This dissertation presents a theoretical framework about which voters parties distribute to and with which policies. To develop this full framework of distributive policies, the dissertation proceeds in two stages. First, it analyses which voters parties have more incentives to target distributive policies. Second, it also develops the conditions under which political parties can focus exclusively on these voters or need to combine this strategy with appeals to a broader electorate. The first part of the argument analyses which voters parties have at the centre of their distributive strategies, or, in the words of Cox and McCubbins (1986) to whom parties will give an available extra dollar for distribution. The argument is that core voters provide more efficient conditions for distribution, contradicting Stokes’ (2005) claim that a dollar spent on core voters is a wasted dollar. The explanation is twofold. First, core supporters might not vote for another party, but they can get demobilised. Once we include the effects on turnout, core voters are more responsive. Their party identification makes them especially attentive and reactive to economic benefits provided by their party. Secondly, incumbents cannot individually select who receives a distributive policy, and not all voters are equally reachable with distributive policies. When a party provides a policy, it cannot control if some of those resources go to voters the party is not interested in. Core supporters are more homogenous groups with more definable traits, whereas swing voters are a residual category composed by heterogeneous voters with no shared interests. This makes it easier for incumbents to shape distributive benefits that target core voters more exclusively. These mechanisms define the general distribution hypothesis: parties will focus on core voters, by targeting their distributive strategies to them. The second part of the dissertation develops the conditions under which politicians stick to this distributive strategy or, instead, would provide more universalistic spending to a more undefined set of recipients. The conventional argument explaining this choice relies on the electoral system, arguing that proportional systems give more incentives to provide universalistic policies than majoritarian systems. This dissertation challenges this argument and provides two other contextual conditions that define when parties have a stronger interest in their core supporters or in a more general electorate. First, the geographic distribution of core supporters across districts is a crucial piece of information to know the best distributive strategy. When parties’ core supporters are geographically concentrated, they cannot simply rely on them, as the party will always fall short of districts to win the election. Therefore, parties will have greater incentives to expand their electorate by buying off other voters. This should reduce the predicted differences between electoral systems in the provision of universalistic programmes. Secondly, the policy positions of candidates are a result of strategic considerations that respond to other candidates’ positions. Thus, I argue that parties adapt their distributive strategies to the number of competing parties, independently of the electoral system. In a two-party scenario, parties need broader coalitions of electoral support. In equilibrium, any vote can change the electoral outcome. As more parties compete, the breadth of parties’ electorates is reduced and parties will find narrow distributive policies more profitable. In summary, the main contribution of this dissertation one is to provide a new framework to study distributive politics. This framework makes innovations both on the characterisation of swing and core electoral groups, and the rationale of parties’ distributive strategies, contributing to advance previous theoretical and empirical research.

This study examines the relationship between popular support for the Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK), which is an ethnic insurgent and terrorist organization mainly operating in Turkey, and its terrorist activities during the pre-and post-election periods in Turkey . Popular support has been measured through popular votes for the political party affiliated with the PKK in 1999 general, 2004 local and 2007 general elections. Two leading theories of social movements, Resource Mobilization Theory (RMT) and Relative Deprivation Theory (RD), were used as theoretical approach. The study uses secondary data and constructs a longitudinal design. An advanced statistical analysis technique, a generalized hierarchical linear model: time nested within subjects (or GHLM repeated measures) was employed in this study. Findings indicate that popular support is positively related to terrorist attacks of the PKK in Turkey. More popular support for the insurgent leads to more terrorist attacks. Furthermore, terrorist attacks gradually increased over the pre-election period of general elections. However, terrorist attacks abruptly increased upon the election but then subsequent terrorist attacks decline over the post-election periods.

Ce mémoire a pour but d’étudier si le fait d’avoir des élections compétitives au Brésil a mené à des politiques de redistribution de revenus plus efficaces. Le chapitre 1 présente les critères retenus pour mesurer la compétitivité électorale au poste de Gouverneur. À partir des 27 États du pays, on distingue un groupe de 5 États où la compétition électorale est forte et un autre groupe de 5 États pour lequel elle est faible. Pour chacun de ces groupes, un État a été retenu. Le chapitre 2 détaille les facteurs qui expliquent les inégalités au Brésil. La suite du mémoire se consacre à l’analyse des politiques favorisant une meilleure redistribution de revenus pour l’État retenu de chaque groupe (chapitre 3) et pour l’ensemble des deux groupes (chapitre 4). L’analyse révèle qu’un plus important niveau de compétition électorale ne mène pas nécessairement à de meilleures politiques de redistribution de revenus. / This study aims to look at whether electoral competitiveness in Brazil led to more efficient income redistribution policies. Chapter 1 takes a look at which criteria were used to measure electoral competitiveness for Governor. From the country’s 27 States, we have identified a group of 5 States considered to have a high level of electoral competitiveness and another group of 5 States with low levels of competitiveness. We have then outlined a single State for each of these two groups. Chapter 2 details the factors explaining income inequality in Brazil. The remainder of the study focuses on the analysis of policies favouring better income redistribution for the single State selected for each group (chapter 3) and for both groups as a whole (chapter 4). The analysis reveals that a higher level of electoral competitiveness does not necessarily lead to better income redistribution policies.

Depuis le milieu des années 1980, la construction européenne est entrée dans une phase d’accélération quivoit l’affirmation de l’Union européenne comme un espace de décision politique à part entière, dont lesprérogatives et les interventions deviennent toujours plus palpables au niveau domestique. Cette thèseexplore les conséquences de ce processus sur la compétition électorale. Le questionnement de ladistinction populaire entre effets « directs » et « indirects » nourrit une réflexion sur les mécanismes parlesquels les partis sont affectés et nous conduit à conceptualiser l’intégration européenne comme unealtération de l’environnement et de la structure d’opportunités des partis, à travers l’européanisation despolitiques publiques et la mise sur agenda de nouveaux enjeux. Cette perspective permet à la fois de mieuxintégrer dans l’étude des partis le tournant interactionniste des recherches sur l’européanisation, etd’enrichir l’analyse en l’inscrivant dans des cadres théoriques depuis longtemps éprouvés pour étudier lespartis et la compétition politique. L’européanisation de la compétition électorale en France, en Allemagneet au Royaume-Uni entre 1986 et 2009 est étudiée au prisme des opportunités et des contraintes découlantde l’intégration, puis des réponses apportées par les acteurs partisans à différents niveaux. Notre enquêtes’appuie pour cela sur l’analyse d’un vaste corpus de documents, de données et de littérature, notammentsur la couverture médiatique des questions européennes, les orientations européennes discernables dansl’opinion publique des trois pays, l’européanisation des politiques publiques, les discours tenus lors descongrès des partis sociaux-démocrates et les programmes électoraux des différents partis. Nous observonsune européanisation différenciée, mais significative, de la structure d’opportunités des partis. En raison desrésistances déployées par les acteurs partisans qui dominent la compétition inter- et intra-partisane, cettetendance n’affecte les dynamiques de compétition électorale qu’à la marge. / European Union to establish itself as a full-fledged political space whose prerogatives and interventionsbecome more and more palpable at the domestic level. This thesis explores the consequences of thisprocess on party competition. The questioning of the popular distinction between « direct » and« indirect » effects nourishes a reflection about the mechanisms by which parties are affected and leads usto conceptualize European integration as an alteration of parties’ environment and structure ofopportunities, through the europeanisation of public policies and the agenda-setting of new issues. Thisperspective allows both to better integrate in the study of parties the « interactionnist » turn of research oneuropeanisation and to enrich the analysis by anchoring it within ordinary frameworks of parties andelectoral competition. The europeanisation of party competition in France, Germany and the United-Kingdom between 1986 and 2009 is studied from the perspective of opportunities and constraintsgenerated by European integration and, then, from the perspective of partisan actors’ reponses at severallevels. Our inquiry relies on the analysis of a vast corpus of documents, data and literature, notably on themedia coverage of European issues, European orientations in the public opinion of the three countries,europeanization of public policies, discourses held at the congresses of social-democratic parties andelectoral manifestos of the different parties. We observe a differentiated, but significative, europeanisationof parties’ structure of opportunities. Due to the resistances of the actors who dominate inter- and intrapartycompetition, this tendency affects the dynamics of party competition only marginally.

La question de la durée du mandat présidentiel est indissociable de la réflexion sur l’équilibre des pouvoirs et sur la nature de la Ve République. Le quinquennat présidentiel, envisagé en1973 puis définitivement adopté par référendum le 24 septembre 2000, s’inscrit dans un mouvement de présidentialisation des institutions entamé depuis 1962 et l’élection du Président de la République au suffrage universel. En prévoyant une durée de mandat égale pour le chef de l’Etat et l’Assemblée nationale, le quinquennat entend redéfinir la dyarchie exécutive et mettre fin à l’arythmie électorale et à la cohabitation. Alors que la Constitution de 1958 privilégiait la souplesse pour répondre à toutes les situations politiques, le quinquennat fait le choix de l’efficacité en favorisant la concordance des majorités parlementaire et présidentielle. Mais le quinquennat est davantage un commencement qu’une fin. Poursuivi par l’inversion du calendrier électoral en 2001 et par une révision constitutionnelle majeure en 2008, le quinquennat a ouvert la voie à un régime présidentiel dont les effets se font déjà sentir à travers la reconfiguration du rôle du chef de l’Etat, le renforcement du poids de l’élection présidentielle, la présidentialisation des partis politiques et la bipolarisation de l’espace partisan. Dix ans après son entrée en vigueur, le quinquennat place la Ve République face à un choix : corriger le présidentialisme majoritaire dans le cadre des institutions actuelles ou achever la transition vers la VIe République et le régime présidentiel. / The issue of the length of the presidential term of office cannot be separated from the question of the balance of power in the Fifth Republic, and thus the question of its very essence. The five-year term of presidency, foreseen in 1973 and definitively enacted by referendum on September 24, 2000, comes out of a tendency toward expansion of presidential powers since1962, as well as from the decision to elect the President of the Republic by direct popular vote. Aligning the five-year term with that of the Assemblée nationale redefines shared governance between the President and the Prime Minister by removing the electoral unbalance that created the “cohabitation” (i.e. opposing camps of political goals and parties inpower) as in the past. Although the 1958 Constitution stressed its ability to adapt to any political situation, the five-year term makes the clear choice of effectively favoring concurrent majorities, both parliamentary and presidential. However, this choice is more of a beginning than an end. In 2001 a new electoral agenda followed the five-year term reform. Subsequently, there was a major revision of the Constitution in 2008. As a result we have seen a reconfiguration of the President’s role, a net increase in the importance of presidential election, and finally, political and partisan polarization. Ten years after its inception, the five year term forces the Fifth Republic to choose either to adapt the majoritarian presidentialism within and among existing divisions of government or to initiate a transition toward a Sixth Republic and a purely presidential regime.

Along with the right-left economical dimension of positioning of political parties and voters, there is also dimension of division along cultural and value items which is described as authoritarianism - libertarianism axis or sometimes conservatism - liberalism. In new democracies the division along clear support for liberal democracy on the one hand and support or toleration of non liberal use of power on the other hand is often very important. We distinguish between authoritarianism as orientation with tendency towards support for restrictive and hierarchical politics, which in some cases lead to non liberal variant of formally democratic order, and cultural conservatism, which has its roots mainly in higher level of religiosity. Authoritarian and conservative tendencies are to certain level associated with each other, nevertheless they do not create an integral complex. There is evidence of a group with authoritarian value orientation and culturally liberal position at the same time; in Slovak conditions it is the case of the electorate of left wing party Smer (Direction). Examining the opinion cleavage among Slovak public along cultural and value questions, we identify the biggest conflict potential of the authoritarian items as the mode of political rule and nationalism. Next significant...

Desde a promulgação da atual Constituição da República Federativa do Brasil, em cinco de outubro de 1988, percebe-se que o fenômeno do ativismo judicial tem ganhado força nos Tribunais brasileiros nos mais variados assuntos, entre eles o direito político-eleitoral. Este trabalho visa a evidenciar este fenômeno no Brasil, mais precisamente por meio do estudo pormenorizado do caso da verticalização das coligações partidárias. A atuação do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, em fevereiro de 2002, a respeito da verticalização provocou o debate sobre o ativismo judicial na Imprensa, no Congresso Nacional e também entre juristas e cientistas políticos. A manutenção da interpretação do TSE pelo Supremo Tribunal Federal, por duas vezes, só veio a arregimentar ainda mais discussões sobre o tema. Houve movimentação por parte do Legislativo e de Partidos Políticos no sentido de extirpar definitivamente tal interpretação judicial do ordenamento jurídico brasileiro. Assim sendo, este trabalho compõe-se de análises sobre decisões de tribunais superiores (TSE e STF) em que o fenômeno do ativismo judicial foi identificado. De modo a contextualizar dogmaticamente a análise das decisões, serão abordados aspectos constitucionais e legais concernentes à Justiça Eleitoral, demonstrando como as decisões sobre a verticalização ultrapassaram a competência judicial sobre a matéria. Para contextualizar as decisões analisadas na jurisprudência dos tribunais superiores, serão retomados os julgamentos proferidos pelo Tribunal Superior Eleitoral e pelo Supremo Tribunal Federal em fidelidade partidária, regras de propaganda eleitoral, requisitos de elegibilidade (certidão de quitação eleitoral) e número de vereadores em cada município brasileiro. Por fim, a análise das decisões dos tribunais superiores a respeito da verticalização será contraposta aos limites legais e constitucionais previamente estudados, evidenciando, assim, o fenômeno do ativismo judicial no direito eleitoral. / Since the promulgation of the Constitution of the Federative Republic of Brazil, in October 5, 1988, the (phenomenon known as) judicial activism has built-up in strength on the Brazilian courts, being discussed in many cases, including those related to Election Law. This thesis intends to demonstrate this phenomenon occurrence in Brazil, more specifically by studying the case of vertical party coalitions. The performance of the Superior Electoral Court concerning the verticalization, in February 2002, raised the debate on judicial activism on the press, the Congress and also among jurists and political scientists. The preservation of the Superior Electoral Courts interpretation by the Supreme Federal Court has raised even more debates on the subject. Furthermore, the Legislative Power and some political parties also tried to exclude this judicial interpretation from the Brazilian legal system. Thus, this thesis consists on the analysis of superior courts decisions in which the phenomenon has occurred. Focusing on the its dogmatic contextualization, constitutional and legal aspects of the Electoral Justice will be discussed, demonstrating how the decisions on verticalization exceed the jurisdiction on that matter. To contextualize the decisions with the superior courts jurisprudence, the rulings of Supreme Federal Court and the Superior Electoral Court on party loyalty, campaign advertising, elegibility, and the maximum number of deputies in each Brazilian municipality will be examined. Finally, the analysis of the superior courts decisions concerning the verticalization will be faced in opposition to the legal and constitutional limits previously examined, demonstrating the existence of the judicial activism phenomenon on the Election Law.

O objetivo da presente dissertação é analisar o sistema normativo que rege o financiamento da atividade política no Brasil. Para tanto, o trabalho inicia com a abordagem das principais fragilidades apresentadas pelo sistema político-eleitoral brasileiro como um todo para que se possa entender melhor o contexto em que está envolvido o sistema normativo do financiamento da política no Brasil. Após, são analisadas as principais propostas de reforma legislativas do cenário político-eleitoral brasileiro. Nesse ínterim, ganha destaque as alterações propostas no sistema de financiamento de caráter misto atualmente vigente no Brasil. Posteriormente, há uma análise de todos os dispositivos legais referentes ao tema, a fim de se entender os problemas específicos do financiamento dos partidos políticos e das campanhas eleitorais brasileiras. Segue-se uma pesquisa empírica em que são estudadas as prestações de contas eleitorais apresentadas nas eleições presidenciais de 2002 e 2006, com o intuito de se observar se as premissas existentes na doutrina referente ao tema realmente se aplicam na prática. / The objective of this work is to analyze the normative system that conducts the financing of the activity politics in Brazil. For in such a way, the work initiates with the boarding of the main fragilities presented for Brazilian politician-electoral system as a whole so that if it can understand the context better where the normative system of the financing of the politics in Brazil is involved. After, the main legislative proposals of reform of the Brazilian politician-electoral scene are analyzed. In this meantime, it gains prominence the alterations proposals in the currently normative financing system in Brazil. Later, it has an analysis of all the referring legal devices to the subject, in order to understand the specific problems of the financing of the political parties and the Brazilian electoral campaigns. An empirical research is followed where the presented electoral renderings of accounts in the presidential elections of 2002 and 2006 are studied, with the intention of observing if the existing premises in the referring doctrine to the subject really they are applied in the practical one.

A Ciência Política no Brasil tem se preocupado, nos últimos anos, em compreender o comportamento dos partidos surgidos após o período de redemocratização. Dentre as possíveis variáveis capazes de servir para explicar o fenômeno estão as coligações eleitorais, ainda pouco exploradas nos estudos. O objetivo dessa tese é compreender a existência de uma lógica capaz de explicar o comportamento das legendas em seus acordos para a disputa de prefeituras em 2000 e 2004. O universo pesquisado compreende os cerca de 5.560 municípios brasileiros e mais de treze mil candidaturas por ano, onde serão destacados os dez principais partidos brasileiros - PP(B), PFL, PL, PTB, PMDB, PSDB, PPS, PDT, PSB e PT. Parte-se da hipótese central de que existem variáveis capazes de explicar parte significativa desse ordenamento. Para tanto, realizam-se duas análises cuidadosas: da bibliografia e das questões institucionais. Nessa primeira parte destacam-se os estudos brasileiros sobre as coligações, desenvolvidos a partir do período da redemocratização dos anos 80, e as considerações de dois teóricos dos partidos políticos e suas considerações sobre as alianças: Maurice Duverger e Ângelo Panebianco. Na segunda parte os esforços se concentram na análise das leis que orientam a celebração de acordos eleitorais e os estatutos dos partidos selecionados, uma vez que o quadro institucional do país torna as legendas relativamente livres para a celebração de suas coligações. As duas últimas partes do trabalho se concentram em investigar se o comportamento dos partidos nos seus acordos em eleições majoritárias municipais tem relação com aspectos ideológicos e governamentais no plano federal ou com aspectos ligados ao alinhamento das legendas em cada estado, com destaque para a relação situação x oposição em torno da forte figura do governador. A conclusão caminha no sentido de aceitar esse segundo ambiente. Os partidos se organizam nos estados, e tal questão tem reflexo sobre as eleições municipais. / Brazilian political science has occupied itself for the last few years with analyzing the behavior of political parties. One of the variables that has some explanation power, and as of yet underrated in the field, are pre-electoral coalitions. This PhD thesis aims to check if there is a logic behind the main parties behavior regarding pre-electoral coalitions for mayorships in the elections of 2000 and 2004. Over 5,560 cities and 13,000 candidacies are analyzed and the parties studied are Brazil\'s ten main political parties: PP(B), PFL, PL, PTB, PMDB, PSDB, PPS, PDT, PSB e PT. We depart from the notion that there are many relevant variables that can explain why certain parties enter coalitions with others. For starters, we review the sparse literature regarding pre-electoral coalitions worldwide and specifically in Brazil and the work of two great political scientists: Maurice Duverger and Angelo Panebianco. Then we analyze the ten parties statutes to see how they regard the issue, since federal electoral laws are relatively permissive. The two last chapters investigate if pre-electoral coalitions in municipal elections are related to ideological and coalitional matters at the federal level or at the state level. The data show that the parties tend to organize themselves according to the governor\'s political position.

Mercado Preditivo (MP) é uma ferramenta que utiliza o mecanismo de preço de mercado para agregar informações dispersas em um grande grupo de pessoas, visando à geração de previsões sobre assuntos de interesse. Trata-se de um método de baixo custo, capaz de gerar previsões de forma contínua e que não exige amostras probabilísticas. Há diversas aplicações para esses mercados, sendo que uma das principais é o prognóstico de resultados eleitorais. Este estudo analisou evidências empíricas da eficácia de um Mercado Preditivo no Brasil, criado para fazer previsões sobre os resultados das eleições gerais do ano de 2014, sobre indicadores econômicos e sobre os resultados de jogos do Campeonato Brasileiro de futebol. A pesquisa teve dois grandes objetivos: i) desenvolver e avaliar o desempenho de um MP no contexto brasileiro, comparando suas previsões em relação a métodos alternativos; ii) explicar o que motiva as pessoas a participarem do MP, especialmente quando há pouca ou nenhuma interação entre os participantes e quando as transações são realizadas com uma moeda virtual. O estudo foi viabilizado por meio da criação da Bolsa de Previsões (BPrev), um MP online que funcionou por 61 dias, entre setembro e novembro de 2014, e que esteve aberto à participação de qualquer usuário da Internet no Brasil. Os 147 participantes registrados na BPrev efetuaram um total de 1.612 transações, sendo 760 no tema eleições, 270 em economia e 582 em futebol. Também foram utilizados dois questionários online para coletar dados demográficos e percepções dos usuários. O primeiro foi aplicado aos potenciais participantes antes do lançamento da BPrev (302 respostas válidas) e o segundo foi aplicado apenas aos usuários registrados, após dois meses de experiência de uso da ferramenta (71 respostas válidas). Com relação ao primeiro objetivo, os resultados sugerem que Mercados Preditivos são viáveis no contexto brasileiro. No tema eleições, o erro absoluto médio das previsões do MP na véspera do pleito foi de 3,33 pontos percentuais, enquanto o das pesquisas de opinião foi de 3,31. Considerando todo o período em que o MP esteve em operação, o desempenho dos dois métodos também foi parecido (erro absoluto médio de 4,20 pontos percentuais para o MP e de 4,09 para as pesquisas). Constatou-se também que os preços dos contratos não são um simples reflexo dos resultados das pesquisas, o que indica que o mercado é capaz de agregar informações de diferentes fontes. Há potencial para o uso de MPs em eleições brasileiras, principalmente como complemento às metodologias de previsão mais tradicionais. Todavia, algumas limitações da ferramenta e possíveis restrições legais podem dificultar sua adoção. No tema economia, os erros foram ligeiramente maiores do que os obtidos com métodos alternativos. Logo, um MP aberto ao público geral, como foi o caso da BPrev, mostrou-se mais indicado para previsões eleitorais do que para previsões econômicas. Já no tema futebol, as previsões do MP foram melhores do que o critério do acaso, mas não houve diferença significante em relação a outro método de previsão baseado na análise estatística de dados históricos. No que diz respeito ao segundo objetivo, a análise da participação no MP aponta que motivações intrínsecas são mais importantes para explicar o uso do que motivações extrínsecas. Em ordem decrescente de relevância, os principais fatores que influenciam a adoção inicial da ferramenta são: prazer percebido, aprendizado percebido, utilidade percebida, interesse pelo tema das previsões, facilidade de uso percebida, altruísmo percebido e recompensa percebida. Os indivíduos com melhor desempenho no mercado são mais propensos a continuar participando. Isso sugere que, com o passar do tempo, o nível médio de habilidade dos participantes tende a crescer, tornando as previsões do MP cada vez melhores. Os resultados também indicam que a prática de incluir questões de entretenimento para incentivar a participação em outros temas é pouco eficaz. Diante de todas as conclusões, o MP revelou-se como potencial técnica de previsão em variados campos de investigação. / Prediction Market (PM) is a tool which uses the market price mechanism to aggregate information scattered in a large group of people, aiming at generating predictions about matters of interest. It is a low cost method, able to generate forecasts continuously and it does not require random samples. There are several applications for these markets and one of the main ones is the prognosis of election outcomes. This study analyzed empirical evidences on the effectiveness of Prediction Markets in Brazil, regarding forecasts about the outcomes of the general elections in the year of 2014, about economic indicators and about the results of the Brazilian Championship soccer games. The research had two main purposes: i) to develop and evaluate the performance of PMs in the Brazilian context, comparing their predictions to the alternative methods; ii) to explain what motivates people´s participation in PMs, especially when there is little or no interaction among participants and when the trades are made with a virtual currency (play-money). The study was made feasible by means of the creation of a prediction exchange named Bolsa de Previsões (BPrev), an online marketplace which operated for 61 days, from September to November, 2014, being open to the participation of any Brazilian Internet user. The 147 participants enrolled in BPrev made a total of 1,612 trades, with 760 on the election markets, 270 on economy and 582 on soccer. Two online surveys were also used to collect demographic data and users´ perceptions. The first one was applied to potential participants before BPrev launching (302 valid answers) and the second was applied only to the registered users after two-month experience in tool using (71 valid answers). Regarding the first purpose, the results suggest Prediction Markets to be feasible in the Brazilian context. On the election markets, the mean absolute error of PM predictions on the eve of the elections was of 3.33 percentage points whereas the one of the polls was of 3.31. Considering the whole period in which BPrev was running, the performance of both methods was also similar (PM mean absolute error of 4.20 percentage points and poll´s 4.09). Contract prices were also found as not being a simple reflection of poll results, indicating that the market is capable to aggregate information from different sources. There is scope for the use of PMs in Brazilian elections, mainly as a complement of the most traditional forecasting methodologies. Nevertheless, some tool limitations and legal restrictions may hinder their adoption. On markets about economic indicators, the errors were slightly higher than those obtained by alternative methods. Therefore, a PM open to general public, as in the case of BPrev, showed as being more suitable to electoral predictions than to economic ones. Yet, on soccer markets, PM predictions were better than the criterion of chance although there had not been significant difference in relation to other forecasting method based on the statistical analysis of historical data. As far as the second purpose is concerned, the analysis of people´s participation in PMs points out intrinsic motivations being more important in explaining their use than extrinsic motivations. In relevance descending order, the principal factors that influenced tool´s initial adoption are: perceived enjoyment, perceived learning, perceived usefulness, interest in the theme of predictions, perceived ease of use, perceived altruism and perceived reward. Individuals with better performance in the market are more inclined to continue participating. This suggests that, over time, participants´ average skill level tends to increase, making PM forecasts better and better. Results also indicate that the practice of creating entertainment markets to encourage participation in other subjects is ineffective. Ratifying all the conclusions, PM showed as being a prediction potential technique in a variety of research fields.