Magistro darbe pateikiami sporto renginių žiūrovų elgsenos teoriniai aspektai, tyrimo metodikos ir jos organizavimo analizė bei Lietuvos futbolo žiūrovų elgsenos tyrimas. Darbą sudaro: literatūros apžvalga, tyrimo metodika ir organizavimas, tyrimo rezultatai ir jų aptarimas bei išvados ir rekomendacijos. Pirmojoje dalyje aiškinama renginių ir sporto renginių sampratų esmė ir skirtumai, analizuojama sporto renginių žiūrovų tipologija ir jų elgseną įtakojantys veiksniai, nagrinėjama vartotojų-žiūrovų lojalumas, jų išlaikymas ir pakartotinio pirkimo priežastys bei aprašomas futbolo varžybų žiūrovų sprendimo priėmimo procesas. Antrojoje magistro darbo dalyje apra���omas tyrimo metodikos pagrindimas bei kiekybinio tyrimo „Futbolo žiūrovo Lietuvoje elgsena“ organizavimas. Trečiojoje dalyje atliekamas futbolo žiūrovų Lietuvoje elgsenos tyrimas ir formuluojamos sporto paslaugos-futbolo tobulinimo kryptys. Išvadose pateikiami pagrindiniai sporto renginių žiūrovų elgsenos aspektai, tyrimo parinkimo metodikos apibendrinimai ir kiekybinio tyrimo „Futbolo žiūrovo Lietuvoje elgsena“ rezultatai bei jais pagrįsti siūlymai. Svarbiausi šio darbo teoriniai ir praktiniai aspektai iliustruoti 21 paveikslu, 3 lentelėmis, 1 priedu, 1 formule, o teoriniams nagrinėjamos temos pagrindams panaudota 23 spausdintos literatūros šaltiniai bei 7 interneto puslapiai lietuvių ir anglų kalbomis. Darbe naudojamos pagrindinės sąvokos: sporto renginių žiūrovai, sporto paslauga, futbolas... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / This masters work analyses the theoretical aspects of the audience behaviour in sport events. Also the research methods and the analysis of its organization together with the research of the Lithuanian soccer viewers behavior. The work includes: overview of literature, research methods and organization, research results and discussions with conclusions and recommendations. First part covers the sports events and events point of conception and differences. It analyses the typology of sport events audience and the behavior influencing factors. Also discussing the loyalty of the audience, its consistency, and repetitive purchasing factors, and the soccer game viewer's decision making process. Second part talks about the proof of research methods and the organization of the quantitative research "the behavior of audience in Lithuanian soccer". Third part covers the research about the behavior of Lithuanian soccer viewers and develops sport services with soccer improving directions. Conclusion gives the main aspects of soccer viewers behavior, research selection methods, and the quantitative research "the behavior of audience in Lithuanian soccer" results and suggestions based on them. The main theoretical and practical aspects of this masters work are illustrated with 21 picture, 3 tables, 1 annex, 1 formula, and for the theoretical basics of the analyzed topic - 23 literature sources and also 7 internet web pages in Lithuanian and English languages have been used. The... [to full text]

Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modeling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding: uncertainty about the modeling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Nevertheless deterministic approaches are still widely used in natural hazard assessments, holding the risk of underestimating the hazard with disastrous effects. The all-round probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks constitutes an attractive alternative. In contrast to deterministic proceedings, it treats response variables as well as explanatory variables as random variables making no difference between input and output variables. Using a graphical representation Bayesian networks encode the dependency relations between the variables in a directed acyclic graph: variables are represented as nodes and (in-)dependencies between variables as (missing) edges between the nodes. The joint distribution of all variables can thus be described by decomposing it, according to the depicted independences, into a product of local conditional probability distributions, which are defined by the parameters of the Bayesian network. In the framework of this thesis the Bayesian network approach is applied to different natural hazard domains (i.e. seismic hazard, flood damage and landslide assessments). Learning the network structure and parameters from data, Bayesian networks reveal relevant dependency relations between the included variables and help to gain knowledge about the underlying processes. The problem of Bayesian network learning is cast in a Bayesian framework, considering the network structure and parameters as random variables itself and searching for the most likely combination of both, which corresponds to the maximum a posteriori (MAP score) of their joint distribution given the observed data. Although well studied in theory the learning of Bayesian networks based on real-world data is usually not straight forward and requires an adoption of existing algorithms. Typically arising problems are the handling of continuous variables, incomplete observations and the interaction of both. Working with continuous distributions requires assumptions about the allowed families of distributions. To "let the data speak" and avoid wrong assumptions, continuous variables are instead discretized here, thus allowing for a completely data-driven and distribution-free learning. An extension of the MAP score, considering the discretization as random variable as well, is developed for an automatic multivariate discretization, that takes interactions between the variables into account. The discretization process is nested into the network learning and requires several iterations. Having to face incomplete observations on top, this may pose a computational burden. Iterative proceedings for missing value estimation become quickly infeasible. A more efficient albeit approximate method is used instead, estimating the missing values based only on the observations of variables directly interacting with the missing variable. Moreover natural hazard assessments often have a primary interest in a certain target variable. The discretization learned for this variable does not always have the required resolution for a good prediction performance. Finer resolutions for (conditional) continuous distributions are achieved with continuous approximations subsequent to the Bayesian network learning, using kernel density estimations or mixtures of truncated exponential functions. All our proceedings are completely data-driven. We thus avoid assumptions that require expert knowledge and instead provide domain independent solutions, that are applicable not only in other natural hazard assessments, but in a variety of domains struggling with uncertainties. / Obwohl Naturgefahren in ihren Ursachen, Erscheinungen und Auswirkungen grundlegend verschieden sind, teilen sie doch viele Gemeinsamkeiten und Herausforderungen, wenn es um ihre Modellierung geht. Fehlendes Wissen über die zugrunde liegenden Kräfte und deren komplexes Zusammenwirken erschweren die Wahl einer geeigneten Modellstruktur. Hinzu kommen ungenaue und unvollständige Beobachtungsdaten sowie dem Naturereignis innewohnende Zufallsprozesse. All diese verschiedenen, miteinander interagierende Aspekte von Unsicherheit erfordern eine sorgfältige Betrachtung, um fehlerhafte und verharmlosende Einschätzungen von Naturgefahren zu vermeiden. Dennoch sind deterministische Vorgehensweisen in Gefährdungsanalysen weit verbreitet. Bayessche Netze betrachten die Probleme aus wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretischer Sicht und bieten somit eine sinnvolle Alternative zu deterministischen Verfahren. Alle vom Zufall beeinflussten Größen werden hierbei als Zufallsvariablen angesehen. Die gemeinsame Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung aller Variablen beschreibt das Zusammenwirken der verschiedenen Einflussgrößen und die zugehörige Unsicherheit/Zufälligkeit. Die Abhängigkeitsstrukturen der Variablen können durch eine grafische Darstellung abgebildet werden. Die Variablen werden dabei als Knoten in einem Graphen/Netzwerk dargestellt und die (Un-)Abhängigkeiten zwischen den Variablen als (fehlende) Verbindungen zwischen diesen Knoten. Die dargestellten Unabhängigkeiten veranschaulichen, wie sich die gemeinsame Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung in ein Produkt lokaler, bedingter Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen zerlegen lässt. Im Verlauf dieser Arbeit werden verschiedene Naturgefahren (Erdbeben, Hochwasser und Bergstürze) betrachtet und mit Bayesschen Netzen modelliert. Dazu wird jeweils nach der Netzwerkstruktur gesucht, welche die Abhängigkeiten der Variablen am besten beschreibt. Außerdem werden die Parameter der lokalen, bedingten Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen geschätzt, um das Bayessche Netz und dessen zugehörige gemeinsame Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung vollständig zu bestimmen. Die Definition des Bayesschen Netzes kann auf Grundlage von Expertenwissen erfolgen oder - so wie in dieser Arbeit - anhand von Beobachtungsdaten des zu untersuchenden Naturereignisses. Die hier verwendeten Methoden wählen Netzwerkstruktur und Parameter so, dass die daraus resultierende Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung den beobachteten Daten eine möglichst große Wahrscheinlichkeit zuspricht. Da dieses Vorgehen keine Expertenwissen voraussetzt, ist es universell in verschiedenen Gebieten der Gefährdungsanalyse einsetzbar. Trotz umfangreicher Forschung zu diesem Thema ist das Bestimmen von Bayesschen Netzen basierend auf Beobachtungsdaten nicht ohne Schwierigkeiten. Typische Herausforderungen stellen die Handhabung stetiger Variablen und unvollständiger Datensätze dar. Beide Probleme werden in dieser Arbeit behandelt. Es werden Lösungsansätze entwickelt und in den Anwendungsbeispielen eingesetzt. Eine Kernfrage ist hierbei die Komplexität des Algorithmus. Besonders wenn sowohl stetige Variablen als auch unvollständige Datensätze in Kombination auftreten, sind effizient arbeitende Verfahren gefragt. Die hierzu in dieser Arbeit entwickelten Methoden ermöglichen die Verarbeitung von großen Datensätze mit stetigen Variablen und unvollständigen Beobachtungen und leisten damit einen wichtigen Beitrag für die wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretische Gefährdungsanalyse.

Šiame darbe buvo aptartas menkavertiškumo jausmas, jo kompensavimas bei svarba pedagoginiame kontekste. Taip pat aptartas pasitenkinimas darbu, pristatyti jį įtakojantys veiksniai bei pagrindinės teorijos. Darbe pristatyta streso samprata, pedagogų stresogeniniai įvykiai bei pagrindiniai modeliai. Be to pateiktas pedagoginio darbo specifiškumas, pedagogo darbo stiliaus samprata bei sąveikos su mokiniu ypatumai. Šio darbo pagrindinis tikslas yra atskleisti pedagogų lyginamojo menkavertiškumo jausmo svarbą pasitenkinimui darbu, stresogeninių įvykių patyrimui bei klasės valdymo stiliui remiantis individualiosios psichologijos principais. Atliktas tyrimas, kurio metu ištirta 103 pedagogai ( amžiaus vidurkis 43m., pedagoginio darbo stažo vidurkis 20m.). Iš jų 8 vyrai bei 94 moterys. Atlikus duomenų analizę paaiškėjo, jog pedagogų tarpe yra stebimas vidutinis arba žemas menkavertiškumo lygmuo. Tačiau pedagogų menkavertiškumo jausmas n��ra susijęs nei su amžiumi nei su jų pedagoginio darbo stažu. Taip pat pastebėta, jog menkavertiškumo jausmas demografinių rodiklių tokių kaip gimimo eiliškumas yra universalus, tai yra būdingas visoms grupėms. Pedagogų pasitenkinimas darbu nustatytas pakankamai aukštas bei pastebėta, jog pedagogai iki 12 metų augę kartu su abiem tėvais linkę jausti didesnį pasitenkinimą darbu. Taip pat nustatyta, jog pedagogai savo darbe patiria vidutinę stresogeninių įvykių įtampą, tačiau su demografiniais rodikliais sąsajų nepastebėta. Dominuojantis pedagogų... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / There was analyzed inferiority feeling and it‘s compensation. Also there was a discussion about teacher‘s work satisfaction, it‘s elements and the main theories. Furthermore there was aded the conception of stress, teacher‘s stressful events and teacher‘s stress models either teacher‘s work realities, classrom management styles and teacher-child interaction were aded as well. The purpose of this work is to disclose the importance of teacher‘s inferiority feeling for their work satisfaction, intensity of stressful life events and classroom management style in the frame of individual psychology. Respondents were 103 teachers with 43 years average of age and 20 years of work experience. The sex distrubution was 8 males and 94 females. Results have shown that there is observable feeling of inferiority among teachers. However any correlations between inferiority feeling, age and work experience have been observed. There was noticed that inferiority feeling is universal with regard to demographic variables that is typical for all groups. Also results have shown that teachers are satisfied with their work and also teachers who have been living with their both parents till age of 12 are more satisfied with their work. Furthemore was noticed that intensity of teacher‘s stressfull events are at medium level. Classroom management style Understading is dominant among teachers. Whereas any differences in using classroom management styles with regard to demographic variables and... [to full text]

In migratory vertebrates, the optimal timing of successive life history stages is relatively inflexible. As a result, life history trade-offs that occur during breeding may influence individual success in subsequent stages because there is little time to mitigate negative costs that are incurred, or because the onset of subsequent stages is delayed. In migratory songbirds, understanding how breeding events carry over to influence individual success has been challenging because individuals are difficult to track once breeding is complete. I studied an island breeding population of migratory Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) and tracked individuals from breeding up until the onset of autumn migration. In Chapter 1, I investigated the effects of early life events on body condition during the pre-migratory period and first year apparent survival. I found that juveniles fledging from larger broods were in poorer condition at fledging, had lower fat stores prior to migration, and had lower first year apparent survival. In Chapter 2, I examined the effects of life history trade-offs made by adults during breeding on pre-migratory body condition and annual apparent survival. I did not find evidence for a trade-off between reproductive effort or date of breeding completion with annual apparent survival or body condition during the pre-migratory period, but instead found that adults with the highest reproductive effort and later dates of breeding completion were more likely to survive until the following year. In Chapter 3, I examined the effect of timing of breeding completion and fledging on the date of fall migration. I found that both variables had strong positive effects on date of departure. Together, my results suggest that successful migration in juveniles is influenced by early life events, but that any potential costs incurred by adults during the breeding season likely has little influence on survival during migration.

Sociological explanations for human conduct usually place major ontological and epistemological emphasis upon either discursive or material relations without ever establishing or adequately specifying the validity of this dichotomy. Early texts by the Critical Realist philosopher Roy Bhaskar address this forced separation by creating an integrated ontological and epistemological field that provides a more detailed and precise theoretical ordering to agents, objects, and entities. Undertaking a developmental critique of Bhaskar’s arguments, this thesis extends Critical Realism’s role as theoretical ‘underlabourer’ and creates an expanded theoretical framework that balances discursive and material accounts. Utilising the sophisticated analyses of the structure and operation of discourses found in the work of Michel Foucault alongside the innovative arguments for aleatory materialism developed by Louis Althusser, a critique is established that shows discursive, material, and social relations to be complex, immanent, and, importantly, mutually constitutive. In each theory three core concepts of events, emergence, and the extra-discursive are shown to not only be present but also to operate as the main means of explaining social change. The result of integrating Critical Realism, Foucault, and Althusser in this sympathetic but non-syncretic form is the generation of a non-reductionist materialism combined with discursive relations. On this basis, social change is shown to be the result of restructured discursive and material relations of which human agents are only one part. The thesis provides an illustration of the theoretical argument with an empirical component which examines the formation and decline of the British nuclear industry between its inception in the early 1950s to the year 2000. The conclusion is that the form taken by nuclear energy is not entirely determined by any single one of political, economic, or scientific forces but is, instead, the product of multiple and complex interactions of immanent discursive and material relations that are, importantly, mutually reinforcing. / Thesis (Ph.D, Sociology) -- Queen's University, 2012-09-27 12:38:25.909

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Bakalauro darbo autorius IV kurso turizmo ir sporto vadybos programos Lietuvos sporto universiteto studentas Laimonas Alionis. Darbo tema - sporto renginių organizaciniai aspektai Kaišiadorių rajone. Šiuo darbu buvo norima išanalizuoti ir ištirti sporto renginių Kaišiadorių rajone organizavimo aspektus. Tikslinė auditorija - 46 - 55 metų, aukštąjį išsilavinimą turintys tarnautojai, kurių mėnesinės pajamos 1501 - 2500 litų. Pagrindiniai sporto renginių Kaišiadorių rajone organizavimo aspektai yra šie: renginio planavimo procesas, renginio tikslas, tikslų nustatymo mechanizmas, pajamų šaltinių nustatymas, pajamų paskirstymas, reklama, žmogiškųjų išteklių valdymas, savanorių dalyvavimas ir netikėtumo veiksnio analizė. Sporto renginiai Kaišiadorių rajone yra vykdomi nuosekliai. Daug dėmesio skiriama renginio planavimo etape tikslų nustatymui, kurių yra laikomasi iki renginiui pasibaigiant. Sporto renginiai organizuojami sporto visiems principu, kuriuo siekiama masiškumo, tačiau savivaldybės parama į renginio biudžetą yra nedidelė. / The author of the bachelor work is the IV course Lithuanian sport university student Laimonas Alionis of tourism and sport management program. The object of the work is sport events and their organizing aspects in Kaisiadorys district. The aim of the work is to analyze and investigate the aspects of the sport events in the Kaisiadorys district. Target audience - 46 - 55 years old, higher educated employees, with a monthly income of 1501 - 2500 LTL. The main aspects of organizing sport events in the Kaisiadorys district are: events planing process, the aim of event, the mechanism of aim setting, indentifying the sources of income, income distribution, advertising, human resources management, volunteering and the analyses risk factor. The sport events in the Kaisiadorys district are enforced consistently. A lot of attention is on the sport event planing and the stage purpose setting, which needs to be followed until the end of the event. The events are planned by the principle: sports for everybody, aimed to attract the masses, but the support from the municipal is not enough for the budget of the event.

This dissertation presents three separate studies designed to provide systematic and evidence-based insight into how servant leadership could be a crucial success factor in helping non-profit organizations (NPOs) hosting cause-related sporting events achieve their missions. Thus, the purpose of my dissertation was to advance the literature and the practice of servant leadership. In Study one, I conducted a systematic literature review of studies that explored an application of servant leadership. A disciplined screening process resulted in a sample population of 39 studies. The synthesis of these applied studies revealed: a) there is no consensus on the definition of servant leadership; b) servant leadership is being applied across a variety of contexts, cultures, and themes; c) researchers are using multiple measures to explore servant leadership; and d) these studies provide strong evidence that servant leadership helps organizations and improves the well-being of followers. In Study two, I explored the leadership style of the founder of a cause-related sporting event to understand how this leadership style motivated volunteers. This was achieved through semi-structured personal interviews, document analysis, and personal observations of the 25th National Kidney Foundation (NKF) Surf Festival. Results indicated that the founder was a servant leader who influenced volunteer motivation by generating a shared vision dedicated to helping others, building a caring and loving community, and creating the freedom and resources for followers to become servants themselves. In Study three, using a longitudinal case study, I qualitatively explored if a cause-related sporting event could inspire participants to become servant leaders, and if so, how does the event achieve this? Data collection methods included focus groups, open-ended qualitative questionnaires, direct observations, document analysis, and semi-structured personal interviews with participants of the U.S. NKF Transplant Games, specifically Team Florida. Analyses revealed the event inspired participants to serve others and helped to build a community of servant leaders. It was found that three specific mechanisms of the Games generated community-level outcomes, which led to impacts on participants and helped them develop servant leadership. I then developed a model to describe a cause-related sporting event's ability to inspire participants to become servant leaders.

The aims of this thesis were to investigate the long-term effects of adjuvant tamoxifen treatment on breast cancer recurrence and mortality, cardiovascular disease, and the incidence of secondary cancer. Between 1982 and 1992, postmenopausal patients with early stage breast cancer were included in a randomized clinical study of 2 or 5 years of postoperative tamoxifen therapy. The trial was planned by the Swedish Breast Cancer Group, and it included 4610 patients. Follow-up on causes of death, hospitalizations and secondary cancers were obtained from national population-based registries.  All-cause mortality, breast cancer-specific mortality and mortality from coronary heart disease were decreased in the 5-year group, but the incidence of endometrial cancer was increased (Paper I). The incidence and mortality of cerebrovascular diseases were increased during the active treatment phase, and reduced after the active treatment (Paper II). Similar results were seen for subgroups of cerebrovascular diseases such as stroke and ischemic stroke. In the 5-year group, the morbidity from coronary heart disease was reduced during treatment but not after treatment was stopped (Paper III). This was the case also for heart failure and for atrial fibrillation/flutter. For secondary cancers the lung cancer risk was reduced, as well as the lung cancer mortality (Paper IV). An increased risk was observed for endometrial cancer, but appeared to decrease over time. The risk of contralateral breast cancer was reduced, with most of the reduction after treatment was stopped. For distance recurrences the risk was reduced both during treatment and a few years after treatment was stopped. The breast cancer mortality was also reduced, especially during the post-treatment phase.

Most farmers in South Africa use standard insurance to protect their crops against natural disasters such as hail or strong winds. However, no South African insurance contracts exist to compensate for too much or too little rain (although floods are covered), or which will pay out if temperatures were too high or too low for a certain period of time for the relevant crop. Weather derivatives - which farmers may employ to ensure crops against adverse temperatures - do exist, but these are mostly available in foreign markets in the form of Heating Degree Days contracts and Cooling Degree Day contracts and are used chiefly by energy companies. Some South African over-the-counter weather derivatives are available, but trading in these is rare and seldom used. The goal of this dissertation is to establish a pricing equation for weather derivatives specifically for use in the South African market. This equation will be derived using a similar methodology to that employed for credit default swaps. The premium derived will be designed to compensate grape farmers from losses arising from two different climatic outcomes - in this case temperature and precipitation. These derivatives will be region and crop specific and the formulation will be sufficiently flexible as to allow for further climatic possibilities (which may be added at a later stage). These weather derivative premiums will then be compared to standard crop insurance to establish economic viability of the products and recommendations will be made regarding their usage. The possibility of the simultaneous use of these derivatives and standard crop insurance for optimal crop coverage will also be explored and discussed. / Thesis (M.Com. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.