida Short Form-12 (Ware,1994). Utilizou-se o módulo Complex Samples, do SPSS, para as análises dos dados, a fim de ajustar para o efeito da amostragem. Testaram-se diferenças entre proporções utilizando-se o teste do quiquadrado de Pearson, ao analisarem-se as prevalências; análise de variância ou co-variância para compararem-se médias, e análise de regressão logística múltipla, para cálculo da odds ratio e intervalo de confiança de 95%. As análises foram para um nível de significância de 5%. Resultados: A média de idade foi semelhante entre homens e mulheres idosos, e a distribuição de idade e sexo foi similar à do censo do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Além de maior escolaridade (8,8 vs. 6,6 anos), os homens referiram estar casados mais freqüentemente (75,7%) do que as mulheres (31,9%), as quais eram predominantemente viúvas ou separadas e residiam sozinhas em maior proporção. Com exceção de cor da pele e de residir sozinho, as demais características associaram-se significativamente com a idade. Identificou-se uma relação inversa entre idade e escolaridade e com o estar casado ou residir com companheiro, e uma associação direta com aposentadoria, separação ou viuvez e o uso de dispositivos para andar. Associação direta e independente de idade e sexo foi observada entre escolaridade e independência para realizar as atividades instrumentais, mas não para as atividades da vida diária. A prática de atividade física regular foi preditora de independência funcional nas AVDs e nas AIVDs. Esse estudo verificou tendência a maior independência entre os homens para o total de domínios das AVDs (94% vs. 89%; p=0,09), assim como das AIVDs (94% vs. 88%; p=0,04). Nos homens, observou-se a redução da independência funcional para realizar a maior parte das AVDs e AIVDs com o avançar da idade. Entre as mulheres, destaca-se, a redução da independência funcional com a idade em todas as atividades, exceto usar o telefone. O sexo masculino esteve associado, independentemente da idade, a maiores escores dos componentes físico e mental da qualidade de vida. A idade associou-se inversamente com o componente físico, enquanto a escolaridade o fez de maneira direta. Entretanto, nenhuma dessas características mostrou relação com o componente mental. Ser ativo fisicamente e possuir menor número de condições crônicas se associaram tanto ao escore do componente físico quanto mental, de maneira fortemente significativa. Conclusão: Os indivíduos idosos investigados no Estudo SOFT, representam a população idosa de Porto Alegre. As diferenças entre homens e mulheres idosos incluem características socioeconômicas, hábitos de vida e independência funcional. Os homens apresentam maior qualidade de vida do que as mulheres, independentemente da idade. / Background: The growth of the elderly population is a worldwide phenomenon. The elderly have chronic diseases that lead to various degrees of incapacity, which increases with age and makes them dependent in their activities of the daily living (ADLs), and in the instrumental activities of the daily living (IADLs). Objectives: the objective of the present study was to assess the functional capacity, verifing the prevalence of functional independence in a representative sample from southern Brazil, as well as to identify its association with life quality. The present research is one of the subprojects of the study of Syndrome of Obesity and Risk Fators (SOFT). Participants and methods: This cross-sectional population-based study of elderly individuals, aged 60 to 90 years old, was selected through a multistage probability sample including participants from 106, out of 2157, census sectors of Porto Alegre. A standard questionnaire was applied in the household in order to investigate socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, life habits, risk factors for cardiovascular disease, as well as the Index of Independence in the activities of the daily living, developed by Katz (1969) and the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale created by Lawton and Brody (1983). The questionnaire Short Form-12 of quality of life (Ware, 1996) was also administered. Complex Samples module of SPSS was used for data analysis in order to take into account the design effect. The differences between proportions were tested by Pearson’s chi-square test; the variance and covariance analyses were used to compare the averages and the multiple logistic regression analysis to calculate the odds ratio and 95% confidence interval. Results: the age average was similar between elderly man and women, and the sex and age distribution was similar to the one of the census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Besides higher scholarity (8,8 vs. 6,6 years), men referred to being married more frequently (75,7%) than women (31,9%), which were mainly widows or were separated and residing alone more often than men. Except for the color of the skin and the fact of residing alone or not, all the researched characteristics were significantly associated with age. An inverse relationship between age and scholarity and between age and being married or residing with a companion was identified, as well as a direct relationship between age and being retired, being separated or a widow, and needing a walking assistance device. Also, it was observed a direct relationship, regardless of age and sex, between scholarity and independence to perform instrumental activities of the daily living, not however, to the activities of daily living. The practice of regular physical activity was a predicting factor for functional independence in both ADLs and IADLs. This study verified a larger tendency for independence among men for the total of the ADLs (94% vs. 89% for women; p=0,09) and IADLs(94% vs. 88% for women; p=0,04) domains. The reduction of functional independence with age among men was observed in most of the ADLs and IADLs. Among women there was a reduction of functional independence in every activity, except the use of the telephone. The masculine sex was associated, regardless of age, to higher scores on the physical and mental components of quality of life. Age associated inversely with the physical component, while scholarity made it directly, but none of those characteristics showed any relationship with the mental component. Being physically active and possessing a lower number of chronic diseases associated significantly with both mental and physical scores. Conclusion: the elderly individuals investigated in the SOFT study are representative of the elderly population of Porto Alegre. The differences between elderly man and women include: socio-economical characteristics, life habits and functional independence. Men present a higher quality of life than women regardless of age.

A presente dissertação realiza uma análise dos artigos jornalísticos de Karl Marx e Frie-drich Engels publicados no jornal norte-americano New York Daily Tribune, entre 1851 e 1862. Durante esse período, Marx trabalhou como correspondente europeu e era o responsável pelos assuntos militares e financeiros do jornal. Engels, como uma espécie de ghost writer, ajudou Marx na tarefa de despachar semanalmente os artigos para Nova Iorque. Dentre os diversos assuntos abordados por Marx nesses artigos, selecionamos a crise de econômica de 1857-1858 e a Guerra Civil Americana de 1861-1865 como focos de nosso trabalho A escolha desses dois temas nos permite demonstrar a interação entre os estudos de economia desenvolvidos por Marx para elaboração de sua crítica da eco-nomia política e os estudos dos acontecimentos históricos particulares. Essa interação é fundamental para pensarmos o que Marx chamou em O Capital de método de pesqui-sa e método de apresentação. Ela é fundamental também para entendermos a especi-ficidade da apresentação ou da narrativa histórica desenvolvida por Marx nos artigos jornalísticos. Dos artigos sobre a crise destacamos como, a partir da análise detalhada do sistema financeiro, em especial do banco francês Crédit Mobilier, Marx aponta para a centralidade do sistema de crédito na expansão da economia capitalista e no estouro das crises. A partir dos artigos sobre a guerra civil americana, descrevemos como Marx procurou entender a guerra como um conflito entre dois sistemas sociais a escravi-dão e o trabalho assalariado tendo em vista a necessidade expansiva do escravismo. / This dissertation makes an analysis of journalistic articles of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels published in the American newspaper New York Daily Tribune between 1851 and 1862. During this period, Marx worked as European correspondent and was respon-sible for the newspapers military and financial matters. Engels, as a sort of ghostwriter, helped Marx in the task weekly dispatch the articles to New York. Among the many matters discussed by Marx in these articles, we selected the economic crisis of 1857-1858 and the American Civil War of 1861-1865 as the central focus of our analysis. The choice of these two topics allows us to demonstrate the interaction between the econom-ic studies developed by Marx to elaborate his critique of political economy and studies of particular historical events. This interaction is crucial to think what Marx called in The Capital research method and presentation method. It is also fundamental to understand the specificity of the presentation or the historical narrative developed by Marx in newspaper articles. Articles about the crisis highlight how, from the detailed analysis of the financial system, especially the French Crédit Mobilier, Marx points to the centrality of the credit system in the expansion of the capitalist economy and the bursting of the crisis. From the articles on the American Civil War, we described as Marx tried to understand the war as a conflict between two social systems the slav-ery and the free-labor having in mind the expansive necessity of slavery.

The land–atmosphere interactions and the coupling between climate and land surface hydrological processes are gaining interest in the recent past. The increased knowledge in hydro climatology and the global hydrological cycle, with terrestrial and atmospheric feedbacks, led to the utilization of the climate variables and atmospheric tele-connections in modeling the hydrological processes like rainfall and runoff. Numerous statistical and dynamical models employing different combinations of predictor variables and mathematical equations have been developed on this aspect. The relevance of predictor variables is usually measured through the observed linear correlation between the predictor and the predictand. However, many predictor climatic variables are found to have been switching the relationships over time, which demands a replacement of these variables. The unsatisfactory performance of both the statistical and dynamical models demands a more authentic method for assessing the dependency between the climatic variables and hydrologic processes by taking into account the nonlinear causal relationships and the instability due to these nonlinear interactions. The most obvious cause for limited predictability in even a perfect model with high resolution observations is the nonlinearity of the hydrological systems [Bloschl and Zehe, 2005]. This is mainly due to the chaotic nature of the weather and its sensitiveness to initial conditions [Lorenz, 1963], which restricts the predictability of day-to-day weather to only a few days or weeks. The present thesis deals with developing association rules to extract the causal relationships between the climatic variables and rainfall and to unearth the frequent predictor patterns that precede the extreme episodes of rainfall using a time series data mining algorithm. The inherent nonlinearity and uncertainty due to the chaotic nature of hydrologic processes (rainfall and runoff) is modeled through a nonlinear prediction method. Methodologies are developed to increase the predictability and reduce the predictive uncertainty of chaotic hydrologic series. A data mining algorithm making use of the concepts of minimal occurrences with constraints and time lags is used to discover association rules between extreme rainfall events and climatic indices. The algorithm considers only the extreme events as the target episodes (consequents) by separating these from the normal episodes, which are quite frequent and finds the time-lagged relationships with the climatic indices, which are treated as the antecedents. Association rules are generated for all the five homogenous regions of India (as defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) and also for All India by making use of the data from 1960-1982. The analysis of the rules shows that strong relationships exist between the extreme rainfall events and the climatic indices chosen, i.e., Darwin Sea Level Pressure (DSLP), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Nino 3.4 and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) values. Validation of the rules using data for the period 1983-2005, clearly shows that most of the rules are repeating and for some rules, even if they are not exactly the same, the combinations of the indices mentioned in these rules are the same during validation period with slight variations in the representative classes taken by the indices. The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and the behaviour of daily rainfall series in different regions. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha river basin, Mahanadi river basin and All India for the period 1955 to 2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series considered. Correlation dimension method is repeated on the phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check the existence of any pseudo low-dimensional chaos [Osborne and Provenzale, 1989]. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A limit in predictability in chaotic system arises mainly due to its sensitivity to the infinitesimal changes in its initial conditions and also due to the ineffectiveness of the model to reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. In the present study, an attempt is made to quantify these uncertainties involved and thereby improve the predictability by adopting a nonlinear ensemble prediction. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996 to 2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are made from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. The predictability of the chaotic daily rainfall series is improved by utilizing information from various climatic indices and adopting a multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. Daily rainfall data of Malaprabha river basin, India for the period 1955 to 2000 is used for the study. A multivariate phase space is generated, considering a climate data set of 16 variables. The redundancy, if any, of this atmospheric data set is further removed by employing principal component analysis (PCA) method and thereby reducing it to 8 principal components (PCs). This multivariate series (rainfall along with 8 PCs) are found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with dimension 10. Nonlinear prediction is done using univariate series (rainfall alone) and multivariate series for different combinations of embedding dimensions and delay times. The uncertainty in initial conditions is thus addressed by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of parameters. The ensembles generated from multivariate predictions are found to be better than those from univariate predictions. The uncertainty in predictions is reduced or in other words, the predictability is improved by adopting multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. The restriction on predictability of a chaotic series can thus be reduced by quantifying the uncertainty in the initial conditions and also by including other possible variables, which may influence the system. Even though, the sensitivity to initial conditions limit the predictability in chaotic systems, a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All the traditional chaotic prediction methods are based on local models since these methods model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor [Sivakumar et al., 2002a]. This study focuses on combining a local learning wavelet analysis (decomposition) model with a global feedforward neural network model and its implementation on phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. The daily streamflow series at Basantpur station in Mahanadi basin, India is found to exhibit a chaotic nature with dimension varying from 5-7. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimension and delay time. Compared with traditional local approximation approach, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor is clearly demonstrated.

Many elderly patients visiting the emergency department for minor injuries are not assessed for functional status and experience functional decline 6 months post injury. Identifying such high-risk patients can allow for interventions to prevent or minimize adverse health outcomes including loss of independence. For the purpose of a planned clinical decision rule to identify elderly patients at high risk of functional decline a survey of physicians was conducted. A random sample of 534 Canadian geriatricians, emergency and family physicians was selected with half randomly selected to receive an incentive. A response rate of 57.0% was obtained with 90% of physicians considering a drop in function of at least 2 points on the 28-point OARS ADL scale as clinically significant. A sensitivity of 90% would meet or exceed 90% of physicians' requirements for a clinical decision rule to identify injured seniors at high risk of functional decline 6 months post injury.

The study critically explored the language of reportage of the Zimbabwe Land Reform programme as presented in selected Shona and English newspapers in Zimbabwe. The study focused on Kwayedza, The Herald, The Daily News and The Daily Mirror. The objective was to find out whether or not the verbal and visual languages used in reporting the Land Reform programme left readers more knowledgeable about the programme, and then adopt a critical attitude towards the Land Reform exercise. The study used qualitative textual analysis to unpack the language frames used in representing Land Reform in the selected newspapers. Some relevant critical voices from readers were also enlisted in order to support or complicate interpretations of how Land Reform was portrayed in the selected stories. Kwayedza and The Herald unequivocally supported the Land Reform. This official stance was contested in Chapter Four in which The Daily News adopted an ideological position opposed to both the idea of the Land Reform and the confiscatory way the land was repossessed. The Daily News’ extremely negative criticism of the Land Reform was challenged and then modified in The Daily Mirror. The Daily Mirror criticised both the government’s extremely supportive view of the Land Reform. The Daily Mirror also openly criticised The Daily News for refusing to acknowledge the historical inevitability and necessity of the Land Reform. The Daily Mirror advanced a perspective that suggested that Land Reform programme should benefit the masses more than the elites. It was argued that in contexts of political change such as that of Zimbabwe, newspapers take a stance and support particular ideological interests. / African Languages / D. Litt. et Phil. (African Languages)

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