The main objective of this study is to evaluate the economic potential and opportunities for introducing Genetically Modified (GM) cassava that is Cassava Mosaic Virus (CMV) resistant and has improved starch properties in South Africa. The level of cassava production in South Africa is limited and thus a study on a new technology for this crop may seem strange. However, with innovations like the CMV resistance trait or amylose free cassava starch, cassava production in South Africa can possibly become more viable and relatively more profitable than competing crops such as maize and potatoes. Various ex ante economic methods and approaches to assessing economic impacts exist in the subject literature: the partial budget approach, cost benefit analysis, consumer and producer or economic surplus approach and the computable general equilibrium (CGE) or simulation model. For the purpose of this study and due to available data, a simple gross margin analysis was applied to analyse the economic profitability of genetically modified cassava in South Africa in comparison to maize and potato. Due to data limitations, this study relies on a synthesis between secondary information from various studies in other African countries and interviews with experts. The information collected was used to assess the potential for genetically modified cassava in South Africa. Secondary information and interviews with experts were used to provide more insights and information relating to the possible opportunities, constraints, performance of the genetically modified events, and production practices for cassava and other competing crops like maize and potato in the country. The gross margin analysis results show that cassava production is not profitable at farm level for both dryland and irrigation scenarios. However, processing cassava into starch results in higher returns from the higher starch output and quality compared to potato and maize. The starch from cassava has many industrial applications. The scenario analysis for GM cassava and infected cassava at 10%, 20%, 30% and 40% expected yield loss showed that the CMV resistant and amylose free GM cassava provides additional benefits due to its better quality and higher starch yields compared to infected varieties. The higher quality starch yields a higher profit making it even more profitable to produce cassava for starch. The results of interviews with subject experts show that cassava production and utilisation has lagged behind other crops in South Africa and the crop is sparingly and informally traded. An analysis of market constraints showed that there is a strong consumer taste preference for maize and other cereals dominating the starch market. Other factors that have contributed to the lagging behind of cassava in South Africa and other African countries are the post colonial government policies that favoured maize over cassava. Cassava has a number of important traits that present a competitive advantage for cassava as a commercial crop for farmers compared to other crops such as maize and potato. For example, cassava can be grown under difficult environmental conditions and has a wide range of applications ranging from food products to industrial starches. Cassava can be grown as a monoculture crop, unlike maize and potato which require rotation. In addition, the special characteristics of cassava starch present an important alternative to maize, wheat, rice and potato. Cassava flour and starch have unique properties which make them ideal for many applications in the food, textile and paper industries where flour and starch from other crops hold a quasi monopoly. For example, among starch producing plants, cassava has been considered as the highest yield producer (25 to 40 percent higher than potato, rice and maize) and as the most efficient (the highest) converter of solar energy to carbohydrate per unit area. However, despite these advantages, cassava has remained a neglected crop in South African agricultural research and development activities compared to cereals. However, the increasing demand for starch based applications in the food industry and industrial sector and the fact that the industry is searching for a cheaper substitute for cereals present an impressive market growth potential for cassava starch. For example, industries including the paper industry, food industry and textile industry are the main buyers of cassava starch in South Africa. The results from interview discussions show that there are some concerns and questions related to the introduction of GM cassava in South Africa. One of the main concerns was that empirical studies in South Africa have shown that the occurrence of cassava mosaic virus in the country is very low; it has an approximate 2 percent incidence rate. As a result, large scale producers have been able to control CMV through good management practices, natural selection and chemical control. Also, bureaucracy and lack of transparency in the South African genetically modified organism (GMO) regulatory system, especially regarding socio-economic issues consumer perception on GM cassava, may result in an extended delay before contained field trials are conducted in the country. It has also become clear that the two proposed GM events are still relatively far from being commercialisable. Furthermore, the current availability of mutant varieties of conventional cassava varieties that can produce better quality starch with a very low amylose content provide an important alternative to GM cassava. The utilisation of the former tends to be less time consuming and less expensive compared to GM cassava. It is difficult to perform a socio-economic assessment before confined laboratory tests or field trials have been conducted. Further development of the potential product would supply crucial information that is needed for an ex ante socio-economic study. It is clear that this study was conducted far too early as GM technologies are not yet remotely close to being ready for commercialisation. Many basic studies still need to be conducted, including field trials. The South African GMO Act and regulations do not clearly stipulate when a socio-economic study should be conducted, but it is clear that the worth of a study conducted before any confined field trials had been performed would be questionable. Copyright / Dissertation (MScAgric)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

This study investigates if momentum effects can be found on the Swedish stock market by testing a cross-sectional momentum strategy on historical data. To explain the results mathematically, a second approach, involving time series regression for predicting future returns is introduced and thereby extends the cross-sectional theory. The result of the study shows that momentum effects through the cross-sectional strategy exist on the Swedish stock market. Although positive return is found, the time series regression do not give any significance for predicting future returns. Hence, there is a contradiction between the two approaches. / Denna studie undersöker om momentumeffekter föreligger på den svenska aktiemarknaden med hjälp av två olika tillvägagångssätt. Först testas momentumstrategin på historisk data och därefter genomförs tidseriesregression för att undersöka om resultaten har statistisk signifikans för att prediktera framtida avkastning. Resultatet visar att momentumeffekter existerar på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Trots att positiv avkastning erhålls ger tidserieregressionen ingen indikation på att prediktering av framtida avkastning är möjlig. Följaktligen finns det en motsägelse mellan de två tillvägagångssätten.

This research aims to identify the determinants of the ex-ante risk premium required by Italian private equity funds (PEFs) when valuing privately-held target companies. In theory, perceived risk is a key driver of expected returns and anticipated value, but: ¿Although PE (private equity) has experienced rapid growth, the risk and return profile of this asset class is not well understood.¿ (Jegadeesh et al., 2009). Some papers have attempted to assess the ex post returns pioneered by Lerner & Gompers (1997). Yet such studies reveal both contradictory conclusions and hitherto inexplicable phenomena: what some authors call the ¿private equity premium puzzle¿ (Moskowitz & Jorgensen, 2000). Such contradictory conclusions include a wide spread of abnormal realized returns ranging from -6% (Phalippou & Gottschalg, 2009) to +32% (Cochrane, 2005). In this research, the perceived risk and expected return drivers refer not to the ex-post realized return that PEF investors actually achieve, but to the required return the PEF hopes to gain from the target investment. At this stage, two important indicators adopted in PEF parlance have to be differentiated: (i) the Expected IRR (E.IRR) and (ii) the Threshold IRR (T.IRR). The first is the IRR as an output of a business plan, and the second assesses the return expected by PEFs according to the risk perceived in the business plan. Put simply, these are respectively, the anticipated return and the (risk-adjusted) required return. The study of the T.IRR is one of the main contributions of this thesis since it has never been studied before by academia as an indicator of the ex-ante perceived risk of a PEF target company. This is partly due to two important reasons. First, most previous papers examine ex-post performance, and only a few (e.g. Manigart et al., 2002), try to assess return expectations and risk perceptions using an ex-ante perspective. Second, most of the prior studies are quantitative and try to measure statistical effects captured by the ex-post IRR. By studying 26 deals (in 13 Italian PEFs) in detail (qualitatively and quantitatively), this research project has been able to observe how PEFs assess risk and estimate the T.IRR. The research project reveals that PEFs apply neither rational-based models nor explicit formulae to assess risk exante. By observing a set of phenomena unique to the PEF sector (fees effect, investment speed effect, persistence effect, money-chasing deal phenomenon, illiquidity effect, etc) whose existence has been suggested by many recent papers, this thesis has been able to propose an adjusted version of the three-factor model of Fama and French (1993, 1995) to assess risk. The application of a quasi-rational-based asset pricing model to guide PEFs assessments is also an important contribution of this thesis. In fact, Franzoni, Nowak and Phalippou (2010), claim to be the first to calculate the PEFs¿ cost of capital by applying asset pricing models. However, their approaches are not only based on the observations of realized returns, but also consider only one additional factor to the standard Fama & French three-factor model (1993), the liquidity factor. In contrast, the results and the model proposed by this thesis are based on qualitative and quantitative ex-ante information and include not only the classical factors of that model, but also some other factors intended to explain some of the phenomena listed above which might also drive the risk premium in private equity funds. Based, therefore, on explaining the behavior of PEFs, the research develops a framework that can be applied by Italian PEFs and perhaps other PEFs in a more rational manner than their past behavior suggests.

Underprissättning vid en börsintroduktion (Initial Public Offering, IPO) har blivit ett uppmärksammat fenomen inom litteraturen för företagsfinansiering. Tidigare forskning har identifierat en trend att IPO:er är i genomsnitt underprissatta, och graden av underprissättning kan variera kraftigt. Men en enhetlig förklaring till denna variation har ännu inte kunnat fastslås. Fenomenet har studerats på internationella och lokala reglerade marknader, men ingen studie har hittills gjorts på en svensk oreglerad marknad. Syftet med uppsatsen är således att bidra till den existerande forskningen om underprissättning vid en börsintroduktion genom att undersöka huruvida det föreligger ett samband mellan resultatvolatilitet innan en börsintroduktion och graden av underprissättning av en IPO på den svenska marknaden. Urvalet består av 96 företag som noterats på First North Stockholm under åren 2017-2022, och för att undersöka sambandet genomförs en multipel linjär regressionsanalys. Vi kan konstatera att under den studerade tidsperioden var svenska IPO:er som noterats på First North i genomsnitt underprissatta med 6.52 %, och vi finner ett svagt stöd för vår hypotes att det föreligger ett positivt samband mellan resultatvolatilitet innan en börsintroduktion och underprissättning.

Yes / This study investigates peer effects in the online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending market using data from a Chinese online lending platform, Renrendai. The empirical results indicate that both the borrowers' success rate in obtaining loans and the default rate after loans are deemed non-coercive among their peers, referred to as the peer effects of lending and peer effects of default, respectively. The peer effect of lending is more pronounced in high-risk cities, whereas the peer effect of defaulting is more pronounced for borrowers with more difficulty obtaining loans, indicating ex-ante selection and ex-post learning mechanisms, respectively. The peer effects of lending promote P2P lending market efficiency, and the peer effects of defaulting inhibit market efficiency. Collectively, our results suggest that both lenders and borrowers follow peer effects to reduce information asymmetry in P2P lending markets. / The full-text of this article will be released for public view at the end of the publisher embargo on 22 June 2025.

Face à la multiplication et la complexité croissante des objectifs assignées à l'agriculture, les méthodologies de conception et d'évaluation ex ante de systèmes de culture innovants font l'objet d'un effort de recherche très soutenu. Cependant malgré le foisonnement de recherches et de productions d'outils disciplinaires, peu de recherches d'interface ont été entreprises, ce qui limite les possibilités d'évaluations ex ante globales des systèmes innovants, de la conception à l'adoption par les agriculteurs. L'objectif de cette thèse est de contribuer à l'avancée de ces travaux, en proposant une méthode transdisciplinaire d'évaluation ex ante de systèmes de culture innovants basée sur la combinaison d'outils de modélisation issus de l'agronomie et de l'économie. A partir d'une analyse de la littérature actuelle et de ses forces et faiblesses, nous construisons une méthode originale qui se décompose en 4 étapes : i) modélisation de la diversité des exploitations et prototypage de systèmes innovants plus durables, ii) utilisation d'un modèle de culture pour simuler le fonctionnement biophysique des innovations dans les types d'exploitations, iii) évaluation des impacts de l'adoption sur le fonctionnement et les performances des types d'exploitation à l'aide d'un modèle bioéconomique d'exploitation, iv) modélisation ex ante de l'adoption par les planteurs à l'aide d'un modèle économétrique. La méthode est ensuite appliquée à la conception et à l'évaluation ex ante de prototypes de systèmes de cultures bananiers aux Antilles françaises, qui traversent actuellement une crise socio-économique et environnementale sévère. L'application de la première étape de la méthode a permis d'identifier 6 types d'exploitations très contrastés avec des problèmes de durabilité se déclinant différemment et de mettre au point 16 prototypes de systèmes innovants impliquant plante de couverture cultivées en association ou en rotation, nouvelles variétés de bananiers, et réduction de l'usage des intrants chimiques. La deuxième étape a montré que les performances agronomiques des prototypes peuvent varier considérablement d'un type d'exploitation à un autre, et que certains systèmes semblent très prometteurs sur le plan agronomique et environnemental. Cependant les modélisations réalisées en étape 3 et 4 montrent que d'une part, des innovations performantes à la parcelle peuvent poser des problèmes de trésorerie et de charge de travail à l'échelle de l'exploitation, et que d'autre part certaines innovations très prometteuses ont pourtant un taux d'adoption faible. Les résultats du modèle économétrique et des simulations réalisées en étapes 2 et 3 permettent alors de définir un ensemble de propositions d'action à destinations des acteurs de l'innovation et du développement en vue de maximiser les chances d'adoption de systèmes plus durables. Le dernier chapitre de cette thèse revient sur les forces et les faiblesses de la méthode et souligne sa généricité potentielle qui devrait donc permettre d'étendre son application à d'autres contextes afin d'assurer une meilleure adéquation entre les innovations produites par la recherche agronomique et les attentes des agriculteurs et de la société.

En France, les rénovations énergétiques en résidentiel, et ceci tout particulièrement pour les maisons individuelles, font peu l'objet après réalisation d'une évaluation ex-post permettant de quantifier la performance atteinte.Cette thèse se propose donc d'effectuer une évaluation ex-post de l'efficacité de solutions de rénovation énergétique en résidentiel, à partir de données (environ 100 cas par échantillon étudié) provenant d'enquêtes menées auprès de ménages, propriétaires occupants de maison individuelle, ayant participé à des opérations de maîtrise de la demande en énergie conduites à l'échelle régionale dans le nord-est et le sud-est de la France. Une approche statistique tant descriptive que de modélisation est principalement employée pour aborder ce travail.Le premier volet de l'évaluation ex-post consiste en une quantification des économies unitaires obtenues associée à un calcul d'incertitude. Pour chacune des opérations, la modélisation statistique de la consommation énergétique après travaux permet l'étude de l'influence des actions elles-mêmes mais aussi de certains facteurs tels que le changement de la gestion du chauffage ou l'utilisation après travaux de la climatisation.Le second volet de cette évaluation ex-post a pour but d'identifier les causes des écarts entre les consommations observées et celles simulées par un modèle de calcul ex-ante (dit d'ingénieur). Ainsi, nous étudions l'évolution des écarts des états avant à après travaux. Tout d'abord, une quantification et une modélisation statistique des écarts en situation avant travaux est réalisée. Puis, les écarts en situation après travaux sont à leur tour quantifiés et modélisés statistiquement en intégrant notamment l'erreur commise initialement (avant travaux). Les différences entre économies d'énergie observées et simulées sont également étudiées.Enfin, dans la dernière partie de la thèse, sur la base des sources d'écart identifiées, nous proposons des pistes de perfectionnement du modèle de calcul d'ingénieur utilisé. Plus largement, à partir d'un retour critique quant aux limites des modèles statistiques établis pour étudier les causes des écarts, des pistes sont avancées pour permettre de les améliorer. / In France, ex-post evaluations of energy retrofits in residential buildings, allowing to quantify the performance achieved, are rarely realized, particularly for the dwelling houses.This thesis is an ex-post evaluation of energy efficiency measures for retrofit in residential buildings from surveys data (around 100 cases by studied sample) of households, house owners, that participated in regional energy efficiency operations (northeast and southeast of France). This work is mainly tackled by descriptive statistics and statistical models.The first part of the ex-post evaluation is a quantification of unitary energy savings associated to an uncertainty assessment. For the two operations, a statistical model of energy consumption after retrofitting studies the effect of energy efficiency measures and also the effects of factors as space heating management modification or air conditioning use after refurbishment.The second part of the ex-post evaluation has for aim to identify the sources of gaps between observed consumptions and ones simulated by an ex-ante engineering model. Thus, we study gaps evolution from before retrofitting to after retrofitting situations. In the first time, we realise a quantification and a statistical modelling of gaps before retrofitting. Then, we repeat the method for gaps after retrofitting, in taking into account gap before retrofitting in the statistical model. Deviations between observed energy savings and calculated ones are also studied.In the last part of the thesis, we propose some improvements of the engineering model on the base of the gaps sources identified. From a critical analysis of statistical models realised to study gaps, some propositions are did to improve them.

Die sehr negativen Prognosen zur Beschäftigungswirkung der Einführung des Mindestlohns in Deutschland hätten sich nicht bewahrheitet, schrieben Oliver Bruttel, Arne Baumann und Matthias Dütsch in den PWP 3/2019. Andreas Knabe, Ronnie Schöb und Marcel Thum halten dem in diesem Beitrag entgegen, dass sich Prognosen und tatsächliche Beschäftigungswirkungen des Mindestlohns gar nicht wesentlich unterschieden. Zum einen hätten sich die Beschäftigungsverluste bisher stark in einer Reduktion der Zahl der Arbeitsstunden je Beschäftigten niedergeschlagen. Zum anderen erhielten weiterhin viele Arbeitnehmer weniger als den Mindestlohn, was die bislang messbaren negativen Beschäftigungswirkungen mindere.

The study investigates the presence of the momentum effect in the Swedish stock market by utilizing both cross-sectional introduced by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) and time-series momentum introduced by Moskowtozt et al. (2011). The period of analysis is between 1998 to 2022. Additionally, the study compares the performance of these two momentum strategies by creating portfolios with varying lookback and holding periods. However, the primary focus is on the strategy with a 12-month lookback and a 1-month holding period. The results indicate that both momentum strategies generated positive returns over the analyzed period. However, time-series momentum was more effective for longer lookback periods, while cross-sectional momentum was more effective for shorter periods. Nevertheless, none of the findings for either momentum strategy were statistically significant in the Swedish stock market. / Syftet med denna studie är att studera lönsamheten för momentumstrategier på den svenska marknaden för perioden januari 1998 till december 2022, med hjälp av de cross-sectional och time-series momentum som introducerades av Jegadeesh och Titman (1993) och Moskowitz et al. 2011), respektive. Resultaten visar att momentumstrategier har positiv avkastning på den svenska marknaden, men resultaten är inte statistiskt signifikanta. Under den tidsperiod under vilken momentumstrategier testades visade cross-sectional momentum bättre resultat under kortare utvärderingsperioder jämfört med time-series momentum, som presterade bättre under längre utvärderingsperioder. Det är dock värt att notera att även om momentumportföljers positiva avkastning inte är statistiskt signifikanta, kan de fortfarande vara fördelaktiga för avkastningssökande investerare. Dessutom fann studien att den positiva avkastningen inte enbart beror på momentumfaktorn utan kan också bero på portföljens exponering mot Fama French SMB-faktorn.

Bakgrund: Marknadens riskpremie kan förklaras som den förväntade avkastning en investerare kräver för att acceptera en viss risk. Hur riskpremien skall bestämmas har stått i fokus för omfattande debatter de senaste åren men fortfarande har ingen ultimat lösning infunnit sig. Det finns två huvudsakliga tillvägagångssätt för att uppskatta riskpremien. Det ena att använda historisk data över aktieutvecklingen och därefter förvänta sig att en framtida utveckling kommer att vara likvärdig. Den andra är att göra uppskattningar av den framtida utvecklingen, så som framtida utdelningar, framtida vinster, BNP och inflation och därifrån göra en uppskattning utav riskpremien. Att använda sig av historiska värden har tidigare varit en accepterad metod både i den akademiska och finansiella värden men då den på senare tid har mötts av omfattande kritik, har modeller baserade på uppskattningar av framtiden vuxit sig starkare. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att ge en djupgående beskrivning av hur svenska finansiella företag uppskattar och hanterar riskpremium för den svenska aktiemarknaden. Därigenom fanns en avsikt att studera vilken metod som främst användes, hur viktigt riskpremium i form av ett investeringsinstrument var, och morgondagens betydelse av riskpremium. Metod: Författarna använde sig av en kvalitativ metod, där det empiriska materialet samlades in med hjälp av personliga intervjuer. Intervjufrågor av öppen karaktär skickades ut till respondenterna i förväg, och intervjuerna ägde därefter rum i Stockholm och Göteborg. I den teoretiska referensramen användes både så kallad primär och sekundär litteratur för att kunna redogöra en övergripande bild av problemområdet. Den primära litteraturen, som framförallt ligger till grund för kapitel tre, sågs extra viktig att inkludera då den möjliggjorde en minskad subjektivitet som annars hade riskerat att belasta uppsatsen. Resultat: Resultaten visade en varierad syn mellan respondenterna där vissa ansåg att riskpremien hade ringa betydelse och andra att det var en mycket viktig variabel. Överlag fanns det dock ett ökat intresse de senaste åren. Även val av metod varierade och vare sig historisk data eller framtida uppskattningar kunde sägas ha ett övertag bland användarna. Avslutningsvis såg författarna ett ökat intresse för de ingående variablerna i modeller som baseras på framtida förväntade värden och kunde därav visa att den framtida debatten sannolikt kommer att behandla vilka variabler som bör inkluderas i denna typ av modeller och hur de bör uppskattas.