<p>In this thesis, we explore several stochastic models associated withthe two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution and population genetics.The impacts of mutation, selection and time onthe population evolutionary process will be studied by focusing on two aspects of the model:equilibrium and non-equilibrium. In the first chapter, we introduce relevant background on stochastic genetic models, andsummarize our main results and their motivations. In the second chapter, the two-parameter GEM distribution is constructedfrom a linear birth process with immigration. The derivationrelies on the limiting behavior of the age-ordered family frequencies. In the third chapter, to show the robustness of the sampling formula we derive the Laplace transform of the two-parameterPoisson-Dirichlet distribution from Pitman sampling formula. The correlationmeasure of the two-parameter point process is obtained in our proof. We also reverse this derivationby getting the sampling formula from the Laplace transform. Then,we establish a central limit theorem for the infinitely-many-neutral-alleles modelat a fixed time as the mutation rate goes to infinity.Lastly, we get the Laplace transform for the selectionmodel from its sampling formula. In the fourth chapter, we establisha central limit theorem for the homozygosity functions under overdominant selectionwith mutation approaching infinity. The selection intensity is given by a multiple of certain powerof the mutation rate. This result shows an asymptotic normality for the properly scaled homozygosities,resembling the neutral model without selection.This implies that the influence of selection can hardly be observed with large mutation. In the fifth chapter, the stochastic dynamics of the two-parameter extension of theinfinitely-many-neutral-alleles model is characterized by the derivation of its transition function,which is absolutely continuous with respect to the stationary distribution being the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution.The transition density is obtained by the expansion of eigenfunctions.Combining this result with the correlation measure in Chapter 3, we obtain the probability generatingfunction of a random sampling from the two-parameter model at a fixed time. Finally, we obtain two results based on the quasi-invariance of the Gamma processwith respect to the multiplication transformation group.One is the quasi-invariance property of the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichletdistribution with respect to Markovian transformation group.The other one is the equivalence between the quasi-invarianceof the stationary distributions of aclass of branching processes and their reversibility.</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

In dieser Arbeit werden die zu einem m-sektoriellen Operator assoziierten Halbgruppen betrachtet, die die Lösungen des Anfangswertproblems der zugehörigen Evolutionsgleichung beschreiben. Es wird eine 1987 von Davies veröffentlichte Methode zur Abschätzung dieser Halbgruppen verallgemeinert. Einen Schwerpunkt bilden die zu Dirichlet-Formen assoziierten Markov-Halbgruppen. Für diese werden die Resultate spezialisiert und der Zusammenhang zur intrinsischen Metrik dargelegt. Die Arbeit schließt mit verschiedenen Beispielen, die zeigen, wie mit diesen Verallgemeinerungen von Davies Methode neue Anwendungsgebiete erschlossen werden können.:Einleitung Funktionalanalytische Grundlagen Spezielle Halbgruppeneigenschaften Symmetrische Dirichlet-Formen Obere Schranken für die Halbgruppe Anwendungen Ausblick Komplexe Maße Anhang / This thesis is about m-sectorial operators and their associated semigroups describing the solutions of the initial value problem of the corresponding evolution equation. We generalize a method published by Davies 1987 to estimate these semigroups. A focus is set on Markov semigroups associated with Dirchlet forms. The results are applied to them and the connection to the intrinsic metric is presented. The thesis ends with different examples showing how this generalization of Davies method can be applied into new fields of application.:Einleitung Funktionalanalytische Grundlagen Spezielle Halbgruppeneigenschaften Symmetrische Dirichlet-Formen Obere Schranken für die Halbgruppe Anwendungen Ausblick Komplexe Maße Anhang

With the vast amount of information available on the Internet today, helping users find relevant content has become a prioritized task in many software products that recommend news articles. One such product is Opera for Android, which has a news feed containing articles the user may be interested in. In order to easily determine what articles to recommend, they can be categorized by the topics they contain. One approach of categorizing articles is using Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing (NLP). A commonly used model is Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), which finds latent topics within large datasets of for example text articles. An extension of LDA is hierarchical Latent Dirichlet Allocation (hLDA) which is an hierarchical variant of LDA. In hLDA, the latent topics found among a set of articles are structured hierarchically in a tree. Each node represents a topic, and the levels represent different levels of abstraction in the topics. A further extension of hLDA is constrained hLDA, where a set of predefined, constrained topics are added to the tree. The constrained topics are extracted from the dataset by grouping highly correlated words. The idea of constrained hLDA is to improve the topic structure derived by a hLDA model by making the process semi-supervised. The aim of this thesis is to create a hLDA and a constrained hLDA model from a dataset of articles provided by Opera. The models should then be evaluated using the novel metric word frequency similarity, which is a measure of the similarity between the words representing the parent and child topics in a hierarchical topic model. The results show that word frequency similarity can be used to evaluate whether the topics in a parent-child topic pair are too similar, so that the child does not specify a subtopic of the parent. It can also be used to evaluate if the topics are too dissimilar, so that the topics seem unrelated and perhaps should not be connected in the hierarchy. The results also show that the two topic models created had comparable word frequency similarity scores. None of the models seemed to significantly outperform the other with regard to the metric.

Neste trabalho são apresentadas algumas extensões de modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura, assumindo o contexto em que as observações estão agrupadas. Dois efeitos aleatórios são incorporados para cada grupo: um para explicar o efeito no tempo de sobrevida das observações suscetíveis e outro para explicar a probabilidade de cura. Apresenta-se uma abordagem clássica através dos estimadores REML e uma abordagem bayesiana através do uso de processos de Dirichlet. Discute-se alguns estudos de simulação em que avalia-se o desempenho dos estimadores propostos, além de comparar as duas abordagens. Finalmente, ilustram-se os resultados com dados reais. / In this work some extensions in survival models with cure fraction are presented, assuming the context in which the observations are grouped into clusters. Two random effects are incorporated for each group: one to explain the effect on survival time of susceptible observations and another to explain the probability of cure. A classical approach through the REML estimators is presented as well as a bayesian approach through Dirichlet Process. Besides comparing both approaches, some simulation studies which evaluates the performance of the proposed estimators are discussed. Finally, the results are illustrated with a real database.

Estudamos o problema de valores de contorno {\'DELTA POT. 2\' u = f em \'OMEGA\', \'BETA\' u = 0 em \'PARTIAL OMEGA\', um aberto limitado \'OMEGA\' \'ESTÁ CONTIDO\' \'R POT. N\' , sob diferentes condições de contorno. As questões de existência e positividade de soluções para este problema são abordadas com condições de contorno de Dirichlet, Navier e Steklov. Deduzimos condições de contorno naturais através do estudo de um modelo para uma placa com carga estática. Estudamos ainda propriedades do primeiro autovalor de \'DELTA POT. 2\' e o problema semilinear {\'DELTA POT. 2\' u = F (u) em \'OMEGA\' u = \'PARTIAL\'u SUP . \'PARTIAL\' v = 0 em \'PARTIUAL\' \'OMEGA\', para não-linearidades do tipo F(t) = \'l t l POT. p-1\', p \' DIFERENTE\' t, p > 0. Para tal problema estudamos existência e não-existência de soluções e positividade / We study the boundary value problem {\'DELTA POT. 2\' u = f in \'OMEGA\', \'BETA\' u = 0 in \'PARTIAL OMEGA\', in a bounded open \'OMEGA\'\'THIS CONTAINED\' \'R POT. N\' , under different boundary conditions. The questions of existence and positivity of solutions for this problem are addressed with Dirichlet, Navier and Steklov boundary conditions. We deduce natural boundary conditions through the study of a model for a plate with static load. We also study properties of the first eigenvalue of \'DELTA POT. 2\' and the semi-linear problem { \'DELTA POT. 2\' e o problema semilinear {\'DELTA POT. 2\' u = F (u) in \'OMEGA\' u = \'PARTIAL\'u SUP . \'PARTIAL\' v = 0 in \'PARTIUAL\' \'OMEGA\', for non-linearities like F(t) = \'l t l POT. p-1\', p \' DIFFERENT\' t, p > 0. For such problem we study existence and non-existence of solutions and its positivity

La prédominance de l’informel dans l’économie d’Haïti, où plus de 80% de la population vit en dessous du seuil de la pauvreté et plus de 35% au chômage, laisse entrevoir des liens étroits entre l’économie informelle, la pauvreté et le marché du travail. Faire ressortir ces interrelations, exige une évaluation de cette économie informelle qui fait l’objet des quatre chapitres de notre thèse traitant successivement l’évolution de la situation macroéconomique, le capital humain, les gains des travailleurs informels, et la segmentation du marché du travail.Le premier chapitre fait un diagnostic du phénomène selon l’état des lieux des théories élaborées et l’évolution du cadre macro-économique d’Haïti de 1980 à 2010 et propose une évaluation macroéconomique de l’informel à partir d’un modèle PLS (Partial Least Squares) en pourcentage du PIB.Le chapitre deux établit les relations entre l’évolution de l’économie informelle, dérégulation et politiques néolibérales grâce à un modèle LISREL (Linear Structural Relations). Nous examinons les incidences des politiques fiscales, budgétaires et monétaires des 30 dernières années sur l’économie informelle. Nous réévaluons aussi les causes de l’évolution de l’informel généralement évoquées par les études empiriques (taxes, sécurité sociale).Au chapitre trois, nous analysons la dimension micro-réelle de l’informel grâce à un modèle des gains à la Mincer estimé par les équations logit à partir des données d’une enquête nationale sur l’emploi et l’économie informelle (EEEI) de 2007. Nous analysons les déterminants des gains informels au regard de la position des travailleurs sur le marché (salariés, entrepreneurs et indépendants) ; et les revenus (formels et informels) et les caractéristiques socioéconomiques des travailleurs pauvres et non-pauvres par rapport au seuil de pauvreté.Au chapitre quatre, nous testons d’abord la compétitivité et la segmentation du marché de l’emploi en faisant usage de modèle de Roy et du modèle de Roy élargi à travers une estimation d’un modèle Tobit. Nous utilisons un modèle de Processus de Dirichlet : d’abord analyser la segmentation et la compétitivité éventuelle du marché du travail informel ainsi que ses déterminants, selon les données de l’EEEI-2007 ; ensuite, pour distinguer les caractéristiques fondamentales des informels involontaires (exclus du marché du travail formel) de celles des informels volontaires qui en retirent des avantages comparatifs. / The predominance of the informal sector in the economy of Haiti, where more than 80% of the population lives below the threshold of poverty and more than 35% unemployed, suggests links between the informal economy, poverty and the labour market. Highlight these interrelationships, requires an assessment of the informal economy, which is the subject of the four chapters of this thesis, dealing successively with the evolution of the macroeconomic situation, human capital, the informal earnings of workers, and the segmentation of the labour market.The first chapter made a diagnosis of the phenomenon according to the State of affairs of the developed theories and the evolution of the macroeconomic framework of Haiti from 1980 to 2010. And then offers a macroeconomic assessment of the informal sector as a percentage of GDP from a PLS (Partial Least Squares).Chapter two sets out the relationship between the evolution of the informal economy, deregulation and neo-liberal policies through a LISREL (Linear Structural Relations) model. We look at the impact of the budgetary, fiscal and monetary policies of the past 30 years on the informal economy. We also reassess the causes of the evolution of the informal economy generally evoked by the empirical studies (taxes, social security).In the chapter three, we analyse the micro-real dimension of the informal economy through a model of the Mincer earnings estimated by the equations logit from data in a national survey on employment and the informal economy (EEEI) in 2007. We analyse the determinants of informal gains in terms of the position of the market workers (employees, entrepreneurs and self-employed); and revenues (formal and informal) and the socio-economic characteristics of the working poor and non-poor compared to the poverty line.In chapter four, we first test the competitiveness and the segmentation of the labour market by making use of model of Roy and the expanded Roy model through an estimate a model Tobit. We use a model of Dirichlet process: first analyse the segmentation and possible informal work and market competitiveness as its determinants, according to data from the EEEI 2007; then, to distinguish the fundamental characteristics of the involuntary informal (excluded from the formal labour market) than the voluntary informal who gain comparative advantages.

Este modelo contempla o cenário em que a sequência de frações não-conformes no decorrer de um ciclo do processo de produção aumenta gradativamente (situação comum, por exemplo, quando o desgaste de um equipamento é gradual), diferentemente dos modelos de Taguchi, Nayebpour e Woodall e Nandi e Sreehari (1997), que acomodam sequências de frações não-conformes assumindo no máximo três valores, e de Nandi e Sreehari (1999) e Trindade, Ho e Quinino (2007) que contemplam funções de degradação mais simples. O desenvolvimento é baseado nos trabalhos de Ferguson e Antoniak para o cálculo da distribuição a posteriori de uma medida P desconhecida, associada a uma função de distribuição F desconhecida que representa a sequência de frações não-conformes ao longo de um ciclo, supondo, a priori, mistura de Processos Dirichlet. A aplicação consiste na estimação da função de distribuição F e as estimativas de Bayes são analisadas através de alguns casos particulares / In this work, we propose an alternative model for Taguchi´s On-Line Quality-Monitoring Procedure for Attributes under a Bayesian nonparametric framework. This model may be applied to production processes the sequences of defective fractions during a cycle of which increase gradually (for example, when an equipment deteriorates little by little), differently from either Taguchi\'s, Nayebpour and Woodall\'s and Nandi and Sreehari\'s models that allow at most three values for the defective fraction or Nandi and Sreehari\'s and Trindade, Ho and Quinino\'s which take into account simple deterioration functions. The development is based on Ferguson\'s and Antoniak\'s papers to obtain a posteriori distribution for an unknown measure P, associated with an unknown distribution function F that represents the sequence of defective fractions, considering a prior mixture of Dirichlet Processes. The results are applied to the estimation of the distribution function F and the Bayes estimates are analised through some particular cases.

Cette thèse est dédiée à l'étude des marches aléatoires en milieu aléatoire sur Zd. On s'intéresse tout particulièrement aux environnements qui sont elliptiques, mais pas uniformément elliptiques, et qui peuvent donc contenir des pièges sur lesquels la marche passe beaucoup de temps. Le premier résultat de cette thèse (chapitre 4) concerne les environnements de Dirichlet, qui forment une sous-classe de marches aléatoires en milieu aléatoire présentant des propriétés remarquables. On se place en dimension d≥ 3 et on étudie le cas où les pièges dus à la non-uniforme ellipticité sont prépondérants. Dans ce contexte, on montre l'équivalence des points de vue statique et dynamique pour une marche accélérée. Ceci permet de compléter les résultats de transience et récurrence directionnelles obtenus par Sabot, et de donner le degré polynomial de l'éloignement de la marche par rapport à l'origine dans le cas sous-balistique et transient. On se place ensuite (chapitre 5) dans le cas des marches transientes dans une direction, et on étudie les conditions sur la loi de l'environnement nécessaires pour assurer l'existence de moments pour les temps de renouvellement. On améliore ainsi les résultats obtenus par Campos et Ramírez. Dans la dernière partie (chapitre 6), on étudie les conditions d'application du théorème central limite quenched dans le cas des marches aléatoires balistiques. Sous la condition supplémentaire (T), on affaiblit les hypothèses sur l'intégrabilité des temps de renouvellement des travaux de Rassoul-Agha et Seppäläinen et de Berger et Zeitouni : on arrive à la condition E (τ12+ε) < +∞ (pour le théorème annealed la condition optimale est E (τ12) < +∞) / In this thesis we study random walks in random environment on Zd. We are particularly interested in environments that are elliptic, but not uniformly elliptic. Those environments can contain traps on which the walk spends a lot of time. The first results in this thesis (chapter 4) deal with the particular case of Dirichlet environments. Random walks in Dirichlet environment form a sub-class of random walks in random environment with specific properties. We consider dimensions d 3 and we study the behavior of the walk when the traps created by the non-uniform ellipticity play an important part. In this context, we show the equivalence between the static and dynamic points of view for an accelerated walk. This completes the results of directional transience and recurrence obtained by Sabot, and it allows to find the polynomial order of the magnitude of the walk’s displacement in the sub-ballistic transient case. Then (chapter 5) we consider the case of directionally transient walks, and we study the conditions on the law of the environment that ensure the existence of moments for the regeneration times. We thus improve the results obtained by Campos and Ramírez. In the last section (chapter 6), we consider the case of ballistic random walks and we study the conditions under which a quenched central limit theorem holds. Under the additional assumption (T), we weaken the integrability of the regeneration times necessary for the works of Rassoul- Agha and Seppäläinen, and Berger and Zeitouni. We obtain the condition E (τ12+ε) < +∞ (whereas for the annealed theorem, the optimal condition is E (τ12) < +∞)

Este modelo contempla o cenário em que a sequência de frações não-conformes no decorrer de um ciclo do processo de produção aumenta gradativamente (situação comum, por exemplo, quando o desgaste de um equipamento é gradual), diferentemente dos modelos de Taguchi, Nayebpour e Woodall e Nandi e Sreehari (1997), que acomodam sequências de frações não-conformes assumindo no máximo três valores, e de Nandi e Sreehari (1999) e Trindade, Ho e Quinino (2007) que contemplam funções de degradação mais simples. O desenvolvimento é baseado nos trabalhos de Ferguson e Antoniak para o cálculo da distribuição a posteriori de uma medida P desconhecida, associada a uma função de distribuição F desconhecida que representa a sequência de frações não-conformes ao longo de um ciclo, supondo, a priori, mistura de Processos Dirichlet. A aplicação consiste na estimação da função de distribuição F e as estimativas de Bayes são analisadas através de alguns casos particulares / In this work, we propose an alternative model for Taguchi´s On-Line Quality-Monitoring Procedure for Attributes under a Bayesian nonparametric framework. This model may be applied to production processes the sequences of defective fractions during a cycle of which increase gradually (for example, when an equipment deteriorates little by little), differently from either Taguchi\'s, Nayebpour and Woodall\'s and Nandi and Sreehari\'s models that allow at most three values for the defective fraction or Nandi and Sreehari\'s and Trindade, Ho and Quinino\'s which take into account simple deterioration functions. The development is based on Ferguson\'s and Antoniak\'s papers to obtain a posteriori distribution for an unknown measure P, associated with an unknown distribution function F that represents the sequence of defective fractions, considering a prior mixture of Dirichlet Processes. The results are applied to the estimation of the distribution function F and the Bayes estimates are analised through some particular cases.

Neste trabalho são apresentadas algumas extensões de modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura, assumindo o contexto em que as observações estão agrupadas. Dois efeitos aleatórios são incorporados para cada grupo: um para explicar o efeito no tempo de sobrevida das observações suscetíveis e outro para explicar a probabilidade de cura. Apresenta-se uma abordagem clássica através dos estimadores REML e uma abordagem bayesiana através do uso de processos de Dirichlet. Discute-se alguns estudos de simulação em que avalia-se o desempenho dos estimadores propostos, além de comparar as duas abordagens. Finalmente, ilustram-se os resultados com dados reais. / In this work some extensions in survival models with cure fraction are presented, assuming the context in which the observations are grouped into clusters. Two random effects are incorporated for each group: one to explain the effect on survival time of susceptible observations and another to explain the probability of cure. A classical approach through the REML estimators is presented as well as a bayesian approach through Dirichlet Process. Besides comparing both approaches, some simulation studies which evaluates the performance of the proposed estimators are discussed. Finally, the results are illustrated with a real database.