Environmental simulation models have been playing a key role in civil and environmental engineering decision making processes for decades. The utility of an environmental model depends on how well the model is structured and calibrated. Model calibration is typically in an automated form where the simulation model is linked to a search mechanism (e.g., an optimization algorithm) such that the search mechanism iteratively generates many parameter sets (e.g., thousands of parameter sets) and evaluates them through running the model in an attempt to minimize differences between observed data and corresponding model outputs. The challenge rises when the environmental model is computationally intensive to run (with run-times of minutes to hours, for example) as then any automatic calibration attempt would impose a large computational burden. Such a challenge may make the model users accept sub-optimal solutions and not achieve the best model performance. The objective of this thesis is to develop innovative strategies to circumvent the computational burden associated with automatic calibration of computationally intensive environmental models. The first main contribution of this thesis is developing a strategy called “deterministic model preemption” which opportunistically evades unnecessary model evaluations in the course of a calibration experiment and can save a significant portion of the computational budget (even as much as 90% in some cases). Model preemption monitors the intermediate simulation results while the model is running and terminates (i.e., pre-empts) the simulation early if it recognizes that further running the model would not guide the search mechanism. This strategy is applicable to a range of automatic calibration algorithms (i.e., search mechanisms) and is deterministic in that it leads to exactly the same calibration results as when preemption is not applied. One other main contribution of this thesis is developing and utilizing the concept of “surrogate data” which is basically a reasonably small but representative proportion of a full set of calibration data. This concept is inspired by the existing surrogate modelling strategies where a surrogate model (also called a metamodel) is developed and utilized as a fast-to-run substitute of an original computationally intensive model. A framework is developed to efficiently calibrate hydrologic models to the full set of calibration data while running the original model only on surrogate data for the majority of candidate parameter sets, a strategy which leads to considerable computational saving. To this end, mapping relationships are developed to approximate the model performance on the full data based on the model performance on surrogate data. This framework can be applicable to the calibration of any environmental model where appropriate surrogate data and mapping relationships can be identified. As another main contribution, this thesis critically reviews and evaluates the large body of literature on surrogate modelling strategies from various disciplines as they are the most commonly used methods to relieve the computational burden associated with computationally intensive simulation models. To reliably evaluate these strategies, a comparative assessment and benchmarking framework is developed which presents a clear computational budget dependent definition for the success/failure of surrogate modelling strategies. Two large families of surrogate modelling strategies are critically scrutinized and evaluated: “response surface surrogate” modelling which involves statistical or data–driven function approximation techniques (e.g., kriging, radial basis functions, and neural networks) and “lower-fidelity physically-based surrogate” modelling strategies which develop and utilize simplified models of the original system (e.g., a groundwater model with a coarse mesh). This thesis raises fundamental concerns about response surface surrogate modelling and demonstrates that, although they might be less efficient, lower-fidelity physically-based surrogates are generally more reliable as they to-some-extent preserve the physics involved in the original model. Five different surface water and groundwater models are used across this thesis to test the performance of the developed strategies and elaborate the discussions. However, the strategies developed are typically simulation-model-independent and can be applied to the calibration of any computationally intensive simulation model that has the required characteristics. This thesis leaves the reader with a suite of strategies for efficient calibration of computationally intensive environmental models while providing some guidance on how to select, implement, and evaluate the appropriate strategy for a given environmental model calibration problem.

New helicopter rotor designs are desired that offer increased efficiency, reduced vibration, and reduced noise. This problem is multidisciplinary, requiring knowledge of structural dynamics, aerodynamics, and aeroacoustics. Rotor optimization requires achieving multiple, often conflicting objectives. There is no longer a single optimum but rather an optimal trade-off space, the Pareto Frontier. Rotor Designers in industry need methods that allow the most accurate simulation tools available to search for Pareto designs. Computer simulation and optimization of rotors have been advanced by the development of "comprehensive" rotorcraft analysis tools. These tools perform aeroelastic analysis using Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD). Though useful in optimization, these tools lack built-in high fidelity aerodynamic models. The most accurate rotor simulations utilize Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) coupled to the CSD of a comprehensive code, but are generally considered too time consuming where numerous simulations are required like rotor optimization. An approach is needed where high fidelity CFD/CSD simulation can be routinely used in design optimization. This thesis documents the development of physics based rotor simulation frameworks. A low fidelity model uses a comprehensive code with simplified aerodynamics. A high fidelity model uses a parallel processor capable CFD/CSD methodology. Both frameworks include an aeroacoustic simulation for prediction of noise. A synergistic process is developed that uses both frameworks together to build approximate models of important high fidelity metrics as functions of certain design variables. To test this process, a 4-bladed hingeless rotor model is used as a baseline. The design variables investigated include tip geometry and spanwise twist. Approximation models are built for high fidelity metrics related to rotor efficiency and vibration. Optimization using the approximation models found the designs having maximum rotor efficiency and minimum vibration. Various Pareto generation methods are used to find frontier designs between these two anchor designs. The Pareto anchors are tested in the high fidelity simulation and shown to be good designs, providing evidence that the process has merit. Ultimately, this process can be utilized by industry rotor designers with their existing tools to bring high fidelity analysis into the preliminary design stage of rotors.

Computational models and simulations are essential system design tools that allow for improved decision making and cost reductions during all phases of the design process. However, the most accurate models are often computationally expensive and can therefore only be used sporadically. Consequently, designers are often forced to choose between exploring many design alternatives with less accurate, inexpensive models and evaluating fewer alternatives with the most accurate models. To achieve both broad exploration of the alternatives and accurate determination of the best alternative with reasonable costs incurred, surrogate modeling and variable accuracy modeling are used widely. A surrogate model is a mathematically tractable approximation of a more expensive model based on a limited sampling of that model, while variable accuracy modeling involves a collection of different models of the same system with different accuracies and computational costs. As compared to using only very accurate and expensive models, designers can determine the best solutions more efficiently using surrogate and variable accuracy models because obviously poor solutions can be eliminated inexpensively using only the less expensive, less accurate models. The most accurate models are then reserved for discerning the best solution from the set of good solutions. In this thesis, a Value-Based Global Optimization (VGO) algorithm is introduced. The algorithm uses kriging-like surrogate models and a sequential sampling strategy based on Value of Information (VoI) to optimize an objective characterized by multiple analysis models with different accuracies. It builds on two primary research contributions. The first is a novel surrogate modeling method that accommodates data from any number of analysis models with different accuracies and costs. The second contribution is the use of Value of Information (VoI) as a new metric for guiding the sequential sampling process for global optimization. In this manner, the cost of further analysis is explicitly taken into account during the optimization process. Results characterizing the algorithm show that VGO outperforms Efficient Global Optimization (EGO), a similar global optimization algorithm that is considered to be the current state of the art. It is shown that when cost is taken into account in the final utility, VGO achieves a higher utility than EGO with statistical significance. In further experiments, it is shown that VGO can be successfully applied to higher dimensional problems as well as practical engineering design examples.

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops spp.) are a widely studied species in marine habitats, however, information on estuarine populations in Australia is very limited. To fully understand the importance of estuaries as habitats for dolphins there needs to be clear quantitative data on dolphin populations and their habitat use in estuaries. This study provides the first published data on Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) abundance estimates, site fidelity, individual ranging patterns, habitat use, flood impacts and sexual segregation patterns over a 3- year period in the Clarence River (CR) and Richmond River (RR) estuaries in northern New South Wales, Australia.The results indicate that, at present, the CR estuary is sustaining a larger dolphin community with a predominantly resident population compared to the RR estuary, which supports a smaller community with lower site fidelity. The CR estuary dolphin abundance estimate of 71 (62-81 95% CI, CV = 0.07) is more than twice the size of the RR estuary abundance estimate of 34 (19- 49 95% CI, CV = 0.23). Differences in site fidelity were observed between the estuaries with 60% and 37% of identified dolphins determined as residents, 26% and 21% as occasional visitors, and 14% and 42% as transients for the CR and RR, respectively. Resource partitioning was apparent in both estuaries with the mean distance resident dolphins were found upstream from the River mouth being greater than for the occasional visitors and transients.Tursiops aduncus was seen all year round in the CR and RR estuaries, with peak sightings occurring in spring at both sites. In the CR the dolphin population showed consistent seasonal fluctuations, whereas this did not occur in the RR population. In the CR the largest spatial distribution of dolphins in the estuary was observed in spring and winter, while in summer they were primarily restricted to the main estuary channel. Different behaviours that were observed; feeding, socialising, travelling, and milling and resting, were found to be influenced by season, tidal phase and tidal range. In both estuaries the core habitat areas used by the population for feeding consisted of areas with considerable slope near the edge of tidal sand banks, adjacent to deeper channels at the entrances of canals, creeks or artificial breakwalls. In addition, the core habitat areas used by the population for milling and resting behaviour in both estuaries occurred in shallow, sheltered areas, often associated with seagrass beds. Socialising occurred more frequently in the CR throughout most of the deeper waters of the estuary, whereas in the RR it was primarily restricted to a small area of medium depth in the estuary.The major determinant of T. aduncus occupancy in the two estuaries was the flood events that occurred, which resulted in the dolphins abandoning the estuary. The mean predicted probabilities for sighting dolphins during non-flood periods were 0.87 and 0.71, during a flood 0.21 and 0.04, and during a post-flood recovery period 0.83 and 0.80 in the CR and RR, respectively. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) showed that when the dolphins were absent from the estuaries, three components were extracted from the water quality parameters in the CR, and two components in the RR. High loadings from the PCA were associated with the changing salinity, turbidity, pH, dissolved oxygen and temperature associated with the flood events. The return of the dolphins to the estuary following a flood depended on the length and severity of the flood event, but generally the dolphins seemed to prefer waters with salinity levels above 29 ‰. This could be associated with higher salinities being important for their physiological health, or because their prey returned to the estuaries during these higher salinity conditions, more likely a combination of both of these factors.Sexual segregation patterns were observed in T. aduncus populations with mixed gender and female groups mainly recorded in the CR, whereas in the RR female groups dominated the estuary. In the CR, significant differences occurred in sightings between the mixed and female groups in relation to water depth and behaviour. Mixed gender groups were sighted predominantly in deeper water and were involved in social behaviour including sexual behaviour and male herding of females. In contrast, the female groups were observed across all water depths, predominately feeding and also participating in more milling and resting behaviours.The high occurrence of aggressive herding behaviour by males in the CR was significantly different at varying depths, tides and seasons, occurring more often in deeper water, at higher tides and in non-breeding seasons. Female groups were found to utilise the small, shallow tributaries and travel for longer distances up these smaller tributaries than the mixed groups, which were concentrated in the deeper main channel of the estuary.The deeper water of the channels may facilitate the males in herding the females, while the female groups’ habitat selection of shallow estuary areas may provide a sanctuary from aggressive males, access to suitable prey items or prey density for mothers and their calves, or a combination of these factors.This study has provided the first detailed research on T. aduncus dolphin population dynamics, habitat use, occupancy and sexual segregation patterns in two Australian subtropical estuaries. To ensure the long-term survival of both of these dolphin populations, management of future increased anthropogenic disturbances from boat traffic, pollution, dolphin watching, industrial or urban development, over-fishing and habitat degradation of the catchment is needed. Good quality water conditions, the protection of the core feeding areas and small shallow tributaries for females and their calves, and sheltered areas for resting behaviour all need to be maintained for the continued conservation of these important dolphin populations.

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops spp.) are a widely studied species in marine habitats, however, information on estuarine populations in Australia is very limited. To fully understand the importance of estuaries as habitats for dolphins there needs to be clear quantitative data on dolphin populations and their habitat use in estuaries. This study provides the first published data on Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) abundance estimates, site fidelity, individual ranging patterns, habitat use, flood impacts and sexual segregation patterns over a 3- year period in the Clarence River (CR) and Richmond River (RR) estuaries in northern New South Wales, Australia.The results indicate that, at present, the CR estuary is sustaining a larger dolphin community with a predominantly resident population compared to the RR estuary, which supports a smaller community with lower site fidelity. The CR estuary dolphin abundance estimate of 71 (62-81 95% CI, CV = 0.07) is more than twice the size of the RR estuary abundance estimate of 34 (19- 49 95% CI, CV = 0.23). Differences in site fidelity were observed between the estuaries with 60% and 37% of identified dolphins determined as residents, 26% and 21% as occasional visitors, and 14% and 42% as transients for the CR and RR, respectively. Resource partitioning was apparent in both estuaries with the mean distance resident dolphins were found upstream from the River mouth being greater than for the occasional visitors and transients.Tursiops aduncus was seen all year round in the CR and RR estuaries, with peak sightings occurring in spring at both sites. In the CR the dolphin population showed consistent seasonal fluctuations, whereas this did not occur in the RR population. In the CR the largest spatial distribution of dolphins in the estuary was observed in spring and winter, while in summer they were primarily restricted to the main estuary channel. Different behaviours that were observed; feeding, socialising, travelling, and milling and resting, were found to be influenced by season, tidal phase and tidal range. In both estuaries the core habitat areas used by the population for feeding consisted of areas with considerable slope near the edge of tidal sand banks, adjacent to deeper channels at the entrances of canals, creeks or artificial breakwalls. In addition, the core habitat areas used by the population for milling and resting behaviour in both estuaries occurred in shallow, sheltered areas, often associated with seagrass beds. Socialising occurred more frequently in the CR throughout most of the deeper waters of the estuary, whereas in the RR it was primarily restricted to a small area of medium depth in the estuary.The major determinant of T. aduncus occupancy in the two estuaries was the flood events that occurred, which resulted in the dolphins abandoning the estuary. The mean predicted probabilities for sighting dolphins during non-flood periods were 0.87 and 0.71, during a flood 0.21 and 0.04, and during a post-flood recovery period 0.83 and 0.80 in the CR and RR, respectively. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) showed that when the dolphins were absent from the estuaries, three components were extracted from the water quality parameters in the CR, and two components in the RR. High loadings from the PCA were associated with the changing salinity, turbidity, pH, dissolved oxygen and temperature associated with the flood events. The return of the dolphins to the estuary following a flood depended on the length and severity of the flood event, but generally the dolphins seemed to prefer waters with salinity levels above 29 ‰. This could be associated with higher salinities being important for their physiological health, or because their prey returned to the estuaries during these higher salinity conditions, more likely a combination of both of these factors.Sexual segregation patterns were observed in T. aduncus populations with mixed gender and female groups mainly recorded in the CR, whereas in the RR female groups dominated the estuary. In the CR, significant differences occurred in sightings between the mixed and female groups in relation to water depth and behaviour. Mixed gender groups were sighted predominantly in deeper water and were involved in social behaviour including sexual behaviour and male herding of females. In contrast, the female groups were observed across all water depths, predominately feeding and also participating in more milling and resting behaviours.The high occurrence of aggressive herding behaviour by males in the CR was significantly different at varying depths, tides and seasons, occurring more often in deeper water, at higher tides and in non-breeding seasons. Female groups were found to utilise the small, shallow tributaries and travel for longer distances up these smaller tributaries than the mixed groups, which were concentrated in the deeper main channel of the estuary.The deeper water of the channels may facilitate the males in herding the females, while the female groups’ habitat selection of shallow estuary areas may provide a sanctuary from aggressive males, access to suitable prey items or prey density for mothers and their calves, or a combination of these factors.This study has provided the first detailed research on T. aduncus dolphin population dynamics, habitat use, occupancy and sexual segregation patterns in two Australian subtropical estuaries. To ensure the long-term survival of both of these dolphin populations, management of future increased anthropogenic disturbances from boat traffic, pollution, dolphin watching, industrial or urban development, over-fishing and habitat degradation of the catchment is needed. Good quality water conditions, the protection of the core feeding areas and small shallow tributaries for females and their calves, and sheltered areas for resting behaviour all need to be maintained for the continued conservation of these important dolphin populations.

Formulations of optimization under uncertainty (OUU) commonly used in aerospace design—those based on treating statistical moments of the quantity of interest (QOI) as separate objectives—can result in stochastically dominated designs. A stochastically dominated design is undesirable, because it is less likely than another design to achieve a QOI at least as good as a given value, for any given value. As a remedy to this limitation for the multi-objective formulation of moments, a novel OUU formulation is proposed—dominance optimization. This formulation seeks a set of solutions and makes use of global optimizers, so is useful for early stages of the design process when exploration of design space is important. Similarly, to address this limitation for the single-objective formulation of moments (combining moments via a weighted sum), a second novel formulation is proposed—horsetail matching. This formulation can make use of gradient- based local optimizers, so is useful for later stages of the design process when exploitation of a region of design space is important. Additionally, horsetail matching extends straightforwardly to different representations of uncertainty, and is flexible enough to emulate several existing OUU formulations. Existing multi-fidelity methods for OUU are not compatible with these novel formulations, so one such method—information reuse—is generalized to be compatible with these and other formulations. The proposed formulations, along with generalized information reuse, are compared to their most comparable equivalent in the current state-of-the-art on practical design problems: transonic aerofoil design, coupled aero-structural wing design, high-fidelity 3D wing design, and acoustic horn shape design. Finally, the two novel formulations are combined in a two-step design process, which is used to obtain a robust design in a challenging version of the acoustic horn design problem. Dominance optimization is given half the computational budget for exploration; then horsetail matching is given the other half for exploitation. Using exactly the same computational budget as a moment-based approach, the design obtained using the novel formulations is 95% more likely to achieve a better QOI than the best value achievable by the moment-based design.

No description available.

p. 1 - 96 / Submitted by Santiago Fabio (fabio.ssantiago@hotmail.com) on 2013-01-24T17:24:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2222.pdf: 1054625 bytes, checksum: 5cd72f02551e43e4453e50ecba7c96b2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-01-24T17:24:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2222.pdf: 1054625 bytes, checksum: 5cd72f02551e43e4453e50ecba7c96b2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 / A pesquisa teve como objetivo investigar como ocorre o comportamento de compra de cerveja junto ao público pós-graduando em administração na cidade de Salvador (Ba). A hipótese que norteou esta dissertação é de que a fidelidade à marca depende da situação de uso. Para isto, foi realizada uma pesquisa de campo nas quatro instituições de ensino superior (IES) que mais oferecem cursos de pós-graduação na área de Administração, com a aplicação de um questionário. Os entrevistados foram expostos a quatro tipos de situações de usos diferentes (distribuídos em consumo cotidiano e consumo em situações especiais). Identificou-se que um número significativo de entrevistados escolheu marcas diferentes a depender destas situações, o que traz argumentos a favor da hipótese principal deste trabalho. / Salvador

Text in English / Health Studies / M.A. (Nursing Science)

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-03T12:30:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ana Claudia Gusso.pdf: 2568093 bytes, checksum: 5f0773271441de6b85f626d130007105 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-03-03 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / This research brings into evidence both the use of internal, directed communication instruments and the use of public relations actions and relationship marketing inside the historic evangelical churches. The aim is to check if those instruments have any relation to the loss or retention of members in those churches and in their numerical growth in the face of a new religious configuration, where fidelity is getting harder to get every day. This study emphasizes the importance of internal communication and marketing communi cation strategies used inside the historic churches as an aid to the so called word of mouth marketing. In order to do this research, an analysis of the four historic churches in Curitiba with the greatest number of members was conducted. Those churches are the Baptist, the Lutheran, the Presbyterian and the Methodist. The study was carried on by participating observation research, analysis of various kinds of materials, interviews with church leaders and a quantitative research which involved the members and the visitors of the four churches. By using a structured questionnaire, this study analyzed the behavior of these members face to the internal directed communication means used in the churches and the relationships that happen inside them, both between their members and between the members and their leaders.(AU) / Esta pesquisa evidencia o uso de instrumentos de comunicação interna e dirigida e de ações de relações públicas e marketing de relacionamento dentro das igrejas evangélicas históricas. Também enfatiza a importância da comunicação interna e das estratégias de comunicação mercadológicas utilizadas dentro das igrejas inclusive com o uso do marketing boca a boca. Para a realização desta pesquisa foi feito um recorte das quatro maiores igrejas evangélicas históricas, em número de membros, situadas na cidade de Curitiba: Batista, Luterana, Presbiteriana e Metodista. O estudo foi realizado por meio de pesquisas de observação participante, análise de materiais diversos, entrevista com os líderes e uma pesquisa de campo, quantitativa, envolvendo os membros e freqüentadores das igrejas. Com o auxilio de um questionário estruturado foram analisados: 1) o comportamento dos membros e freqüentadores diante dos instrumentos de comunicação interna e dirigida que estão sendo utilizados e percebidos; e 2) os relacionamentos dentro da igreja, tanto entre membros quanto entre estes e seus líderes. A pesquisa concluiu que estes instrumentos de comunicação interna possuem relação com a retenção, perda e crescimento numérico de membros nas igrejas pesquisadas, frente a uma nova configuração religiosa onde a fidelização está cada vez mais difícil de ser alcançada.(AU)