Syftet med detta examensarbete är att studera om scenariot off-grid är en potentiell riktning i framtidens svenska energilandskap, samt undersöka vad som kan driva en sådan utveckling. För detta examensarbete har en kvalitativ forskningsstrategi tillämpats, genom ett abduktivt förhållningssätt till funnen empiri och teori. En empirisk datainsamling har genomförts i form av semistrukturerade intervjuer med ett tiotal aktörer på den svenska elnätsmarknaden. Därefter har en tematisk analys utförts, där det empiriska materialet ställts mot teori. Studien påvisar att det idag finns flertalet faktorer som kan vara drivande för en utveckling mot ett off-grid elsystem. I studiens empiriska material går det att finna tecken på att flertalet informanter tror att en förändring av dagens svenska elsystem behövs. Dock hur troligt det är, att en sådan förändringsprocess sker, finner studien inga belägg eller grunder för. De faktorer som skulle driva utvecklingen mot ett elsystem som karaktäriseras som off-grid kan identifieras som prisutveckling, utveckling i andra sektorer, ändrad tariffsättning, decentralisering, lagstiftning, ökad popularitet samt exempel där off-grid har realiserats. / The purpose of this master thesis is to study whether the off- grid scenario is a potential direction in the Swedish energy landscape of the future, and to investigate what can drive such development. For this master thesis, a qualitative research strategy has been applied, through an abductive approach towards the found empirical material and theory. An empirical data collection has been carried out in the form of semi-structured interviews with ten actors in the Swedish electricity grid market. Subsequently, a thematic analysis has been carried out, in which the empirical material is set against the theory. The study shows that there today are several factors that can drive the development towards an off-grid electricity system in Sweden. In the study’s empirical material, it is possible to find signs that most informants believe that change in today’sSwedish electricity system is needed. However, how likely it is that such a change process will take place, the study finds no evidence for. The factors that would drive the development towards an electricity system characterized by off-grid can be identified as price development, development in other sectors, changed tariff set, decentralization, legislation, increased popularity and examples where off-grid has been realized.

This thesis deals with the steady operation and short-circuit conditions in the 110 kV network E.ON in a separate and parallel operation of nodal areas of Otrokovice substation and Sokolnice substation. The theoretical part is devoted to the calculation of steady state high-voltage systems using Newton's iterative method, transient phenomena that may occur in the power system short-circuit calculations and theories. The practical part deals with the actual calculations of steady state and short-circuit conditions in a separate and parallel operation of nodal areas Sokolnice-Otrokovice, which were calculated using the dispatching program. These calculations are then evaluated for possible use of involvement in actual operation. At the end there are suggestions on operational measures in the network 110 kV.

India's electricity system is faced with the challenges of meeting the growing demand for electricity, managing recurring shortages in supply and addressing concerns of global warming. India is adopting a two-pronged approach to address these challenges – (i) making huge investments in new technologies, and (ii) enacting new policies to promote low carbon initiatives. Together, they are believed to help in achieving energy security as well as mitigation of global warming. Such low carbon initiatives can alter the traditional electricity planning and provide with a wide set of supply options to achieve a transition in to a low carbon electricity planning (LCEP). At the outset, one has to explore the supply options for an optimal supply-demand matching of electricity. While finding out various alternatives to meet the demand on a continuous basis using existing supply, non-supply and future supply options, the technology challenges of low carbon options, renewable energy policies and emissions policies need to be studied in detail from the perspective of a developing country keeping India as a focus. The effectiveness of renewable energy and emissions policy interventions such as Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO), Renewable Energy Certificate (REC), Renewable Energy Certificate Excess (RECX), Emission Tax and Emission Cap-and-Trade and emission policies need to be assessed. Based on the analysis of the literature review, it appears that there is no mathematical model for optimally matching the supply with electricity demand simultaneously considering all the complexities for LCEP discussed in this study. The overall objective of the research is to develop, validate and apply a set of mathematical models to address a complex research problem of "LCEP of existing supply, non-supply and future supply options in the presence of technology and policy interventions to achieve a least-cost, low carbon and sustainable electricity system". This complex research problem is decomposed into five independent LCEP problems based on real-life situations. For each of these five LCEP problems, a mathematical model is proposed. For generating the five proposed mathematical models for any given data, LINGO Set Codes have been developed. In order to validate the proposed mathematical models, data was collected from the Karnataka state electricity system. For the collected data, the proposed mathematical models are generated using the LINGO Set Codes and solved using LINGO. From the optimal solutions, insights are drawn on the impact and effectiveness of low carbon interventions on the present electricity system which is in a transition towards a low carbon electricity system. It is our belief that the proposed mathematical models can act as a basis for introducing any new low carbon interventions such as energy efficiency certificates, auction based tariff mechanisms for renewable energy pricing, and other new REC interventions in the future scope.

The transition of the North African electricity system towards renewable energy technologies is analyzed in this thesis. Large potentials of photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and onshore wind power provide the opportunity to achieve a long-term shift from conventional power sources to a highly interconnected and sustainable electricity system based on renewable energy sources (RES). A multi-dimensional analysis evaluates the economic and technical effects on the electricity market as well as the socio-economic impact on manufacturing and employment caused by the large deployment of renewable energy technologies. The integration of renewable energy (RE) into the electricity system is modeled in a linear optimization model RESlion which minimizes total system costs of the long-term expansion planning and the hourly generation dispatch problem. With this model, the long-term portfolio mix of technologies, their site selection, required transmission capacities and the hourly operation are analyzed. The focus is set on the integration of renewable energy in the electricity systems of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt with the option to export electricity to Southern European countries. The model results of RESlion show that a very equal portfolio mix consisting of PV, CSP and onshore wind power is optimal in long-term scenarios for the electricity system. Until the year 2050, renewable energy sources dominate with over 70% the electricity generation due to their cost competiveness to conventional power sources. In the case of flexible and dispatchable electricity exports to Europe, all three RE technologies are used by the model at a medium cost perspective. The socio-economic impact of the scenarios is evaluated by a decision model (RETMD) for local manufacturing and job creation in the renewable energy sector which is developed by incorporating findings from expert interviews in the RE industry sector. The electricity scenarios are assessed regarding their potential to create local economic impact and local jobs in manufacturing RE components and constructing RE power plants. With 40,000 to 100,000 new jobs in the RE sector of North African countries, scenarios with substantial RE deployment can provide enormous benefits to the labor market and lead to additional economic growth. The deployment of renewable energy sources in North Africa is consequently accelerated and facilitated by finding a trade-off between an optimal technology portfolio from an electricity system perspective and the opportunities through local manufacturing. By developing two model approaches for evaluating the effects of renewable energy technologies in the electricity system and in the industrial sector, this thesis contributes to the literature on energy economics and energy policy for the large-scale integration of renewable energy in North Africa.

Distribution network 110 kV owned by E. ON in the area Otrokovice; powered by 110 kV and two variants of involvement contained.The first option is basic involvement, without the use of the bridge. The second option includes involvement with the bridge. The aim of this study is to compare; by calculating the steady-state network operation and short circuit conditions of the network, the involvement of these two options. The thesis is divided into two parts, theoretical and practical. The theoretical part consists of a description of the steady operation of networks of high-voltage and short circuit ratio calculations. Load flow calculations are described by the Gauss-Seidel and Newton iterative method. In the case of short-circuit conditions, the effects of their characteristic values, processes and various methods of calculation are described.In the second part, this theoretical knowledge is applied to input data and dispatching programme with the appropriate calculations of network operation and short circuit conditions. The calculated values are listed in the thesis, on the basis of which an evaluation of the two possible connections is made.

The master’s thesis deals with a calculation of steady state and short-circuit conditions in a 110 kV system during a bridge operation of transformers in a Sokolnice substation. The theoretical part of the thesis deals with a calculation of steady state of a system using Newton’s iterative method, it investigates short-circuits – their timing, distinctive values and a method of their calculation. In the practical part the 100 kV grid supplied from Sokolnice substation is described. The main goal of the thesis is a comparation of two basic wirings: bridge operation of T202 and T203 transformers (contemporarily in service) and bridge operation of T402 and T403 (in service after 2017). These two wirings were controlled even during one state of emergency during which the Sokolnice substation will be affected by an outage of one busbar. Voltage conditions, loading of power line and transformers and overall power balance were controlled. Short-circuit conditions were also calculated and short-circuit resistance of particular substations was inspected. In the conclusion technical measures needed to ensure smooth bridge operation of convertors T402 and T403.

The transition of the North African electricity system towards renewable energy technologies is analyzed in this thesis. Large potentials of photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and onshore wind power provide the opportunity to achieve a long-term shift from conventional power sources to a highly interconnected and sustainable electricity system based on renewable energy sources (RES). A multi-dimensional analysis evaluates the economic and technical effects on the electricity market as well as the socio-economic impact on manufacturing and employment caused by the large deployment of renewable energy technologies. The integration of renewable energy (RE) into the electricity system is modeled in a linear optimization model RESlion which minimizes total system costs of the long-term expansion planning and the hourly generation dispatch problem. With this model, the long-term portfolio mix of technologies, their site selection, required transmission capacities and the hourly operation are analyzed. The focus is set on the integration of renewable energy in the electricity systems of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt with the option to export electricity to Southern European countries. The model results of RESlion show that a very equal portfolio mix consisting of PV, CSP and onshore wind power is optimal in long-term scenarios for the electricity system. Until the year 2050, renewable energy sources dominate with over 70% the electricity generation due to their cost competiveness to conventional power sources. In the case of flexible and dispatchable electricity exports to Europe, all three RE technologies are used by the model at a medium cost perspective. The socio-economic impact of the scenarios is evaluated by a decision model (RETMD) for local manufacturing and job creation in the renewable energy sector which is developed by incorporating findings from expert interviews in the RE industry sector. The electricity scenarios are assessed regarding their potential to create local economic impact and local jobs in manufacturing RE components and constructing RE power plants. With 40,000 to 100,000 new jobs in the RE sector of North African countries, scenarios with substantial RE deployment can provide enormous benefits to the labor market and lead to additional economic growth. The deployment of renewable energy sources in North Africa is consequently accelerated and facilitated by finding a trade-off between an optimal technology portfolio from an electricity system perspective and the opportunities through local manufacturing. By developing two model approaches for evaluating the effects of renewable energy technologies in the electricity system and in the industrial sector, this thesis contributes to the literature on energy economics and energy policy for the large-scale integration of renewable energy in North Africa.:Abstract iii Acknowledgement iv Table of contents v List of tables ix List of figures xii List of abbreviations xvi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Renewable energy in North Africa 2 1.2 Research questions and aim of this thesis 3 1.2.1 Modeling of electricity systems 4 1.2.2 Modeling of manufacturing and employment impact 6 1.2.3 Optimal renewable energy scenarios 6 1.3 Related research 7 1.4 Structure of thesis 7 2 Modeling fundamentals for electricity systems with renewable energy sources 9 2.1 Energy system modeling 9 2.2 Electricity models 16 2.2.1 Classifications and taxonomy 17 2.2.2 Differences between operation models and planning models 20 2.2.3 Typical modeling approaches 21 2.3 Optimization models 23 2.3.1 Basic model structure 23 2.3.2 Objective functions of electricity models 24 2.3.3 Technical aspects of electricity systems as models constraints 26 2.3.4 Combining different objectives in energy scenarios 27 2.4 Models for high shares of renewable energy 28 2.5 Models for North African electricity systems 31 2.6 Conclusions for model development 34 3 Electricity system of North Africa 36 3.1 Market structure 36 3.2 National targets for renewable energy 40 3.2.1 Morocco 40 3.2.2 Algeria 41 3.2.3 Tunisia 42 3.2.4 Libya 42 3.2.5 Egypt 43 3.3 Long-term development of electricity demand 44 3.4 Electricity exports to Europe 47 3.5 Geopolitical risks for the electricity system 51 4 Development of the electricity market model RESlion 53 4.1 Model requirements and modeling goals 53 4.2 Modeling of renewable energy technologies 56 4.2.1 Onshore wind power plants and wind resources 59 4.2.2 PV power plants and solar resources 61 4.2.3 CSP plants and solar resources 63 4.2.4 Hydro power plants and energy storage systems 65 4.3 General model approach of RESlion 65 4.4 Model description of RESlion 69 4.4.1 Introduction to the model structure 69 4.4.2 Temporal coverage 70 4.4.3 Objective function 72 4.4.4 Technology independent model constraints 74 4.4.5 Regional electricity exchange: Transmission lines 76 4.4.6 Renewable energy technologies 78 4.4.7 Hydro and storage power plants 80 4.4.8 Uncertainty of input parameters and assumptions 81 4.5 Modeling of expansion planning 83 4.6 Modeling of detailed hourly generation dispatch 83 4.7 Extension options to a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model 84 4.8 Solver selection and implementation environment 85 5 Model-based analysis of future electricity scenarios for North Africa 86 5.1 Scenario assumptions 86 5.2 Scenario definition 89 5.3 Technical and economic input data 94 5.4 Model adjustment 99 5.4.1 Electricity generation in reference year 2010 99 5.4.2 Testing of results with detailed hourly generation dispatch 100 5.5 Electricity scenarios for North Africa by 2050 102 5.5.1 Development of the generation system 102 5.5.2 System and generation costs 106 5.5.3 Site selection of RES generation capacities 108 5.5.4 Regional transmission lines 114 5.5.5 Energy storage systems 118 5.5.6 Technology specific generation 119 5.5.7 CO2 emissions 126 5.6 Sensitivity analyses 126 5.6.1 Adaption of market conditions: Split of electricity markets 127 5.6.2 Technology focus 127 5.6.3 Adaption of cost trends for fossil fuels, transmission lines and storage systems 129 5.7 Technology specific findings for CSP, PV and wind power 131 5.7.1 Typical sites and locations for electricity generation from RES 131 5.7.2 Influence of wind speeds and solar irradiation 131 5.7.3 Interactions with conventional power plants 132 5.8 Electricity scenarios with export to Europe 133 5.9 Discussion of RESlion model and its results 139 6 Model development for socio-economic impact analysis 142 6.1 The idea of combining a cost-optimized electricity system with a socio-economic analysis 142 6.2 Literature review and terminology 145 6.3 Data acquisition and further studies 148 6.4 Model description of RETMD 151 6.4.1 Model objectives 151 6.4.2 Model structure and decision modeling 152 6.4.3 Model limitations and uncertainties 156 6.5 Data input of RETMD 157 6.5.1 Construction of reference power plants 157 6.5.2 Operation of reference power plants 159 6.5.3 Status quo of local manufacturing in recent RE projects 160 6.6 Sensitivity of RETMD on market size and know-how 161 6.7 Discussion of model achievements 163 7 Manufacturing and employment impact of optimized electricity scenarios 165 7.1 Demand scenarios for the RE markets from 2012 to 2030 165 7.2 Economic impact and employment creation 166 7.3 Technology specific development of local manufacturing 168 7.4 Country specific development of local manufacturing 172 7.5 Potentials of local manufacturing in each scenarios 174 7.6 Local economic impact 176 7.7 Local employment impact 177 7.8 Evaluation of scenario results 181 7.9 Electricity system analysis and RE manufacturing: Results and discussion of the combined analysis 183 8 Conclusions and outlook 186 8.1 Conclusion on model developments 186 8.2 Conclusion on renewable energy in North Africa 187 8.3 Outlook and further research 189 9 Bibliography 191 10 Appendix 210

In an electrical system there needs to be a constant balance between supply and demand ofelectricity and this is measured by the frequency in the grid. Due to the increasing awarenessof climate change, more renewable energy resources have been introduced in the Swedishelectricity system. This is, however, not solely positive since renewable energy sources areoften of intermittent character which entails more imbalances between supply and demand. Inaddition, statistics and data show that the deviation in the frequency in the Nordic system hasincreased during the latest years. Thus, in this thesis, the issues regarding the frequency havebeen addressed by examining the demand for frequency control in the Swedish electricitysystem and what balancing efforts that can be carried out on a local level to contribute to abetter balanced system. This thesis has been conducted at KTH Royal Institute of Technologywith collaboration with the commissioner Mälarenergi AB. A case study of the Swedish electricity system has been carried out to gather empiricalmaterial and this material has been analyzed using Geels theory on technical transitions, themulti-level perspective. The results indicates that it is likely the demand for frequency controlwill increase, and this is due to factors as more intermittent energy, current market design fortrading electricity, overseas transmission connections, decommissioning of nuclear powerand limited internal transmission capacity. Three other developments have been identified,which could have a large impact on the demand in the future, as an increasing use of electricvehicles, prosumers and the deployment of IoT in the energy sector. These developmentshave not been integrated to a large extent yet in the energy sector and thus have a moreuncertain impact. In terms of resources, the thesis has identified that it is likely that hydropower will continueto be the main resource for frequency regulation. Another source that could be used morefrequently than today and possibly compete with hydropower is combined heat and powerplants. Furthermore, the study has found that local actors can contribute by advertisingsmaller local resources on a market for trading regulating power called“reglerkraftmarknaden”, that balance providing companies collaborate, that the load iscontrolled in the local grids or that smaller local production facilities are operated in standalonemode during extreme situations. / För att uppnå ett välfungerande elektrisk system så måste det vara en konstant balans mellan produktion och konsumtion av el i systemet. Den här balansen mäts genom att mäta frekvensen i elnätet. Eftersom allt fler har blivit mer medvetna om de klimatförändringar vår planet står inför har det successivt införts mer och mer förnybara energikällor i det svenska elsystemet. Den här utvecklingen har inte enbart varit positivt, eftersom förnybara energikällor ofta är av intermittent karaktär, vilket har medfört att balansen mellan produktion och konsumtion av el har försämrats. Flertalet undersökningar har påvisat att det förekommer mer frekvensavvikelser i det nordiska elsystemet idag än tidigare. Denna rapport har således undersökt dessa problem genom att analysera efterfrågan på frekvensreglering i det svenska elsystemet och vilka initiativ som kan tas på lokal nivå för att förbättra balansen i elsystemet. Rapporten har genomförts på Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan i samarbete med uppdragsgivaren Mälarenergi AB. Rapporten har genomfört en fallstudie av det svenska elsystemet för att samla in empiriskt material, och detta material har i sin tur analyserats genom Geels flernivåsansats. De resultat som har framkommit i undersökningen visar på att det är troligt att efterfrågan av frekvensreglering kommer att öka. Denna ökning beror på faktorer som att mer intermittent energi integreras i elnätet, hur marknaden för att handla elektricitet är utformad, fler utländska överföringsförbindelser, nedrustning av kärnkraft och begränsad överföringskapacitet inom det nationella elnätet. Tre andra utvecklingar har identifierats som möjligen kan ha en stor påverkan på behovet av frekvensreglering. Dessa är ett ökat antal elektriska fordon, prosumenter och att energisektorn integreras av IoT och smarta objekt i större utsträckning än idag. Dessa faktorer har inte integrerats i det svenska elsystemet nämnvärt ännu och deras påverkan är därmed mer osäker. Denna studie har också kommit fram till att vattenkraft troligtvis kommer fortsätta att vara den resurs som används mest för frekvensreglering, men även att kraftvärmeverk har potential att användas mer för reglering än idag. Vidare har rapporten även identifierat att lokala aktörer kan bidra till en bättre balans i systemet genom att antingen annonsera mindre lokala resurser på reglerkraftmarknaden, öka samarbetet mellan balansansvariga företag, kontrollera lasten i lokala elnät eller att mindre lokala produktionsanläggningar drivs i ö-drift under extrema situationer.

In the distribution network 110 kV of E.ON Company there are the nodal areas of Čebin substation and Sokolnice substation which are operated separately at the present time. There is one 400/110 kV transformer for each nodal area. In case of fault on one of these transformers or on busbar in which the set transformer is working, it comes to an outage of electric supply in the set nodal area. This problem has to be solved with help of the parallel operation of nodal areas of Čebín substation and Sokolnice substation. The main and also the practical task of this work is to design the bridge connection appropriate for parallel operation of nodal areas (supply transformers 400/110 kV). With help of a computing program there were made calculations of steady state and short-circuit conditions in distribution network 110 kV for separated and parallel operation of nodal areas. Voltage conditions, load of transformers (400/110 kV and 110/vn kV) and conditions on 110 kV lines are evaluated and controlled as the result of steady state calculations. Based on short-circuit conditions there is controlled the short-circuit resistance of the substations. Finally there are compared advantages and disadvantages of separated and parallel operations of nodal areas. If necessary, technical arrangements required for introduction of parallel operation of nodal areas of Čebín substation and Sokolnice substation will be designed. The theoretical part of the work deals with calculation of steady state with help of iterative methods, namely Newton´s and Gauss-Seidel methods. There are further described the method of calculating short-circuit currents, characteristic values and time behaviours of short-circuit current.

In the summer of 2007, a single neighbourhood in downtown Toronto contributed at least 13 percent of all residential grid???tie solar photovoltaic (PV) systems sold in the Canadian province of Ontario. On average, PV purchaser households produced 37 percent as much electricity as they consumed. This research investigates solar energy adoption in a community case study. Specifically, it investigates why some residents who sign up for a solar resource assessment through a community solar energy initiative (CSEI) decide to purchase, and others decide not to purchase in the short???term. Characteristics and perceptions of potential adopters are analyzed to better understand their motivations and barriers to adoption. Community energy projects became an official public policy goal in Ontario, with the passing of the Green Energy and Green Economy Act in 2009. Approximately 80 percent of Ontario???s anticipated generation capacity will need to be built, replaced or refurbished within 15 years. In this context, the Ontario Ministry of Energy, Ontario Power Authority, and Deloitte (one of Canada???s leading professional services firms), have partnered with a ???green benefit??? fund, the Community Power Fund, to help local community groups access resources to develop and establish renewable energy projects. Understanding solar energy adoption in a community context is therefore important to improve the effectiveness of such policies, including the disbursement of multi???million dollar grant funds. Differences between purchasers and non???purchasers in respect of adoption behaviour were found in this study to cluster around two general themes. The first theme concerns differences in compatibility of both the concept of solar energy systems, and their physical attributes, with characteristics of potential adopter households. Some compatibility issues are straightforward, e.g. availability of roof space with a southern orientation. Others are more complex, involving several interrelated perceptual and socio???demographic factors. For instance, while both purchasers and non???purchasers rated cost as a very important barrier, purchasers rated the motivation of solar energy systems to reduce climate change higher relative to the barrier of high financial costs than did non???purchasers. Purchasers were also more likely to possess a graduate degree, while non???purchasers were more likely to hold a professional degree. The second general theme relates to potential adopters??? trust and stake in the ability of the community???based initiative to reduce barriers in the adoption process. Since two types of solar energy systems are considered in the case study???PV and thermal (hot water)???differences are explored between each of three respondent groups: solar PV purchasers, solar hot water (SHW) purchasers, and non???purchasers. iv Surveys were used to gather data on adopter perceptions and characteristics. A participatory research design helped identify the research topic. Two main bodies of literature???community???based social marketing (CBSM) and diffusion of innovations theory???were drawn upon to conceptualize the adoption process and interpret the survey findings. These include five models of human behaviour that can be used to guide the design of CBSM campaigns. Diffusion theory was used as a basis for discussing ???perceived innovation attributes???. The study takes an integrated approach by considering both social and technical aspects of solar energy adoption, together with the issues of fuel substitution and household electricity demand.