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[pt] Ao longo dos últimos 20 anos as economias aumentaram seus estoques de reservas internacionais de forma acelerada. As reservas globais passaram de aproximadamente um trilhão de dólares em 1990, para mais de cinco trilhões de dólares em 2006. Este processo também pode ser observado no Brasil, principalmente nos últimos dois anos, onde o estoque de reservas passou de aproximadamente 60 bilhões de dólares no fim de 2005 para mais de 180 bilhões de dólares no fim de 2007. Neste estudo, fazemos uma análise custobenefício das reservas internacionais, levando em consideração o seu papel como mitigadora tanto da probabilidade de ocorrência quanto do custo da crise, uma vez esta instaurada. Nossos resultados indicam que maiores reservas, representadas pela razão Reserva/Dívida Externa de Curto Prazo, são significantes em reduzir o custo e a probabilidade de crise. Além disso, encontramos que os níveis de reservas acumulados pela maioria dos países emergentes analisados são ótimos para valores razoáveis de custo de crise e de custo de manter reservas. No entanto, o caso brasileiro é uma exceção, pois o acúmulo de reservas internacionais nos últimos dois anos parece ser excessivo, não podendo ser explicado pelo modelo estimado. / [en] Over the past 20 years, economies have increased their levels of international reserves at a rapid pace. Global reserves went from approximately one trillion dollars in 1990, to over five trillion dollars in 2006. This trend can also be observed in Brazil, especially over the past two years, when the stock of reserves increased from about 60 billion dollars by the end of 2005 to more than 180 billion dollars by the end of 2007. In this study, we make a cost-benefit analysis of international reserves, taking into account its role in mitigating both the probability of a crisis, and the cost of a crisis once it happens. Our results show that higher reserves, represented by the Reserves/Short Term External Debt ratio, are significant in decreasing the cost and probability of a crisis. Furthermore, we find that the levels of reserves accumulated by the majority of the emerging economies analyzed are optimum for reasonable values of cost of crisis and cost of reserves. However, the Brazilian case is an exception, since the reserves accumulated in the past two years seem excessive, not being explained by the model estimated.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2015. / Researchers have suggested that emerging markets’ activity is driven largely by unlisted companies. These companies are dynamic, and show a relatively equitable income distribution. However, they operate under severe challenges which can be a deterrent to their success. In spite of these difficulties, the companies form exceptional investment targets due to their innovative abilities, ability to customize products and formulate business models that reduce bottlenecks and input costs as well as take advantage of economies of scale and scope. Important risk factors such as: political, currency, corporate governance and information risks, amongst others, should be factored in during the valuation process of emerging market companies. In this paper, several criteria are used to assess thirteen popular emerging market valuation models’ ability to effectively incorporate these risks. Based on the outcomes of the assessment a best fit model is selected. However, none of the emerging market valuation models explicitly factor in irrationality of market participants. In order to address this, the study focuses on seven behavioural approaches to valuation under the assumption of investor rationality and managerial overconfidence and/or optimism, with a purpose to select one to include in the above mentioned “best fit” emerging market valuation models. Next, assessment mechanisms for adapting these two models for private company valuation were flagged by discussing approaches currently used in academia and corporate finance. Finally, possible means of combining the three objectives, and assessing the success of doing so, as an area for further research, were recommended. Key Words: emerging markets, valuation, risk premium, country risk, systematic risk, unsystematic risk, private companies, managerial overconfidence, managerial optimism, irrationality, efficient markets, capital asset pricing model

This study investigates the peer effect in the asset pricing models in the international stock market. The peer effect theory proposes a dependence between individual decisions due to interactions that create a social network structure. The idea is that we need to understand the correlation between outcomes of individuals that interact in an environment and which could lead to a homogenous pattern of movement especially on asset pricing models. We use a sample of almost 7,000 companies listed on fourteen countries from 2006 to 2016 and arrange them in four peer groups. Since the peer effect has a reflection problem, we divide our empirical models in two aspects. First, we analyze the relationship between stock return from the firm, its financial aspects and the financial aspects for the peer group using a fixed effect regressor. Then, we try to understand the relationship between stock return from a firm, the stock return from the peer firms, the financial aspects from the firm and the financial aspects for the peer group by estimating a 2SLS model with an instrumental variable. Our findings show the existence of peer effects on stock return for all the peer groups. Also, the effects are always positive regardless if we select emerging or developed markets. Moreover, there is exogenous peer effect from the characteristics of the peer firms in the stock return that depends on the indicator and the peer group. Market-to-book ratio of the peers presents a positive relationship with the stock return. As a robustness test, we re-estimate the models for two subsamples and find that the results are consistent to the previous ones. / Este estudo investiga o efeito dos pares nos modelos de precificação de ativos no mercado acionário internacional. A teoria do efeito de pares propõe uma dependência entre decisões individuais devido a interações que criam uma estrutura de rede social. A ideia é entender a correlação entre os resultados de indivíduos que interagem em um ambiente e que podem levar a um padrão de movimento homogêneo, especialmente em modelos de precificação de ativos. Utiliza-se uma amostra de quase 7.000 empresas de capital aberto em catorze países de 2006 a 2016 considerando quatro grupos de referência. Como o efeito par tem o conhecido problema de reflexão, divide-se os modelos empíricos em dois aspectos. Primeiro, analisa-se a relação entre o retorno das ações, os aspectos financeiros da firma e os aspectos financeiros do grupo de referência utilizando um modelo de efeito fixo em painel. Em seguida, busca-se entender a relação entre o retorno das ações de uma empresa, o retorno das ações das empresas pares, os aspectos financeiros de ambas, estimando um modelo 2SLS com uma variável instrumental. Os resultados mostram a existência de comovimento no retorno das ações para todos os grupos de referência. Os efeitos do retorno das ações dos pares são positivos e mais intensos para a indústria e país independentemente se se escolhe mercados emergentes ou desenvolvidos. Além disso, existe um efeito de pares exógeno a partir das características das empresas pares, principalmente para razão market-to-book, que depende do indicador financeiro e do grupo de referência. Como teste de robustez, reestimou-se os modelos para duas subamostras que mostraram resultados consistentes com os anteriores.

A cafeína está presente no cotidiano humano desde o tradicional café até como constituinte de medicamentos, estimulantes, chás, chocolate entre outros produtos alimentícios. Essa substância é considerada um contaminante orgânico emergente provindo de águas residuárias não tratadas. Sua presença nos corpos hídricos vem sendo documentada em baixas concentrações, desde ηg.L-1 até µg.L-1 e os efeitos dessas concentrações nos organismos aquáticos ainda não foram efetivamente investigados. Com o objetivo de avaliar os efeitos tóxicos da cafeína em concentrações comumentemente encontradas em corpos hídricos, foram realizados testes de ecotoxicidade aguda e crônica com os organismos-teste Chironomus sancticaroli e Daphnia magna e intergeracional com C. sancticaroli, com enfoque em respostas biológicas de mortalidade, imobilidade, crescimento, desenvolvimento e reprodução. Como resultado, a cafeína não apresentou toxicidade aguda no teste de curta duração realizado para D. magna e C. sancticaroli. Foi observado efeito de toxicidade crônica da cafeína, havendo interferência no desenvolvimento das larvas de Chironomus principalmente na concentração de 200 µg.L-1 e no crescimento e reprodução de D. magna, na qual foi observada indução na produção de neonatos e desaceleração para o desenvolvimento do organismo (retardo no processo de ecdise). No teste intergeracional, foram observadas mudanças nos padrões de desenvolvimento larval. Os resultados demonstram que a cafeína, em concentrações ambientalmente detectadas, pode causar pequenas alterações no ciclo de vida dos organismos, como por exemplo, alterações no tamanho das asas das fêmeas e no comprimento do corpo das larvas de C. sancticaroli. Recomendam-se o uso de técnicas biomoleculares para avaliar as respostas metabólicas dos organismos quando exposto à cafeína em baixas concentrações. / Caffeine is present in human daily life either as traditional coffee or constituent of medicines, stimulants, teas, chocolate, among other products. This substance is an emerging organic contaminant from untreated wastewater. Its presence in aquatic systems has been documented at low concentrations, from ηg.L-1 to µg.L-1 and the effects of these concentrations on aquatic organisms have not yet been effectively investigated. In order to evaluate the toxic effects of caffeine, at concentrations usually found in aquatic systems, acute and chronic ecotoxicological tests were performed with Chironomus sancticaroli and Daphnia magna and, an intergenerational with C. sancticaroli, focusing on biological responses of mortality, immobility, growth, development and reproduction. As a result, caffeine did not present acute toxicity in the shor-term test performed for D. magna and C. sancticaroli. Chronic toxicity of caffeine was observed, with interference in the Chironomus larvae development, mainly in the concentration of 200 µg.L-1, and in the growth and reproduction of D. magna, in which it was observed presence of induction in the production of neonates and deceleration to the development of the organism (delay in the process of ecdysis). In intergeneration test, changes in the larval developmental patterns were observed. In intergenerational testing, changes in larval developmental patterns were observed. The results demonstrate that caffeine, in concentrations detected environmentally, can cause small influences in the organism\'s life cycle of the, for example, changes in the size of the wings of the females and in the length of the body of the larvae of C. sancticaroli. The use of biomolecular techniques to evaluate the metabolic responses of organisms when exposed to caffeine at low concentrations is recommended.

Les zoonoses émergentes sont en augmentation au cours des dernières décennies. Ainsi, il y est urgent de comprendre les mécanismes de cette émergence, en particulier d’étudier les facteurs écologiques sous-jacents qui déterminent les transferts de ces maladies de l’animal à l’homme.Originaire d’Asie, le moustique tigre Aedes albopictus est arrivé au Brésil dans les années 80 et s’est établi dans 60% des villes brésiliennes. Les forêts brésiliennes sont considérées comme un point chaud de la biodiversité mondiale, abritant des centaines d'arbovirus zoonotiques. Ces forêts que, par fois, cercles des grandes agglomérations urbaines, souffrent de la transformation du paysage réalisé par l’homme, un terreau idéal pour l'apparition de zoonoses. Cette espèce représente une préoccupation majeure pour la transmission d’arbovirus épidémiques (Dengue, Chikungunya, Zika) mais également une menace potentielle pour l’émergence de maladies zoonotiques en raison de sa présence dans les interfaces ville / forêt, de son comportement alimentaire opportuniste et de sa compétence vectorielle pour nombreux virus. Ainsi, Ae. albopictus pourrait potentiellement jouer le rôle de vecteur pont pour le transfert en milieu urbain de arbovirus zoonotiques qui circulent dans les forêts brésiliennes. Dans cette étude, nous évaluons le potentiel de cette espèce à servir de vecteur de pont entre la faune et l'homme. Pour cette proposition (i) Nous avons effectué une recherche et une analyse bibliographiques portant sur trois éléments clés permettant d’évaluer la capacité de ce moustique à assurer le transfert interspécifique des arbovirus dans les zones sylvatiques : 1) la capacité à exploiter les sites de reproduction larvaire naturels, 2) le comportement alimentaire et 3) la compétence vectorielle pour les dif férentes arbovirus. (ii) Nous avons étudié sur le terrain la colonisation, la dispersion, le comportement trophic et l'impact sur la biodiversité d'Ae. albopictus dans l'interface ville / forêt au Brésil. Ce travail de terrain a été réalisé à partir de dix écosystèmes de fragments de forêts dans trois Biomes au Brésil: 1) Biome Amazonia dans la réserve forestière d'Adolpho Ducke à Manaus; 2) Biome Mata Atlantica dans la réserve forestière de Pedra Branca à Rio de Janeiro, dans les fragments de forêt urbaine à Salvador, Serra, Belo Horizonte et dans les fragments de forêt rurale à Domingos Martins, Simonésia, Casimiro de Abreu, Marica-RJ; Biome Cerrado dans la forêt de Morro dos Macacos à Goiania. Dans cette thèse nous avons confirmé qu’Ae. albopictus a la capacité de coloniser des sites de reproduction naturels avec un comportement alimentaire opportuniste et une claire préférence pour les sources de sang humain, suivi par d'autres mammifères et oiseaux. Nous observons que le processus de colonisation et de dispersion est limité à la bordure de la forêt avec un impact sur la composition des espèces dans ces environnements. Nous avons observé également que ce moustique est capable de transmettre 13 arbovirus dans notre recherche bibliografic, mais aucun arbovirus n’a été détecté chez des moustiques prélevés lors du travail de terrain. Globalement, nos résultats confirment et estiment le rôle potentiel d’Ae. albopictus comme vecteur pont des maladies zoonotiques aux interfaces forêt / ville au Brésil. Ces travaux ouvrent un domaine de recherche dans lequel de nouvelles investigations pourraient évaluer le risque potentiel de propagation des maladies zoonotiques des zones forestières aux zones urbaines, dans le but de limiter les futures émergences virales. / Zoonotic emerging diseases are increasing during the last decades. There is an urgent need to understand the mechanisms of this emergence, in particular to study the underlying ecological factors determining spill-over events, the transfer from animals to humans. Being native from Asia, the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus arrived to Brazil in the 80’s being nowadays established in 60% of brazilian cities. Brazilian forests are considered a hotspot of wildlife biodiversity, harbouring hundreds of zoonotic arboviruses, suffering human landscape transformation and surrounding large urban cities, an optimal breeding ground for the emergence of zoonotic diseases. This species represents a major concern for the transmission of epidemic arboviruses (dengue, chikungunya, Zika) but also a potential threat for the emergence of zoonotic diseases due to its presence in urban/forest interfaces, its opportunistic feeding behavior and its vector competence to transmit numerous viruses. Thus, Ae. albopictus might potentially participate as a bridge vector for the transfer to urban environments of zoonotic arboviruses that are circulating on Brazilian forests. In this study we evaluate the potential of this species to act as a bridge vector between wildlife and humans. For this propose (i) we performed a bibliographic research and analysis focusing on three key components for assessing the ability of a mosquito to ensure interspecies transfer of arboviruses in sylvatic areas: 1) the capacity to exploit natural larval breeding sites, 2) blood-feeding behaviour and 3) the vector competence for arboviruses. (ii) We investigated from fieldwork the colonization, dispersion, host feeding and potential impact of biodiversity patterns of Ae. albopictus in the urban/forest interface in Brasil. This field work was realized from ten forest-fragments ecosystems in tree Brazilians Biome: Biome Amazonia in Adolpho Ducke forest reserve-Manaus; Biome Mata Atlantica in Pedra Branca forest reserve- Rio de Janeiro, in the urban forest fragment Salvador, Serra, Belo Horizonte and in the rural forest fragment Domingos Martins, Simonésia, Casimiro de Abreu, Marica-RJ; Biome Cerrado in Morro dos Macacos forest – Goiania. This work confirmed that Ae. albopictus has the capacity to colonize natural breeding sites with the opportunistic feeding behavior with a preference for human blood sources, followed by other mammals and birds. We observe that the colonization and dispersion process is limited to the edge forest with an impact in species composition in this environments. We observed that this mosquitos is vector competence for 13 arbovirus from bibliographic recherché, but no arbovirus was detected from fildework collected mosquitos. Globally our results confirm and estimates the potential role of Ae. albopictus to act as a bridge vector of zoonotic diseases at the forest/urban interfaces in Brazil. This work opens a research area in which further investigations may assess the potential spill-over risk of zoonotic disease from forested to urban areas with the aim to mitigate potential future viral emergences.

Since 1994, South Africa has undergone comprehensive political and economic changes in a positive direction, however, the country’s business environment still constitutes of corruption and inequity. The purpose of this thesis was to investigate how South Africa’s business environment affects Swedish SMEs establishment in the country. The methodology chosen for this research was a qualitative multiple case study with an abductive approach. The theoretical framework was established based on various theories related to business environment, internationalization and risk management, these theories was interlinked into a conceptual framework. In the empirical chapter, the primary data gathered from four cases was presented and thereafter analyzed together with the conceptual framework. The research concludes that the South African business environment affects the Swedish SMEs business activities in the country differently, depending on the firm’s size. The last decade’s political changes have generated in a more cautious approach among Swedish SME and their establishment in the country. Lastly, limitations of the research and recommendations for further research is outlined.

Les pays émergents dotés d’un marché dynamique sont devenus l’« espace » principal de la production automobile. Les pays développés restent les principaux exportateurs. Dans cette thèse nous mesurons la valeur des exportations théoriques des pays émergents par rapport aux paramètres (PIB, coûts d’échange) d’un modèle de gravité augmenté. Les exportations de voitures de la plupart des pays émergents risquent de stagner à cause de la faible économie de la connaissance et des coûts élevés d’échange dans ces pays. L’Iran a une opportunité pour augmenter ses exportations automobiles en améliorant la qualité de ses produits domestiques ou en construisant des plateformes exportatrices pour les FMN. Les exportations de la Turquie et du Mexique risquent de stagner à moins que le Mexique augmente ses exportations vers l’Europe et l’Asie, et que la Turquie améliore la valeur ajoutée de son industrie. Le véhicule électrique et la batterie lithium-ion incarnent l’avenir de l’industrie automobile. Il est prévu que la Chine et les États-Unis soient les principaux exportateurs de la batterie li-ion. Il est fort probable que les exportations américaines augmentent surtout vers les pays les plus avancés en matière des technologies de l’information et de la communication. / Emerging countries (EC) endowed with dynamic markets became the main automotive production area. Developed countries are still the main exporters. In this thesis, we measure the theoretical value of exports of EC based on the parameters (GDP, trade costs) of an augmented gravity model. The car exports of the majority of EC risk stagnation because of weak knowledge economy & high trade costs in these countries. Iran has an opportunity to increase its automotive exports under the condition of improving its domestic products and/or building export-platforms for global automakers. The exports of Turkey & Mexico risk stagnation unless Mexico increases its exports to Europe & Asia, and Turkey increases the added-value of its industry. Electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries are the future of the automotive industry. China & the USA are expected to be the main exporters in the field of li-ion batteries. The growth of American batteries exports is highly probable notably to countries with advanced ICT infrastructure.

Emerging-market multinational enterprises (EMNEs) have been increasingly engaged in outward foreign investments, the distinctive feature for their internationalization being the aim of strategic asset-seeking and acquiring knowledge. Thus, reverse knowledge transfer is significant in achieving innovation catch-up. Subsidiary willingness towards reverse knowledge transfer has huge implications for building up competitive advantages for MNEs. However, research on EMNEs shows that the subsidiary willingness towards reverse knowledge transfer is rather low. In this vein, the purpose of this thesis is to explore headquarters initiatives to improve subsidiary willingness in EMNEs. This thesis conducts a qualitative case study by semi-structured interviews with respondents from both headquarters and subsidiaries in a Chinese MNE. A case of a Chinese MNE, Geely, and its two Swedish subsidiaries (i.e. Volvo Cars and CEVT) is adopted to explore our research question. The findings suggest that headquarters in EMNEs can improve subsidiary willingness towards reverse knowledge transfer by promoting socialization between headquarters and subsidiary, granting subsidiary autonomy, making contributions to the subsidiary as well as maintaining headquarters/subsidiary cooperation. This thesis contributes to the research on reverse knowledge transfer and EMNEs by identifying new antecedents which influence subsidiary willingness in EMNEs.

A pesquisa toma como objeto os discursos e práticas utilizados por participantes do mercado de cervejas artesanais, surgido no Brasil a partir dos anos 1990, a fim de explorar como estes estabelecem uma identidade própria do artesanal, classificando-o como categoria à parte no mundo dos bens e, logo, um mercado à parte no universo das cervejas. Esta análise permite refletir acerca do papel dos discursos e das interações entre produtores e consumidores para o estabelecimento de uma identidade própria, dialogando com a literatura em sociologia econômica preocupada com as dinâmicas de emergência e estabelecimento de nichos de mercado ou mercados em si. Assim, também é perpassada por uma preocupação com a dimensão cultural destes processos, entendida como um trabalho ativo de classificação e valoração dos bens. Estes discursos e suas implicações são captados por meio de entrevistas e etnografias realizadas em feiras e eventos de cerveja, momentos em que os discursos de produtores entram em contato diretamente com consumidores, e permitem observar as implicações práticas destas dimensões discursivas. Nestas, um elemento central de análise é a figura do outro, com a noção de alteridade e oposição atribuída às grandes empresas do ramo cervejeiros, referidas como grandes indústrias. Ao restituir como se dá o processo de construção destas identidades partidas entre o grande e o artesanal, bem como quais as dinâmicas que se formam neste universo, exploramos novas possibilidades na interpretação dos processos de competição e emergência de mercados. / The object study for this research are the discourses and practices from craft beer Market agents, which emerged in Brazil in the 1990s, in order to explore how this agents establish their own craft identity, being able to classify it as a new consumption category in the world of goods, apart from common beer. This analysis allows reflection upon the role discourses and interactions among producers and consumers for the establishment of this own identity, in conversation with the wider literature in Economic Sociology which focuses on the emergence and establishment of new markets or Market niches. This work is thus also permeated by the cultural dimension of these processes, which are to be understood as active classification and valuation works. Discourses and their implications are captured through interviews and ethnographic incursions in beer events, moments in which producers may directly talk to consumers, which allow us to perceive practical implications of these discursive dimensions. Among them, one of the key elements is the role of the other, with otherness and oppositions attributed to the big beer companies. By recapturing the process of how identities split between craft and big are built, we explore new opportunities of interpreting competition and emerging markets.