Most farmers in South Africa use standard insurance to protect their crops against natural disasters such as hail or strong winds. However, no South African insurance contracts exist to compensate for too much or too little rain (although floods are covered), or which will pay out if temperatures were too high or too low for a certain period of time for the relevant crop. Weather derivatives - which farmers may employ to ensure crops against adverse temperatures - do exist, but these are mostly available in foreign markets in the form of Heating Degree Days contracts and Cooling Degree Day contracts and are used chiefly by energy companies. Some South African over-the-counter weather derivatives are available, but trading in these is rare and seldom used. The goal of this dissertation is to establish a pricing equation for weather derivatives specifically for use in the South African market. This equation will be derived using a similar methodology to that employed for credit default swaps. The premium derived will be designed to compensate grape farmers from losses arising from two different climatic outcomes - in this case temperature and precipitation. These derivatives will be region and crop specific and the formulation will be sufficiently flexible as to allow for further climatic possibilities (which may be added at a later stage). These weather derivative premiums will then be compared to standard crop insurance to establish economic viability of the products and recommendations will be made regarding their usage. The possibility of the simultaneous use of these derivatives and standard crop insurance for optimal crop coverage will also be explored and discussed. / Thesis (M.Com. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

The primary purpose of this study was to determine the status of brand loyalty to art festivals with reference to Klein Karoo national Arts Festival (KKNK). This was achieved by firstly analysing and discussing the role of branding in tourism marketing. Secondly, a literature study was conducted to analyse the concept brand loyalty. Thirdly, the results of the empirical research were discussed and finally the conclusions were drawn from the research and recommendations were made with regard to visitors’ loyalty to the KKNK. Literature indicated that when marketing a tourism product or service it involves a complex bundle of value, which is intangible, inseparable, variable and perishable. Therefore the tourist’s experience with the product is important to keep in mind. Every tourist counts in the tourism industry therefore knowledge related to the needs and wants of the tourists. This can be determined by market research that is designed to collect, analyse, interpret and report information. The marketer can use this information to create a marketing mix, however, in the tourism and hospitality industry the four P’s (price, promotion, product, place) are extended with more P’s, namely people, physical environment, processes, packaging, participation, productservice mix, presentation mix and communication mix. The tourism product or festival should be positioned in the minds of the tourists and this cannot be achieved without branding the product. The brand name is used to identify and differentiate the product from its competitors. It also creates meaning for the tourist and establishes a competitive position in the minds of the tourist. Brand loyalty should be an important marketing goal of the tourism product because it reduces a brand’s vulnerability to competitors’ action and create a committed relationship with the tourists that insure lifelong visiting behaviour among tourists or positive word-of-mouth recommendations. Brand loyalty is build on six levels which can also be utilised to determine the visitors loyalty towards the brand and to assist the marketer on focussing on areas which should be improved to achieve a higher level of loyalty. The aim of the marketer should be to achieve the highest level of brand loyalty namely Resonance. For the purpose of this study the visitors’ profile and the current status of brand loyalty, were measured by means of a questionnaire and the objective of the questionnaire was to determine how loyal the visitors were to the KKNK. The questionnaires were distributed among the visitors at the KKNK in Oudtshoorn, in April 2009. Availability sampling was used to collect the data based on the fact that the respondents were conveniently available on the festival grounds and at show venues and willing to complete the questionnaires. A total of 422 questionnaires were completed during the festival. The factor analysis determined that Brand Feelings were the loyalty level that was rated the highest by the respondents to the KKNK. Therefore it was determined that the visitors’ loyalty to KKNK is currently at the fifth loyalty level and will have the most influence on the visitors when deciding to visit or recommend the KKNK. This is expected for a festival that is 15 years old however, the organisers of the KKNK can continue to improve the visitors loyalty until they reach the sixth and highest, loyalty level. This study contributes to the limited available literature on brand loyalty to arts festivals. / Thesis (M.Com. (Tourism))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012

BAKGRUND: De som drabbats av svåra livshändelser (här begränsade till skilsmässa eller make/makas död) betraktas som en riskgrupp när det gäller både allmän hälsa och munhälsa. SYFTE: Att undersöka om och i vilken mån svåra livshändelser (skilsmässa eller make/makas död) påverkar den allmänna hälsan och munhälsan, samt vilka aspekter av munhälsa som en global munhälsofråga kan fånga upp. MATERIAL OCH METOD: Studien utfördes som en kvantitativ studie med en enkät om munhälsa som delades ut till samtliga födda 1942 i Örebro och Östergötlands län under 2007. Svarsfrekvensen var 73,1% av totalt 8313 individer. Både allmän hälsa och munhälsa mättes med hjälp av en global fråga. Munhälsan mättes dessutom med sex ytterligare frågor. Deskriptiv analys gjordes, skillnader mellan grupper testades och kompletterades med logistiska regressionsanalyser. RESULTAT: Det finns en statistiskt signifikant skillnad mellan dem som är frånskilda och/eller änka/änkling jämfört med dem som är gifta/sambo. De som inte drabbats av skilsmässa eller make/makas död hade bättre allmän hälsa och munhälsa. Skillnaden är systematisk och signifikant. Skillnaden mellan grupperna är statistisk signifikant även vid användandet av endast en fråga, den globala munhälsofrågan. Den globala munhälsofrågan förefaller i första hand spegla de delar av munhälsan som anknyter till patientens uppfattning om utseende och tuggförmåga. Studien antyder också att den försämrade hälsan kvarstår lång tid efter händelsen. SLUTSATSER OCH REKOMMENDATIONER: Den här studien påvisar vikten av en adekvat anamnes som även inkluderar frågor om civilstånd. En global fråga om självupplevd munhälsa är också ett möjligt komplement för att bättre kunna bedöma såväl patientens munhälsa som behov av preventiva insatser. / BACKGROUND: Individuals who have experienced difficult life events, limited here todivorce or death of a spouse, show elevated risk regarding general and oral health. AIM: This study investigated how and to what extent difficult life events, i.e., divorce ordeath of a spouse, affect general and oral health. I also sought to determine whether a globalquestion can identify different aspects of oral health. MATERIALS AND METHOD: This cross-sectional quantitative study used an existingquestionnaire already distributed to all (8,313) 65-year-old citizens in two Swedish counties.Within the questionnaire, a global question measured general as well as oral health, and sixadditional questions assessed oral health. Descriptive analysis sought to determinedifferences between groups, and logistic regressions were used to compare them further. RESULTS: The questionnaire response rate was 73.1%. The results showed statisticallysignificant differences in general and oral health among individuals who experienceddivorce or death of a spouse compared with individuals without such experiences. Thedifferences among groups, i.e., better general and oral health among individuals withoutdivorce or death of a spouse, were significant and systemic, p&lt;0.05. Further, differencesremained statistically significant even when using a global question on oral health. However,this global question focused mainly on chewing capacity and appearance. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the importance of accurate anamnesis, includingquestions on civil status. A global question about self-perceived oral health providesimportant information for judging patients’ oral health and determining preventive actions.The study also suggests that risk for deteriorating oral health lingers long after difficult lifeevents have occurred. / <p>ISBN 978-91-85721-48-1</p>

Fall er et stort og økende problem for eldre kvinner og menn i den vestlige verden. En rekke forskningsrapporter dokumenterer at det er mulig å forebygge fall, og tverrfaglige tiltak har vist størst effekt. Fallforebygging har derfor vært et satsingsområde i Stavanger kommune i en årrekke. Implementering av nye tiltak er krevende, og er det derfor viktig å undersøke i hvilken grad ny kunnskap har betydning for praksis. Studien bygger på teori om tverrfaglighet, salutogenese og coping fordi forståelse av disse begrepene er viktig for gjennomføring av tiltak. Hensikt med studien var å få mer kunnskap om forekomst og konsekvenser av fall blant pasienter i sykehjem og pasienter som får hjemmesykepleie. Dessuten var hensikten å få kunnskap om hvordan ansatte i sykehjem og hjemmesykepleie oppfatter fall, hvordan ansatte vurderer pasienters og pårørendes opplevelser etter fall og hva som i dag gjøres for å forebygge fall. Studien ble gjennomført som en todelt evaluering som bestod av en kvantitativ og en kvalitativ studie. Den kvantitative delen beskrev det enkelte fall, og personene som falt. Data fra fallregistreringsskjema fra 12 sykehjem og 5 hjemmebaserte tjenester, i en periode på fire måneder, ble analysert. I den kvalitative delen ble oppfølging av fall beskrevet og sammenlignet med fastsatte prosedyrer, retningslinjer og faglige normer, ved bruk av fokusgruppeintervju med ansatte i sykehjem og hjemmesykepleien. Det ble registrert 798 fall i perioden og av disse resulterte 170 i skade. Totalt falt 363 pasienter, 45 % av pasientene i sykehjem, og 6 % av pasientene som bodde hjemme. Alle ansatte gav utrykk for at det var viktig å redusere risiko for fall, og at tverrfaglig samarbeid var viktig. Ansatte gav også utrykkfor at det er lett å registrere fall og vanskelig ”å gjøre noe med det”. Dette bekreftes i resultat fra den kvantitative undersøkelsen der det ikke var dokumentert oppfølging for å hindre nye fall i 50 % av tilfellene. Miljøtilrettelegging var det tiltaket som oftest blir omtalt for å redusere fallrisiko for pasienter i hjemmet, for pasienter i sykehjem tilsyn. Pasientene ble i liten grad fulgt opp med individuell kartlegging og tverrfaglig innsats. For bedre implementering av forskningsbasert kunnskap innen fallforebygging er det nødvendig å identifisere målgruppen. Andre forbedringsområder er å ta hensyn til pasientenes erfaringer, fokusere på pasientenes egne ressurser og individuelle mestringstrategier. Ledere må i større grad legge til rette for tverrfaglighet, samt etterspør evaluering av tiltak rettet mot målgruppen. / Falls and fear of falling is a major and increasing problem for older males and females in the Western world. The effectiveness of falls prevention programmes is well documented and the multidisciplinary approach has been proven to be the most effective. For this reason the municipality of Stavanger has given priority to falls prevention programmes in the care for the elderly. The implementation of new models of care is challenging, it is therefore important to determine whether new techniques achieve good outcomes which in turn can influence how we deliver our service. The theory of this study is based upon understanding the concepts of a multidisciplinary approach, salutogenesis and coping, and how they impact on the implementation of falls prevention interventions. The objectives of this study were to obtain data about falls amongst patients in nursing homes and those patients receiving home care. To explore how the health professional documents and evaluates the patients’ and relatives’ experience after a fall, and to find out which falls prevention interventions are currently being utilised. A two part evaluation was chosen for this study. Part one outlines the fall description and the types of patients who fell. Part two reviews the interventions utilised after a fall and benchmarks them against recognised standards and procedures. Data gathered from 12 nursing homes and 5 home care units, using the fall registration form, over a period of four months, was analysed. Further information was obtained by conducting focus group interviews with the staff of nursing homes and home care units. During the period 798 falls were registered of which 170 falls resulted in injuries. A total of 365 patients fell, 45% of all patients in nursing homes and 6% of all patients receiving home care. All staff expressed the importance of reducing risk of falling, and providing multidisciplinary interventions. They gave the impression that it was easy to register falls, but difficult to follow up with interventions. This was supported with the results from the quantitative study, 50% of falls had no documentation of follow up. For patients living at home environmental changes were the most used intervention, for patients in nursing homes being looked after were most important. Individual assessment and multidisciplinary interventions were rarely carried out. For successful implementation of evidence based practice in falls prevention it is important to identify the target group. Other areas to be improved include the utilisation of patient assessments and ongoing evaluations with the focus on patients’ resources and individual coping strategies. Managers should ensure the adoption of the multidisciplinary team approach to interventions and implement regular assessments and evaluation of the target group / <p>ISBN 978-91-85721-33-7</p>

In the past studies covering 1965-90, it is observed that net migration was from villages and district centers towards province centers. Although the net migration trend throughout the period was almost constant for the villages and the province centers, the role of the district centers changed in later periods. Previously, the district centers were transient settlements in terms of net migration with resultant almost zero net migration. However, in later years, they began to have net out-migration in significantly increasing numbers, because net in-migration from the villages decreased and net out-migration to the province centers increased. The increase in the net migration from district centers to province centers and the gradual loss of the importance of the district centers (towns) occurred not only in Turkey but also in the other developing countries, especially in 1990&amp / #8217 / s. The aim of this thesis is to study the net migration trends and patterns of the three different settlement types namely, province centers, district centers and villages of Turkey during 1985-90. In this study, the descriptive analyses which were carried out on the net migration rates of the provinces and three settlement types clearly indicate the regional disparities between west-east and south-north of Turkey. For all of the three settlement types, the provinces having the highest net in-migration rates are located along the Western and Southern coastal zones whereas the provinces having the largest net out-migration rates are located in the East, North East and South East regions.

本研究針對1996年至2008年台灣總統大選的造勢活動，挑選各次大選中特定的大型造勢活動做為個案研究分析，分別在文宣策略、活動幅員、媒體效果及民意支持度等影響層面做為分析指標，輔以當年曾參與選舉的競選工作人員及記者的深度訪談，找出四次總統選舉各類造勢活動的類型及表現方式，並分析各項類型活動在每次大選運用的變化。 研究個案的選擇指標是以影響性及大型活動(Mega-events)規模的條件來篩選，依序探討1996年陳履安「行腳祈福」、2000年陳水扁「百萬人民站出來」、2004年陳水扁「牽手護台灣」及2008年「Long Stay下鄉長住」四個案例。以四次不同年代的總統副總統選舉中特定單一的造勢活動，依據「事件行銷」及「選舉造勢活動」對大型活動(Mega-events)的分類，以及SWOT優劣勢分析模式進行個案研究。 本研究深入訪問四個案的競選總部高階負責人，以及當時擔任該造勢活動的媒體採訪記者，以「半結構性訪談」方式，了解四個案造勢活動的規劃及執行細節，以及受訪者認為該造勢活動個案對選戰的影響效果。 研究發現大型競選造勢活動能夠型塑及強化選戰主軸、且達成多項競選功能成效，並加深勝選的助力。最後綜合比較四大個案，分析在各自年代的歷史意義、選情熱度以及投入資源程度的不同，對當年以及往後選舉的影響層面也有不同的意義。 / This study investigates the impacts of campaign events (rallies) on the result of Taiwan’s presidential elections from 1996 to2008. The analysis focuses on the campaign strategies, the scale of the activities, media effects as well as the strength of public support at each campaign event. Combining with in-depth interviews with campaign office staff and journalists, the study aims at detecting the patterns of the campaign rallies, and their impacts on the particular presidential election. Four significant campaign events (also known as Mega Events) are selected for this study and they are: Chen Li-an’s " Blessing March" in 1996, Chen Shui-bian’s "Million People to Stand Up" in 2000, Chen Shui-bian’s "Hand in hand to cherish Taiwan " in 2004, and Ma Ying-jeou’s " Long Stay" in 2008. The cases are chosen based on the scale and size of the activities and their potential impacts on election outcomes. In addition to event analysis, semi-structured interviews were conducted with the high-level executives from the campaign headquarters of the chosen cases and journalists who were following these events at that time, to provide an in-depth analysis on planning and execution details, and to gauge the impacts of each rally from the interviewees’ perspectives. The findings suggest that large-scale campaign rallies are indeed capable of strengthening campaign fever, consolidating supports, and thus, enhance the chance of winning. Last but not the least, a comprehensive comparison of the four mega-events (including the analysis of the historical meaning of the event at that time period, citizen enthusiasm to the particular election, and resources allocation for each event) is included in the discussion. The findings suggest that each event does have a different historical meaning at its own time and has impacted on subsequent elections.

本論文藉由動補語後方名詞，依理論架構重新分類趨向動補語Ｖ上，並探討其前後的搭配詞在分類底下與「上」之間的互動情形。首先，根據Talmy (2000) 所提出的動態事件理論區辨後方名詞，其乃是具有傳達出動態語意的名詞特徵。其次，並以V上的論旨角色作為分類，因而總共得出三種型態的V上：[ V上Ground]，[ V上Patient]，[ V上Extent]，藉此看到前方動詞和後方名詞與V上之間的緊密關係。除外並以認知語意學角度呈現其三種類型之間具有語意關連，表現出多義詞的演變型態，且符合語法化的過程。 / When the morpheme shang4 ‘up’ 上 is attached to a verb, it composes a V-shang constituent, which is a member of the group of ‘verb-complement’ marking directional motion of the action (Liu, 1983/1998). V-shang signifies the movement of an object through an action from a low position to a higher position within an upward orientation; for instance, a person moves from the ground to the top of a mountain. The previous studies have listed several extended meanings, besides the basic meaning of motion (Liu, 1998, Jiang, 2003; Pan, 2005; Yu, 2010). Most studies categorize V-shang by mixed criteria of semantic meanings and syntactic functions. Noting the lack of a theoretical basis in the classification of V-shang, this thesis depends on motion-event theory, in which an event is composed of Figure, Motion and Ground, to examine the motion event conducted by V-shang (Talmy, 2000) and Lexical Functional Grammar (Kaplan and Bresnan, 1982; Dowty, 1988; Bresnan and Zaenen, 1990; Bresnan, 2001; Her, 2009) to analyze the syntactic structures of the first verbs and shang4 in V-shang. By analyzing the noun phrases following V-shang, the study divides [V-shang NP] into three categories: [V-shang Ground], [V-shang Patient], [V-shang Extent] and observes the verb types in each pattern. There are the changes of semantic meanings from directional motion into resultative state and of orientation from vertical path into horizontal path. Within Lexical Functional Grammar, the verb types of the first verbs in V-shang change from the physical motion verbs which require thematic roles of Theme and Location to the transitive verbs which require thematic roles of Agent and Patient. [V-shang Extent] is the most abstract category of its semantic meaning, and the verb types of the first verbs are less restricted than the verb types in other two categories. The cognitive approach also explains the relationship of the extended meanings in V-shang and shang4 (Lu, 2011). Shang4 presents the features of polysemy.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 163-169). / ix, 169 leaves, bound 29 cm

La presente tesis estudia la correlación negativa entre inflación y precios reales de las acciones. En primer lugar, muestro evidencia de que la inflación impone costos reales en la economía, en particular al disminuir los beneficios de las empresas, tal como sugiriera originalmente Miton Friedman. Segundo, sugiero que la inflación decrece los precios reales de las acciones dado que la probabilidad de sufrir estanflación en el futuro crece con la tasa de inflación (premio evento-extremo). Tercero, testeo si la evidencia macroeconómica respalda la relación positiva entre inflación e incertidumbre, y la relación entre inflación y el precio del riesgo (avesión relativa al riesgo). Cuarto, presento un estudio histórico, Alemania entre 1870 y 1935, para mostrar que es el premio por evento-extremo, y no illusion monetaria, lo que conlleva la correlación negativa entre inflación y precios reales de acciones. El último capítulo discute contagio en países emergentes.

Man has a limited ability to accurately and continuously analyse large amounts of data. Observers are typically required to monitor displays over extended periods and to execute overt detection responses to the appearance of low probability critical signals. The signals are usually clearly perceivable when observers are alerted to them, but they can be missed in the operating environment. The challenge is to develop a computer application that will accumulate information on a variable, or several variables, over time and identify when the trend in observations has changed. In recent years, there has been a rapid growth in patient monitoring and medical data analysis using decision support systems, smart alarm monitoring systems, expert systems and many other computer aided protocols. The expert systems have the potential to improve clinician performance by accurately executing repetitive tasks, to which humans are ill-suited. Anaesthetists working in the operating theatre are responsible for carrying out a multitude of tasks which requires constant vigilance and thus a need for a smart decision support system has arisen. The decision support tools capable of detecting pathological events can enhance the anaesthetist’s performance by providing alternative diagnostic information. The main goal of this research was to develop a clinically useful diagnostic alarm system using two different techniques for monitoring a pathological event during anaesthesia. Several techniques including fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks, control and monitoring techniques were explored. Firstly, an industrial monitoring system called Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) software is used and implemented in the form of a prototype system called SCADA monitoring system (SMS). The output of the system in detecting hypovolaemia was classified into three levels; mild, moderate and severe using SCADA’s InTouch software. In addition, a new GUI display was developed for direct interaction with the anaesthetists. Secondly, a fuzzy logic monitoring system (FLMS) was developed using the fuzzy logic technique. New diagnostic rules and membership functions (MF) were developed using MATLAB. In addition, fuzzy inference system FIS, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system ANFIS and clustering techniques were explored for developing the FLMS’s diagnostic modules. The raw physiological patient data acquired from an S/5 monitor were converted to a readable format using the DOMonitor application. The data was filtered, preprocessed, and analysed for detecting anaesthesia related events like hypovolaemia. The accuracy of diagnoses generated by SMS and FLMS was validated by comparing their diagnostic information with the one provided by the anaesthetist for each patient. Kappa-analysis was used for measuring the level of agreement between the anaesthetist’s, SMS’s, and FLMS’s diagnoses. In offline analysis both systems were tested with data from 15 patients. The SMS and FLMS achieved an overall agreement level of 87 and 88 percent respectively. It implies substantial level of agreement between SMS or FLMS and the anaesthetists. These diagnostic alarm systems (SMS and FLMS) have shown that evidence-based expert diagnostic systems can diagnose hypovolaemia, with a substantial degree of accuracy, in anaesthetized patients and could be useful in providing decision support to anaesthetists.